&nbsp;
<ol>
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong> THE FIRST SHOT – “THE SOAPBOX”:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
Equity traders were certainly on Prozac last week as the indices around the world leaped up like salmon out of a B.C. river then plummeted like a lead balloon only to come back and then reverse again. The intraday moves gave traders a wild ride in the office each day, I am probably not far off the truth when I say they were happy to have a shortened week due to the Easter holidays.

I suppose we should expect this sort of volatility in equities. The way that the DOW rose to 24,000 this year was crazy. So, expect the markets to behave in a crazy fashion when moving lower, or attempting to move lower! Do not forget most traders on Wall Street these days only know the “BUY THE DIP” approach to trading!

We had a month and quarter end last week, so I suppose we can apportion blame for some of the volatility to end of quarter window dressing.... maybe not!

In Forex, it was not as wild, but range limits were tested in quite a few pairs. I am not expecting these to be broken with the limited trading we have over the Easter weekend. In fact, I do not expect a “FULL” return to normal liquidity until the week commencing 9<sup>th</sup>April 2018, as many traders in Europe extend the Easter break.

Moving on...

There was not a huge amount of FX data on the economic calendar last week and to be honest I thought we drifted around in ranges. It was a week that will be very quickly forgotten in my opinion. TRUMP was quiet, TRADE WARS news was relatively low key and even BREXIT news was quiet. Last week on the 29<sup>th</sup>March officially marked the “one year to go” before the official BREXIT date on 29<sup>th</sup>March 2019 at 2300 CET. I have no doubt countdown clocks will start to appear throughout the UK!

Politically, LITTLE ROCKET MAN went to Beijing to meet President Xi Jinping. My take on this is that President Xi is probably pissed off that he was NOT invited to the talks due April/May between Kim Jong Un and TRUMP. I suspect ROCKET MAN was summoned to CHINA.

Whilst these leaders were meeting, moves were also a foot for leaders of NORTH and SOUTH KOREA to meet for talks. If that wasn’t enough, party guest 2018... Kim Jong is being lined up for meetings with Japanese leaders as well.

If TRUMP does manage to pull these objectives together and have a working denuclearization zone on the Korean peninsula, make NO MISTAKE this will be the greatest achievement of any U.S. President going back as far as the Kennedy’s with the Cuban Missile crisis.

If in the same period TRUMP gets “Intellectual Property” rules sorted with CHINA and a greater equilibrium in trade agreements, it will be achievements on a scale that no politician has ever been able to attain.

If TRUMP pulls these deals together I expect mass resignations from CNN based on public credibility. From time to time over the past two years or so, I have been listening to drivel, in fact on a couple of occasions I had thought that I pre-selected the Comedy Channel on my TV remote!

Let me get back to reality away from the hypothetical....

The revolving door at the entrance to the White House continues to spin. The latest to go was David Shulkin the Veterans affairs Secretary, removed because he was not moving fast enough to deal with the departments backlog of claims.

He is replaced by Ronny Jackson, who was basically TRUMP’s physician. TRUMP allegedly appointed him because of the way he dealt with the media over his physical examination.

Now this makes me wonder if the guy that has held TRUMP’s scrotum for his Presidential medical gets such a high-profile role in the government, what role in government is STORMY DANIELS going to get, I would say she held a damn sight more than that!

With regards to Forex...

It was a strange week, we traded ranges and the recent JPY strength was placed on hold as JPY pairs retreated. I think that this consolidation is quite normal given all the news that the markets are trying to digest. Plus, the biggest news of all is that we have a two-way market at the moment. RISK OFF is back in vogue and Wall Street does NOT like RISK OFF as it is more complicated.

To further emphasize the “rangey” marketplace conditions in FX, PREMIUM subscribers will note in section 4.4.2. that the SENTIMENT chart based around the currency pairs that I measure is not that much different from last week’s chart. I have pulled back on trades as I am waiting for a catalyst. I only have 1 x LIMIT ORDER in place and less live trades than usual.

From reading and listening to market analysts on TV, it sounds like the markets do not believe the FED vis-à-vis 3 rate hikes in 2018, never mind 4 rate hikes. The ECB are basically projecting market accommodation to infinity, they are so reluctant not to give a fraction of data regarding forward guidance of any meaningful substance, traders do NOT know what to do with the EUR.

Therefore, it stands to reason that with the most liquid pair in the FX market basically remaining in a very tight range, and that, most moves are triggered from how this pair reacts, it makes perfect sense to me why we have the current performance in FX. We are trapped in the EUR/USD from 1.2092 to 1.2560 range. Within the previous range we compress to a tighter range of 1.2240 to 1.2475.

Personally, I have taken a different overview. I blame the JPY. I think that a huge amount of month and Q1 end squaring and window dressing has taken place and this has mainly been seen through the JPY. Combine the RISK ON / RISK OFF element of this pair plus the crazy equity swings and U.S. 10 YR yield retreat lower. It’s always cool to blame something or someone, ask a politician...

Basically, we need a break out and it’s not that easy given we are news driven via geopolitical factors rather than economic data. This creates volatility but in FX not sustained moves.

Moving on to factors more easily achieved...

Big news for me and some updates and changes have happened already, my subscription option called the PREMIUM SERVICE is no more. It is now called WEEKLY FX PREMIUM.

From now and over the next 5/6 weeks there will be name changes taking place on Social Networks and my website will be having a long overdue facelift. I have done many of the easier tasks already, the heavy lifting as they say is well beyond my pay scale.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
 	<li><strong><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> THIS WEEKS IMPORTANT TRADE INFORMATION:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<u>2.1. ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>
</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.

<strong><a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/ECON-DATA.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11348" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/ECON-DATA.png" alt="" width="1024" height="985" /></a> </strong>

<u>2.2. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>

<strong>
<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/GEOPOLITICAL-DATA.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11349" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/GEOPOLITICAL-DATA.png" alt="" width="1024" height="540" /></a>
</strong>

<u>2.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>

<strong> <a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/T-CHART-31032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11386" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/T-CHART-31032018.png" alt="" width="1024" height="724" /></a></strong>

<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>

<u>2.4. USD OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u>

Nothing much has changed from last week. We remain in the TRUMP downtrend and remain range bound as seen on the attached chart.

Longer timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.

Initially, the recent lows of 88.20 need to be tested first and obviously USD bears have this level firmly set in their sights.

The BULLS need to take out 90.43 in my opinion as absolute minimum to get me thinking that the “KING $ is back”.

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/DXY-31032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11388" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/DXY-31032018.png" alt="" width="1822" height="877" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>

<u>2.5. USD TRADING CHARTS:</u>

<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>

The Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.

We have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2240 to 1.2480.

This pair is waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to move it one way or the other.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/EURUSD-D-31032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11389" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/EURUSD-D-31032018.png" alt="" width="1411" height="570" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>

Trend lines galore on this chart. Overhead resistance is at 1.4240. There are lots of buyers ready to cap moves higher here. It will take an excellent piece of BREXIT data to thrust through that level.

We are currently stopped at 1.4000, obviously a huge psychological level and a confluence of trend lines as well as the 50% Fibonacci level of the recent low to high move.

If we break lower I expect buyers before 1.3950.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/GBPUSD-240M-31032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11390" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/GBPUSD-240M-31032018.png" alt="" width="1411" height="570" /></a>

&nbsp;

<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>

We stopped the move lower at 0.7640 and spiked nicely back to 0.7700. On the 60M chart there was nice BULL FLAG that played out last Thursday.

I believe that there is a good possibility as long as TRADE WAR concerns are parked that we could see a recovery move back to test the trend line around 0.7780. Time will tell.

Should TRADE WAR Concerns rise again as far as I am concerned a move lower beyond the support trend line to 0.7500 is a definite possibility.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/AUDUSDD-31032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11387" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/AUDUSDD-31032018.png" alt="" width="1411" height="570" /></a>

&nbsp;

<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>

Have we had a false breakdown?

From the chart below, you can see the move lower through 0.7176 on FOMC day, then we have seen a swift move higher. Am I bullish? No, I believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7350.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/NZDUSD-D-31032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11391" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/NZDUSD-D-31032018.png" alt="" width="1411" height="570" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>

Quite a few lines and levels on the chart below.
<ol>
 	<li>The range PURPLE lines 1.2860 to 1.2940.</li>
 	<li>Trend line MAROON resistance at 1.2910. This was a big resistance level a while back that held up several upside moves.</li>
 	<li>3000 BLACK line... my preferred entry to go short.</li>
</ol>
What does it all mean? From my perspective, it’s either the range limits to short from or if we are very lucky around the 1.3000 level.

One of my ELLIOT WAVE buddies is looking for a move as high as the 2016 trend line around 1.3150. I thought I was ambitious!

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDCAD-240M-31302018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11392" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDCAD-240M-31302018.png" alt="" width="1411" height="570" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>

As you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.

There is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850. I am a little reluctant to aggressively trade the CHF given its flight to safety and neutrality attraction.

We are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDCHF-W-31032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11393" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDCHF-W-31032018.png" alt="" width="1411" height="570" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>

We are in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.

However, we have spiked to trend line resistance around 107.00. A short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.

The JPY is very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDJPY-W-31032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11394" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDJPY-W-31032018.png" alt="" width="1411" height="570" /></a>

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="3">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
<u>3.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>

(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PS-SUMMARY-MARCH-2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11366" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PS-SUMMARY-MARCH-2.png" alt="" width="1024" height="803" /></a>

You can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 is roughly as follows: -
<ul>
 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>
 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>
 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>
 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>
 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>
</ul>
This represents a great value way to subscribe…

Go to my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="4">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
(This section is for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM ONLY)

<u>4.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>

Last week I removed an old AUD/NZD (POS540) trade that I had been carrying for some time. It was a big pip losing trade but in terms of $$$ not huge. Annoyingly, I may have closed it too early as there is now, of course, a bounce in progress!

Moving forward, there is another AUD/NZD trade (POS611), which is out of the money, but my thoughts are that we could see a bounce to 1.0820 / 1.0850. I will review the 3 LIVE trades I have at that level (assuming we get there) and I may net all 3 out at the same time.

Trading last week was rather strange. We never saw the same volatility in FX as was seen in equities, but we did see JPY weakness creep back in and I was taken on a USD/JPY short trade for 160 pips!

I am now looking to short EUR/JPY and USD/JPY from higher levels.

The AUD looks to have support around 0.7650, this area has multiple confluences. This contributed to the AUD/NZD spike, but all the praise for the spike should go to the NZD as it now appears to have lost the lustre it has had of late. The NZD/USD is toying with 0.7175. If this level caves.... it should be a really good continuation move. However, be aware 7 days ago that level broke only for a “RIP” higher and a false breakdown move was confirmed.

<u>MARCH 2018 PERFORANCE:</u>

MONTH TOTAL:                   1,070 pips
YEAR TO DATE:                  4,962 pips

The final totals reduced a little from last week as I covered a large loss-making trade (POS540 AUD/NZD loss of 635 pips)

Pips are being made but the markets are still a bit of a challenge to be honest. I do NOT like trading around TRUMP tweets. I know that some of you are struggling with this as well, but to remain in trades, stops need to be wider and position sizes still restricted to ensure the “chop” does not make you a victim.

Profit and Loss ratios are good and in line with objectives, the pip total of 2018 versus 2017 is 3,542 pips greater this year than at the same time last year. All TRADE STYLES are generating income albeit the shorter-term trades still only account for less than 33% of the overall trades completed.

I know that most action is taking place during the New York / London session, but I cannot do anything about that, especially considering that we are really being governed by the TRUMP NARRATIVE for what seems like 99.99% of the available trading time. I just do not see this changing in the foreseeable future, that is just fact.

I have a couple of trading buddies in Australia who “dabble” with algorithmic trading. They actually had me looking at it for a while late last year / early this year, they are seasoned traders both manual and automatic.

Algorithmic trading is suffering at the moment as well, as the moves are not continuous or consistent and “algo” traders relying on averages, ATR’s, highs and lows or other indicators such as trend, oscillators or bands to trigger entry and exits are being “shafted” for want of a better word.

It’s not easy from whichever view you look at the markets at the moment.

<u>
4.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW I WILL TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>

It is a shortened week this week, even though the New York traders are back at their desks on Monday. The civilized world has Easter Monday as a holiday and I think the antipodean countries are away for Tuesday as well.  All that does is tell me not to rely on Asian trading until Wednesday at the earliest. If you had previously thought Asian trading was a “tread careful area” before this week, it has the potential to be a minefield with reduced institutions involved until the mid-week.

With the above said I will be looking to add set ups with USD/CAD. I am looking for as close to 1.3000 as possible. I nearly pressed the button at 1.2940 last week, but I am trying to hold out.

The words that I would use to describe my views on trading this week would be “with caution and with more thought than usual”.

Having said that there are opportunities to add to existing trades that are currently under the water, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/USD. It’s all about selecting the right level to enter.

<u>
4.3. A LOOK AT CROSS-RATES &amp; EMERGING MARKETS PAIRS:</u>

Over the past week the USD majors suffered from range trading and therefore as a result of that the cross-rate and EM pairs have really been mostly treading water. There were a couple of pairs that stood out though.

<u>4.3.1. CROSS RATES</u>:

The cross-rate pair that stood out for me last week was the EUR/AUD. As the JPY weakened across the board the “RISK ON / RISK OFF” debate rose again. Add to this the move lower by the AUD that stopped abruptly on the news that the TRADE WARS with CHINA were possibly not going to produce blood on the streets and that discussions were reportedly taking place. The Aussie, then stopped the move lower at a confluence area and began a recovery.

I was trading EUR/AUD long through “RISK OFF”. I closed the open trade and set up a short trade instead (MOM041), which is still open.

GBP cross rate pairs suffered as the cable ran out of steam circa.1.4240.

JPY crosses I think are setting up nicely to re-short. These are on my RADAR. It is all a question of where the USD/JPY decides to fail at. I had thought that 106.50 would have contained the USD/JPY but sadly not, and a losing trade ended with that thought!!

I would like a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line around 108.00. That level may be too ambitious. When the USD/JPY fails that's the “go” sign for most of the JPY crosses.

<u>
4.3.2. EMERGING MARKETS:</u>

I have missed some moves with my EM pairs. For example, the USD/MXN is continuing to fail and is trading very heavy. It looks like a test of 17.6000 area could be on the cards. I took my last trade (MOM040) off the table, way too hasty on some NAFTA news, which ultimately proved to be nothing more than BS.

As the USD majors tread water, I am a little hesitant to leap in with EM pairs. They can be slippery little feckers at times.

&nbsp;

<u>4.4. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>

&nbsp;

<u>4.4.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>

I am still focused on the JPY.

The TRADE WARS debate did not play out the way that I had thought it might, so I am waiting to step in and short JPY pairs.

The NZD was very close to the precipice of 0.7175. It spiked up, but it is hovering around 50 pips away. A break below and more importantly a close below 0.7175 would be very bearish for the pair.

Right now, I am looking at: - USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY and USD/CAD.

In addition, the following pairs have trades that are currently “under water”, I would not mind adding again: - GBP/USD, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD.

&nbsp;

<u>4.4.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>

The USD “SENTIMENT CHART” has not changed much from last week. It is not aligned and therefore that is one good reason why the markets are difficult at the moment.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/MARKET-SENTIMENT-31032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11352" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/MARKET-SENTIMENT-31032018.png" alt="" width="856" height="1024" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>4.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>

<u>4.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LIVE-31032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11351" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LIVE-31032018.png" alt="" width="704" height="1024" /></a>

<u>4.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LIMIT-ORDERS-31032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11350" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LIMIT-ORDERS-31032018.png" alt="" width="822" height="1024" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>4.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>

I show below changes that are about to happen for European FX traders.

I have a print out that summarizes the European Securities and Markets Authority changes in leverage. There may be more to come as soon as I receive something I will let you know.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/FX-BROKERS-SECTION.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11353" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/FX-BROKERS-SECTION.png" alt="" width="873" height="1024" /></a>

&nbsp;
<ol start="5">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,

As usual…

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Twitter: @weeklyfxpremium
<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/
</a>BLOG VERSION: #172 THE PREMIUM SERVICE
DATE: 31st March 2018