<ol>
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
Welcome to the month of March.

The name of the month may have changed but the geopolitical and economic concerns that could send the FX market into either a tailspin or the ultimate short squeeze are still hanging over us like the “Sword of Damocles”.
<ul>
 	<li>ITALIAN ELECTIONS – COALITION PARTNERS UNCERTAINTY</li>
 	<li>GERMANY - SPD PARTY VOTES ON COALITION DEAL with CDU</li>
 	<li>BREXIT – EU &amp; UK IN GAME OF “HIGH STAKES CHICKEN”</li>
 	<li>TRUMP – KICKING OFF A GLOBAL TRADE WAR</li>
 	<li>JEROME POWELL – FED RATE HIKES in 201</li>
 	<li>US 10YR YIELDS if BREAK THROUGH 3% sets up 4.5%</li>
 	<li>BOJ – CHANGE IN MONETARY POLICY RE QQE in 2019?</li>
</ul>
Happy days... It’s all good fun and it ensures that we remain vigilant whilst staring at our trading screens.

I have often said jokingly to friends that trading Forex one has to “Rub your tummy and scratch your head both at the same time” just to keep up at times, and what fascinates me most about trading currencies is that when you look at the list above, some are currency positive, some are currency negative. It is the inter-market reactions and correlations that keep you on your toes. Even more so at the moment as many correlations are “off” and correlations “do matter” when trading currencies.

So, it looks like there will be some fun ahead this week and when you add into the mix a full range of economic data releases as well, such as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, ECB Press Conference and Policy decisions, BOJ, RBA and BOC interest rate decisions and Central Bank statements, plus CAD jobs and Trade Balance and AUD Retail Sales, GDP and Trade Balance, it is set up to be a week of potential volatility.

Let me make a bit of an understatement.... this week is a big week for data and reactions to geopolitical events.... no kidding!

If you are new to the FX market, this week could be one to sit back and merely just observe the price action.

Finally, in this section...

I think that in the last 12 months I have written or mentioned crypto currencies only once and that was in section 5, which only PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers see. I was asked a question during the week as to why I do not talk about them?

My answer is very easy and clear.

Until they are fully regulated and safe to trade, I am not interested.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span><strong> </strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>BREXIT AT A “MEXICAN STANDOFF”</strong></span></p>
Now...

Without looking like I have read the book “THE ART OF THE DEAL”, I have to say that UK Prime Minister May’s fourth “APRES BREXIT” speech last Friday ticked lots of the boxes. Whilst the speech was just as much a speech to appeal to Conservative Party unity, it was also conciliatory for the EU in that she did NOT threaten to stamp her feet and walk away.

Whether you rate Theresa May’s leadership or not, the speech hit every note that needed to be hit. She has to do this in my opinion.... why?

Nothing new here I’m afraid, it’s all to do with BREXIT CONTAGION.

The facts are very simple. The EU has as much, if not some would say, more to lose than the UK when the BREXIT finally happens.

Keeping this very simple and straightforward, both the UK and the EU have lots to lose if they do not maintain equitable trade relations.

If the BREXIT agreement is seen as a “GOOD DEAL” to leave the EU, the fear from the EU is that the current EU27 (the number of countries currently members of the EUROPEAN UNION), could reduce to the EU25 or EU22... pick your own number.

The EU negotiating team led my Michel Barnier (Presently French Politician, ex. European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services 2010-2014) and supported by the likes of Donald Tusk (currently President of the European council and ex. Prime Minister of Poland) and Jean Claude Junker (President of the European commission and Luxembourg politician), are maintaining a HARD-RED LINE to demonstrate that, leaving the EU should be no “Bed of Roses”.

The simple facts are though, from my perspective that since the vote was taken via referendum to leave the EU by the UK voters in June 2016, very little appears to have happened by way of actually leaving.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/BREXIT-TIMELINE-03032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11071" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/BREXIT-TIMELINE-03032018-985x1024.png" alt="" width="985" height="1024" /></a>

From the chart above, basically following the trigger of Article 50 in March 2017 (a year ago) from my perspective it’s been a game of “HIGH STAKES CHICKEN” and a “MEXICAN STANDOFF” has taking hold. Neither side after stating their positions has really budged. You have to bear in mind, politicians rarely answer questions they state positions and all the major negotiators in the BREXIT from both sides are politicians at source.

In the past week both sides have literally regurgitated their positions under the pretext of breaking speeches important to the BREXIT negotiations.

Will the negotiators meet the October deadline this year for a deal to be ratified by the EU27? The UK BREXIT date is 29<sup>th</sup> March 2019 at 23.00 CET.

OK, so what has been done apart from both sides expelling a lot of hot air?

The EU Withdrawal Bill, which is intended to convert all existing EU laws into UK law to ensure there are no gaps in legislation on BREXIT day, has had two readings in the House of Commons and passed, however, it is now in the House of Lords who have said basically that it needs to be re-written!

So that's not much progress at all unless the re-writes can find support back in front of MP’s when it is pushed back and amended. It will require a commons committee to co-ordinate amendments. This will make it close to deadline day for signing into law, assuming that the “Lords” like the new wording and can ratify the paper on time and not create delays!

The sticking points seem to be only: -

&nbsp;
<ol>
 	<li>CITIZENS RIGHTS - The ECJ (The European Court of Justice):It’s all about the role it plays in protecting the rights of EU citizens living and working in the UK following BREXIT. The hardline BREXIT MP’s say that regaining sovereignty means removing the UK from the meddling by EU judges. The UK has the same issues for British ex pats living around the EU.

This is a biggie. The EU does not want the UK meddling in its courts and vice-versa.</li>
 	<li>The IRISH BORDER:Maybe a little naïve on my part but I thought this would not be a problem when heads were smacked together. I thought “Take a look at Switzerland”; which is not in the EU, you can drive in and out of Switzerland from Germany, France or Italy. There are no hard borders. Am I over simplifying this issue?

The trade agreement with Switzerland accommodates NO HARD BORDER.</li>
 	<li>The DIVORCE BILL:The settlement amount to be paid by the UK to exit the EU has varied tremendously depending upon who is talking at the time and from which side of the negotiating table. It is now believed to be in the region €60 Billion (£50 Billion).

There are many people who say “BOLLOCKS, the UK has paid enough just walk away”. I hear these comments but from the UK government perspective, the BREXIT bill is really the price to pay for a future trade deal. From the EU perspective it is all about settling past debts (EU Staff pension, loan guarantees and aid scheme contributions such as Syrian refugees etc.)</li>
 	<li>TRADE DEAL &amp; THE CUSTOMS UNION:This is at the centre of the debate at the moment the UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn wants a customs union. This basically would keep the UK in a “FREE TRADE ZONE”. Internally, the “zone” is free of tariffs, which are only charged at the “zones” point of entry.

By the letter, as far as I can see BREXIT = leaving the customs union. I therefore cannot understand how in the name of sanity Corbyn can adopt such a stance without going against the “will” of the people? On top of this minor point... the EU would view this as pure cherry picking and frankly unrealistic, more like political posturing than anything else.

Theresa May outlined a proposal last Friday on trade, confirming the exit of the customs union but proposed having an associate status to charge and forward EU receipts and add any UK costs as items enter the ”zone”. Hmmn...Jeremy Corbyn revisited?

This is a massive area not just to get an agreement, but jobs and manufacturing businesses in both the UK and EU rest on this outcome. This will require huge debate between the UK and EU negotiators.</li>
</ol>
Now, there may be more sticking points, but these are the 4 that continue to resonate with me over and over again vis-à-vis the BREXIT negotiations.

Obviously, the UK position is to “Cherry Pick” and the EU position is to ensure the UK does not.

The next deadline is October this year, when there is a deadline for the deal to be completed.

I still have my doubts that this timeline can be agreed. The UK will want a blanket agreement in order that it can have some flexibility in the future, to deal with potential one-off cases that could be missed during the negotiations. The EU has Brussels; Brussels is non-elected, full of expense drive bureaucrats, who’s existence is justified and possibly measured on how many i’s and t’s can be dotted and crossed.

We appear to have a “MEXICAN STANDOFF” both sides are more than happy to state their positions. As mentioned earlier, this is what politicians do. Whilst this can be viewing as amusing to some people, the clock is ticking away in the background.

Obviously, both sides will yield some ground in order to get an agreement, what the final draft looks like, who knows at this stage.

From a trading perspective the continued uncertainty is weighing on the GBP but not EUR, which I admit surprises me a little. As I have said of late cross-rates offer the best opportunities and given TRUMP’s latest moves on tariffs, maybe staying away from the USD is also not a bad idea!

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="3">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
<strong> <a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/TCHART-03032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11078" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/TCHART-03032018-1024x894.png" alt="" width="1024" height="894" /></a></strong>

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="4">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>

(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PS-SUMMARY-03032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11077" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PS-SUMMARY-03032018-1024x869.png" alt="" width="1024" height="869" /></a>

You can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 are roughly as follows: -

GBP £90 per month
EUR €100 per month
USD $120 per month
JPY 12,700 per month
AUD $150 per month

This represents a great value way to subscribe…  and a great RISK / REWARD!

Moving on...

<a href="mailto:d*****@gmail.com">d*****@gmail.com</a> has won the monthly draw for a FREE 30-DAY subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE. By the time this blog is posted hopefully he or she will be fully equipped with all the supporting data and ready to receive!

Still more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE this week...
<p style="text-align: center;">PREMIUM SERVICE – FEBRUARY 2108:
The PREMIUM SERVICE generated a total of 2,414 net pips, taking the year to date number to 3,892 pips.
78% of trades in February made $$$
22% of trades in February lost $$$
Year to date it's a 74% / 26% ratio
In comparison to 2017, the PREMIUM SERVICE is 3,145 pips ahead of the year to date performance at the same time.</p>
The spreadsheet below shows you the potential earnings that were made in February and the year to date based upon being a trader who trades single or 5 lots of either MICRO, MINI or STANDARD size.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PREMIUM-SERVICE-PERF.-JAN-FEB-2018.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11065" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PREMIUM-SERVICE-PERF.-JAN-FEB-2018-1024x829.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="829" /></a>

As you can see from the spreadsheet above ALL types of traders even single micro lot traders would be positive after the first two months this year. Being realistic, I would NOT expect single micro lot traders to benefit much in a full year, but it does show that risking just $0.10 per trade can generate an income.

From a longer-term perspective my thoughts are along the lines that from 5 x micro lots upwards, risking a minimum of just $0.50 cents per trade will generate a small positive income after costs. There are obviously no guarantees with income, I cannot guarantee this and as you know you trade with RISK. However, with managed RISK there are opportunities for micro lot traders.

Moving up the scale single mini lot ($1.00 per trade) traders and above have since 2014 been able to generate a net income after costs have been applied and although there are still RISKS, again with RISK MANAGEMENT these RISKS can be managed.

The bottom line is that since 2014 the PREMIUM SERVICE has been profitable.

Therefore...

I am obviously delighted, over the moon, a happy bunny, you use whatever phrase or terminology you prefer but to say that 2018 has started with a bang is the second understatement I have made in this blog so far!

You can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.

&nbsp;

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="5">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)

<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>

FEBRUARY 2018 net PIP TOTAL: 2,414 pips
YEAR TO DATE net PIP TOTAL: 3.892 pips
P+L trades ratio monthly: 78% / 22%
P+L trades year to date ratio: 74% / 26%

All trade styles made pips in February and year to date all trade styles are now positive. Next month at the end of Q1 it is my intention to review the mix of trade styles as a percentage of the total.

You would have noticed that recently, I have placed trade set ups with both FUNDAMENTAL and MOMENTUM trade options. I am hoping that this will help the subscribers who have requested more flexibility with RISK parameters when adding up all the stop loss contingent liabilities. I am sure you will understand this does increase my RISK, so I cannot do this across the board.

Looking back over February as a month. The short-term trades (FLASH and RADAR) suffered by way of quantity of trades, I am aware of this and hopefully this will level out as we move forward. My initial goals are obviously RISK, then $$$ and pips, trade style mix is a little down my list.

Looking back through my excel spreadsheets, the vast majority of trades in February that made pips involved the JPY, NZD and AUD; there were also a number of GBP cross rate trades as well.

&nbsp;

<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>

&nbsp;

At the beginning of this blog I listed the following geopolitical event RISK hanging over the market at the moment: -
<ul>
 	<li>ITALIAN ELECTIONS – COALITION PARTNERS UNCERTAINTY</li>
 	<li>GERMANY - SPD PARTY VOTES ON COALITION DEAL with CDU</li>
 	<li>BREXIT – EU &amp; UK IN GAME OF “HIGH STAKES CHICKEN”</li>
 	<li>TRUMP – KICKING OFF A GLOBAL TRADE WAR</li>
 	<li>JEROME POWELL – FED RATE HIKES in 2018</li>
 	<li>S. 10YR YIELDS if BREAK THROUGH 3% sets up 4.5%</li>
 	<li>BOJ – CHANGE IN MONETARY POLICY RE QQE in 2019?</li>
</ul>
PLUS:
<ul>
 	<li>AUD - RBA Rate Statement, Retail Sales, Trade Balance, Current Account and GDP.</li>
 	<li>GBP – Annual Budget Release, Services PMi and Manufacturing Production.</li>
 	<li>USD – ADP, NFP and Average Hourly Earnings.</li>
 	<li>CAD – BOC Rate Statement and Employment Data.</li>
 	<li>JPY – BOJ Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference.</li>
 	<li>EUR – Rate Statement and Press Conference.</li>
</ul>
It's a big week; without doubt the biggest so far this year.

There are no changes to my overall FUNDAMENTAL / MACRO THOUGHTS for 2018.

I am still bearish the NZD although the AUD/NZD cross rate selling is really affecting my NZD trades at the moment.

Coming out from the background, I am now openly bullish the JPY currency and I am actively shorting JPY pairs across the board. This move is greatly enhanced following Kuroda’s announcement that the BOJ will start to normalize monetary policy next year.

The AUD is trading very heavy and there is a strong chance of a larger move lower. This is reinforced with the uncertainty surrounding TRUMP’s tariff promises. This week we should get some flesh on the bone of this policy.

The GBP is on hold as I mentioned last week. I do see the GBP moving much higher, but I think that until we see a BREXIT definitive agreement on policy, we are at risk of 100-200 pip drop in the GBP/USD with a knock-on effect into the GBP cross rate pairs.

The EUR is annoying. It is very well supported, and I am really annoyed with myself that I took my long trade with the entry of 1.2160 off the table. It was a well thought out level, the pair bounced of lows of 1.2154! ... argh!!!!  For now, I will wait until after the ECB before returning to more EUR trades.

With regards to this week, obviously RISK is higher than normal. I will slow down on set ups and starting early in the week I will be reducing RISK across the board.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/SENTIMENT-03032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11079" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/SENTIMENT-03032018-788x1024.png" alt="" width="788" height="1024" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>

<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/ECON-DATA-03032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11080" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/ECON-DATA-03032018-1024x948.png" alt="" width="1024" height="948" /></a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>

There are only two events that have my attention this week.

<u>AUD: Current Account, Retail Sales, RBA Rate Statement and Trade Balance.</u>

It's a big week for the AUD.

Trade wise. I am holding and will hold through these events short AUD/USD and long AUD/NZD. I am therefore basically hedged.

<u>CAD: BOC Rate Decision and Jobs Data.</u>

I want to be bearish the USD/CAD but with NAFTA and now TRUMP Tariffs on imports hanging over the CAD currency, it may be that I will have to wait a little longer. With these items hanging over the BOC I cannot see with the attached uncertainty that Stephen Poloz will be making changes to the interest rate. The actual statement will be read closely, and the employment numbers will be noted.

Poloz has openly stated that moves in the CAD are data dependent. I would add that any interest rate move is also TRUMP dependent.

It is my intention to have NO CAD exposure ahead of these news items.

<u>USD: ADP and NFP Employment Data.</u>

I think that I am adding these news events because one feels as a Forex trader that the biggest monthly news event (NFP) should always be noted. I do not think that this set of jobs data will be vital to influence whether or not the FED raises U.S. interest rates later this month or not, but I do think that it will be important to the voting members of the FED from a forward-looking sentiment perspective.

I don't intend to trade NFP with new positions, just manage existing.

<u>EUR: ECB Rate Statement and Press Conference.</u>

Will Mario Draghi open up and offer more detail about the future tapering and interest rate normalization policies for the EUROZONE moving forward?

Maybe, but probably not, I do NOT expect any forward guidance at all.

I suspect that he will do whatever he needs to do NOT to rock the boat. He will get the same old questions starting with, when, how much and what happens if? He will swat these away as if holding a tennis racquet chasing a wasp around a picnic table.

It is however, the jewel in the crown vis-à-vis the economic data releases this coming week. It can always be a market mover.

I will have no EUR exposure entering this news event.

&nbsp;

<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>

I have mentioned this a couple of times already. This is a big week on the horizon, and frankly, to trade this coming week with any gusto is in my mind being bloody stupid.

Add together the list of geopolitical events and the economic data releases and it does NOT take a rocket scientist to evaluate the result that to be sidelined may be the best option. My brain is telling me that the market may be more news driven this week than by any fundamentals via economic data and the technical set ups may be ignored in times of high volatility.

Therefore, my market approach will be caution and restrain.

<u>
</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>

In the background this week, I will be working hard on setting goals / objectives into my TRADE PALN to accommodate my fundamental thoughts moving into Q2 and Q3.

The PREMIUM SERVICE is well ahead of its “pip” objective for 2018 and the first two days of March has also produced +488 pips. I do not intend to sit back but I want to have my TRADE PLAN spot on in my mind and on paper to take into account the very recent geopolitical events.
<ol>
 	<li>Add NZD trades when appropriate.
I want to add back NZD/USD and NZD/JPY trades.</li>
 	<li>Plan my targets and approach to the JPY following the BOJ announcement regarding QQE and interest rate normalization. This may need to wait until after the BOJ meeting.
I want to have a plan based now solely on USD/JPY but also some of the cross-rate JPY pairs.</li>
 	<li>Formulate strategies with: -
EUR long for Q2.
AUD short from now through Q2.
CAD short following BOC meeting from now through Q2.</li>
</ol>
<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>

<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LIVE-TRADES-03032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11082" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LIVE-TRADES-03032018-662x1024.png" alt="" width="662" height="1024" /></a>

<u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LIMIT-ORDERS-03032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11081" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LIMIT-ORDERS-03032018-718x1024.png" alt="" width="718" height="1024" /></a>

<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>

Nothing to report this week. All very quiet on the broker front apart from the continued explosion into trading “Crypto” currencies.

<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="6">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,

As usual…

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Twitter: @ThePremService

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>

BLOG VERSION: #168 PREMIUM SERVICE
DATE: 3<sup>rd</sup> March 2018

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