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(9696, 1, '2017-07-08 11:35:03', '2017-07-08 16:35:03', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):Philip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.From the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.The RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):All three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).Now, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.The PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">After the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">When is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Was it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Hmmn… good calls maybe!</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):Indecision… indecision.Personally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.Balance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">NFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):Bucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:The helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.All this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.Even myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).The big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?Analysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.Can you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">If the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">However, should he not hike now, what would happen?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">In my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Many Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:I hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.Just a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):Thursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">These will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Time will tell.</p>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\n\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #244 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9684-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-08 11:35:03', '2017-07-08 16:35:03', '', 9684, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9684-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9717, 1, '2017-07-15 06:56:38', '2017-07-15 11:56:38', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWell that was an interesting week to say the least. On Wednesday night, I was convinced that the FED had decided upon a change of direction with its monetary policy and by midafternoon on Thursday I was less certain.\r\n\r\nI am now asking myself if these policy announcements followed by walk backs by Central bank leaders are coordinated or is it just pressure of the job or is it a bit of incompetence or both. Whatever way you want to describe it I would use the word unconvincing.\r\n\r\nAll we want as traders, especially with FX is clarity. We couldn’t give a rat’s hairy ass if its positive, negative, bullish, bearish, hawkish or dovish; we just want clarity.\r\n\r\nI am now 100% convinced that we do not get clarity because the Central Bank governors / presidents are as much in dark as most people as to what is actually happening in their own economies. Everything now is so inter-linked we live in different times than that of Trichet and Greenspan and the old-school approaches are no longer relevant.\r\n\r\nLast week I wrote about a TIPPING POINT. I think we are there a lot faster than I thought and it will be FX that starts it.\r\n\r\nMore is at play now that just gamekeepers turning poachers and doves becoming hawks. I see a possible major RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT taking place in the FX market. It has the added spice of possibly occurring during the summer when trading volumes are low and markets thin and illiquid.\r\n\r\nI also believe that the FED was the final nail in the coffin, the straw that broke the camel’s back to make this a real possibility.\r\n\r\nMore of this in the “SOAPBOX” later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>CAD (BOC):\r\n\r\nI have been critical of Stephen Poloz in the past through lack of decision, being far too “CONSERVATIVE” in approach, which is the Canadian way irrespective of political persuasion.\r\n\r\nAbout a month ago, Poloz’s Senior Deputy Governor, Carolyn Wilkins (In Canada, we love full employment so there’s probably a great hierarchy, family tree spreadsheet inside the BOC), announced that the time to tighten BOC policy and look to raise rates was basically approaching. The USD/CAD exchange rate fell from the 1.3500 area and now sits circa. 1.2700. That is an 8 cents drop. Unbelievable; and in normal circumstances I would have said equivalent to a about a 1% -1.5% interest rate change. The BOC raised by 0.25% and it could be a one and done event this year.\r\n\r\nFair play; one of the biggest issues and maybe reasoning behind this rate rise had to be the housing bubbles in Toronto and Vancouver.  8 cents move in the exchange rate is the equivalent to a tax on house purchases for overseas buyers, who are really to blame for the housing bubble, squeezing prices up. Their cost to fund CAD$ has increased by the 8-cent move.\r\n\r\nI expected on Thursday the day after the USD/CAD, GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD were slaughtered for a bounce back of sorts. Of sorts are the words to use. On Thursday feck all of a spike higher. The CAD languished around its lows. CAD strength is back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP (Employment Data, Export numbers and BREXIT):\r\n\r\nA much better week this week for the UK data releases.\r\n\r\nEmployment numbers were good and Export figures positive. Deputy governor Broadbent also went on the wires and said that now is NOT the time to be raising interest rates. No doubt this support got him a big kiss from Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are still on-going and leaks are almost nonexistent. Either the wine being drunk is so damn good those involved are incapable of speech to report on progress or they have done feck all but just look across the table at each other. Boris Johnson (UK Foreign Minister and BREXIT champion) did offer up a quote during the week, when in reference to the costs of the UK divorce from the EUROPEAN UNION, he said that the numbers quoted by the EU were extortion and that the EU could whistle for it to be paid!\r\n\r\nSo matters are progressing nicely</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (Janet Yellen Bi-Annual testimony, CPi and Retail Sales):\r\n\r\nWell she certainly surprised with her more DOVISH statement to the hill on the state of the FED and its Monetary Policy approach and progress towards its objectives. More about this later in the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nWith regards to the CPI and Retail Sales data, it was really poor and the USD was taken to the woodshed and smacked.\r\n\r\nThe future does not look good for USD bulls.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR (ECB):\r\n\r\nIt has been announced that Mario Draghi (ECB President) will attend this years FED symposium in Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nThis announcement has fueled speculation that he may use this event to warm the markets up to the future of the ECB bond buying program. ECB TAPERING is the hot topic at the moment, we had all the shenanigans at the ECB forum last month in Sintra, Portugal when Draghi’s hawkish comments were attempted to be walked back by “unnamed sources!” … my arse; that was the ECB who pooped their pants when they saw the EUR reaction to a tightening policy.\r\n\r\nI would say invest in “Depends**” because the entire staff at the ECB will be wearing them when the symposium takes place.\r\n\r\nI would have thought that the ECB would stay tight lipped and say nothing or do nothing until the year end. If Draghi puts one word out of place, never mind an entire sentence, the single currency will rip higher on the mere mention of tightening never mind a TAPERING exit program.\r\n\r\n<em>** For those of you who live outside of North America.\r\n\r\nHere is the google search for Depend (for men and women)\r\n\r\nTake Control of Leaks by Finding the Protection That\'s Right for You. Fast Absorption · All Around Leg Elastics · Odour Control · Great Protection · Increased Flexibility Types: Fit-Flex®, Real Fit® Briefs, Depend® Shield, Adjustable Underwear, Protection with Tabs</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9699\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017-1024x990.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"990\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>GBP: It is a big week data wise for the UK. We have CPi, Mark Carney’s testimony to the parliamentary committee on Inflation and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nI am still very cagey trading the cable at the moment. My bias was upside but the economic data of late has been poor switching my bias to sell. This week’s data will be confirmation of my switch in bias or just confusion.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR: Mario Draghi has his Press Conference this week, when all eyes and ears will be on “TAPERING” clues. Whatever happens, the single currency will have its usual wild roller-coaster ride up and down for a couple of hours. I just cannot see Draghi committing to anything or hinting at anything. It is the status quo for me, especially with the Jackson Hole symposium attendance being confirmed all attention will be focused there.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: Jobs data this week. Good numbers will confirm the AUD breakout and poor numbers will bring back the sceptics. It could be an either way report. Winter employment data releases are always a bit of a lottery as seasonal employment comes into play.\r\n\r\nWe also get at the beginning of the week the last set of minutes from the RBA. If you recall, the last statement from the RBA disappointed the market and sent the AUD/USD lower by 100+ pips because the RBA stayed neutral. This could be interesting to read.\r\n\r\nWill it affect the strengthening AUD that we have seen since Janet Yellen’s testimony earlier in the week?</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY: No doubt a yawn fest. I cannot see the BOJ saying or doing anything new except committing to the existing QE and QQE programs that are in place.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: CPi and Retail Sales data is released on Friday. More good numbers would in my opinion send the USD/CAD towards the next support area of 1.2300.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9700\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017-1024x856.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"856\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\nEUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9711\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9712\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9710\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9713\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9714\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9715\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9716\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,288 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,693 pips\r\n</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWe added 613 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE annual total last week. The tally is starting to gather momentum. I am very happy with this, it would have been a lot more but I had three or four poor loss making trades last week.\r\n\r\nI have spoken with a couple of you via SKYPE review meetings last week on the changing FUNDAMENTALS following Janet Yellen’s testimony in D.C. last week.\r\n\r\nLast week I talked about a TIPPING POINT.\r\n\r\nI see this change in direction of FED policy as a bit of a game changer. At least I think it’s a change. Wednesday, it was, Thursday she walked it back a bit. I am referring to moving away from normalization in favour of selling off “TAPERING” the FED balance sheet. This move has fueled the strengthening in particular, the commodity currencies.\r\n\r\nSo many pairs are now in breakout territory against key resistance levels or close to key support levels. I see this as a potential STRUCTURAL SHIFT (more later about these thoughts) … hence my hesitation after Yellen. I was waiting on a further walk back / clarification from the FED. All I saw was “Kaplan” stating that a gradual unwinding of the FED balance sheet should have a limited effect on the markets and that weak inflation is transitory… just the usual bollocks bullsh*t.\r\nThe poor CPi and Retail Sales data that was released on Friday pushed the limits on many pairs even more, so I decided to wait for the weekly closing candles to get a proper picture from which to move into this week with trade set ups.\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTALLY; I do see a sea change happening, the USD is on its way lower in my opinion, the question is of course for how long? That depends on the FED policy of course. If Yellen stops raising rates in favour of balance sheet tapering this does change my views moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nI stated last week that Janet Yellen’s Capitol Hill testimony would set the “Tone” for the markets moving forward. It has, but not in the way that I was expecting.\r\n\r\nWith a lot of poor U.S. data emerging and the TRUMP administration floundering going from one media disaster to the next, with gross inconsistencies and lies that are easy to prove being exposed, I can only think that the USD is in for a severe caning (see DXY chart below)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/DXY-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9701\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/DXY-16072017-1024x503.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"503\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom one of my last LIVE WEBINARS, in fact, I think that it was the final one before my summer break, I showed this WEEKLY USD$ (DXY) INDEX chart and said that if things got tough for the USD this potential bear flag could play out… well things are getting tough for the USD and the bear flag is in play with a measured move to 94.58. It could go further. At the moment, there is no love for the USD.\r\n\r\nTherefore, moving forward at least in the short to medium term I can see more USD weakness. My issue as always is, will this be across the board? That is the $64,000.00 question.\r\n\r\nI can see commodity currencies having a field day as well as the single currency which is the driver of the DXY. A lot depends on equities to gauge the JPY reaction, and, of course, BREXIT for the GBP.\r\n\r\nIt’s all change… bear with me for a couple of days.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CORE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>This may take a few days. At the moment, as you would have noticed late Friday I added a lot of trades around the AUD which is in breakout territory. If we see a move above 0.7850 stick this week, I will be adding aggressively. The RBA Meeting Minutes will be my first key, with the jobs data later in the week.\r\n\r\nIn addition to the AUD completing the week at highs, so did the GBP and the CAD. The GBP I am not convinced about but the CAD to me is on a death spiral. I looked at a longer-term chart the other day on possible measured moves of the USD/CAD and it was 1.1500... yikes.\r\n\r\nThere are plenty of opportunities we just need patience to get there.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9703\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-16072017-978x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"978\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9702\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-16072017-918x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"918\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> AN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT IS ON THE WAY </strong></p>\r\nLast week I wrote about how I believed were we were approaching a TIPPING POINT in the markets. Whilst I believe 100% in what I write, I did not think that one week later we would be at said TIPPING POINT, in fact, in my opinion, we are at what is a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nWhat do I mean?\r\n\r\nLet me start with some pre-amble, the much-awaited Janet Yellen bi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill, which must have left many people shaking their heads wondering WTF. I found her unconvincing and dare I suggest this but it’s not going to be her problem to fix as her tenure is up early next year and her replacement will be the seat on the hill in front of the politicians.\r\n\r\nI struggle with these U.S. committees, no one really asks questions and if they do they cut the answer short and most of the time we just get statements of position rather than questions. It’s all rather amateurish at times. Some of the committee members were more interested in scoring party points than actually being focused on the matter in hand. It does however, parade out in front of the world allegedly the best representatives of the people that the U.S. has… God help us all.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts / highlights / lowlights on the two-day testimony were: -\r\n\r\nINFLATION:\r\n\r\nWhat inflation?\r\n\r\nShe said that Inflation should rebound, but the FED could alter policy if inflation softness persists. Basically, she is stuck with the 2% goal that hasn’t been achieved for, I don’t know 5 years, 7 years?\r\n\r\nIf I had set targets like this back in the corporate world that I did not achieve never mind beat, I would be out on my arse looking for a new job!\r\n\r\nHer commentary was along the lines of FED POLICY should see the objective hit in the next few years. FED POLICY so far hasn’t done it, why on earth would anyone think that the FED has suddenly found the secret sauce?\r\n\r\n\r\nFED BALANCE SHEET, INTEREST RATES and MONETARY POLICY:\r\n\r\nThis is what caused all the twitchy bottoms.\r\n\r\nWith regards to monetary policy, she was DOVISH.  Although the Fed will begin TAPERING its balance sheet and although it will continue to gradually raise interest rates, interest rates will no longer be as high as before as seen in previous economic cycles and if inflation does NOT perk up the FED will slow down on raising rates.\r\n\r\nThe FED intends to raise rates as unemployment rates keep falling. Hmmn\r\nOn Day Two, Janet Yellen basically re-worked the same as day one although she did walk back comments made about whether she believed that there would ever be another great Financial crisis?\r\nDay one it was No.\r\n\r\nDay two we received this commentary. She talked about increased banking resilience and the fact so much has been done to strengthen banking capital and liquidity requirements should another crisis occur. She was happy to say that with Bank stress test results there was great improvement in risk management and capital planning.\r\n\r\nShe summed it up by saying that whilst the FED could never be confident that there will never be another financial crisis, there has been significant work and improvements made to best protect against an economic downturn.\r\n\r\nI keep saying that she unconvincing, you can add unimpressive if you want. She talks the talk but I think no-one really believe a word that comes out of the FED as much as they used to. Everything is transitory, data dependent then that no longer appears to matter.\r\n\r\nIN SUMMARY:\r\n\r\nSo; after all that, we received really poor CPi and Retail sales data on Friday last week and the USD received another whacking!\r\n\r\nFrom behind my desk it looks like it’s going to be a long hot summer for USD bulls. I just cannot see how it can come back quickly from: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>YELLEN’s change of focus, unimpressive, lack lustre performance on Capitol Hill. She has really said without saying it that rates are going nowhere in the near future. We may see the next hike in December 2017.</li>\r\n 	<li>A continuing bad run of weak / poor U.S. data after previously released poor data.</li>\r\n 	<li>The on-going political woes of the TRUMP administration. It just keeps scoring own goal after own goal. How did this guy ever run a business? It’s frankly shambolic.</li>\r\n 	<li>Normalization around the world by other G7 central banks. This will affect the USD as other currencies strengthen through their own Central Bank normalization policies.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nItems 1 and 4 above are strategic and structural. These are not whims!\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s Capitol Hill performance was in my opinion was possibly the final nail in the coffin that has instigated an FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT that could take place this summer when markets are slow and trading volumes are thin.\r\n\r\n\r\nTRADING MOVING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nFirstly, let’s not get carried away, even though it sounds like I have already.\r\n\r\nWe are trading in the summer. Ranges are always tested and it is a desperate time of the year for false breakouts and breakdowns. Having said that: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CAD, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY to name just a few currency pairs are in breakout / breakdown mode. Range extremes are being tested and should they be broken potentially big moves are afoot. Without doubt this move by the FED benefits the commodity currencies whether their central banks want it to or not.\r\n\r\nNOTE: The BOC has already led the way and in the past month the CAD$ has appreciated by over 8 cents. I am not sure that the RBA or the RBNZ would appreciate such a move. They may not have much of a say in what initially happens. Right now, the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in break out territory toying with really good and strong previous resistance levels.\r\n\r\nWith a move across most G7 central banks to normalize sooner rather later, the market is testing and pushing levels that during the slower thin markets could just give way and moves could be explosive. Perhaps, we will not see the usual false moves that we have seen in past summers.\r\n\r\nWe could see and I would NOT rule it out - a massive summer STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nShould one currency USD major breakout, it will affect its cross rates and then like a domino effect the market all pushes and pulls to re-align value.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion the big loser should this happen will be the USD.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #141 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nDATE: 16th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'AN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT  IS ON THE WAY', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'fx-structural-re-alignment-way', '', '', '2017-07-15 06:56:38', '2017-07-15 11:56:38', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=9717', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
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(9718, 1, '2017-07-15 06:56:38', '2017-07-15 11:56:38', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWell that was an interesting week to say the least. On Wednesday night, I was convinced that the FED had decided upon a change of direction with its monetary policy and by midafternoon on Thursday I was less certain.\r\n\r\nI am now asking myself if these policy announcements followed by walk backs by Central bank leaders are coordinated or is it just pressure of the job or is it a bit of incompetence or both. Whatever way you want to describe it I would use the word unconvincing.\r\n\r\nAll we want as traders, especially with FX is clarity. We couldn’t give a rat’s hairy ass if its positive, negative, bullish, bearish, hawkish or dovish; we just want clarity.\r\n\r\nI am now 100% convinced that we do not get clarity because the Central Bank governors / presidents are as much in dark as most people as to what is actually happening in their own economies. Everything now is so inter-linked we live in different times than that of Trichet and Greenspan and the old-school approaches are no longer relevant.\r\n\r\nLast week I wrote about a TIPPING POINT. I think we are there a lot faster than I thought and it will be FX that starts it.\r\n\r\nMore is at play now that just gamekeepers turning poachers and doves becoming hawks. I see a possible major RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT taking place in the FX market. It has the added spice of possibly occurring during the summer when trading volumes are low and markets thin and illiquid.\r\n\r\nI also believe that the FED was the final nail in the coffin, the straw that broke the camel’s back to make this a real possibility.\r\n\r\nMore of this in the “SOAPBOX” later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>CAD (BOC):\r\n\r\nI have been critical of Stephen Poloz in the past through lack of decision, being far too “CONSERVATIVE” in approach, which is the Canadian way irrespective of political persuasion.\r\n\r\nAbout a month ago, Poloz’s Senior Deputy Governor, Carolyn Wilkins (In Canada, we love full employment so there’s probably a great hierarchy, family tree spreadsheet inside the BOC), announced that the time to tighten BOC policy and look to raise rates was basically approaching. The USD/CAD exchange rate fell from the 1.3500 area and now sits circa. 1.2700. That is an 8 cents drop. Unbelievable; and in normal circumstances I would have said equivalent to a about a 1% -1.5% interest rate change. The BOC raised by 0.25% and it could be a one and done event this year.\r\n\r\nFair play; one of the biggest issues and maybe reasoning behind this rate rise had to be the housing bubbles in Toronto and Vancouver.  8 cents move in the exchange rate is the equivalent to a tax on house purchases for overseas buyers, who are really to blame for the housing bubble, squeezing prices up. Their cost to fund CAD$ has increased by the 8-cent move.\r\n\r\nI expected on Thursday the day after the USD/CAD, GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD were slaughtered for a bounce back of sorts. Of sorts are the words to use. On Thursday feck all of a spike higher. The CAD languished around its lows. CAD strength is back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP (Employment Data, Export numbers and BREXIT):\r\n\r\nA much better week this week for the UK data releases.\r\n\r\nEmployment numbers were good and Export figures positive. Deputy governor Broadbent also went on the wires and said that now is NOT the time to be raising interest rates. No doubt this support got him a big kiss from Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are still on-going and leaks are almost nonexistent. Either the wine being drunk is so damn good those involved are incapable of speech to report on progress or they have done feck all but just look across the table at each other. Boris Johnson (UK Foreign Minister and BREXIT champion) did offer up a quote during the week, when in reference to the costs of the UK divorce from the EUROPEAN UNION, he said that the numbers quoted by the EU were extortion and that the EU could whistle for it to be paid!\r\n\r\nSo matters are progressing nicely</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (Janet Yellen Bi-Annual testimony, CPi and Retail Sales):\r\n\r\nWell she certainly surprised with her more DOVISH statement to the hill on the state of the FED and its Monetary Policy approach and progress towards its objectives. More about this later in the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nWith regards to the CPI and Retail Sales data, it was really poor and the USD was taken to the woodshed and smacked.\r\n\r\nThe future does not look good for USD bulls.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR (ECB):\r\n\r\nIt has been announced that Mario Draghi (ECB President) will attend this years FED symposium in Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nThis announcement has fueled speculation that he may use this event to warm the markets up to the future of the ECB bond buying program. ECB TAPERING is the hot topic at the moment, we had all the shenanigans at the ECB forum last month in Sintra, Portugal when Draghi’s hawkish comments were attempted to be walked back by “unnamed sources!” … my arse; that was the ECB who pooped their pants when they saw the EUR reaction to a tightening policy.\r\n\r\nI would say invest in “Depends**” because the entire staff at the ECB will be wearing them when the symposium takes place.\r\n\r\nI would have thought that the ECB would stay tight lipped and say nothing or do nothing until the year end. If Draghi puts one word out of place, never mind an entire sentence, the single currency will rip higher on the mere mention of tightening never mind a TAPERING exit program.\r\n\r\n<em>** For those of you who live outside of North America.\r\n\r\nHere is the google search for Depend (for men and women)\r\n\r\nTake Control of Leaks by Finding the Protection That\'s Right for You. Fast Absorption · All Around Leg Elastics · Odour Control · Great Protection · Increased Flexibility Types: Fit-Flex®, Real Fit® Briefs, Depend® Shield, Adjustable Underwear, Protection with Tabs</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9699\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017-1024x990.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"990\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>GBP: It is a big week data wise for the UK. We have CPi, Mark Carney’s testimony to the parliamentary committee on Inflation and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nI am still very cagey trading the cable at the moment. My bias was upside but the economic data of late has been poor switching my bias to sell. This week’s data will be confirmation of my switch in bias or just confusion.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR: Mario Draghi has his Press Conference this week, when all eyes and ears will be on “TAPERING” clues. Whatever happens, the single currency will have its usual wild roller-coaster ride up and down for a couple of hours. I just cannot see Draghi committing to anything or hinting at anything. It is the status quo for me, especially with the Jackson Hole symposium attendance being confirmed all attention will be focused there.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: Jobs data this week. Good numbers will confirm the AUD breakout and poor numbers will bring back the sceptics. It could be an either way report. Winter employment data releases are always a bit of a lottery as seasonal employment comes into play.\r\n\r\nWe also get at the beginning of the week the last set of minutes from the RBA. If you recall, the last statement from the RBA disappointed the market and sent the AUD/USD lower by 100+ pips because the RBA stayed neutral. This could be interesting to read.\r\n\r\nWill it affect the strengthening AUD that we have seen since Janet Yellen’s testimony earlier in the week?</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY: No doubt a yawn fest. I cannot see the BOJ saying or doing anything new except committing to the existing QE and QQE programs that are in place.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: CPi and Retail Sales data is released on Friday. More good numbers would in my opinion send the USD/CAD towards the next support area of 1.2300.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9700\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017-1024x856.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"856\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\nEUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9711\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9712\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9710\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9713\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9714\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9715\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9716\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,288 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,693 pips\r\n</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWe added 613 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE annual total last week. The tally is starting to gather momentum. I am very happy with this, it would have been a lot more but I had three or four poor loss making trades last week.\r\n\r\nI have spoken with a couple of you via SKYPE review meetings last week on the changing FUNDAMENTALS following Janet Yellen’s testimony in D.C. last week.\r\n\r\nLast week I talked about a TIPPING POINT.\r\n\r\nI see this change in direction of FED policy as a bit of a game changer. At least I think it’s a change. Wednesday, it was, Thursday she walked it back a bit. I am referring to moving away from normalization in favour of selling off “TAPERING” the FED balance sheet. This move has fueled the strengthening in particular, the commodity currencies.\r\n\r\nSo many pairs are now in breakout territory against key resistance levels or close to key support levels. I see this as a potential STRUCTURAL SHIFT (more later about these thoughts) … hence my hesitation after Yellen. I was waiting on a further walk back / clarification from the FED. All I saw was “Kaplan” stating that a gradual unwinding of the FED balance sheet should have a limited effect on the markets and that weak inflation is transitory… just the usual bollocks bullsh*t.\r\nThe poor CPi and Retail Sales data that was released on Friday pushed the limits on many pairs even more, so I decided to wait for the weekly closing candles to get a proper picture from which to move into this week with trade set ups.\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTALLY; I do see a sea change happening, the USD is on its way lower in my opinion, the question is of course for how long? That depends on the FED policy of course. If Yellen stops raising rates in favour of balance sheet tapering this does change my views moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nI stated last week that Janet Yellen’s Capitol Hill testimony would set the “Tone” for the markets moving forward. It has, but not in the way that I was expecting.\r\n\r\nWith a lot of poor U.S. data emerging and the TRUMP administration floundering going from one media disaster to the next, with gross inconsistencies and lies that are easy to prove being exposed, I can only think that the USD is in for a severe caning (see DXY chart below)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/DXY-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9701\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/DXY-16072017-1024x503.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"503\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom one of my last LIVE WEBINARS, in fact, I think that it was the final one before my summer break, I showed this WEEKLY USD$ (DXY) INDEX chart and said that if things got tough for the USD this potential bear flag could play out… well things are getting tough for the USD and the bear flag is in play with a measured move to 94.58. It could go further. At the moment, there is no love for the USD.\r\n\r\nTherefore, moving forward at least in the short to medium term I can see more USD weakness. My issue as always is, will this be across the board? That is the $64,000.00 question.\r\n\r\nI can see commodity currencies having a field day as well as the single currency which is the driver of the DXY. A lot depends on equities to gauge the JPY reaction, and, of course, BREXIT for the GBP.\r\n\r\nIt’s all change… bear with me for a couple of days.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CORE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>This may take a few days. At the moment, as you would have noticed late Friday I added a lot of trades around the AUD which is in breakout territory. If we see a move above 0.7850 stick this week, I will be adding aggressively. The RBA Meeting Minutes will be my first key, with the jobs data later in the week.\r\n\r\nIn addition to the AUD completing the week at highs, so did the GBP and the CAD. The GBP I am not convinced about but the CAD to me is on a death spiral. I looked at a longer-term chart the other day on possible measured moves of the USD/CAD and it was 1.1500... yikes.\r\n\r\nThere are plenty of opportunities we just need patience to get there.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9703\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-16072017-978x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"978\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9702\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-16072017-918x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"918\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> AN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT IS ON THE WAY </strong></p>\r\nLast week I wrote about how I believed were we were approaching a TIPPING POINT in the markets. Whilst I believe 100% in what I write, I did not think that one week later we would be at said TIPPING POINT, in fact, in my opinion, we are at what is a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nWhat do I mean?\r\n\r\nLet me start with some pre-amble, the much-awaited Janet Yellen bi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill, which must have left many people shaking their heads wondering WTF. I found her unconvincing and dare I suggest this but it’s not going to be her problem to fix as her tenure is up early next year and her replacement will be the seat on the hill in front of the politicians.\r\n\r\nI struggle with these U.S. committees, no one really asks questions and if they do they cut the answer short and most of the time we just get statements of position rather than questions. It’s all rather amateurish at times. Some of the committee members were more interested in scoring party points than actually being focused on the matter in hand. It does however, parade out in front of the world allegedly the best representatives of the people that the U.S. has… God help us all.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts / highlights / lowlights on the two-day testimony were: -\r\n\r\nINFLATION:\r\n\r\nWhat inflation?\r\n\r\nShe said that Inflation should rebound, but the FED could alter policy if inflation softness persists. Basically, she is stuck with the 2% goal that hasn’t been achieved for, I don’t know 5 years, 7 years?\r\n\r\nIf I had set targets like this back in the corporate world that I did not achieve never mind beat, I would be out on my arse looking for a new job!\r\n\r\nHer commentary was along the lines of FED POLICY should see the objective hit in the next few years. FED POLICY so far hasn’t done it, why on earth would anyone think that the FED has suddenly found the secret sauce?\r\n\r\n\r\nFED BALANCE SHEET, INTEREST RATES and MONETARY POLICY:\r\n\r\nThis is what caused all the twitchy bottoms.\r\n\r\nWith regards to monetary policy, she was DOVISH.  Although the Fed will begin TAPERING its balance sheet and although it will continue to gradually raise interest rates, interest rates will no longer be as high as before as seen in previous economic cycles and if inflation does NOT perk up the FED will slow down on raising rates.\r\n\r\nThe FED intends to raise rates as unemployment rates keep falling. Hmmn\r\nOn Day Two, Janet Yellen basically re-worked the same as day one although she did walk back comments made about whether she believed that there would ever be another great Financial crisis?\r\nDay one it was No.\r\n\r\nDay two we received this commentary. She talked about increased banking resilience and the fact so much has been done to strengthen banking capital and liquidity requirements should another crisis occur. She was happy to say that with Bank stress test results there was great improvement in risk management and capital planning.\r\n\r\nShe summed it up by saying that whilst the FED could never be confident that there will never be another financial crisis, there has been significant work and improvements made to best protect against an economic downturn.\r\n\r\nI keep saying that she unconvincing, you can add unimpressive if you want. She talks the talk but I think no-one really believe a word that comes out of the FED as much as they used to. Everything is transitory, data dependent then that no longer appears to matter.\r\n\r\nIN SUMMARY:\r\n\r\nSo; after all that, we received really poor CPi and Retail sales data on Friday last week and the USD received another whacking!\r\n\r\nFrom behind my desk it looks like it’s going to be a long hot summer for USD bulls. I just cannot see how it can come back quickly from: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>YELLEN’s change of focus, unimpressive, lack lustre performance on Capitol Hill. She has really said without saying it that rates are going nowhere in the near future. We may see the next hike in December 2017.</li>\r\n 	<li>A continuing bad run of weak / poor U.S. data after previously released poor data.</li>\r\n 	<li>The on-going political woes of the TRUMP administration. It just keeps scoring own goal after own goal. How did this guy ever run a business? It’s frankly shambolic.</li>\r\n 	<li>Normalization around the world by other G7 central banks. This will affect the USD as other currencies strengthen through their own Central Bank normalization policies.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nItems 1 and 4 above are strategic and structural. These are not whims!\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s Capitol Hill performance was in my opinion was possibly the final nail in the coffin that has instigated an FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT that could take place this summer when markets are slow and trading volumes are thin.\r\n\r\n\r\nTRADING MOVING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nFirstly, let’s not get carried away, even though it sounds like I have already.\r\n\r\nWe are trading in the summer. Ranges are always tested and it is a desperate time of the year for false breakouts and breakdowns. Having said that: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CAD, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY to name just a few currency pairs are in breakout / breakdown mode. Range extremes are being tested and should they be broken potentially big moves are afoot. Without doubt this move by the FED benefits the commodity currencies whether their central banks want it to or not.\r\n\r\nNOTE: The BOC has already led the way and in the past month the CAD$ has appreciated by over 8 cents. I am not sure that the RBA or the RBNZ would appreciate such a move. They may not have much of a say in what initially happens. Right now, the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in break out territory toying with really good and strong previous resistance levels.\r\n\r\nWith a move across most G7 central banks to normalize sooner rather later, the market is testing and pushing levels that during the slower thin markets could just give way and moves could be explosive. Perhaps, we will not see the usual false moves that we have seen in past summers.\r\n\r\nWe could see and I would NOT rule it out - a massive summer STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nShould one currency USD major breakout, it will affect its cross rates and then like a domino effect the market all pushes and pulls to re-align value.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion the big loser should this happen will be the USD.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #141 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nDATE: 16th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'AN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT  IS ON THE WAY', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9717-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-15 06:56:38', '2017-07-15 11:56:38', '', 9717, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9717-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(9726, 1, '2017-07-15 07:41:40', '2017-07-15 12:41:40', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWell that was an interesting week to say the least. On Wednesday night, I was convinced that the FED had decided upon a change of direction with its monetary policy and by midafternoon on Thursday I was less certain.\r\n\r\nI am now asking myself if these policy announcements followed by walk backs by Central bank leaders are coordinated or is it just pressure of the job or is it a bit of incompetence or both. Whatever way you want to describe it I would use the word unconvincing.\r\n\r\nAll we want as traders, especially with FX is clarity. We couldn’t give a rat’s hairy ass if its positive, negative, bullish, bearish, hawkish or dovish; we just want clarity.\r\n\r\nI am now 100% convinced that we do not get clarity because the Central Bank governors / presidents are as much in dark as most people as to what is actually happening in their own economies. Everything now is so inter-linked we live in different times than that of Trichet and Greenspan and the old-school approaches are no longer relevant.\r\n\r\nLast week I wrote about a TIPPING POINT. I think we are there a lot faster than I thought and it will be FX that starts it.\r\n\r\nMore is at play now that just gamekeepers turning poachers and doves becoming hawks. I see a possible major RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT taking place in the FX market. It has the added spice of possibly occurring during the summer when trading volumes are low and markets thin and illiquid.\r\n\r\nI also believe that the FED was the final nail in the coffin, the straw that broke the camel’s back to make this a real possibility.\r\n\r\nMore of this in the “SOAPBOX” later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>CAD (BOC):\r\n\r\nI have been critical of Stephen Poloz in the past through lack of decision, being far too “CONSERVATIVE” in approach, which is the Canadian way irrespective of political persuasion.\r\n\r\nAbout a month ago, Poloz’s Senior Deputy Governor, Carolyn Wilkins (In Canada, we love full employment so there’s probably a great hierarchy, family tree spreadsheet inside the BOC), announced that the time to tighten BOC policy and look to raise rates was basically approaching. The USD/CAD exchange rate fell from the 1.3500 area and now sits circa. 1.2700. That is an 8 cents drop. Unbelievable; and in normal circumstances I would have said equivalent to a about a 1% -1.5% interest rate change. The BOC raised by 0.25% and it could be a one and done event this year.\r\n\r\nFair play; one of the biggest issues and maybe reasoning behind this rate rise had to be the housing bubbles in Toronto and Vancouver.  8 cents move in the exchange rate is the equivalent to a tax on house purchases for overseas buyers, who are really to blame for the housing bubble, squeezing prices up. Their cost to fund CAD$ has increased by the 8-cent move.\r\n\r\nI expected on Thursday the day after the USD/CAD, GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD were slaughtered for a bounce back of sorts. Of sorts are the words to use. On Thursday feck all of a spike higher. The CAD languished around its lows. CAD strength is back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP (Employment Data, Export numbers and BREXIT):\r\n\r\nA much better week this week for the UK data releases.\r\n\r\nEmployment numbers were good and Export figures positive. Deputy governor Broadbent also went on the wires and said that now is NOT the time to be raising interest rates. No doubt this support got him a big kiss from Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are still on-going and leaks are almost nonexistent. Either the wine being drunk is so damn good those involved are incapable of speech to report on progress or they have done feck all but just look across the table at each other. Boris Johnson (UK Foreign Minister and BREXIT champion) did offer up a quote during the week, when in reference to the costs of the UK divorce from the EUROPEAN UNION, he said that the numbers quoted by the EU were extortion and that the EU could whistle for it to be paid!\r\n\r\nSo matters are progressing nicely.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (Janet Yellen Bi-Annual testimony, CPi and Retail Sales):\r\n\r\nWell she certainly surprised with her more DOVISH statement to the hill on the state of the FED and its Monetary Policy approach and progress towards its objectives. More about this later in the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nWith regards to the CPI and Retail Sales data, it was really poor and the USD was taken to the woodshed and smacked.\r\n\r\nThe future does not look good for USD bulls.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR (ECB):\r\n\r\nIt has been announced that Mario Draghi (ECB President) will attend this years FED symposium in Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nThis announcement has fueled speculation that he may use this event to warm the markets up to the future of the ECB bond buying program. ECB TAPERING is the hot topic at the moment, we had all the shenanigans at the ECB forum last month in Sintra, Portugal when Draghi’s hawkish comments were attempted to be walked back by “unnamed sources!” … my arse; that was the ECB who pooped their pants when they saw the EUR reaction to a tightening policy.\r\n\r\nI would say invest in “Depends**” because the entire staff at the ECB will be wearing them when the symposium takes place.\r\n\r\nI would have thought that the ECB would stay tight lipped and say nothing or do nothing until the year end. If Draghi puts one word out of place, never mind an entire sentence, the single currency will rip higher on the mere mention of tightening never mind a TAPERING exit program.\r\n\r\n<em>** For those of you who live outside of North America.\r\n\r\nHere is the google search for Depend (for men and women)\r\n\r\nTake Control of Leaks by Finding the Protection That\'s Right for You. Fast Absorption · All Around Leg Elastics · Odour Control · Great Protection · Increased Flexibility Types: Fit-Flex®, Real Fit® Briefs, Depend® Shield, Adjustable Underwear, Protection with Tabs</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9699\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017-1024x990.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"990\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>GBP: It is a big week data wise for the UK. We have CPi, Mark Carney’s testimony to the parliamentary committee on Inflation and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nI am still very cagey trading the cable at the moment. My bias was upside but the economic data of late has been poor switching my bias to sell. This week’s data will be confirmation of my switch in bias or just confusion.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR: Mario Draghi has his Press Conference this week, when all eyes and ears will be on “TAPERING” clues. Whatever happens, the single currency will have its usual wild roller-coaster ride up and down for a couple of hours. I just cannot see Draghi committing to anything or hinting at anything. It is the status quo for me, especially with the Jackson Hole symposium attendance being confirmed all attention will be focused there.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: Jobs data this week. Good numbers will confirm the AUD breakout and poor numbers will bring back the sceptics. It could be an either way report. Winter employment data releases are always a bit of a lottery as seasonal employment comes into play.\r\n\r\nWe also get at the beginning of the week the last set of minutes from the RBA. If you recall, the last statement from the RBA disappointed the market and sent the AUD/USD lower by 100+ pips because the RBA stayed neutral. This could be interesting to read.\r\n\r\nWill it affect the strengthening AUD that we have seen since Janet Yellen’s testimony earlier in the week?</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY: No doubt a yawn fest. I cannot see the BOJ saying or doing anything new except committing to the existing QE and QQE programs that are in place.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: CPi and Retail Sales data is released on Friday. More good numbers would in my opinion send the USD/CAD towards the next support area of 1.2300.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9700\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017-1024x856.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"856\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\nEUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9711\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9712\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9710\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9713\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9714\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9715\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9716\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Further information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,288 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,693 pips</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ol style=\"text-align: center;\" start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\nAN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT IS ON THE WAY </strong></p>\r\nLast week I wrote about how I believed were we were approaching a TIPPING POINT in the markets. Whilst I believe 100% in what I write, I did not think that one week later we would be at said TIPPING POINT, in fact, in my opinion, we are at what is a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nWhat do I mean?\r\n\r\nLet me start with some pre-amble, the much-awaited Janet Yellen bi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill, which must have left many people shaking their heads wondering WTF. I found her unconvincing and dare I suggest this but it’s not going to be her problem to fix as her tenure is up early next year and her replacement will be the seat on the hill in front of the politicians.\r\n\r\nI struggle with these U.S. committees, no one really asks questions and if they do they cut the answer short and most of the time we just get statements of position rather than questions. It’s all rather amateurish at times. Some of the committee members were more interested in scoring party points than actually being focused on the matter in hand. It does however, parade out in front of the world allegedly the best representatives of the people that the U.S. has… God help us all.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts / highlights / lowlights on the two-day testimony were: -\r\n\r\nINFLATION:\r\n\r\nWhat inflation?\r\n\r\nShe said that Inflation should rebound, but the FED could alter policy if inflation softness persists. Basically, she is stuck with the 2% goal that hasn’t been achieved for, I don’t know 5 years, 7 years?\r\n\r\nIf I had set targets like this back in the corporate world that I did not achieve never mind beat, I would be out on my arse looking for a new job!\r\n\r\nHer commentary was along the lines of FED POLICY should see the objective hit in the next few years. FED POLICY so far hasn’t done it, why on earth would anyone think that the FED has suddenly found the secret sauce?\r\n\r\n\r\nFED BALANCE SHEET, INTEREST RATES and MONETARY POLICY:\r\n\r\nThis is what caused all the twitchy bottoms.\r\n\r\nWith regards to monetary policy, she was DOVISH.  Although the Fed will begin TAPERING its balance sheet and although it will continue to gradually raise interest rates, interest rates will no longer be as high as before as seen in previous economic cycles and if inflation does NOT perk up the FED will slow down on raising rates.\r\n\r\nThe FED intends to raise rates as unemployment rates keep falling. Hmmn\r\nOn Day Two, Janet Yellen basically re-worked the same as day one although she did walk back comments made about whether she believed that there would ever be another great Financial crisis?\r\nDay one it was No.\r\n\r\nDay two we received this commentary. She talked about increased banking resilience and the fact so much has been done to strengthen banking capital and liquidity requirements should another crisis occur. She was happy to say that with Bank stress test results there was great improvement in risk management and capital planning.\r\n\r\nShe summed it up by saying that whilst the FED could never be confident that there will never be another financial crisis, there has been significant work and improvements made to best protect against an economic downturn.\r\n\r\nI keep saying that she unconvincing, you can add unimpressive if you want. She talks the talk but I think no-one really believe a word that comes out of the FED as much as they used to. Everything is transitory, data dependent then that no longer appears to matter.\r\n\r\nIN SUMMARY:\r\n\r\nSo; after all that, we received really poor CPi and Retail sales data on Friday last week and the USD received another whacking!\r\n\r\nFrom behind my desk it looks like it’s going to be a long hot summer for USD bulls. I just cannot see how it can come back quickly from: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>YELLEN’s change of focus, unimpressive, lack lustre performance on Capitol Hill. She has really said without saying it that rates are going nowhere in the near future. We may see the next hike in December 2017.</li>\r\n 	<li>A continuing bad run of weak / poor U.S. data after previously released poor data.</li>\r\n 	<li>The on-going political woes of the TRUMP administration. It just keeps scoring own goal after own goal. How did this guy ever run a business? It’s frankly shambolic.</li>\r\n 	<li>Normalization around the world by other G7 central banks. This will affect the USD as other currencies strengthen through their own Central Bank normalization policies.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nItems 1 and 4 above are strategic and structural. These are not whims!\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s Capitol Hill performance was in my opinion was possibly the final nail in the coffin that has instigated an FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT that could take place this summer when markets are slow and trading volumes are thin.\r\n\r\n\r\nTRADING MOVING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nFirstly, let’s not get carried away, even though it sounds like I have already.\r\n\r\nWe are trading in the summer. Ranges are always tested and it is a desperate time of the year for false breakouts and breakdowns. Having said that: - AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CAD, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY to name just a few currency pairs are in breakout / breakdown mode. Range extremes are being tested and should they be broken potentially big moves are afoot. Without doubt this move by the FED benefits the commodity currencies whether their central banks want it to or not.\r\n\r\nNOTE: The BOC has already led the way and in the past month the CAD$ has appreciated by over 8 cents. I am not sure that the RBA or the RBNZ would appreciate such a move. They may not have much of a say in what initially happens. Right now, the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in break out territory toying with really good and strong previous resistance levels.\r\n\r\nWith a move across most G7 central banks to normalize sooner rather later, the market is testing and pushing levels that during the slower thin markets could just give way and moves could be explosive. Perhaps, we will not see the usual false moves that we have seen in past summers.\r\n\r\nWe could see and I would NOT rule it out - a massive summer STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nShould one currency USD major breakout, it will affect its cross rates and then like a domino effect the market all pushes and pulls to re-align value.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion the big loser should this happen will be the USD.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #244 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 16th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'AN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT  IS ON THE WAY', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'fx-structural-re-alignment-way', '', '', '2017-07-15 07:41:40', '2017-07-15 12:41:40', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=9726', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(9727, 1, '2017-07-15 07:41:40', '2017-07-15 12:41:40', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWell that was an interesting week to say the least. On Wednesday night, I was convinced that the FED had decided upon a change of direction with its monetary policy and by midafternoon on Thursday I was less certain.\r\n\r\nI am now asking myself if these policy announcements followed by walk backs by Central bank leaders are coordinated or is it just pressure of the job or is it a bit of incompetence or both. Whatever way you want to describe it I would use the word unconvincing.\r\n\r\nAll we want as traders, especially with FX is clarity. We couldn’t give a rat’s hairy ass if its positive, negative, bullish, bearish, hawkish or dovish; we just want clarity.\r\n\r\nI am now 100% convinced that we do not get clarity because the Central Bank governors / presidents are as much in dark as most people as to what is actually happening in their own economies. Everything now is so inter-linked we live in different times than that of Trichet and Greenspan and the old-school approaches are no longer relevant.\r\n\r\nLast week I wrote about a TIPPING POINT. I think we are there a lot faster than I thought and it will be FX that starts it.\r\n\r\nMore is at play now that just gamekeepers turning poachers and doves becoming hawks. I see a possible major RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT taking place in the FX market. It has the added spice of possibly occurring during the summer when trading volumes are low and markets thin and illiquid.\r\n\r\nI also believe that the FED was the final nail in the coffin, the straw that broke the camel’s back to make this a real possibility.\r\n\r\nMore of this in the “SOAPBOX” later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>CAD (BOC):\r\n\r\nI have been critical of Stephen Poloz in the past through lack of decision, being far too “CONSERVATIVE” in approach, which is the Canadian way irrespective of political persuasion.\r\n\r\nAbout a month ago, Poloz’s Senior Deputy Governor, Carolyn Wilkins (In Canada, we love full employment so there’s probably a great hierarchy, family tree spreadsheet inside the BOC), announced that the time to tighten BOC policy and look to raise rates was basically approaching. The USD/CAD exchange rate fell from the 1.3500 area and now sits circa. 1.2700. That is an 8 cents drop. Unbelievable; and in normal circumstances I would have said equivalent to a about a 1% -1.5% interest rate change. The BOC raised by 0.25% and it could be a one and done event this year.\r\n\r\nFair play; one of the biggest issues and maybe reasoning behind this rate rise had to be the housing bubbles in Toronto and Vancouver.  8 cents move in the exchange rate is the equivalent to a tax on house purchases for overseas buyers, who are really to blame for the housing bubble, squeezing prices up. Their cost to fund CAD$ has increased by the 8-cent move.\r\n\r\nI expected on Thursday the day after the USD/CAD, GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD were slaughtered for a bounce back of sorts. Of sorts are the words to use. On Thursday feck all of a spike higher. The CAD languished around its lows. CAD strength is back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP (Employment Data, Export numbers and BREXIT):\r\n\r\nA much better week this week for the UK data releases.\r\n\r\nEmployment numbers were good and Export figures positive. Deputy governor Broadbent also went on the wires and said that now is NOT the time to be raising interest rates. No doubt this support got him a big kiss from Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are still on-going and leaks are almost nonexistent. Either the wine being drunk is so damn good those involved are incapable of speech to report on progress or they have done feck all but just look across the table at each other. Boris Johnson (UK Foreign Minister and BREXIT champion) did offer up a quote during the week, when in reference to the costs of the UK divorce from the EUROPEAN UNION, he said that the numbers quoted by the EU were extortion and that the EU could whistle for it to be paid!\r\n\r\nSo matters are progressing nicely.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (Janet Yellen Bi-Annual testimony, CPi and Retail Sales):\r\n\r\nWell she certainly surprised with her more DOVISH statement to the hill on the state of the FED and its Monetary Policy approach and progress towards its objectives. More about this later in the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nWith regards to the CPI and Retail Sales data, it was really poor and the USD was taken to the woodshed and smacked.\r\n\r\nThe future does not look good for USD bulls.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR (ECB):\r\n\r\nIt has been announced that Mario Draghi (ECB President) will attend this years FED symposium in Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nThis announcement has fueled speculation that he may use this event to warm the markets up to the future of the ECB bond buying program. ECB TAPERING is the hot topic at the moment, we had all the shenanigans at the ECB forum last month in Sintra, Portugal when Draghi’s hawkish comments were attempted to be walked back by “unnamed sources!” … my arse; that was the ECB who pooped their pants when they saw the EUR reaction to a tightening policy.\r\n\r\nI would say invest in “Depends**” because the entire staff at the ECB will be wearing them when the symposium takes place.\r\n\r\nI would have thought that the ECB would stay tight lipped and say nothing or do nothing until the year end. If Draghi puts one word out of place, never mind an entire sentence, the single currency will rip higher on the mere mention of tightening never mind a TAPERING exit program.\r\n\r\n<em>** For those of you who live outside of North America.\r\n\r\nHere is the google search for Depend (for men and women)\r\n\r\nTake Control of Leaks by Finding the Protection That\'s Right for You. Fast Absorption · All Around Leg Elastics · Odour Control · Great Protection · Increased Flexibility Types: Fit-Flex®, Real Fit® Briefs, Depend® Shield, Adjustable Underwear, Protection with Tabs</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9699\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017-1024x990.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"990\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>GBP: It is a big week data wise for the UK. We have CPi, Mark Carney’s testimony to the parliamentary committee on Inflation and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nI am still very cagey trading the cable at the moment. My bias was upside but the economic data of late has been poor switching my bias to sell. This week’s data will be confirmation of my switch in bias or just confusion.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR: Mario Draghi has his Press Conference this week, when all eyes and ears will be on “TAPERING” clues. Whatever happens, the single currency will have its usual wild roller-coaster ride up and down for a couple of hours. I just cannot see Draghi committing to anything or hinting at anything. It is the status quo for me, especially with the Jackson Hole symposium attendance being confirmed all attention will be focused there.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: Jobs data this week. Good numbers will confirm the AUD breakout and poor numbers will bring back the sceptics. It could be an either way report. Winter employment data releases are always a bit of a lottery as seasonal employment comes into play.\r\n\r\nWe also get at the beginning of the week the last set of minutes from the RBA. If you recall, the last statement from the RBA disappointed the market and sent the AUD/USD lower by 100+ pips because the RBA stayed neutral. This could be interesting to read.\r\n\r\nWill it affect the strengthening AUD that we have seen since Janet Yellen’s testimony earlier in the week?</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY: No doubt a yawn fest. I cannot see the BOJ saying or doing anything new except committing to the existing QE and QQE programs that are in place.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: CPi and Retail Sales data is released on Friday. More good numbers would in my opinion send the USD/CAD towards the next support area of 1.2300.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9700\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017-1024x856.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"856\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\nEUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9711\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9712\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9710\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9713\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9714\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9715\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9716\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Further information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,288 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,693 pips</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ol style=\"text-align: center;\" start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\nAN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT IS ON THE WAY </strong></p>\r\nLast week I wrote about how I believed were we were approaching a TIPPING POINT in the markets. Whilst I believe 100% in what I write, I did not think that one week later we would be at said TIPPING POINT, in fact, in my opinion, we are at what is a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nWhat do I mean?\r\n\r\nLet me start with some pre-amble, the much-awaited Janet Yellen bi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill, which must have left many people shaking their heads wondering WTF. I found her unconvincing and dare I suggest this but it’s not going to be her problem to fix as her tenure is up early next year and her replacement will be the seat on the hill in front of the politicians.\r\n\r\nI struggle with these U.S. committees, no one really asks questions and if they do they cut the answer short and most of the time we just get statements of position rather than questions. It’s all rather amateurish at times. Some of the committee members were more interested in scoring party points than actually being focused on the matter in hand. It does however, parade out in front of the world allegedly the best representatives of the people that the U.S. has… God help us all.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts / highlights / lowlights on the two-day testimony were: -\r\n\r\nINFLATION:\r\n\r\nWhat inflation?\r\n\r\nShe said that Inflation should rebound, but the FED could alter policy if inflation softness persists. Basically, she is stuck with the 2% goal that hasn’t been achieved for, I don’t know 5 years, 7 years?\r\n\r\nIf I had set targets like this back in the corporate world that I did not achieve never mind beat, I would be out on my arse looking for a new job!\r\n\r\nHer commentary was along the lines of FED POLICY should see the objective hit in the next few years. FED POLICY so far hasn’t done it, why on earth would anyone think that the FED has suddenly found the secret sauce?\r\n\r\n\r\nFED BALANCE SHEET, INTEREST RATES and MONETARY POLICY:\r\n\r\nThis is what caused all the twitchy bottoms.\r\n\r\nWith regards to monetary policy, she was DOVISH.  Although the Fed will begin TAPERING its balance sheet and although it will continue to gradually raise interest rates, interest rates will no longer be as high as before as seen in previous economic cycles and if inflation does NOT perk up the FED will slow down on raising rates.\r\n\r\nThe FED intends to raise rates as unemployment rates keep falling. Hmmn\r\nOn Day Two, Janet Yellen basically re-worked the same as day one although she did walk back comments made about whether she believed that there would ever be another great Financial crisis?\r\nDay one it was No.\r\n\r\nDay two we received this commentary. She talked about increased banking resilience and the fact so much has been done to strengthen banking capital and liquidity requirements should another crisis occur. She was happy to say that with Bank stress test results there was great improvement in risk management and capital planning.\r\n\r\nShe summed it up by saying that whilst the FED could never be confident that there will never be another financial crisis, there has been significant work and improvements made to best protect against an economic downturn.\r\n\r\nI keep saying that she unconvincing, you can add unimpressive if you want. She talks the talk but I think no-one really believe a word that comes out of the FED as much as they used to. Everything is transitory, data dependent then that no longer appears to matter.\r\n\r\nIN SUMMARY:\r\n\r\nSo; after all that, we received really poor CPi and Retail sales data on Friday last week and the USD received another whacking!\r\n\r\nFrom behind my desk it looks like it’s going to be a long hot summer for USD bulls. I just cannot see how it can come back quickly from: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>YELLEN’s change of focus, unimpressive, lack lustre performance on Capitol Hill. She has really said without saying it that rates are going nowhere in the near future. We may see the next hike in December 2017.</li>\r\n 	<li>A continuing bad run of weak / poor U.S. data after previously released poor data.</li>\r\n 	<li>The on-going political woes of the TRUMP administration. It just keeps scoring own goal after own goal. How did this guy ever run a business? It’s frankly shambolic.</li>\r\n 	<li>Normalization around the world by other G7 central banks. This will affect the USD as other currencies strengthen through their own Central Bank normalization policies.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nItems 1 and 4 above are strategic and structural. These are not whims!\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s Capitol Hill performance was in my opinion was possibly the final nail in the coffin that has instigated an FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT that could take place this summer when markets are slow and trading volumes are thin.\r\n\r\n\r\nTRADING MOVING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nFirstly, let’s not get carried away, even though it sounds like I have already.\r\n\r\nWe are trading in the summer. Ranges are always tested and it is a desperate time of the year for false breakouts and breakdowns. Having said that: - AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CAD, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY to name just a few currency pairs are in breakout / breakdown mode. Range extremes are being tested and should they be broken potentially big moves are afoot. Without doubt this move by the FED benefits the commodity currencies whether their central banks want it to or not.\r\n\r\nNOTE: The BOC has already led the way and in the past month the CAD$ has appreciated by over 8 cents. I am not sure that the RBA or the RBNZ would appreciate such a move. They may not have much of a say in what initially happens. Right now, the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in break out territory toying with really good and strong previous resistance levels.\r\n\r\nWith a move across most G7 central banks to normalize sooner rather later, the market is testing and pushing levels that during the slower thin markets could just give way and moves could be explosive. Perhaps, we will not see the usual false moves that we have seen in past summers.\r\n\r\nWe could see and I would NOT rule it out - a massive summer STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nShould one currency USD major breakout, it will affect its cross rates and then like a domino effect the market all pushes and pulls to re-align value.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion the big loser should this happen will be the USD.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #244 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 16th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'AN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT  IS ON THE WAY', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9726-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-15 07:41:40', '2017-07-15 12:41:40', '', 9726, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9726-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(9756, 1, '2017-07-22 07:00:09', '2017-07-22 12:00:09', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI must admit that although we are in the summer, the summer doldrums trading experiences that we have seen in past years have not arrived yet. We may have thinner trading conditions and much less than usual liquidity in the market, but the moves are very much still out there.\r\n\r\nThe moves are not all Central Bank initiated, but one could say that the BOC and RBA have had great influences of late in moves surrounding the CAD and AUD. The GBP has BREXIT uncertainties, Theresa May’s tenuous grip on power and we have the BOE “flip-flopping”. The EUR has spiked higher on the news denied twice by the ECB and Draghi that the end of policy accommodation is in sight and that tapering will start and they normalize interest rates.\r\n\r\nSo all in all there is more than enough to feed a hungry market.\r\n\r\nThe winner (if there needs to be one) in all of this is the USD. Basically, it has weakened since “THE DONALD” was sworn in (see USD INDEX (DXY) below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9733\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017-1024x508.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"508\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWhen I talk about winners, I am really referring to exporters and keeping the wheels of industry greased and moving increasing the export nations competitive. From this perspective, the U.S. is winning and the EUROZONE is losing.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past three weeks I have written in the SOAPBOX section of this blog about: -\r\n\r\n1. July 15th: FX MARKET RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\n2. July 6th: THE TIPPING POINT.\r\n\r\n3. July 1st: (Regarding Central Banks) GAME KEEPERS are NOW POACHERS.\r\n\r\nAll three of these articles from this blog are current factors in the market today. I am not looking for a pat on the back but this information is FREE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe reason that I bring this up is because of something that occurred during the week. Like many of you, I subscribe to various market opinion sites for raw data, especially the various international banks around the globe. I use most of this data, especially the bank data to give me contrarian ideas moving forward which I pass on to my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nHowever, a trial period with an independent global research provider had come to an end. The continuation fees were about CAD$14,500.00 per annum. The information provided was not even FX specific, it was mostly opinion based upon fundamentals and I could not by any stretch of the imagination justify such costs for my business. As I explained to my contact, my Fundamentals emanate primarily from Central bank documentation because it is Central Bank Monetary Policy that fundamentally drives the FX market. The days of Greenspan and Trichet are long gone when an interpreter was required to dig deep to find out what they were saying. Nowadays transparency is the buzz word and the documentation available is clearly set out for all.\r\n\r\nMy fundamental interpretation plus technical set ups to provide trade set ups that can generate $$$ are provided for just CAD$1,250.00 per annum by comparison to the non-accountable fundamental data at CAD$14,500.00 a year that does not give entry or exit levels or follow ups on previous opinions.\r\n\r\nSubscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE receive detailed actual information that can generate $$$.\r\n\r\nPerhaps I am in the wrong business!!\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD: (REPUBLICAN HEALTHCARE PLAN… another rejection)\r\nNZD: (CPi)\r\nAUD: (RBA)\r\nThis all happened in the space of a couple of hours or so.\r\n\r\nLast Monday in between the NZD CPi and the RBA minutes from the last meeting being released the failure to proceed in the current draft was announced and the markets went crazy.\r\n\r\nPersonally; I was out at the time operating with only an iPAD. It was hard to gather data and trade effectively, so I took the cautious route and systematically closed every open trade. In the process, I think I banked about 150 pips but had I been in front of my screens with total access I would have seen more and read some back up and may not have carried out the “LOCK DOWN” move as I could have seen moves across 6 screens, compared to one device. Whilst I banked pips, I think there were about 1,000 additional pips thrown away as the reversal moves were powerful.\r\n\r\nQuite a few European PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were asleep through it all and woke up to some pleasant surprises the next day.\r\n\r\nPrior to the US news the NZD CPi data surprised most analysts by failing to meet expectations. The NZD pulled back and took the AUD with it. Around the same time as the Health Care news hit the wires the RBA minutes were released and they were more hawkish than the original interest rate statement from a couple of weeks ago.\r\n\r\nThat was double boost to the AUD which was already strengthening on the U.S. news, it took the NZD with it and all the cross rates.\r\n\r\nIt was around the RBA data that I was checking in on my iPAD. The rest is history as they say…. argh!!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>ECB: (Interest Rate Statement and Press Conference)\r\n\r\nWhat can I say that hasn’t already been said?\r\n\r\nGod love him (Mario Draghi).\r\n\r\nHe tried his best to be DOVISH every step of the way but the markets just did NOT believe a word of it and looking at Draghi when he was talking he looked like he did NOT believe the crap he was spouting.\r\n\r\nEvery man, woman and child, even my dogs Ozzy and Aoife know that the ECB will be tapering sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nDraghi did his best, spouting words and phrases such as: - 2018, December 2017, next year, extended period of time, not in the foreseeable future etc. etc…\r\n\r\nThe result was the EUR/USD climbed from 1.1480 to 1.1656. Feck knows what would have happened had he been HAWKISH!\r\n\r\nSo; it’s just when and not if. All eyes are now fixed on the Jackson Hole Symposium next month. EUR/USD at 1.2000 is NOT out of the realms of possibilities now. December 2016, it was at 1.0350.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: (CPi and Retail Sales)\r\n\r\nBREXIT scares the crap out of me and I believe that the market is just 110% complacent. The UK economy is starting to feel the pressure. Inflation and the relationship between inflation and wages is biting.\r\n\r\nCPi missed and Retail Sales beat. Big fecking deal on the Retail Sales; this in my opinion is mainly tourist driven based upon the UK being a cheap place to visit and one gets mucho £££ now in exchange for whatever.\r\n\r\nCable is under pressure as the news emanating from the BREXIT talks is hardly setting the world on fire and with the UK economic data mainly being poor, I think we are heading much lower again.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: (Employment Data)\r\n\r\nFantastic data a huge beat in the jobs numbers. The AUD initially spiked and then fell back overnight (for me) into the ECB press conference. It then rallied on broad continuing USD weakness and rather bizarrely the NZD/USD which had not really matched the upward move of the AUD/USD in recent days took the lead after the ECB, leaving the AUD/USD behind a little.\r\n\r\nWe should keep an eye on these moves moving forward. The charts all look bullish but the moves are not consistent.</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY: (BOJ Rate Statement)\r\n\r\nStop the presses.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ announced that it has extended its target deadline date to 2019 to reach its 2% inflation target.\r\n\r\nI want to comment without swearing…. feck that; Kuroda needs to get his arse in gear and start looking for a new job. I think that I will be six feet under pushing up daises before Japan has 2% inflation. There is more chance of hell freezing over.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9731\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-23072017-1024x958.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"958\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The big news this week surrounds the USD. This mean more nails in the coffin and could send the DXY towards 90.00.\r\n\r\nConsumer Confidence, an FOMC Rate Statement and Advance GDP are all key events. Plus, not on my chart are Durable Goods plus the usual weekly job numbers and OIL inventory data.\r\n\r\nIt should be an interesting week.\r\n\r\nWill Janet Yellen save or let the USD die? That is the question.\r\n\r\nThe cynic in me says if she wants another turn as FED chair she will kill the USD and please TRUMP. Did someone once state that the FED was independent?</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: GDP and the Inflation report hearings. These news events both could move the cable exchange rate substantially. Recent economic data (apart from last week’s Retail Sales) has been poor so further bad figures will increase the downside pressure on the cable.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9732\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-23072017-1024x847.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"847\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9744\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9745\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9743\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9746\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9747\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9748\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9749\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move, in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,598 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,003 net pips\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week the PREMIUM SERVICE added +310 net pips.\r\n\r\nJust before the ECB Press Conference last week, I decided apart from the AUD/NZD to go flat with my open trades.\r\n\r\nAs I have talked about recently we are RE-ALIGNING in the currency market. Upon first glance, it looks pretty clear. The USD is getting taken to the woodshed and getting a bloody good spanking. However, I think we should consider a couple of other things as well, namely the S&amp;P and the JPY.\r\nIt is very easy to trade outside of these factors in normal circumstances but I think we should be careful around not just the USD majors because of “THE DONALD” and “FED” uncertainties at the moment, but the cross-rates can also spark a move on a whim (ECB day last week EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD about face).\r\n\r\nTherefore, dare I say it but we need to exercise patience and be picky. I will be picky with the PREMIUM SERVICE trades so please allow for this, I would rather take 50 pips or so per day out of two or three smaller trades than aim for the 70-100 pip moves. Great if we can get them but I will now be aiming a little lower, until I have greater confidence.\r\n\r\nThe STRUCTURAL SHIFT is happening and the potential moves are huge. There are couple of no brainer trades in my opinion. Get in on small pullbacks and place stops wide, almost close your eyes and open them in 3 or 4 weeks’ time to bank the $$$, such as AUD/USD, AUD/NZD and EUR/USD long. Plus FUNDAMENTALLY I want to be short GBP/USD and possibly short GBP/CAD and USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nThese trades will be my initial focus.\r\n\r\nApart from the pairs noted above I will be as selective as possible based around my core trades. I hope that this makes sense. By the middle of this week I hope to fully loaded once again.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n</u>This is a new addition to this section. The SHORT or LONG indicators in the excel sheet are based on buying and selling pressure algorithms averaged for the time periods. I use these from time to time for confirmation of a trade. In addition, when I see the Short, Medium and Long term periods in alignment this gives me more confidence vis-à-vis a trades direction and who is in control of the currency pair, the bears or the bulls.\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n</u><u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/MKT-SENT-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9736\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/MKT-SENT-23072017-691x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"691\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u>Apart from a failing eye-sight glitch on setting a stop on the AUD/NZD at the correct level…argh!!, core trades are now being set up.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: (Not yet triggered)\r\n\r\nThis pair is the most interesting of all from my “no-brainers” noted above. The market expects 1.1711 to be tagged and then a corrective retrace to about 1.1200 or so. In normal market circumstances, I would agree to these thoughts without much debate. However, this current market is “squeezy”, non-believing of Mario Draghi and algorithm riddled with specific targets locked in.\r\n\r\nOn Friday, last week one day after Draghi’s ECB Press conference an ECB spokesperson stated that in October this year its Asset Purchasing Programme “Tapering” will be discussed. FFS - Draghi must have known this 24 hours earlier!\r\n\r\nAt the moment, maybe at 1.1700 we may get a small pullback to say a 38% Fibonacci to 1.1615 and then move back with the trend. My trade POS374 has an entry at 1.1590. I may need to tinker with this if I do not get the full pullback I want.\r\n\r\nI would NOT rule anything out. Given all the “TAPER FRENZY” and the markets desire for a huge EUR/USD corrective move, we need to be over this trade like a rash.\r\n\r\nNeedless to say, the EUR cross-rates will be drivers as well.\r\n\r\n\r\nAUD/USD: (Live)\r\n\r\nThis pair has broken out. 0.8000 is the immediate objective and I believe that 0.8400 is possible.\r\n\r\nA word of caution, the Deputy RBA Governor Guy Debelle, was speaking on Friday last week basically stating that there will be no rush to raise rates just because other Central Banks are doing so. The AUD pulled back 50-60 pips on this news and gave me the “BUYING THE DIP” opportunity as 3 trades triggered…happy days.\r\n\r\nTechnically, the AUD has already broken out and the RBA is trying to close the stable door after the horse has already bolted.\r\n\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nPrior to the “Debelle” comments this pair looked very constructive to the long side. It was whacked lower on the comments. Longer-term fair value for this pair is much higher.\r\n\r\nI must point out at this stage. The weekly closing candle looks bloody awful. If the start of the week does not see this pair move upwards in line with the AUD I may consider removing trades to re-enter again at lower levels. The candle looks poor. But fundamentally I am good. With this conflict, I need to see the start of the week and possibly make a decision by the close of the day on Monday.\r\n\r\nI have been in and out of the pair on the long side for about 3 years now and I have provided numerous head and shoulders patterns, bull flag measured moves, descending wedge breakouts… the lot. Basically, it is a slow mover but hopefully before I die it will back into the 1.20’s again!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD: (Live)\r\n\r\nThe more I read and see on TV regarding the UK government the more it looks like a shambolic collection of misfits that lack leadership, unity and God forbid direction on practically every subject. In certain aspects, it makes TRUMP look positively on the ball (I cannot believe I wrote that).\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT negotiations look amateurish and not thought out. The risk of a “No Deal” as highlighted last week by one of the UK negotiator’s Nick Fox happening is real. I cannot see how this benefits the UK. In fact, this does NOT benefit the EU either.\r\n\r\nI have documented this in the past but my reasons for being contrarian with this pair compared to most market analysts and commentators is because of: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT UNCERTAINTY.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAPITAL OUTFLOWS and FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS are now on the move out of the city. This will add more pressure.</li>\r\n 	<li>THERESA MAY’S tenuous position as leader and Prime Minister.</li>\r\n 	<li>KEY ECONOMIC DATA now turning sour.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOE committed to dovish approach for at least 2017.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis could be a challenging trade initially, I believe that 1.2775 is the pivot to pass to give me greater confidence. In the interim, the USD (TRUMP ISSUES) will from time to time effect the cable moves.\r\n\r\nI am using recent highs of just above 1.3100 as my line in the sand to exit if required. Therefore, from a RISK / REWARD perspective this trade position does appeal.<u>\r\n\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9735\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-23072017-934x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"934\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9734\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-23072017-841x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"841\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nCENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE IS BACK\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nThis week I am not writing about the end of the world or anything like that, after two weeks of writing about TIPPING POINTS and STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, to write about DIVERGENCE sounds rather boring by comparison.\r\n\r\nFor about 18 months and to me it does seem a hell of a lot longer, I have been banging on about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE and the possible trades that run alongside it.\r\n\r\nEarlier this year I thought that we had it, but “THE DONALD’S” ineffective management of the U.S. kicked that into touch no matter how aggressive the FED was in the early part of 2017. The USD (DXY) chart from the beginning of the blog is repeated below. It shows that even in a raising of rates scenario a currency can still NOT strengthen. <strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9733\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017-1024x508.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"508\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</strong>If you recall at the start of 2017 the FED stood in isolation of the G10 Central Banks. It started a policy of normalization with its interest rate policy. It did this whilst the other central banks inside the G10 stood still being dovish or at best neutral.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>Three weeks ago, on the 1st of July, I wrote a piece for this section called “THE GAMEKEEPERS are now THE POACHERS”. This was based upon the fact that the previous Central Banks that had remained dovish or neutral were starting to change their policy stance.\r\n\r\nAt an ECB Monetary Policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, ECB Mario Draghi, BOE Mark Carney, BOC Stephen Poloz and BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda were all present and gave speeches.\r\n\r\nDraghi, Poloz and Carney talked about a change in policy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDRAGHI (ECB) – Basically his comments were walked back inside 24 hours as the single currency went on the rampage.\r\n\r\nAt his Press Conference last Thursday, Draghi did all he could to talk the EUR/USD, down, but to no avail. The market smelt blood and did NOT believe the dovish comments made and as a result the single currency strengthened across the board.\r\n\r\nIt now looks like The Jackson Hole Symposium next month and the October ECB meeting will be the times that the change in ECB policy will be discussed and details provided to the markets.\r\n\r\nThe single currency has moved from 1.0340 a to 1.1680, that is about 1,300 pips since December 2016.\r\n\r\nHow far will it go on ECB tapering and the beginning of interest rate normalization, I think 1.2600 is possible when all said and done. That is the 61.8% retracement from the 1.3990 highs in 2014 to the December 2016 lows of 1.0340.\r\n\r\n\r\nPOLOZ (BOC) – The man of action. He said rates were going to rise and they did by 0.25%. The move surrounding the hype and the actual rate increase effect was from 1.3550 to 1.2550, 1,000 pips or $0.10 cents.\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God, back in the day you would be lucky to see a $0.10 cent move for nothing less than 1.0% move in interest rates not for only a 0.25% hike. Is it any wonder Poloz appears happy at the moment with a “One and done” approach.\r\n\r\n\r\nCARNEY (BOE) – The “Flip-Flopper” was at it again. The week prior he held rates unchanged at the BOE. Admittedly the BOE vote at that time was 5-3 in favour of leaving rates unchanged although from the outside at that time Carney looked under pressure.\r\n\r\nA week later he’s talking about possible hikes into the end of 2017. A few days later after Sintra more bad economic data is released in the UK and rate hikes are once again off the agenda. In fact, one or two of the 3 from 5-3 MPC vote have subsequently now walked back their vote to say they would now not raise interest rates in the UK. But this does NOT stop the speculation.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nKURODA (BOJ) – Nothing new from yer man. He still needs bridgework on his teeth and basically Japan’s low rate policy remains in place…. unchanged.\r\n\r\n\r\nSince Sintra, we have heard from Dr. Philip Lowe, Governor from the RBA who surprised analysts by deciding to remain neutral on interest rates. This was only very recently re-emphasized by his deputy Guy Debelle, who told financial analysts just because other Central Banks are changing policy and moving on rates doesn’t mean the RBA should as well.\r\n\r\nThe way I look at this is that, the RBA have moved to neutral and are now firm neutral. It was only a short while ago with commodity prices struggling there were calls for a cut in interest rates and the reason that did not happen was because it would fuel the housing bubble in the Sydney market.\r\n\r\nA RBNZ spokesman was also on the wires stating that the RBNZ is not worried by the strength of the Kiwi dollar.\r\n\r\nOK…\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThere is movement and a stance change made or in the works in the next 6 months from, the ECB, the BOC, the RBA and the RBNZ.\r\n\r\nThe BOE, BOJ and SNB are in my eyes are not going to change.\r\n\r\nWhat about the FED?\r\n\r\nThis is where it gets interesting. The Fed has changed its approach and has walked back from its hawkish stance on raising rates. Because of this the USD (DXY) has continued its fall that has been in effect since the start of 2017.\r\n\r\nWe therefore have a DIVERGENCE TRADE possibility.\r\n\r\nIt would be very easy to trade the DXY but we should be smarter than that given the positions of the various USD major Central Banks.\r\n\r\nUSD (DXY) basket weighted as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUR 57.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 13.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP 11.9%</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD 9.1%</li>\r\n 	<li>SEK 4.2%</li>\r\n 	<li>CHF 3.6%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAs we know the JPY does its own thing most of the time and aligns with equities and bonds and can move in opposite directions to the DXY.\r\n\r\nThe GBP is under severe pressure from several factors that could see it move in an opposite direction to the DXY.\r\n\r\nTherefore roughly 25% of the index could trade opposite to the index ‘s direction. It would have an influence but maybe not a substantial one but an influence we should take into consideration.\r\n\r\nAt the start of 2017, I would never have thought that the DIVERGENCE trade would be against a weak USD, my thought process was always against a strong USD. But here we are with USD weakness.\r\n\r\nPick your pair carefully and if FED policy remains as is, all is good.\r\n\r\nBear in mind the next FOMC interest rate statement is this Wednesday, look for clues in the statement.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #142 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nDATE: 23rd July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE IS BACK', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'central-bank-divergence-back', '', '', '2017-07-22 07:00:09', '2017-07-22 12:00:09', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=9756', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
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(9757, 1, '2017-07-22 07:00:09', '2017-07-22 12:00:09', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI must admit that although we are in the summer, the summer doldrums trading experiences that we have seen in past years have not arrived yet. We may have thinner trading conditions and much less than usual liquidity in the market, but the moves are very much still out there.\r\n\r\nThe moves are not all Central Bank initiated, but one could say that the BOC and RBA have had great influences of late in moves surrounding the CAD and AUD. The GBP has BREXIT uncertainties, Theresa May’s tenuous grip on power and we have the BOE “flip-flopping”. The EUR has spiked higher on the news denied twice by the ECB and Draghi that the end of policy accommodation is in sight and that tapering will start and they normalize interest rates.\r\n\r\nSo all in all there is more than enough to feed a hungry market.\r\n\r\nThe winner (if there needs to be one) in all of this is the USD. Basically, it has weakened since “THE DONALD” was sworn in (see USD INDEX (DXY) below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9733\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017-1024x508.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"508\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWhen I talk about winners, I am really referring to exporters and keeping the wheels of industry greased and moving increasing the export nations competitive. From this perspective, the U.S. is winning and the EUROZONE is losing.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past three weeks I have written in the SOAPBOX section of this blog about: -\r\n\r\n1. July 15th: FX MARKET RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\n2. July 6th: THE TIPPING POINT.\r\n\r\n3. July 1st: (Regarding Central Banks) GAME KEEPERS are NOW POACHERS.\r\n\r\nAll three of these articles from this blog are current factors in the market today. I am not looking for a pat on the back but this information is FREE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe reason that I bring this up is because of something that occurred during the week. Like many of you, I subscribe to various market opinion sites for raw data, especially the various international banks around the globe. I use most of this data, especially the bank data to give me contrarian ideas moving forward which I pass on to my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nHowever, a trial period with an independent global research provider had come to an end. The continuation fees were about CAD$14,500.00 per annum. The information provided was not even FX specific, it was mostly opinion based upon fundamentals and I could not by any stretch of the imagination justify such costs for my business. As I explained to my contact, my Fundamentals emanate primarily from Central bank documentation because it is Central Bank Monetary Policy that fundamentally drives the FX market. The days of Greenspan and Trichet are long gone when an interpreter was required to dig deep to find out what they were saying. Nowadays transparency is the buzz word and the documentation available is clearly set out for all.\r\n\r\nMy fundamental interpretation plus technical set ups to provide trade set ups that can generate $$$ are provided for just CAD$1,250.00 per annum by comparison to the non-accountable fundamental data at CAD$14,500.00 a year that does not give entry or exit levels or follow ups on previous opinions.\r\n\r\nSubscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE receive detailed actual information that can generate $$$.\r\n\r\nPerhaps I am in the wrong business!!\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD: (REPUBLICAN HEALTHCARE PLAN… another rejection)\r\nNZD: (CPi)\r\nAUD: (RBA)\r\nThis all happened in the space of a couple of hours or so.\r\n\r\nLast Monday in between the NZD CPi and the RBA minutes from the last meeting being released the failure to proceed in the current draft was announced and the markets went crazy.\r\n\r\nPersonally; I was out at the time operating with only an iPAD. It was hard to gather data and trade effectively, so I took the cautious route and systematically closed every open trade. In the process, I think I banked about 150 pips but had I been in front of my screens with total access I would have seen more and read some back up and may not have carried out the “LOCK DOWN” move as I could have seen moves across 6 screens, compared to one device. Whilst I banked pips, I think there were about 1,000 additional pips thrown away as the reversal moves were powerful.\r\n\r\nQuite a few European PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were asleep through it all and woke up to some pleasant surprises the next day.\r\n\r\nPrior to the US news the NZD CPi data surprised most analysts by failing to meet expectations. The NZD pulled back and took the AUD with it. Around the same time as the Health Care news hit the wires the RBA minutes were released and they were more hawkish than the original interest rate statement from a couple of weeks ago.\r\n\r\nThat was double boost to the AUD which was already strengthening on the U.S. news, it took the NZD with it and all the cross rates.\r\n\r\nIt was around the RBA data that I was checking in on my iPAD. The rest is history as they say…. argh!!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>ECB: (Interest Rate Statement and Press Conference)\r\n\r\nWhat can I say that hasn’t already been said?\r\n\r\nGod love him (Mario Draghi).\r\n\r\nHe tried his best to be DOVISH every step of the way but the markets just did NOT believe a word of it and looking at Draghi when he was talking he looked like he did NOT believe the crap he was spouting.\r\n\r\nEvery man, woman and child, even my dogs Ozzy and Aoife know that the ECB will be tapering sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nDraghi did his best, spouting words and phrases such as: - 2018, December 2017, next year, extended period of time, not in the foreseeable future etc. etc…\r\n\r\nThe result was the EUR/USD climbed from 1.1480 to 1.1656. Feck knows what would have happened had he been HAWKISH!\r\n\r\nSo; it’s just when and not if. All eyes are now fixed on the Jackson Hole Symposium next month. EUR/USD at 1.2000 is NOT out of the realms of possibilities now. December 2016, it was at 1.0350.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: (CPi and Retail Sales)\r\n\r\nBREXIT scares the crap out of me and I believe that the market is just 110% complacent. The UK economy is starting to feel the pressure. Inflation and the relationship between inflation and wages is biting.\r\n\r\nCPi missed and Retail Sales beat. Big fecking deal on the Retail Sales; this in my opinion is mainly tourist driven based upon the UK being a cheap place to visit and one gets mucho £££ now in exchange for whatever.\r\n\r\nCable is under pressure as the news emanating from the BREXIT talks is hardly setting the world on fire and with the UK economic data mainly being poor, I think we are heading much lower again.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: (Employment Data)\r\n\r\nFantastic data a huge beat in the jobs numbers. The AUD initially spiked and then fell back overnight (for me) into the ECB press conference. It then rallied on broad continuing USD weakness and rather bizarrely the NZD/USD which had not really matched the upward move of the AUD/USD in recent days took the lead after the ECB, leaving the AUD/USD behind a little.\r\n\r\nWe should keep an eye on these moves moving forward. The charts all look bullish but the moves are not consistent.</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY: (BOJ Rate Statement)\r\n\r\nStop the presses.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ announced that it has extended its target deadline date to 2019 to reach its 2% inflation target.\r\n\r\nI want to comment without swearing…. feck that; Kuroda needs to get his arse in gear and start looking for a new job. I think that I will be six feet under pushing up daises before Japan has 2% inflation. There is more chance of hell freezing over.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9731\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-23072017-1024x958.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"958\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The big news this week surrounds the USD. This mean more nails in the coffin and could send the DXY towards 90.00.\r\n\r\nConsumer Confidence, an FOMC Rate Statement and Advance GDP are all key events. Plus, not on my chart are Durable Goods plus the usual weekly job numbers and OIL inventory data.\r\n\r\nIt should be an interesting week.\r\n\r\nWill Janet Yellen save or let the USD die? That is the question.\r\n\r\nThe cynic in me says if she wants another turn as FED chair she will kill the USD and please TRUMP. Did someone once state that the FED was independent?</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: GDP and the Inflation report hearings. These news events both could move the cable exchange rate substantially. Recent economic data (apart from last week’s Retail Sales) has been poor so further bad figures will increase the downside pressure on the cable.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9732\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-23072017-1024x847.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"847\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9744\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9745\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9743\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9746\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9747\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9748\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9749\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move, in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,598 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,003 net pips\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week the PREMIUM SERVICE added +310 net pips.\r\n\r\nJust before the ECB Press Conference last week, I decided apart from the AUD/NZD to go flat with my open trades.\r\n\r\nAs I have talked about recently we are RE-ALIGNING in the currency market. Upon first glance, it looks pretty clear. The USD is getting taken to the woodshed and getting a bloody good spanking. However, I think we should consider a couple of other things as well, namely the S&amp;P and the JPY.\r\nIt is very easy to trade outside of these factors in normal circumstances but I think we should be careful around not just the USD majors because of “THE DONALD” and “FED” uncertainties at the moment, but the cross-rates can also spark a move on a whim (ECB day last week EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD about face).\r\n\r\nTherefore, dare I say it but we need to exercise patience and be picky. I will be picky with the PREMIUM SERVICE trades so please allow for this, I would rather take 50 pips or so per day out of two or three smaller trades than aim for the 70-100 pip moves. Great if we can get them but I will now be aiming a little lower, until I have greater confidence.\r\n\r\nThe STRUCTURAL SHIFT is happening and the potential moves are huge. There are couple of no brainer trades in my opinion. Get in on small pullbacks and place stops wide, almost close your eyes and open them in 3 or 4 weeks’ time to bank the $$$, such as AUD/USD, AUD/NZD and EUR/USD long. Plus FUNDAMENTALLY I want to be short GBP/USD and possibly short GBP/CAD and USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nThese trades will be my initial focus.\r\n\r\nApart from the pairs noted above I will be as selective as possible based around my core trades. I hope that this makes sense. By the middle of this week I hope to fully loaded once again.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n</u>This is a new addition to this section. The SHORT or LONG indicators in the excel sheet are based on buying and selling pressure algorithms averaged for the time periods. I use these from time to time for confirmation of a trade. In addition, when I see the Short, Medium and Long term periods in alignment this gives me more confidence vis-à-vis a trades direction and who is in control of the currency pair, the bears or the bulls.\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n</u><u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/MKT-SENT-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9736\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/MKT-SENT-23072017-691x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"691\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u>Apart from a failing eye-sight glitch on setting a stop on the AUD/NZD at the correct level…argh!!, core trades are now being set up.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: (Not yet triggered)\r\n\r\nThis pair is the most interesting of all from my “no-brainers” noted above. The market expects 1.1711 to be tagged and then a corrective retrace to about 1.1200 or so. In normal market circumstances, I would agree to these thoughts without much debate. However, this current market is “squeezy”, non-believing of Mario Draghi and algorithm riddled with specific targets locked in.\r\n\r\nOn Friday, last week one day after Draghi’s ECB Press conference an ECB spokesperson stated that in October this year its Asset Purchasing Programme “Tapering” will be discussed. FFS - Draghi must have known this 24 hours earlier!\r\n\r\nAt the moment, maybe at 1.1700 we may get a small pullback to say a 38% Fibonacci to 1.1615 and then move back with the trend. My trade POS374 has an entry at 1.1590. I may need to tinker with this if I do not get the full pullback I want.\r\n\r\nI would NOT rule anything out. Given all the “TAPER FRENZY” and the markets desire for a huge EUR/USD corrective move, we need to be over this trade like a rash.\r\n\r\nNeedless to say, the EUR cross-rates will be drivers as well.\r\n\r\n\r\nAUD/USD: (Live)\r\n\r\nThis pair has broken out. 0.8000 is the immediate objective and I believe that 0.8400 is possible.\r\n\r\nA word of caution, the Deputy RBA Governor Guy Debelle, was speaking on Friday last week basically stating that there will be no rush to raise rates just because other Central Banks are doing so. The AUD pulled back 50-60 pips on this news and gave me the “BUYING THE DIP” opportunity as 3 trades triggered…happy days.\r\n\r\nTechnically, the AUD has already broken out and the RBA is trying to close the stable door after the horse has already bolted.\r\n\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nPrior to the “Debelle” comments this pair looked very constructive to the long side. It was whacked lower on the comments. Longer-term fair value for this pair is much higher.\r\n\r\nI must point out at this stage. The weekly closing candle looks bloody awful. If the start of the week does not see this pair move upwards in line with the AUD I may consider removing trades to re-enter again at lower levels. The candle looks poor. But fundamentally I am good. With this conflict, I need to see the start of the week and possibly make a decision by the close of the day on Monday.\r\n\r\nI have been in and out of the pair on the long side for about 3 years now and I have provided numerous head and shoulders patterns, bull flag measured moves, descending wedge breakouts… the lot. Basically, it is a slow mover but hopefully before I die it will back into the 1.20’s again!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD: (Live)\r\n\r\nThe more I read and see on TV regarding the UK government the more it looks like a shambolic collection of misfits that lack leadership, unity and God forbid direction on practically every subject. In certain aspects, it makes TRUMP look positively on the ball (I cannot believe I wrote that).\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT negotiations look amateurish and not thought out. The risk of a “No Deal” as highlighted last week by one of the UK negotiator’s Nick Fox happening is real. I cannot see how this benefits the UK. In fact, this does NOT benefit the EU either.\r\n\r\nI have documented this in the past but my reasons for being contrarian with this pair compared to most market analysts and commentators is because of: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT UNCERTAINTY.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAPITAL OUTFLOWS and FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS are now on the move out of the city. This will add more pressure.</li>\r\n 	<li>THERESA MAY’S tenuous position as leader and Prime Minister.</li>\r\n 	<li>KEY ECONOMIC DATA now turning sour.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOE committed to dovish approach for at least 2017.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis could be a challenging trade initially, I believe that 1.2775 is the pivot to pass to give me greater confidence. In the interim, the USD (TRUMP ISSUES) will from time to time effect the cable moves.\r\n\r\nI am using recent highs of just above 1.3100 as my line in the sand to exit if required. Therefore, from a RISK / REWARD perspective this trade position does appeal.<u>\r\n\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9735\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-23072017-934x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"934\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9734\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-23072017-841x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"841\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nCENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE IS BACK\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nThis week I am not writing about the end of the world or anything like that, after two weeks of writing about TIPPING POINTS and STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, to write about DIVERGENCE sounds rather boring by comparison.\r\n\r\nFor about 18 months and to me it does seem a hell of a lot longer, I have been banging on about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE and the possible trades that run alongside it.\r\n\r\nEarlier this year I thought that we had it, but “THE DONALD’S” ineffective management of the U.S. kicked that into touch no matter how aggressive the FED was in the early part of 2017. The USD (DXY) chart from the beginning of the blog is repeated below. It shows that even in a raising of rates scenario a currency can still NOT strengthen. <strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9733\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017-1024x508.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"508\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</strong>If you recall at the start of 2017 the FED stood in isolation of the G10 Central Banks. It started a policy of normalization with its interest rate policy. It did this whilst the other central banks inside the G10 stood still being dovish or at best neutral.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>Three weeks ago, on the 1st of July, I wrote a piece for this section called “THE GAMEKEEPERS are now THE POACHERS”. This was based upon the fact that the previous Central Banks that had remained dovish or neutral were starting to change their policy stance.\r\n\r\nAt an ECB Monetary Policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, ECB Mario Draghi, BOE Mark Carney, BOC Stephen Poloz and BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda were all present and gave speeches.\r\n\r\nDraghi, Poloz and Carney talked about a change in policy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDRAGHI (ECB) – Basically his comments were walked back inside 24 hours as the single currency went on the rampage.\r\n\r\nAt his Press Conference last Thursday, Draghi did all he could to talk the EUR/USD, down, but to no avail. The market smelt blood and did NOT believe the dovish comments made and as a result the single currency strengthened across the board.\r\n\r\nIt now looks like The Jackson Hole Symposium next month and the October ECB meeting will be the times that the change in ECB policy will be discussed and details provided to the markets.\r\n\r\nThe single currency has moved from 1.0340 a to 1.1680, that is about 1,300 pips since December 2016.\r\n\r\nHow far will it go on ECB tapering and the beginning of interest rate normalization, I think 1.2600 is possible when all said and done. That is the 61.8% retracement from the 1.3990 highs in 2014 to the December 2016 lows of 1.0340.\r\n\r\n\r\nPOLOZ (BOC) – The man of action. He said rates were going to rise and they did by 0.25%. The move surrounding the hype and the actual rate increase effect was from 1.3550 to 1.2550, 1,000 pips or $0.10 cents.\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God, back in the day you would be lucky to see a $0.10 cent move for nothing less than 1.0% move in interest rates not for only a 0.25% hike. Is it any wonder Poloz appears happy at the moment with a “One and done” approach.\r\n\r\n\r\nCARNEY (BOE) – The “Flip-Flopper” was at it again. The week prior he held rates unchanged at the BOE. Admittedly the BOE vote at that time was 5-3 in favour of leaving rates unchanged although from the outside at that time Carney looked under pressure.\r\n\r\nA week later he’s talking about possible hikes into the end of 2017. A few days later after Sintra more bad economic data is released in the UK and rate hikes are once again off the agenda. In fact, one or two of the 3 from 5-3 MPC vote have subsequently now walked back their vote to say they would now not raise interest rates in the UK. But this does NOT stop the speculation.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nKURODA (BOJ) – Nothing new from yer man. He still needs bridgework on his teeth and basically Japan’s low rate policy remains in place…. unchanged.\r\n\r\n\r\nSince Sintra, we have heard from Dr. Philip Lowe, Governor from the RBA who surprised analysts by deciding to remain neutral on interest rates. This was only very recently re-emphasized by his deputy Guy Debelle, who told financial analysts just because other Central Banks are changing policy and moving on rates doesn’t mean the RBA should as well.\r\n\r\nThe way I look at this is that, the RBA have moved to neutral and are now firm neutral. It was only a short while ago with commodity prices struggling there were calls for a cut in interest rates and the reason that did not happen was because it would fuel the housing bubble in the Sydney market.\r\n\r\nA RBNZ spokesman was also on the wires stating that the RBNZ is not worried by the strength of the Kiwi dollar.\r\n\r\nOK…\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThere is movement and a stance change made or in the works in the next 6 months from, the ECB, the BOC, the RBA and the RBNZ.\r\n\r\nThe BOE, BOJ and SNB are in my eyes are not going to change.\r\n\r\nWhat about the FED?\r\n\r\nThis is where it gets interesting. The Fed has changed its approach and has walked back from its hawkish stance on raising rates. Because of this the USD (DXY) has continued its fall that has been in effect since the start of 2017.\r\n\r\nWe therefore have a DIVERGENCE TRADE possibility.\r\n\r\nIt would be very easy to trade the DXY but we should be smarter than that given the positions of the various USD major Central Banks.\r\n\r\nUSD (DXY) basket weighted as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUR 57.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 13.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP 11.9%</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD 9.1%</li>\r\n 	<li>SEK 4.2%</li>\r\n 	<li>CHF 3.6%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAs we know the JPY does its own thing most of the time and aligns with equities and bonds and can move in opposite directions to the DXY.\r\n\r\nThe GBP is under severe pressure from several factors that could see it move in an opposite direction to the DXY.\r\n\r\nTherefore roughly 25% of the index could trade opposite to the index ‘s direction. It would have an influence but maybe not a substantial one but an influence we should take into consideration.\r\n\r\nAt the start of 2017, I would never have thought that the DIVERGENCE trade would be against a weak USD, my thought process was always against a strong USD. But here we are with USD weakness.\r\n\r\nPick your pair carefully and if FED policy remains as is, all is good.\r\n\r\nBear in mind the next FOMC interest rate statement is this Wednesday, look for clues in the statement.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #142 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nDATE: 23rd July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE IS BACK', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9756-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-22 07:00:09', '2017-07-22 12:00:09', '', 9756, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9756-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(9758, 1, '2017-07-22 07:28:29', '2017-07-22 12:28:29', '<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI must admit that although we are in the summer, the summer doldrums trading experiences that we have seen in past years have not arrived yet. We may have thinner trading conditions and much less than usual liquidity in the market, but the moves are very much still out there.\r\n\r\nThe moves are not all Central Bank initiated, but one could say that the BOC and RBA have had great influences of late in moves surrounding the CAD and AUD. The GBP has BREXIT uncertainties, Theresa May’s tenuous grip on power and we have the BOE “flip-flopping”. The EUR has spiked higher on the news denied twice by the ECB and Draghi that the end of policy accommodation is in sight and that tapering will start and they normalize interest rates.\r\n\r\nSo all in all there is more than enough to feed a hungry market.\r\n\r\nThe winner (if there needs to be one) in all of this is the USD. Basically, it has weakened since “THE DONALD” was sworn in (see USD INDEX (DXY) below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9733\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017-1024x508.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"508\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWhen I talk about winners, I am really referring to exporters and keeping the wheels of industry greased and moving increasing the export nations competitive. From this perspective, the U.S. is winning and the EUROZONE is losing.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past three weeks I have written in the SOAPBOX section of this blog about: -\r\n\r\n1. July 15th - FX MARKET RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\n2. July 6th - THE TIPPING POINT.\r\n\r\n3. July 1st - Regarding Central Banks, GAME KEEPERS are NOW POACHERS.\r\n\r\nAll three of these articles from this blog are current factors in the market today. I am not looking for a pat on the back but this information is FREE.\r\n\r\nThe reason that I bring this up is because of something that occurred during the week. Like many of you, I subscribe to various market opinion sites for raw data, especially the various international banks around the globe. I use most of this data, especially the bank data to give me contrarian ideas moving forward which I pass on to my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nHowever, a trial period with an independent global research provider had come to an end. The continuation fees were about CAD$14,500.00 per annum. The information provided was not even FX specific, it was mostly opinion based upon fundamentals and I could not by any stretch of the imagination justify such costs for my business. As I explained to my contact, my Fundamentals emanate primarily from Central bank documentation because it is Central Bank Monetary Policy that fundamentally drives the FX market. The days of Greenspan and Trichet are long gone when an interpreter was required to dig deep to find out what they were saying. Nowadays transparency is the buzz word and the documentation available is clearly set out for all.\r\n\r\nMy fundamental interpretation plus technical set ups to provide trade set ups that can generate $$$ are provided for just CAD$1,250.00 per annum by comparison to the non-accountable fundamental data at CAD$14,500.00 a year that does not give entry or exit levels or follow ups on previous opinions.\r\n\r\nSubscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE receive detailed actual information that can generate $$$.\r\n\r\nPerhaps I am in the wrong business!!\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD: (REPUBLICAN HEALTHCARE PLAN… another rejection)\r\nNZD: (CPi)\r\nAUD: (RBA)\r\nThis all happened in the space of a couple of hours or so.\r\n\r\nLast Monday in between the NZD CPi and the RBA minutes from the last meeting being released the failure to proceed in the current draft was announced and the markets went crazy.\r\n\r\nPersonally; I was out at the time operating with only an iPAD. It was hard to gather data and trade effectively, so I took the cautious route and systematically closed every open trade. In the process, I think I banked about 150 pips but had I been in front of my screens with total access I would have seen more and read some back up and may not have carried out the “LOCK DOWN” move as I could have seen moves across 6 screens, compared to one device. Whilst I banked pips, I think there were about 1,000 additional pips thrown away as the reversal moves were powerful.\r\n\r\nQuite a few European PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were asleep through it all and woke up to some pleasant surprises the next day.\r\n\r\nPrior to the US news the NZD CPi data surprised most analysts by failing to meet expectations. The NZD pulled back and took the AUD with it. Around the same time as the Health Care news hit the wires the RBA minutes were released and they were more hawkish than the original interest rate statement from a couple of weeks ago.\r\n\r\nThat was double boost to the AUD which was already strengthening on the U.S. news, it took the NZD with it and all the cross rates.\r\n\r\nIt was around the RBA data that I was checking in on my iPAD. The rest is history as they say…. argh!!</li>\r\n 	<li>ECB: (Interest Rate Statement and Press Conference)\r\n\r\nWhat can I say that hasn’t already been said?\r\n\r\nGod love him (Mario Draghi).\r\n\r\nHe tried his best to be DOVISH every step of the way but the markets just did NOT believe a word of it and looking at Draghi when he was talking he looked like he did NOT believe the crap he was spouting.\r\n\r\nEvery man, woman and child, even my dogs Ozzy and Aoife know that the ECB will be tapering sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nDraghi did his best, spouting words and phrases such as: - 2018, December 2017, next year, extended period of time, not in the foreseeable future etc. etc…\r\n\r\nThe result was the EUR/USD climbed from 1.1480 to 1.1656. Feck knows what would have happened had he been HAWKISH!\r\n\r\nSo; it’s just when and not if. All eyes are now fixed on the Jackson Hole Symposium next month. EUR/USD at 1.2000 is NOT out of the realms of possibilities now. December 2016, it was at 1.0350.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: (CPi and Retail Sales)\r\n\r\nBREXIT scares the crap out of me and I believe that the market is just 110% complacent. The UK economy is starting to feel the pressure. Inflation and the relationship between inflation and wages is biting.\r\n\r\nCPi missed and Retail Sales beat. Big fecking deal on the Retail Sales; this in my opinion is mainly tourist driven based upon the UK being a cheap place to visit and one gets mucho £££ now in exchange for whatever.\r\n\r\nCable is under pressure as the news emanating from the BREXIT talks is hardly setting the world on fire and with the UK economic data mainly being poor, I think we are heading much lower again.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: (Employment Data)\r\n\r\nFantastic data a huge beat in the jobs numbers. The AUD initially spiked and then fell back overnight (for me) into the ECB press conference. It then rallied on broad continuing USD weakness and rather bizarrely the NZD/USD which had not really matched the upward move of the AUD/USD in recent days took the lead after the ECB, leaving the AUD/USD behind a little.\r\n\r\nWe should keep an eye on these moves moving forward. The charts all look bullish but the moves are not consistent.</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY: (BOJ Rate Statement)\r\n\r\nStop the presses.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ announced that it has extended its target deadline date to 2019 to reach its 2% inflation target.\r\n\r\nI want to comment without swearing…. feck that; Kuroda needs to get his arse in gear and start looking for a new job. I think that I will be six feet under pushing up daises before Japan has 2% inflation. There is more chance of hell freezing over.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9731\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-23072017-1024x958.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"958\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The big news this week surrounds the USD. This mean more nails in the coffin and could send the DXY towards 90.00.\r\n\r\nConsumer Confidence, an FOMC Rate Statement and Advance GDP are all key events. Plus, not on my chart are Durable Goods plus the usual weekly job numbers and OIL inventory data.\r\n\r\nIt should be an interesting week.\r\n\r\nWill Janet Yellen save or let the USD die? That is the question.\r\n\r\nThe cynic in me says if she wants another turn as FED chair she will kill the USD and please TRUMP. Did someone once state that the FED was independent?</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: GDP and the Inflation report hearings. These news events both could move the cable exchange rate substantially. Recent economic data (apart from last week’s Retail Sales) has been poor so further bad figures will increase the downside pressure on the cable.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9732\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-23072017-1024x847.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"847\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9744\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9745\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9743\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9746\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9747\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9748\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9749\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move, in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,598 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,003 net pips\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nCENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE IS BACK\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nThis week I am not writing about the end of the world or anything like that, after two weeks of writing about TIPPING POINTS and STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, to write about DIVERGENCE sounds rather boring by comparison.\r\n\r\nFor about 18 months and to me it does seem a hell of a lot longer, I have been banging on about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE and the possible trades that run alongside it.\r\n\r\nEarlier this year I thought that we had it, but “THE DONALD’S” ineffective management of the U.S. kicked that into touch no matter how aggressive the FED was in the early part of 2017. The USD (DXY) chart from the beginning of the blog is repeated below. It shows that even in a raising of rates scenario a currency can still NOT strengthen. <strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9733\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017-1024x508.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"508\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</strong>If you recall at the start of 2017 the FED stood in isolation of the G10 Central Banks. It started a policy of normalization with its interest rate policy. It did this whilst the other central banks inside the G10 stood still being dovish or at best neutral.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>Three weeks ago, on the 1st of July, I wrote a piece for this section called “THE GAMEKEEPERS are now THE POACHERS”. This was based upon the fact that the previous Central Banks that had remained dovish or neutral were starting to change their policy stance.\r\n\r\nAt an ECB Monetary Policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, ECB Mario Draghi, BOE Mark Carney, BOC Stephen Poloz and BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda were all present and gave speeches.\r\n\r\nDraghi, Poloz and Carney talked about a change in policy.\r\n\r\n<strong>DRAGHI (ECB)</strong> – Basically his comments were walked back inside 24 hours as the single currency went on the rampage.\r\n\r\nAt his Press Conference last Thursday, Draghi did all he could to talk the EUR/USD, down, but to no avail. The market smelt blood and did NOT believe the dovish comments made and as a result the single currency strengthened across the board.\r\n\r\nIt now looks like The Jackson Hole Symposium next month and the October ECB meeting will be the times that the change in ECB policy will be discussed and details provided to the markets.\r\n\r\nThe single currency has moved from 1.0340 a to 1.1680, that is about 1,300 pips since December 2016.\r\n\r\nHow far will it go on ECB tapering and the beginning of interest rate normalization, I think 1.2600 is possible when all said and done. That is the 61.8% retracement from the 1.3990 highs in 2014 to the December 2016 lows of 1.0340.\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>POLOZ (BOC)</strong> – The man of action. He said rates were going to rise and they did by 0.25%. The move surrounding the hype and the actual rate increase effect was from 1.3550 to 1.2550, 1,000 pips or $0.10 cents.\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God, back in the day you would be lucky to see a $0.10 cent move for nothing less than 1.0% move in interest rates not for only a 0.25% hike. Is it any wonder Poloz appears happy at the moment with a “One and done” approach.\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>CARNEY (BOE)</strong> – The “Flip-Flopper” was at it again. The week prior he held rates unchanged at the BOE. Admittedly the BOE vote at that time was 5-3 in favour of leaving rates unchanged although from the outside at that time Carney looked under pressure.\r\n\r\nA week later he’s talking about possible hikes into the end of 2017. A few days later after Sintra more bad economic data is released in the UK and rate hikes are once again off the agenda. In fact, one or two of the 3 from 5-3 MPC vote have subsequently now walked back their vote to say they would now not raise interest rates in the UK. But this does NOT stop the speculation.\r\n\r\n<strong>KURODA (BOJ)</strong> – Nothing new from yer man. He still needs bridgework on his teeth and basically Japan’s low rate policy remains in place…. unchanged.\r\n\r\n\r\nSince Sintra, we have heard from Dr. Philip Lowe, Governor from the RBA who surprised analysts by deciding to remain neutral on interest rates. This was only very recently re-emphasized by his deputy Guy Debelle, who told financial analysts just because other Central Banks are changing policy and moving on rates doesn’t mean the RBA should as well.\r\n\r\nThe way I look at this is that, the RBA have moved to neutral and are now firm neutral. It was only a short while ago with commodity prices struggling there were calls for a cut in interest rates and the reason that did not happen was because it would fuel the housing bubble in the Sydney market.\r\n\r\nA RBNZ spokesman was also on the wires stating that the RBNZ is not worried by the strength of the Kiwi dollar.\r\n\r\nOK…\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThere is movement and a stance change made or in the works in the next 6 months from, the ECB, the BOC, the RBA and the RBNZ.\r\n\r\nThe BOE, BOJ and SNB are in my eyes are not going to change.\r\n\r\nWhat about the FED?\r\n\r\nThis is where it gets interesting. The Fed has changed its approach and has walked back from its hawkish stance on raising rates. Because of this the USD (DXY) has continued its fall that has been in effect since the start of 2017.\r\n\r\nWe therefore have a DIVERGENCE TRADE possibility.\r\n\r\nIt would be very easy to trade the DXY but we should be smarter than that given the positions of the various USD major Central Banks.\r\n\r\nUSD (DXY) basket weighted as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUR 57.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 13.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP 11.9%</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD 9.1%</li>\r\n 	<li>SEK 4.2%</li>\r\n 	<li>CHF 3.6%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAs we know the JPY does its own thing most of the time and aligns with equities and bonds and can move in opposite directions to the DXY.\r\n\r\nThe GBP is under severe pressure from several factors that could see it move in an opposite direction to the DXY.\r\n\r\nTherefore roughly 25% of the index could trade opposite to the index ‘s direction. It would have an influence but maybe not a substantial one but an influence we should take into consideration.\r\n\r\nAt the start of 2017, I would never have thought that the DIVERGENCE trade would be against a weak USD, my thought process was always against a strong USD. But here we are with USD weakness.\r\n\r\nPick your pair carefully and if FED policy remains as is, all is good.\r\n\r\nBear in mind the next FOMC interest rate statement is this Wednesday, look for clues in the statement.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #246 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 23rd July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE IS BACK', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'central-bank-divergence-back', '', '', '2017-07-22 07:28:29', '2017-07-22 12:28:29', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=9758', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(9759, 1, '2017-07-22 07:28:29', '2017-07-22 12:28:29', '<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI must admit that although we are in the summer, the summer doldrums trading experiences that we have seen in past years have not arrived yet. We may have thinner trading conditions and much less than usual liquidity in the market, but the moves are very much still out there.\r\n\r\nThe moves are not all Central Bank initiated, but one could say that the BOC and RBA have had great influences of late in moves surrounding the CAD and AUD. The GBP has BREXIT uncertainties, Theresa May’s tenuous grip on power and we have the BOE “flip-flopping”. The EUR has spiked higher on the news denied twice by the ECB and Draghi that the end of policy accommodation is in sight and that tapering will start and they normalize interest rates.\r\n\r\nSo all in all there is more than enough to feed a hungry market.\r\n\r\nThe winner (if there needs to be one) in all of this is the USD. Basically, it has weakened since “THE DONALD” was sworn in (see USD INDEX (DXY) below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9733\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017-1024x508.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"508\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWhen I talk about winners, I am really referring to exporters and keeping the wheels of industry greased and moving increasing the export nations competitive. From this perspective, the U.S. is winning and the EUROZONE is losing.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past three weeks I have written in the SOAPBOX section of this blog about: -\r\n\r\n1. July 15th - FX MARKET RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\n2. July 6th - THE TIPPING POINT.\r\n\r\n3. July 1st - Regarding Central Banks, GAME KEEPERS are NOW POACHERS.\r\n\r\nAll three of these articles from this blog are current factors in the market today. I am not looking for a pat on the back but this information is FREE.\r\n\r\nThe reason that I bring this up is because of something that occurred during the week. Like many of you, I subscribe to various market opinion sites for raw data, especially the various international banks around the globe. I use most of this data, especially the bank data to give me contrarian ideas moving forward which I pass on to my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nHowever, a trial period with an independent global research provider had come to an end. The continuation fees were about CAD$14,500.00 per annum. The information provided was not even FX specific, it was mostly opinion based upon fundamentals and I could not by any stretch of the imagination justify such costs for my business. As I explained to my contact, my Fundamentals emanate primarily from Central bank documentation because it is Central Bank Monetary Policy that fundamentally drives the FX market. The days of Greenspan and Trichet are long gone when an interpreter was required to dig deep to find out what they were saying. Nowadays transparency is the buzz word and the documentation available is clearly set out for all.\r\n\r\nMy fundamental interpretation plus technical set ups to provide trade set ups that can generate $$$ are provided for just CAD$1,250.00 per annum by comparison to the non-accountable fundamental data at CAD$14,500.00 a year that does not give entry or exit levels or follow ups on previous opinions.\r\n\r\nSubscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE receive detailed actual information that can generate $$$.\r\n\r\nPerhaps I am in the wrong business!!\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD: (REPUBLICAN HEALTHCARE PLAN… another rejection)\r\nNZD: (CPi)\r\nAUD: (RBA)\r\nThis all happened in the space of a couple of hours or so.\r\n\r\nLast Monday in between the NZD CPi and the RBA minutes from the last meeting being released the failure to proceed in the current draft was announced and the markets went crazy.\r\n\r\nPersonally; I was out at the time operating with only an iPAD. It was hard to gather data and trade effectively, so I took the cautious route and systematically closed every open trade. In the process, I think I banked about 150 pips but had I been in front of my screens with total access I would have seen more and read some back up and may not have carried out the “LOCK DOWN” move as I could have seen moves across 6 screens, compared to one device. Whilst I banked pips, I think there were about 1,000 additional pips thrown away as the reversal moves were powerful.\r\n\r\nQuite a few European PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were asleep through it all and woke up to some pleasant surprises the next day.\r\n\r\nPrior to the US news the NZD CPi data surprised most analysts by failing to meet expectations. The NZD pulled back and took the AUD with it. Around the same time as the Health Care news hit the wires the RBA minutes were released and they were more hawkish than the original interest rate statement from a couple of weeks ago.\r\n\r\nThat was double boost to the AUD which was already strengthening on the U.S. news, it took the NZD with it and all the cross rates.\r\n\r\nIt was around the RBA data that I was checking in on my iPAD. The rest is history as they say…. argh!!</li>\r\n 	<li>ECB: (Interest Rate Statement and Press Conference)\r\n\r\nWhat can I say that hasn’t already been said?\r\n\r\nGod love him (Mario Draghi).\r\n\r\nHe tried his best to be DOVISH every step of the way but the markets just did NOT believe a word of it and looking at Draghi when he was talking he looked like he did NOT believe the crap he was spouting.\r\n\r\nEvery man, woman and child, even my dogs Ozzy and Aoife know that the ECB will be tapering sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nDraghi did his best, spouting words and phrases such as: - 2018, December 2017, next year, extended period of time, not in the foreseeable future etc. etc…\r\n\r\nThe result was the EUR/USD climbed from 1.1480 to 1.1656. Feck knows what would have happened had he been HAWKISH!\r\n\r\nSo; it’s just when and not if. All eyes are now fixed on the Jackson Hole Symposium next month. EUR/USD at 1.2000 is NOT out of the realms of possibilities now. December 2016, it was at 1.0350.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: (CPi and Retail Sales)\r\n\r\nBREXIT scares the crap out of me and I believe that the market is just 110% complacent. The UK economy is starting to feel the pressure. Inflation and the relationship between inflation and wages is biting.\r\n\r\nCPi missed and Retail Sales beat. Big fecking deal on the Retail Sales; this in my opinion is mainly tourist driven based upon the UK being a cheap place to visit and one gets mucho £££ now in exchange for whatever.\r\n\r\nCable is under pressure as the news emanating from the BREXIT talks is hardly setting the world on fire and with the UK economic data mainly being poor, I think we are heading much lower again.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: (Employment Data)\r\n\r\nFantastic data a huge beat in the jobs numbers. The AUD initially spiked and then fell back overnight (for me) into the ECB press conference. It then rallied on broad continuing USD weakness and rather bizarrely the NZD/USD which had not really matched the upward move of the AUD/USD in recent days took the lead after the ECB, leaving the AUD/USD behind a little.\r\n\r\nWe should keep an eye on these moves moving forward. The charts all look bullish but the moves are not consistent.</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY: (BOJ Rate Statement)\r\n\r\nStop the presses.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ announced that it has extended its target deadline date to 2019 to reach its 2% inflation target.\r\n\r\nI want to comment without swearing…. feck that; Kuroda needs to get his arse in gear and start looking for a new job. I think that I will be six feet under pushing up daises before Japan has 2% inflation. There is more chance of hell freezing over.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9731\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-23072017-1024x958.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"958\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The big news this week surrounds the USD. This mean more nails in the coffin and could send the DXY towards 90.00.\r\n\r\nConsumer Confidence, an FOMC Rate Statement and Advance GDP are all key events. Plus, not on my chart are Durable Goods plus the usual weekly job numbers and OIL inventory data.\r\n\r\nIt should be an interesting week.\r\n\r\nWill Janet Yellen save or let the USD die? That is the question.\r\n\r\nThe cynic in me says if she wants another turn as FED chair she will kill the USD and please TRUMP. Did someone once state that the FED was independent?</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: GDP and the Inflation report hearings. These news events both could move the cable exchange rate substantially. Recent economic data (apart from last week’s Retail Sales) has been poor so further bad figures will increase the downside pressure on the cable.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9732\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-23072017-1024x847.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"847\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9744\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9745\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9743\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9746\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9747\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9748\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9749\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move, in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,598 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,003 net pips\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nCENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE IS BACK\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nThis week I am not writing about the end of the world or anything like that, after two weeks of writing about TIPPING POINTS and STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, to write about DIVERGENCE sounds rather boring by comparison.\r\n\r\nFor about 18 months and to me it does seem a hell of a lot longer, I have been banging on about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE and the possible trades that run alongside it.\r\n\r\nEarlier this year I thought that we had it, but “THE DONALD’S” ineffective management of the U.S. kicked that into touch no matter how aggressive the FED was in the early part of 2017. The USD (DXY) chart from the beginning of the blog is repeated below. It shows that even in a raising of rates scenario a currency can still NOT strengthen. <strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9733\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017-1024x508.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"508\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</strong>If you recall at the start of 2017 the FED stood in isolation of the G10 Central Banks. It started a policy of normalization with its interest rate policy. It did this whilst the other central banks inside the G10 stood still being dovish or at best neutral.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>Three weeks ago, on the 1st of July, I wrote a piece for this section called “THE GAMEKEEPERS are now THE POACHERS”. This was based upon the fact that the previous Central Banks that had remained dovish or neutral were starting to change their policy stance.\r\n\r\nAt an ECB Monetary Policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, ECB Mario Draghi, BOE Mark Carney, BOC Stephen Poloz and BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda were all present and gave speeches.\r\n\r\nDraghi, Poloz and Carney talked about a change in policy.\r\n\r\n<strong>DRAGHI (ECB)</strong> – Basically his comments were walked back inside 24 hours as the single currency went on the rampage.\r\n\r\nAt his Press Conference last Thursday, Draghi did all he could to talk the EUR/USD, down, but to no avail. The market smelt blood and did NOT believe the dovish comments made and as a result the single currency strengthened across the board.\r\n\r\nIt now looks like The Jackson Hole Symposium next month and the October ECB meeting will be the times that the change in ECB policy will be discussed and details provided to the markets.\r\n\r\nThe single currency has moved from 1.0340 a to 1.1680, that is about 1,300 pips since December 2016.\r\n\r\nHow far will it go on ECB tapering and the beginning of interest rate normalization, I think 1.2600 is possible when all said and done. That is the 61.8% retracement from the 1.3990 highs in 2014 to the December 2016 lows of 1.0340.\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>POLOZ (BOC)</strong> – The man of action. He said rates were going to rise and they did by 0.25%. The move surrounding the hype and the actual rate increase effect was from 1.3550 to 1.2550, 1,000 pips or $0.10 cents.\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God, back in the day you would be lucky to see a $0.10 cent move for nothing less than 1.0% move in interest rates not for only a 0.25% hike. Is it any wonder Poloz appears happy at the moment with a “One and done” approach.\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>CARNEY (BOE)</strong> – The “Flip-Flopper” was at it again. The week prior he held rates unchanged at the BOE. Admittedly the BOE vote at that time was 5-3 in favour of leaving rates unchanged although from the outside at that time Carney looked under pressure.\r\n\r\nA week later he’s talking about possible hikes into the end of 2017. A few days later after Sintra more bad economic data is released in the UK and rate hikes are once again off the agenda. In fact, one or two of the 3 from 5-3 MPC vote have subsequently now walked back their vote to say they would now not raise interest rates in the UK. But this does NOT stop the speculation.\r\n\r\n<strong>KURODA (BOJ)</strong> – Nothing new from yer man. He still needs bridgework on his teeth and basically Japan’s low rate policy remains in place…. unchanged.\r\n\r\n\r\nSince Sintra, we have heard from Dr. Philip Lowe, Governor from the RBA who surprised analysts by deciding to remain neutral on interest rates. This was only very recently re-emphasized by his deputy Guy Debelle, who told financial analysts just because other Central Banks are changing policy and moving on rates doesn’t mean the RBA should as well.\r\n\r\nThe way I look at this is that, the RBA have moved to neutral and are now firm neutral. It was only a short while ago with commodity prices struggling there were calls for a cut in interest rates and the reason that did not happen was because it would fuel the housing bubble in the Sydney market.\r\n\r\nA RBNZ spokesman was also on the wires stating that the RBNZ is not worried by the strength of the Kiwi dollar.\r\n\r\nOK…\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThere is movement and a stance change made or in the works in the next 6 months from, the ECB, the BOC, the RBA and the RBNZ.\r\n\r\nThe BOE, BOJ and SNB are in my eyes are not going to change.\r\n\r\nWhat about the FED?\r\n\r\nThis is where it gets interesting. The Fed has changed its approach and has walked back from its hawkish stance on raising rates. Because of this the USD (DXY) has continued its fall that has been in effect since the start of 2017.\r\n\r\nWe therefore have a DIVERGENCE TRADE possibility.\r\n\r\nIt would be very easy to trade the DXY but we should be smarter than that given the positions of the various USD major Central Banks.\r\n\r\nUSD (DXY) basket weighted as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUR 57.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 13.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP 11.9%</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD 9.1%</li>\r\n 	<li>SEK 4.2%</li>\r\n 	<li>CHF 3.6%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAs we know the JPY does its own thing most of the time and aligns with equities and bonds and can move in opposite directions to the DXY.\r\n\r\nThe GBP is under severe pressure from several factors that could see it move in an opposite direction to the DXY.\r\n\r\nTherefore roughly 25% of the index could trade opposite to the index ‘s direction. It would have an influence but maybe not a substantial one but an influence we should take into consideration.\r\n\r\nAt the start of 2017, I would never have thought that the DIVERGENCE trade would be against a weak USD, my thought process was always against a strong USD. But here we are with USD weakness.\r\n\r\nPick your pair carefully and if FED policy remains as is, all is good.\r\n\r\nBear in mind the next FOMC interest rate statement is this Wednesday, look for clues in the statement.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #246 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 23rd July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE IS BACK', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9758-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-22 07:28:29', '2017-07-22 12:28:29', '', 9758, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9758-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(9780, 1, '2017-07-29 09:50:30', '2017-07-29 14:50:30', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was all about the FOMC statement.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective I added pips to the annual PREMIUM SERVICE tally and overall it was a good trading week.  Just over +1,800 net pips this month so far with one trading day left, I am not expecting a total of over 2,000 pips for the month but you just never know!\r\n\r\nMy thought process starting this week is unfortunately that we will probably revert to the usual summer range trading environment. The FOMC was the last big new event in my opinion pre-The Jackson Hole Symposium. Having just written that I do realise that this week has some major and important news events listed on the economic calendar.\r\n\r\nNext week is the last “DRIVE THRU” blog for four weeks. I will be on my summer break. I will still be trading but not with the same intensity. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers will still know that I am around, I will not disappear completely off the grid.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: FOMC Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nThis item dominated the news last week for several reasons.\r\n\r\nFirstly, it was the first communication since Janet Yellen announced in her senate testimony a couple of weeks ago that the FED would be looking to taper its balance sheet by selling off the gazillions of bonds it purchased over the last number of years and that its policy of interest rate normalization would be on hold for the time being due to several economic factors.\r\n\r\nSecondly, as we all know Janet Yellen is a Dove. Even when she reads a Hawkish statement it sounds dovish! Would she resume normal service?\r\n\r\nThirdly, what data/ timelines would the markets receive on the tapering schedule?\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, I thought she was dovish. Although several well-respected analysts have since said it was NOT that much of a dovish statement.\r\n\r\nThe bond market did not like it and after 15-20 minutes it moved suddenly and the EUR/USD rallied through 1.1700 which, prior to the bond move had held well. After the bond move the EUR/USD was off to the races and it took the FX market with it.\r\n\r\nWhat did Janet Yellen say?\r\n\r\nIn all honesty, she said nothing new; the news about tapering was that it would start “relatively soon”. She acknowledged that inflation was an issue and that it was below the FED 2% objective. The chance of a September rate hike looks like a “no chance” and this is probably what put the winds into the sails of the bond prices.\r\n\r\nWriting generally…\r\n\r\nIt’s all been so well documented what can I add. We really do analyze every word of the prepared Central Bank statements to death.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day, how many times a year do the Central Bank’s move their goal posts on GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Rates just to name three items?\r\n\r\nThe goal posts move which then creates a shift in emphasis and therefore what was previously in place as a target is no longer there anymore and then the cycle starts again.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt economic fundamentals can change requiring adjustments, but sometimes moving the numbers is a ploy to hide failings and relieve scrutiny of a management approach or style in my opinion.\r\n\r\nI am not pointing the finger at any one Central Bank President or Governor, but they all know how to play the game and use the data in their favour.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>CAD: GDP (Beat 0.6% versus 0.2%)\r\n\r\nAll eyes will now be on Stephen Poloz and the BOC given the fact economic data of late has been more bullish the CAD than bearish and all eyes will be on the BOC to see if they will continue with their policy of raising interest rates.\r\n\r\nI think I mentioned this last week or maybe the week before, the move lower in the USD/CAD is now about $0.12 cents which in the good old days was equivalent to about a 1% rate cut all in. Poloz has gotten this move lower of over 1,200 pips for just some jawboning and 0.25%... not too bad.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9761\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-30072017-1024x1019.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1019\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Obviously, the pick of the week is US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, however, before that we have a plethora of data that should provide some volatility.\r\n\r\nI am looking forward to this week’s news events.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>AUD: A big week for AUD data. The RBA issues its latest interest rate statement. We will see the latest Trade Balance numbers and an updated RBA Policy Statement will be released as well as at the latest Retail Sales numbers.\r\n\r\nOver the past couple of weeks the RBA has gone to great lengths to let the markets know they are quite happy with a neutral interest rate policy and that just because other Central Banks are moving to a policy of normalization it does NOT mean that the RBA will follow suit.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am not so sure that the RBA will be happy with the AUD/USD exchange rate pushing 0.8000. There may be some jawboning this week to try to keep the lid on the currency racing away. I am not sure with jawboning if this would have any effect at all, if that is a course of action that takes place. Let’s see what happens.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: This is a very, very big week for the UK. PMi data of late has been poor. We have the BOE inflation report and another MPC interest rate vote. Last month, the vote to keep rates unchanged was 5-3, the market was expecting 7-1. This will be interesting to see if the voting members that voted to hike last month have changed their opinions in view of the poor economic data that we have seen lately. Plus, we have a Carney speech.\r\n\r\nOne can hardly contain one’s excitement!</li>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs data in New Zealand is always a market mover. Recent commentary from the RBNZ has basically been along the lines of “We couldn’t give a crap about the NZD/USD at 0.7400, there’s feck all we can do about it anyway”. Enough said, however, … let’s get the “algo’s” to push it to 0.8000 and see what the RBNZ says then!\r\n\r\nAlgo’s take note!</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs data. If the CAD beats expectations, the rumour of more rate increases this year will hit fever pitch and the call from a trader buddy of mine saying 1.1500 is possible… could be on.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Jobs and ISM data are the pick. I am not so sure that the NFP data this week is going to be that important vis-a-vis the FED’s interest rate normalization policy. It will without doubt create “chaos and disorder” on the day but I am not convinced of any greater importance than just seeing what the stats are. The ISM data will be read carefully.\r\n\r\nEconomic data has been very mixed of late and I think that the consumer has gone into hiding in the U.S. We will get a handle on inflation and this will of course be studied in great detail by the FED.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9762\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-30072017-1024x856.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"856\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9774\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9775\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9773\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9776\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9777\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9778\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9779\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that I believe differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 60% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,810 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,215 net pips\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week the PREMIUM SERVICE added +212 net pips.\r\n\r\nThis market is weird, strange, puzzling and probably just plain old fu**ed up.\r\n\r\nMoves and reactions to news and sometimes economic data is frankly bizarre. Just when you think you have a handle on how things are going to play out, the reaction is either nonsensical or so over extended it makes the move look stupid and out of control.\r\n\r\nTo operate with a trading discipline in this type of environment is a challenge. The human response is to jump onboard, you are scared shi*less in case you miss the move because it looks huge.\r\n\r\nMoves after the FOMC last week were just crazy. I know that inter-market correlations are off and that makes me very uneasy taking trades to suggest to paying subscribers to follow. If ever there was a time to display a TRADING DISCIPLINE this is it.\r\n\r\nDespite all the above, we added pips last week. I had a few loss-making trades, which was annoying and very frustrating especially as they were USD/CAD and EUR/USD. I could have and I should have most definitely prevented the loss from the EUR/USD; the USD/CAD was news related, that was part of the norm.\r\n\r\nI still believe that we are in the middle of a structural shift within the FX market. This will be led by the EUR/USD. Following the FOMC the USD beating was way, way overdone and the retracement moves in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD were expected to a large extent. I do however see these moves higher re-establishing themselves after this month’s U.S. Non-Farm Payroll data release this Friday.\r\n\r\nI am cautious. This must be the way in my opinion; I need to see confirmations and correlations to confirm moves. The S&amp;P, VIX, AUD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/SEK, Oil, Gold, Copper and the ZB’s are to some extent doing their own thing. Relationships with the USD are not tight. EUR/USD and USD/CHF, EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF are not in sync. In addition, one must remember that the thin markets do not help matters either. Patience is required.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n</u>This is a new addition to this section. The SHORT or LONG indicators in the excel sheet are based on buying and selling pressure algorithms averaged for the time periods. I use these from time to time for confirmation of a trade. In addition, when I see the Short, Medium and Long term periods in alignment this gives me more confidence vis-à-vis a trades direction and who is in control of the currency pair, the bears or the bulls.\r\n<u>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/SENTIMENT-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9765\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/SENTIMENT-30072017-683x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"683\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u><u>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\nPrior to the “Debelle” comments from a couple of weeks ago this pair looked very constructive to the long side. It was whacked lower on the comments. Longer-term fair value for this pair is much higher.\r\n\r\nBasically, it is a slow mover but hopefully before I die it will back into the 1.20’s again!\r\n\r\nI am going to persevere with this pair… I have for almost two years now!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD: (Live)\r\nThe more I read and see on TV regarding the UK government the more it looks like a shambolic collection of misfits that lack leadership, unity and God forbid direction on practically every subject. In certain aspects, it makes TRUMP look positively on the ball (I cannot believe I wrote that).\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT negotiations look amateurish and not thought out. The risk of a “No Deal” as highlighted last week by one of the UK negotiator’s Nick Fox happening is real. I cannot see how this benefits the UK. In fact, this does NOT benefit the EU either.\r\n\r\nI have documented this in the past but my reasons for being contrarian with this pair compared to most market analysts and commentators is because of: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT UNCERTAINTY.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAPITAL OUTFLOWS and FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS are now on the move out of the city. This will add more pressure.</li>\r\n 	<li>THERESA MAY’S tenuous position as leader and Prime Minister.</li>\r\n 	<li>KEY ECONOMIC DATA now turning sour.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOE committed to dovish approach for at least 2017.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis could be a challenging trade initially, I believe that 1.2775 is the pivot to pass to give me greater confidence. In the interim, the USD (TRUMP ISSUES) will from time to time effect the cable moves.\r\n\r\nI am using 1.3250 as my line in the sand to exit if required. Therefore, from a RISK / REWARD perspective this trade position does appeal.\r\n\r\nI moved my stop wider last week to cover off volatility surrounding the FOMC. Good job that I did. Since that day cable has come back and gone away again. I am holding a small position so in $$$ it does not hurt. However, if the pair does not start moving lower again, there is little point holding on to it. For me, at the moment operating in USD it costs nothing to hold overnight.\r\n\r\nCHF PAIRS: (Live and Limit Orders)\r\nI am looking to add several CHF pairs to establish a “Short” CHF position. Over the coming weeks, I hope to have a few pairs included in this section. For now, just the EUR/CHF is active.\r\n\r\nI have USD/CHF, NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF limit orders placed.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD:\r\nAt some stage I am going to have to take the plunge and enter long EUR/USD and hold. At some stage this year the ECB is going to taper and normalize. I want to be in position sooner rather than later for this.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9764\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-30072017-871x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"871\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-300072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9763\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-300072017-845x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"845\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong>THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nIT’S A BIG WEEK FOR CABLE\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nIt’s super Thursday time once again.\r\n\r\nThis Thursday we get the following GBP data and a speech by Mark “Flip-flopper” Carney, governor of the Bank of England: -\r\n\r\nBOE Inflation Report\r\nMPC Official Bank Rate Votes\r\nMonetary Policy Summary\r\nOfficial Bank Rate\r\nAnd\r\nBOE Governor Carney Speaks\r\n\r\nIt\'s a week which could see the GBP/USD break higher towards 1.3300/1.3400 or shoot lower once again towards 1.2800.\r\n\r\nAs always, it’s all about the interpretation of statistics, and then, a consideration of the future uncertainties that surround the potential movements of cable. Forward guidance is not that good from the BOE under Mark Carney so if he starts talking in guidance terms, I for one will not feel the 100% comfortable in the BOE findings and predictions. Then again, Mark Carney is never really held accountable to this commentary, which, changes direction as many times as a wet and windy day in Galway, Ireland.\r\n\r\nThese days, whilst ultra-important vis-à-vis cable especially with BREXIT in the news practically every day, Carney’s Super Thursdays still lack the gusto of a Mario Draghi (ECB) squirming behind the table talking uncomfortably about a subject he does not believe in, or Janet Yellen (FED) trying to convince us that she is hawkish, whilst all the time she sounds and puts forward her hawkish position in a dove-like manner.\r\n\r\nPoor Mark Carney, what does he have in his armory? Bugger all really, he gave up on forward guidance, or was it I that just gave up reading the garbage that was circulated? He has now taken the title “flip-flopper” as he never appears to hold the same strategy from week to week.\r\n\r\nI suppose it is the “flip-flopping” that makes these events a kind of “What the feck is he going to say this time”, or, “Which way is the wind blowing today in Threadneedle Street?” At the end of the day, despite the sideshow, which I love by the way, there is a huge importance to attach to the data that is released and in my opinion Carneys words can usually be binned a few hours later.\r\n\r\nAt the last Super Thursday practically all the attention was focused on the fact that the vote which was predicted come in at 7-1, came in at 5-3. As a result, the cable strengthened and headed higher. The commentaries were along the lines of “the UK is about to raise rates”.\r\n\r\nIn an attempt to calm and stabilize the markets Carney spoke and said that rates will be low for the foreseeable future. He added, “Now is not the time to raise interest rates”. He quoted uncertainties surrounding BREXIT etc.\r\n\r\nOne week later as a guest at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, Carney spoke again and said that the UK will probably have to look to raise rates this year.\r\n\r\nSo…\r\n\r\nWith this flip-flopper behind the podium what the feck is he going to say this week?\r\n\r\nFor my own needs and perspective, I tabulate some key data for every several economies to keep my macro FUNDAMENTAL thinking in check. I do not go into huge detail just the key data that I like.\r\n\r\nMy UK table is below: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/UK-ECON-FUNDAMENTALS-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9766\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/UK-ECON-FUNDAMENTALS-30072017-776x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"776\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nRegular followers of this blog will know that FUNDAMENTALLY I believe that the consumer drives an economy. It is the man and woman on the street that keeps the wheels moving.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts: -\r\n\r\nInflation fell surprisingly last time around (But still held above the 2% BOE target).\r\nConsumer confidence fell again.\r\nMortgage applications marginally lower.\r\n\r\nThe Purchases Index dropped across the board (Manufacturing, Services and Construction).\r\n\r\nIn addition, wages are not keeping pace with inflation. Wage growth is sluggish. This is causing household pain; household debt is rising and this is a concern.\r\n\r\nMy thought process is that the BOE will NOT touch interest rates. Data is very mixed but the core data that effects the man and woman on the street should an interest rate rise be put through now, would kill off any chance of increased domestic spending. Tourists can buy goods in stores but they do not do home renovations etc.\r\n\r\nWhen the BREXIT vote was counted Carney stated that he would keep ample liquidity in the marketplace. I know a huge volume of water has flowed under that bridge since that announcement, but the same perils remain regarding the BREXIT uncertainties. I still believe that the market is 100% complacent over BREXIT.\r\n\r\nSo; what are the possibilities and how do I see it playing out: -\r\n\r\nThis is a little difficult as we receive the July Services, Construction and Manufacturing PMi data next week ahead of the super Thursday’s decision.\r\n\r\nMost people will be focused on the MPC vote. If it remains 5-3: There is a chance that the commentary will include words like “GRADUAL”. Cable will strengthen like crazy towards possibly 1.3400 as the markets will read a 2017 rate move into their plans.\r\n\r\nIf the vote moves back to 6-2 or even square one at 7-1 and leave in “EXTENDED PERIOD” the cable will weaken dramatically back towards 1.2800.\r\n\r\nI see no rate hike and commentary remaining accommodative based upon recent data being mixed. I just cannot see the RISK of raising rates or the slightest mention of raising rates. If cable is allowed to appreciate and then BREXIT negotiations fall apart, the GBP/USD will be at 1.2000 in a heartbeat.\r\n\r\nThere are so many other uncertainties in the UK. I know that the BOE should not go political, but they must be aware of the effects of another general election this autumn / fall given the tenuous position of power Theresa May has as UK Prime Minister. In addition, the BREXIT negotiations are slow, tedious and not providing any comfort to the markets at the moment. The movement of capital inflows out of the city of London is gathering pace as more and more financial institutions are announcing where they are going to set up shop in 18 months’ time when they exit the UK.\r\n\r\nIt is a tough decision.\r\n\r\nTo raise rates would kill off many households in the UK and create a problem probably not worth having as long as inflation remains under say 3.5%.  As long as inflation is level or even above 2% it\'s a problem worth having than trying to fix. To address it will open up a can of worms best kept under lock and key. In this instance, all the accountants and so-called financial brains should be given gardening leave.\r\n\r\nAs long as Mark Carney delivers a strong message in whatever direction, he must be believable and herein lies a FUNDAMENTAL problem. He is a “flip-flopper”.\r\n\r\nI am still in the camp of cable 1.2000 and EUR/GBP close to parity. I will be glued to my desk this Thursday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #143 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 30th July 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'IT’S A BIG WEEK FOR CABLE', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'big-week-cable', '', '', '2017-07-29 09:50:30', '2017-07-29 14:50:30', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=9780', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
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(9781, 1, '2017-07-29 09:50:30', '2017-07-29 14:50:30', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was all about the FOMC statement.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective I added pips to the annual PREMIUM SERVICE tally and overall it was a good trading week.  Just over +1,800 net pips this month so far with one trading day left, I am not expecting a total of over 2,000 pips for the month but you just never know!\r\n\r\nMy thought process starting this week is unfortunately that we will probably revert to the usual summer range trading environment. The FOMC was the last big new event in my opinion pre-The Jackson Hole Symposium. Having just written that I do realise that this week has some major and important news events listed on the economic calendar.\r\n\r\nNext week is the last “DRIVE THRU” blog for four weeks. I will be on my summer break. I will still be trading but not with the same intensity. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers will still know that I am around, I will not disappear completely off the grid.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: FOMC Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nThis item dominated the news last week for several reasons.\r\n\r\nFirstly, it was the first communication since Janet Yellen announced in her senate testimony a couple of weeks ago that the FED would be looking to taper its balance sheet by selling off the gazillions of bonds it purchased over the last number of years and that its policy of interest rate normalization would be on hold for the time being due to several economic factors.\r\n\r\nSecondly, as we all know Janet Yellen is a Dove. Even when she reads a Hawkish statement it sounds dovish! Would she resume normal service?\r\n\r\nThirdly, what data/ timelines would the markets receive on the tapering schedule?\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, I thought she was dovish. Although several well-respected analysts have since said it was NOT that much of a dovish statement.\r\n\r\nThe bond market did not like it and after 15-20 minutes it moved suddenly and the EUR/USD rallied through 1.1700 which, prior to the bond move had held well. After the bond move the EUR/USD was off to the races and it took the FX market with it.\r\n\r\nWhat did Janet Yellen say?\r\n\r\nIn all honesty, she said nothing new; the news about tapering was that it would start “relatively soon”. She acknowledged that inflation was an issue and that it was below the FED 2% objective. The chance of a September rate hike looks like a “no chance” and this is probably what put the winds into the sails of the bond prices.\r\n\r\nWriting generally…\r\n\r\nIt’s all been so well documented what can I add. We really do analyze every word of the prepared Central Bank statements to death.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day, how many times a year do the Central Bank’s move their goal posts on GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Rates just to name three items?\r\n\r\nThe goal posts move which then creates a shift in emphasis and therefore what was previously in place as a target is no longer there anymore and then the cycle starts again.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt economic fundamentals can change requiring adjustments, but sometimes moving the numbers is a ploy to hide failings and relieve scrutiny of a management approach or style in my opinion.\r\n\r\nI am not pointing the finger at any one Central Bank President or Governor, but they all know how to play the game and use the data in their favour.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>CAD: GDP (Beat 0.6% versus 0.2%)\r\n\r\nAll eyes will now be on Stephen Poloz and the BOC given the fact economic data of late has been more bullish the CAD than bearish and all eyes will be on the BOC to see if they will continue with their policy of raising interest rates.\r\n\r\nI think I mentioned this last week or maybe the week before, the move lower in the USD/CAD is now about $0.12 cents which in the good old days was equivalent to about a 1% rate cut all in. Poloz has gotten this move lower of over 1,200 pips for just some jawboning and 0.25%... not too bad.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9761\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-30072017-1024x1019.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1019\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Obviously, the pick of the week is US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, however, before that we have a plethora of data that should provide some volatility.\r\n\r\nI am looking forward to this week’s news events.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>AUD: A big week for AUD data. The RBA issues its latest interest rate statement. We will see the latest Trade Balance numbers and an updated RBA Policy Statement will be released as well as at the latest Retail Sales numbers.\r\n\r\nOver the past couple of weeks the RBA has gone to great lengths to let the markets know they are quite happy with a neutral interest rate policy and that just because other Central Banks are moving to a policy of normalization it does NOT mean that the RBA will follow suit.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am not so sure that the RBA will be happy with the AUD/USD exchange rate pushing 0.8000. There may be some jawboning this week to try to keep the lid on the currency racing away. I am not sure with jawboning if this would have any effect at all, if that is a course of action that takes place. Let’s see what happens.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: This is a very, very big week for the UK. PMi data of late has been poor. We have the BOE inflation report and another MPC interest rate vote. Last month, the vote to keep rates unchanged was 5-3, the market was expecting 7-1. This will be interesting to see if the voting members that voted to hike last month have changed their opinions in view of the poor economic data that we have seen lately. Plus, we have a Carney speech.\r\n\r\nOne can hardly contain one’s excitement!</li>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs data in New Zealand is always a market mover. Recent commentary from the RBNZ has basically been along the lines of “We couldn’t give a crap about the NZD/USD at 0.7400, there’s feck all we can do about it anyway”. Enough said, however, … let’s get the “algo’s” to push it to 0.8000 and see what the RBNZ says then!\r\n\r\nAlgo’s take note!</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs data. If the CAD beats expectations, the rumour of more rate increases this year will hit fever pitch and the call from a trader buddy of mine saying 1.1500 is possible… could be on.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Jobs and ISM data are the pick. I am not so sure that the NFP data this week is going to be that important vis-a-vis the FED’s interest rate normalization policy. It will without doubt create “chaos and disorder” on the day but I am not convinced of any greater importance than just seeing what the stats are. The ISM data will be read carefully.\r\n\r\nEconomic data has been very mixed of late and I think that the consumer has gone into hiding in the U.S. We will get a handle on inflation and this will of course be studied in great detail by the FED.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9762\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-30072017-1024x856.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"856\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9774\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9775\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9773\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9776\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9777\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9778\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9779\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that I believe differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 60% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,810 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,215 net pips\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week the PREMIUM SERVICE added +212 net pips.\r\n\r\nThis market is weird, strange, puzzling and probably just plain old fu**ed up.\r\n\r\nMoves and reactions to news and sometimes economic data is frankly bizarre. Just when you think you have a handle on how things are going to play out, the reaction is either nonsensical or so over extended it makes the move look stupid and out of control.\r\n\r\nTo operate with a trading discipline in this type of environment is a challenge. The human response is to jump onboard, you are scared shi*less in case you miss the move because it looks huge.\r\n\r\nMoves after the FOMC last week were just crazy. I know that inter-market correlations are off and that makes me very uneasy taking trades to suggest to paying subscribers to follow. If ever there was a time to display a TRADING DISCIPLINE this is it.\r\n\r\nDespite all the above, we added pips last week. I had a few loss-making trades, which was annoying and very frustrating especially as they were USD/CAD and EUR/USD. I could have and I should have most definitely prevented the loss from the EUR/USD; the USD/CAD was news related, that was part of the norm.\r\n\r\nI still believe that we are in the middle of a structural shift within the FX market. This will be led by the EUR/USD. Following the FOMC the USD beating was way, way overdone and the retracement moves in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD were expected to a large extent. I do however see these moves higher re-establishing themselves after this month’s U.S. Non-Farm Payroll data release this Friday.\r\n\r\nI am cautious. This must be the way in my opinion; I need to see confirmations and correlations to confirm moves. The S&amp;P, VIX, AUD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/SEK, Oil, Gold, Copper and the ZB’s are to some extent doing their own thing. Relationships with the USD are not tight. EUR/USD and USD/CHF, EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF are not in sync. In addition, one must remember that the thin markets do not help matters either. Patience is required.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n</u>This is a new addition to this section. The SHORT or LONG indicators in the excel sheet are based on buying and selling pressure algorithms averaged for the time periods. I use these from time to time for confirmation of a trade. In addition, when I see the Short, Medium and Long term periods in alignment this gives me more confidence vis-à-vis a trades direction and who is in control of the currency pair, the bears or the bulls.\r\n<u>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/SENTIMENT-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9765\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/SENTIMENT-30072017-683x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"683\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u><u>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\nPrior to the “Debelle” comments from a couple of weeks ago this pair looked very constructive to the long side. It was whacked lower on the comments. Longer-term fair value for this pair is much higher.\r\n\r\nBasically, it is a slow mover but hopefully before I die it will back into the 1.20’s again!\r\n\r\nI am going to persevere with this pair… I have for almost two years now!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD: (Live)\r\nThe more I read and see on TV regarding the UK government the more it looks like a shambolic collection of misfits that lack leadership, unity and God forbid direction on practically every subject. In certain aspects, it makes TRUMP look positively on the ball (I cannot believe I wrote that).\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT negotiations look amateurish and not thought out. The risk of a “No Deal” as highlighted last week by one of the UK negotiator’s Nick Fox happening is real. I cannot see how this benefits the UK. In fact, this does NOT benefit the EU either.\r\n\r\nI have documented this in the past but my reasons for being contrarian with this pair compared to most market analysts and commentators is because of: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT UNCERTAINTY.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAPITAL OUTFLOWS and FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS are now on the move out of the city. This will add more pressure.</li>\r\n 	<li>THERESA MAY’S tenuous position as leader and Prime Minister.</li>\r\n 	<li>KEY ECONOMIC DATA now turning sour.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOE committed to dovish approach for at least 2017.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis could be a challenging trade initially, I believe that 1.2775 is the pivot to pass to give me greater confidence. In the interim, the USD (TRUMP ISSUES) will from time to time effect the cable moves.\r\n\r\nI am using 1.3250 as my line in the sand to exit if required. Therefore, from a RISK / REWARD perspective this trade position does appeal.\r\n\r\nI moved my stop wider last week to cover off volatility surrounding the FOMC. Good job that I did. Since that day cable has come back and gone away again. I am holding a small position so in $$$ it does not hurt. However, if the pair does not start moving lower again, there is little point holding on to it. For me, at the moment operating in USD it costs nothing to hold overnight.\r\n\r\nCHF PAIRS: (Live and Limit Orders)\r\nI am looking to add several CHF pairs to establish a “Short” CHF position. Over the coming weeks, I hope to have a few pairs included in this section. For now, just the EUR/CHF is active.\r\n\r\nI have USD/CHF, NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF limit orders placed.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD:\r\nAt some stage I am going to have to take the plunge and enter long EUR/USD and hold. At some stage this year the ECB is going to taper and normalize. I want to be in position sooner rather than later for this.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9764\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-30072017-871x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"871\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-300072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9763\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-300072017-845x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"845\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong>THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nIT’S A BIG WEEK FOR CABLE\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nIt’s super Thursday time once again.\r\n\r\nThis Thursday we get the following GBP data and a speech by Mark “Flip-flopper” Carney, governor of the Bank of England: -\r\n\r\nBOE Inflation Report\r\nMPC Official Bank Rate Votes\r\nMonetary Policy Summary\r\nOfficial Bank Rate\r\nAnd\r\nBOE Governor Carney Speaks\r\n\r\nIt\'s a week which could see the GBP/USD break higher towards 1.3300/1.3400 or shoot lower once again towards 1.2800.\r\n\r\nAs always, it’s all about the interpretation of statistics, and then, a consideration of the future uncertainties that surround the potential movements of cable. Forward guidance is not that good from the BOE under Mark Carney so if he starts talking in guidance terms, I for one will not feel the 100% comfortable in the BOE findings and predictions. Then again, Mark Carney is never really held accountable to this commentary, which, changes direction as many times as a wet and windy day in Galway, Ireland.\r\n\r\nThese days, whilst ultra-important vis-à-vis cable especially with BREXIT in the news practically every day, Carney’s Super Thursdays still lack the gusto of a Mario Draghi (ECB) squirming behind the table talking uncomfortably about a subject he does not believe in, or Janet Yellen (FED) trying to convince us that she is hawkish, whilst all the time she sounds and puts forward her hawkish position in a dove-like manner.\r\n\r\nPoor Mark Carney, what does he have in his armory? Bugger all really, he gave up on forward guidance, or was it I that just gave up reading the garbage that was circulated? He has now taken the title “flip-flopper” as he never appears to hold the same strategy from week to week.\r\n\r\nI suppose it is the “flip-flopping” that makes these events a kind of “What the feck is he going to say this time”, or, “Which way is the wind blowing today in Threadneedle Street?” At the end of the day, despite the sideshow, which I love by the way, there is a huge importance to attach to the data that is released and in my opinion Carneys words can usually be binned a few hours later.\r\n\r\nAt the last Super Thursday practically all the attention was focused on the fact that the vote which was predicted come in at 7-1, came in at 5-3. As a result, the cable strengthened and headed higher. The commentaries were along the lines of “the UK is about to raise rates”.\r\n\r\nIn an attempt to calm and stabilize the markets Carney spoke and said that rates will be low for the foreseeable future. He added, “Now is not the time to raise interest rates”. He quoted uncertainties surrounding BREXIT etc.\r\n\r\nOne week later as a guest at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, Carney spoke again and said that the UK will probably have to look to raise rates this year.\r\n\r\nSo…\r\n\r\nWith this flip-flopper behind the podium what the feck is he going to say this week?\r\n\r\nFor my own needs and perspective, I tabulate some key data for every several economies to keep my macro FUNDAMENTAL thinking in check. I do not go into huge detail just the key data that I like.\r\n\r\nMy UK table is below: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/UK-ECON-FUNDAMENTALS-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9766\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/UK-ECON-FUNDAMENTALS-30072017-776x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"776\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nRegular followers of this blog will know that FUNDAMENTALLY I believe that the consumer drives an economy. It is the man and woman on the street that keeps the wheels moving.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts: -\r\n\r\nInflation fell surprisingly last time around (But still held above the 2% BOE target).\r\nConsumer confidence fell again.\r\nMortgage applications marginally lower.\r\n\r\nThe Purchases Index dropped across the board (Manufacturing, Services and Construction).\r\n\r\nIn addition, wages are not keeping pace with inflation. Wage growth is sluggish. This is causing household pain; household debt is rising and this is a concern.\r\n\r\nMy thought process is that the BOE will NOT touch interest rates. Data is very mixed but the core data that effects the man and woman on the street should an interest rate rise be put through now, would kill off any chance of increased domestic spending. Tourists can buy goods in stores but they do not do home renovations etc.\r\n\r\nWhen the BREXIT vote was counted Carney stated that he would keep ample liquidity in the marketplace. I know a huge volume of water has flowed under that bridge since that announcement, but the same perils remain regarding the BREXIT uncertainties. I still believe that the market is 100% complacent over BREXIT.\r\n\r\nSo; what are the possibilities and how do I see it playing out: -\r\n\r\nThis is a little difficult as we receive the July Services, Construction and Manufacturing PMi data next week ahead of the super Thursday’s decision.\r\n\r\nMost people will be focused on the MPC vote. If it remains 5-3: There is a chance that the commentary will include words like “GRADUAL”. Cable will strengthen like crazy towards possibly 1.3400 as the markets will read a 2017 rate move into their plans.\r\n\r\nIf the vote moves back to 6-2 or even square one at 7-1 and leave in “EXTENDED PERIOD” the cable will weaken dramatically back towards 1.2800.\r\n\r\nI see no rate hike and commentary remaining accommodative based upon recent data being mixed. I just cannot see the RISK of raising rates or the slightest mention of raising rates. If cable is allowed to appreciate and then BREXIT negotiations fall apart, the GBP/USD will be at 1.2000 in a heartbeat.\r\n\r\nThere are so many other uncertainties in the UK. I know that the BOE should not go political, but they must be aware of the effects of another general election this autumn / fall given the tenuous position of power Theresa May has as UK Prime Minister. In addition, the BREXIT negotiations are slow, tedious and not providing any comfort to the markets at the moment. The movement of capital inflows out of the city of London is gathering pace as more and more financial institutions are announcing where they are going to set up shop in 18 months’ time when they exit the UK.\r\n\r\nIt is a tough decision.\r\n\r\nTo raise rates would kill off many households in the UK and create a problem probably not worth having as long as inflation remains under say 3.5%.  As long as inflation is level or even above 2% it\'s a problem worth having than trying to fix. To address it will open up a can of worms best kept under lock and key. In this instance, all the accountants and so-called financial brains should be given gardening leave.\r\n\r\nAs long as Mark Carney delivers a strong message in whatever direction, he must be believable and herein lies a FUNDAMENTAL problem. He is a “flip-flopper”.\r\n\r\nI am still in the camp of cable 1.2000 and EUR/GBP close to parity. I will be glued to my desk this Thursday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #143 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 30th July 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'IT’S A BIG WEEK FOR CABLE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9780-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-29 09:50:30', '2017-07-29 14:50:30', '', 9780, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9780-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(9788, 1, '2017-07-29 11:05:06', '2017-07-29 16:05:06', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was all about the FOMC statement.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective I added pips to the annual PREMIUM SERVICE tally and overall it was a good trading week.  Just over +1,800 net pips this month so far with one trading day left, I am not expecting a total of over 2,000 pips for the month but you just never know!\r\n\r\nMy thought process starting this week is unfortunately that we will probably revert to the usual summer range trading environment. The FOMC was the last big new event in my opinion pre-The Jackson Hole Symposium. Having just written that I do realise that this week has some major and important news events listed on the economic calendar.\r\n\r\nNext week is the last “DRIVE THRU” blog for four weeks. I will be on my summer break. I will still be trading but not with the same intensity. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers will still know that I am around, I will not disappear completely off the grid.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: FOMC Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nThis item dominated the news last week for several reasons.\r\n\r\nFirstly, it was the first communication since Janet Yellen announced in her senate testimony a couple of weeks ago that the FED would be looking to taper its balance sheet by selling off the gazillions of bonds it purchased over the last number of years and that its policy of interest rate normalization would be on hold for the time being due to several economic factors.\r\n\r\nSecondly, as we all know Janet Yellen is a Dove. Even when she reads a Hawkish statement it sounds dovish! Would she resume normal service?\r\n\r\nThirdly, what data/ timelines would the markets receive on the tapering schedule?\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, I thought she was dovish. Although several well-respected analysts have since said it was NOT that much of a dovish statement.\r\n\r\nThe bond market did not like it and after 15-20 minutes it moved suddenly and the EUR/USD rallied through 1.1700 which, prior to the bond move had held well. After the bond move the EUR/USD was off to the races and it took the FX market with it.\r\n\r\nWhat did Janet Yellen say?\r\n\r\nIn all honesty, she said nothing new; the news about tapering was that it would start “relatively soon”. She acknowledged that inflation was an issue and that it was below the FED 2% objective. The chance of a September rate hike looks like a “no chance” and this is probably what put the winds into the sails of the bond prices.\r\n\r\nWriting generally…\r\n\r\nIt’s all been so well documented what can I add. We really do analyze every word of the prepared Central Bank statements to death.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day, how many times a year do the Central Bank’s move their goal posts on GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Rates just to name three items?\r\n\r\nThe goal posts move which then creates a shift in emphasis and therefore what was previously in place as a target is no longer there anymore and then the cycle starts again.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt economic fundamentals can change requiring adjustments, but sometimes moving the numbers is a ploy to hide failings and relieve scrutiny of a management approach or style in my opinion.\r\n\r\nI am not pointing the finger at any one Central Bank President or Governor, but they all know how to play the game and use the data in their favour.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>CAD: GDP (Beat 0.6% versus 0.2%)\r\n\r\nAll eyes will now be on Stephen Poloz and the BOC given the fact economic data of late has been more bullish the CAD than bearish and all eyes will be on the BOC to see if they will continue with their policy of raising interest rates.\r\n\r\nI think I mentioned this last week or maybe the week before, the move lower in the USD/CAD is now about $0.12 cents which in the good old days was equivalent to about a 1% rate cut all in. Poloz has gotten this move lower of over 1,200 pips for just some jawboning and 0.25%... not too bad.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9761\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-30072017-1024x1019.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1019\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Obviously, the pick of the week is US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, however, before that we have a plethora of data that should provide some volatility.\r\n\r\nI am looking forward to this week’s news events.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>AUD: A big week for AUD data. The RBA issues its latest interest rate statement. We will see the latest Trade Balance numbers and an updated RBA Policy Statement will be released as well as at the latest Retail Sales numbers.\r\n\r\nOver the past couple of weeks the RBA has gone to great lengths to let the markets know they are quite happy with a neutral interest rate policy and that just because other Central Banks are moving to a policy of normalization it does NOT mean that the RBA will follow suit.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am not so sure that the RBA will be happy with the AUD/USD exchange rate pushing 0.8000. There may be some jawboning this week to try to keep the lid on the currency racing away. I am not sure with jawboning if this would have any effect at all, if that is a course of action that takes place. Let’s see what happens.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: This is a very, very big week for the UK. PMi data of late has been poor. We have the BOE inflation report and another MPC interest rate vote. Last month, the vote to keep rates unchanged was 5-3, the market was expecting 7-1. This will be interesting to see if the voting members that voted to hike last month have changed their opinions in view of the poor economic data that we have seen lately. Plus, we have a Carney speech.\r\n\r\nOne can hardly contain one’s excitement!</li>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs data in New Zealand is always a market mover. Recent commentary from the RBNZ has basically been along the lines of “We couldn’t give a crap about the NZD/USD at 0.7400, there’s feck all we can do about it anyway”. Enough said, however, … let’s get the “algo’s” to push it to 0.8000 and see what the RBNZ says then!\r\n\r\nAlgo’s take note!</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs data. If the CAD beats expectations, the rumour of more rate increases this year will hit fever pitch and the call from a trader buddy of mine saying 1.1500 is possible… could be on.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Jobs and ISM data are the pick. I am not so sure that the NFP data this week is going to be that important vis-a-vis the FED’s interest rate normalization policy. It will without doubt create “chaos and disorder” on the day but I am not convinced of any greater importance than just seeing what the stats are. The ISM data will be read carefully.\r\n\r\nEconomic data has been very mixed of late and I think that the consumer has gone into hiding in the U.S. We will get a handle on inflation and this will of course be studied in great detail by the FED.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9762\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-30072017-1024x856.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"856\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9774\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9775\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9773\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9776\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9777\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9778\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9779\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that I believe differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 60% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,810 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,215 net pips\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n</u>\r\n<u>4.4.3: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> IT’S A BIG WEEK FOR CABLE\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nIt’s super Thursday time once again.\r\n\r\nThis Thursday we get the following GBP data and a speech by Mark “Flip-flopper” Carney, governor of the Bank of England: -\r\n\r\nBOE Inflation Report\r\nMPC Official Bank Rate Votes\r\nMonetary Policy Summary\r\nOfficial Bank Rate\r\nAnd\r\nBOE Governor Carney Speaks\r\n\r\nIt\'s a week which could see the GBP/USD break higher towards 1.3300/1.3400 or shoot lower once again towards 1.2800.\r\n\r\nAs always, it’s all about the interpretation of statistics, and then, a consideration of the future uncertainties that surround the potential movements of cable. Forward guidance is not that good from the BOE under Mark Carney so if he starts talking in guidance terms, I for one will not feel the 100% comfortable in the BOE findings and predictions. Then again, Mark Carney is never really held accountable to this commentary, which, changes direction as many times as a wet and windy day in Galway, Ireland.\r\n\r\nThese days, whilst ultra-important vis-à-vis cable especially with BREXIT in the news practically every day, Carney’s Super Thursdays still lack the gusto of a Mario Draghi (ECB) squirming behind the table talking uncomfortably about a subject he does not believe in, or Janet Yellen (FED) trying to convince us that she is hawkish, whilst all the time she sounds and puts forward her hawkish position in a dove-like manner.\r\n\r\nPoor Mark Carney, what does he have in his armory? Bugger all really, he gave up on forward guidance, or was it I that just gave up reading the garbage that was circulated? He has now taken the title “flip-flopper” as he never appears to hold the same strategy from week to week.\r\n\r\nI suppose it is the “flip-flopping” that makes these events a kind of “What the feck is he going to say this time”, or, “Which way is the wind blowing today in Threadneedle Street?” At the end of the day, despite the sideshow, which I love by the way, there is a huge importance to attach to the data that is released and in my opinion Carneys words can usually be binned a few hours later.\r\n\r\nAt the last Super Thursday practically all the attention was focused on the fact that the vote which was predicted come in at 7-1, came in at 5-3. As a result, the cable strengthened and headed higher. The commentaries were along the lines of “the UK is about to raise rates”.\r\n\r\nIn an attempt to calm and stabilize the markets Carney spoke and said that rates will be low for the foreseeable future. He added, “Now is not the time to raise interest rates”. He quoted uncertainties surrounding BREXIT etc.\r\n\r\nOne week later as a guest at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, Carney spoke again and said that the UK will probably have to look to raise rates this year.\r\n\r\nSo…\r\n\r\nWith this flip-flopper behind the podium what the feck is he going to say this week?\r\n\r\nFor my own needs and perspective, I tabulate some key data for every several economies to keep my macro FUNDAMENTAL thinking in check. I do not go into huge detail just the key data that I like.\r\n\r\nMy UK table is below: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/UK-ECON-FUNDAMENTALS-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9766\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/UK-ECON-FUNDAMENTALS-30072017-776x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"776\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nRegular followers of this blog will know that FUNDAMENTALLY I believe that the consumer drives an economy. It is the man and woman on the street that keeps the wheels moving.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts: -\r\n\r\nInflation fell surprisingly last time around (But still held above the 2% BOE target).\r\nConsumer confidence fell again.\r\nMortgage applications marginally lower.\r\n\r\nThe Purchases Index dropped across the board (Manufacturing, Services and Construction).\r\n\r\nIn addition, wages are not keeping pace with inflation. Wage growth is sluggish. This is causing household pain; household debt is rising and this is a concern.\r\n\r\nMy thought process is that the BOE will NOT touch interest rates. Data is very mixed but the core data that effects the man and woman on the street should an interest rate rise be put through now, would kill off any chance of increased domestic spending. Tourists can buy goods in stores but they do not do home renovations etc.\r\n\r\nWhen the BREXIT vote was counted Carney stated that he would keep ample liquidity in the marketplace. I know a huge volume of water has flowed under that bridge since that announcement, but the same perils remain regarding the BREXIT uncertainties. I still believe that the market is 100% complacent over BREXIT.\r\n\r\nSo; what are the possibilities and how do I see it playing out: -\r\n\r\nThis is a little difficult as we receive the July Services, Construction and Manufacturing PMi data next week ahead of the super Thursday’s decision.\r\n\r\nMost people will be focused on the MPC vote. If it remains 5-3: There is a chance that the commentary will include words like “GRADUAL”. Cable will strengthen like crazy towards possibly 1.3400 as the markets will read a 2017 rate move into their plans.\r\n\r\nIf the vote moves back to 6-2 or even square one at 7-1 and leave in “EXTENDED PERIOD” the cable will weaken dramatically back towards 1.2800.\r\n\r\nI see no rate hike and commentary remaining accommodative based upon recent data being mixed. I just cannot see the RISK of raising rates or the slightest mention of raising rates. If cable is allowed to appreciate and then BREXIT negotiations fall apart, the GBP/USD will be at 1.2000 in a heartbeat.\r\n\r\nThere are so many other uncertainties in the UK. I know that the BOE should not go political, but they must be aware of the effects of another general election this autumn / fall given the tenuous position of power Theresa May has as UK Prime Minister. In addition, the BREXIT negotiations are slow, tedious and not providing any comfort to the markets at the moment. The movement of capital inflows out of the city of London is gathering pace as more and more financial institutions are announcing where they are going to set up shop in 18 months’ time when they exit the UK.\r\n\r\nIt is a tough decision.\r\n\r\nTo raise rates would kill off many households in the UK and create a problem probably not worth having as long as inflation remains under say 3.5%.  As long as inflation is level or even above 2% it\'s a problem worth having than trying to fix. To address it will open up a can of worms best kept under lock and key. In this instance, all the accountants and so-called financial brains should be given gardening leave.\r\n\r\nAs long as Mark Carney delivers a strong message in whatever direction, he must be believable and herein lies a FUNDAMENTAL problem. He is a “flip-flopper”.\r\n\r\nI am still in the camp of cable 1.2000 and EUR/GBP close to parity. I will be glued to my desk this Thursday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #247 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 30th July 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'IT’S A BIG WEEK FOR CABLE', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'big-week-cable', '', '', '2017-07-29 11:05:06', '2017-07-29 16:05:06', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=9788', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(9789, 1, '2017-07-29 11:05:06', '2017-07-29 16:05:06', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was all about the FOMC statement.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective I added pips to the annual PREMIUM SERVICE tally and overall it was a good trading week.  Just over +1,800 net pips this month so far with one trading day left, I am not expecting a total of over 2,000 pips for the month but you just never know!\r\n\r\nMy thought process starting this week is unfortunately that we will probably revert to the usual summer range trading environment. The FOMC was the last big new event in my opinion pre-The Jackson Hole Symposium. Having just written that I do realise that this week has some major and important news events listed on the economic calendar.\r\n\r\nNext week is the last “DRIVE THRU” blog for four weeks. I will be on my summer break. I will still be trading but not with the same intensity. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers will still know that I am around, I will not disappear completely off the grid.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: FOMC Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nThis item dominated the news last week for several reasons.\r\n\r\nFirstly, it was the first communication since Janet Yellen announced in her senate testimony a couple of weeks ago that the FED would be looking to taper its balance sheet by selling off the gazillions of bonds it purchased over the last number of years and that its policy of interest rate normalization would be on hold for the time being due to several economic factors.\r\n\r\nSecondly, as we all know Janet Yellen is a Dove. Even when she reads a Hawkish statement it sounds dovish! Would she resume normal service?\r\n\r\nThirdly, what data/ timelines would the markets receive on the tapering schedule?\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, I thought she was dovish. Although several well-respected analysts have since said it was NOT that much of a dovish statement.\r\n\r\nThe bond market did not like it and after 15-20 minutes it moved suddenly and the EUR/USD rallied through 1.1700 which, prior to the bond move had held well. After the bond move the EUR/USD was off to the races and it took the FX market with it.\r\n\r\nWhat did Janet Yellen say?\r\n\r\nIn all honesty, she said nothing new; the news about tapering was that it would start “relatively soon”. She acknowledged that inflation was an issue and that it was below the FED 2% objective. The chance of a September rate hike looks like a “no chance” and this is probably what put the winds into the sails of the bond prices.\r\n\r\nWriting generally…\r\n\r\nIt’s all been so well documented what can I add. We really do analyze every word of the prepared Central Bank statements to death.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day, how many times a year do the Central Bank’s move their goal posts on GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Rates just to name three items?\r\n\r\nThe goal posts move which then creates a shift in emphasis and therefore what was previously in place as a target is no longer there anymore and then the cycle starts again.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt economic fundamentals can change requiring adjustments, but sometimes moving the numbers is a ploy to hide failings and relieve scrutiny of a management approach or style in my opinion.\r\n\r\nI am not pointing the finger at any one Central Bank President or Governor, but they all know how to play the game and use the data in their favour.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>CAD: GDP (Beat 0.6% versus 0.2%)\r\n\r\nAll eyes will now be on Stephen Poloz and the BOC given the fact economic data of late has been more bullish the CAD than bearish and all eyes will be on the BOC to see if they will continue with their policy of raising interest rates.\r\n\r\nI think I mentioned this last week or maybe the week before, the move lower in the USD/CAD is now about $0.12 cents which in the good old days was equivalent to about a 1% rate cut all in. Poloz has gotten this move lower of over 1,200 pips for just some jawboning and 0.25%... not too bad.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9761\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-30072017-1024x1019.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1019\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Obviously, the pick of the week is US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, however, before that we have a plethora of data that should provide some volatility.\r\n\r\nI am looking forward to this week’s news events.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>AUD: A big week for AUD data. The RBA issues its latest interest rate statement. We will see the latest Trade Balance numbers and an updated RBA Policy Statement will be released as well as at the latest Retail Sales numbers.\r\n\r\nOver the past couple of weeks the RBA has gone to great lengths to let the markets know they are quite happy with a neutral interest rate policy and that just because other Central Banks are moving to a policy of normalization it does NOT mean that the RBA will follow suit.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am not so sure that the RBA will be happy with the AUD/USD exchange rate pushing 0.8000. There may be some jawboning this week to try to keep the lid on the currency racing away. I am not sure with jawboning if this would have any effect at all, if that is a course of action that takes place. Let’s see what happens.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: This is a very, very big week for the UK. PMi data of late has been poor. We have the BOE inflation report and another MPC interest rate vote. Last month, the vote to keep rates unchanged was 5-3, the market was expecting 7-1. This will be interesting to see if the voting members that voted to hike last month have changed their opinions in view of the poor economic data that we have seen lately. Plus, we have a Carney speech.\r\n\r\nOne can hardly contain one’s excitement!</li>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs data in New Zealand is always a market mover. Recent commentary from the RBNZ has basically been along the lines of “We couldn’t give a crap about the NZD/USD at 0.7400, there’s feck all we can do about it anyway”. Enough said, however, … let’s get the “algo’s” to push it to 0.8000 and see what the RBNZ says then!\r\n\r\nAlgo’s take note!</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs data. If the CAD beats expectations, the rumour of more rate increases this year will hit fever pitch and the call from a trader buddy of mine saying 1.1500 is possible… could be on.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Jobs and ISM data are the pick. I am not so sure that the NFP data this week is going to be that important vis-a-vis the FED’s interest rate normalization policy. It will without doubt create “chaos and disorder” on the day but I am not convinced of any greater importance than just seeing what the stats are. The ISM data will be read carefully.\r\n\r\nEconomic data has been very mixed of late and I think that the consumer has gone into hiding in the U.S. We will get a handle on inflation and this will of course be studied in great detail by the FED.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9762\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-30072017-1024x856.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"856\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9774\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9775\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9773\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9776\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9777\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9778\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9779\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-30072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that I believe differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 60% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,810 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,215 net pips\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n</u>\r\n<u>4.4.3: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> IT’S A BIG WEEK FOR CABLE\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nIt’s super Thursday time once again.\r\n\r\nThis Thursday we get the following GBP data and a speech by Mark “Flip-flopper” Carney, governor of the Bank of England: -\r\n\r\nBOE Inflation Report\r\nMPC Official Bank Rate Votes\r\nMonetary Policy Summary\r\nOfficial Bank Rate\r\nAnd\r\nBOE Governor Carney Speaks\r\n\r\nIt\'s a week which could see the GBP/USD break higher towards 1.3300/1.3400 or shoot lower once again towards 1.2800.\r\n\r\nAs always, it’s all about the interpretation of statistics, and then, a consideration of the future uncertainties that surround the potential movements of cable. Forward guidance is not that good from the BOE under Mark Carney so if he starts talking in guidance terms, I for one will not feel the 100% comfortable in the BOE findings and predictions. Then again, Mark Carney is never really held accountable to this commentary, which, changes direction as many times as a wet and windy day in Galway, Ireland.\r\n\r\nThese days, whilst ultra-important vis-à-vis cable especially with BREXIT in the news practically every day, Carney’s Super Thursdays still lack the gusto of a Mario Draghi (ECB) squirming behind the table talking uncomfortably about a subject he does not believe in, or Janet Yellen (FED) trying to convince us that she is hawkish, whilst all the time she sounds and puts forward her hawkish position in a dove-like manner.\r\n\r\nPoor Mark Carney, what does he have in his armory? Bugger all really, he gave up on forward guidance, or was it I that just gave up reading the garbage that was circulated? He has now taken the title “flip-flopper” as he never appears to hold the same strategy from week to week.\r\n\r\nI suppose it is the “flip-flopping” that makes these events a kind of “What the feck is he going to say this time”, or, “Which way is the wind blowing today in Threadneedle Street?” At the end of the day, despite the sideshow, which I love by the way, there is a huge importance to attach to the data that is released and in my opinion Carneys words can usually be binned a few hours later.\r\n\r\nAt the last Super Thursday practically all the attention was focused on the fact that the vote which was predicted come in at 7-1, came in at 5-3. As a result, the cable strengthened and headed higher. The commentaries were along the lines of “the UK is about to raise rates”.\r\n\r\nIn an attempt to calm and stabilize the markets Carney spoke and said that rates will be low for the foreseeable future. He added, “Now is not the time to raise interest rates”. He quoted uncertainties surrounding BREXIT etc.\r\n\r\nOne week later as a guest at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, Carney spoke again and said that the UK will probably have to look to raise rates this year.\r\n\r\nSo…\r\n\r\nWith this flip-flopper behind the podium what the feck is he going to say this week?\r\n\r\nFor my own needs and perspective, I tabulate some key data for every several economies to keep my macro FUNDAMENTAL thinking in check. I do not go into huge detail just the key data that I like.\r\n\r\nMy UK table is below: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/UK-ECON-FUNDAMENTALS-30072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9766\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/UK-ECON-FUNDAMENTALS-30072017-776x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"776\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nRegular followers of this blog will know that FUNDAMENTALLY I believe that the consumer drives an economy. It is the man and woman on the street that keeps the wheels moving.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts: -\r\n\r\nInflation fell surprisingly last time around (But still held above the 2% BOE target).\r\nConsumer confidence fell again.\r\nMortgage applications marginally lower.\r\n\r\nThe Purchases Index dropped across the board (Manufacturing, Services and Construction).\r\n\r\nIn addition, wages are not keeping pace with inflation. Wage growth is sluggish. This is causing household pain; household debt is rising and this is a concern.\r\n\r\nMy thought process is that the BOE will NOT touch interest rates. Data is very mixed but the core data that effects the man and woman on the street should an interest rate rise be put through now, would kill off any chance of increased domestic spending. Tourists can buy goods in stores but they do not do home renovations etc.\r\n\r\nWhen the BREXIT vote was counted Carney stated that he would keep ample liquidity in the marketplace. I know a huge volume of water has flowed under that bridge since that announcement, but the same perils remain regarding the BREXIT uncertainties. I still believe that the market is 100% complacent over BREXIT.\r\n\r\nSo; what are the possibilities and how do I see it playing out: -\r\n\r\nThis is a little difficult as we receive the July Services, Construction and Manufacturing PMi data next week ahead of the super Thursday’s decision.\r\n\r\nMost people will be focused on the MPC vote. If it remains 5-3: There is a chance that the commentary will include words like “GRADUAL”. Cable will strengthen like crazy towards possibly 1.3400 as the markets will read a 2017 rate move into their plans.\r\n\r\nIf the vote moves back to 6-2 or even square one at 7-1 and leave in “EXTENDED PERIOD” the cable will weaken dramatically back towards 1.2800.\r\n\r\nI see no rate hike and commentary remaining accommodative based upon recent data being mixed. I just cannot see the RISK of raising rates or the slightest mention of raising rates. If cable is allowed to appreciate and then BREXIT negotiations fall apart, the GBP/USD will be at 1.2000 in a heartbeat.\r\n\r\nThere are so many other uncertainties in the UK. I know that the BOE should not go political, but they must be aware of the effects of another general election this autumn / fall given the tenuous position of power Theresa May has as UK Prime Minister. In addition, the BREXIT negotiations are slow, tedious and not providing any comfort to the markets at the moment. The movement of capital inflows out of the city of London is gathering pace as more and more financial institutions are announcing where they are going to set up shop in 18 months’ time when they exit the UK.\r\n\r\nIt is a tough decision.\r\n\r\nTo raise rates would kill off many households in the UK and create a problem probably not worth having as long as inflation remains under say 3.5%.  As long as inflation is level or even above 2% it\'s a problem worth having than trying to fix. To address it will open up a can of worms best kept under lock and key. In this instance, all the accountants and so-called financial brains should be given gardening leave.\r\n\r\nAs long as Mark Carney delivers a strong message in whatever direction, he must be believable and herein lies a FUNDAMENTAL problem. He is a “flip-flopper”.\r\n\r\nI am still in the camp of cable 1.2000 and EUR/GBP close to parity. I will be glued to my desk this Thursday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #247 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 30th July 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'IT’S A BIG WEEK FOR CABLE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9788-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-07-29 11:05:06', '2017-07-29 16:05:06', '', 9788, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9788-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(9836, 1, '2017-08-05 07:36:54', '2017-08-05 12:36:54', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI cannot believe that we are into August. This blog is the last one for a few weeks, I return with the “DRIVE THRU” blog on September 3rd, 2017.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note that trading will continue through the “DRIVE THRU” break. I do have one or two key domestic action items to fulfil during the break and I will alert you when these are in play.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BOE “Super Thursday” event is now behind us and despite advising the markets that tightening is on the way, it was obvious due to the reaction in cable falling from around 1.3260 to about 1.3110 in the hour or so after the news was released and Mark Carney’s subsequent press conference, that the markets had priced in a more hawkish BOE. I will cover this event a in little more detail later.\r\n\r\nLooking at money $$$...\r\n\r\nI covered lots of trades ahead of last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and added a positive +691 pips for the first few days of the month. It’s a great start and I am very quickly pulling back my pips shortfall from earlier in the year due to my house move followed almost immediately by a 4-week vacation. There is still some way to go to my 10,000-pip annual objective but I am now almost back to where my pips total should be for this time of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs Data.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px;\">The Kiwi has been struggling since the data was released mid-week. Job growth in New Zealand is flat-lining. In Q2 2017, employment fell by 0.2% It was up 1.2% the previous quarter and it was forecasted to be positive this quarter by 0.7%.\r\n\r\nIt was the first contraction in employment since Q3 2015. The participation rate also slid 0.6%.\r\n\r\nHaving only recently visited New Zealand both North and South Islands, the place was buzzing and the dynamics appeared very positive. However, beneath this outer crust and dynamism the wages environment is subdued. In this instance, New Zealand is no different to other developed countries, despite unemployment levels being at historic low levels, wages are just NOT picking up.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>AUD: RBA Rate Statement.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px;\">Dr. Philip Lowe (RBA Governor) kept rates unchanged and kept the commentary neutral. He did however elude to the fact that should the current AUD strength continue, it is likely to weigh on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would result in a slower pick-up of economic activity and inflation than currently forecasted.\r\n\r\nDo I read… AUD strength = a growth slowdown?\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective; I do think that the RBA would prefer a weaker currency (who wouldn’t). With the AUD/USD hitting an 0.8065, the orders for Prozac at the RBA would have increased. A break below 0.7840 (recent breakout level) would ease matters a great deal. Obviously, an AUD/USD exchange rate hovering between 0.7000 and 0.7500 would be preferred by the RBA.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li>GBP: BOE and Carney Press Conference.Interest Rate on Hold\r\nMPC 6-2 vote\r\nGrowth forecasts revised lower.\r\nInflation to peak c.3% in October.\r\nInterest Rates may need TO RISE FASTER than markets imply.\r\nUncertainty about BREXIT will weigh on growth.\r\nWages growth market down from 3.5% to 3%.They were the key things that I noted from the Statement and Press Conference.In addition, what made me giggle a bit was Carney’s multiple references to households and businesses taking the lead in reactions to BREXIT uncertainties. He noted that both households and business were taking BREXIT in their stride and that they were both expecting a smooth transition.\r\n\r\nFFS… my arse.\r\n\r\nHouseholds are more in debt than ever. Wages are not keeping growth in line with inflation. There is great uncertainty.\r\n\r\nBusinesses are using BREXIT as an excuse to limit wage rises on the back of “be grateful you have a job all things considered”.\r\n\r\nIs Threadneedle Street in a time warp?\r\n\r\nThese guys beggar belief. Carney stated that the BOE has spoken to ‘real” people about policies. Who are these people, the Chaps in the local pub in the city around the corner from the BOE?\r\n\r\nThe GBP however was whacked on the BOE statement and the following Press Conference and again on the NFP data, moving lower by almost 250 pips from its pre “Super Thursday” highs.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs Data.It was a small miss on the Canadian data, which, I suppose given how, of late Canadian data has nearly always been a beat was a little surprising. Personally, I welcomed this miss, as it has allowed the USD/CAD to rally (CAD to weaken). I have been waiting very patiently for an entry level short (This entry was posted to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers POS393). I feel that this level should be achieved early this week.The Trade Balance number at (-3.6 CAD$ Billion versus -1.3 CAD$ billion expected) was a little worrying… but one month does not make up a trend.I am firmly in the camp that the CAD has at least another leg lower and a big one at that.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.I suppose my position on the reaction to the data would be “The market was just too heavily positioned the wrong way… far too much USD weakness, and by the looks of things too many USD shorts.The data at 209k new jobs versus 181k predicted once again showed up the difference between ADP and NFP. ADP simply cannot be trusted as an indicator or a barometer when it comes to looking at forecasting NFP. Then again, only a fecking loony would forecast NFP, it\'s a bloody lottery when all said and done…but hang on…maybe it’s not a lottery. At least with a lottery you have a chance!Back on track…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers. After the analysts and experts crawled out from beneath their desks and realised this the USD started to strengthen in style (Over 100 points higher).\r\n\r\nWell over, +100 pip moves with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nThe usual suspects crawled out from under rocks to claim that the FED’s rate rise in December is possibility back on. FFS, HMOG, FGS, and JM&amp;J… we are in the middle of summer. Given the fact we have a clown in the White House, I would not be giving forward guidance on a damn thing more than a few hours ahead never mind a few months. I suppose these flutes are not in any way accountable for their predictions and they mostly have no skin in the game, so who cares what they say. In my opinion, this is one reason why CNBC ratings are falling faster than the cable at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe only person to listen to about FED activity in my opinion is Janet Yellen. Ignore the noise.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9820\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017-1024x888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"888\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Those awfully nice chaps at the RBNZ led by Governor Graeme “the dealer” Wheeler has my top pick of the week this week.As I type this, the memorandum will already be circulating at the RBNZ deciding on the choice of wine for this week’s Press Conference and whether to go for cheese or pate. All the local corporate hospitality companies have been moved from orange to red alert to ensure sufficient stemware is on hand. No swigging from the bottles at the RBNZ.On a more serious note...The jobs data last week was a surprising miss. The Kiwi dollar back up at NZD/USD 0.7500 must have had Wheeler pissing conkers. Many traders / analysts / experts? had the NZD/USD trading at 0.7800 testing the May 2015 levels.\r\n\r\nNobody expects a rate move from the current 1.75%. It’s all about the commentary. Will Wheeler remain neutral or will he jawbone and go dovish trying to send the NZD/USD back towards 0.7000?\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago just prior to the latest drop in the USD, the NZD was showing signs of life to move sharply higher. A spokesperson from the RBNZ said basically “so what” 75%-80% of what the NZD/USD does exchange rate wise is out of the RBNZ control.\r\n\r\nOK… let’s roll out the same flute with the NZD/USD at 0.8000. Would the response be different? As sure as eggs are eggs it would be. There would be jawboning. As soon as dairy exports are threatened the RBNZ will act and like a good central bank they want stability. I would not rule out jawboning at this meeting just to keep the markets in check.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, Wheelers rate statement and his jawboning never seem to go in tandem. It’s like he speaks with this right hand and writes with his left and neither hand knows what the other hand has done or is doing.\r\n\r\nIt all adds together to give us a news event to follow with interest. The Rate statement is released at 5PM EST and the Press Conference takes place at 6PM EST this Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: PPi and CPi data is released this week. Given that the FED is off its normalization route at the moment (even with the better than expected NFP data). These news items may not have the usual effect on markets other than for 30 minutes or so after the data is released. The FED change and the summer may play a combined role here. Nevertheless, we should be aware of the results.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9821\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017-1024x845.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"845\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.1.1: YOUR <strong>BENEFITS</strong> OF SUBSCRIBING:</u>\r\n\r\nI am obviously biased in this section;\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, it is not just about market commentaries and suggested trade set ups. I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different from other providers in the Forex Market.\r\nHow have I created differentiation?\r\n\r\nI am a full-time Forex Trader of over 9 years.\r\nI trade my trades.\r\nI have SKIN in the game.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – not all service providers are traders. </strong>\r\n\r\nAll my suggested trades are communicated via Twitter through a secure / closed account and confirmed with more back up data for my trades through email. I tell you when I am getting in and I advise you if I am getting out. If you want to copy me you know what I am doing.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – Real time trading (24 x 5), regardless of time zone</strong>\r\n\r\nI am NOT an educator. I am a trader first and foremost, but I can help many traders become better at what they do\r\nForex Trading is repetition and to a large extent a daily routine and many times quite boring.\r\nTechnical trading of patterns and previous support and resistance levels, Pivot points and Fibonacci levels, they all work.\r\nI feel and my successes are based these indicators being used alongside fundamentals.\r\nFundamentals alone are not good enough in my opinion. They will eventually work but requires very, very deep pockets.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I live for my trades and pass this belief to subscribers</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI offer serious traders additional support such as “one-on-one” coaching: -\r\n\r\nIdentifying Chart Patterns\r\nWhat do candlestick patterns mean?\r\nWhat do single candlesticks signify?\r\nHow do I identify high probability trades?\r\nHow to Manage RISK\r\nHow to POSITION SIZE effectively\r\nEffective Account Management\r\nHow to achieve Market longevity.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I want to help you achieve a Trading success</strong>\r\n\r\nI provide Market Commentary – but only when there is something important to communicate about the markets or something that is on my mind to say.\r\nI tell it how it is from my perspective. I do my best to straight talking in every situation.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU - I remove the noise remain informative and focused</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive a “FULL VERSION” of this blog that includes sections on: -\r\nMy Market Trading Review (PREMIUM SERVICE progress)\r\nTechnical views plus Fundamental views and thoughts\r\nMarket Sentiment analysis\r\nCore Trades and Core Positions analysis\r\nA review of current LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – It’s open, honest, straight to the point and concise</strong>\r\n\r\nAnnual (Platinum) Subscribers receive, (if they want it) a personal monthly review via SKYPE or FaceTime of the PREMIUM SERVICE trades, an overview of the markets and my FUNDAMENTAL views / ideas moving forward.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I welcome interaction it feeds success</strong>\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs.\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 70% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +691 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,906 net pips\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.2.1: SUBSCRIBING NOW…  HAS BENEFITS:</u>\r\n\r\nEven though I am not producing a “DRIVE THRU” blog for the next three weeks, my subscription periods of 10, 20 or 40 weeks are based around the DRIVE THRU posts.\r\n\r\nTherefore subscribing now really means that your subscription does not start until 3rd September, three weeks’ time. However, between now and them, I am still trading therefore suggested set ups and twitter, email, in fact all communication is open.\r\n\r\nTherefore: -\r\n\r\nA 10-week CAD$500.00 subscription starts 3rd September and would complete on 12th November 2017.\r\n\r\nA 20-week CAD$800.00 subscription would start 3rd September and would complete on 10th February 2018.\r\n\r\nA 40-week CAD$1,250.00 Platinum subscription would start 3rd September and complete on 30th June 2018.\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week the PREMIUM SERVICE added +691 net pips. That I think was the biggest net pip haul in a week this year. Happy Days!!\r\n\r\nI had a few SKYPE sessions (Market Review and Training) over the past week or so. Some great feedback and some interesting ideas for me to mull over amongst other things over the next few weeks.\r\n\r\nWhilst this is the last blog until September, I will still be trading through the month and set-ups should still be coming through on a regular basis. The only caveat that I have is that it is the summer and moves are rather limiting to say the least, although, over the past couple of days we have seen some good moves, so maybe this year will be slightly different.\r\n\r\nWe have a TRUMP in the White House and he seems incapable of self-control so I guess he will always create news, which could affect the FX markets.\r\n\r\nDespite, a great initial return in pips this month so far, I am sticking to what I said last week. The market is difficult to follow as correlations and relationships are still askew.\r\n\r\nWe are at a RE-ALIGNMENT and until this pushes through properly through all markets we will to a large extent be in a state of flux.\r\n\r\nThere are a lot of consolidations in the markets at the moment. The longer we consolidate the less I am inclined to believe that the moves higher or lower were false breakouts or breakdowns.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD will lead the markets through this RE-STRUCTURE &amp; RE-ALIGNMENT if it fails to move beyond 1.2000, and subsequently consolidate there, I will question my overall thoughts regarding a RE-ALIGNMENT. However, with the ECB looking to normalize monetary policy sometime soon, I think that the markets are waiting to fire on all cylinders.\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nNow that NFP and BOE “Super Thursday” is out of the way, and we have recently heard from the FED, BOJ, RBA and BOC, we should have the basis of at least 60 days directional trading based upon Central Bank policies.\r\n\r\nThis coming week therefore my focus will be on “value entries”. I think that I must focus here based upon the fact we are in August.\r\n\r\nThe EUR cross rates look very attractive still to the long side; EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD. Nice pullback entries would be the order of the day.\r\nI also want to add to my position with the EUR/CHF trade on the basis that there are only round number resistances on the way back to 1.2000. I have three x CHF long trades at the moment and would have no problem adding more throughout the summer.\r\n\r\nAway from the EUR. The AUD looks very interesting especially on a breakdown through 0.7840 which was the breakout point.\r\n\r\nWith regards to cable; I am still more of a 1.2000 than a 1.3500 guy. I just don’t get this BREXIT complacency and all the shite talked about a HARD BREXIT versus a SOFT BREXIT. What a load of bollocks. The EUROZONE are NOT going to make BREXIT a walk in the park for one very simple reason… CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nFor now; I am waiting for a nice pullback entry which we will get to re-enter short once again. I am avoiding the GBP crosses at the moment, the GBP/CAD being the exception based on CAD and GBP direction / momentum on the weekly and monthly charts. They are in between levels and rather than waste time on these the EUR crosses offer a better return from analyzing time spent on charts.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to enter CAD short across the board with USD/CAD, CAD/JPY (already in place), GBP/CAD, AUD/USD, CHF/CAD and NZD/CAD trades. Not 100% on EUR/CAD given the single currency bullishness.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\nThis is a new addition to this section. The SHORT or LONG indicators in the excel sheet are based on buying and selling pressure algorithms averaged for the time periods. I use these from time to time for confirmation of a trade. In addition, when I see the Short, Medium and Long term periods in alignment this gives me more confidence vis-à-vis a trades direction and who is in control of the currency pair, the bears or the bulls.\r\n<u></u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MKT-SENT-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9822\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MKT-SENT-06082017-675x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"675\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nPrior to the “Debelle” comments from a couple of weeks ago this pair looked very constructive to the long side. It was whacked lower on the comments. Longer-term fair value for this pair is much higher.\r\n\r\nBasically, it is a slow mover but hopefully before I die it will be back into the 1.20’s again!\r\n\r\nI am going to persevere with this pair… I have for almost two years now!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCHF PAIRS: (Live)\r\n\r\nI am building this overall position. We have already taken c.180 pips from existing trades. I will be adding more positions as well as the additional POS trades added after NFP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD and EUR Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nAt some stage I am going to have to take the plunge and enter long EUR/USD and hold. At some stage this year the ECB is going to taper and normalize. I want to be in position sooner rather than later for this. In addition, it makes sense to add EUR cross rates as well.\r\n\r\nFollowing the NFP move, I now want to see this pair consolidate at lower levels before moving higher once again. This is the pullback that I was waiting for and it has come as a bit of a surprise. The market was very long the single currency, hopefully a lot of the longs will be shaken out with the NFP move and re-balance things a bit.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD and GBP Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nI am waiting on a pullback after the NFP data to set up a batch of shorts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIVE-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9824\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIVE-06082017-928x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"928\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIMIT-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9823\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIMIT-06082017-851x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"851\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nWHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWith a title like that it sounds like I have an end of the world type of prediction to follow… you are safe!\r\n\r\nWe are now into the sleepy summer. There are some risks, most of them are geopolitical.\r\n\r\nI have in the main over recent weeks been looking forward predicting a new world… CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE, RE-STRUCTURE, RE-ALIGNMENT of the markets and I still believe we are in the throes of this happening despite the recent 72 hours or so in the Forex Market.\r\n\r\nLet’s recap what happened in the immediate past: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Mark Carney (BOE, Governor), finally came out and said what needed to be said to put the damn bulls back in their boxes for at least this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>We had a blowout NFP number.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThat’s nothing earth shattering. Does the above change my thoughts and views that I have had for the past month or so?\r\n\r\nAbsolutely not; I was bearish and shorting the cable long before “Super Thursday”.\r\n\r\nDid I predict a good NFP?\r\n\r\nI don\'t do predictions and I doubt even David Copperfield or Penn &amp; Teller could magic up an accurate NFP number.\r\n\r\nWe are in transition.\r\n\r\nFrom this Monday I am on 50% leave for the summer until the 1st September. So, what is next?\r\n\r\nOver the next few weeks the big Forex event could be the Jackson Hole Symposium. Initially Mario Draghi (ECB, President) was going to use this event as the place he would talk about the timetable of events within the ECB for a return to interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nI am not so certain that he will do this. My thought process is basically due to the fact the markets are ready to leap on the back of the single currency and send it to outer space (in forex terms) about 1.2500-1.3000 if the mood takes them. Draghi would literally poop his pants if he thought the EUR/USD would be at 1.2500 in rapid order.\r\n\r\nWe have German elections this Autumn/Fall and whilst German savers would welcome normalization, I would say that EUROZONE exporters primarily based in Germany would be buying “Andrex” and the like, in Costco quantities on a daily basis, as the increase in liquid stools could potentially reach epidemic proportions. Sales of Imodium could go through the roof (This is not investment advice).\r\n\r\nGerman elections is one good reason why Mario Draghi may just provide some B.S. at Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nMy fear is that “THE DONALD” will create the next big move. It will of course be largely “not surprising” but it will be unpredictable from a timing viewpoint, even though we know about the potential of something happening.\r\n\r\nRight now, given all the geopolitical events in play around the world the markets are complacent. All the U.S. markets are concerned about are 401K valuations and returns, stock valuations mean feck all; we are on the brink once again in my opinion… (RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT).\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>What about China being declared a currency manipulator, now that they failed to intervene effectively with North Korea?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about China getting huge trade restrictions placed upon them by the U.S.?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea dropping an ICBN on Japan… by mistake or intentionally?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea taking aim on the continental United States?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about the Russian / U.S. diplomatic expulsion tit for tat getting out of control spilling over into troubles in the “Old Soviet Block?</li>\r\n 	<li>What happens if the Iran / U.S. nuclear deal blows up?</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP has sided with Saudi Arabia over the Qatar terrorism claims. What would happen if this dispute escalates and unsettles stability in the region and subsequently OIL production?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have only highlighted US based geopolitical related issues, as usually these would affect all markets to varying degrees. The chances of something happening could be 50-50 from my perspective, but who knows. I have ignored all the investigations and enquiries that shadow the TRUMP administration, these can just flare up at any time without warning, a tweet could kick it off.\r\n\r\nSo; what am I saying?\r\n\r\nJust be on your toes if you are trading over the next three or four weeks. Many traders are away. Many traders simply do not trade the summer.\r\n\r\nMost risks are similar to what we have every summer…  geopolitical. There are more flare up zones than the ones I have listed above, but I do feel that those areas with a TRUMP involvement are more at risk.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective as I have written earlier we are in the throes of a transition. There are entry “Gifts” as I call them on the horizon. Grab them; the EUR/USD in particular, but hold with wider stops than usual to allow for the very thin trading conditions with lower liquidity than usual.\r\n\r\nTake care, back on September 3rd.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #144 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 6th August 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'whats-next-recent-big-moves', '', '', '2017-08-05 07:38:23', '2017-08-05 12:38:23', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=9836', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
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(9837, 1, '2017-08-05 07:33:54', '2017-08-05 12:33:54', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI cannot believe that we are into August. This blog is the last one for a few weeks, I return with the “DRIVE THRU” blog on September 3rd, 2017.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note that trading will continue through the “DRIVE THRU” break. I do have one or two key domestic action items to fulfil during the break and I will alert you when these are in play.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BOE “Super Thursday” event is now behind us and despite advising the markets that tightening is on the way, it was obvious due to the reaction in cable falling from around 1.3260 to about 1.3110 in the hour or so after the news was released and Mark Carney’s subsequent press conference, that the markets had priced in a more hawkish BOE. I will cover this event a in little more detail later.\r\n\r\nLooking at money $$$...\r\n\r\nI covered lots of trades ahead of last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and added a positive +691 pips for the first few days of the month. It’s a great start and I am very quickly pulling back my pips shortfall from earlier in the year due to my house move followed almost immediately by a 4-week vacation. There is still some way to go to my 10,000-pip annual objective but I am now almost back to where my pips total should be for this time of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs Data.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px;\">The Kiwi has been struggling since the data was released mid-week. Job growth in New Zealand is flat-lining. In Q2 2017, employment fell by 0.2% It was up 1.2% the previous quarter and it was forecasted to be positive this quarter by 0.7%.\r\n\r\nIt was the first contraction in employment since Q3 2015. The participation rate also slid 0.6%.\r\n\r\nHaving only recently visited New Zealand both North and South Islands, the place was buzzing and the dynamics appeared very positive. However, beneath this outer crust and dynamism the wages environment is subdued. In this instance, New Zealand is no different to other developed countries, despite unemployment levels being at historic low levels, wages are just NOT picking up.\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>AUD: RBA Rate Statement.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px;\">\r\nDr. Philip Lowe (RBA Governor) kept rates unchanged and kept the commentary neutral. He did however elude to the fact that should the current AUD strength continue, it is likely to weigh on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would result in a slower pick-up of economic activity and inflation than currently forecasted.\r\n\r\nDo I read… AUD strength = a growth slowdown?\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective; I do think that the RBA would prefer a weaker currency (who wouldn’t). With the AUD/USD hitting an 0.8065, the orders for Prozac at the RBA would have increased. A break below 0.7840 (recent breakout level) would ease matters a great deal. Obviously, an AUD/USD exchange rate hovering between 0.7000 and 0.7500 would be preferred by the RBA.\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li>GBP: BOE and Carney Press Conference.\r\n\r\nInterest Rate on Hold\r\nMPC 6-2 vote\r\nGrowth forecasts revised lower.\r\nInflation to peak c.3% in October.\r\nInterest Rates may need TO RISE FASTER than markets imply.\r\nUncertainty about BREXIT will weigh on growth.\r\nWages growth market down from 3.5% to 3%.\r\n\r\nThey were the key things that I noted from the Statement and Press Conference.\r\n\r\nIn addition, what made me giggle a bit was Carney’s multiple references to households and businesses taking the lead in reactions to BREXIT uncertainties. He noted that both households and business were taking BREXIT in their stride and that they were both expecting a smooth transition.\r\n\r\nFFS… my arse.\r\n\r\nHouseholds are more in debt than ever. Wages are not keeping growth in line with inflation. There is great uncertainty.\r\n\r\nBusinesses are using BREXIT as an excuse to limit wage rises on the back of “be grateful you have a job all things considered”.\r\n\r\nIs Threadneedle Street in a time warp?\r\n\r\nThese guys beggar belief. Carney stated that the BOE has spoken to ‘real” people about policies. Who are these people, the Chaps in the local pub in the city around the corner from the BOE?\r\n\r\nThe GBP however was whacked on the BOE statement and the following Press Conference and again on the NFP data, moving lower by almost 250 pips from its pre “Super Thursday” highs.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs Data.\r\n\r\nIt was a small miss on the Canadian data, which, I suppose given how, of late Canadian data has nearly always been a beat was a little surprising. Personally, I welcomed this miss, as it has allowed the USD/CAD to rally (CAD to weaken). I have been waiting very patiently for an entry level short (This entry was posted to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers POS393). I feel that this level should be achieved early this week.\r\n\r\nThe Trade Balance number at (-3.6 CAD$ Billion versus -1.3 CAD$ billion expected) was a little worrying… but one month does not make up a trend.\r\n\r\nI am firmly in the camp that the CAD has at least another leg lower and a big one at that.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.\r\n\r\nI suppose my position on the reaction to the data would be “The market was just too heavily positioned the wrong way… far too much USD weakness, and by the looks of things too many USD shorts.\r\n\r\nThe data at 209k new jobs versus 181k predicted once again showed up the difference between ADP and NFP. ADP simply cannot be trusted as an indicator or a barometer when it comes to looking at forecasting NFP. Then again, only a fecking loony would forecast NFP, it\'s a bloody lottery when all said and done…but hang on…maybe it’s not a lottery. At least with a lottery you have a chance!\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers. After the analysts and experts crawled out from beneath their desks and realised this the USD started to strengthen in style (Over 100 points higher).\r\n\r\nWell over, +100 pip moves with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nThe usual suspects crawled out from under rocks to claim that the FED’s rate rise in December is possibility back on. FFS, HMOG, FGS, and JM&amp;J… we are in the middle of summer. Given the fact we have a clown in the White House, I would not be giving forward guidance on a damn thing more than a few hours ahead never mind a few months. I suppose these flutes are not in any way accountable for their predictions and they mostly have no skin in the game, so who cares what they say. In my opinion, this is one reason why CNBC ratings are falling faster than the cable at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe only person to listen to about FED activity in my opinion is Janet Yellen. Ignore the noise.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9820\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017-1024x888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"888\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Economic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Those awfully nice chaps at the RBNZ led by Governor Graeme “the dealer” Wheeler has my top pick of the week this week.\r\n\r\nAs I type this, the memorandum will already be circulating at the RBNZ deciding on the choice of wine for this week’s Press Conference and whether to go for cheese or pate. All the local corporate hospitality companies have been moved from orange to red alert to ensure sufficient stemware is on hand. No swigging from the bottles at the RBNZ.\r\n\r\nOn a more serious note...\r\n\r\nThe jobs data last week was a surprising miss. The Kiwi dollar back up at NZD/USD 0.7500 must have had Wheeler pissing conkers. Many traders / analysts / experts? had the NZD/USD trading at 0.7800 testing the May 2015 levels.\r\n\r\nNobody expects a rate move from the current 1.75%. It’s all about the commentary. Will Wheeler remain neutral or will he jawbone and go dovish trying to send the NZD/USD back towards 0.7000?\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago just prior to the latest drop in the USD, the NZD was showing signs of life to move sharply higher. A spokesperson from the RBNZ said basically “so what” 75%-80% of what the NZD/USD does exchange rate wise is out of the RBNZ control.\r\n\r\nOK… let’s roll out the same flute with the NZD/USD at 0.8000. Would the response be different? As sure as eggs are eggs it would be. There would be jawboning. As soon as dairy exports are threatened the RBNZ will act and like a good central bank they want stability. I would not rule out jawboning at this meeting just to keep the markets in check.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, Wheelers rate statement and his jawboning never seem to go in tandem. It’s like he speaks with this right hand and writes with his left and neither hand knows what the other hand has done or is doing.\r\n\r\nIt all adds together to give us a news event to follow with interest. The Rate statement is released at 5PM EST and the Press Conference takes place at 6PM EST this Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: PPi and CPi data is released this week. Given that the FED is off its normalization route at the moment (even with the better than expected NFP data). These news items may not have the usual effect on markets other than for 30 minutes or so after the data is released. The FED change and the summer may play a combined role here. Nevertheless, we should be aware of the results.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9821\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017-1024x845.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"845\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.1.1: YOUR <strong>BENEFITS</strong> OF SUBSCRIBING:</u>\r\n\r\nI am obviously biased in this section;\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, it is not just about market commentaries and suggested trade set ups. I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different from other providers in the Forex Market.\r\nHow have I created differentiation?\r\n\r\nI am a full-time Forex Trader of over 9 years.\r\nI trade my trades.\r\nI have SKIN in the game.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – not all service providers are traders. </strong>\r\n\r\nAll my suggested trades are communicated via Twitter through a secure / closed account and confirmed with more back up data for my trades through email. I tell you when I am getting in and I advise you if I am getting out. If you want to copy me you know what I am doing.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – Real time trading (24 x 5), regardless of time zone</strong>\r\n\r\nI am NOT an educator. I am a trader first and foremost, but I can help many traders become better at what they do\r\nForex Trading is repetition and to a large extent a daily routine and many times quite boring.\r\nTechnical trading of patterns and previous support and resistance levels, Pivot points and Fibonacci levels, they all work.\r\nI feel and my successes are based these indicators being used alongside fundamentals.\r\nFundamentals alone are not good enough in my opinion. They will eventually work but requires very, very deep pockets.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I live for my trades and pass this belief to subscribers</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI offer serious traders additional support such as “one-on-one” coaching: -\r\n\r\nIdentifying Chart Patterns\r\nWhat do candlestick patterns mean?\r\nWhat do single candlesticks signify?\r\nHow do I identify high probability trades?\r\nHow to Manage RISK\r\nHow to POSITION SIZE effectively\r\nEffective Account Management\r\nHow to achieve Market longevity.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I want to help you achieve a Trading success</strong>\r\n\r\nI provide Market Commentary – but only when there is something important to communicate about the markets or something that is on my mind to say.\r\nI tell it how it is from my perspective. I do my best to straight talking in every situation.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU - I remove the noise remain informative and focussed</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive a “FULL VERSION” of this blog that includes sections on: -\r\nMy Market Trading Review (PREMIUM SERVICE progress)\r\nTechnical views plus Fundamental views and thoughts\r\nMarket Sentiment analysis\r\nCore Trades and Core Positions analysis\r\nA review of current LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – It’s open, honest, straight to the point and concise</strong>\r\n\r\nAnnual (Platinum) Subscribers receive, (if they want it) a personal monthly review via SKYPE or FaceTime of the PREMIUM SERVICE trades, an overview of the markets and my FUNDAMENTAL views / ideas moving forward.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I welcome interaction it feeds success</strong>\r\n\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs.\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 70% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +691 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,906 net pips\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.2.1: SUBSCRIBING NOW…  HAS BENEFITS:</u>\r\n\r\nEven though I am not producing a “DRIVE THRU” blog for the next three weeks, my subscription periods of 10, 20 or 40 weeks are based around the DRIVE THRU posts.\r\n\r\nTherefore subscribing now really means that your subscription does not start until 3rd September, three weeks’ time. However, between now and them, I am still trading therefore suggested set ups and twitter, email, in fact all communication is open.\r\n\r\nTherefore: -\r\n\r\nA 10-week CAD$500.00 subscription starts 3rd September and would complete on 12th November 2017.\r\n\r\nA 20-week CAD$800.00 subscription would start 3rd September and would complete on 10th February 2018.\r\n\r\nA 40-week CAD$1,250.00 Platinum subscription would start 3rd September and complete on 30th June 2018.\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week the PREMIUM SERVICE added +691 net pips. That I think was the biggest net pip haul in a week this year. Happy Days!!\r\n\r\nI had a few SKYPE sessions (Market Review and Training) over the past week or so. Some great feedback and some interesting ideas for me to mull over amongst other things over the next few weeks.\r\n\r\nWhilst this is the last blog until September, I will still be trading through the month and set-ups should still be coming through on a regular basis. The only caveat that I have is that it is the summer and moves are rather limiting to say the least, although, over the past couple of days we have seen some good moves, so maybe this year will be slightly different.\r\n\r\nWe have a TRUMP in the White House and he seems incapable of self-control so I guess he will always create news, which could affect the FX markets.\r\n\r\nDespite, a great initial return in pips this month so far, I am sticking to what I said last week. The market is difficult to follow as correlations and relationships are still askew.\r\n\r\nWe are at a RE-ALIGNMENT and until this pushes through properly through all markets we will to a large extent be in a state of flux.\r\n\r\nThere are a lot of consolidations in the markets at the moment. The longer we consolidate the less I am inclined to believe that the moves higher or lower were false breakouts or breakdowns.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD will lead the markets through this RE-STRUCTURE &amp; RE-ALIGNMENT if it fails to move beyond 1.2000, and subsequently consolidate there, I will question my overall thoughts regarding a RE-ALIGNMENT. However, with the ECB looking to normalize monetary policy sometime soon, I think that the markets are waiting to fire on all cylinders.\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nNow that NFP and BOE “Super Thursday” is out of the way, and we have recently heard from the FED, BOJ, RBA and BOC, we should have the basis of at least 60 days directional trading based upon Central Bank policies.\r\n\r\nThis coming week therefore my focus will be on “value entries”. I think that I must focus here based upon the fact we are in August.\r\n\r\nThe EUR cross rates look very attractive still to the long side; EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD. Nice pullback entries would be the order of the day.\r\nI also want to add to my position with the EUR/CHF trade on the basis that there are only round number resistances on the way back to 1.2000. I have three x CHF long trades at the moment and would have no problem adding more throughout the summer.\r\n\r\nAway from the EUR. The AUD looks very interesting especially on a breakdown through 0.7840 which was the breakout point.\r\n\r\nWith regards to cable; I am still more of a 1.2000 than a 1.3500 guy. I just don’t get this BREXIT complacency and all the shite talked about a HARD BREXIT versus a SOFT BREXIT. What a load of bollocks. The EUROZONE are NOT going to make BREXIT a walk in the park for one very simple reason… CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nFor now; I am waiting for a nice pullback entry which we will get to re-enter short once again. I am avoiding the GBP crosses at the moment, the GBP/CAD being the exception based on CAD and GBP direction / momentum on the weekly and monthly charts. They are in between levels and rather than waste time on these the EUR crosses offer a better return from analyzing time spent on charts.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to enter CAD short across the board with USD/CAD, CAD/JPY (already in place), GBP/CAD, AUD/USD, CHF/CAD and NZD/CAD trades. Not 100% on EUR/CAD given the single currency bullishness.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n</u>This is a new addition to this section. The SHORT or LONG indicators in the excel sheet are based on buying and selling pressure algorithms averaged for the time periods. I use these from time to time for confirmation of a trade. In addition, when I see the Short, Medium and Long term periods in alignment this gives me more confidence vis-à-vis a trades direction and who is in control of the currency pair, the bears or the bulls.\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n</u><u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MKT-SENT-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9822\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MKT-SENT-06082017-675x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"675\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nPrior to the “Debelle” comments from a couple of weeks ago this pair looked very constructive to the long side. It was whacked lower on the comments. Longer-term fair value for this pair is much higher.\r\n\r\nBasically, it is a slow mover but hopefully before I die it will be back into the 1.20’s again!\r\n\r\nI am going to persevere with this pair… I have for almost two years now!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCHF PAIRS: (Live)\r\n\r\nI am building this overall position. We have already taken c.180 pips from existing trades. I will be adding more positions as well as the additional POS trades added after NFP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD and EUR Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nAt some stage I am going to have to take the plunge and enter long EUR/USD and hold. At some stage this year the ECB is going to taper and normalize. I want to be in position sooner rather than later for this. In addition, it makes sense to add EUR cross rates as well.\r\n\r\nFollowing the NFP move, I now want to see this pair consolidate at lower levels before moving higher once again. This is the pullback that I was waiting for and it has come as a bit of a surprise. The market was very long the single currency, hopefully a lot of the longs will be shaken out with the NFP move and re-balance things a bit.\r\n\r\n\r\nGBP/USD and GBP Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nI am waiting on a pullback after the NFP data to set up a batch of shorts.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIVE-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9824\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIVE-06082017-928x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"928\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIMIT-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9823\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIMIT-06082017-851x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"851\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nWHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nWith a title like that it sounds like I have an end of the world type of prediction to follow… you are safe!\r\n\r\nWe are now into the sleepy summer. There are some risks, most of them are geopolitical.\r\n\r\nI have in the main over recent weeks been looking forward predicting a new world… CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE, RE-STRUCTURE, RE-ALIGNMENT of the markets and I still believe we are in the throes of this happening despite the recent 72 hours or so in the Forex Market.\r\n\r\nLet’s recap what happened in the immediate past: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Mark Carney (BOE, Governor), finally came out and said what needed to be said to put the damn bulls back in their boxes for at least this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>We had a blowout NFP number.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThat’s nothing earth shattering. Does the above change my thoughts and views that I have had for the past month or so?\r\n\r\nAbsolutely not; I was bearish and shorting the cable long before “Super Thursday”.\r\n\r\nDid I predict a good NFP?\r\n\r\nI don\'t do predictions and I doubt even David Copperfield or Penn &amp; Teller could magic up an accurate NFP number.\r\n\r\nWe are in transition.\r\n\r\nFrom this Monday I am on 50% leave for the summer until the 1st September. So, what is next?\r\n\r\nOver the next few weeks the big Forex event could be the Jackson Hole Symposium. Initially Mario Draghi (ECB, President) was going to use this event as the place he would talk about the timetable of events within the ECB for a return to interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nI am not so certain that he will do this. My thought process is basically due to the fact the markets are ready to leap on the back of the single currency and send it to outer space (in forex terms) about 1.2500-1.3000 if the mood takes them. Draghi would literally poop his pants if he thought the EUR/USD would be at 1.2500 in rapid order.\r\n\r\nWe have German elections this Autumn/Fall and whilst German savers would welcome normalization, I would say that EUROZONE exporters primarily based in Germany would be buying “Andrex” and the like, in Costco quantities on a daily basis, as the increase in liquid stools could potentially reach epidemic proportions. Sales of Imodium could go through the roof (This is not investment advice).\r\n\r\nGerman elections is one good reason why Mario Draghi may just provide some B.S. at Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nMy fear is that “THE DONALD” will create the next big move. It will of course be largely “not surprising” but it will be unpredictable from a timing viewpoint, even though we know about the potential of something happening.\r\n\r\nRight now, given all the geopolitical events in play around the world the markets are complacent. All the U.S. markets are concerned about are 401K valuations and returns, stock valuations mean feck all; we are on the brink once again in my opinion… (RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT).\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>What about China being declared a currency manipulator, now that they failed to intervene effectively with North Korea?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about China getting huge trade restrictions placed upon them by the U.S.?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea dropping an ICBN on Japan… by mistake or intentionally?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea taking aim on the continental United States?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about the Russian / U.S. diplomatic expulsion tit for tat getting out of control spilling over into troubles in the “Old Soviet Block?</li>\r\n 	<li>What happens if the Iran / U.S. nuclear deal blows up?</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP has sided with Saudi Arabia over the Qatar terrorism claims. What would happen if this dispute escalates and unsettles stability in the region and subsequently OIL production?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have only highlighted US based geopolitical related issues, as usually these would affect all markets to varying degrees. The chances of something happening could be 50-50 from my perspective, but who knows. I have ignored all the investigations and enquiries that shadow the TRUMP administration, these can just flare up at any time without warning, a tweet could kick it off.\r\n\r\nSo; what am I saying?\r\n\r\nJust be on your toes if you are trading over the next three or four weeks. Many traders are away. Many traders simply do not trade the summer.\r\n\r\nMost risks are similar to what we have every summer…  geopolitical. There are more flare up zones than the ones I have listed above, but I do feel that those areas with a TRUMP involvement are more at risk.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective as I have written earlier we are in the throes of a transition. There are entry “Gifts” as I call them on the horizon. Grab them; the EUR/USD in particular, but hold with wider stops than usual to allow for the very thin trading conditions with lower liquidity than usual.\r\n\r\nTake care, back on September 3rd.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #144 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 6th August 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9836-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-08-05 07:33:54', '2017-08-05 12:33:54', '', 9836, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9836-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
