INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9641, 1, '2017-07-01 04:29:40', '2017-07-01 09:29:40', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf ever anyone says to you that FX trading is boring and un-eventful just remind them of the shenanigans that went on last week.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, ECB President and the “sources” my arse saying that the markets mis-judged his comments. What a load of bollocks.\r\n\r\nMark Carney the governor of the BOE doing what he does best “Flip-Flopping and finally, last but not least…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz governor of the BOC announcing that the BOC are en route to change policy away from supportive to hawkish by possibly looking to raise Canadian interest rates before the end of 2017 (I would say if oil drops through $40.00 that move could be delayed).\r\n\r\nThe three flutes named above have suddenly (coordinated?) turned from GAME KEEPERS to POACHERS vis-a-vis their interest rate policies.\r\n\r\nI will return to this matter later in the blog with the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nGetting back into the groove now, the PREMIUM SERVICE added about 300 pips last week and I am now back in the mode of CORE POSITIONS and stacking up LIMIT ORDERS.\r\n\r\nHaving said that, it is hard trading at the moment; one must remember that it is summer and we have been blessed with a few moves that may be over-played, but nonetheless have provided some great moves. If you are a cautious and conservative trader like me, you are probably kicking yourself over a few hundred pips extra you could have gained had you not exited positions too early.\r\n\r\nRemember; no one should ever feel guilty about banking pips and few $$$. It’s a much better feeling the losing $$$. Like most of you I guess, we still look at the woulda, coulda and shoulda trades. It’s normal… but just move on.\r\n\r\nVery comfortable now in my new surroundings in Nova Scotia. It’s a great spot and much better for me trading in a bright open office with a view rather than the darkened room, with a huge fecking tree blocking out most of the natural light that I had previously in Quebec. These subtle differences do make a difference.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt would be very easy to repeat myself three or four times in various sections of the blog this week. It will be a check on the state of my mental health to see if I can avoid this!\r\n\r\nIt was a light week with regards to Economic data but holy fuck the central bank governors and presidents more than made up for that.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL and USD/CAD:\r\n\r\nPicture this: - An old man every morning switching on his machines and looking at the screens swearing at himself, “FFS why the feck I am not short this fecking pair” … this was me all week and guess what, I’ll still be doing it next week at this rate.As I mentioned in last week’s LIVE WEBINAR (without getting on my soapbox), I predicted OIL lower to about $42.00 then a small bounce then a test of $40.00. So far it’s playing out.\r\n\r\nI need to get my ass in gear and have a USD/CAD short trade set up in position.\r\n\r\nOIL is a dirty old commodity and OPEC are an out of date collection of countries that lie to each other and the world about production because of pure greed. As the world becomes less and less reliant on middle eastern OIL the effectiveness of what OPEC does or says gets less and less.\r\n\r\nI wish that that I could come down off that fence and say what I really mean.\r\n\r\nPutting my attempt at humour to one side, this is all about pure, basic and very simple Economic SUPPLY AND DEMAND.\r\n\r\nThis highly speculative market has lost its edge of late as many hedge funds who were big participants in the OIL markets are no longer around. The ability to push the price around is still there but the logic (did I actually use that word in association with OIL?) has long gone.\r\n\r\nSo basically, this is a SUPPLY AND DEMAND call and nothing else. I think that this message is hitting home with a bit more bite now.\r\n\r\nBack to the CAD…\r\n\r\nI am looking for mid 1.32’s for an entry short if possible but this looks unlikely if data continues to come in line or beat expectations.  As long as I am in short prior to the next BOC meeting at this stage these are my thoughts.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DRAGHI and the ECB:\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God. What a fecking gang of unprofessional idiots. They must have all been acting as the scarecrow from the wizard of Oz. Not a damn brain between the lot of them.“Unnamed sources” basically the ECB, shit themselves because the single currency strengthened, basically it leapt up like a salmon, and then they tell us a day later that we’re the fecking numpties as we misinterpreted Draghi’s speech. Bollocks basically double bollocks.\r\n\r\nThe FX market was on steroids for the day of Draghi’s speech (Tuesday) and the following day calamity reigned for many retail traders still long. As the “unnamed sources” sound-byte hit the wires everything EUR dropped 100-200 pips in an instant. I’d say that hurt a lot of people because the fills would have been poor, especially with the likes of FXCM! Did they do what they usually do in situations like this and just lock out traders?\r\n\r\nOver the rest of Wednesday the single currency reversed back to the previous day levels. Helter-skelter day!</li>\r\n 	<li>THE ECB ECONOMIC FORUM (Sintra, Portugal)\r\n\r\nDraghi was there as host, along with his three amigos, Carney (BOE), Poloz (BOC) and Kuroda (BOJ).This was where “Carney the flip-flopper” came out of his closet to announce that he would be looking to raise after all… what a “plonker”.\r\n\r\nPoloz confirmed what he stated earlier on CNBC about removing accommodation from the BOC and to start looking to raise interest rates.\r\n\r\nKuroda, apart from needing to spend a few $$$ on dental work, announced nada, nothing new. The BOJ now remains the only central bank in true dovish, accommodative mode.\r\n\r\nMore about this topic later.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN:\r\n\r\nOn Tuesday I cut out of trades early after Draghi’s first speech ahead of Janet Yellen’s diary date.FFS, it was granny tells a fecking story around the fireside….\r\n\r\nI cut profitable trades to be sensible for “Storytime with Janet”. Never have I been so disappointed. No policies, no outlook, no guessing and no gossip; just stories about Ben and Merv “the swerve”.</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:\r\n\r\nThe negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>“TRUMP”\r\n\r\nAs diplomatically as possible:This week’s tweet highlight, or rather lowlight…\r\n\r\nOn Thursday, he tweeted about someone from a TV station who was bleeding from a face-lift who was invited to Mar a Lago, but TRUMP would not meet her for an interview because she was bleeding from the surgery…WTF.\r\n\r\nThis is the leader of the “FREE WORLD” the most powerful man in the world.\r\n\r\nMost of the world used to laugh at the antics of the US pre-TRUMP and most Americans could not understand why. With TRUMP in office and tweets like this, God knows what the thoughts are now. Even I find this difficult to comment on.\r\n\r\nApart from the fact that TRUMP behaves like a spoilt child and NOT a 70-year-old adult.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am canceling the LIVE WEBINARS for the summer and will start up again in the fall/autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9617\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017-953x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"953\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nQuite a bit scheduled this week. This makes a change from recent weeks and a few items stand out for me.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The pick of the week for most traders but NOT me is Friday’s Non-Farm payroll numbers. I think I have had more luck on the lottery lately… at least with the lottery you stand a chance of winning.As usual all your family favourites will be dragged onto CNBC, BLOOMBERG and FOX BUSINESS to talk shite about the numbers no one can predict. Frankly given the fact the US department of statistics only give us approximations because previous numbers are altered up and down, in fact previous, previous numbers are altered… it’s all rather a game to stay away from in my opinion. Paint a wall, take out your significant other, mow the lawn or just pick yer nose it’s better than the madness of NFP day.Prior to NFP we have ADP jobs data, no real help for NFP as last months numbers showed. The FOMC meeting minutes should be interesting to see how hawkish the FED really are. Is it all fur coat and no knickers, we should find out Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: A plethora of PMi data. Services and Construction should be strong but Manufacturing maybe a bit below. All are expected to be over 50.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: The RBA have a rate statement announcement plus we have Retail sales and a Trade balance number to look forward to. I am getting excited just thinking about these news items. I am well hedged the AUD at the moment so I couldn’t give a rats hairy arse what way the numbers go.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Stephen Poloz (BOC Governor), will be looking closely at the Trade balance and Jobs data no doubt with a BOC interest rate decision up very soon.Personally, given the importance of OIL to the CAD economy and commodities in general, I think he will have more than just one eye on WTi.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9618\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017-1024x827.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"827\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9633\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9634\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9632\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9635\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9636\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9637\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9638\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Further information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 40% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me.</p>\r\nI will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017. The opportunity to make pips with me is there and as you will see later in this section and on my webpage, I have a special promotion that was due to expire at the end of June, which I have extended until the open of the markets on July 2nd at 5PM EST, called “DOUBLE IT UP”.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, look at my promotion and website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MONTH TO DATE:  +1,203 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +2,405 pips</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>DO YOU WANT TO JOIN THE PREMIUM SERVICE?\r\n</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">There has never been a better time….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This promotion closes Sunday 2nd July at 5PM EST (Extended from June 30th)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE –  SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:\r\n</strong><strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the biggest and I believe the best subscriber promotion that I have ever offered.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">What is <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong> all about…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Basically, from now until 2nd of July at 5PM EST anyone who subscribes to the PREMIUM SERVICE through my “SUBSCRIBE HERE” tab at the top of my welcome page will have their subscription period doubled at no extra cost.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This virtually means that a 10 week subscription will take you right through to the end of 2017.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Confirmation of the <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP” </strong>will be contained in the “welcome on board documents” the accompanies your subscription confirmation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the best and most generous promotion that I have ever offered since starting the PREMIUM SERVICE and I hope that many of you take advantage.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Below are the dates of the DRIVE THRU blog for the remainder of this year, 2018 and 2019.</p>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019-1024x621.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"621\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This can be done as follows: -</p>\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">July’s winner is:\r\ncarlos**********@gmail.com</p>\r\nBy the time this blog is posted Carlos should be up and running with full access.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nI added 292 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for the year last week, it could have been double that. I was spooked out of the Draghi rally on Tuesday on the basis that I wanted to clear most of the decks prior to Yellen’s moment. FFS; what a complete and utter nonevent that was; it really pist me off, a self-glorification of her tenure so far reminiscing her times with Bernanke and sucking up to my buddy Merv “The Swerve” King, BOE governor pre-the flip-flopper.\r\n\r\nThe PIP year to date total is now at 2,405 pips.\r\n\r\nMy rough target per month is 1,250 pips to achieve my annual objective of 10,000 fresh and tasty pips.\r\n\r\nOther points of the overall performance that I look at are as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Drawdowns are higher than usual but within my revised TRADE PLAN accommodating longer-term POSITION TRADES.</li>\r\n 	<li>Profitable trades versus Loss trades ratios are improving. Monthly for June 77% / 33% and YTD now just under my target at 70% / 30%.</li>\r\n 	<li>Performance status in pips versus last year. I am now at 40% of my objective for this time of year…this is improving and a couple of good months will boost this towards 100%.</li>\r\n 	<li>Day trades are still an issue. I have zero confidence in some of the moves and so my TRADE PLAN guidelines by coincidence do not set off alarms. The alarms that do pop–up, frankly, I wouldn’t touch the trades with a barge pole.</li>\r\n 	<li>I have let many trades go by that maybe I should have entered.The point to note here is that I am despite being behind objective NOT taking trades that <u>I AM NOT</u> 100% committed to.</li>\r\n 	<li>Profit per trade is lower than usual but typical for the time of year. One cannot expect in the slow months the same return. I am not comfortable either reviewing position sizing yet as compensation for this.I will review position sizing in the fall / autumn when the liquidity returns…hopefully.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<u>\r\nTRADING ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, it\'s a pain in the arse. The summer is here and I think we have to treat last week as an exception. Fresh ranges and tops have been established, especially in the commodity currencies. The possible excitement ahead is possibly with the S&amp;P. It is up against the 127% Fibonacci extension and it looks toppy. However, I have been saying equities should turn lower for what feels like months and all that happens is that they power higher every time. So; I am not the best at calling the moves in the S&amp;P. But I still think the S&amp;P looks toppy.\r\n\r\nFollowing my GBP dilemma from last week’s DRIVE THRU, I have stayed away from the GBP/USD but I have not resisted the temptation with the cable cross rates. There is more to come. I will be filling my boots on cross rates if my thought process plays out moving forward.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, I am getting ready to load up USD long trades again. Once the overreaction to all the possible rate hikes from the other Central Banks (BOE, ECB and BOC) have died down I think that the USD will re-assert itself once again.\r\n\r\nThe pair that cause me a bit of a headache with my plan moving forward is how the USD/JPY will react to USD moves and equity moves that could be heading lower. I bring this up because the BOJ is the only Central Bank still in the camp of dovishness and accommodation with no let up of accommodation even thought about this year or next!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nI have started with: -\r\n\r\nGBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD long trades. In addition, I am still looking to add to my AUD/NZD long trades again.\r\n\r\nI currently hold trades with NZD/USD and AUD/USD which are under water. I am looking to add more short trades with these pairs as well.\r\n\r\nOver the couple of weeks I will create a spreadsheet to place in this section detailing goals and objectives.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-TRADES-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9619\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-TRADES-02072017-890x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"890\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9620\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-02072017-819x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!</strong>\r\n\r\nLast week will be remembered for several things as far as I am concerned: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Draghi turns hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB tell us he wasn’t hawkish at all.</li>\r\n 	<li>Carney “flip flops” again.</li>\r\n 	<li>Poloz confirms he’s gone hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>Janet’s cozy fire side chat (non-event).</li>\r\n 	<li>Kuroda is not at the party with the other CB Governors.</li>\r\n 	<li>Donald Trump’s bizarre tweets (nothing unusual…I suppose).</li>\r\n 	<li>Rampant Commodity currencies.</li>\r\n 	<li>Theresa May surviving the Queens Speech vote.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThey were all interesting in their own right, but I want to focus on those bullet points at the top of the list.\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago (June 17th) I wrote in this SOAPBOX section about how I thought we as traders probably had a window of about 4/6 months when Central Bank policy divergence between the FED and the other G7 countries Central Banks would give us some strong directional trading opportunities.\r\n\r\nWith what happened last week, I think we can forget that.\r\n\r\nIn true ECB style, President Draghi announces to the world on Tuesday that the EURO AREA recovery was both strengthening and broadening. He added that the Central Bank can aid this covered by adjusting the parameters of it’s policy instruments. He added that the DEFLATION threat was over and reflationary forces were now at play.\r\n\r\nThis announcement was the catalyst for yields to swiftly move higher and this took the EUR/USD up around 150 pips as the single currency broadly strengthened across all EUR linked pairs. The USD (DXY) Index was crushed to hit lows.\r\n\r\nNow, he still had dovish undertones in his speech, but surely to God the ECB could have predicted the response by the markets.\r\n\r\nThe following day…the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away, at least for an hour or so anyway. In true ECB style of days gone by, out comes an announcement (as the EUR/USD was poking above 1.1400), from un-named sources that the markets read Draghi’s previous day’s speech all wrong, “He was Dovish not Hawkish”.\r\n\r\nWhat a load of crap that was. As mentioned earlier in the blog, all EUR related pairs dropped between 100 and 250 pips in an instant. My guess is that many traders were stopped out way beyond their stop loss levels as the move lower was swift with little or no stopping points on the way, one can just imagine the slippage some brokers would have transmitted to clients.\r\n\r\nOver the following couple of hours, the markets got a grip re-read what Draghi had said and ignored the “un-named source”. Now let’s get one thing absolutely clear. The ECB shit themselves over EUR appreciation across the board and thought they could walk back Draghi’s speech…. bloody idiots. The “un-named” source was an ECB underling of some sort.\r\n\r\nThe ECB has done this sort of thing (try to walk back press releases etc.) because they could not organize a piss up in a brewery.\r\n\r\nThe same day as the attempted walk back from the ECB, “Flip –Flopper” Carney was at it again. The BOE governor was so dovish a week earlier he dismissed the MPC vote of 5-3 at the BOE over a rate hike in sterling. One week later, he is now saying that rates could be moving upwards before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nCable rallied across the board, the GBP/USD by about 300 pips in the last few days of last week. It now resides around 1.3000.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC also announced that the BOC was looking to end its accommodative policy regarding the CAD.\r\n\r\nWas all this change of direction coordinated?  Was the fact that Janet Yellen, FED chair, in her cozy chat session later the same day after the Carney and Poloz announcements deliberately held without any mention of FED policies or US economic data references?\r\n\r\nIs the Pope catholic?\r\n\r\nAll of this was stage managed and coordinated down to the minute. The only screw up was the ECB, not for the first time misunderstanding the effect of the statement.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt at some time Central Bank policies would change around the world and from that perspective we should not be surprised, but it was the coordination of the message that was fascinating.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nThe first aspect about all of this I would like to mention is that from the BOE and ECB perspective nothing will probably change until closer to the end of the year, maybe even into early 2018. At least that’s my takeaway.\r\n\r\nDo we still have divergence with Central Banks?\r\n\r\nYes, but it’s now not as easy to trade because the markets will now be anticipating moves in interest rates and speculation will be at fever pitch from now on.\r\n\r\nWhat I do think is that the USD was crushed… over crushed and the likelihood of a bounce in the DXY is good.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, every word written or uttered by Draghi, Poloz and Flip-Flopper will be scrutinized beyond belief. The game keepers have now turned poachers for want of a better phrase.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago, in the archives of the DRIVE THRU, I wrote about Central Bank Governors / Presidents being treated as Rock Stars by the markets. I referred to this again after BREXIT when Carney had a walk of about 50 metres to get to the lectern to deliver his actions to support cable. All he needed on the walk were a few lasers borrowed from Pink Floyd and dry ice as he finally entered the conference room.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, we are back at this stage again.\r\n\r\nAs long as we don’t get the likes of Steve Liesmann from CNBC throwing his underpants on the stage when Janet Yellen walks in, in a Tom Jones copycat move made by his female fans, we should be alright.\r\n\r\nNow there is a picture to pour out your Sunday morning cornflakes to!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #139 PREMIUM SERVICE (SUBSCRIBER VERSION)\r\nDATE: 2nd July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'game-keepers-now-poachers', '', '', '2017-07-01 04:31:28', '2017-07-01 09:31:28', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=9641', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9642, 1, '2017-07-01 04:27:52', '2017-07-01 09:27:52', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf ever anyone says to you that FX trading is boring and un-eventful just remind them of the shenanigans that went on last week.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, ECB President and the “sources” my arse saying that the markets mis-judged his comments. What a load of bollocks.\r\n\r\nMark Carney the governor of the BOE doing what he does best “Flip-Flopping and finally, last but not least…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz governor of the BOC announcing that the BOC are en route to change policy away from supportive to hawkish by possibly looking to raise Canadian interest rates before the end of 2017 (I would say if oil drops through $40.00 that move could be delayed).\r\n\r\nThe three flutes named above have suddenly (coordinated?) turned from GAME KEEPERS to POACHERS vis-a-vis their interest rate policies.\r\n\r\nI will return to this matter later in the blog with the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nGetting back into the groove now, the PREMIUM SERVICE added about 300 pips last week and I am now back in the mode of CORE POSITIONS and stacking up LIMIT ORDERS.\r\n\r\nHaving said that, it is hard trading at the moment; one must remember that it is summer and we have been blessed with a few moves that may be over-played, but nonetheless have provided some great moves. If you are a cautious and conservative trader like me, you are probably kicking yourself over a few hundred pips extra you could have gained had you not exited positions too early.\r\n\r\nRemember; no one should ever feel guilty about banking pips and few $$$. It’s a much better feeling the losing $$$. Like most of you I guess, we still look at the woulda, coulda and shoulda trades. It’s normal… but just move on.\r\n\r\nVery comfortable now in my new surroundings in Nova Scotia. It’s a great spot and much better for me trading in a bright open office with a view rather than the darkened room, with a huge fecking tree blocking out most of the natural light that I had previously in Quebec. These subtle differences do make a difference.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt would be very easy to repeat myself three or four times in various sections of the blog this week. It will be a check on the state of my mental health to see if I can avoid this!\r\n\r\nIt was a light week with regards to Economic data but holy fuck the central bank governors and presidents more than made up for that.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL and USD/CAD:\r\n\r\nPicture this: - An old man every morning switching on his machines and looking at the screens swearing at himself, “FFS why the feck I am not short this fecking pair” … this was me all week and guess what, I’ll still be doing it next week at this rate.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s LIVE WEBINAR (without getting on my soapbox), I predicted OIL lower to about $42.00 then a small bounce then a test of $40.00. So far it’s playing out.\r\n\r\nI need to get my ass in gear and have a USD/CAD short trade set up in position.\r\n\r\nOIL is a dirty old commodity and OPEC are an out of date collection of countries that lie to each other and the world about production because of pure greed. As the world becomes less and less reliant on middle eastern OIL the effectiveness of what OPEC does or says gets less and less.\r\n\r\nI wish that that I could come down off that fence and say what I really mean.\r\n\r\nPutting my attempt at humour to one side, this is all about pure, basic and very simple Economic SUPPLY AND DEMAND.\r\n\r\nThis highly speculative market has lost its edge of late as many hedge funds who were big participants in the OIL markets are no longer around. The ability to push the price around is still there but the logic (did I actually use that word in association with OIL?) has long gone.\r\n\r\nSo basically, this is a SUPPLY AND DEMAND call and nothing else. I think that this message is hitting home with a bit more bite now.\r\n\r\nBack to the CAD…\r\n\r\nI am looking for mid 1.32’s for an entry short if possible but this looks unlikely if data continues to come in line or beat expectations.  As long as I am in short prior to the next BOC meeting at this stage these are my thoughts.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DRAGHI and the ECB:\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God. What a fecking gang of unprofessional idiots. They must have all been acting as the scarecrow from the wizard of Oz. Not a damn brain between the lot of them.\r\n\r\n“Unnamed sources” basically the ECB, shit themselves because the single currency strengthened, basically it leapt up like a salmon, and then they tell us a day later that we’re the fecking numpties as we misinterpreted Draghi’s speech. Bollocks basically double bollocks.\r\n\r\nThe FX market was on steroids for the day of Draghi’s speech (Tuesday) and the following day calamity reigned for many retail traders still long. As the “unnamed sources” sound-byte hit the wires everything EUR dropped 100-200 pips in an instant. I’d say that hurt a lot of people because the fills would have been poor, especially with the likes of FXCM! Did they do what they usually do in situations like this and just lock out traders?\r\n\r\nOver the rest of Wednesday the single currency reversed back to the previous day levels. Helter-skelter day!</li>\r\n 	<li>THE ECB ECONOMIC FORUM (Sintra, Portugal)\r\n\r\nDraghi was there as host, along with his three amigos, Carney (BOE), Poloz (BOC) and Kuroda (BOJ).\r\n\r\nThis was where “Carney the flip-flopper” came out of his closet to announce that he would be looking to raise after all… what a “plonker”.\r\n\r\nPoloz confirmed what he stated earlier on CNBC about removing accommodation from the BOC and to start looking to raise interest rates.\r\n\r\nKuroda, apart from needing to spend a few $$$ on dental work, announced nada, nothing new. The BOJ now remains the only central bank in true dovish, accommodative mode.\r\n\r\nMore about this topic later.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN:\r\n\r\nOn Tuesday I cut out of trades early after Draghi’s first speech ahead of Janet Yellen’s diary date.\r\n\r\nFFS, it was granny tells a fecking story around the fireside….\r\n\r\nI cut profitable trades to be sensible for “Storytime with Janet”. Never have I been so disappointed. No policies, no outlook, no guessing and no gossip; just stories about Ben and Merv “the swerve”.</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:\r\n\r\nThe negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>“TRUMP”\r\n\r\nAs diplomatically as possible:\r\n\r\nThis week’s tweet highlight, or rather lowlight…\r\n\r\nOn Thursday, he tweeted about someone from a TV station who was bleeding from a face-lift who was invited to Mar a Lago, but TRUMP would not meet her for an interview because she was bleeding from the surgery…WTF.\r\n\r\nThis is the leader of the “FREE WORLD” the most powerful man in the world.\r\n\r\nMost of the world used to laugh at the antics of the US pre-TRUMP and most Americans could not understand why. With TRUMP in office and tweets like this, God knows what the thoughts are now. Even I find this difficult to comment on.\r\n\r\nApart from the fact that TRUMP behaves like a spoilt child and NOT a 70-year-old adult.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am canceling the LIVE WEBINARS for the summer and will start up again in the fall/autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9617\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017-953x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"953\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nQuite a bit scheduled this week. This makes a change from recent weeks and a few items stand out for me.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The pick of the week for most traders but NOT me is Friday’s Non-Farm payroll numbers. I think I have had more luck on the lottery lately… at least with the lottery you stand a chance of winning.\r\n\r\nAs usual all your family favourites will be dragged onto CNBC, BLOOMBERG and FOX BUSINESS to talk shite about the numbers no one can predict. Frankly given the fact the US department of statistics only give us approximations because previous numbers are altered up and down, in fact previous, previous numbers are altered… it’s all rather a game to stay away from in my opinion. Paint a wall, take out your significant other, mow the lawn or just pick yer nose it’s better than the madness of NFP day.\r\n\r\nPrior to NFP we have ADP jobs data, no real help for NFP as last months numbers showed. The FOMC meeting minutes should be interesting to see how hawkish the FED really are. Is it all fur coat and no knickers, we should find out Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: A plethora of PMi data. Services and Construction should be strong but Manufacturing maybe a bit below. All are expected to be over 50.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: The RBA have a rate statement announcement plus we have Retail sales and a Trade balance number to look forward to. I am getting excited just thinking about these news items. I am well hedged the AUD at the moment so I couldn’t give a rats hairy arse what way the numbers go.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Stephen Poloz (BOC Governor), will be looking closely at the Trade balance and Jobs data no doubt with a BOC interest rate decision up very soon.\r\n\r\nPersonally, given the importance of OIL to the CAD economy and commodities in general, I think he will have more than just one eye on WTi.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9618\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017-1024x827.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"827\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9633\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9634\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9632\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9635\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9636\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9637\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9638\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Further information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 40% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me.\r\n\r\nI will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017. The opportunity to make pips with me is there and as you will see later in this section and on my webpage, I have a special promotion that was due to expire at the end of June, which I have extended until the open of the markets on July 2nd at 5PM EST, called “DOUBLE IT UP”.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, look at my promotion and website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MONTH TO DATE:  +1,203 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +2,405 pips\r\n</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\r\n</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>DO YOU WANT TO JOIN THE PREMIUM SERVICE?\r\n</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">There has never been a better time….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This promotion closes Sunday 2nd July at 5PM EST (Extended from June 30th)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE –  SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:\r\n</strong><strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the biggest and I believe the best subscriber promotion that I have ever offered.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">What is <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong> all about…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Basically, from now until 2nd of July at 5PM EST anyone who subscribes to the PREMIUM SERVICE through my “SUBSCRIBE HERE” tab at the top of my welcome page will have their subscription period doubled at no extra cost.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This virtually means that a 10 week subscrption will take you right through to the end of 2017.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Confirmation of the <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP” </strong>will be contained in the “welcome on board documents” the accompanies your subscription confirmation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the best and most generous promotion that I have ever offered since starting the PREMIUM SERVICE and I hope that many of you take advantage.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Below are the dates of the DRIVE THRU blog for the remainder of this year, 2018 and 2019.</p>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019-1024x621.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"621\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">July’s winner is:\r\ncarlos**********@gmail.com\r\n\r\nBy the time this blog is posted Carlos should be up and running with full access.</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nI added 292 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for the year last week, it could have been double that. I was spooked out of the Draghi rally on Tuesday on the basis that I wanted to clear most of the decks prior to Yellen’s moment. FFS; what a complete and utter nonevent that was; it really pist me off, a self-glorification of her tenure so far reminiscing her times with Bernanke and sucking up to my buddy Merv “The Swerve” King, BOE governor pre-the flip-flopper.\r\n\r\nThe PIP year to date total is now at 2,405 pips.\r\n\r\nMy rough target per month is 1,250 pips to achieve my annual objective of 10,000 fresh and tasty pips.\r\n\r\nOther points of the overall performance that I look at are as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Drawdowns are higher than usual but within my revised TRADE PLAN accommodating longer-term POSITION TRADES.</li>\r\n 	<li>Profitable trades versus Loss trades ratios are improving. Monthly for June 77% / 33% and YTD now just under my target at 70% / 30%.</li>\r\n 	<li>Performance status in pips versus last year. I am now at 40% of my objective for this time of year…this is improving and a couple of good months will boost this towards 100%.</li>\r\n 	<li>Day trades are still an issue. I have zero confidence in some of the moves and so my TRADE PLAN guidelines by coincidence do not set off alarms. The alarms that do pop–up, frankly, I wouldn’t touch the trades with a barge pole.</li>\r\n 	<li>I have let many trades go by that maybe I should have entered.\r\n\r\nThe point to note here is that I am despite being behind objective NOT taking trades that <u>I AM NOT</u> 100% committed to.</li>\r\n 	<li>Profit per trade is lower than usual but typical for the time of year. One cannot expect in the slow months the same return. I am not comfortable either reviewing position sizing yet as compensation for this.\r\n\r\nI will review position sizing in the fall / autumn when the liquidity returns…hopefully.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<u>\r\nTRADING ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, it\'s a pain in the arse. The summer is here and I think we have to treat last week as an exception. Fresh ranges and tops have been established, especially in the commodity currencies. The possible excitement ahead is possibly with the S&amp;P. It is up against the 127% Fibonacci extension and it looks toppy. However, I have been saying equities should turn lower for what feels like months and all that happens is that they power higher every time. So; I am not the best at calling the moves in the S&amp;P. But I still think the S&amp;P looks toppy.\r\n\r\nFollowing my GBP dilemma from last week’s DRIVE THRU, I have stayed away from the GBP/USD but I have not resisted the temptation with the cable cross rates. There is more to come. I will be filling my boots on cross rates if my thought process plays out moving forward.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, I am getting ready to load up USD long trades again. Once the overreaction to all the possible rate hikes from the other Central Banks (BOE, ECB and BOC) have died down I think that the USD will re-assert itself once again.\r\n\r\nThe pair that cause me a bit of a headache with my plan moving forward is how the USD/JPY will react to USD moves and equity moves that could be heading lower. I bring this up because the BOJ is the only Central Bank still in the camp of dovishness and accommodation with no letup of accommodation even thought about this year or next!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCORE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>I have started with: -\r\n\r\nGBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD long trades. In addition, I am still looking to add to my AUD/NZD long trades again.\r\n\r\nI currently hold trades with NZD/USD and AUD/USD which are under water. I am looking to add more short trades with these pairs as well.\r\n\r\nOver the couple of weeks I will create a spreadsheet to place in this section detailing goals and objectives.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-TRADES-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9619\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-TRADES-02072017-890x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"890\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9620\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-02072017-819x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!</strong>\r\n\r\nLast week will be remembered for several things as far as I am concerned: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Draghi turns hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB tell us he wasn’t hawkish at all.</li>\r\n 	<li>Carney “flip flops” again.</li>\r\n 	<li>Poloz confirms he’s gone hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>Janet’s cozy fire side chat (non-event).</li>\r\n 	<li>Kuroda is not at the party with the other CB Governors.</li>\r\n 	<li>Donald Trump’s bizarre tweets (nothing unusual…I suppose).</li>\r\n 	<li>Rampant Commodity currencies.</li>\r\n 	<li>Theresa May surviving the Queens Speech vote.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThey were all interesting in their own right, but I want to focus on those bullet points at the top of the list.\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago (June 17th) I wrote in this SOAPBOX section about how I thought we as traders probably had a window of about 4/6 months when Central Bank policy divergence between the FED and the other G7 countries Central Banks would give us some strong directional trading opportunities.\r\n\r\nWith what happened last week, I think we can forget that.\r\n\r\nIn true ECB style, President Draghi announces to the world on Tuesday that the EURO AREA recovery was both strengthening and broadening. He added that the Central Bank can aid this covered by adjusting the parameters of it’s policy instruments. He added that the DEFLATION threat was over and reflationary forces were now at play.\r\n\r\nThis announcement was the catalyst for yields to swiftly move higher and this took the EUR/USD up around 150 pips as the single currency broadly strengthened across all EUR linked pairs. The USD (DXY) Index was crushed to hit lows.\r\n\r\nNow, he still had dovish undertones in his speech, but surely to God the ECB could have predicted the response by the markets.\r\n\r\nThe following day…the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away, at least for an hour or so anyway. In true ECB style of days gone by, out comes an announcement (as the EUR/USD was poking above 1.1400), from un-named sources that the markets read Draghi’s previous day’s speech all wrong, “He was Dovish not Hawkish”.\r\n\r\nWhat a load of crap that was. As mentioned earlier in the blog, all EUR related pairs dropped between 100 and 250 pips in an instant. My guess is that many traders were stopped out way beyond their stop loss levels as the move lower was swift with little or no stopping points on the way, one can just imagine the slippage some brokers would have transmitted to clients.\r\n\r\nOver the following couple of hours, the markets got a grip re-read what Draghi had said and ignored the “un-named source”. Now let’s get one thing absolutely clear. The ECB shit themselves over EUR appreciation across the board and thought they could walk back Draghi’s speech…. bloody idiots. The “un-named” source was an ECB underling of some sort.\r\n\r\nThe ECB has done this sort of thing (try to walk back press releases etc.) because they could not organize a piss up in a brewery.\r\n\r\nThe same day as the attempted walk back from the ECB, “Flip –Flopper” Carney was at it again. The BOE governor was so dovish a week earlier he dismissed the MPC vote of 5-3 at the BOE over a rate hike in sterling. One week later, he is now saying that rates could be moving upwards before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nCable rallied across the board, the GBP/USD by about 300 pips in the last few days of last week. It now resides around 1.3000.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC also announced that the BOC was looking to end its accommodative policy regarding the CAD.\r\n\r\nWas all this change of direction coordinated?  Was the fact that Janet Yellen, FED chair, in her cozy chat session later the same day after the Carney and Poloz announcements deliberately held without any mention of FED policies or US economic data references?\r\n\r\nIs the Pope catholic?\r\n\r\nAll of this was stage managed and coordinated down to the minute. The only screw up was the ECB, not for the first time misunderstanding the effect of the statement.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt at some time Central Bank policies would change around the world and from that perspective we should not be surprised, but it was the coordination of the message that was fascinating.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nThe first aspect about all of this I would like to mention is that from the BOE and ECB perspective nothing will probably change until closer to the end of the year, maybe even into early 2018. At least that’s my takeaway.\r\n\r\nDo we still have divergence with Central Banks?\r\n\r\nYes, but it’s now not as easy to trade because the markets will now be anticipating moves in interest rates and speculation will be at fever pitch from now on.\r\n\r\nWhat I do think is that the USD was crushed… over crushed and the likelihood of a bounce in the DXY is good.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, every word written or uttered by Draghi, Poloz and Flip-Flopper will be scrutinized beyond belief. The game keepers have now turned poachers for want of a better phrase.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago, in the archives of the DRIVE THRU, I wrote about Central Bank Governors / Presidents being treated as Rock Stars by the markets. I referred to this again after BREXIT when Carney had a walk of about 50 metres to get to the lectern to deliver his actions to support cable. All he needed on the walk were a few lasers borrowed from Pink Floyd and dry ice as he finally entered the conference room.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, we are back at this stage again.\r\n\r\nAs long as we don’t get the likes of Steve Liesmann from CNBC throwing his underpants on the stage when Janet Yellen walks in, in a Tom Jones copycat move made by his female fans, we should be alright.\r\n\r\nNow there is a picture to pour out your Sunday morning cornflakes to!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #139 PREMIUM SERVICE (SUBSCRIBER VERSION)\r\nDATE: 2nd July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9641-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-01 04:27:52', '2017-07-01 09:27:52', '', 9641, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9641-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9643, 1, '2017-07-01 04:29:40', '2017-07-01 09:29:40', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf ever anyone says to you that FX trading is boring and un-eventful just remind them of the shenanigans that went on last week.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, ECB President and the “sources” my arse saying that the markets mis-judged his comments. What a load of bollocks.\r\n\r\nMark Carney the governor of the BOE doing what he does best “Flip-Flopping and finally, last but not least…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz governor of the BOC announcing that the BOC are en route to change policy away from supportive to hawkish by possibly looking to raise Canadian interest rates before the end of 2017 (I would say if oil drops through $40.00 that move could be delayed).\r\n\r\nThe three flutes named above have suddenly (coordinated?) turned from GAME KEEPERS to POACHERS vis-a-vis their interest rate policies.\r\n\r\nI will return to this matter later in the blog with the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nGetting back into the groove now, the PREMIUM SERVICE added about 300 pips last week and I am now back in the mode of CORE POSITIONS and stacking up LIMIT ORDERS.\r\n\r\nHaving said that, it is hard trading at the moment; one must remember that it is summer and we have been blessed with a few moves that may be over-played, but nonetheless have provided some great moves. If you are a cautious and conservative trader like me, you are probably kicking yourself over a few hundred pips extra you could have gained had you not exited positions too early.\r\n\r\nRemember; no one should ever feel guilty about banking pips and few $$$. It’s a much better feeling the losing $$$. Like most of you I guess, we still look at the woulda, coulda and shoulda trades. It’s normal… but just move on.\r\n\r\nVery comfortable now in my new surroundings in Nova Scotia. It’s a great spot and much better for me trading in a bright open office with a view rather than the darkened room, with a huge fecking tree blocking out most of the natural light that I had previously in Quebec. These subtle differences do make a difference.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt would be very easy to repeat myself three or four times in various sections of the blog this week. It will be a check on the state of my mental health to see if I can avoid this!\r\n\r\nIt was a light week with regards to Economic data but holy fuck the central bank governors and presidents more than made up for that.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL and USD/CAD:Picture this: - An old man every morning switching on his machines and looking at the screens swearing at himself, “FFS why the feck I am not short this fecking pair” … this was me all week and guess what, I’ll still be doing it next week at this rate.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s LIVE WEBINAR (without getting on my soapbox), I predicted OIL lower to about $42.00 then a small bounce then a test of $40.00. So far it’s playing out.\r\n\r\nI need to get my ass in gear and have a USD/CAD short trade set up in position.\r\n\r\nOIL is a dirty old commodity and OPEC are an out of date collection of countries that lie to each other and the world about production because of pure greed. As the world becomes less and less reliant on middle eastern OIL the effectiveness of what OPEC does or says gets less and less.\r\n\r\nI wish that that I could come down off that fence and say what I really mean.\r\n\r\nPutting my attempt at humour to one side, this is all about pure, basic and very simple Economic SUPPLY AND DEMAND.\r\n\r\nThis highly speculative market has lost its edge of late as many hedge funds who were big participants in the OIL markets are no longer around. The ability to push the price around is still there but the logic (did I actually use that word in association with OIL?) has long gone.\r\n\r\nSo basically, this is a SUPPLY AND DEMAND call and nothing else. I think that this message is hitting home with a bit more bite now.\r\n\r\nBack to the CAD…\r\n\r\nI am looking for mid 1.32’s for an entry short if possible but this looks unlikely if data continues to come in line or beat expectations.  As long as I am in short prior to the next BOC meeting at this stage these are my thoughts.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DRAGHI and the ECB:Holy Mother of God. What a fecking gang of unprofessional idiots. They must have all been acting as the scarecrow from the wizard of Oz. Not a damn brain between the lot of them.\r\n\r\n“Unnamed sources” basically the ECB, shit themselves because the single currency strengthened, basically it leapt up like a salmon, and then they tell us a day later that we’re the fecking numpties as we misinterpreted Draghi’s speech. Bollocks basically double bollocks.\r\n\r\nThe FX market was on steroids for the day of Draghi’s speech (Tuesday) and the following day calamity reigned for many retail traders still long. As the “unnamed sources” sound-byte hit the wires everything EUR dropped 100-200 pips in an instant. I’d say that hurt a lot of people because the fills would have been poor, especially with the likes of FXCM! Did they do what they usually do in situations like this and just lock out traders?\r\n\r\nOver the rest of Wednesday the single currency reversed back to the previous day levels. Helter-skelter day!</li>\r\n 	<li>THE ECB ECONOMIC FORUM (Sintra, Portugal)Draghi was there as host, along with his three amigos, Carney (BOE), Poloz (BOC) and Kuroda (BOJ).\r\n\r\nThis was where “Carney the flip-flopper” came out of his closet to announce that he would be looking to raise after all… what a “plonker”.\r\n\r\nPoloz confirmed what he stated earlier on CNBC about removing accommodation from the BOC and to start looking to raise interest rates.\r\n\r\nKuroda, apart from needing to spend a few $$$ on dental work, announced nada, nothing new. The BOJ now remains the only central bank in true dovish, accommodative mode.\r\n\r\nMore about this topic later.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN:On Tuesday I cut out of trades early after Draghi’s first speech ahead of Janet Yellen’s diary date.\r\n\r\nFFS, it was granny tells a fecking story around the fireside….\r\n\r\nI cut profitable trades to be sensible for “Storytime with Janet”. Never have I been so disappointed. No policies, no outlook, no guessing and no gossip; just stories about Ben and Merv “the swerve”.</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>“TRUMP”As diplomatically as possible:\r\n\r\nThis week’s tweet highlight, or rather lowlight…\r\n\r\nOn Thursday, he tweeted about someone from a TV station who was bleeding from a face-lift who was invited to Mar a Lago, but TRUMP would not meet her for an interview because she was bleeding from the surgery…WTF.\r\n\r\nThis is the leader of the “FREE WORLD” the most powerful man in the world.\r\n\r\nMost of the world used to laugh at the antics of the US pre-TRUMP and most Americans could not understand why. With TRUMP in office and tweets like this, God knows what the thoughts are now. Even I find this difficult to comment on.\r\n\r\nApart from the fact that TRUMP behaves like a spoilt child and NOT a 70-year-old adult.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am canceling the LIVE WEBINARS for the summer and will start up again in the fall/autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9617\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017-953x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"953\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nQuite a bit scheduled this week. This makes a change from recent weeks and a few items stand out for me.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The pick of the week for most traders but NOT me is Friday’s Non-Farm payroll numbers. I think I have had more luck on the lottery lately… at least with the lottery you stand a chance of winning.As usual all your family favourites will be dragged onto CNBC, BLOOMBERG and FOX BUSINESS to talk shite about the numbers no one can predict. Frankly given the fact the US department of statistics only give us approximations because previous numbers are altered up and down, in fact previous, previous numbers are altered… it’s all rather a game to stay away from in my opinion. Paint a wall, take out your significant other, mow the lawn or just pick yer nose it’s better than the madness of NFP day.\r\n\r\nPrior to NFP we have ADP jobs data, no real help for NFP as last months numbers showed. The FOMC meeting minutes should be interesting to see how hawkish the FED really are. Is it all fur coat and no knickers, we should find out Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: A plethora of PMi data. Services and Construction should be strong but Manufacturing maybe a bit below. All are expected to be over 50.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: The RBA have a rate statement announcement plus we have Retail sales and a Trade balance number to look forward to. I am getting excited just thinking about these news items. I am well hedged the AUD at the moment so I couldn’t give a rats hairy arse what way the numbers go.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Stephen Poloz (BOC Governor), will be looking closely at the Trade balance and Jobs data no doubt with a BOC interest rate decision up very soon.Personally, given the importance of OIL to the CAD economy and commodities in general, I think he will have more than just one eye on WTi.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9618\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017-1024x827.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"827\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9633\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9634\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9632\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9635\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9636\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9637\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9638\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Further information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 40% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me.</p>\r\nI will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017. The opportunity to make pips with me is there and as you will see later in this section and on my webpage, I have a special promotion that was due to expire at the end of June, which I have extended until the open of the markets on July 2nd at 5PM EST, called “DOUBLE IT UP”.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, look at my promotion and website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MONTH TO DATE:  +1,203 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +2,405 pips</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>DO YOU WANT TO JOIN THE PREMIUM SERVICE?\r\n</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">There has never been a better time….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This promotion closes Sunday 2nd July at 5PM EST (Extended from June 30th)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE –  SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:\r\n</strong><strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the biggest and I believe the best subscriber promotion that I have ever offered.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">What is <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong> all about…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Basically, from now until 2nd of July at 5PM EST anyone who subscribes to the PREMIUM SERVICE through my “SUBSCRIBE HERE” tab at the top of my welcome page will have their subscription period doubled at no extra cost.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This virtually means that a 10 week subscription will take you right through to the end of 2017.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Confirmation of the <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP” </strong>will be contained in the “welcome on board documents” the accompanies your subscription confirmation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the best and most generous promotion that I have ever offered since starting the PREMIUM SERVICE and I hope that many of you take advantage.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Below are the dates of the DRIVE THRU blog for the remainder of this year, 2018 and 2019.</p>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019-1024x621.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"621\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This can be done as follows: -</p>\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">July’s winner is:\r\ncarlos**********@gmail.com</p>\r\nBy the time this blog is posted Carlos should be up and running with full access.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nI added 292 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for the year last week, it could have been double that. I was spooked out of the Draghi rally on Tuesday on the basis that I wanted to clear most of the decks prior to Yellen’s moment. FFS; what a complete and utter nonevent that was; it really pist me off, a self-glorification of her tenure so far reminiscing her times with Bernanke and sucking up to my buddy Merv “The Swerve” King, BOE governor pre-the flip-flopper.\r\n\r\nThe PIP year to date total is now at 2,405 pips.\r\n\r\nMy rough target per month is 1,250 pips to achieve my annual objective of 10,000 fresh and tasty pips.\r\n\r\nOther points of the overall performance that I look at are as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Drawdowns are higher than usual but within my revised TRADE PLAN accommodating longer-term POSITION TRADES.</li>\r\n 	<li>Profitable trades versus Loss trades ratios are improving. Monthly for June 77% / 33% and YTD now just under my target at 70% / 30%.</li>\r\n 	<li>Performance status in pips versus last year. I am now at 40% of my objective for this time of year…this is improving and a couple of good months will boost this towards 100%.</li>\r\n 	<li>Day trades are still an issue. I have zero confidence in some of the moves and so my TRADE PLAN guidelines by coincidence do not set off alarms. The alarms that do pop–up, frankly, I wouldn’t touch the trades with a barge pole.</li>\r\n 	<li>I have let many trades go by that maybe I should have entered.The point to note here is that I am despite being behind objective NOT taking trades that <u>I AM NOT</u> 100% committed to.</li>\r\n 	<li>Profit per trade is lower than usual but typical for the time of year. One cannot expect in the slow months the same return. I am not comfortable either reviewing position sizing yet as compensation for this.I will review position sizing in the fall / autumn when the liquidity returns…hopefully.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<u>\r\nTRADING ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, it\'s a pain in the arse. The summer is here and I think we have to treat last week as an exception. Fresh ranges and tops have been established, especially in the commodity currencies. The possible excitement ahead is possibly with the S&amp;P. It is up against the 127% Fibonacci extension and it looks toppy. However, I have been saying equities should turn lower for what feels like months and all that happens is that they power higher every time. So; I am not the best at calling the moves in the S&amp;P. But I still think the S&amp;P looks toppy.\r\n\r\nFollowing my GBP dilemma from last week’s DRIVE THRU, I have stayed away from the GBP/USD but I have not resisted the temptation with the cable cross rates. There is more to come. I will be filling my boots on cross rates if my thought process plays out moving forward.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, I am getting ready to load up USD long trades again. Once the overreaction to all the possible rate hikes from the other Central Banks (BOE, ECB and BOC) have died down I think that the USD will re-assert itself once again.\r\n\r\nThe pair that cause me a bit of a headache with my plan moving forward is how the USD/JPY will react to USD moves and equity moves that could be heading lower. I bring this up because the BOJ is the only Central Bank still in the camp of dovishness and accommodation with no let up of accommodation even thought about this year or next!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nI have started with: -\r\n\r\nGBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD long trades. In addition, I am still looking to add to my AUD/NZD long trades again.\r\n\r\nI currently hold trades with NZD/USD and AUD/USD which are under water. I am looking to add more short trades with these pairs as well.\r\n\r\nOver the couple of weeks I will create a spreadsheet to place in this section detailing goals and objectives.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-TRADES-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9619\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-TRADES-02072017-890x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"890\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9620\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-02072017-819x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!</strong>\r\n\r\nLast week will be remembered for several things as far as I am concerned: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Draghi turns hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB tell us he wasn’t hawkish at all.</li>\r\n 	<li>Carney “flip flops” again.</li>\r\n 	<li>Poloz confirms he’s gone hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>Janet’s cozy fire side chat (non-event).</li>\r\n 	<li>Kuroda is not at the party with the other CB Governors.</li>\r\n 	<li>Donald Trump’s bizarre tweets (nothing unusual…I suppose).</li>\r\n 	<li>Rampant Commodity currencies.</li>\r\n 	<li>Theresa May surviving the Queens Speech vote.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThey were all interesting in their own right, but I want to focus on those bullet points at the top of the list.\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago (June 17th) I wrote in this SOAPBOX section about how I thought we as traders probably had a window of about 4/6 months when Central Bank policy divergence between the FED and the other G7 countries Central Banks would give us some strong directional trading opportunities.\r\n\r\nWith what happened last week, I think we can forget that.\r\n\r\nIn true ECB style, President Draghi announces to the world on Tuesday that the EURO AREA recovery was both strengthening and broadening. He added that the Central Bank can aid this covered by adjusting the parameters of it’s policy instruments. He added that the DEFLATION threat was over and reflationary forces were now at play.\r\n\r\nThis announcement was the catalyst for yields to swiftly move higher and this took the EUR/USD up around 150 pips as the single currency broadly strengthened across all EUR linked pairs. The USD (DXY) Index was crushed to hit lows.\r\n\r\nNow, he still had dovish undertones in his speech, but surely to God the ECB could have predicted the response by the markets.\r\n\r\nThe following day…the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away, at least for an hour or so anyway. In true ECB style of days gone by, out comes an announcement (as the EUR/USD was poking above 1.1400), from un-named sources that the markets read Draghi’s previous day’s speech all wrong, “He was Dovish not Hawkish”.\r\n\r\nWhat a load of crap that was. As mentioned earlier in the blog, all EUR related pairs dropped between 100 and 250 pips in an instant. My guess is that many traders were stopped out way beyond their stop loss levels as the move lower was swift with little or no stopping points on the way, one can just imagine the slippage some brokers would have transmitted to clients.\r\n\r\nOver the following couple of hours, the markets got a grip re-read what Draghi had said and ignored the “un-named source”. Now let’s get one thing absolutely clear. The ECB shit themselves over EUR appreciation across the board and thought they could walk back Draghi’s speech…. bloody idiots. The “un-named” source was an ECB underling of some sort.\r\n\r\nThe ECB has done this sort of thing (try to walk back press releases etc.) because they could not organize a piss up in a brewery.\r\n\r\nThe same day as the attempted walk back from the ECB, “Flip –Flopper” Carney was at it again. The BOE governor was so dovish a week earlier he dismissed the MPC vote of 5-3 at the BOE over a rate hike in sterling. One week later, he is now saying that rates could be moving upwards before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nCable rallied across the board, the GBP/USD by about 300 pips in the last few days of last week. It now resides around 1.3000.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC also announced that the BOC was looking to end its accommodative policy regarding the CAD.\r\n\r\nWas all this change of direction coordinated?  Was the fact that Janet Yellen, FED chair, in her cozy chat session later the same day after the Carney and Poloz announcements deliberately held without any mention of FED policies or US economic data references?\r\n\r\nIs the Pope catholic?\r\n\r\nAll of this was stage managed and coordinated down to the minute. The only screw up was the ECB, not for the first time misunderstanding the effect of the statement.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt at some time Central Bank policies would change around the world and from that perspective we should not be surprised, but it was the coordination of the message that was fascinating.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nThe first aspect about all of this I would like to mention is that from the BOE and ECB perspective nothing will probably change until closer to the end of the year, maybe even into early 2018. At least that’s my takeaway.\r\n\r\nDo we still have divergence with Central Banks?\r\n\r\nYes, but it’s now not as easy to trade because the markets will now be anticipating moves in interest rates and speculation will be at fever pitch from now on.\r\n\r\nWhat I do think is that the USD was crushed… over crushed and the likelihood of a bounce in the DXY is good.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, every word written or uttered by Draghi, Poloz and Flip-Flopper will be scrutinized beyond belief. The game keepers have now turned poachers for want of a better phrase.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago, in the archives of the DRIVE THRU, I wrote about Central Bank Governors / Presidents being treated as Rock Stars by the markets. I referred to this again after BREXIT when Carney had a walk of about 50 metres to get to the lectern to deliver his actions to support cable. All he needed on the walk were a few lasers borrowed from Pink Floyd and dry ice as he finally entered the conference room.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, we are back at this stage again.\r\n\r\nAs long as we don’t get the likes of Steve Liesmann from CNBC throwing his underpants on the stage when Janet Yellen walks in, in a Tom Jones copycat move made by his female fans, we should be alright.\r\n\r\nNow there is a picture to pour out your Sunday morning cornflakes to!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #139 PREMIUM SERVICE (SUBSCRIBER VERSION)\r\nDATE: 2nd July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9641-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-01 04:29:40', '2017-07-01 09:29:40', '', 9641, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9641-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9644, 1, '2017-07-01 04:31:28', '2017-07-01 09:31:28', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf ever anyone says to you that FX trading is boring and un-eventful just remind them of the shenanigans that went on last week.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, ECB President and the “sources” my arse saying that the markets mis-judged his comments. What a load of bollocks.\r\n\r\nMark Carney the governor of the BOE doing what he does best “Flip-Flopping and finally, last but not least…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz governor of the BOC announcing that the BOC are en route to change policy away from supportive to hawkish by possibly looking to raise Canadian interest rates before the end of 2017 (I would say if oil drops through $40.00 that move could be delayed).\r\n\r\nThe three flutes named above have suddenly (coordinated?) turned from GAME KEEPERS to POACHERS vis-a-vis their interest rate policies.\r\n\r\nI will return to this matter later in the blog with the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nGetting back into the groove now, the PREMIUM SERVICE added about 300 pips last week and I am now back in the mode of CORE POSITIONS and stacking up LIMIT ORDERS.\r\n\r\nHaving said that, it is hard trading at the moment; one must remember that it is summer and we have been blessed with a few moves that may be over-played, but nonetheless have provided some great moves. If you are a cautious and conservative trader like me, you are probably kicking yourself over a few hundred pips extra you could have gained had you not exited positions too early.\r\n\r\nRemember; no one should ever feel guilty about banking pips and few $$$. It’s a much better feeling the losing $$$. Like most of you I guess, we still look at the woulda, coulda and shoulda trades. It’s normal… but just move on.\r\n\r\nVery comfortable now in my new surroundings in Nova Scotia. It’s a great spot and much better for me trading in a bright open office with a view rather than the darkened room, with a huge fecking tree blocking out most of the natural light that I had previously in Quebec. These subtle differences do make a difference.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt would be very easy to repeat myself three or four times in various sections of the blog this week. It will be a check on the state of my mental health to see if I can avoid this!\r\n\r\nIt was a light week with regards to Economic data but holy fuck the central bank governors and presidents more than made up for that.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL and USD/CAD:\r\n\r\nPicture this: - An old man every morning switching on his machines and looking at the screens swearing at himself, “FFS why the feck I am not short this fecking pair” … this was me all week and guess what, I’ll still be doing it next week at this rate.As I mentioned in last week’s LIVE WEBINAR (without getting on my soapbox), I predicted OIL lower to about $42.00 then a small bounce then a test of $40.00. So far it’s playing out.\r\n\r\nI need to get my ass in gear and have a USD/CAD short trade set up in position.\r\n\r\nOIL is a dirty old commodity and OPEC are an out of date collection of countries that lie to each other and the world about production because of pure greed. As the world becomes less and less reliant on middle eastern OIL the effectiveness of what OPEC does or says gets less and less.\r\n\r\nI wish that that I could come down off that fence and say what I really mean.\r\n\r\nPutting my attempt at humour to one side, this is all about pure, basic and very simple Economic SUPPLY AND DEMAND.\r\n\r\nThis highly speculative market has lost its edge of late as many hedge funds who were big participants in the OIL markets are no longer around. The ability to push the price around is still there but the logic (did I actually use that word in association with OIL?) has long gone.\r\n\r\nSo basically, this is a SUPPLY AND DEMAND call and nothing else. I think that this message is hitting home with a bit more bite now.\r\n\r\nBack to the CAD…\r\n\r\nI am looking for mid 1.32’s for an entry short if possible but this looks unlikely if data continues to come in line or beat expectations.  As long as I am in short prior to the next BOC meeting at this stage these are my thoughts.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DRAGHI and the ECB:\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God. What a fecking gang of unprofessional idiots. They must have all been acting as the scarecrow from the wizard of Oz. Not a damn brain between the lot of them.“Unnamed sources” basically the ECB, shit themselves because the single currency strengthened, basically it leapt up like a salmon, and then they tell us a day later that we’re the fecking numpties as we misinterpreted Draghi’s speech. Bollocks basically double bollocks.\r\n\r\nThe FX market was on steroids for the day of Draghi’s speech (Tuesday) and the following day calamity reigned for many retail traders still long. As the “unnamed sources” sound-byte hit the wires everything EUR dropped 100-200 pips in an instant. I’d say that hurt a lot of people because the fills would have been poor, especially with the likes of FXCM! Did they do what they usually do in situations like this and just lock out traders?\r\n\r\nOver the rest of Wednesday the single currency reversed back to the previous day levels. Helter-skelter day!</li>\r\n 	<li>THE ECB ECONOMIC FORUM (Sintra, Portugal)\r\n\r\nDraghi was there as host, along with his three amigos, Carney (BOE), Poloz (BOC) and Kuroda (BOJ).This was where “Carney the flip-flopper” came out of his closet to announce that he would be looking to raise after all… what a “plonker”.\r\n\r\nPoloz confirmed what he stated earlier on CNBC about removing accommodation from the BOC and to start looking to raise interest rates.\r\n\r\nKuroda, apart from needing to spend a few $$$ on dental work, announced nada, nothing new. The BOJ now remains the only central bank in true dovish, accommodative mode.\r\n\r\nMore about this topic later.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN:\r\n\r\nOn Tuesday I cut out of trades early after Draghi’s first speech ahead of Janet Yellen’s diary date.FFS, it was granny tells a fecking story around the fireside….\r\n\r\nI cut profitable trades to be sensible for “Storytime with Janet”. Never have I been so disappointed. No policies, no outlook, no guessing and no gossip; just stories about Ben and Merv “the swerve”.</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:\r\n\r\nThe negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>“TRUMP”\r\n\r\nAs diplomatically as possible:This week’s tweet highlight, or rather lowlight…\r\n\r\nOn Thursday, he tweeted about someone from a TV station who was bleeding from a face-lift who was invited to Mar a Lago, but TRUMP would not meet her for an interview because she was bleeding from the surgery…WTF.\r\n\r\nThis is the leader of the “FREE WORLD” the most powerful man in the world.\r\n\r\nMost of the world used to laugh at the antics of the US pre-TRUMP and most Americans could not understand why. With TRUMP in office and tweets like this, God knows what the thoughts are now. Even I find this difficult to comment on.\r\n\r\nApart from the fact that TRUMP behaves like a spoilt child and NOT a 70-year-old adult.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am canceling the LIVE WEBINARS for the summer and will start up again in the fall/autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9617\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017-953x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"953\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nQuite a bit scheduled this week. This makes a change from recent weeks and a few items stand out for me.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The pick of the week for most traders but NOT me is Friday’s Non-Farm payroll numbers. I think I have had more luck on the lottery lately… at least with the lottery you stand a chance of winning.As usual all your family favourites will be dragged onto CNBC, BLOOMBERG and FOX BUSINESS to talk shite about the numbers no one can predict. Frankly given the fact the US department of statistics only give us approximations because previous numbers are altered up and down, in fact previous, previous numbers are altered… it’s all rather a game to stay away from in my opinion. Paint a wall, take out your significant other, mow the lawn or just pick yer nose it’s better than the madness of NFP day.Prior to NFP we have ADP jobs data, no real help for NFP as last months numbers showed. The FOMC meeting minutes should be interesting to see how hawkish the FED really are. Is it all fur coat and no knickers, we should find out Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: A plethora of PMi data. Services and Construction should be strong but Manufacturing maybe a bit below. All are expected to be over 50.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: The RBA have a rate statement announcement plus we have Retail sales and a Trade balance number to look forward to. I am getting excited just thinking about these news items. I am well hedged the AUD at the moment so I couldn’t give a rats hairy arse what way the numbers go.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Stephen Poloz (BOC Governor), will be looking closely at the Trade balance and Jobs data no doubt with a BOC interest rate decision up very soon.Personally, given the importance of OIL to the CAD economy and commodities in general, I think he will have more than just one eye on WTi.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9618\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017-1024x827.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"827\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9633\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9634\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9632\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9635\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9636\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9637\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9638\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Further information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 40% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me.</p>\r\nI will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017. The opportunity to make pips with me is there and as you will see later in this section and on my webpage, I have a special promotion that was due to expire at the end of June, which I have extended until the open of the markets on July 2nd at 5PM EST, called “DOUBLE IT UP”.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, look at my promotion and website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MONTH TO DATE:  +1,203 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +2,405 pips</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>DO YOU WANT TO JOIN THE PREMIUM SERVICE?\r\n</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">There has never been a better time….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This promotion closes Sunday 2nd July at 5PM EST (Extended from June 30th)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE –  SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:\r\n</strong><strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the biggest and I believe the best subscriber promotion that I have ever offered.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">What is <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong> all about…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Basically, from now until 2nd of July at 5PM EST anyone who subscribes to the PREMIUM SERVICE through my “SUBSCRIBE HERE” tab at the top of my welcome page will have their subscription period doubled at no extra cost.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This virtually means that a 10 week subscription will take you right through to the end of 2017.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Confirmation of the <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP” </strong>will be contained in the “welcome on board documents” the accompanies your subscription confirmation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the best and most generous promotion that I have ever offered since starting the PREMIUM SERVICE and I hope that many of you take advantage.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Below are the dates of the DRIVE THRU blog for the remainder of this year, 2018 and 2019.</p>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019-1024x621.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"621\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This can be done as follows: -</p>\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">July’s winner is:\r\ncarlos**********@gmail.com</p>\r\nBy the time this blog is posted Carlos should be up and running with full access.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nI added 292 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for the year last week, it could have been double that. I was spooked out of the Draghi rally on Tuesday on the basis that I wanted to clear most of the decks prior to Yellen’s moment. FFS; what a complete and utter nonevent that was; it really pist me off, a self-glorification of her tenure so far reminiscing her times with Bernanke and sucking up to my buddy Merv “The Swerve” King, BOE governor pre-the flip-flopper.\r\n\r\nThe PIP year to date total is now at 2,405 pips.\r\n\r\nMy rough target per month is 1,250 pips to achieve my annual objective of 10,000 fresh and tasty pips.\r\n\r\nOther points of the overall performance that I look at are as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Drawdowns are higher than usual but within my revised TRADE PLAN accommodating longer-term POSITION TRADES.</li>\r\n 	<li>Profitable trades versus Loss trades ratios are improving. Monthly for June 77% / 33% and YTD now just under my target at 70% / 30%.</li>\r\n 	<li>Performance status in pips versus last year. I am now at 40% of my objective for this time of year…this is improving and a couple of good months will boost this towards 100%.</li>\r\n 	<li>Day trades are still an issue. I have zero confidence in some of the moves and so my TRADE PLAN guidelines by coincidence do not set off alarms. The alarms that do pop–up, frankly, I wouldn’t touch the trades with a barge pole.</li>\r\n 	<li>I have let many trades go by that maybe I should have entered.The point to note here is that I am despite being behind objective NOT taking trades that <u>I AM NOT</u> 100% committed to.</li>\r\n 	<li>Profit per trade is lower than usual but typical for the time of year. One cannot expect in the slow months the same return. I am not comfortable either reviewing position sizing yet as compensation for this.I will review position sizing in the fall / autumn when the liquidity returns…hopefully.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<u>\r\nTRADING ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, it\'s a pain in the arse. The summer is here and I think we have to treat last week as an exception. Fresh ranges and tops have been established, especially in the commodity currencies. The possible excitement ahead is possibly with the S&amp;P. It is up against the 127% Fibonacci extension and it looks toppy. However, I have been saying equities should turn lower for what feels like months and all that happens is that they power higher every time. So; I am not the best at calling the moves in the S&amp;P. But I still think the S&amp;P looks toppy.\r\n\r\nFollowing my GBP dilemma from last week’s DRIVE THRU, I have stayed away from the GBP/USD but I have not resisted the temptation with the cable cross rates. There is more to come. I will be filling my boots on cross rates if my thought process plays out moving forward.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, I am getting ready to load up USD long trades again. Once the overreaction to all the possible rate hikes from the other Central Banks (BOE, ECB and BOC) have died down I think that the USD will re-assert itself once again.\r\n\r\nThe pair that cause me a bit of a headache with my plan moving forward is how the USD/JPY will react to USD moves and equity moves that could be heading lower. I bring this up because the BOJ is the only Central Bank still in the camp of dovishness and accommodation with no let up of accommodation even thought about this year or next!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nI have started with: -\r\n\r\nGBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD long trades. In addition, I am still looking to add to my AUD/NZD long trades again.\r\n\r\nI currently hold trades with NZD/USD and AUD/USD which are under water. I am looking to add more short trades with these pairs as well.\r\n\r\nOver the couple of weeks I will create a spreadsheet to place in this section detailing goals and objectives.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-TRADES-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9619\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-TRADES-02072017-890x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"890\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9620\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-02072017-819x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!</strong>\r\n\r\nLast week will be remembered for several things as far as I am concerned: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Draghi turns hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB tell us he wasn’t hawkish at all.</li>\r\n 	<li>Carney “flip flops” again.</li>\r\n 	<li>Poloz confirms he’s gone hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>Janet’s cozy fire side chat (non-event).</li>\r\n 	<li>Kuroda is not at the party with the other CB Governors.</li>\r\n 	<li>Donald Trump’s bizarre tweets (nothing unusual…I suppose).</li>\r\n 	<li>Rampant Commodity currencies.</li>\r\n 	<li>Theresa May surviving the Queens Speech vote.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThey were all interesting in their own right, but I want to focus on those bullet points at the top of the list.\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago (June 17th) I wrote in this SOAPBOX section about how I thought we as traders probably had a window of about 4/6 months when Central Bank policy divergence between the FED and the other G7 countries Central Banks would give us some strong directional trading opportunities.\r\n\r\nWith what happened last week, I think we can forget that.\r\n\r\nIn true ECB style, President Draghi announces to the world on Tuesday that the EURO AREA recovery was both strengthening and broadening. He added that the Central Bank can aid this covered by adjusting the parameters of it’s policy instruments. He added that the DEFLATION threat was over and reflationary forces were now at play.\r\n\r\nThis announcement was the catalyst for yields to swiftly move higher and this took the EUR/USD up around 150 pips as the single currency broadly strengthened across all EUR linked pairs. The USD (DXY) Index was crushed to hit lows.\r\n\r\nNow, he still had dovish undertones in his speech, but surely to God the ECB could have predicted the response by the markets.\r\n\r\nThe following day…the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away, at least for an hour or so anyway. In true ECB style of days gone by, out comes an announcement (as the EUR/USD was poking above 1.1400), from un-named sources that the markets read Draghi’s previous day’s speech all wrong, “He was Dovish not Hawkish”.\r\n\r\nWhat a load of crap that was. As mentioned earlier in the blog, all EUR related pairs dropped between 100 and 250 pips in an instant. My guess is that many traders were stopped out way beyond their stop loss levels as the move lower was swift with little or no stopping points on the way, one can just imagine the slippage some brokers would have transmitted to clients.\r\n\r\nOver the following couple of hours, the markets got a grip re-read what Draghi had said and ignored the “un-named source”. Now let’s get one thing absolutely clear. The ECB shit themselves over EUR appreciation across the board and thought they could walk back Draghi’s speech…. bloody idiots. The “un-named” source was an ECB underling of some sort.\r\n\r\nThe ECB has done this sort of thing (try to walk back press releases etc.) because they could not organize a piss up in a brewery.\r\n\r\nThe same day as the attempted walk back from the ECB, “Flip –Flopper” Carney was at it again. The BOE governor was so dovish a week earlier he dismissed the MPC vote of 5-3 at the BOE over a rate hike in sterling. One week later, he is now saying that rates could be moving upwards before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nCable rallied across the board, the GBP/USD by about 300 pips in the last few days of last week. It now resides around 1.3000.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC also announced that the BOC was looking to end its accommodative policy regarding the CAD.\r\n\r\nWas all this change of direction coordinated?  Was the fact that Janet Yellen, FED chair, in her cozy chat session later the same day after the Carney and Poloz announcements deliberately held without any mention of FED policies or US economic data references?\r\n\r\nIs the Pope catholic?\r\n\r\nAll of this was stage managed and coordinated down to the minute. The only screw up was the ECB, not for the first time misunderstanding the effect of the statement.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt at some time Central Bank policies would change around the world and from that perspective we should not be surprised, but it was the coordination of the message that was fascinating.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nThe first aspect about all of this I would like to mention is that from the BOE and ECB perspective nothing will probably change until closer to the end of the year, maybe even into early 2018. At least that’s my takeaway.\r\n\r\nDo we still have divergence with Central Banks?\r\n\r\nYes, but it’s now not as easy to trade because the markets will now be anticipating moves in interest rates and speculation will be at fever pitch from now on.\r\n\r\nWhat I do think is that the USD was crushed… over crushed and the likelihood of a bounce in the DXY is good.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, every word written or uttered by Draghi, Poloz and Flip-Flopper will be scrutinized beyond belief. The game keepers have now turned poachers for want of a better phrase.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago, in the archives of the DRIVE THRU, I wrote about Central Bank Governors / Presidents being treated as Rock Stars by the markets. I referred to this again after BREXIT when Carney had a walk of about 50 metres to get to the lectern to deliver his actions to support cable. All he needed on the walk were a few lasers borrowed from Pink Floyd and dry ice as he finally entered the conference room.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, we are back at this stage again.\r\n\r\nAs long as we don’t get the likes of Steve Liesmann from CNBC throwing his underpants on the stage when Janet Yellen walks in, in a Tom Jones copycat move made by his female fans, we should be alright.\r\n\r\nNow there is a picture to pour out your Sunday morning cornflakes to!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #139 PREMIUM SERVICE (SUBSCRIBER VERSION)\r\nDATE: 2nd July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9641-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-01 04:31:28', '2017-07-01 09:31:28', '', 9641, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9641-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(9654, 1, '2017-07-01 05:05:18', '2017-07-01 10:05:18', '', 'PREM SERVICE PROFITS2 JUNE 2017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'prem-service-profits2-june-2017', '', '', '2017-07-01 05:06:30', '2017-07-01 10:06:30', '', 5000, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS2-JUNE-2017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9662, 1, '2017-07-01 08:38:00', '2017-07-01 13:38:00', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf ever anyone says to you that FX trading is boring and un-eventful just remind them of the shenanigans that went on last week.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, ECB President and the “sources” my arse saying that the markets mis-judged his comments. What a load of bollocks.\r\n\r\nMark Carney the governor of the BOE doing what he does best “Flip-Flopping and finally, last but not least…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz governor of the BOC announcing that the BOC are en route to change policy away from supportive to hawkish by possibly looking to raise Canadian interest rates before the end of 2017 (I would say if oil drops through $40.00 that move could be delayed).\r\n\r\nThe three flutes named above have suddenly (coordinated?) turned from GAME KEEPERS to POACHERS vis-a-vis their interest rate policies.\r\n\r\nI will return to this matter later in the blog with the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nGetting back into the groove now, the PREMIUM SERVICE added about 300 pips last week and I am now back in the mode of CORE POSITIONS and stacking up LIMIT ORDERS.\r\n\r\nHaving said that, it is hard trading at the moment; one must remember that it is summer and we have been blessed with a few moves that may be over-played, but nonetheless have provided some great moves. If you are a cautious and conservative trader like me, you are probably kicking yourself over a few hundred pips extra you could have gained had you not exited positions too early.\r\n\r\nRemember; no one should ever feel guilty about banking pips and few $$$. It’s a much better feeling the losing $$$. Like most of you I guess, we still look at the woulda, coulda and shoulda trades. It’s a normal reaction … but just move on.\r\n\r\nVery comfortable now in my new surroundings in Nova Scotia. It’s a great spot and much better for me trading in a bright open office with a view rather than the darkened room, with a huge fecking tree blocking out most of the natural light that I had previously in Quebec. These subtle differences do make a difference.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt would be very easy to repeat myself three or four times in various sections of the blog this week. It will be a check on the state of my mental health to see if I can avoid this!\r\n\r\nIt was a light week with regards to Economic data but holy fuck the central bank governors and presidents more than made up for that.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL and USD/CAD:\r\n\r\n\r\nPicture this: - An old man every morning switching on his machines and looking at the screens swearing at himself, “FFS why the feck I am not short this fecking pair” … this was me all week and guess what, I’ll still be doing it next week at this rate.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s LIVE WEBINAR (without getting on my soapbox), I predicted OIL lower to about $42.00 then a small bounce then a test of $40.00. So far it’s playing out.\r\n\r\nI need to get my ass in gear and have a USD/CAD short trade set up in position.\r\n\r\nOIL is a dirty old commodity and OPEC are an out of date collection of countries that lie to each other and the world about production because of pure greed. As the world becomes less and less reliant on middle eastern OIL the effectiveness of what OPEC does or says gets less and less\r\n\r\nI wish that that I could come down off that fence and say what I really mean.\r\n\r\nPutting my attempt at humour to one side, this is all about pure, basic and very simple Economic SUPPLY AND DEMAND.\r\n\r\nThis highly speculative market has lost its edge of late as many hedge funds who were big participants in the OIL markets are no longer around. The ability to push the price around is still there but the logic (did I actually use that word in association with OIL?) has long gone.\r\n\r\nSo basically, this is a SUPPLY AND DEMAND call and nothing else. I think that this message is hitting home with a bit more bite now.\r\n\r\nBack to the CAD…\r\n\r\nI am looking for mid 1.32’s for an entry short if possible but this looks unlikely if data continues to come in line or beat expectations.  As long as I am in short prior to the next BOC meeting at this stage these are my thoughts.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DRAGHI and the ECB:\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God. What a fecking gang of unprofessional idiots. They must have all been acting as the scarecrow from the wizard of Oz. Not a damn brain between the lot of them.\r\n\r\n“Unnamed sources” basically the ECB, shit themselves because the single currency strengthened, basically it leapt up like a salmon, and then they tell us a day later that we’re the fecking numpties as we misinterpreted Draghi’s speech. Bollocks basically double bollocks.\r\n\r\nThe FX market was on steroids for the day of Draghi’s speech (Tuesday) and the following day calamity reigned for many retail traders still long. As the “unnamed sources” sound-byte hit the wires everything EUR dropped 100-200 pips in an instant. I’d say that hurt a lot of people because the fills would have been poor, especially with the likes of FXCM! Did they do what they usually do in situations like this and just lock out traders?\r\n\r\nOver the rest of Wednesday the single currency reversed back to the previous day levels. Helter-skelter day!</li>\r\n 	<li>THE ECB ECONOMIC FORUM (Sintra, Portugal)\r\n\r\nDraghi was there as host, along with his three amigos, Carney (BOE), Poloz (BOC) and Kuroda (BOJ).\r\n\r\nThis was where “Carney the flip-flopper” came out of his closet to announce that he would be looking to raise after all… what a “plonker”.\r\n\r\nPoloz confirmed what he stated earlier on CNBC about removing accommodation from the BOC and to start looking to raise interest rates.\r\n\r\nKuroda, apart from needing to spend a few $$$ on dental work, announced nada, nothing new. The BOJ now remains the only central bank in true dovish, accommodative mode.\r\n\r\nMore about this topic later.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN:\r\n\r\nOn Tuesday I cut out of trades early after Draghi’s first speech ahead of Janet Yellen’s diary date.\r\n\r\nFFS, it was granny tells a fecking story around the fireside….\r\n\r\nI cut profitable trades to be sensible for “Storytime with Janet”. Never have I been so disappointed. No policies, no outlook, no guessing and no gossip; just stories about Ben and Merv “the swerve”.</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:\r\n\r\nThe negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am canceling the LIVE WEBINARS for the summer and will start up again in the fall/autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9617\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017-953x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"953\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nQuite a bit scheduled this week. This makes a change from recent weeks and a few items stand out for me.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The pick of the week for most traders but NOT me is Friday’s Non-Farm payroll numbers. I think I have had more luck on the lottery lately… at least with the lottery you stand a chance of winning.\r\n\r\nAs usual all your family favourites will be dragged onto CNBC, BLOOMBERG and FOX BUSINESS to talk shite about the numbers no one can predict. Frankly given the fact the US department of statistics only give us approximations because previous numbers are altered up and down, in fact previous, previous numbers are altered… it’s all rather a game to stay away from in my opinion. Paint a wall, take out your significant other, mow the lawn or just pick yer nose it’s better than the madness of NFP day.\r\n\r\nPrior to NFP we have ADP jobs data, no real help for NFP as last months numbers showed. The FOMC meeting minutes should be interesting to see how hawkish the FED really are. Is it all fur coat and no knickers, we should find out Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: A plethora of PMi data. Services and Construction should be strong but Manufacturing maybe a bit below. All are expected to be over 50.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: The RBA have a rate statement announcement plus we have Retail sales and a Trade balance number to look forward to. I am getting excited just thinking about these news items. I am well hedged the AUD at the moment so I couldn’t give a rats hairy arse what way the numbers go.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Stephen Poloz (BOC Governor), will be looking closely at the Trade balance and Jobs data no doubt with a BOC interest rate decision up very soon.\r\n\r\nPersonally, given the importance of OIL to the CAD economy and commodities in general, I think he will have more than just one eye on WTi.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9618\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017-1024x827.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"827\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9633\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9634\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9632\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9635\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9636\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9637\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9638\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Further information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 40% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me.\r\n\r\nI will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017. The opportunity to make pips with me is there and as you will see later in this section and on my webpage, I have a special promotion that was due to expire at the end of June, which I have extended until the open of the markets on July 2nd at 5PM EST, called “DOUBLE IT UP”.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, look at my promotion and website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MONTH TO DATE:  +1,203 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +2,405 pips</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>DO YOU WANT TO JOIN THE PREMIUM SERVICE?\r\n\r\n</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">There has never been a better time….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This promotion closes Sunday 2nd July at 5PM EST (Extended from June 30th)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE –  SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:\r\n</strong><strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the biggest and I believe the best subscriber promotion that I have ever offered.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">What is <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong> all about…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Basically, from now until 2nd of July at 5PM EST anyone who subscribes to the PREMIUM SERVICE through my “SUBSCRIBE HERE” tab at the top of my welcome page will have their subscription period doubled at no extra cost.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Confirmation of the <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP” </strong>will be contained in the “welcome on board documents” the accompanies your subscription confirmation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the best and most generous promotion that I have ever offered since starting the PREMIUM SERVICE and I hope that many of you take advantage.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Below are the dates of the DRIVE THRU blog for the remainder of this year, 2018 and 2019.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019-1024x621.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"621\" /></a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n\r\n<ol style=\"text-align: center;\" start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>\r\nWANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">July’s winner is:\r\ncarlos**********@gmail.com\r\n\r\nBy the time this blog is posted Carlos should be up and running with full access.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!</strong>\r\n\r\nLast week will be remembered for several things as far as I am concerned: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Draghi turns hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB tell us he wasn’t hawkish at all.</li>\r\n 	<li>Carney “flip flops” again.</li>\r\n 	<li>Poloz confirms he’s gone hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>Janet’s cozy fire side chat (non-event).</li>\r\n 	<li>Kuroda is not at the party with the other CB Governors.</li>\r\n 	<li>Donald Trump’s bizarre tweets (nothing unusual…I suppose).</li>\r\n 	<li>Rampant Commodity currencies.</li>\r\n 	<li>Theresa May surviving the Queens Speech vote.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThey were all interesting in their own right, but I want to focus on those bullet points at the top of the list.\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago (June 17th) I wrote in this SOAPBOX section about how I thought we as traders probably had a window of about 4/6 months when Central Bank policy divergence between the FED and the other G7 countries Central Banks would give us some strong directional trading opportunities.\r\n\r\nWith what happened last week, I think we can forget that.\r\n\r\nIn true ECB style, President Draghi announces to the world on Tuesday that the EURO AREA recovery was both strengthening and broadening. He added that the Central Bank can aid this covered by adjusting the parameters of it’s policy instruments. He added that the DEFLATION threat was over and reflationary forces were now at play.\r\n\r\nThis announcement was the catalyst for yields to swiftly move higher and this took the EUR/USD up around 150 pips as the single currency broadly strengthened across all EUR linked pairs. The USD (DXY) Index was crushed to hit lows.\r\n\r\nNow, he still had dovish undertones in his speech, but surely to God the ECB could have predicted the response by the markets.\r\n\r\nThe following day…the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away, at least for an hour or so anyway. In true ECB style of days gone by, out comes an announcement (as the EUR/USD was poking above 1.1400), from un-named sources that the markets read Draghi’s previous day’s speech all wrong, “He was Dovish not Hawkish”.\r\n\r\nWhat a load of crap that was. As mentioned earlier in the blog, all EUR related pairs dropped between 100 and 250 pips in an instant. My guess is that many traders were stopped out way beyond their stop loss levels as the move lower was swift with little or no stopping points on the way, one can just imagine the slippage some brokers would have transmitted to clients.\r\n\r\nOver the following couple of hours, the markets got a grip re-read what Draghi had said and ignored the “un-named source”. Now let’s get one thing absolutely clear. The ECB shit themselves over EUR appreciation across the board and thought they could walk back Draghi’s speech…. bloody idiots. The “un-named” source was an ECB underling of some sort.\r\n\r\nThe ECB has done this sort of thing (try to walk back press releases etc.) because they could not organize a piss up in a brewery.\r\n\r\nThe same day as the attempted walk back from the ECB, “Flip –Flopper” Carney was at it again. The BOE governor was so dovish a week earlier he dismissed the MPC vote of 5-3 at the BOE over a rate hike in sterling. One week later, he is now saying that rates could be moving upwards before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nCable rallied across the board, the GBP/USD by about 300 pips in the last few days of last week. It now resides around 1.3000.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC also announced that the BOC was looking to end its accommodative policy regarding the CAD.\r\n\r\nWas all this change of direction coordinated?  Was the fact that Janet Yellen, FED chair, in her cozy chat session later the same day after the Carney and Poloz announcements deliberately held without any mention of FED policies or US economic data references?\r\n\r\nIs the Pope catholic?\r\n\r\nAll of this was stage managed and coordinated down to the minute. The only screw up was the ECB, not for the first time misunderstanding the effect of the statement.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt at some time Central Bank policies would change around the world and from that perspective we should not be surprised, but it was the coordination of the message that was fascinating.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nThe first aspect about all of this I would like to mention is that from the BOE and ECB perspective nothing will probably change until closer to the end of the year, maybe even into early 2018. At least that’s my takeaway.\r\n\r\nDo we still have divergence with Central Banks?\r\n\r\nYes, but it’s now not as easy to trade because the markets will now be anticipating moves in interest rates and speculation will be at fever pitch from now on.\r\n\r\nWhat I do think is that the USD was crushed… over crushed and the likelihood of a bounce in the DXY is good.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, every word written or uttered by Draghi, Poloz and Flip-Flopper will be scrutinized beyond belief. The game keepers have now turned poachers for want of a better phrase.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago, in the archives of the DRIVE THRU, I wrote about Central Bank Governors / Presidents being treated as Rock Stars by the markets. I referred to this again after BREXIT when Carney had a walk of about 50 metres to get to the lectern to deliver his actions to support cable. All he needed on the walk were a few lasers borrowed from Pink Floyd and dry ice as he finally entered the conference room.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, we are back at this stage again.\r\n\r\nAs long as we don’t get the likes of Steve Liesmann from CNBC throwing his underpants on the stage when Janet Yellen walks in, in a Tom Jones copycat move made by his female fans, we should be alright.\r\n\r\nNow there is a picture to pour out your Sunday morning cornflakes to!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #243 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nDATE: 1st July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'game-keepers-now-poachers', '', '', '2017-07-01 08:38:00', '2017-07-01 13:38:00', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=9662', 0, 'post', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9663, 1, '2017-07-01 08:38:00', '2017-07-01 13:38:00', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf ever anyone says to you that FX trading is boring and un-eventful just remind them of the shenanigans that went on last week.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, ECB President and the “sources” my arse saying that the markets mis-judged his comments. What a load of bollocks.\r\n\r\nMark Carney the governor of the BOE doing what he does best “Flip-Flopping and finally, last but not least…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz governor of the BOC announcing that the BOC are en route to change policy away from supportive to hawkish by possibly looking to raise Canadian interest rates before the end of 2017 (I would say if oil drops through $40.00 that move could be delayed).\r\n\r\nThe three flutes named above have suddenly (coordinated?) turned from GAME KEEPERS to POACHERS vis-a-vis their interest rate policies.\r\n\r\nI will return to this matter later in the blog with the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nGetting back into the groove now, the PREMIUM SERVICE added about 300 pips last week and I am now back in the mode of CORE POSITIONS and stacking up LIMIT ORDERS.\r\n\r\nHaving said that, it is hard trading at the moment; one must remember that it is summer and we have been blessed with a few moves that may be over-played, but nonetheless have provided some great moves. If you are a cautious and conservative trader like me, you are probably kicking yourself over a few hundred pips extra you could have gained had you not exited positions too early.\r\n\r\nRemember; no one should ever feel guilty about banking pips and few $$$. It’s a much better feeling the losing $$$. Like most of you I guess, we still look at the woulda, coulda and shoulda trades. It’s a normal reaction … but just move on.\r\n\r\nVery comfortable now in my new surroundings in Nova Scotia. It’s a great spot and much better for me trading in a bright open office with a view rather than the darkened room, with a huge fecking tree blocking out most of the natural light that I had previously in Quebec. These subtle differences do make a difference.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt would be very easy to repeat myself three or four times in various sections of the blog this week. It will be a check on the state of my mental health to see if I can avoid this!\r\n\r\nIt was a light week with regards to Economic data but holy fuck the central bank governors and presidents more than made up for that.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL and USD/CAD:\r\n\r\n\r\nPicture this: - An old man every morning switching on his machines and looking at the screens swearing at himself, “FFS why the feck I am not short this fecking pair” … this was me all week and guess what, I’ll still be doing it next week at this rate.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s LIVE WEBINAR (without getting on my soapbox), I predicted OIL lower to about $42.00 then a small bounce then a test of $40.00. So far it’s playing out.\r\n\r\nI need to get my ass in gear and have a USD/CAD short trade set up in position.\r\n\r\nOIL is a dirty old commodity and OPEC are an out of date collection of countries that lie to each other and the world about production because of pure greed. As the world becomes less and less reliant on middle eastern OIL the effectiveness of what OPEC does or says gets less and less\r\n\r\nI wish that that I could come down off that fence and say what I really mean.\r\n\r\nPutting my attempt at humour to one side, this is all about pure, basic and very simple Economic SUPPLY AND DEMAND.\r\n\r\nThis highly speculative market has lost its edge of late as many hedge funds who were big participants in the OIL markets are no longer around. The ability to push the price around is still there but the logic (did I actually use that word in association with OIL?) has long gone.\r\n\r\nSo basically, this is a SUPPLY AND DEMAND call and nothing else. I think that this message is hitting home with a bit more bite now.\r\n\r\nBack to the CAD…\r\n\r\nI am looking for mid 1.32’s for an entry short if possible but this looks unlikely if data continues to come in line or beat expectations.  As long as I am in short prior to the next BOC meeting at this stage these are my thoughts.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DRAGHI and the ECB:\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God. What a fecking gang of unprofessional idiots. They must have all been acting as the scarecrow from the wizard of Oz. Not a damn brain between the lot of them.\r\n\r\n“Unnamed sources” basically the ECB, shit themselves because the single currency strengthened, basically it leapt up like a salmon, and then they tell us a day later that we’re the fecking numpties as we misinterpreted Draghi’s speech. Bollocks basically double bollocks.\r\n\r\nThe FX market was on steroids for the day of Draghi’s speech (Tuesday) and the following day calamity reigned for many retail traders still long. As the “unnamed sources” sound-byte hit the wires everything EUR dropped 100-200 pips in an instant. I’d say that hurt a lot of people because the fills would have been poor, especially with the likes of FXCM! Did they do what they usually do in situations like this and just lock out traders?\r\n\r\nOver the rest of Wednesday the single currency reversed back to the previous day levels. Helter-skelter day!</li>\r\n 	<li>THE ECB ECONOMIC FORUM (Sintra, Portugal)\r\n\r\nDraghi was there as host, along with his three amigos, Carney (BOE), Poloz (BOC) and Kuroda (BOJ).\r\n\r\nThis was where “Carney the flip-flopper” came out of his closet to announce that he would be looking to raise after all… what a “plonker”.\r\n\r\nPoloz confirmed what he stated earlier on CNBC about removing accommodation from the BOC and to start looking to raise interest rates.\r\n\r\nKuroda, apart from needing to spend a few $$$ on dental work, announced nada, nothing new. The BOJ now remains the only central bank in true dovish, accommodative mode.\r\n\r\nMore about this topic later.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN:\r\n\r\nOn Tuesday I cut out of trades early after Draghi’s first speech ahead of Janet Yellen’s diary date.\r\n\r\nFFS, it was granny tells a fecking story around the fireside….\r\n\r\nI cut profitable trades to be sensible for “Storytime with Janet”. Never have I been so disappointed. No policies, no outlook, no guessing and no gossip; just stories about Ben and Merv “the swerve”.</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:\r\n\r\nThe negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am canceling the LIVE WEBINARS for the summer and will start up again in the fall/autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9617\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017-953x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"953\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nQuite a bit scheduled this week. This makes a change from recent weeks and a few items stand out for me.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The pick of the week for most traders but NOT me is Friday’s Non-Farm payroll numbers. I think I have had more luck on the lottery lately… at least with the lottery you stand a chance of winning.\r\n\r\nAs usual all your family favourites will be dragged onto CNBC, BLOOMBERG and FOX BUSINESS to talk shite about the numbers no one can predict. Frankly given the fact the US department of statistics only give us approximations because previous numbers are altered up and down, in fact previous, previous numbers are altered… it’s all rather a game to stay away from in my opinion. Paint a wall, take out your significant other, mow the lawn or just pick yer nose it’s better than the madness of NFP day.\r\n\r\nPrior to NFP we have ADP jobs data, no real help for NFP as last months numbers showed. The FOMC meeting minutes should be interesting to see how hawkish the FED really are. Is it all fur coat and no knickers, we should find out Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: A plethora of PMi data. Services and Construction should be strong but Manufacturing maybe a bit below. All are expected to be over 50.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: The RBA have a rate statement announcement plus we have Retail sales and a Trade balance number to look forward to. I am getting excited just thinking about these news items. I am well hedged the AUD at the moment so I couldn’t give a rats hairy arse what way the numbers go.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Stephen Poloz (BOC Governor), will be looking closely at the Trade balance and Jobs data no doubt with a BOC interest rate decision up very soon.\r\n\r\nPersonally, given the importance of OIL to the CAD economy and commodities in general, I think he will have more than just one eye on WTi.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9618\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017-1024x827.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"827\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9633\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9634\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9632\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9635\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9636\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9637\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9638\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Further information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 40% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me.\r\n\r\nI will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017. The opportunity to make pips with me is there and as you will see later in this section and on my webpage, I have a special promotion that was due to expire at the end of June, which I have extended until the open of the markets on July 2nd at 5PM EST, called “DOUBLE IT UP”.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, look at my promotion and website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MONTH TO DATE:  +1,203 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +2,405 pips</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>DO YOU WANT TO JOIN THE PREMIUM SERVICE?\r\n\r\n</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">There has never been a better time….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This promotion closes Sunday 2nd July at 5PM EST (Extended from June 30th)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE –  SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:\r\n</strong><strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the biggest and I believe the best subscriber promotion that I have ever offered.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">What is <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong> all about…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Basically, from now until 2nd of July at 5PM EST anyone who subscribes to the PREMIUM SERVICE through my “SUBSCRIBE HERE” tab at the top of my welcome page will have their subscription period doubled at no extra cost.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Confirmation of the <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP” </strong>will be contained in the “welcome on board documents” the accompanies your subscription confirmation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the best and most generous promotion that I have ever offered since starting the PREMIUM SERVICE and I hope that many of you take advantage.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Below are the dates of the DRIVE THRU blog for the remainder of this year, 2018 and 2019.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019-1024x621.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"621\" /></a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n\r\n<ol style=\"text-align: center;\" start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>\r\nWANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">July’s winner is:\r\ncarlos**********@gmail.com\r\n\r\nBy the time this blog is posted Carlos should be up and running with full access.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!</strong>\r\n\r\nLast week will be remembered for several things as far as I am concerned: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Draghi turns hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB tell us he wasn’t hawkish at all.</li>\r\n 	<li>Carney “flip flops” again.</li>\r\n 	<li>Poloz confirms he’s gone hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>Janet’s cozy fire side chat (non-event).</li>\r\n 	<li>Kuroda is not at the party with the other CB Governors.</li>\r\n 	<li>Donald Trump’s bizarre tweets (nothing unusual…I suppose).</li>\r\n 	<li>Rampant Commodity currencies.</li>\r\n 	<li>Theresa May surviving the Queens Speech vote.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThey were all interesting in their own right, but I want to focus on those bullet points at the top of the list.\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago (June 17th) I wrote in this SOAPBOX section about how I thought we as traders probably had a window of about 4/6 months when Central Bank policy divergence between the FED and the other G7 countries Central Banks would give us some strong directional trading opportunities.\r\n\r\nWith what happened last week, I think we can forget that.\r\n\r\nIn true ECB style, President Draghi announces to the world on Tuesday that the EURO AREA recovery was both strengthening and broadening. He added that the Central Bank can aid this covered by adjusting the parameters of it’s policy instruments. He added that the DEFLATION threat was over and reflationary forces were now at play.\r\n\r\nThis announcement was the catalyst for yields to swiftly move higher and this took the EUR/USD up around 150 pips as the single currency broadly strengthened across all EUR linked pairs. The USD (DXY) Index was crushed to hit lows.\r\n\r\nNow, he still had dovish undertones in his speech, but surely to God the ECB could have predicted the response by the markets.\r\n\r\nThe following day…the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away, at least for an hour or so anyway. In true ECB style of days gone by, out comes an announcement (as the EUR/USD was poking above 1.1400), from un-named sources that the markets read Draghi’s previous day’s speech all wrong, “He was Dovish not Hawkish”.\r\n\r\nWhat a load of crap that was. As mentioned earlier in the blog, all EUR related pairs dropped between 100 and 250 pips in an instant. My guess is that many traders were stopped out way beyond their stop loss levels as the move lower was swift with little or no stopping points on the way, one can just imagine the slippage some brokers would have transmitted to clients.\r\n\r\nOver the following couple of hours, the markets got a grip re-read what Draghi had said and ignored the “un-named source”. Now let’s get one thing absolutely clear. The ECB shit themselves over EUR appreciation across the board and thought they could walk back Draghi’s speech…. bloody idiots. The “un-named” source was an ECB underling of some sort.\r\n\r\nThe ECB has done this sort of thing (try to walk back press releases etc.) because they could not organize a piss up in a brewery.\r\n\r\nThe same day as the attempted walk back from the ECB, “Flip –Flopper” Carney was at it again. The BOE governor was so dovish a week earlier he dismissed the MPC vote of 5-3 at the BOE over a rate hike in sterling. One week later, he is now saying that rates could be moving upwards before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nCable rallied across the board, the GBP/USD by about 300 pips in the last few days of last week. It now resides around 1.3000.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC also announced that the BOC was looking to end its accommodative policy regarding the CAD.\r\n\r\nWas all this change of direction coordinated?  Was the fact that Janet Yellen, FED chair, in her cozy chat session later the same day after the Carney and Poloz announcements deliberately held without any mention of FED policies or US economic data references?\r\n\r\nIs the Pope catholic?\r\n\r\nAll of this was stage managed and coordinated down to the minute. The only screw up was the ECB, not for the first time misunderstanding the effect of the statement.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt at some time Central Bank policies would change around the world and from that perspective we should not be surprised, but it was the coordination of the message that was fascinating.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nThe first aspect about all of this I would like to mention is that from the BOE and ECB perspective nothing will probably change until closer to the end of the year, maybe even into early 2018. At least that’s my takeaway.\r\n\r\nDo we still have divergence with Central Banks?\r\n\r\nYes, but it’s now not as easy to trade because the markets will now be anticipating moves in interest rates and speculation will be at fever pitch from now on.\r\n\r\nWhat I do think is that the USD was crushed… over crushed and the likelihood of a bounce in the DXY is good.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, every word written or uttered by Draghi, Poloz and Flip-Flopper will be scrutinized beyond belief. The game keepers have now turned poachers for want of a better phrase.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago, in the archives of the DRIVE THRU, I wrote about Central Bank Governors / Presidents being treated as Rock Stars by the markets. I referred to this again after BREXIT when Carney had a walk of about 50 metres to get to the lectern to deliver his actions to support cable. All he needed on the walk were a few lasers borrowed from Pink Floyd and dry ice as he finally entered the conference room.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, we are back at this stage again.\r\n\r\nAs long as we don’t get the likes of Steve Liesmann from CNBC throwing his underpants on the stage when Janet Yellen walks in, in a Tom Jones copycat move made by his female fans, we should be alright.\r\n\r\nNow there is a picture to pour out your Sunday morning cornflakes to!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #243 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nDATE: 1st July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9662-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-01 08:38:00', '2017-07-01 13:38:00', '', 9662, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9662-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(9665, 1, '2017-07-07 16:14:41', '2017-07-07 21:14:41', '', 'ECON DATA 09072017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'econ-data-09072017', '', '', '2017-07-08 10:58:51', '2017-07-08 15:58:51', '', 9681, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(9666, 1, '2017-07-07 16:14:48', '2017-07-07 21:14:48', '', 'TCHART 09072017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'tchart-09072017', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:00:05', '2017-07-08 16:00:05', '', 9681, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(9674, 1, '2017-07-07 16:17:00', '2017-07-07 21:17:00', '', 'AUDUSD D 09072017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'audusd-d-09072017', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:00:46', '2017-07-08 16:00:46', '', 9681, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(9675, 1, '2017-07-07 16:17:05', '2017-07-07 21:17:05', '', 'EURUSD D 09072017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'eurusd-d-09072017', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:00:23', '2017-07-08 16:00:23', '', 9681, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(9676, 1, '2017-07-07 16:17:10', '2017-07-07 21:17:10', '', 'GBPUSD D 09072017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'gbpusd-d-09072017', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:00:35', '2017-07-08 16:00:35', '', 9681, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(9677, 1, '2017-07-07 16:17:14', '2017-07-07 21:17:14', '', 'NZDUSD D 09072017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nzdusd-d-09072017', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:00:58', '2017-07-08 16:00:58', '', 9681, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(9678, 1, '2017-07-07 16:17:18', '2017-07-07 21:17:18', '', 'USDCAD D 09072017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdcad-d-09072017', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:01:32', '2017-07-08 16:01:32', '', 9681, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(9679, 1, '2017-07-07 16:17:23', '2017-07-07 21:17:23', '', 'USDCHF D 09072017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdchf-d-09072017', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:01:42', '2017-07-08 16:01:42', '', 9681, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(9680, 1, '2017-07-07 16:17:27', '2017-07-07 21:17:27', '', 'USDJPY D 09072017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdjpy-d-09072017', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:01:58', '2017-07-08 16:01:58', '', 9681, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9681, 1, '2017-07-08 11:28:10', '2017-07-08 16:28:10', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):Philip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.From the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nThe RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):All three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).Now, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).\r\n\r\nAfter the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.\r\n\r\nI realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.\r\n\r\nWhen is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!\r\n\r\nI just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data\r\n\r\nI am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.\r\n\r\nI just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.\r\n\r\nI think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWas it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?\r\n\r\nHmmn… good calls maybe!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):Indecision… indecision.Personally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.\r\n\r\nBalance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.\r\n\r\nNFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.\r\n\r\nI find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):Bucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:The helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.All this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.\r\n\r\nEven myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).The big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?Analysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.\r\n\r\nIf the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.\r\n\r\nHowever, should he not hike now, what would happen?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.\r\n\r\nI think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.\r\n\r\nMany Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:I hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.Just a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):Thursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.These will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWe added 675 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE annual total last week, plus counting the week before almost 1,000 pips in two weeks. I am happy with this.\r\n\r\nLast week, being FOMC Minutes and U.S. jobs data week, I closed out of many positions early to bank $$$ as you just never know what reaction to the news the markets will give you plus NFP for me is most of the time a bit of a lottery and from a conservative trading point of view it’s better to bank pips and $$$ rather than gamble positions away.\r\nThus, I will now be adding back positions over the next few days on pullbacks. I see many pairs such as EUR pairs a buy on dips scenario (EUR/CAD excepted) and I do want to sell into strength with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD once again.\r\n\r\nAs usual the issue with these trades is being patient, waiting for prices to come to come to you. This is the art of trading for the long haul not to get caught up in the emotion of moves that you are not participating in.\r\n\r\nIn addition, I am looking at the emerging market pairs once again; USD/MXN, USD/TRY and USD/ZAR. In my eyes these represent good value from a risk/reward perspective.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nI think that Janet Yellen’s testimony this week, will set the tone moving forward.\r\n\r\nIf she turns dovish again or in any way looks hesitant to keep raising rates the USD will get hammered. She holds the short / medium term keys to momentum over the summer in my opinion.\r\n\r\nAs you know, my views are that the FED will raise rates in line with “the dots” and regardless of economic data which they will pass off as “transitory” as their goal appears to be normalization as soon as possible.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nI need to start again after last week’s closeouts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9667\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017-963x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"963\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9668\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017-818x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"818\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #140 PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017', 'ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'approaching-tipping-point', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:28:10', '2017-07-08 16:28:10', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=9681', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9682, 1, '2017-07-08 11:04:46', '2017-07-08 16:04:46', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):\r\n\r\nPhilip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.\r\n\r\nFrom the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nThe RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):\r\n\r\nAll three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).\r\n\r\nNow, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).\r\n\r\nAfter the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.\r\n\r\nI realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.\r\n\r\nWhen is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!\r\n\r\nI just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data\r\n\r\nI am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.\r\n\r\nI just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.\r\n\r\nI think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWas it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?\r\n\r\nHmmn… good calls maybe!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):\r\n\r\nIndecision… indecision.\r\n\r\nPersonally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.\r\n\r\nBalance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.\r\n\r\nNFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.\r\n\r\nI find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:\r\n\r\nThe negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):\r\n\r\nBucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:\r\n\r\nThe helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.\r\n\r\nAll this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.\r\n\r\nEven myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).\r\n\r\nThe big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?\r\n\r\nAnalysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.\r\n\r\nIf the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.\r\n\r\nHowever, should he not hike now, what would happen?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.\r\n\r\nI think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.\r\n\r\nMany Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:\r\n\r\nI hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.\r\n\r\nJust a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):\r\n\r\nThursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.\r\n\r\nThese will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWe added 675 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE annual total last week, plus counting the week before almost 1,000 pips in two weeks. I am happy with this.\r\n\r\nLast week, being FOMC Minutes and U.S. jobs data week, I closed out of many positions early to bank $$$ as you just never know what reaction to the news the markets will give you plus NFP for me is most of the time a bit of a lottery and from a conservative trading point of view it’s better to bank pips and $$$ rather than gamble positions away.\r\nThus, I will now be adding back positions over the next few days on pullbacks. I see many pairs such as EUR pairs a buy on dips scenario (EUR/CAD excepted) and I do want to sell into strength with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD once again.\r\n\r\nAs usual the issue with these trades is being patient, waiting for prices to come to come to you. This is the art of trading for the long haul not to get caught up in the emotion of moves that you are not participating in.\r\n\r\nIn addition, I am looking at the emerging market pairs once again; USD/MXN, USD/TRY and USD/ZAR. In my eyes these represent good value from a risk/reward perspective.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nI think that Janet Yellen’s testimony this week, will set the tone moving forward.\r\n\r\nIf she turns dovish again or in any way looks hesitant to keep raising rates the USD will get hammered. She holds the short / medium term keys to momentum over the summer in my opinion.\r\n\r\nAs you know, my views are that the FED will raise rates in line with “the dots” and regardless of economic data which they will pass off as “transitory” as their goal appears to be normalization as soon as possible.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCORE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>I need to start again after last week’s closeouts.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9667\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017-963x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"963\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9668\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017-818x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"818\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #140 PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017', 'ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9681-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:04:46', '2017-07-08 16:04:46', '', 9681, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9681-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9683, 1, '2017-07-08 11:06:33', '2017-07-08 16:06:33', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):Philip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.\r\n\r\nFrom the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nThe RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):All three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).\r\n\r\nNow, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).\r\n\r\nAfter the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.\r\n\r\nI realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.\r\n\r\nWhen is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!\r\n\r\nI just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data\r\n\r\nI am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.\r\n\r\nI just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.\r\n\r\nI think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWas it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?\r\n\r\nHmmn… good calls maybe!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):Indecision… indecision.\r\n\r\nPersonally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.\r\n\r\nBalance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.\r\n\r\nNFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.\r\n\r\nI find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):Bucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:The helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.\r\n\r\nAll this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.\r\n\r\nEven myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).The big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?\r\n\r\nAnalysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.\r\n\r\nIf the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.\r\n\r\nHowever, should he not hike now, what would happen?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.\r\n\r\nI think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.\r\n\r\nMany Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:I hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.\r\n\r\nJust a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):Thursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.\r\n\r\nThese will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWe added 675 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE annual total last week, plus counting the week before almost 1,000 pips in two weeks. I am happy with this.\r\n\r\nLast week, being FOMC Minutes and U.S. jobs data week, I closed out of many positions early to bank $$$ as you just never know what reaction to the news the markets will give you plus NFP for me is most of the time a bit of a lottery and from a conservative trading point of view it’s better to bank pips and $$$ rather than gamble positions away.\r\nThus, I will now be adding back positions over the next few days on pullbacks. I see many pairs such as EUR pairs a buy on dips scenario (EUR/CAD excepted) and I do want to sell into strength with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD once again.\r\n\r\nAs usual the issue with these trades is being patient, waiting for prices to come to come to you. This is the art of trading for the long haul not to get caught up in the emotion of moves that you are not participating in.\r\n\r\nIn addition, I am looking at the emerging market pairs once again; USD/MXN, USD/TRY and USD/ZAR. In my eyes these represent good value from a risk/reward perspective.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nI think that Janet Yellen’s testimony this week, will set the tone moving forward.\r\n\r\nIf she turns dovish again or in any way looks hesitant to keep raising rates the USD will get hammered. She holds the short / medium term keys to momentum over the summer in my opinion.\r\n\r\nAs you know, my views are that the FED will raise rates in line with “the dots” and regardless of economic data which they will pass off as “transitory” as their goal appears to be normalization as soon as possible.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nI need to start again after last week’s closeouts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9667\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017-963x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"963\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9668\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017-818x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"818\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #140 PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017', 'ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9681-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:06:33', '2017-07-08 16:06:33', '', 9681, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9681-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9684, 1, '2017-07-08 11:35:03', '2017-07-08 16:35:03', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):Philip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.From the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.The RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):All three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).Now, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.The PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">After the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">When is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Was it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Hmmn… good calls maybe!</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):Indecision… indecision.Personally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.Balance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">NFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):Bucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:The helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.All this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.Even myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).The big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?Analysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.Can you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">If the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">However, should he not hike now, what would happen?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">In my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Many Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:I hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.Just a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):Thursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">These will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Time will tell.</p>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\n\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #244 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'approaching-tipping-point', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:35:03', '2017-07-08 16:35:03', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=9684', 0, 'post', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9685, 1, '2017-07-08 11:15:40', '2017-07-08 16:15:40', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):\r\n\r\nPhilip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.\r\n\r\nFrom the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nThe RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):\r\n\r\nAll three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).\r\n\r\nNow, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\r\nAfter the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.\r\n\r\nI realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.\r\n\r\nWhen is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!\r\n\r\nI just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data.\r\n\r\nI am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.\r\n\r\nI just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.\r\n\r\nI think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWas it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?\r\n\r\nHmmn… good calls maybe!\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):\r\n\r\nIndecision… indecision.\r\n\r\nPersonally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.\r\n\r\nBalance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\r\nNFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.\r\n\r\nI find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:\r\n\r\nThe negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):\r\n\r\nBucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:\r\n\r\nThe helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.\r\n\r\nAll this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.\r\n\r\nEven myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).\r\n\r\nThe big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?\r\n\r\nAnalysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\r\nIf the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.\r\n\r\nHowever, should he not hike now, what would happen?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.\r\n\r\nI think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Many Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:\r\n\r\nI hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.\r\n\r\nJust a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):\r\n\r\nThursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\r\nThese will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.\r\n</p>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\n\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #244 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9684-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:15:40', '2017-07-08 16:15:40', '', 9684, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9684-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9686, 1, '2017-07-08 11:17:09', '2017-07-08 16:17:09', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):Philip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.\r\n\r\nFrom the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nThe RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):All three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).\r\n\r\nNow, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">After the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">When is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Was it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Hmmn… good calls maybe!\r\n\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):Indecision… indecision.\r\n\r\nPersonally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.\r\n\r\nBalance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">NFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):Bucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:The helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.\r\n\r\nAll this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.\r\n\r\nEven myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).The big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?\r\n\r\nAnalysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">If the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">However, should he not hike now, what would happen?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">In my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Many Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:I hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.\r\n\r\nJust a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):Thursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">These will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Time will tell.\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\n\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #244 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9684-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:17:09', '2017-07-08 16:17:09', '', 9684, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9684-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9687, 1, '2017-07-08 11:17:46', '2017-07-08 16:17:46', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):Philip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.From the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nThe RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):All three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).Now, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">After the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">When is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Was it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Hmmn… good calls maybe!\r\n\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):Indecision… indecision.Personally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.\r\n\r\nBalance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">NFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.\r\n\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):Bucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:The helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.All this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.\r\n\r\nEven myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).The big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?Analysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">If the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">However, should he not hike now, what would happen?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">In my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Many Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:I hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.Just a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):Thursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">These will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Time will tell.</p>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\n\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #244 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9684-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:17:46', '2017-07-08 16:17:46', '', 9684, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9684-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9695, 1, '2017-07-08 11:28:10', '2017-07-08 16:28:10', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):Philip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.From the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nThe RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):All three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).Now, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).\r\n\r\nAfter the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.\r\n\r\nI realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.\r\n\r\nWhen is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!\r\n\r\nI just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data\r\n\r\nI am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.\r\n\r\nI just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.\r\n\r\nI think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWas it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?\r\n\r\nHmmn… good calls maybe!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):Indecision… indecision.Personally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.\r\n\r\nBalance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.\r\n\r\nNFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.\r\n\r\nI find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):Bucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:The helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.All this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.\r\n\r\nEven myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).The big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?Analysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.\r\n\r\nIf the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.\r\n\r\nHowever, should he not hike now, what would happen?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.\r\n\r\nI think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.\r\n\r\nMany Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:I hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.Just a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):Thursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.These will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWe added 675 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE annual total last week, plus counting the week before almost 1,000 pips in two weeks. I am happy with this.\r\n\r\nLast week, being FOMC Minutes and U.S. jobs data week, I closed out of many positions early to bank $$$ as you just never know what reaction to the news the markets will give you plus NFP for me is most of the time a bit of a lottery and from a conservative trading point of view it’s better to bank pips and $$$ rather than gamble positions away.\r\nThus, I will now be adding back positions over the next few days on pullbacks. I see many pairs such as EUR pairs a buy on dips scenario (EUR/CAD excepted) and I do want to sell into strength with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD once again.\r\n\r\nAs usual the issue with these trades is being patient, waiting for prices to come to come to you. This is the art of trading for the long haul not to get caught up in the emotion of moves that you are not participating in.\r\n\r\nIn addition, I am looking at the emerging market pairs once again; USD/MXN, USD/TRY and USD/ZAR. In my eyes these represent good value from a risk/reward perspective.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nI think that Janet Yellen’s testimony this week, will set the tone moving forward.\r\n\r\nIf she turns dovish again or in any way looks hesitant to keep raising rates the USD will get hammered. She holds the short / medium term keys to momentum over the summer in my opinion.\r\n\r\nAs you know, my views are that the FED will raise rates in line with “the dots” and regardless of economic data which they will pass off as “transitory” as their goal appears to be normalization as soon as possible.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nI need to start again after last week’s closeouts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9667\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017-963x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"963\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9668\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017-818x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"818\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #140 PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017', 'ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9681-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:28:10', '2017-07-08 16:28:10', '', 9681, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9681-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
