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(11432, 1, '2018-04-07 07:51:07', '2018-04-07 12:51:07', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> THE FIRST SHOT:</span>\r\n<u></u></strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>1.1. INTRODUCTION:</u><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nOver the past two or three weeks my daily routine has altered slightly, in the sense that I am now waiting on a TRUMP tweet for direction rather than placing as much emphasis on my LEAD INDICATORS as I used to do. I have written quite a bit of late about how the equity markets have become very news driven and economics have taken what can be called a back seat.\r\n\r\nIn response the FX market has been fairly tame in its response. From time to time it “Huff ‘n Puffs” but if truth be told it is sporadic volatility.\r\n\r\nThis change causes me a problem. I am a really big believer in Central Bank policy really controlling the FX reactions longer term. As a FUNDAMENTAL trader this is central to my markets ideals, approaches, trading timeframes, my TRADE MANAGEMENT, POSITION SIZING and is at the heart of my TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nI have to write about TRUMP and CHINA this week in “THE SOAPBOX”, even my keyboard was ready for that topic.\r\n\r\nNext week, however, I intend to write about “THE MARKET NERVES”, because I believe that the markets are nervous.\r\n\r\nIn addition, starting this week, and hopefully each week moving forward, I am going to add into the blog an EDUCATIONAL article. I used to do this each week a couple of years ago and used these articles to build up my EDUCATION section for my PREMIUM subscribers (See section 4).\r\n\r\nAs mentioned last week, my website is going to have a facelift carried out and behind the scenes for most readers of this blog, THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM area for subscribers will also be upgraded. Part of this upgrade includes the TRADER EDUCATION area.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>1.2. THE SOAPBOX:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">CHINA / U.S. TRADE: THE HEAT IS ON</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></p>\r\nThe daily TRUMP TWEET that I see around 7AM AST (6:00AM EST) has now taken on more importance in my diary than the forex factory calendar for US and Canadian Economic data releases that occur at 8:30AM EST.\r\n\r\nI wrote in my blog of March 10th, 2018 about TRUMP controlling the news narrative with the title of my blog being called: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">IS TRUMP THE 2018 VERSION OF ELLIOT CARVER?\r\n(Elliot Carver being a James Bond movie fictional character)</p>\r\nThere is absolutely no doubt in my mind (and I have not had a drink before writing this), that TRUMP is smarter than most of us give him credit for. You just have to put up with his clumsy delivery and poor communication, BUT, this is all part of the approach. No-one can be this inept.\r\n\r\nTRUMP has the opportunity in front of him to make the history books with his upcoming face to face meeting with Kim Jong Un and the trade tariff negotiations with China, which, if successful, could become the “Blueprint” for all U.S. trade negotiations moving forward.\r\n\r\nMy observations are though that whilst TRUMP was initially seen as unpredictable when he became President, because of his style, this unpredictability is actually very predictable.\r\n\r\nThe issue for me is that the U.S. media is inept in getting to the bottom of the issues at hand. They prefer to create news rather than address the issues factually. U.S. media is so biased it plays into TRUMPS attacks of “FAKE NEWS”.\r\n\r\nMoving back on point...\r\n\r\nAfter giving the media time to develop their own wild speculations the TRUMP tweet or comments are walked back. Then the actual result via reconciliation and, not as much negotiation as we think, is a watered-down version of the original. We have seen this with steel negotiations and it’s been used as a ploy with the NAFTA negotiations. We now have a threat to cancel NAFTA unless a deal in principal is completed this coming week in Peru.\r\n\r\nThis “ART OF THE DEAL” approach is now seen for what it is, or as it should be seen.\r\n\r\nWith regards to China....\r\n\r\nOn Wednesday last week the market was in FEAR mode that TRADE WARS were underway as CHINA listed out its areas of tariff retaliation. It was a measured move and like the U.S. it came with a delay of implementation because the Chinese want to talk and negotiate just like the TRUMP administration. By Wednesday afternoon, the TRUMP administration had convinced the markets discussions were going to take place and that TRADE WARS were a long, long way away. We saw a rebound in equities that were on their knees first thing and by the end of the day Wall Street ended positive. This positive picture carried on through the following Asian, European and Thursday’s U.S. sessions.\r\n\r\nThen Thursday night, TRUMP released a statement stating that he wants an investigation by the USTR to look into adding a further $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods because of their unfair retaliation. At the same time, he says that he is happy to negotiate.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was immediate JPY strength and the AUD weakness.\r\n\r\nLarry Kudlow, ex CNBC has been thrown under the bus within 48 hours of his attempts to calm the markets down by walking back the threat of TRADE WARS. He now becomes TRUMP’s latest staff victim, and his credibility must be shot.\r\n\r\nOn Friday morning last week, Kudlow was torn into by Johnathan Ferro on BLOOOMBERG. Kudlow tried to put his point across, in fairness to him, but I wonder was there history there between ex. CNBC and BLOOMBERG. It was a shouting match as usual with people talking over each other. Basically, Kudlow said nothing has been done with China, no agreements made, nothing discussed it’s all up for negotiation.\r\n\r\nIt’s all confusion...\r\n\r\nKudlow (Economic Advisor) says “There’s no TRADE WAR here, nothing has been agreed or negotiated”\r\n\r\nLess than two hours later...\r\n\r\nStephen Mnuchin (Secretary of the Treasury) says “It is a TRADE WAR”\r\n\r\nPure TRUMP... confuse, mixed messages, allow for walk backs....\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nAre we in a “tit for tat” mode?\r\n\r\nAs I see it, China is a bit more savvy than the U.S. media when seeing through TRUMP and his antics.\r\n\r\nThere is plenty of commentary about how TRUMP holds all the cards. I don’t see it all one way. China holds a great deal of US debt for one thing. I am not saying that I disagree with the overview of what TRUMP is trying to achieve. I think trade with China has been all one way, but China will NOT be the rollovers that TRUMP maybe thinks they will be.\r\n\r\nTrading this geopolitical event is pretty straightforward in my eyes as long as uncertainty persists its short AUD and long JPY currencies.\r\n\r\nMy favourite pairs to look at would be: -\r\n\r\nSHORT:    AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD, USD/JPY\r\nLONG:      EUR/AUD\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> THIS WEEKS IMPORTANT TRADE INFORMATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1. ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>\r\n</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11411\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"790\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.2. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-DATA-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11412\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-DATA-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"663\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><u>2.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"721\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.4. USD OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing much has changed from last week. We remain in the TRUMP downtrend and remain range bound as seen on the attached chart.\r\n\r\nLonger timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.\r\n\r\nInitially, the recent lows of 88.20 need to be tested first and obviously USD bears have this level firmly set in their sights.\r\n\r\nThe BULLS need to take out the 38% Fibonacci retracement at 90.91 (basically 91.00) in my opinion as absolute minimum to get me thinking that the “KING $ is back”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11424\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.5. USD TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week...\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWe have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2240 to 1.2480.  The latter range has been tested twice, but we are just range bound.\r\n\r\nThis pair is waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to move it one way or the other. Sadly, NFP did not provide the catalyst required.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT EUR/USD CHART)\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nOverhead resistance is at 1.4240. There are lots of buyers ready to cap moves higher here. It will take an excellent piece of BREXIT data to thrust through that level.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe upward sloping trend line has supported recent USD strength and last Friday’s candle is a bullish engulfing candle. In the past these have NOT produced the onwards moves that technical traders expect. Maybe this one will be different. If so, a re-test of 1.4200 could be on the cards this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT GBP/USD CHART)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nWe are trending lower and this pair is suffering under the effects of CHINA TRADE WARS with the U.S.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWe have seen this pair move sideways over the past week or so. I see this as just consolidation of the move lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI have found this pair difficult to read. At times, I feel it could easily spike to 0.7700 as well as just as easily fall to 0.7500.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe doji style of candle for the last day of last week both reflects and confirms my thoughts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT AUD/USD CHART)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7350.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT NZD/USD CHART)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThe Head and Shoulders pattern is in play. The measured move is to 1.2510. It is only invalidated should we see a break back above 1.2930.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT USD/CAD CHART)\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThere is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850. I am a little reluctant to aggressively trade the CHF given its flight to safety and neutrality attraction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWe are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT USD/CHF CHART)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nWe are still in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHowever, we have spiked to trend line resistance around 107.00. A short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT USD/JPY CHART)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT EXCEL SPREADSHEET)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 is roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGo to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong>\r\n</strong><strong>TRADER EDUCATION:\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMost weeks, I will add an article in this section based on an area of importance in trading that I feel should be documented. It may not resonate with all traders but for some I hope they find it useful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FACTORS FOR\r\nDETERMINING POSITION SIZES</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHow do you determine the size of your trade?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDo you have one fixed size for every trade you make with your favourite pair?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhilst trading the same position size for every trade sounds simple regardless of what pair you are trading, there are more factors to take into consideration.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBelow, I am going to give you three factors that I consider before placing a trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> MONEY MANAGEMENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, this is the most important factor to consider. How much are you going to RISK?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPersonally, I operate to a guideline in my TRADE PLAN that no single trade should RISK more than 3% of my trading account.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAs a “Newbie” trader there are many other things you can do for effective MONEY MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you are a new FX trader, you could be prone to mistakes and that is 100% normal. Therefore, being conservative with your approach will give you the time required to understand what you are doing and the effects of what you are doing with regards to the balance on your broker account.\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>2. VOLATILITY:</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe FX market is a strange animal. The way the market behaves and reacts to events changes from time to time.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIt is very easy to be caught out.\r\n\r\nAt times your currency pair can be trading steady in a range in the desired direction and as such you feel inclined to maybe increase you existing position or add another trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOn other occasions, the markets can be quite fast moving, maybe around a major economic data release, or on a breaking news event.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAs a “Newbie” these are the times to keep your position size unchanged.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTrading Forex you have leverage and whilst this leverage can be good news if you are generating a nice profitable position, leverage can also be your enemy as badly positioned trades can grow losses very quickly.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CONVICTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThere are some trades that you are 100% comfortable with and there are others that seem OK, but you prefer to be more cautious with your conviction until the trade starts to gather momentum based on current sentiment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe FX market lays out many “Elephant Traps” for the retail trader.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFor example, a breakout out of a trading range can be viewed as a trade opportunity based upon the breakout move being directional. However, the breakout move could be a false breakout, perhaps just an extended STOP LOSS run.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nA greater CONVICTION trade would be the same move but accompanied with a major news event that supports the move in the same direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong>4</strong>. <strong>DIFFERENT CURRENCY PAIRS / DIFFERENT POSITION SIZES:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nSaving the best for last.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMONEY MANAGEMENT I believe is crucial to TRADING LONGEVITY and trading success. In the Forex market there are hundreds of possible trading pairs, some are very popular, and some are what are termed “Exotic” because they are not traded as often.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLIQUIDITY is important when trading. We need good money flows through a currency pair to ensure good two-way action and a battle between buyers and sellers. This gives moves that are more consistent.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWith exotic pairs, the money flows are not as great and bigger institutional orders can create volatility that cannot be sustained and move price that creates issues for retail traders vis-à-vis STOP LOSS positioning.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTherefore, it makes sense from my perspective to adopt position sizes based on the usual liquidity a currency pair would see on a daily basis.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe currency pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP attract greater money flows than AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, I would categorize these pairs as LEVEL 1 pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJPY crosses and EUR/CHF, I call these LEVEL 2 pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/NZD, CAD/CHF, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF, USD/SEK, and USD/NOK, I would call these LEVEL 3 pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/MXN, USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, EUR/NOK. GBP/SEK, all others and there are far too many to list here. I would call these LEVEL 4 pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI would apply something like the following factor to a maximum position size.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLEVEL 1 pairs = 100%\r\n\r\nLEVEL 2 pairs = 50%\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLEVEL 3 pairs = 25%\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLEVEL 4 pairs = 10%\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM ONLY)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am glad to have NFP out of the way. As always, I never get it 100% right, I do really believe that it is a lottery and no matter what data you have ahead of news release and no matter who you listen to, NO ONE HAS A CLUE about the numbers, it all just a guess.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNext month, my plan is that I will be “DARK” ahead of the data and not back on line until lunchtime after the data has been released!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLast week, profitable trades emanated from CHINA TRADE WARS and NAFTA related currencies such as AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD and USD/CAD.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMoving forward I see these and JPY pairs as my “go to” currency pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW I WILL TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nStarting this week, I have 16 x LIVE trades and 11 x LIMIT ORDERS in place. I would not expect this overall number to increase, if anything given the geopolitical tensions they may reduce this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI want to get behind a position ahead of NAFTA. It looks like TRUMP wants a deal in principle from talks this week in Lima, Peru and therefore I want to have a couple more CAD trades LIVE for that announcement. Based on comments from Trudeau (Canadian Prime Minister) ongoing talks are positive for a positive conclusion.\r\n\r\nLIVE TRADE: FUN909 EUR/CAD\r\n\r\nLIMIT ORDERS: FUN906 AUD/CAD, FUN907 NZD/CAD, POS766 USD/CAD\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am also looking at JPY with some detail this week on the back of safety and market uncertainty.\r\n\r\nLIVE TRADES: FT888 EUR/JPY, FUN908 EUR/JPY\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLIMIT ORDER: FUN900 USD/JPY\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn addition, given the CHINA TRADE WARS, I want to look more aggressively at the AUD currency. At the moment I am long GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD cross rates. I want to add AUD/JPY trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. CROSS-RATES &amp; EMERGING MARKETS PAIRS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\nOver the past week the USD majors suffered from range trading and therefore as a result of that the cross-rate and EM pairs have really been mostly treading water.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. CROSS RATES</u>:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNothing much by way of sentiment has changed since last week in my opinion. We are still living day to day on TRUMP tweets and swinging between RISK ON and RISK OFF.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIt is quite dizzy at the moment as there is no DIRECTION in my opinion. We are going nowhere fast. I see a lot of flashing lights on my screens but not a lot is actually going on for most of the time.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe only CROSS RATES that seems to be perky are AUD crosses directly linked to RISK OFF.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3.2. EMERGING MARKETS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\nBeing honest I have only had eyes on the USD/MXN over recent sessions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMoving forward this is a pair that I think it would be great to be short sooner rather than later ahead of any NAFTA agreement.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIt is on my RADAR.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWith regards to the other EM currency pairs, given the current flip flopping that I am witnessing with the USD, my position has not alerted from last week. I will wait on the sidelines to get clear direction based on a true sentiment shift.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThere has been some political and economic EM news that has caught my eye:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Indian Central Bank slash inflation projections.</li>\r\n 	<li>South Korean President Park sentenced to prison for 24 years.</li>\r\n 	<li>Early elections in Malaysia</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI know that a few of you are more clued in on this area than me because of where you live.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective the liquidity of the vast majority of EM pairs is so poor and whether they are tradeable with most brokers is debatable.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNot wanting to be disrespectful to anyone but in this section, I believe that I can only deal with EM currencies that most brokers would have available.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHere is my list of EM pairs that I will cover in this section:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/MXN, USD/ZAR, USD/TRY and USD/PLN\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am questioning what is my macro plan?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThree weeks ago, it was a no nonsense short NZD/USD pairs, short USD/CAD, short USD/JPY and long GBP/USD.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe waters are now muddied and I am starting to question some of my ideas as having longevity through to the end of Q3.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Long GBP; I believe is a no-nonsense trade subject to BREXIT being signed off. Just the sticking point over the IRELAND and GIBRALTAR border crossings require agreement.</li>\r\n 	<li>Short USD/CAD (Long CAD); I am not 100% fixed on this now, given the recent run of mixed data, I would say there has been more poor data than good data of late.</li>\r\n 	<li>Short NZD; I cannot recall when I have not been bearish the Kiwi dollar. Of late it has been very resilient. I suspect mainly due to the cross-rate selling of the AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\nI had thought that with CHINA TRADE issues, the NZD currency would suffer as much as the AUD. But this has NOT been the case.\r\n\r\nThe NZD resilience has already made me review my AUD/NZD core position. Economically the NZD data has been much betterso far than I had anticipated, since the new Labour Government led coalition assumed power. New RBNZ Governor, Adrian Orr has yet to launch himself on the market. His arrival in charge at the RBNZ has been very low key.\r\n\r\nI am NOT afraid to short the NZD, as I believe it is over-valued, but my NZD trades are not paying off as I thought they would have by now.</li>\r\n 	<li>Short XXX/JPY pairs; this is a trade I never thought in 2018 could be a go to trade. As long as we have market uncertainties with TRADE WARS and market nervousness, which I believe we have, the flight to safety trade using the JPY will remain in vogue.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNext week, I will be writing about by MARKET OVERVIEW and how it has developed in 2018, now that Q1 has completed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe USD is mixed, sentiment is not confirmed and therefore market direction is a chop fest. This is not a great backdrop for a long-term trader to operate. This year, I have rarely allowed trades to develop because of market flip flopping. Whilst I am happy to accept this volatility without sounding silly, it’s not GOOD VOLATILITY. By that I mean it’s just chop and not chop with a directional trade to follow.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe USD “SENTIMENT CHART” has not changed much from last week. It is not aligned and therefore this is one good reason why the markets are difficult at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT MARKET SENTIMENT CHART)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNothing to add this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @weeklyfxpremium\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #173 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 7<sup>th</sup>April 2018\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'CHINA / U.S. TRADE: THE HEAT IS ON', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '11431-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-07 07:51:07', '2018-04-07 12:51:07', '', 11431, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/11431-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(11433, 1, '2018-04-07 08:33:39', '2018-04-07 13:33:39', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> THE FIRST SHOT:</span>\r\n<u></u></strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>1.1. INTRODUCTION:</u><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nOver the past two or three weeks my daily routine has altered slightly, in the sense that I am now waiting on a TRUMP tweet for direction rather than placing as much emphasis on my LEAD INDICATORS as I used to do. I have written quite a bit of late about how the equity markets have become very news driven and economics have taken what can be called a back seat.\r\n\r\nIn response the FX market has been fairly tame in its response. From time to time it “Huff ‘n Puffs” but if truth be told it is sporadic volatility.\r\n\r\nThis change causes me a problem. I am a really big believer in Central Bank policy really controlling the FX reactions longer term. As a FUNDAMENTAL trader this is central to my markets ideals, approaches, trading timeframes, my TRADE MANAGEMENT, POSITION SIZING and is at the heart of my TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nI have to write about TRUMP and CHINA this week in “THE SOAPBOX”, even my keyboard was ready for that topic.\r\n\r\nNext week, however, I intend to write about “THE MARKET NERVES”, because I believe that the markets are nervous.\r\n\r\nIn addition, starting this week, and hopefully each week moving forward, I am going to add into the blog an EDUCATIONAL article. I used to do this each week a couple of years ago and used these articles to build up my EDUCATION section for my PREMIUM subscribers (See section 4).\r\n\r\nAs mentioned last week, my website is going to have a facelift carried out and behind the scenes for most readers of this blog, THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM area for subscribers will also be upgraded. Part of this upgrade includes the TRADER EDUCATION area.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>1.2. THE SOAPBOX:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">CHINA / U.S. TRADE: THE HEAT IS ON</span></strong></p>\r\nThe daily TRUMP TWEET that I see around 7AM AST (6:00AM EST) has now taken on more importance in my diary than the forex factory calendar for US and Canadian Economic data releases that occur at 8:30AM EST.\r\n\r\nI wrote in my blog of March 10th, 2018 about TRUMP controlling the news narrative with the title of my blog being called: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">IS TRUMP THE 2018 VERSION OF ELLIOT CARVER?\r\n(Elliot Carver being a James Bond movie fictional character)</p>\r\nThere is absolutely no doubt in my mind (and I have not had a drink before writing this), that TRUMP is smarter than most of us give him credit for. You just have to put up with his clumsy delivery and poor communication, BUT, this is all part of the approach. No-one can be this inept.\r\n\r\nTRUMP has the opportunity in front of him to make the history books with his upcoming face to face meeting with Kim Jong Un and the trade tariff negotiations with China, which, if successful, could become the “Blueprint” for all U.S. trade negotiations moving forward.\r\n\r\nMy observations are though that whilst TRUMP was initially seen as unpredictable when he became President, because of his style, this unpredictability is actually very predictable.\r\n\r\nThe issue for me is that the U.S. media is inept in getting to the bottom of the issues at hand. They prefer to create news rather than address the issues factually. U.S. media is so biased it plays into TRUMPS attacks of “FAKE NEWS”.\r\n\r\nMoving back on point...\r\n\r\nAfter giving the media time to develop their own wild speculations the TRUMP tweet or comments are walked back. Then the actual result via reconciliation and, not as much negotiation as we think, is a watered-down version of the original. We have seen this with steel negotiations and it’s been used as a ploy with the NAFTA negotiations. We now have a threat to cancel NAFTA unless a deal in principal is completed this coming week in Peru.\r\n\r\nThis “ART OF THE DEAL” approach is now seen for what it is, or as it should be seen.\r\n\r\nWith regards to China....\r\n\r\nOn Wednesday last week the market was in FEAR mode that TRADE WARS were underway as CHINA listed out its areas of tariff retaliation. It was a measured move and like the U.S. it came with a delay of implementation because the Chinese want to talk and negotiate just like the TRUMP administration. By Wednesday afternoon, the TRUMP administration had convinced the markets discussions were going to take place and that TRADE WARS were a long, long way away. We saw a rebound in equities that were on their knees first thing and by the end of the day Wall Street ended positive. This positive picture carried on through the following Asian, European and Thursday’s U.S. sessions.\r\n\r\nThen Thursday night, TRUMP released a statement stating that he wants an investigation by the USTR to look into adding a further $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods because of their unfair retaliation. At the same time, he says that he is happy to negotiate.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was immediate JPY strength and the AUD weakness.\r\n\r\nLarry Kudlow, ex CNBC has been thrown under the bus within 48 hours of his attempts to calm the markets down by walking back the threat of TRADE WARS. He now becomes TRUMP’s latest staff victim, and his credibility must be shot.\r\n\r\nOn Friday morning last week, Kudlow was torn into by Johnathan Ferro on BLOOOMBERG. Kudlow tried to put his point across, in fairness to him, but I wonder was there history there between ex. CNBC and BLOOMBERG. It was a shouting match as usual with people talking over each other. Basically, Kudlow said nothing has been done with China, no agreements made, nothing discussed it’s all up for negotiation.\r\n\r\nIt’s all confusion...\r\n\r\nKudlow (Economic Advisor) says “There’s no TRADE WAR here, nothing has been agreed or negotiated”\r\n\r\nLess than two hours later...\r\n\r\nStephen Mnuchin (Secretary of the Treasury) says “It is a TRADE WAR”\r\n\r\nPure TRUMP... confuse, mixed messages, allow for walk backs....\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nAre we in a “tit for tat” mode?\r\n\r\nAs I see it, China is a bit more savvy than the U.S. media when seeing through TRUMP and his antics.\r\n\r\nThere is plenty of commentary about how TRUMP holds all the cards. I don’t see it all one way. China holds a great deal of US debt for one thing. I am not saying that I disagree with the overview of what TRUMP is trying to achieve. I think trade with China has been all one way, but China will NOT be the rollovers that TRUMP maybe thinks they will be.\r\n\r\nTrading this geopolitical event is pretty straightforward in my eyes as long as uncertainty persists its short AUD and long JPY currencies.\r\n\r\nMy favourite pairs to look at would be: -\r\n\r\nSHORT:    AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD, USD/JPY\r\nLONG:      EUR/AUD\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> THIS WEEKS IMPORTANT TRADE INFORMATION:</span></strong>&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1. ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>\r\n</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11411\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"790\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.2. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-DATA-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11412\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-DATA-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"663\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><u>2.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"721\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.4. USD OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing much has changed from last week. We remain in the TRUMP downtrend and remain range bound as seen on the attached chart.\r\n\r\nLonger timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.\r\n\r\nInitially, the recent lows of 88.20 need to be tested first and obviously USD bears have this level firmly set in their sights.\r\n\r\nThe BULLS need to take out the 38% Fibonacci retracement at 90.91 (basically 91.00) in my opinion as absolute minimum to get me thinking that the “KING $ is back”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11424\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.5. USD TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week...\r\n\r\nThe Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.\r\n\r\nWe have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2240 to 1.2480.  The latter range has been tested twice, but we are just range bound.\r\n\r\nThis pair is waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to move it one way or the other. Sadly, NFP did not provide the catalyst required.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11425\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nOverhead resistance is at 1.4240. There are lots of buyers ready to cap moves higher here. It will take an excellent piece of BREXIT data to thrust through that level\r\n\r\nThe upward sloping trend line has supported recent USD strength and last Friday’s candle is a bullish engulfing candle. In the past these have NOT produced the onwards moves that technical traders expect. Maybe this one will be different. If so, a re-test of 1.4200 could be on the cards this week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11426\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nWe are trending lower and this pair is suffering under the effects of CHINA TRADE WARS with the U.S.\r\n\r\nWe have seen this pair move sideways over the past week or so. I see this as just consolidation of the move lower.\r\n\r\nI have found this pair difficult to read. At times, I feel it could easily spike to 0.7700 as well as just as easily fall to 0.7500.\r\n\r\nThe doji style of candle for the last day of last week both reflects and confirms my thoughts.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11423\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nI believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7350.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11427\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe Head and Shoulders pattern is in play. The measured move is to 1.2510. It is only invalidated should we see a break back above 1.2930.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11428\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.\r\n\r\nThere is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850. I am a little reluctant to aggressively trade the CHF given its flight to safety and neutrality attraction.\r\n\r\nWe are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11429\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nWe are still in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.\r\n\r\nHowever, we have spiked to trend line resistance around 107.00. A short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11430\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"806\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 is roughly as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…\r\n\r\nGo to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong></strong><strong>TRADER EDUCATION:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMost weeks, I will add an article in this section based on an area of importance in trading that I feel should be documented. It may not resonate with all traders but for some I hope they find it useful.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>FACTORS FOR DETERMINING POSITION SIZES</strong></span></p>\r\nHow do you determine the size of your trade?\r\n\r\nDo you have one fixed size for every trade you make with your favourite pair?\r\n\r\nWhilst trading the same position size for every trade sounds simple regardless of what pair you are trading, there are more factors to take into consideration.\r\n\r\nBelow, I am going to give you three factors that I consider before placing a trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> MONEY MANAGEMENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFrom my perspective, this is the most important factor to consider. How much are you going to RISK?\r\n\r\nPersonally, I operate to a guideline in my TRADE PLAN that no single trade should RISK more than 3% of my trading account.\r\n\r\nAs a “Newbie” trader there are many other things you can do for effective MONEY MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nIf you are a new FX trader, you could be prone to mistakes and that is 100% normal. Therefore, being conservative with your approach will give you the time required to understand what you are doing and the effects of what you are doing with regards to the balance on your broker account.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 30px;\"><strong>2. VOLATILITY:</strong></p>\r\nThe FX market is a strange animal. The way the market behaves and reacts to events changes from time to time.\r\n\r\nIt is very easy to be caught out.\r\n\r\nAt times your currency pair can be trading steady in a range in the desired direction and as such you feel inclined to maybe increase you existing position or add another trade.\r\n\r\nOn other occasions, the markets can be quite fast moving, maybe around a major economic data release, or on a breaking news event.\r\n\r\nAs a “Newbie” these are the times to keep your position size unchanged.\r\n\r\nTrading Forex you have leverage and whilst this leverage can be good news if you are generating a nice profitable position, leverage can also be your enemy as badly positioned trades can grow losses very quickly.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CONVICTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere are some trades that you are 100% comfortable with and there are others that seem OK, but you prefer to be more cautious with your conviction until the trade starts to gather momentum based on current sentiment.\r\n\r\nThe FX market lays out many “Elephant Traps” for the retail trader.\r\n\r\nFor example, a breakout out of a trading range can be viewed as a trade opportunity based upon the breakout move being directional. However, the breakout move could be a false breakout, perhaps just an extended STOP LOSS run.\r\n\r\nA greater CONVICTION trade would be the same move but accompanied with a major news event that supports the move in the same direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">4. <strong>DIFFERENT CURRENCY PAIRS / DIFFERENT POSITION SIZES:</strong><strong> </strong></p>\r\nSaving the best for last.\r\n\r\nMONEY MANAGEMENT I believe is crucial to TRADING LONGEVITY and trading success. In the Forex market there are hundreds of possible trading pairs, some are very popular, and some are what are termed “Exotic” because they are not traded as often.\r\n\r\nLIQUIDITY is important when trading. We need good money flows through a currency pair to ensure good two-way action and a battle between buyers and sellers. This gives moves that are more consistent.\r\n\r\nWith exotic pairs, the money flows are not as great and bigger institutional orders can create volatility that cannot be sustained and move price that creates issues for retail traders vis-à-vis STOP LOSS positioning.\r\n\r\nTherefore, it makes sense from my perspective to adopt position sizes based on the usual liquidity a currency pair would see on a daily basis.\r\n\r\nThe currency pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP attract greater money flows than AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, I would categorize these pairs as LEVEL 1 pairs.\r\n\r\nJPY crosses and EUR/CHF, I call these LEVEL 2 pairs.\r\n\r\nAUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/NZD, CAD/CHF, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF, USD/SEK, and USD/NOK, I would call these LEVEL 3 pairs.\r\n\r\nUSD/MXN, USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, EUR/NOK. GBP/SEK, all others and there are far too many to list here. I would call these LEVEL 4 pairs.\r\n\r\nI would apply something like the following factor to a maximum position size.\r\n\r\nLEVEL 1 pairs = 100%\r\n\r\nLEVEL 2 pairs = 50%\r\n\r\nLEVEL 3 pairs = 25%\r\n\r\nLEVEL 4 pairs = 10%\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nI am glad to have NFP out of the way. As always, I never get it 100% right, I do really believe that it is a lottery and no matter what data you have ahead of news release and no matter who you listen to, NO ONE HAS A CLUE about the numbers, it all just a guess.\r\n\r\nNext month, my plan is that I will be “DARK” ahead of the data and not back on line until lunchtime after the data has been released!\r\n\r\nLast week, profitable trades emanated from CHINA TRADE WARS and NAFTA related currencies such as AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD and USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nMoving forward I see these and JPY pairs as my “go to” currency pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW I WILL TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nStarting this week, I have 16 x LIVE trades and 11 x LIMIT ORDERS in place. I would not expect this overall number to increase, if anything given the geopolitical tensions they may reduce this week.\r\n\r\nI want to get behind a position ahead of NAFTA. It looks like TRUMP wants a deal in principle from talks this week in Lima, Peru and therefore I want to have a couple more CAD trades LIVE for that announcement. Based on comments from Trudeau (Canadian Prime Minister) ongoing talks are positive for a positive conclusion.\r\n\r\nLIVE TRADE: FUN909 EUR/CAD\r\n\r\nLIMIT ORDERS: FUN906 AUD/CAD, FUN907 NZD/CAD, POS766 USD/CAD\r\n\r\nI am also looking at JPY with some detail this week on the back of safety and market uncertainty.\r\n\r\nLIVE TRADES: FT888 EUR/JPY, FUN908 EUR/JPY\r\n\r\nLIMIT ORDER: FUN900 USD/JPY\r\n\r\nIn addition, given the CHINA TRADE WARS, I want to look more aggressively at the AUD currency. At the moment I am long GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD cross rates. I want to add AUD/JPY trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. CROSS-RATES &amp; EMERGING MARKETS PAIRS:</u>\r\n\r\nOver the past week the USD majors suffered from range trading and therefore as a result of that the cross-rate and EM pairs have really been mostly treading water.\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. CROSS RATES</u>:\r\n\r\nNothing much by way of sentiment has changed since last week in my opinion. We are still living day to day on TRUMP tweets and swinging between RISK ON and RISK OFF.\r\n\r\nIt is quite dizzy at the moment as there is no DIRECTION in my opinion. We are going nowhere fast. I see a lot of flashing lights on my screens but not a lot is actually going on for most of the time.\r\n\r\nThe only CROSS RATES that seems to be perky are AUD crosses directly linked to RISK OFF.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3.2. EMERGING MARKETS:</u>\r\n\r\nBeing honest I have only had eyes on the USD/MXN over recent sessions.\r\n\r\nMoving forward this is a pair that I think it would be great to be short sooner rather than later ahead of any NAFTA agreement.\r\n\r\nIt is on my RADAR.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the other EM currency pairs, given the current flip flopping that I am witnessing with the USD, my position has not alerted from last week. I will wait on the sidelines to get clear direction based on a true sentiment shift.\r\n\r\nThere has been some political and economic EM news that has caught my eye:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Indian Central Bank slash inflation projections.</li>\r\n 	<li>South Korean President Park sentenced to prison for 24 years.</li>\r\n 	<li>Early elections in Malaysia</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI know that a few of you are more clued in on this area than me because of where you live.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective the liquidity of the vast majority of EM pairs is so poor and whether they are tradeable with most brokers is debatable.\r\n\r\nNot wanting to be disrespectful to anyone but in this section, I believe that I can only deal with EM currencies that most brokers would have available.\r\n\r\nHere is my list of EM pairs that I will cover in this section:\r\n\r\nUSD/MXN, USD/ZAR, USD/TRY and USD/PLN\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>\r\n\r\nI am questioning what is my macro plan?\r\n\r\nThree weeks ago, it was a no nonsense short NZD/USD pairs, short USD/CAD, short USD/JPY and long GBP/USD.\r\n\r\nThe waters are now muddied and I am starting to question some of my ideas as having longevity through to the end of Q3.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Long GBP; I believe is a no-nonsense trade subject to BREXIT being signed off. Just the sticking point over the IRELAND and GIBRALTAR border crossings require agreement.</li>\r\n 	<li>Short USD/CAD (Long CAD); I am not 100% fixed on this now, given the recent run of mixed data, I would say there has been more poor data than good data of late.</li>\r\n 	<li>Short NZD; I cannot recall when I have not been bearish the Kiwi dollar. Of late it has been very resilient. I suspect mainly due to the cross-rate selling of the AUD/NZD.I had thought that with CHINA TRADE issues, the NZD currency would suffer as much as the AUD. But this has NOT been the case.\r\n\r\nThe NZD resilience has already made me review my AUD/NZD core position. Economically the NZD data has been much betterso far than I had anticipated, since the new Labour Government led coalition assumed power. New RBNZ Governor, Adrian Orr has yet to launch himself on the market. His arrival in charge at the RBNZ has been very low key.\r\n\r\nI am NOT afraid to short the NZD, as I believe it is over-valued, but my NZD trades are not paying off as I thought they would have by now.</li>\r\n 	<li>Short XXX/JPY pairs; this is a trade I never thought in 2018 could be a go to trade. As long as we have market uncertainties with TRADE WARS and market nervousness, which I believe we have, the flight to safety trade using the JPY will remain in vogue.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNext week, I will be writing about by MARKET OVERVIEW and how it has developed in 2018, now that Q1 has completed.\r\n\r\nThe USD is mixed, sentiment is not confirmed and therefore market direction is a chop fest. This is not a great backdrop for a long-term trader to operate. This year, I have rarely allowed trades to develop because of market flip flopping. Whilst I am happy to accept this volatility without sounding silly, it’s not GOOD VOLATILITY. By that I mean it’s just chop and not chop with a directional trade to follow.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD “SENTIMENT CHART” has not changed much from last week. It is not aligned and therefore this is one good reason why the markets are difficult at the moment.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SENTIMENT-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SENTIMENT-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"862\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11416\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"689\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11415\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"693\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing to add this week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @weeklyfxpremium\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>BLOG VERSION: #173 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 7<sup>th</sup>April 2018', 'CHINA / U.S. TRADE: THE HEAT IS ON', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '11431-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-07 08:33:39', '2018-04-07 13:33:39', '', 11431, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/11431-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(11441, 1, '2018-04-07 09:00:40', '2018-04-07 14:00:40', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span><strong>\r\n\r\n</strong><u>1.1. INTRODUCTION:</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOver the past two or three weeks my daily routine has altered slightly, in the sense that I am now waiting on a TRUMP tweet for direction rather than placing as much emphasis on my LEAD INDICATORS as I used to do. I have written quite a bit of late about how the equity markets have become very news driven and economics have taken what can be called a back seat.\r\n\r\nIn response the FX market has been fairly tame in its response. From time to time it “Huff ‘n Puffs” but if truth be told it is sporadic volatility.\r\n\r\nThis change causes me a problem. I am a really big believer in Central Bank policy really controlling the FX reactions longer term. As a FUNDAMENTAL trader this is central to my markets ideals, approaches, trading timeframes, my TRADE MANAGEMENT, POSITION SIZING and is at the heart of my TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nI have to write about TRUMP and CHINA this week in “THE SOAPBOX”, even my keyboard was ready for that topic.\r\n\r\nNext week, however, I intend to write about “THE MARKET NERVES”, because I believe that the markets are nervous.\r\n\r\nIn addition, starting this week, and hopefully each week moving forward, I am going to add into the blog an EDUCATIONAL article. I used to do this each week a couple of years ago and used these articles to build up my EDUCATION section for my PREMIUM subscribers (See section 4).\r\n\r\nAs mentioned last week, my website is going to have a facelift carried out and behind the scenes for most readers of this blog, THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM area for subscribers will also be upgraded. Part of this upgrade includes the TRADER EDUCATION area.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>1.2. THE SOAPBOX:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">CHINA / U.S. TRADE: THE HEAT IS ON</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></p>\r\nThe daily TRUMP TWEET that I see around 7AM AST (6:00AM EST) has now taken on more importance in my diary than the forex factory calendar for US and Canadian Economic data releases that occur at 8:30AM EST.\r\n\r\nI wrote in my blog of March 10th, 2018 about TRUMP controlling the news narrative with the title of my blog being called: -\r\n\r\nIS TRUMP THE 2018 VERSION OF ELLIOT CARVER?\r\n(Elliot Carver being a James Bond movie fictional character)\r\n\r\nThere is absolutely no doubt in my mind (and I have not had a drink before writing this), that TRUMP is smarter than most of us give him credit for. You just have to put up with his clumsy delivery and poor communication, BUT, this is all part of the approach. No-one can be this inept.\r\n\r\nTRUMP has the opportunity in front of him to make the history books with his upcoming face to face meeting with Kim Jong Un and the trade tariff negotiations with China, which, if successful, could become the “Blueprint” for all U.S. trade negotiations moving forward.\r\n\r\nMy observations are though that whilst TRUMP was initially seen as unpredictable when he became President, because of his style, this unpredictability is actually very predictable.\r\n\r\nThe issue for me is that the U.S. media is inept in getting to the bottom of the issues at hand. They prefer to create news rather than address the issues factually. U.S. media is so biased it plays into TRUMPS attacks of “FAKE NEWS”.\r\n\r\nMoving back on point...\r\n\r\nAfter giving the media time to develop their own wild speculations the TRUMP tweet or comments are walked back. Then the actual result via reconciliation and, not as much negotiation as we think, is a watered-down version of the original. We have seen this with steel negotiations and it’s been used as a ploy with the NAFTA negotiations. We now have a threat to cancel NAFTA unless a deal in principal is completed this coming week in Peru.\r\n\r\nThis “ART OF THE DEAL” approach is now seen for what it is, or as it should be seen.\r\n\r\nWith regards to China....\r\n\r\nOn Wednesday last week the market was in FEAR mode that TRADE WARS were underway as CHINA listed out its areas of tariff retaliation. It was a measured move and like the U.S. it came with a delay of implementation because the Chinese want to talk and negotiate just like the TRUMP administration. By Wednesday afternoon, the TRUMP administration had convinced the markets discussions were going to take place and that TRADE WARS were a long, long way away. We saw a rebound in equities that were on their knees first thing and by the end of the day Wall Street ended positive. This positive picture carried on through the following Asian, European and Thursday’s U.S. sessions.\r\n\r\nThen Thursday night, TRUMP released a statement stating that he wants an investigation by the USTR to look into adding a further $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods because of their unfair retaliation. At the same time, he says that he is happy to negotiate.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was immediate JPY strength and the AUD weakness.\r\n\r\nLarry Kudlow, ex CNBC has been thrown under the bus within 48 hours of his attempts to calm the markets down by walking back the threat of TRADE WARS. He now becomes TRUMP’s latest staff victim, and his credibility must be shot.\r\n\r\nOn Friday morning last week, Kudlow was torn into by Johnathan Ferro on BLOOOMBERG. Kudlow tried to put his point across, in fairness to him, but I wonder was there history there between ex. CNBC and BLOOMBERG. It was a shouting match as usual with people talking over each other. Basically, Kudlow said nothing has been done with China, no agreements made, nothing discussed it’s all up for negotiation.\r\n\r\nIt’s all confusion...\r\n\r\nKudlow (Economic Advisor) says “There’s no TRADE WAR here, nothing has been agreed or negotiated”\r\n\r\nLess than two hours later...\r\n\r\nStephen Mnuchin (Secretary of the Treasury) says “It is a TRADE WAR”\r\n\r\nPure TRUMP... confuse, mixed messages, allow for walk backs....\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nAre we in a “tit for tat” mode?\r\n\r\nAs I see it, China is a bit more savvy than the U.S. media when seeing through TRUMP and his antics.\r\n\r\nThere is plenty of commentary about how TRUMP holds all the cards. I don’t see it all one way. China holds a great deal of US debt for one thing. I am not saying that I disagree with the overview of what TRUMP is trying to achieve. I think trade with China has been all one way, but China will NOT be the rollovers that TRUMP maybe thinks they will be.\r\n\r\nTrading this geopolitical event is pretty straightforward in my eyes as long as uncertainty persists its short AUD and long JPY currencies.\r\n\r\nMy favourite pairs to look at would be: -\r\n\r\nSHORT:    AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD, USD/JPY\r\nLONG:      EUR/AUD\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> THIS WEEKS IMPORTANT TRADE INFORMATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1. ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>\r\n</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11411\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"790\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.2. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-DATA-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11412\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-DATA-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"663\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>2.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"721\" /></a> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.4. USD OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing much has changed from last week. We remain in the TRUMP downtrend and remain range bound as seen on the attached chart.\r\n\r\nLonger timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.\r\n\r\nInitially, the recent lows of 88.20 need to be tested first and obviously USD bears have this level firmly set in their sights.\r\n\r\nThe BULLS need to take out the 38% Fibonacci retracement at 90.91 (basically 91.00) in my opinion as absolute minimum to get me thinking that the “KING $ is back”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11424\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.5. USD TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week...\r\n\r\nThe Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.\r\n\r\nWe have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2240 to 1.2480.  The latter range has been tested twice, but we are just range bound.\r\n\r\nThis pair is waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to move it one way or the other. Sadly, NFP did not provide the catalyst required.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11425\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nOverhead resistance is at 1.4240. There are lots of buyers ready to cap moves higher here. It will take an excellent piece of BREXIT data to thrust through that level.\r\n\r\nThe upward sloping trend line has supported recent USD strength and last Friday’s candle is a bullish engulfing candle. In the past these have NOT produced the onwards moves that technical traders expect. Maybe this one will be different. If so, a re-test of 1.4200 could be on the cards this week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11426\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nWe are trending lower and this pair is suffering under the effects of CHINA TRADE WARS with the U.S.\r\n\r\nWe have seen this pair move sideways over the past week or so. I see this as just consolidation of the move lower.\r\n\r\nI have found this pair difficult to read. At times, I feel it could easily spike to 0.7700 as well as just as easily fall to 0.7500.\r\n\r\nThe doji style of candle for the last day of last week both reflects and confirms my thoughts.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11423\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nI believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7350.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11427\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe Head and Shoulders pattern is in play. The measured move is to 1.2510. It is only invalidated should we see a break back above 1.2930.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11428\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.\r\n\r\nThere is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850. I am a little reluctant to aggressively trade the CHF given its flight to safety and neutrality attraction.\r\n\r\nWe are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11429\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\nWe are still in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.\r\n\r\nHowever, we have spiked to trend line resistance around 107.00. A short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11430\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"806\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 is roughly as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…\r\n\r\nGo to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">TRADER EDUCATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMost weeks, I will add an article in this section based on an area of importance in trading that I feel should be documented. It may not resonate with all traders but for some I hope they find it useful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>FACTORS FOR DETERMINING POSITION SIZES</strong></span></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHow do you determine the size of your trade?\r\n\r\nDo you have one fixed size for every trade you make with your favourite pair?\r\n\r\nWhilst trading the same position size for every trade sounds simple regardless of what pair you are trading, there are more factors to take into consideration.\r\n\r\nBelow, I am going to give you three factors that I consider before placing a trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> MONEY MANAGEMENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFrom my perspective, this is the most important factor to consider. How much are you going to RISK?\r\n\r\nPersonally, I operate to a guideline in my TRADE PLAN that no single trade should RISK more than 3% of my trading account.\r\n\r\nAs a “Newbie” trader there are many other things you can do for effective MONEY MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nIf you are a new FX trader, you could be prone to mistakes and that is 100% normal. Therefore, being conservative with your approach will give you the time required to understand what you are doing and the effects of what you are doing with regards to the balance on your broker account.\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>2. VOLATILITY:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe FX market is a strange animal. The way the market behaves and reacts to events changes from time to time.\r\n\r\nIt is very easy to be caught out.\r\n\r\nAt times your currency pair can be trading steady in a range in the desired direction and as such you feel inclined to maybe increase you existing position or add another trade.\r\n\r\nOn other occasions, the markets can be quite fast moving, maybe around a major economic data release, or on a breaking news event.\r\n\r\nAs a “Newbie” these are the times to keep your position size unchanged.\r\n\r\nTrading Forex you have leverage and whilst this leverage can be good news if you are generating a nice profitable position, leverage can also be your enemy as badly positioned trades can grow losses very quickly.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CONVICTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere are some trades that you are 100% comfortable with and there are others that seem OK, but you prefer to be more cautious with your conviction until the trade starts to gather momentum based on current sentiment.\r\n\r\nThe FX market lays out many “Elephant Traps” for the retail trader.\r\n\r\nFor example, a breakout out of a trading range can be viewed as a trade opportunity based upon the breakout move being directional. However, the breakout move could be a false breakout, perhaps just an extended STOP LOSS run.\r\n\r\nA greater CONVICTION trade would be the same move but accompanied with a major news event that supports the move in the same direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4. <strong>DIFFERENT CURRENCY PAIRS / DIFFERENT POSITION SIZES:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nSaving the best for last.\r\n\r\nMONEY MANAGEMENT I believe is crucial to TRADING LONGEVITY and trading success. In the Forex market there are hundreds of possible trading pairs, some are very popular, and some are what are termed “Exotic” because they are not traded as often.\r\n\r\nLIQUIDITY is important when trading. We need good money flows through a currency pair to ensure good two-way action and a battle between buyers and sellers. This gives moves that are more consistent.\r\n\r\nWith exotic pairs, the money flows are not as great and bigger institutional orders can create volatility that cannot be sustained and move price that creates issues for retail traders vis-à-vis STOP LOSS positioning.\r\n\r\nTherefore, it makes sense from my perspective to adopt position sizes based on the usual liquidity a currency pair would see on a daily basis.\r\n\r\nThe currency pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP attract greater money flows than AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, I would categorize these pairs as LEVEL 1 pairs.\r\n\r\nJPY crosses and EUR/CHF, I call these LEVEL 2 pairs.\r\n\r\nAUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/NZD, CAD/CHF, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF, USD/SEK, and USD/NOK, I would call these LEVEL 3 pairs.\r\n\r\nUSD/MXN, USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, EUR/NOK. GBP/SEK, all others and there are far too many to list here. I would call these LEVEL 4 pairs.\r\n\r\nI would apply something like the following factor to a maximum position size.\r\n\r\nLEVEL 1 pairs = 100%\r\n\r\nLEVEL 2 pairs = 50%\r\n\r\nLEVEL 3 pairs = 25%\r\n\r\nLEVEL 4 pairs = 10%\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW I WILL TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. CROSS-RATES &amp; EMERGING MARKETS PAIRS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. CROSS RATES</u>:\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. EMERGING MARKETS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #277 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 7<sup>th</sup>April 2018', 'CHINA / U.S. TRADE: THE HEAT IS ON', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'china-u-s-trade-the-heat-is-on', '', '', '2018-04-07 09:00:40', '2018-04-07 14:00:40', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=11441', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(11442, 1, '2018-04-07 09:00:40', '2018-04-07 14:00:40', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span><strong>\r\n\r\n</strong><u>1.1. INTRODUCTION:</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOver the past two or three weeks my daily routine has altered slightly, in the sense that I am now waiting on a TRUMP tweet for direction rather than placing as much emphasis on my LEAD INDICATORS as I used to do. I have written quite a bit of late about how the equity markets have become very news driven and economics have taken what can be called a back seat.\r\n\r\nIn response the FX market has been fairly tame in its response. From time to time it “Huff ‘n Puffs” but if truth be told it is sporadic volatility.\r\n\r\nThis change causes me a problem. I am a really big believer in Central Bank policy really controlling the FX reactions longer term. As a FUNDAMENTAL trader this is central to my markets ideals, approaches, trading timeframes, my TRADE MANAGEMENT, POSITION SIZING and is at the heart of my TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nI have to write about TRUMP and CHINA this week in “THE SOAPBOX”, even my keyboard was ready for that topic.\r\n\r\nNext week, however, I intend to write about “THE MARKET NERVES”, because I believe that the markets are nervous.\r\n\r\nIn addition, starting this week, and hopefully each week moving forward, I am going to add into the blog an EDUCATIONAL article. I used to do this each week a couple of years ago and used these articles to build up my EDUCATION section for my PREMIUM subscribers (See section 4).\r\n\r\nAs mentioned last week, my website is going to have a facelift carried out and behind the scenes for most readers of this blog, THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM area for subscribers will also be upgraded. Part of this upgrade includes the TRADER EDUCATION area.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>1.2. THE SOAPBOX:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">CHINA / U.S. TRADE: THE HEAT IS ON</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></p>\r\nThe daily TRUMP TWEET that I see around 7AM AST (6:00AM EST) has now taken on more importance in my diary than the forex factory calendar for US and Canadian Economic data releases that occur at 8:30AM EST.\r\n\r\nI wrote in my blog of March 10th, 2018 about TRUMP controlling the news narrative with the title of my blog being called: -\r\n\r\nIS TRUMP THE 2018 VERSION OF ELLIOT CARVER?\r\n(Elliot Carver being a James Bond movie fictional character)\r\n\r\nThere is absolutely no doubt in my mind (and I have not had a drink before writing this), that TRUMP is smarter than most of us give him credit for. You just have to put up with his clumsy delivery and poor communication, BUT, this is all part of the approach. No-one can be this inept.\r\n\r\nTRUMP has the opportunity in front of him to make the history books with his upcoming face to face meeting with Kim Jong Un and the trade tariff negotiations with China, which, if successful, could become the “Blueprint” for all U.S. trade negotiations moving forward.\r\n\r\nMy observations are though that whilst TRUMP was initially seen as unpredictable when he became President, because of his style, this unpredictability is actually very predictable.\r\n\r\nThe issue for me is that the U.S. media is inept in getting to the bottom of the issues at hand. They prefer to create news rather than address the issues factually. U.S. media is so biased it plays into TRUMPS attacks of “FAKE NEWS”.\r\n\r\nMoving back on point...\r\n\r\nAfter giving the media time to develop their own wild speculations the TRUMP tweet or comments are walked back. Then the actual result via reconciliation and, not as much negotiation as we think, is a watered-down version of the original. We have seen this with steel negotiations and it’s been used as a ploy with the NAFTA negotiations. We now have a threat to cancel NAFTA unless a deal in principal is completed this coming week in Peru.\r\n\r\nThis “ART OF THE DEAL” approach is now seen for what it is, or as it should be seen.\r\n\r\nWith regards to China....\r\n\r\nOn Wednesday last week the market was in FEAR mode that TRADE WARS were underway as CHINA listed out its areas of tariff retaliation. It was a measured move and like the U.S. it came with a delay of implementation because the Chinese want to talk and negotiate just like the TRUMP administration. By Wednesday afternoon, the TRUMP administration had convinced the markets discussions were going to take place and that TRADE WARS were a long, long way away. We saw a rebound in equities that were on their knees first thing and by the end of the day Wall Street ended positive. This positive picture carried on through the following Asian, European and Thursday’s U.S. sessions.\r\n\r\nThen Thursday night, TRUMP released a statement stating that he wants an investigation by the USTR to look into adding a further $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods because of their unfair retaliation. At the same time, he says that he is happy to negotiate.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was immediate JPY strength and the AUD weakness.\r\n\r\nLarry Kudlow, ex CNBC has been thrown under the bus within 48 hours of his attempts to calm the markets down by walking back the threat of TRADE WARS. He now becomes TRUMP’s latest staff victim, and his credibility must be shot.\r\n\r\nOn Friday morning last week, Kudlow was torn into by Johnathan Ferro on BLOOOMBERG. Kudlow tried to put his point across, in fairness to him, but I wonder was there history there between ex. CNBC and BLOOMBERG. It was a shouting match as usual with people talking over each other. Basically, Kudlow said nothing has been done with China, no agreements made, nothing discussed it’s all up for negotiation.\r\n\r\nIt’s all confusion...\r\n\r\nKudlow (Economic Advisor) says “There’s no TRADE WAR here, nothing has been agreed or negotiated”\r\n\r\nLess than two hours later...\r\n\r\nStephen Mnuchin (Secretary of the Treasury) says “It is a TRADE WAR”\r\n\r\nPure TRUMP... confuse, mixed messages, allow for walk backs....\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nAre we in a “tit for tat” mode?\r\n\r\nAs I see it, China is a bit more savvy than the U.S. media when seeing through TRUMP and his antics.\r\n\r\nThere is plenty of commentary about how TRUMP holds all the cards. I don’t see it all one way. China holds a great deal of US debt for one thing. I am not saying that I disagree with the overview of what TRUMP is trying to achieve. I think trade with China has been all one way, but China will NOT be the rollovers that TRUMP maybe thinks they will be.\r\n\r\nTrading this geopolitical event is pretty straightforward in my eyes as long as uncertainty persists its short AUD and long JPY currencies.\r\n\r\nMy favourite pairs to look at would be: -\r\n\r\nSHORT:    AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD, USD/JPY\r\nLONG:      EUR/AUD\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> THIS WEEKS IMPORTANT TRADE INFORMATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1. ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>\r\n</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11411\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"790\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.2. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-DATA-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11412\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-DATA-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"663\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>2.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"721\" /></a> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.4. USD OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing much has changed from last week. We remain in the TRUMP downtrend and remain range bound as seen on the attached chart.\r\n\r\nLonger timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.\r\n\r\nInitially, the recent lows of 88.20 need to be tested first and obviously USD bears have this level firmly set in their sights.\r\n\r\nThe BULLS need to take out the 38% Fibonacci retracement at 90.91 (basically 91.00) in my opinion as absolute minimum to get me thinking that the “KING $ is back”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11424\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.5. USD TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week...\r\n\r\nThe Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.\r\n\r\nWe have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2240 to 1.2480.  The latter range has been tested twice, but we are just range bound.\r\n\r\nThis pair is waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to move it one way or the other. Sadly, NFP did not provide the catalyst required.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11425\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nOverhead resistance is at 1.4240. There are lots of buyers ready to cap moves higher here. It will take an excellent piece of BREXIT data to thrust through that level.\r\n\r\nThe upward sloping trend line has supported recent USD strength and last Friday’s candle is a bullish engulfing candle. In the past these have NOT produced the onwards moves that technical traders expect. Maybe this one will be different. If so, a re-test of 1.4200 could be on the cards this week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11426\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nWe are trending lower and this pair is suffering under the effects of CHINA TRADE WARS with the U.S.\r\n\r\nWe have seen this pair move sideways over the past week or so. I see this as just consolidation of the move lower.\r\n\r\nI have found this pair difficult to read. At times, I feel it could easily spike to 0.7700 as well as just as easily fall to 0.7500.\r\n\r\nThe doji style of candle for the last day of last week both reflects and confirms my thoughts.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11423\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nI believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7350.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11427\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe Head and Shoulders pattern is in play. The measured move is to 1.2510. It is only invalidated should we see a break back above 1.2930.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11428\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.\r\n\r\nThere is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850. I am a little reluctant to aggressively trade the CHF given its flight to safety and neutrality attraction.\r\n\r\nWe are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11429\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\nWe are still in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.\r\n\r\nHowever, we have spiked to trend line resistance around 107.00. A short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11430\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-07042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-07042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"806\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 is roughly as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…\r\n\r\nGo to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">TRADER EDUCATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMost weeks, I will add an article in this section based on an area of importance in trading that I feel should be documented. It may not resonate with all traders but for some I hope they find it useful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>FACTORS FOR DETERMINING POSITION SIZES</strong></span></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHow do you determine the size of your trade?\r\n\r\nDo you have one fixed size for every trade you make with your favourite pair?\r\n\r\nWhilst trading the same position size for every trade sounds simple regardless of what pair you are trading, there are more factors to take into consideration.\r\n\r\nBelow, I am going to give you three factors that I consider before placing a trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> MONEY MANAGEMENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFrom my perspective, this is the most important factor to consider. How much are you going to RISK?\r\n\r\nPersonally, I operate to a guideline in my TRADE PLAN that no single trade should RISK more than 3% of my trading account.\r\n\r\nAs a “Newbie” trader there are many other things you can do for effective MONEY MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nIf you are a new FX trader, you could be prone to mistakes and that is 100% normal. Therefore, being conservative with your approach will give you the time required to understand what you are doing and the effects of what you are doing with regards to the balance on your broker account.\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>2. VOLATILITY:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe FX market is a strange animal. The way the market behaves and reacts to events changes from time to time.\r\n\r\nIt is very easy to be caught out.\r\n\r\nAt times your currency pair can be trading steady in a range in the desired direction and as such you feel inclined to maybe increase you existing position or add another trade.\r\n\r\nOn other occasions, the markets can be quite fast moving, maybe around a major economic data release, or on a breaking news event.\r\n\r\nAs a “Newbie” these are the times to keep your position size unchanged.\r\n\r\nTrading Forex you have leverage and whilst this leverage can be good news if you are generating a nice profitable position, leverage can also be your enemy as badly positioned trades can grow losses very quickly.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CONVICTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere are some trades that you are 100% comfortable with and there are others that seem OK, but you prefer to be more cautious with your conviction until the trade starts to gather momentum based on current sentiment.\r\n\r\nThe FX market lays out many “Elephant Traps” for the retail trader.\r\n\r\nFor example, a breakout out of a trading range can be viewed as a trade opportunity based upon the breakout move being directional. However, the breakout move could be a false breakout, perhaps just an extended STOP LOSS run.\r\n\r\nA greater CONVICTION trade would be the same move but accompanied with a major news event that supports the move in the same direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4. <strong>DIFFERENT CURRENCY PAIRS / DIFFERENT POSITION SIZES:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nSaving the best for last.\r\n\r\nMONEY MANAGEMENT I believe is crucial to TRADING LONGEVITY and trading success. In the Forex market there are hundreds of possible trading pairs, some are very popular, and some are what are termed “Exotic” because they are not traded as often.\r\n\r\nLIQUIDITY is important when trading. We need good money flows through a currency pair to ensure good two-way action and a battle between buyers and sellers. This gives moves that are more consistent.\r\n\r\nWith exotic pairs, the money flows are not as great and bigger institutional orders can create volatility that cannot be sustained and move price that creates issues for retail traders vis-à-vis STOP LOSS positioning.\r\n\r\nTherefore, it makes sense from my perspective to adopt position sizes based on the usual liquidity a currency pair would see on a daily basis.\r\n\r\nThe currency pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP attract greater money flows than AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, I would categorize these pairs as LEVEL 1 pairs.\r\n\r\nJPY crosses and EUR/CHF, I call these LEVEL 2 pairs.\r\n\r\nAUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/NZD, CAD/CHF, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF, USD/SEK, and USD/NOK, I would call these LEVEL 3 pairs.\r\n\r\nUSD/MXN, USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, EUR/NOK. GBP/SEK, all others and there are far too many to list here. I would call these LEVEL 4 pairs.\r\n\r\nI would apply something like the following factor to a maximum position size.\r\n\r\nLEVEL 1 pairs = 100%\r\n\r\nLEVEL 2 pairs = 50%\r\n\r\nLEVEL 3 pairs = 25%\r\n\r\nLEVEL 4 pairs = 10%\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW I WILL TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. CROSS-RATES &amp; EMERGING MARKETS PAIRS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. CROSS RATES</u>:\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. EMERGING MARKETS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #277 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 7<sup>th</sup>April 2018', 'CHINA / U.S. TRADE: THE HEAT IS ON', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '11441-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-07 09:00:40', '2018-04-07 14:00:40', '', 11441, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/11441-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(11492, 1, '2018-04-14 08:28:06', '2018-04-14 13:28:06', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>1.1. INTRODUCTION</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nThis will sound a little crazy but over the past couple of weeks I have had worries about what to write about. I feel that the FX market is being dominated by TRUMP. Last week I even eluded to my early morning daily routine being altered because like most traders I was waiting on the 7AM EST daily TRUMP tweet to see which way we are heading on the day and would it be RISK ON or a RISK OFF.\r\n\r\nEconomic data seemed to be secondary to the TRUMP media circus that has ring fenced not just equities but also the FX market.\r\n\r\nLet me be straight. It\'s a bloody hard thing trading at the moment. We are range bound, pretty much directionless and sentiment shifts by what seems like the content of the latest tweet.\r\n\r\nI will expand on these thoughts and take matters a couple of stages forward in the “SOAPBOX” section of the blog a little later.\r\n\r\nApart from trading being a pain in the arse, what else is bugging me?\r\n\r\nWell it’s not the snow....\r\n\r\nThe weather has thankfully improved and our new BIG GREEN EGG BBQ is due very soon. This will affect my trading as I will be more outdoors during the day and not tied to my multi screens for hours on end. Better weather = MacBook Air and iPAD Pro days in the near future after the London fix.\r\n\r\nI am maybe a little tired of the current trading ranges. The EUR/USD has been operating inside a range within a larger range for a much longer than expected period of time than I thought, given all the news flows.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11484\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above you can clearly see the two ranges.\r\nLarge range (Maroon Trend lines) 1.2085 to 1.2560\r\nInside range (Black Trend lines) 1.2235 to 1.2475\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhen the EUR/USD is held captive as the most liquid pair in the FX market it adds to my frustration as it limits other moves with other currency pairs and encourages ranges to be developed all over.\r\n\r\nI am NOT saying that there are NOT opportunities to trade, but, it is like walking across a minefield at times. There is always a market within which to trade, however, not every market contains opportunities that fit with your personal style of trading and the temptation to force trades therefore increases each day and if you do not have control of your MINDSET it becomes a challenge.\r\n\r\nI have subscribers to provide for, so the pressure mounts to find opportunities beneath the obvious and that is not always possible. Therefore, they get nothing if I see nothing and we all look at screens....\r\n\r\nThis is what is causing I think my main frustration with the market at the moment. It will change, it always does but looking at the EUR/USD (above) chart once again, it has been inside a 140-pip trading range for just over a month. In a nutshell there is the root cause of my frustration.\r\n\r\nI have often communicated that PATIENCE is vital when trading. Sometimes your best trades are the ones you miss, when price does not align with your TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nMoving on...\r\n\r\nPatience and the ability to adapt to this at times, bizarre marketplace with its corresponding price action, are critical success factors at the moment.\r\n\r\nMy FX PREMIUM subscribers that have been with me for a few years now know that I have embraced change in the way I approach and adapt my trading style to suit the current market. I do NOT have a TRUMP trade in FX and I doubt many traders do. I have read a lot of column inches and I think most of it is tantamount to gambling.\r\n\r\nI have read some frightening stories recently via social media regarding traders failing in this current market through over trading, wrongly sizing trades, starting FX to try and make back cash lost through crypto currency gambling.\r\n\r\nI have said for the past three years and it has been my closing comment on every blog for over a year, that to be successful and to achieve longevity with your trading you need to trade smaller positions with wider stops to basically MANAGE YOUR RISK. This approach keeps you out of the chop fest. This approach works... the FX PREMIUM success proves that point.\r\n\r\nNewbie traders believe probably via Brokers or Social Media that trading FX is straightforward. They jump in with NO idea of leverage and believe that trading with large position sizes generate larger profits. If you are the luckiest bugger alive that approach will work, but in reality, it\'s a sure-fire way to blow up your account and be margin called.\r\n\r\nTrading is lonely. You are on your own. No one is going to cuddle up and say never mind, it’s hard, better luck next time. It is you versus the market. You need real disciplines to achieve trading longevity. It is NOT a get rich quick play. It is hard graft and a particular set of skills are required with the correct MINDSET to be successful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>1.2. THE SOAPBOX:\r\n</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT</span></strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFOMO has become a very common abbreviation meaning “FEAR OF MISSING OUT”. Right now, I can see this in the stock market and with reading about FX traders blowing up accounts it is obviously apparent in the FX environment as well.\r\n\r\nThe markets are nervous...\r\n\r\nWe have a President in place who judges the economy by how well Wall Street trades.\r\n\r\nI think I am getting punch drunk on the TRUMP approach. It’s predictable, boring, childish, repetitive and frankly if this is what it takes to resonate with his voter base GOD HELP these United States, and NOT GOD BLESS them!\r\n\r\nI want to be balanced in this piece and not just bash TRUMP, however....\r\n\r\nI expected more; he is, despite my increasing lack of tolerance towards the TRUMP style with his awkward stance and approach on the cusp of something big that no other U.S. President could ever have achieved with both a China reciprocal trade deal and North Korean denuclearization. They are not yet signed, sealed or delivered, but my goodness he is closer than anyone from the Oval office has ever been. I think Washington is so fucked up it wouldn’t recognize the enormity of these deals if they were concluded positively. I have said it before and I will say it again, these are HISTORY BOOK ITEMS.\r\n\r\nAll this aside, back in the day, when I managed by sales teams across Europe, I would always consider myself a change manager. Right now, I am not that willing to accept the TRUMP influences and impact as freely as I may have done a few years back.\r\n\r\nThe markets are nervous, they are skittish. They have risen so far so fast on the back of TRUMP, should he for whatever reason lose the Presidency there will be blood on Wall Street.\r\n\r\nThe markets are dealing with: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on SYRIA MISSILE ATTACK</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on TARIFFS</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on CHINA TRADE DEALS</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on RUSSIA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on NORTH KOREA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on TPP</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on NAFTA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION</li>\r\n 	<li>I nearly wrote TRUMP on STORMY DANIELS!</li>\r\n 	<li>The USPS (last Friday) stating that TRUMP’S attack on AMAZON was without substance as the USPS makes money out of the AMAZON postal deal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Also last Friday: James Comey, the sacked by TRUMP ex. FBI Director, who is about to have his book “A Higher Loyalty” released soon, likens TRUMP to a Mafia boss, a congenital liar, an unethical leader devoid of human emotion and a person driven by personal ego. The last part seems pretty accurate. In true TRUMP Presidency style Comey was called by the President of the United States a “slime ball”.</li>\r\n 	<li>In addition; we are now entering earnings season once again.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL is on the March higher because of middle east uncertainty over supply. This will have a knock-on effect into production and distribution costs.PLUS:</li>\r\n 	<li>The FED are raising interest rates maybe 3 more times in 2018\r\nand\r\nThe Dot Plot from the FED suggests 4 more rate hikes in 2019.</li>\r\n 	<li>Central Bank divergence talk has gone quiet of late. Let me just say “THIS IS REAL”. Can you imagine USD strength coming back through the markets? Since TRUMP was inaugurated the USD (DXY) has been in a down trend and any bounces so far have been shallow(see DXY chart below).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhat comes first.... USD strength or a “FULL-ON” BEAR MARKET?\r\n\r\nSince the GFC we have until very recently just seen a one-way market. RISK-OFF has NOT been heard much at all until very recently.\r\n\r\nDead right...\r\n\r\nThese markets are nervous. FEAR and GREED are still dominant but who wants to be “A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT?”\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, TRUMP is on a thinner line than ever at the moment between glory and utter failure.\r\n\r\nThe graphic below shows in RED those senior in his administration who are no longer in his team...the sacked list! I’d say if you are on this page listed in BLACK your days could be numbered!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TRUMP-TOP-WHIITE-HOUSE-AIDES.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11474\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TRUMP-TOP-WHIITE-HOUSE-AIDES.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1013\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe markets have an awful lot to consider. I would say that prayers are held most days before trading and that contingency plans are in place for the inevitable.\r\n\r\nThe existing formula cannot possibly have longevity for the U.S. Something has got to give.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11483\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom an FX viewpoint using the DXY chart above, with regards to USD strength it could be a really sharp RIP higher. The TRUMP inauguration trend line resistance comes in around 91.75 (RED LINE) in the DXY\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is above the trend line at 92.54 (GREEN LINE). This could be a trend line break target. At this level it becomes my line in the sand play. 95.19 (SKY BLUE LINE) is a point of interest on any move higher in the next few months.\r\n\r\nFor now, however price action is contained by the 38% Fibonacci retracement.\r\n\r\nIf you DO NOT have this chart on your radar for your decision making at the moment you will do moving forward.\r\n\r\nI do not want to sound alarmist but so much is bubbling under, in my opinion, it’s now becoming just a matter of when NOT if.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> THIS WEEKS IMPORTANT TRADE INFORMATION:</span></strong>&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1. ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>\r\n</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11490\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"952\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-EVENTS-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11491\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-EVENTS-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"958\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>2.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11481\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"727\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.4. USD OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing much has changed from last week. We remain in the TRUMP downtrend and remain range bound as seen on the attached chart.\r\n\r\nLonger timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP inauguration trend line resistance comes in around 91.75 (RED LINE) in the DXY\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is above the trend line at 92.54 (GREEN LINE). This could be a trend line break target. At this level it becomes my line in the sand play. 95.19 (SKY BLUE LINE) is a point of interest on any move higher in the next few months.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11483\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.5. USD TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week...\r\n\r\nThe Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.\r\n\r\nWe have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2240 to 1.2480.  The latter range has been tested twice, but we are just range bound.\r\n\r\nThis pair is waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to move it one way or the other.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11484\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis pair tested 1.4300, more than likely on the EUR/GBP breakdown with lots of selling coming through the markets rather than a flurry of GBP buyers entering the market. We end the week with a nasty looking “shooting star” candle having formed.\r\n\r\nLooks to me that the GBP could be moving lower in the early sessions this week. This would be consistent with the USD Strength that we saw into the latter trading sessions last week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11485\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis pair had strengthened last week off the 0.7650 level, which now looks like quite a formidable level for bulls to start building stops.\r\n\r\nOn Friday last week however, we posted quite a nasty looking “shooting star” candle which I have highlighted on the chart below.\r\n\r\nThe range to play now is 0.7650 to 0.7820.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11482\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nA lot of NZD strength last week. This currency pair was very resilient to geopolitical news over the past two or three weeks which, has continued to surprise me. However, last Friday’s candle was a dent for the NZD bulls touting a move to test the range highs at 0.7435. The bull move stopped at 0.7400.\r\n\r\nI believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7435.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11486\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe Head and Shoulders pattern is in play. The measured move is to 1.2510. It is only invalidated should we see a break back above 1.2930.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11487\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.\r\n\r\nThere is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850. I am a little reluctant to aggressively trade the CHF given its flight to safety and neutrality attraction.\r\n\r\nWe are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11488\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\nWe are still in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.\r\n\r\nWe have broken above 107.00 and I think a short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.\r\n\r\nI am surprised by recent price action with the USD/JPY given all the geopolitical news hanging over the markets. This in itself makes me more cautious in what trades I am considering. This divergence is quite strange.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-MONTHLY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11489\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-MONTHLY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11471\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"808\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 is roughly as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…\r\n\r\nGo to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">TRADER EDUCATION:</span></strong>&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMost weeks, I will add an article in this section based on an area of importance in trading that I feel should be documented. It may not resonate with all traders but for some I hope they find it useful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE 5 MOST COMMON MISTAKES </strong><strong>NEWBIE TRADERS MAKE</strong></span></p>\r\nIt isn’t always easy being a newbie. Whether it’s in taking on a new job, starting your own business, or trying out a different sport, the degree of uncertainty in a new and unfamiliar undertaking can sometimes be overwhelming and push you to make mistakes. Trading is no different. Here are five of the most common mistakes that newbie traders can make:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> TRADING WITHOUT A PLAN OR JOURNAL:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nEven newbies fresh out of school and in their first week of trading know that the market is as unpredictable as the next “American Idol” or “The Voice” sensation. More often than not, in the attempt to make the most out of the opportunities the market presents, you get so lost in the emotions that you forget what you are supposed to do.\r\n\r\nWith your own money on the line, planning and researching trades and not being impulsive are they key goals. To help you achieve this key goal, which is to become a consistently profitable trader, you need a TRADING PLAN and maybe a TRADING JOURNAL.\r\n\r\nIt can be a simple outline of your entry and exit conditions and your RISK MANAGEMENT rules, and it needs to be written down so that you can refer to it, record and review your progress. I use my TRADING PLAN all the time to refer to my entry and exit strategies. Your TRADING PLAN helps to keep you focused.<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> NOT SETTING A STOP LOSS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nTrading without a STOP LOSS is like trying to train a Labrador puppy to walk beside you nicely without a lead (unless you are Caesar Milan). It is impossible and crazy.\r\n\r\nStop Losses are there to protect. They are not 100% guaranteed as the SNB day (when the EUR/CHF peg was removed) illustrated. They are the best insurance you have however, to stop your account being wiped out. Over the past three to four weeks in particular we have seen very volatile markets and short squeezes that could potentially wipe out accounts. Therefore, setting a STOP LOSS allows you to survive and fight another day even if you have a losing trade.\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> REVENGE TRADING:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nYou would not be a trader if you had not ventured into this area at one time or another. Pure and simple REVENGE TRADING is when you get emotional over a losing trade and then try over aggressively to recuperate the loss. I have revenge traded and like most traders my REVENGE TRADE was twice or three times the position of the original trade.\r\n\r\nIt is difficult, but you just have to try to accept the loss and not let your judgement in the future be clouded by your ego. The text books will tell you that instead of REVENGE TRADING you should focus your efforts and energy on analyzing what went wrong and figuring out what you can do to improve your subsequent trades.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LETTING LOSING TRADES RUN:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis is an interesting subject. The textbooks also say that newbie traders often let their losing trades run all the way to their stops instead of cutting losses early.\r\n\r\nAs a POSITION TRADER I am at odds with some of the textbooks. I fully understand that mentally if the trade is going the wrong way, maybe on the back of a significant news event, it may be the correct action to exit a trade early, I have no problem with this.\r\n\r\nHowever, 90% of the Trade setups that I get involved with are based off Fibonacci levels and I usually allow an excess of 10 or 15 pips either way for stops or limits. It has been proved and well known that currencies will run to specific prices, test these levels and then stop and reverse. Therefore, sometimes if you believe that your stop is at a level where there is a lot of price interest I see absolutely no problem letting the trade run because history has taught me that sometimes taking a loss is wrong if there is a huge amount of interest at your Fibonacci level.\r\n\r\nWhen you enter a trade, you assess risk. This risk is based on possibly several indicators and chart analysis techniques. You have to set realistic stop loss levels and sometimes the best policy is not to exit the trade but to wait and let it reverse. This route preserves capital in your broker account and CAPITAL PRESERVATION is key to Forex success.\r\n\r\nKnowing when to let a losing trade runs comes with experience. If you have entered the trade with a clear objective and assessed the risk, you sometimes need to allow the trade to move around within the parameters you have set. Having said that a geopolitical event or poor headline economic data sometimes means that no matter what you have planned, it needs to be forgotten and the trade exited.\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> HAVING UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nHaving goals in all aspects of life help you stay motivated and disciplined, the same can be said of Forex trading.\r\n\r\nThe goals you set have to be realistic and achievable without adding too much stress.\r\n\r\nHand in Hand with setting your goals whether you prefer, daily, weekly or monthly you also need to have a clear understanding of the steps that you need to take to achieve these goals. This is what your TRADING PLAN is for. You detail objectives and the critical success factors that you need to achieve the goals set\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nI am moving forward but progressing slower than in recent times, but still thankfully moving forward.\r\n\r\nMost profits in the past week have come from USD majors, despite my wish not to trade them. The cross-rates have in the main become quite slow moving (everything is relative).\r\nThere is a huge list of geopolitical events hanging over these markets and as noted earlier for a month the EUR/USD has traded inside a 140-pip range.\r\n\r\nI am not hanging around, taking profits at the moment.\r\n\r\nI closed ahead of this weekend many trades that did not fit the criteria of a potential RISK OFF trade. I removed quite a bit of RISK, but I have left the commodity currencies in play for potential USD strength.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW I WILL TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nI have reduced RISK compared with last weekend:\r\n\r\nThis week: 14 x live trades &amp; 5 x limit orders.\r\nLast week: 16 x live trades &amp; 11 x limit orders.\r\n\r\nI have basically commodity and commodity cross-rate pairs LIVE at the moment. I am looking ahead, and I believe we are about to head into, despite earnings season which may delay the inevitable of an equity market sell-off / pullback.\r\n\r\nMy live trades that fit my RISK OFF scenario are: -\r\n\r\nMOM044 AUD/CAD (Short)\r\nFUN914 AUD/USD (Short)\r\n\r\nPOS661 and POS763 NZD/USD (Short)\r\nPOS744 and POS755 GBP/NZD (Long)\r\n\r\nPOS754 GBP/AUD (Long)\r\n\r\n(I have POS756 and POS761 GBP/NZD long trades as limit orders)\r\n\r\nThe JPY trades will not come into play until I see how the USD/JPY reacts. I have a limit order in place at 108.00 regarding the USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nPlenty are trying to short the JPY crosses, without the USD/JPY confirmation. I have tried this in the past and it is a disaster. Hence, I am being patient and waiting.\r\n\r\nI will look to add to RISK OFF trades this week, but it is all dependent on the geopolitical situation.\r\n\r\nI have AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP trades in play at the moment that are not directly in the firing line of the USD should it get hit!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. CROSS-RATES &amp; EMERGING MARKETS PAIRS:</u>\r\n\r\nOver the past week the USD majors suffered from range trading and therefore as a result of that the cross-rate and EM pairs have really been mostly treading water.\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. CROSS RATES</u>:\r\n\r\nNo major changes in the past week. It is all a little boring with cross-rates at the moment. I think I tweeted out a couple of times that it was like a disco from the 1970’s, lots of flashing lights.\r\n\r\nThe only issue I had was despite all the flashing lights, not a lot was actually going on.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3.2. EMERGING MARKETS:</u><u> </u>\r\n\r\nI have not paid much attention here at all.\r\n\r\nThe USD/MXN continues to be under pressure, it is closing in on recent lows at 18.0500.  Mexican interest rates did not change last week, and NAFTA negotiations still hang over this pair. Given the issues with RUSSIA and SYRIA the USD/RUB has been hit quite severely.\r\n\r\nI am not actively looking to trade EM currencies, so my thoughts are very sporadic and possibly very vague for those of you residing in EM countries.\r\n\r\nHowever, make no mistake, should the USD come under serious buying pressure and USD strength comes through the markets I will be adding to my marker trade USD/SEK (MOM045), whilst not an EM currency, this pair is one of my key lead indicators. It is very heavily correlated to and sensitive to USD moves. If this pair RIPS higher then EM currencies will be on my RADAR.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>\r\n\r\nHaving read about 20 reports and commentaries from those who know better than the rest of us, it is now as clear as MUD!\r\n\r\nBasically, the Banks, the high-profile market analysts and TV pundits have no consensus at all... it is a free for all.\r\n\r\nI was not certain last weekend about my longer-term market FUNDAMENTALS, and, I was doubting my abilities to see through the forest to select the tree I wanted. This week reading through all the material didn’t give me any new thoughts away from my original ones, but one factor did leap out.\r\n\r\nAll the geopolitical RISK hanging over these markets counts for something hence my SOAPBOX article “A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT”.\r\n\r\nAs we know the markets live by FEAR &amp; GREED. TRUMP has clouded and confused many aspects of trading at the moment, but FEAR &amp; GREED remain.\r\n\r\nMy original plans via the NZD remain intact and the JPY becomes the “JOKER” trade. Playing the “JOKER” is all down to timing.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD and USD/CAD trades are probably going to be sidelined to a large extent, although I still believe that the GBP/USD to 1.5000 is a real trade this year. With regards to the USD/CAD let’s get some hints from Poloz this week when the BOC releases its latest Monetary Policy Statement.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD “SENTIMENT CHART” has not changed too much from last week. However, I can see greater alignment falling into place.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SENTIMENT-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11475\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SENTIMENT-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"865\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11473\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"723\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11472\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1060\" height=\"1304\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing to add this week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @weeklyfxpremium\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #174 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM\r\nDATE: 14th April 2018\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'a-day-late-and-a-dollar-short', '', '', '2018-04-14 08:28:06', '2018-04-14 13:28:06', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=11492', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
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(11493, 1, '2018-04-14 08:15:48', '2018-04-14 13:15:48', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>1.1. INTRODUCTION</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nThis will sound a little crazy but over the past couple of weeks I have had worries about what to write about. I feel that the FX market is being dominated by TRUMP. Last week I even eluded to my early morning daily routine being altered because like most traders I was waiting on the 7AM EST daily TRUMP tweet to see which way we are heading on the day and would it be RISK ON or a RISK OFF.\r\n\r\nEconomic data seemed to be secondary to the TRUMP media circus that has ring fenced not just equities but also the FX market.\r\n\r\nLet me be straight. It\'s a bloody hard thing trading at the moment. We are range bound, pretty much directionless and sentiment shifts by what seems like the content of the latest tweet.\r\n\r\nI will expand on these thoughts and take matters a couple of stages forward in the “SOAPBOX” section of the blog a little later.\r\n\r\nApart from trading being a pain in the arse, what else is bugging me?\r\n\r\nWell it’s not the snow....\r\n\r\nThe weather has thankfully improved and our new BIG GREEN EGG BBQ is due very soon. This will affect my trading as I will be more outdoors during the day and not tied to my multi screens for hours on end. Better weather = MacBook Air and iPAD Pro days in the near future after the London fix.\r\n\r\nI am maybe a little tired of the current trading ranges. The EUR/USD has been operating inside a range within a larger range for a much longer than expected period of time than I thought, given all the news flows.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11484\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above you can clearly see the two ranges.\r\nLarge range (Maroon Trend lines) 1.2085 to 1.2560\r\nInside range (Black Trend lines) 1.2235 to 1.2475\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhen the EUR/USD is held captive as the most liquid pair in the FX market it adds to my frustration as it limits other moves with other currency pairs and encourages ranges to be developed all over.\r\n\r\nI am NOT saying that there are NOT opportunities to trade, but, it is like walking across a minefield at times. There is always a market within which to trade, however, not every market contains opportunities that fit with your personal style of trading and the temptation to force trades therefore increases each day and if you do not have control of your MINDSET it becomes a challenge.\r\n\r\nI have subscribers to provide for, so the pressure mounts to find opportunities beneath the obvious and that is not always possible. Therefore, they get nothing if I see nothing and we all look at screens....\r\n\r\nThis is what is causing I think my main frustration with the market at the moment. It will change, it always does but looking at the EUR/USD (above) chart once again, it has been inside a 140-pip trading range for just over a month. In a nutshell there is the root cause of my frustration.\r\n\r\nI have often communicated that PATIENCE is vital when trading. Sometimes your best trades are the ones you miss, when price does not align with your TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nMoving on...\r\n\r\nPatience and the ability to adapt to this at times, bizarre marketplace with its corresponding price action, are critical success factors at the moment.\r\n\r\nMy FX PREMIUM subscribers that have been with me for a few years now know that I have embraced change in the way I approach and adapt my trading style to suit the current market. I do NOT have a TRUMP trade in FX and I doubt many traders do. I have read a lot of column inches and I think most of it is tantamount to gambling.\r\n\r\nI have read some frightening stories recently via social media regarding traders failing in this current market through over trading, wrongly sizing trades, starting FX to try and make back cash lost through crypto currency gambling.\r\n\r\nI have said for the past three years and it has been my closing comment on every blog for over a year, that to be successful and to achieve longevity with your trading you need to trade smaller positions with wider stops to basically MANAGE YOUR RISK. This approach keeps you out of the chop fest. This approach works... the FX PREMIUM success proves that point.\r\n\r\nNewbie traders believe probably via Brokers or Social Media that trading FX is straightforward. They jump in with NO idea of leverage and believe that trading with large position sizes generate larger profits. If you are the luckiest bugger alive that approach will work, but in reality, it\'s a sure-fire way to blow up your account and be margin called.\r\n\r\nTrading is lonely. You are on your own. No one is going to cuddle up and say never mind, it’s hard, better luck next time. It is you versus the market. You need real disciplines to achieve trading longevity. It is NOT a get rich quick play. It is hard graft and a particular set of skills are required with the correct MINDSET to be successful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>1.2. THE SOAPBOX:\r\n</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></p>\r\nFOMO has become a very common abbreviation meaning “FEAR OF MISSING OUT”. Right now, I can see this in the stock market and with reading about FX traders blowing up accounts it is obviously apparent in the FX environment as well.\r\n\r\nThe markets are nervous...\r\n\r\nWe have a President in place who judges the economy by how well Wall Street trades.\r\n\r\nI think I am getting punch drunk on the TRUMP approach. It’s predictable, boring, childish, repetitive and frankly if this is what it takes to resonate with his voter base GOD HELP these United States, and NOT GOD BLESS them!\r\n\r\nI want to be balanced in this piece and not just bash TRUMP, however....\r\n\r\nI expected more; he is, despite my increasing lack of tolerance towards the TRUMP style with his awkward stance and approach on the cusp of something big that no other U.S. President could ever have achieved with both a China reciprocal trade deal and North Korean denuclearization. They are not yet signed, sealed or delivered, but my goodness he is closer than anyone from the Oval office has ever been. I think Washington is so fucked up it wouldn’t recognize the enormity of these deals if they were concluded positively. I have said it before and I will say it again, these are HISTORY BOOK ITEMS.\r\n\r\nAll this aside, back in the day, when I managed by sales teams across Europe, I would always consider myself a change manager. Right now, I am not that willing to accept the TRUMP influences and impact as freely as I may have done a few years back.\r\n\r\nThe markets are nervous, they are skittish. They have risen so far so fast on the back of TRUMP, should he for whatever reason lose the Presidency there will be blood on Wall Street.\r\n\r\nThe markets are dealing with: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on SYRIA MISSILE ATTACK</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on TARIFFS</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on CHINA TRADE DEALS</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on RUSSIA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on NORTH KOREA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on TPP</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on NAFTA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION</li>\r\n 	<li>I nearly wrote TRUMP on STORMY DANIELS!</li>\r\n 	<li>The USPS (last Friday) stating that TRUMP’S attack on AMAZON was without substance as the USPS makes money out of the AMAZON postal deal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Also last Friday: James Comey, the sacked by TRUMP ex. FBI Director, who is about to have his book “A Higher Loyalty” released soon, likens TRUMP to a Mafia boss, a congenital liar, an unethical leader devoid of human emotion and a person driven by personal ego. The last part seems pretty accurate. In true TRUMP Presidency style Comey was called by the President of the United States a “slime ball”.</li>\r\n 	<li>In addition; we are now entering earnings season once again.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL is on the March higher because of middle east uncertainty over supply. This will have a knock-on effect into production and distribution costs.\r\n\r\nPLUS:</li>\r\n 	<li>The FED are raising interest rates maybe 3 more times in 2018\r\nand\r\nThe Dot Plot from the FED suggests 4 more rate hikes in 2019.</li>\r\n 	<li>Central Bank divergence talk has gone quiet of late. Let me just say “THIS IS REAL”. Can you imagine USD strength coming back through the markets? Since TRUMP was inaugurated the USD (DXY) has been in a down trend and any bounces so far have been shallow(see DXY chart below).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhat comes first.... USD strength or a “FULL-ON” BEAR MARKET?\r\n\r\nSince the GFC we have until very recently just seen a one-way market. RISK-OFF has NOT been heard much at all until very recently.\r\n\r\nDead right...\r\n\r\nThese markets are nervous. FEAR and GREED are still dominant but who wants to be “A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT?”\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, TRUMP is on a thinner line than ever at the moment between glory and utter failure.\r\n\r\nThe graphic below shows in RED those senior in his administration who are no longer in his team...the sacked list! I’d say if you are on this page listed in BLACK your days could be numbered!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TRUMP-TOP-WHIITE-HOUSE-AIDES.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11474\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TRUMP-TOP-WHIITE-HOUSE-AIDES.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1013\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe markets have an awful lot to consider. I would say that prayers are held most days before trading and that contingency plans are in place for the inevitable.\r\n\r\nThe existing formula cannot possibly have longevity for the U.S. Something has got to give.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11483\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom an FX viewpoint using the DXY chart above, with regards to USD strength it could be a really sharp RIP higher. The TRUMP inauguration trend line resistance comes in around 91.75 (RED LINE) in the DXY\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is above the trend line at 92.54 (GREEN LINE). This could be a trend line break target. At this level it becomes my line in the sand play. 95.19 (SKY BLUE LINE) is a point of interest on any move higher in the next few months.\r\n\r\nFor now, however price action is contained by the 38% Fibonacci retracement.\r\n\r\nIf you DO NOT have this chart on your radar for your decision making at the moment you will do moving forward.\r\n\r\nI do not want to sound alarmist but so much is bubbling under, in my opinion, it’s now becoming just a matter of when NOT if.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> THIS WEEKS IMPORTANT TRADE INFORMATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1. ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>\r\n</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11490\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"952\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-EVENTS-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11491\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-EVENTS-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"958\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>2.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11481\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"727\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.4. USD OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing much has changed from last week. We remain in the TRUMP downtrend and remain range bound as seen on the attached chart.\r\n\r\nLonger timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP inauguration trend line resistance comes in around 91.75 (RED LINE) in the DXY\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is above the trend line at 92.54 (GREEN LINE). This could be a trend line break target. At this level it becomes my line in the sand play. 95.19 (SKY BLUE LINE) is a point of interest on any move higher in the next few months.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11483\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.5. USD TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week...\r\n\r\nThe Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.\r\n\r\nWe have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2240 to 1.2480.  The latter range has been tested twice, but we are just range bound.\r\n\r\nThis pair is waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to move it one way or the other.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11484\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis pair tested 1.4300, more than likely on the EUR/GBP breakdown with lots of selling coming through the markets rather than a flurry of GBP buyers entering the market. We end the week with a nasty looking “shooting star” candle having formed.\r\n\r\nLooks to me that the GBP could be moving lower in the early sessions this week. This would be consistent with the USD Strength that we saw into the latter trading sessions last week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11485\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis pair had strengthened last week off the 0.7650 level, which now looks like quite a formidable level for bulls to start building stops.\r\n\r\nOn Friday last week however, we posted quite a nasty looking “shooting star” candle which I have highlighted on the chart below.\r\n\r\nThe range to play now is 0.7650 to 0.7820.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11482\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nA lot of NZD strength last week. This currency pair was very resilient to geopolitical news over the past two or three weeks which, has continued to surprise me. However, last Friday’s candle was a dent for the NZD bulls touting a move to test the range highs at 0.7435. The bull move stopped at 0.7400.\r\n\r\nI believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7435.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11486\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe Head and Shoulders pattern is in play. The measured move is to 1.2510. It is only invalidated should we see a break back above 1.2930.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11487\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.\r\n\r\nThere is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850. I am a little reluctant to aggressively trade the CHF given its flight to safety and neutrality attraction.\r\n\r\nWe are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11488\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\nWe are still in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.\r\n\r\nWe have broken above 107.00 and I think a short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.\r\n\r\nI am surprised by recent price action with the USD/JPY given all the geopolitical news hanging over the markets. This in itself makes me more cautious in what trades I am considering. This divergence is quite strange.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-MONTHLY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11489\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-MONTHLY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11471\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"808\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 is roughly as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…\r\n\r\nGo to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">TRADER EDUCATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMost weeks, I will add an article in this section based on an area of importance in trading that I feel should be documented. It may not resonate with all traders but for some I hope they find it useful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE 5 MOST COMMON MISTAKES </strong><strong>NEWBIE TRADERS MAKE</strong></span></p>\r\nIt isn’t always easy being a newbie. Whether it’s in taking on a new job, starting your own business, or trying out a different sport, the degree of uncertainty in a new and unfamiliar undertaking can sometimes be overwhelming and push you to make mistakes. Trading is no different. Here are five of the most common mistakes that newbie traders can make:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> TRADING WITHOUT A PLAN OR JOURNAL:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nEven newbies fresh out of school and in their first week of trading know that the market is as unpredictable as the next “American Idol” or “The Voice” sensation. More often than not, in the attempt to make the most out of the opportunities the market presents, you get so lost in the emotions that you forget what you are supposed to do.\r\n\r\nWith your own money on the line, planning and researching trades and not being impulsive are they key goals. To help you achieve this key goal, which is to become a consistently profitable trader, you need a TRADING PLAN and maybe a TRADING JOURNAL.\r\n\r\nIt can be a simple outline of your entry and exit conditions and your RISK MANAGEMENT rules, and it needs to be written down so that you can refer to it, record and review your progress. I use my TRADING PLAN all the time to refer to my entry and exit strategies. Your TRADING PLAN helps to keep you focused.<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> NOT SETTING A STOP LOSS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nTrading without a STOP LOSS is like trying to train a Labrador puppy to walk beside you nicely without a lead (unless you are Caesar Milan). It is impossible and crazy.\r\n\r\nStop Losses are there to protect. They are not 100% guaranteed as the SNB day (when the EUR/CHF peg was removed) illustrated. They are the best insurance you have however, to stop your account being wiped out. Over the past three to four weeks in particular we have seen very volatile markets and short squeezes that could potentially wipe out accounts. Therefore, setting a STOP LOSS allows you to survive and fight another day even if you have a losing trade.\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> REVENGE TRADING:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nYou would not be a trader if you had not ventured into this area at one time or another. Pure and simple REVENGE TRADING is when you get emotional over a losing trade and then try over aggressively to recuperate the loss. I have revenge traded and like most traders my REVENGE TRADE was twice or three times the position of the original trade.\r\n\r\nIt is difficult, but you just have to try to accept the loss and not let your judgement in the future be clouded by your ego. The text books will tell you that instead of REVENGE TRADING you should focus your efforts and energy on analyzing what went wrong and figuring out what you can do to improve your subsequent trades.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LETTING LOSING TRADES RUN:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis is an interesting subject. The textbooks also say that newbie traders often let their losing trades run all the way to their stops instead of cutting losses early.\r\n\r\nAs a POSITION TRADER I am at odds with some of the textbooks. I fully understand that mentally if the trade is going the wrong way, maybe on the back of a significant news event, it may be the correct action to exit a trade early, I have no problem with this.\r\n\r\nHowever, 90% of the Trade setups that I get involved with are based off Fibonacci levels and I usually allow an excess of 10 or 15 pips either way for stops or limits. It has been proved and well known that currencies will run to specific prices, test these levels and then stop and reverse. Therefore, sometimes if you believe that your stop is at a level where there is a lot of price interest I see absolutely no problem letting the trade run because history has taught me that sometimes taking a loss is wrong if there is a huge amount of interest at your Fibonacci level.\r\n\r\nWhen you enter a trade, you assess risk. This risk is based on possibly several indicators and chart analysis techniques. You have to set realistic stop loss levels and sometimes the best policy is not to exit the trade but to wait and let it reverse. This route preserves capital in your broker account and CAPITAL PRESERVATION is key to Forex success.\r\n\r\nKnowing when to let a losing trade runs comes with experience. If you have entered the trade with a clear objective and assessed the risk, you sometimes need to allow the trade to move around within the parameters you have set. Having said that a geopolitical event or poor headline economic data sometimes means that no matter what you have planned, it needs to be forgotten and the trade exited.\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> HAVING UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nHaving goals in all aspects of life help you stay motivated and disciplined, the same can be said of Forex trading.\r\n\r\nThe goals you set have to be realistic and achievable without adding too much stress.\r\n\r\nHand in Hand with setting your goals whether you prefer, daily, weekly or monthly you also need to have a clear understanding of the steps that you need to take to achieve these goals. This is what your TRADING PLAN is for. You detail objectives and the critical success factors that you need to achieve the goals set\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nI am moving forward but progressing slower than in recent times, but still thankfully moving forward.\r\n\r\nMost profits in the past week have come from USD majors, despite my wish not to trade them. The cross-rates have in the main become quite slow moving (everything is relative).\r\nThere is a huge list of geopolitical events hanging over these markets and as noted earlier for a month the EUR/USD has traded inside a 140-pip range.\r\n\r\nI am not hanging around, taking profits at the moment.\r\n\r\nI closed ahead of this weekend many trades that did not fit the criteria of a potential RISK OFF trade. I removed quite a bit of RISK, but I have left the commodity currencies in play for potential USD strength.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW I WILL TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nI have reduced RISK compared with last weekend:\r\n\r\nThis week: 14 x live trades &amp; 5 x limit orders.\r\nLast week: 16 x live trades &amp; 11 x limit orders.\r\n\r\nI have basically commodity and commodity cross-rate pairs LIVE at the moment. I am looking ahead, and I believe we are about to head into, despite earnings season which may delay the inevitable of an equity market sell-off / pullback.\r\n\r\nMy live trades that fit my RISK OFF scenario are: -\r\n\r\nMOM044 AUD/CAD (Short)\r\nFUN914 AUD/USD (Short)\r\n\r\nPOS661 and POS763 NZD/USD (Short)\r\nPOS744 and POS755 GBP/NZD (Long)\r\n\r\nPOS754 GBP/AUD (Long)\r\n\r\n(I have POS756 and POS761 GBP/NZD long trades as limit orders)\r\n\r\nThe JPY trades will not come into play until I see how the USD/JPY reacts. I have a limit order in place at 108.00 regarding the USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nPlenty are trying to short the JPY crosses, without the USD/JPY confirmation. I have tried this in the past and it is a disaster. Hence, I am being patient and waiting.\r\n\r\nI will look to add to RISK OFF trades this week, but it is all dependent on the geopolitical situation.\r\n\r\nI have AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP trades in play at the moment that are not directly in the firing line of the USD should it get hit!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. CROSS-RATES &amp; EMERGING MARKETS PAIRS:</u>\r\n\r\nOver the past week the USD majors suffered from range trading and therefore as a result of that the cross-rate and EM pairs have really been mostly treading water.\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. CROSS RATES</u>:\r\n\r\nNo major changes in the past week. It is all a little boring with cross-rates at the moment. I think I tweeted out a couple of times that it was like a disco from the 1970’s, lots of flashing lights.\r\n\r\nThe only issue I had was despite all the flashing lights, not a lot was actually going on.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3.2. EMERGING MARKETS:</u><u> </u>\r\n\r\nI have not paid much attention here at all.\r\n\r\nThe USD/MXN continues to be under pressure, it is closing in on recent lows at 18.0500.  Mexican interest rates did not change last week, and NAFTA negotiations still hang over this pair. Given the issues with RUSSIA and SYRIA the USD/RUB has been hit quite severely.\r\n\r\nI am not actively looking to trade EM currencies, so my thoughts are very sporadic and possibly very vague for those of you residing in EM countries.\r\n\r\nHowever, make no mistake, should the USD come under serious buying pressure and USD strength comes through the markets I will be adding to my marker trade USD/SEK (MOM045), whilst not an EM currency, this pair is one of my key lead indicators. It is very heavily correlated to and sensitive to USD moves. If this pair RIPS higher then EM currencies will be on my RADAR.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>\r\n\r\nHaving read about 20 reports and commentaries from those who know better than the rest of us, it is now as clear as MUD!\r\n\r\nBasically, the Banks, the high-profile market analysts and TV pundits have no consensus at all... it is a free for all.\r\n\r\nI was not certain last weekend about my longer-term market FUNDAMENTALS, and, I was doubting my abilities to see through the forest to select the tree I wanted. This week reading through all the material didn’t give me any new thoughts away from my original ones, but one factor did leap out.\r\n\r\nAll the geopolitical RISK hanging over these markets counts for something hence my SOAPBOX article “A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT”.\r\n\r\nAs we know the markets live by FEAR &amp; GREED. TRUMP has clouded and confused many aspects of trading at the moment, but FEAR &amp; GREED remain.\r\n\r\nMy original plans via the NZD remain intact and the JPY becomes the “JOKER” trade. Playing the “JOKER” is all down to timing.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD and USD/CAD trades are probably going to be sidelined to a large extent, although I still believe that the GBP/USD to 1.5000 is a real trade this year. With regards to the USD/CAD let’s get some hints from Poloz this week when the BOC releases its latest Monetary Policy Statement.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD “SENTIMENT CHART” has not changed too much from last week. However, I can see greater alignment falling into place.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SENTIMENT-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11475\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SENTIMENT-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"865\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11473\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"723\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11472\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1060\" height=\"1304\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing to add this week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @weeklyfxpremium\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #174 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM\r\nDATE: 14th April 2018\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '11492-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-14 08:15:48', '2018-04-14 13:15:48', '', 11492, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/11492-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(11495, 1, '2018-04-14 08:17:11', '2018-04-14 13:17:11', '<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11472\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1060\" height=\"1304\" /></a>', 'Limit Orders', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9399-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-14 08:17:11', '2018-04-14 13:17:11', '', 9399, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/9399-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(11847, 1049, '2018-05-16 20:51:34', '2018-05-17 01:51:34', '<h4><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Radar Trades Archives:</span></h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\">This Month</span><a href=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/RADAR-05052018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11632\" src=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/RADAR-05052018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"816\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/RADAR-YTD-APRIL-2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11586\" src=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/RADAR-YTD-APRIL-2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"986\" height=\"960\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-COMPLETE-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10712\" src=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-COMPLETE-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"866\" height=\"954\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8807\" src=\"http://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/RADAR-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"856\" height=\"938\" />\r\n<a href=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-2015-COMP-copy.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10670\" src=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-2015-COMP-copy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"429\" height=\"449\" /></a><a href=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/radar-trades/radar-2015-comp/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6985\">\r\n</a>\r\n<a href=\"http://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-2014-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-8858\" src=\"http://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-2014-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"489\" height=\"487\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>', 'Radar Trades', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2524-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-05-16 20:51:34', '2018-05-17 01:51:34', '', 2524, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/05/2524-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(11848, 1049, '2018-05-16 20:52:06', '2018-05-17 01:52:06', '<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\">This Month</span><a href=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/MOMENTUM-TRADES-05052018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11633\" src=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/MOMENTUM-TRADES-05052018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"816\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/MOMENTUM-YTD-APRIL-2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11588\" src=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/MOMENTUM-YTD-APRIL-2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"960\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n</div>', 'Momentum Trades', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10540-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-05-16 20:52:06', '2018-05-17 01:52:06', '', 10540, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/05/10540-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(11849, 1049, '2018-05-16 20:54:25', '2018-05-17 01:54:25', '<a href=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/RISK-MANAGEMENT-POSITION-SIZING-01012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11658\" src=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/RISK-MANAGEMENT-POSITION-SIZING-01012018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1326\" height=\"1242\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FX_Weekly_Excel_Premium.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11538\" src=\"https://staging1.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FX_Weekly_Excel_Premium.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" height=\"115\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>RISK MANAGEMENT:</strong></span>\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">MY POSITION SIZING from TRADE SET UPS</span>\r\n(This document refers to the excel spreadsheet titled RISK MANAGEMENT)</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">An explanation….</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Firstly, this is NOT an instruction.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">RISK TOLERANCE is a very personal thing when it comes to trading. My RISK TOLERANCE could be larger or smaller than yours.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">We all have different Financial situations and our Broker Accounts are all different vis-à-vis our trading balances.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Therefore, please DO NOT treat this as something in tablets of stone. You MUST adapt this to your trading style and most importantly your RISK.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">This year (2018), I have introduced another trading style (MOMENTUM TRADES) to try to keep my trading adaptive and fresh to the marketplace and also meet the needs of my subscribers.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">The POSITION SIZING TABLE (excel spreadsheet) emanated from the fact that some subscribers wanting to know roughly what RISK I was applying to trades back in 2016.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">It is simply my RISK per trade taken based upon which one of my trading accounts the trade emanates from and related to the TRADE STYLE taken.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">It is broken down by trading pairs; it shows you what I would usually trade in position size (LOTS) for a 100% trade; and then breaks it down by the percentages that I quote on twitter via @ThePremService and through the email excel trade sheets that follow the tweet.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">It is based only on LOT SIZING per trade.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">When I post say 25% this is my entry size.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">If I add to that trade with a second trade again at 25% and have two trades running I will be at 50%. i.e. EUR/USD two at 25% trades = 5 x MINI + 5 x MINI = 10 x MINI LOTS = 1 STANDARD lot.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">The percentage RISK per trade is something else and is taken into considering by the position of the STOP LOSS. i.e. 3% risk per trade on a $100,000 account = $3,000 maximum RISK.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">REMEMBER &amp; NOTE: As everyone trades with different sizes of accounts you need to, if you were matching my trades, trade with the amount of lots you can afford to meet my STOP LOSS and be inside your own RISK TOLERANCE levels. As stated mine is 3%.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">I have subscribers that trade with bigger accounts that I do and many trade micro lots and mini lots only.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">I can only indicate what RISK that I am applying based upon my account sizes. You must relate this to your own personal circumstances.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Scott Pickering</span>\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> The Pip Accumulator</span>\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> January 1st 2018</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Risk Management', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10548-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-05-16 20:54:25', '2018-05-17 01:54:25', '', 10548, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/05/10548-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(11499, 1, '2018-04-14 08:19:55', '2018-04-14 13:19:55', '<h4>Fundamental Trades Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FUNDAMENTAL-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11479\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FUNDAMENTAL-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"786\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/FUN-MARCH-YTD-2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11362\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/FUN-MARCH-YTD-2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"980\" height=\"1102\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/FUNDAMENTAL-YTD-JULY31.png\">\r\n</a>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUNDAMENTAL-2017-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10713\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUNDAMENTAL-2017-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"866\" height=\"952\" /></a></h2>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8811\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FUN-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"874\" height=\"942\" />\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUN-2015-COMP-copy.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10671\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUN-2015-COMP-copy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"430\" height=\"442\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FUNDAMENTAL-YEAR-TO-DATE-2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8860\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FUNDAMENTAL-YEAR-TO-DATE-2014.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"710\" height=\"754\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>', 'FUNDAMENTAL TRADES', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3106-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-14 08:19:55', '2018-04-14 13:19:55', '', 3106, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/3106-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(11500, 1, '2018-04-14 08:20:59', '2018-04-14 13:20:59', '<h4>POSITION TRADES Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/POSITION-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11480\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/POSITION-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"789\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/POS1-19112016.png\">\r\n</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/POS-MARCH-YTD-2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11365\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/POS-MARCH-YTD-2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"978\" height=\"1106\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/POSITION-COMPLETE-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10714\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/POSITION-COMPLETE-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"946\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/POS-2016-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8814\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/POS-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"816\" height=\"946\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>', 'POSITION TRADES', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '6965-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-14 08:20:59', '2018-04-14 13:20:59', '', 6965, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/6965-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(11501, 1, '2018-04-14 08:28:06', '2018-04-14 13:28:06', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>1.1. INTRODUCTION</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nThis will sound a little crazy but over the past couple of weeks I have had worries about what to write about. I feel that the FX market is being dominated by TRUMP. Last week I even eluded to my early morning daily routine being altered because like most traders I was waiting on the 7AM EST daily TRUMP tweet to see which way we are heading on the day and would it be RISK ON or a RISK OFF.\r\n\r\nEconomic data seemed to be secondary to the TRUMP media circus that has ring fenced not just equities but also the FX market.\r\n\r\nLet me be straight. It\'s a bloody hard thing trading at the moment. We are range bound, pretty much directionless and sentiment shifts by what seems like the content of the latest tweet.\r\n\r\nI will expand on these thoughts and take matters a couple of stages forward in the “SOAPBOX” section of the blog a little later.\r\n\r\nApart from trading being a pain in the arse, what else is bugging me?\r\n\r\nWell it’s not the snow....\r\n\r\nThe weather has thankfully improved and our new BIG GREEN EGG BBQ is due very soon. This will affect my trading as I will be more outdoors during the day and not tied to my multi screens for hours on end. Better weather = MacBook Air and iPAD Pro days in the near future after the London fix.\r\n\r\nI am maybe a little tired of the current trading ranges. The EUR/USD has been operating inside a range within a larger range for a much longer than expected period of time than I thought, given all the news flows.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11484\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above you can clearly see the two ranges.\r\nLarge range (Maroon Trend lines) 1.2085 to 1.2560\r\nInside range (Black Trend lines) 1.2235 to 1.2475\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhen the EUR/USD is held captive as the most liquid pair in the FX market it adds to my frustration as it limits other moves with other currency pairs and encourages ranges to be developed all over.\r\n\r\nI am NOT saying that there are NOT opportunities to trade, but, it is like walking across a minefield at times. There is always a market within which to trade, however, not every market contains opportunities that fit with your personal style of trading and the temptation to force trades therefore increases each day and if you do not have control of your MINDSET it becomes a challenge.\r\n\r\nI have subscribers to provide for, so the pressure mounts to find opportunities beneath the obvious and that is not always possible. Therefore, they get nothing if I see nothing and we all look at screens....\r\n\r\nThis is what is causing I think my main frustration with the market at the moment. It will change, it always does but looking at the EUR/USD (above) chart once again, it has been inside a 140-pip trading range for just over a month. In a nutshell there is the root cause of my frustration.\r\n\r\nI have often communicated that PATIENCE is vital when trading. Sometimes your best trades are the ones you miss, when price does not align with your TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nMoving on...\r\n\r\nPatience and the ability to adapt to this at times, bizarre marketplace with its corresponding price action, are critical success factors at the moment.\r\n\r\nMy FX PREMIUM subscribers that have been with me for a few years now know that I have embraced change in the way I approach and adapt my trading style to suit the current market. I do NOT have a TRUMP trade in FX and I doubt many traders do. I have read a lot of column inches and I think most of it is tantamount to gambling.\r\n\r\nI have read some frightening stories recently via social media regarding traders failing in this current market through over trading, wrongly sizing trades, starting FX to try and make back cash lost through crypto currency gambling.\r\n\r\nI have said for the past three years and it has been my closing comment on every blog for over a year, that to be successful and to achieve longevity with your trading you need to trade smaller positions with wider stops to basically MANAGE YOUR RISK. This approach keeps you out of the chop fest. This approach works... the FX PREMIUM success proves that point.\r\n\r\nNewbie traders believe probably via Brokers or Social Media that trading FX is straightforward. They jump in with NO idea of leverage and believe that trading with large position sizes generate larger profits. If you are the luckiest bugger alive that approach will work, but in reality, it\'s a sure-fire way to blow up your account and be margin called.\r\n\r\nTrading is lonely. You are on your own. No one is going to cuddle up and say never mind, it’s hard, better luck next time. It is you versus the market. You need real disciplines to achieve trading longevity. It is NOT a get rich quick play. It is hard graft and a particular set of skills are required with the correct MINDSET to be successful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>1.2. THE SOAPBOX:\r\n</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT</span></strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFOMO has become a very common abbreviation meaning “FEAR OF MISSING OUT”. Right now, I can see this in the stock market and with reading about FX traders blowing up accounts it is obviously apparent in the FX environment as well.\r\n\r\nThe markets are nervous...\r\n\r\nWe have a President in place who judges the economy by how well Wall Street trades.\r\n\r\nI think I am getting punch drunk on the TRUMP approach. It’s predictable, boring, childish, repetitive and frankly if this is what it takes to resonate with his voter base GOD HELP these United States, and NOT GOD BLESS them!\r\n\r\nI want to be balanced in this piece and not just bash TRUMP, however....\r\n\r\nI expected more; he is, despite my increasing lack of tolerance towards the TRUMP style with his awkward stance and approach on the cusp of something big that no other U.S. President could ever have achieved with both a China reciprocal trade deal and North Korean denuclearization. They are not yet signed, sealed or delivered, but my goodness he is closer than anyone from the Oval office has ever been. I think Washington is so fucked up it wouldn’t recognize the enormity of these deals if they were concluded positively. I have said it before and I will say it again, these are HISTORY BOOK ITEMS.\r\n\r\nAll this aside, back in the day, when I managed by sales teams across Europe, I would always consider myself a change manager. Right now, I am not that willing to accept the TRUMP influences and impact as freely as I may have done a few years back.\r\n\r\nThe markets are nervous, they are skittish. They have risen so far so fast on the back of TRUMP, should he for whatever reason lose the Presidency there will be blood on Wall Street.\r\n\r\nThe markets are dealing with: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on SYRIA MISSILE ATTACK</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on TARIFFS</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on CHINA TRADE DEALS</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on RUSSIA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on NORTH KOREA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on TPP</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on NAFTA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION</li>\r\n 	<li>I nearly wrote TRUMP on STORMY DANIELS!</li>\r\n 	<li>The USPS (last Friday) stating that TRUMP’S attack on AMAZON was without substance as the USPS makes money out of the AMAZON postal deal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Also last Friday: James Comey, the sacked by TRUMP ex. FBI Director, who is about to have his book “A Higher Loyalty” released soon, likens TRUMP to a Mafia boss, a congenital liar, an unethical leader devoid of human emotion and a person driven by personal ego. The last part seems pretty accurate. In true TRUMP Presidency style Comey was called by the President of the United States a “slime ball”.</li>\r\n 	<li>In addition; we are now entering earnings season once again.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL is on the March higher because of middle east uncertainty over supply. This will have a knock-on effect into production and distribution costs.PLUS:</li>\r\n 	<li>The FED are raising interest rates maybe 3 more times in 2018\r\nand\r\nThe Dot Plot from the FED suggests 4 more rate hikes in 2019.</li>\r\n 	<li>Central Bank divergence talk has gone quiet of late. Let me just say “THIS IS REAL”. Can you imagine USD strength coming back through the markets? Since TRUMP was inaugurated the USD (DXY) has been in a down trend and any bounces so far have been shallow(see DXY chart below).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhat comes first.... USD strength or a “FULL-ON” BEAR MARKET?\r\n\r\nSince the GFC we have until very recently just seen a one-way market. RISK-OFF has NOT been heard much at all until very recently.\r\n\r\nDead right...\r\n\r\nThese markets are nervous. FEAR and GREED are still dominant but who wants to be “A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT?”\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, TRUMP is on a thinner line than ever at the moment between glory and utter failure.\r\n\r\nThe graphic below shows in RED those senior in his administration who are no longer in his team...the sacked list! I’d say if you are on this page listed in BLACK your days could be numbered!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TRUMP-TOP-WHIITE-HOUSE-AIDES.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11474\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TRUMP-TOP-WHIITE-HOUSE-AIDES.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1013\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe markets have an awful lot to consider. I would say that prayers are held most days before trading and that contingency plans are in place for the inevitable.\r\n\r\nThe existing formula cannot possibly have longevity for the U.S. Something has got to give.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11483\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom an FX viewpoint using the DXY chart above, with regards to USD strength it could be a really sharp RIP higher. The TRUMP inauguration trend line resistance comes in around 91.75 (RED LINE) in the DXY\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is above the trend line at 92.54 (GREEN LINE). This could be a trend line break target. At this level it becomes my line in the sand play. 95.19 (SKY BLUE LINE) is a point of interest on any move higher in the next few months.\r\n\r\nFor now, however price action is contained by the 38% Fibonacci retracement.\r\n\r\nIf you DO NOT have this chart on your radar for your decision making at the moment you will do moving forward.\r\n\r\nI do not want to sound alarmist but so much is bubbling under, in my opinion, it’s now becoming just a matter of when NOT if.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> THIS WEEKS IMPORTANT TRADE INFORMATION:</span></strong>&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1. ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>\r\n</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11490\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"952\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-EVENTS-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11491\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-EVENTS-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"958\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>2.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11481\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"727\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.4. USD OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing much has changed from last week. We remain in the TRUMP downtrend and remain range bound as seen on the attached chart.\r\n\r\nLonger timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP inauguration trend line resistance comes in around 91.75 (RED LINE) in the DXY\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is above the trend line at 92.54 (GREEN LINE). This could be a trend line break target. At this level it becomes my line in the sand play. 95.19 (SKY BLUE LINE) is a point of interest on any move higher in the next few months.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11483\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.5. USD TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week...\r\n\r\nThe Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.\r\n\r\nWe have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2240 to 1.2480.  The latter range has been tested twice, but we are just range bound.\r\n\r\nThis pair is waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to move it one way or the other.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11484\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis pair tested 1.4300, more than likely on the EUR/GBP breakdown with lots of selling coming through the markets rather than a flurry of GBP buyers entering the market. We end the week with a nasty looking “shooting star” candle having formed.\r\n\r\nLooks to me that the GBP could be moving lower in the early sessions this week. This would be consistent with the USD Strength that we saw into the latter trading sessions last week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11485\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis pair had strengthened last week off the 0.7650 level, which now looks like quite a formidable level for bulls to start building stops.\r\n\r\nOn Friday last week however, we posted quite a nasty looking “shooting star” candle which I have highlighted on the chart below.\r\n\r\nThe range to play now is 0.7650 to 0.7820.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11482\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nA lot of NZD strength last week. This currency pair was very resilient to geopolitical news over the past two or three weeks which, has continued to surprise me. However, last Friday’s candle was a dent for the NZD bulls touting a move to test the range highs at 0.7435. The bull move stopped at 0.7400.\r\n\r\nI believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7435.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11486\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe Head and Shoulders pattern is in play. The measured move is to 1.2510. It is only invalidated should we see a break back above 1.2930.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11487\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.\r\n\r\nThere is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850. I am a little reluctant to aggressively trade the CHF given its flight to safety and neutrality attraction.\r\n\r\nWe are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11488\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\nWe are still in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.\r\n\r\nWe have broken above 107.00 and I think a short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.\r\n\r\nI am surprised by recent price action with the USD/JPY given all the geopolitical news hanging over the markets. This in itself makes me more cautious in what trades I am considering. This divergence is quite strange.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-MONTHLY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11489\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-MONTHLY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11471\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"808\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 is roughly as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…\r\n\r\nGo to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">TRADER EDUCATION:</span></strong>&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMost weeks, I will add an article in this section based on an area of importance in trading that I feel should be documented. It may not resonate with all traders but for some I hope they find it useful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE 5 MOST COMMON MISTAKES </strong><strong>NEWBIE TRADERS MAKE</strong></span></p>\r\nIt isn’t always easy being a newbie. Whether it’s in taking on a new job, starting your own business, or trying out a different sport, the degree of uncertainty in a new and unfamiliar undertaking can sometimes be overwhelming and push you to make mistakes. Trading is no different. Here are five of the most common mistakes that newbie traders can make:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> TRADING WITHOUT A PLAN OR JOURNAL:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nEven newbies fresh out of school and in their first week of trading know that the market is as unpredictable as the next “American Idol” or “The Voice” sensation. More often than not, in the attempt to make the most out of the opportunities the market presents, you get so lost in the emotions that you forget what you are supposed to do.\r\n\r\nWith your own money on the line, planning and researching trades and not being impulsive are they key goals. To help you achieve this key goal, which is to become a consistently profitable trader, you need a TRADING PLAN and maybe a TRADING JOURNAL.\r\n\r\nIt can be a simple outline of your entry and exit conditions and your RISK MANAGEMENT rules, and it needs to be written down so that you can refer to it, record and review your progress. I use my TRADING PLAN all the time to refer to my entry and exit strategies. Your TRADING PLAN helps to keep you focused.<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> NOT SETTING A STOP LOSS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nTrading without a STOP LOSS is like trying to train a Labrador puppy to walk beside you nicely without a lead (unless you are Caesar Milan). It is impossible and crazy.\r\n\r\nStop Losses are there to protect. They are not 100% guaranteed as the SNB day (when the EUR/CHF peg was removed) illustrated. They are the best insurance you have however, to stop your account being wiped out. Over the past three to four weeks in particular we have seen very volatile markets and short squeezes that could potentially wipe out accounts. Therefore, setting a STOP LOSS allows you to survive and fight another day even if you have a losing trade.\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> REVENGE TRADING:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nYou would not be a trader if you had not ventured into this area at one time or another. Pure and simple REVENGE TRADING is when you get emotional over a losing trade and then try over aggressively to recuperate the loss. I have revenge traded and like most traders my REVENGE TRADE was twice or three times the position of the original trade.\r\n\r\nIt is difficult, but you just have to try to accept the loss and not let your judgement in the future be clouded by your ego. The text books will tell you that instead of REVENGE TRADING you should focus your efforts and energy on analyzing what went wrong and figuring out what you can do to improve your subsequent trades.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LETTING LOSING TRADES RUN:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis is an interesting subject. The textbooks also say that newbie traders often let their losing trades run all the way to their stops instead of cutting losses early.\r\n\r\nAs a POSITION TRADER I am at odds with some of the textbooks. I fully understand that mentally if the trade is going the wrong way, maybe on the back of a significant news event, it may be the correct action to exit a trade early, I have no problem with this.\r\n\r\nHowever, 90% of the Trade setups that I get involved with are based off Fibonacci levels and I usually allow an excess of 10 or 15 pips either way for stops or limits. It has been proved and well known that currencies will run to specific prices, test these levels and then stop and reverse. Therefore, sometimes if you believe that your stop is at a level where there is a lot of price interest I see absolutely no problem letting the trade run because history has taught me that sometimes taking a loss is wrong if there is a huge amount of interest at your Fibonacci level.\r\n\r\nWhen you enter a trade, you assess risk. This risk is based on possibly several indicators and chart analysis techniques. You have to set realistic stop loss levels and sometimes the best policy is not to exit the trade but to wait and let it reverse. This route preserves capital in your broker account and CAPITAL PRESERVATION is key to Forex success.\r\n\r\nKnowing when to let a losing trade runs comes with experience. If you have entered the trade with a clear objective and assessed the risk, you sometimes need to allow the trade to move around within the parameters you have set. Having said that a geopolitical event or poor headline economic data sometimes means that no matter what you have planned, it needs to be forgotten and the trade exited.\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> HAVING UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nHaving goals in all aspects of life help you stay motivated and disciplined, the same can be said of Forex trading.\r\n\r\nThe goals you set have to be realistic and achievable without adding too much stress.\r\n\r\nHand in Hand with setting your goals whether you prefer, daily, weekly or monthly you also need to have a clear understanding of the steps that you need to take to achieve these goals. This is what your TRADING PLAN is for. You detail objectives and the critical success factors that you need to achieve the goals set\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nI am moving forward but progressing slower than in recent times, but still thankfully moving forward.\r\n\r\nMost profits in the past week have come from USD majors, despite my wish not to trade them. The cross-rates have in the main become quite slow moving (everything is relative).\r\nThere is a huge list of geopolitical events hanging over these markets and as noted earlier for a month the EUR/USD has traded inside a 140-pip range.\r\n\r\nI am not hanging around, taking profits at the moment.\r\n\r\nI closed ahead of this weekend many trades that did not fit the criteria of a potential RISK OFF trade. I removed quite a bit of RISK, but I have left the commodity currencies in play for potential USD strength.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW I WILL TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nI have reduced RISK compared with last weekend:\r\n\r\nThis week: 14 x live trades &amp; 5 x limit orders.\r\nLast week: 16 x live trades &amp; 11 x limit orders.\r\n\r\nI have basically commodity and commodity cross-rate pairs LIVE at the moment. I am looking ahead, and I believe we are about to head into, despite earnings season which may delay the inevitable of an equity market sell-off / pullback.\r\n\r\nMy live trades that fit my RISK OFF scenario are: -\r\n\r\nMOM044 AUD/CAD (Short)\r\nFUN914 AUD/USD (Short)\r\n\r\nPOS661 and POS763 NZD/USD (Short)\r\nPOS744 and POS755 GBP/NZD (Long)\r\n\r\nPOS754 GBP/AUD (Long)\r\n\r\n(I have POS756 and POS761 GBP/NZD long trades as limit orders)\r\n\r\nThe JPY trades will not come into play until I see how the USD/JPY reacts. I have a limit order in place at 108.00 regarding the USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nPlenty are trying to short the JPY crosses, without the USD/JPY confirmation. I have tried this in the past and it is a disaster. Hence, I am being patient and waiting.\r\n\r\nI will look to add to RISK OFF trades this week, but it is all dependent on the geopolitical situation.\r\n\r\nI have AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP trades in play at the moment that are not directly in the firing line of the USD should it get hit!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. CROSS-RATES &amp; EMERGING MARKETS PAIRS:</u>\r\n\r\nOver the past week the USD majors suffered from range trading and therefore as a result of that the cross-rate and EM pairs have really been mostly treading water.\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. CROSS RATES</u>:\r\n\r\nNo major changes in the past week. It is all a little boring with cross-rates at the moment. I think I tweeted out a couple of times that it was like a disco from the 1970’s, lots of flashing lights.\r\n\r\nThe only issue I had was despite all the flashing lights, not a lot was actually going on.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3.2. EMERGING MARKETS:</u><u> </u>\r\n\r\nI have not paid much attention here at all.\r\n\r\nThe USD/MXN continues to be under pressure, it is closing in on recent lows at 18.0500.  Mexican interest rates did not change last week, and NAFTA negotiations still hang over this pair. Given the issues with RUSSIA and SYRIA the USD/RUB has been hit quite severely.\r\n\r\nI am not actively looking to trade EM currencies, so my thoughts are very sporadic and possibly very vague for those of you residing in EM countries.\r\n\r\nHowever, make no mistake, should the USD come under serious buying pressure and USD strength comes through the markets I will be adding to my marker trade USD/SEK (MOM045), whilst not an EM currency, this pair is one of my key lead indicators. It is very heavily correlated to and sensitive to USD moves. If this pair RIPS higher then EM currencies will be on my RADAR.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>\r\n\r\nHaving read about 20 reports and commentaries from those who know better than the rest of us, it is now as clear as MUD!\r\n\r\nBasically, the Banks, the high-profile market analysts and TV pundits have no consensus at all... it is a free for all.\r\n\r\nI was not certain last weekend about my longer-term market FUNDAMENTALS, and, I was doubting my abilities to see through the forest to select the tree I wanted. This week reading through all the material didn’t give me any new thoughts away from my original ones, but one factor did leap out.\r\n\r\nAll the geopolitical RISK hanging over these markets counts for something hence my SOAPBOX article “A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT”.\r\n\r\nAs we know the markets live by FEAR &amp; GREED. TRUMP has clouded and confused many aspects of trading at the moment, but FEAR &amp; GREED remain.\r\n\r\nMy original plans via the NZD remain intact and the JPY becomes the “JOKER” trade. Playing the “JOKER” is all down to timing.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD and USD/CAD trades are probably going to be sidelined to a large extent, although I still believe that the GBP/USD to 1.5000 is a real trade this year. With regards to the USD/CAD let’s get some hints from Poloz this week when the BOC releases its latest Monetary Policy Statement.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD “SENTIMENT CHART” has not changed too much from last week. However, I can see greater alignment falling into place.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SENTIMENT-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11475\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SENTIMENT-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"865\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11473\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"723\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11472\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1060\" height=\"1304\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing to add this week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @weeklyfxpremium\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #174 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM\r\nDATE: 14th April 2018\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '11492-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-14 08:28:06', '2018-04-14 13:28:06', '', 11492, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/11492-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(11502, 1, '2018-04-14 08:52:12', '2018-04-14 13:52:12', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>1.1. INTRODUCTION</u><u>:</u><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nThis will sound a little crazy but over the past couple of weeks I have had worries about what to write about. I feel that the FX market is being dominated by TRUMP. Last week I even eluded to my early morning daily routine being altered because like most traders I was waiting on the 7AM EST daily TRUMP tweet to see which way we are heading on the day and would it be RISK ON or a RISK OFF.\r\n\r\nEconomic data seemed to be secondary to the TRUMP media circus that has ring fenced not just equities but also the FX market.\r\n\r\nLet me be straight. It\'s a bloody hard thing trading at the moment. We are range bound, pretty much directionless and sentiment shifts by what seems like the content of the latest tweet.\r\n\r\nI will expand on these thoughts and take matters a couple of stages forward in the “SOAPBOX” section of the blog a little later.\r\n\r\nApart from trading being a pain in the arse, what else is bugging me?\r\n\r\nWell it’s not the snow....\r\n\r\nThe weather has thankfully improved and our new BIG GREEN EGG BBQ is due very soon. This will affect my trading as I will be more outdoors during the day and not tied to my multi screens for hours on end. Better weather = MacBook Air and iPAD Pro days in the near future after the London fix.\r\n\r\nI am maybe a little tired of the current trading ranges. The EUR/USD has been operating inside a range within a larger range for a much longer than expected period of time than I thought, given all the news flows.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11484\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above you can clearly see the two ranges.\r\nLarge range (Maroon Trend lines) 1.2085 to 1.2560\r\nInside range (Black Trend lines) 1.2235 to 1.2475\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhen the EUR/USD is held captive as the most liquid pair in the FX market it adds to my frustration as it limits other moves with other currency pairs and encourages ranges to be developed all over.\r\n\r\nI am NOT saying that there are NOT opportunities to trade, but, it is like walking across a minefield at times. There is always a market within which to trade, however, not every market contains opportunities that fit with your personal style of trading and the temptation to force trades therefore increases each day and if you do not have control of your MINDSET it becomes a challenge.\r\n\r\nI have subscribers to provide for, so the pressure mounts to find opportunities beneath the obvious and that is not always possible. Therefore, they get nothing if I see nothing and we all look at screens....\r\n\r\nThis is what is causing I think my main frustration with the market at the moment. It will change, it always does but looking at the EUR/USD (above) chart once again, it has been inside a 140-pip trading range for just over a month. In a nutshell there is the root cause of my frustration.\r\n\r\nI have often communicated that PATIENCE is vital when trading. Sometimes your best trades are the ones you miss, when price does not align with your TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nMoving on...\r\n\r\nPatience and the ability to adapt to this at times, bizarre marketplace with its corresponding price action, are critical success factors at the moment.\r\n\r\nMy FX PREMIUM subscribers that have been with me for a few years now know that I have embraced change in the way I approach and adapt my trading style to suit the current market. I do NOT have a TRUMP trade in FX and I doubt many traders do. I have read a lot of column inches and I think most of it is tantamount to gambling.\r\n\r\nI have read some frightening stories recently via social media regarding traders failing in this current market through over trading, wrongly sizing trades, starting FX to try and make back cash lost through crypto currency gambling.\r\n\r\nI have said for the past three years and it has been my closing comment on every blog for over a year, that to be successful and to achieve longevity with your trading you need to trade smaller positions with wider stops to basically MANAGE YOUR RISK. This approach keeps you out of the chop fest. This approach works... the FX PREMIUM success proves that point.\r\n\r\nNewbie traders believe probably via Brokers or Social Media that trading FX is straightforward. They jump in with NO idea of leverage and believe that trading with large position sizes generate larger profits. If you are the luckiest bugger alive that approach will work, but in reality, it\'s a sure-fire way to blow up your account and be margin called.\r\n\r\nTrading is lonely. You are on your own. No one is going to cuddle up and say never mind, it’s hard, better luck next time. It is you versus the market. You need real disciplines to achieve trading longevity. It is NOT a get rich quick play. It is hard graft and a particular set of skills are required with the correct MINDSET to be successful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>1.2. THE SOAPBOX:\r\n</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></p>\r\nFOMO has become a very common abbreviation meaning “FEAR OF MISSING OUT”. Right now, I can see this in the stock market and with reading about FX traders blowing up accounts it is obviously apparent in the FX environment as well.\r\n\r\nThe markets are nervous...\r\n\r\nWe have a President in place who judges the economy by how well Wall Street trades.\r\n\r\nI think I am getting punch drunk on the TRUMP approach. It’s predictable, boring, childish, repetitive and frankly if this is what it takes to resonate with his voter base GOD HELP these United States, and NOT GOD BLESS them!\r\n\r\nI want to be balanced in this piece and not just bash TRUMP, however....\r\n\r\nI expected more; he is, despite my increasing lack of tolerance towards the TRUMP style with his awkward stance and approach on the cusp of something big that no other U.S. President could ever have achieved with both a China reciprocal trade deal and North Korean denuclearization. They are not yet signed, sealed or delivered, but my goodness he is closer than anyone from the Oval office has ever been. I think Washington is so fucked up it wouldn’t recognize the enormity of these deals if they were concluded positively. I have said it before and I will say it again, these are HISTORY BOOK ITEMS.\r\n\r\nAll this aside, back in the day, when I managed by sales teams across Europe, I would always consider myself a change manager. Right now, I am not that willing to accept the TRUMP influences and impact as freely as I may have done a few years back.\r\n\r\nThe markets are nervous, they are skittish. They have risen so far so fast on the back of TRUMP, should he for whatever reason lose the Presidency there will be blood on Wall Street.\r\n\r\nThe markets are dealing with: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on SYRIA MISSILE ATTACK</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on TARIFFS</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on CHINA TRADE DEALS</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on RUSSIA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on NORTH KOREA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on TPP</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on NAFTA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION</li>\r\n 	<li>I nearly wrote TRUMP on STORMY DANIELS!</li>\r\n 	<li>The USPS (last Friday) stating that TRUMP’S attack on AMAZON was without substance as the USPS makes money out of the AMAZON postal deal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Also last Friday: James Comey, the sacked by TRUMP ex. FBI Director, who is about to have his book “A Higher Loyalty” released soon, likens TRUMP to a Mafia boss, a congenital liar, an unethical leader devoid of human emotion and a person driven by personal ego. The last part seems pretty accurate. In true TRUMP Presidency style Comey was called by the President of the United States a “slime ball”.</li>\r\n 	<li>In addition; we are now entering earnings season once again.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL is on the March higher because of middle east uncertainty over supply. This will have a knock-on effect into production and distribution costs.\r\n\r\nPLUS:</li>\r\n 	<li>The FED are raising interest rates maybe 3 more times in 2018\r\nand\r\nThe Dot Plot from the FED suggests 4 more rate hikes in 2019.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Central Bank divergence talk has gone quiet of late. Let me just say “THIS IS REAL”. Can you imagine USD strength coming back through the markets? Since TRUMP was inaugurated the USD (DXY) has been in a down trend and any bounces so far have been shallow(see DXY chart below).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhat comes first.... USD strength or a “FULL-ON” BEAR MARKET?\r\n\r\nSince the GFC we have until very recently just seen a one-way market. RISK-OFF has NOT been heard much at all until very recently.\r\n\r\nDead right...\r\n\r\nThese markets are nervous. FEAR and GREED are still dominant but who wants to be “A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT?”\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, TRUMP is on a thinner line than ever at the moment between glory and utter failure.\r\n\r\nThe graphic below shows in RED those senior in his administration who are no longer in his team...the sacked list! I’d say if you are on this page listed in BLACK your days could be numbered!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TRUMP-TOP-WHIITE-HOUSE-AIDES.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11474\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TRUMP-TOP-WHIITE-HOUSE-AIDES.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1013\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe markets have an awful lot to consider. I would say that prayers are held most days before trading and that contingency plans are in place for the inevitable.\r\n\r\nThe existing formula cannot possibly have longevity for the U.S. Something has got to give.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11483\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom an FX viewpoint using the DXY chart above, with regards to USD strength it could be a really sharp RIP higher. The TRUMP inauguration trend line resistance comes in around 91.75 (RED LINE) in the DXY\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is above the trend line at 92.54 (GREEN LINE). This could be a trend line break target. At this level it becomes my line in the sand play. 95.19 (SKY BLUE LINE) is a point of interest on any move higher in the next few months.\r\n\r\nFor now, however price action is contained by the 38% Fibonacci retracement.\r\n\r\nIf you DO NOT have this chart on your radar for your decision making at the moment you will do moving forward.\r\n\r\nI do not want to sound alarmist but so much is bubbling under, in my opinion, it’s now becoming just a matter of when NOT if.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> THIS WEEKS IMPORTANT TRADE INFORMATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1. ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>\r\n</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11490\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"952\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.2. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-EVENTS-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11491\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-EVENTS-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"958\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>2.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11481\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"727\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.4. USD OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing much has changed from last week. We remain in the TRUMP downtrend and remain range bound as seen on the attached chart.\r\n\r\nLonger timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP inauguration trend line resistance comes in around 91.75 (RED LINE) in the DXY\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is above the trend line at 92.54 (GREEN LINE). This could be a trend line break target. At this level it becomes my line in the sand play. 95.19 (SKY BLUE LINE) is a point of interest on any move higher in the next few months.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11483\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.5. USD TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week...\r\n\r\nThe Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.\r\n\r\nWe have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2240 to 1.2480.  The latter range has been tested twice, but we are just range bound.\r\n\r\nThis pair is waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to move it one way or the other.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11484\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis pair tested 1.4300, more than likely on the EUR/GBP breakdown with lots of selling coming through the markets rather than a flurry of GBP buyers entering the market. We end the week with a nasty looking “shooting star” candle having formed.\r\n\r\nLooks to me that the GBP could be moving lower in the early sessions this week. This would be consistent with the USD Strength that we saw into the latter trading sessions last week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11485\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis pair had strengthened last week off the 0.7650 level, which now looks like quite a formidable level for bulls to start building stops.\r\n\r\nOn Friday last week however, we posted quite a nasty looking “shooting star” candle which I have highlighted on the chart below.\r\n\r\nThe range to play now is 0.7650 to 0.7820.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11482\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nA lot of NZD strength last week. This currency pair was very resilient to geopolitical news over the past two or three weeks which, has continued to surprise me. However, last Friday’s candle was a dent for the NZD bulls touting a move to test the range highs at 0.7435. The bull move stopped at 0.7400.\r\n\r\nI believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7435.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11486\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe Head and Shoulders pattern is in play. The measured move is to 1.2510. It is only invalidated should we see a break back above 1.2930.\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11487\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.\r\n\r\nThere is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850. I am a little reluctant to aggressively trade the CHF given its flight to safety and neutrality attraction.\r\n\r\nWe are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11488\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\nWe are still in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.\r\n\r\nWe have broken above 107.00 and I think a short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.\r\n\r\nI am surprised by recent price action with the USD/JPY given all the geopolitical news hanging over the markets. This in itself makes me more cautious in what trades I am considering. This divergence is quite strange.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-MONTHLY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11489\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-MONTHLY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11471\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"808\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 is roughly as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…\r\n\r\nGo to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">TRADER EDUCATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMost weeks, I will add an article in this section based on an area of importance in trading that I feel should be documented. It may not resonate with all traders but for some I hope they find it useful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE 5 MOST COMMON MISTAKES </strong><strong>NEWBIE TRADERS MAKE</strong></span></p>\r\nIt isn’t always easy being a newbie. Whether it’s in taking on a new job, starting your own business, or trying out a different sport, the degree of uncertainty in a new and unfamiliar undertaking can sometimes be overwhelming and push you to make mistakes. Trading is no different. Here are five of the most common mistakes that newbie traders can make:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> TRADING WITHOUT A PLAN OR JOURNAL:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nEven newbies fresh out of school and in their first week of trading know that the market is as unpredictable as the next “American Idol” or “The Voice” sensation. More often than not, in the attempt to make the most out of the opportunities the market presents, you get so lost in the emotions that you forget what you are supposed to do.\r\n\r\nWith your own money on the line, planning and researching trades and not being impulsive are they key goals. To help you achieve this key goal, which is to become a consistently profitable trader, you need a TRADING PLAN and maybe a TRADING JOURNAL.\r\n\r\nIt can be a simple outline of your entry and exit conditions and your RISK MANAGEMENT rules, and it needs to be written down so that you can refer to it, record and review your progress. I use my TRADING PLAN all the time to refer to my entry and exit strategies. Your TRADING PLAN helps to keep you focused.\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> NOT SETTING A STOP LOSS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nTrading without a STOP LOSS is like trying to train a Labrador puppy to walk beside you nicely without a lead (unless you are Caesar Milan). It is impossible and crazy.\r\n\r\nStop Losses are there to protect. They are not 100% guaranteed as the SNB day (when the EUR/CHF peg was removed) illustrated. They are the best insurance you have however, to stop your account being wiped out. Over the past three to four weeks in particular we have seen very volatile markets and short squeezes that could potentially wipe out accounts. Therefore, setting a STOP LOSS allows you to survive and fight another day even if you have a losing trade.\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> REVENGE TRADING:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nYou would not be a trader if you had not ventured into this area at one time or another. Pure and simple REVENGE TRADING is when you get emotional over a losing trade and then try over aggressively to recuperate the loss. I have revenge traded and like most traders my REVENGE TRADE was twice or three times the position of the original trade.\r\n\r\nIt is difficult, but you just have to try to accept the loss and not let your judgement in the future be clouded by your ego. The text books will tell you that instead of REVENGE TRADING you should focus your efforts and energy on analyzing what went wrong and figuring out what you can do to improve your subsequent trades.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LETTING LOSING TRADES RUN:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis is an interesting subject. The textbooks also say that newbie traders often let their losing trades run all the way to their stops instead of cutting losses early.\r\n\r\nAs a POSITION TRADER I am at odds with some of the textbooks. I fully understand that mentally if the trade is going the wrong way, maybe on the back of a significant news event, it may be the correct action to exit a trade early, I have no problem with this.\r\n\r\nHowever, 90% of the Trade setups that I get involved with are based off Fibonacci levels and I usually allow an excess of 10 or 15 pips either way for stops or limits. It has been proved and well known that currencies will run to specific prices, test these levels and then stop and reverse. Therefore, sometimes if you believe that your stop is at a level where there is a lot of price interest I see absolutely no problem letting the trade run because history has taught me that sometimes taking a loss is wrong if there is a huge amount of interest at your Fibonacci level.\r\n\r\nWhen you enter a trade, you assess risk. This risk is based on possibly several indicators and chart analysis techniques. You have to set realistic stop loss levels and sometimes the best policy is not to exit the trade but to wait and let it reverse. This route preserves capital in your broker account and CAPITAL PRESERVATION is key to Forex success.\r\n\r\nKnowing when to let a losing trade runs comes with experience. If you have entered the trade with a clear objective and assessed the risk, you sometimes need to allow the trade to move around within the parameters you have set. Having said that a geopolitical event or poor headline economic data sometimes means that no matter what you have planned, it needs to be forgotten and the trade exited.\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> HAVING UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nHaving goals in all aspects of life help you stay motivated and disciplined, the same can be said of Forex trading.\r\n\r\nThe goals you set have to be realistic and achievable without adding too much stress.\r\n\r\nHand in Hand with setting your goals whether you prefer, daily, weekly or monthly you also need to have a clear understanding of the steps that you need to take to achieve these goals. This is what your TRADING PLAN is for. You detail objectives and the critical success factors that you need to achieve the goals set.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW I WILL TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. CROSS-RATES &amp; EMERGING MARKETS PAIRS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. CROSS RATES</u>:\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. EMERGING MARKETS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @weeklyfxpremium\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #278 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 14th April 2018\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'a-day-late-and-a-dollar-short', '', '', '2018-04-14 08:52:12', '2018-04-14 13:52:12', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=11502', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(11503, 1, '2018-04-14 08:52:12', '2018-04-14 13:52:12', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>1.1. INTRODUCTION</u><u>:</u><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nThis will sound a little crazy but over the past couple of weeks I have had worries about what to write about. I feel that the FX market is being dominated by TRUMP. Last week I even eluded to my early morning daily routine being altered because like most traders I was waiting on the 7AM EST daily TRUMP tweet to see which way we are heading on the day and would it be RISK ON or a RISK OFF.\r\n\r\nEconomic data seemed to be secondary to the TRUMP media circus that has ring fenced not just equities but also the FX market.\r\n\r\nLet me be straight. It\'s a bloody hard thing trading at the moment. We are range bound, pretty much directionless and sentiment shifts by what seems like the content of the latest tweet.\r\n\r\nI will expand on these thoughts and take matters a couple of stages forward in the “SOAPBOX” section of the blog a little later.\r\n\r\nApart from trading being a pain in the arse, what else is bugging me?\r\n\r\nWell it’s not the snow....\r\n\r\nThe weather has thankfully improved and our new BIG GREEN EGG BBQ is due very soon. This will affect my trading as I will be more outdoors during the day and not tied to my multi screens for hours on end. Better weather = MacBook Air and iPAD Pro days in the near future after the London fix.\r\n\r\nI am maybe a little tired of the current trading ranges. The EUR/USD has been operating inside a range within a larger range for a much longer than expected period of time than I thought, given all the news flows.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11484\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above you can clearly see the two ranges.\r\nLarge range (Maroon Trend lines) 1.2085 to 1.2560\r\nInside range (Black Trend lines) 1.2235 to 1.2475\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhen the EUR/USD is held captive as the most liquid pair in the FX market it adds to my frustration as it limits other moves with other currency pairs and encourages ranges to be developed all over.\r\n\r\nI am NOT saying that there are NOT opportunities to trade, but, it is like walking across a minefield at times. There is always a market within which to trade, however, not every market contains opportunities that fit with your personal style of trading and the temptation to force trades therefore increases each day and if you do not have control of your MINDSET it becomes a challenge.\r\n\r\nI have subscribers to provide for, so the pressure mounts to find opportunities beneath the obvious and that is not always possible. Therefore, they get nothing if I see nothing and we all look at screens....\r\n\r\nThis is what is causing I think my main frustration with the market at the moment. It will change, it always does but looking at the EUR/USD (above) chart once again, it has been inside a 140-pip trading range for just over a month. In a nutshell there is the root cause of my frustration.\r\n\r\nI have often communicated that PATIENCE is vital when trading. Sometimes your best trades are the ones you miss, when price does not align with your TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nMoving on...\r\n\r\nPatience and the ability to adapt to this at times, bizarre marketplace with its corresponding price action, are critical success factors at the moment.\r\n\r\nMy FX PREMIUM subscribers that have been with me for a few years now know that I have embraced change in the way I approach and adapt my trading style to suit the current market. I do NOT have a TRUMP trade in FX and I doubt many traders do. I have read a lot of column inches and I think most of it is tantamount to gambling.\r\n\r\nI have read some frightening stories recently via social media regarding traders failing in this current market through over trading, wrongly sizing trades, starting FX to try and make back cash lost through crypto currency gambling.\r\n\r\nI have said for the past three years and it has been my closing comment on every blog for over a year, that to be successful and to achieve longevity with your trading you need to trade smaller positions with wider stops to basically MANAGE YOUR RISK. This approach keeps you out of the chop fest. This approach works... the FX PREMIUM success proves that point.\r\n\r\nNewbie traders believe probably via Brokers or Social Media that trading FX is straightforward. They jump in with NO idea of leverage and believe that trading with large position sizes generate larger profits. If you are the luckiest bugger alive that approach will work, but in reality, it\'s a sure-fire way to blow up your account and be margin called.\r\n\r\nTrading is lonely. You are on your own. No one is going to cuddle up and say never mind, it’s hard, better luck next time. It is you versus the market. You need real disciplines to achieve trading longevity. It is NOT a get rich quick play. It is hard graft and a particular set of skills are required with the correct MINDSET to be successful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>1.2. THE SOAPBOX:\r\n</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></p>\r\nFOMO has become a very common abbreviation meaning “FEAR OF MISSING OUT”. Right now, I can see this in the stock market and with reading about FX traders blowing up accounts it is obviously apparent in the FX environment as well.\r\n\r\nThe markets are nervous...\r\n\r\nWe have a President in place who judges the economy by how well Wall Street trades.\r\n\r\nI think I am getting punch drunk on the TRUMP approach. It’s predictable, boring, childish, repetitive and frankly if this is what it takes to resonate with his voter base GOD HELP these United States, and NOT GOD BLESS them!\r\n\r\nI want to be balanced in this piece and not just bash TRUMP, however....\r\n\r\nI expected more; he is, despite my increasing lack of tolerance towards the TRUMP style with his awkward stance and approach on the cusp of something big that no other U.S. President could ever have achieved with both a China reciprocal trade deal and North Korean denuclearization. They are not yet signed, sealed or delivered, but my goodness he is closer than anyone from the Oval office has ever been. I think Washington is so fucked up it wouldn’t recognize the enormity of these deals if they were concluded positively. I have said it before and I will say it again, these are HISTORY BOOK ITEMS.\r\n\r\nAll this aside, back in the day, when I managed by sales teams across Europe, I would always consider myself a change manager. Right now, I am not that willing to accept the TRUMP influences and impact as freely as I may have done a few years back.\r\n\r\nThe markets are nervous, they are skittish. They have risen so far so fast on the back of TRUMP, should he for whatever reason lose the Presidency there will be blood on Wall Street.\r\n\r\nThe markets are dealing with: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on SYRIA MISSILE ATTACK</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on TARIFFS</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on CHINA TRADE DEALS</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on RUSSIA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on NORTH KOREA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on TPP</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on NAFTA</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP on THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION</li>\r\n 	<li>I nearly wrote TRUMP on STORMY DANIELS!</li>\r\n 	<li>The USPS (last Friday) stating that TRUMP’S attack on AMAZON was without substance as the USPS makes money out of the AMAZON postal deal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Also last Friday: James Comey, the sacked by TRUMP ex. FBI Director, who is about to have his book “A Higher Loyalty” released soon, likens TRUMP to a Mafia boss, a congenital liar, an unethical leader devoid of human emotion and a person driven by personal ego. The last part seems pretty accurate. In true TRUMP Presidency style Comey was called by the President of the United States a “slime ball”.</li>\r\n 	<li>In addition; we are now entering earnings season once again.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL is on the March higher because of middle east uncertainty over supply. This will have a knock-on effect into production and distribution costs.\r\n\r\nPLUS:</li>\r\n 	<li>The FED are raising interest rates maybe 3 more times in 2018\r\nand\r\nThe Dot Plot from the FED suggests 4 more rate hikes in 2019.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Central Bank divergence talk has gone quiet of late. Let me just say “THIS IS REAL”. Can you imagine USD strength coming back through the markets? Since TRUMP was inaugurated the USD (DXY) has been in a down trend and any bounces so far have been shallow(see DXY chart below).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhat comes first.... USD strength or a “FULL-ON” BEAR MARKET?\r\n\r\nSince the GFC we have until very recently just seen a one-way market. RISK-OFF has NOT been heard much at all until very recently.\r\n\r\nDead right...\r\n\r\nThese markets are nervous. FEAR and GREED are still dominant but who wants to be “A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT?”\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, TRUMP is on a thinner line than ever at the moment between glory and utter failure.\r\n\r\nThe graphic below shows in RED those senior in his administration who are no longer in his team...the sacked list! I’d say if you are on this page listed in BLACK your days could be numbered!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TRUMP-TOP-WHIITE-HOUSE-AIDES.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11474\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TRUMP-TOP-WHIITE-HOUSE-AIDES.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1013\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe markets have an awful lot to consider. I would say that prayers are held most days before trading and that contingency plans are in place for the inevitable.\r\n\r\nThe existing formula cannot possibly have longevity for the U.S. Something has got to give.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11483\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom an FX viewpoint using the DXY chart above, with regards to USD strength it could be a really sharp RIP higher. The TRUMP inauguration trend line resistance comes in around 91.75 (RED LINE) in the DXY\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is above the trend line at 92.54 (GREEN LINE). This could be a trend line break target. At this level it becomes my line in the sand play. 95.19 (SKY BLUE LINE) is a point of interest on any move higher in the next few months.\r\n\r\nFor now, however price action is contained by the 38% Fibonacci retracement.\r\n\r\nIf you DO NOT have this chart on your radar for your decision making at the moment you will do moving forward.\r\n\r\nI do not want to sound alarmist but so much is bubbling under, in my opinion, it’s now becoming just a matter of when NOT if.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> THIS WEEKS IMPORTANT TRADE INFORMATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1. ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>\r\n</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11490\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"952\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.2. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-EVENTS-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11491\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEO-EVENTS-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"958\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>2.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11481\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/T-CHART-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"727\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.4. USD OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing much has changed from last week. We remain in the TRUMP downtrend and remain range bound as seen on the attached chart.\r\n\r\nLonger timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP inauguration trend line resistance comes in around 91.75 (RED LINE) in the DXY\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is above the trend line at 92.54 (GREEN LINE). This could be a trend line break target. At this level it becomes my line in the sand play. 95.19 (SKY BLUE LINE) is a point of interest on any move higher in the next few months.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11483\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1822\" height=\"877\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.5. USD TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week...\r\n\r\nThe Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.\r\n\r\nWe have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2240 to 1.2480.  The latter range has been tested twice, but we are just range bound.\r\n\r\nThis pair is waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to move it one way or the other.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11484\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis pair tested 1.4300, more than likely on the EUR/GBP breakdown with lots of selling coming through the markets rather than a flurry of GBP buyers entering the market. We end the week with a nasty looking “shooting star” candle having formed.\r\n\r\nLooks to me that the GBP could be moving lower in the early sessions this week. This would be consistent with the USD Strength that we saw into the latter trading sessions last week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11485\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis pair had strengthened last week off the 0.7650 level, which now looks like quite a formidable level for bulls to start building stops.\r\n\r\nOn Friday last week however, we posted quite a nasty looking “shooting star” candle which I have highlighted on the chart below.\r\n\r\nThe range to play now is 0.7650 to 0.7820.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11482\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nA lot of NZD strength last week. This currency pair was very resilient to geopolitical news over the past two or three weeks which, has continued to surprise me. However, last Friday’s candle was a dent for the NZD bulls touting a move to test the range highs at 0.7435. The bull move stopped at 0.7400.\r\n\r\nI believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7435.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11486\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe Head and Shoulders pattern is in play. The measured move is to 1.2510. It is only invalidated should we see a break back above 1.2930.\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11487\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.\r\n\r\nThere is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850. I am a little reluctant to aggressively trade the CHF given its flight to safety and neutrality attraction.\r\n\r\nWe are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11488\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\nWe are still in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.\r\n\r\nWe have broken above 107.00 and I think a short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.\r\n\r\nI am surprised by recent price action with the USD/JPY given all the geopolitical news hanging over the markets. This in itself makes me more cautious in what trades I am considering. This divergence is quite strange.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-MONTHLY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11489\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-MONTHLY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-14042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11471\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-14042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"808\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 is roughly as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…\r\n\r\nGo to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">TRADER EDUCATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMost weeks, I will add an article in this section based on an area of importance in trading that I feel should be documented. It may not resonate with all traders but for some I hope they find it useful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE 5 MOST COMMON MISTAKES </strong><strong>NEWBIE TRADERS MAKE</strong></span></p>\r\nIt isn’t always easy being a newbie. Whether it’s in taking on a new job, starting your own business, or trying out a different sport, the degree of uncertainty in a new and unfamiliar undertaking can sometimes be overwhelming and push you to make mistakes. Trading is no different. Here are five of the most common mistakes that newbie traders can make:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> TRADING WITHOUT A PLAN OR JOURNAL:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nEven newbies fresh out of school and in their first week of trading know that the market is as unpredictable as the next “American Idol” or “The Voice” sensation. More often than not, in the attempt to make the most out of the opportunities the market presents, you get so lost in the emotions that you forget what you are supposed to do.\r\n\r\nWith your own money on the line, planning and researching trades and not being impulsive are they key goals. To help you achieve this key goal, which is to become a consistently profitable trader, you need a TRADING PLAN and maybe a TRADING JOURNAL.\r\n\r\nIt can be a simple outline of your entry and exit conditions and your RISK MANAGEMENT rules, and it needs to be written down so that you can refer to it, record and review your progress. I use my TRADING PLAN all the time to refer to my entry and exit strategies. Your TRADING PLAN helps to keep you focused.\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> NOT SETTING A STOP LOSS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nTrading without a STOP LOSS is like trying to train a Labrador puppy to walk beside you nicely without a lead (unless you are Caesar Milan). It is impossible and crazy.\r\n\r\nStop Losses are there to protect. They are not 100% guaranteed as the SNB day (when the EUR/CHF peg was removed) illustrated. They are the best insurance you have however, to stop your account being wiped out. Over the past three to four weeks in particular we have seen very volatile markets and short squeezes that could potentially wipe out accounts. Therefore, setting a STOP LOSS allows you to survive and fight another day even if you have a losing trade.\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> REVENGE TRADING:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nYou would not be a trader if you had not ventured into this area at one time or another. Pure and simple REVENGE TRADING is when you get emotional over a losing trade and then try over aggressively to recuperate the loss. I have revenge traded and like most traders my REVENGE TRADE was twice or three times the position of the original trade.\r\n\r\nIt is difficult, but you just have to try to accept the loss and not let your judgement in the future be clouded by your ego. The text books will tell you that instead of REVENGE TRADING you should focus your efforts and energy on analyzing what went wrong and figuring out what you can do to improve your subsequent trades.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LETTING LOSING TRADES RUN:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis is an interesting subject. The textbooks also say that newbie traders often let their losing trades run all the way to their stops instead of cutting losses early.\r\n\r\nAs a POSITION TRADER I am at odds with some of the textbooks. I fully understand that mentally if the trade is going the wrong way, maybe on the back of a significant news event, it may be the correct action to exit a trade early, I have no problem with this.\r\n\r\nHowever, 90% of the Trade setups that I get involved with are based off Fibonacci levels and I usually allow an excess of 10 or 15 pips either way for stops or limits. It has been proved and well known that currencies will run to specific prices, test these levels and then stop and reverse. Therefore, sometimes if you believe that your stop is at a level where there is a lot of price interest I see absolutely no problem letting the trade run because history has taught me that sometimes taking a loss is wrong if there is a huge amount of interest at your Fibonacci level.\r\n\r\nWhen you enter a trade, you assess risk. This risk is based on possibly several indicators and chart analysis techniques. You have to set realistic stop loss levels and sometimes the best policy is not to exit the trade but to wait and let it reverse. This route preserves capital in your broker account and CAPITAL PRESERVATION is key to Forex success.\r\n\r\nKnowing when to let a losing trade runs comes with experience. If you have entered the trade with a clear objective and assessed the risk, you sometimes need to allow the trade to move around within the parameters you have set. Having said that a geopolitical event or poor headline economic data sometimes means that no matter what you have planned, it needs to be forgotten and the trade exited.\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> HAVING UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nHaving goals in all aspects of life help you stay motivated and disciplined, the same can be said of Forex trading.\r\n\r\nThe goals you set have to be realistic and achievable without adding too much stress.\r\n\r\nHand in Hand with setting your goals whether you prefer, daily, weekly or monthly you also need to have a clear understanding of the steps that you need to take to achieve these goals. This is what your TRADING PLAN is for. You detail objectives and the critical success factors that you need to achieve the goals set.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW I WILL TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. CROSS-RATES &amp; EMERGING MARKETS PAIRS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. CROSS RATES</u>:\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. EMERGING MARKETS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @weeklyfxpremium\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #278 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 14th April 2018\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'A DAY LATE and A DOLLAR SHORT', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '11502-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-14 08:52:12', '2018-04-14 13:52:12', '', 11502, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/11502-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(11507, 1, '2018-04-20 14:45:34', '2018-04-20 19:45:34', '', 'PS SUMMARY 20.04.2018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'ps-summary-20-04-2018', '', '', '2018-04-21 09:35:06', '2018-04-21 14:35:06', '', 11533, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-20.04.2018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
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(11517, 1, '2018-04-20 14:46:52', '2018-04-20 19:46:52', '<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11510\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"686\" height=\"1024\" /></a>', 'Live Trades', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9394-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-20 14:46:52', '2018-04-20 19:46:52', '', 9394, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/9394-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(11518, 1, '2018-04-20 14:47:34', '2018-04-20 19:47:34', '<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11509\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"703\" height=\"1024\" /></a>', 'Limit Orders', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9399-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-20 14:47:34', '2018-04-20 19:47:34', '', 9399, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/9399-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(11519, 1, '2018-04-20 14:48:11', '2018-04-20 19:48:11', '<h4>Flash Trades Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FLASH-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11511\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FLASH-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"771\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/FLASH-MARCH-YTD2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11355\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/FLASH-MARCH-YTD2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"980\" height=\"1094\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Previous Years</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FLASH-2017-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-10711 size-full\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FLASH-2017-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"864\" height=\"950\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8809\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FLASH-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"872\" height=\"952\" />\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FLASH-2015-COMP-copy.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10668\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FLASH-2015-COMP-copy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"422\" height=\"447\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLASH-2014-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8859\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLASH-2014-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"744\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n</div>\r\n</section>', 'Flash Trades', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2711-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-20 14:48:11', '2018-04-20 19:48:11', '', 2711, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/2711-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(11520, 1, '2018-04-20 14:48:55', '2018-04-20 19:48:55', '<h4>Radar Trades Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/RADAR-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11512\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/RADAR-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/RADAR-MARCH-YTD-2018-.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11357\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/RADAR-MARCH-YTD-2018-.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"1104\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-COMPLETE-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10712\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-COMPLETE-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"866\" height=\"954\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8807\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/RADAR-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"856\" height=\"938\" />\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-2015-COMP-copy.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10670\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-2015-COMP-copy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"429\" height=\"449\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/radar-trades/radar-2015-comp/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6985\">\r\n</a>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-2014-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-8858\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-2014-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"489\" height=\"487\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>', 'Radar Trades', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2524-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-20 14:48:55', '2018-04-20 19:48:55', '', 2524, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/2524-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(11521, 1, '2018-04-20 14:49:33', '2018-04-20 19:49:33', '<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/MOMENTUM-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11513\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/MOMENTUM-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"808\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/MOMENTUM-MARCH-YTD-2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11359\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/MOMENTUM-MARCH-YTD-2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"986\" height=\"1108\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n</div>', 'Momentum Trades', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10540-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-20 14:49:33', '2018-04-20 19:49:33', '', 10540, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/10540-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(11522, 1, '2018-04-20 14:50:10', '2018-04-20 19:50:10', '<h4>Fundamental Trades Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FUNDAMENTAL-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11514\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FUNDAMENTAL-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"786\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/FUN-MARCH-YTD-2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11362\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/FUN-MARCH-YTD-2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"980\" height=\"1102\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/FUNDAMENTAL-YTD-JULY31.png\">\r\n</a>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUNDAMENTAL-2017-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10713\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUNDAMENTAL-2017-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"866\" height=\"952\" /></a></h2>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8811\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FUN-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"874\" height=\"942\" />\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUN-2015-COMP-copy.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10671\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUN-2015-COMP-copy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"430\" height=\"442\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FUNDAMENTAL-YEAR-TO-DATE-2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8860\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FUNDAMENTAL-YEAR-TO-DATE-2014.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"710\" height=\"754\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>', 'FUNDAMENTAL TRADES', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3106-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-20 14:50:10', '2018-04-20 19:50:10', '', 3106, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/3106-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(11523, 1, '2018-04-20 14:51:05', '2018-04-20 19:51:05', '<h4>POSITION TRADES Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/POSITION-1-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11515\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/POSITION-1-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"810\" height=\"1024\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/POSITION-2-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11516\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/POSITION-2-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"803\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/POS1-19112016.png\">\r\n</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/POS-MARCH-YTD-2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11365\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/POS-MARCH-YTD-2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"978\" height=\"1106\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/POSITION-COMPLETE-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10714\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/POSITION-COMPLETE-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"946\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/POS-2016-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8814\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/POS-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"816\" height=\"946\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>', 'POSITION TRADES', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '6965-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-20 14:51:05', '2018-04-20 19:51:05', '', 6965, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/6965-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(11524, 1, '2018-04-20 15:50:47', '2018-04-20 20:50:47', '', 'TCHART 21042018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'tchart-21042018', '', '', '2018-04-21 09:31:32', '2018-04-21 14:31:32', '', 11533, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TCHART-21042018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(11525, 1, '2018-04-20 15:54:59', '2018-04-20 20:54:59', '', 'AUDUSD D 21042018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'audusd-d-21042018', '', '', '2018-04-21 09:33:09', '2018-04-21 14:33:09', '', 11533, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-21042018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(11526, 1, '2018-04-20 15:55:02', '2018-04-20 20:55:02', '', 'EURUSD D 21042018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'eurusd-d-21042018', '', '', '2018-04-21 09:32:22', '2018-04-21 14:32:22', '', 11533, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-21042018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(11527, 1, '2018-04-20 15:55:04', '2018-04-20 20:55:04', '', 'GBPUSD D 21042018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'gbpusd-d-21042018', '', '', '2018-04-21 09:32:48', '2018-04-21 14:32:48', '', 11533, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-21042018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(11528, 1, '2018-04-20 15:55:06', '2018-04-20 20:55:06', '', 'NZDUSD D 21042018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nzdusd-d-21042018', '', '', '2018-04-21 09:33:31', '2018-04-21 14:33:31', '', 11533, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-21042018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(11529, 1, '2018-04-20 15:55:08', '2018-04-20 20:55:08', '', 'USDCAD D 21042018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdcad-d-21042018', '', '', '2018-04-21 09:33:51', '2018-04-21 14:33:51', '', 11533, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-21042018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(11530, 1, '2018-04-20 15:55:10', '2018-04-20 20:55:10', '', 'USDCHF MONTHLY 21042018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdchf-monthly-21042018', '', '', '2018-04-21 09:34:19', '2018-04-21 14:34:19', '', 11533, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-21042018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(11531, 1, '2018-04-20 15:55:12', '2018-04-20 20:55:12', '', 'USDJPY WEEKLY 21042018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdjpy-weekly-21042018', '', '', '2018-04-21 09:34:43', '2018-04-21 14:34:43', '', 11533, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-21042018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(11532, 1, '2018-04-20 15:57:37', '2018-04-20 20:57:37', '', 'DXY 21042018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'dxy-21042018', '', '', '2018-04-21 09:31:55', '2018-04-21 14:31:55', '', 11533, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-21042018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0);
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(11533, 1, '2018-04-21 09:40:59', '2018-04-21 14:40:59', 'On Thursday morning last week, I started to think about possible topics for this week’s blog. I had written several tweets and made a few statements during SKYPE meetings that FX was getting really boring. The markets were being held captive by the EUR/USD not being able to break free of its range (1.2085 to 1.2560) that has held it captive for about two months.\r\n\r\nI had written to FX PREMIUM subscribers earlier on Thursday that I had isolated three currencies to focus on namely, NZD, CAD and GBP and that I would be looking to add to existing positions whenever possible.\r\n\r\nThen we had Thursday afternoon and Mark Carney being interviewed by the BBC in London. Carney like Yellen, when she was FED chair would always look to avoid action on rate hikes at all costs, she would cite something to delay the inevitable, Carney is just the same.\r\n\r\nThe markets were 81% locked into a rate increase from the BOE in May. Data last week from the UK was poor, many analysts blamed it on the poor weather (a leaf out of the U.S. playbook).\r\n\r\nCarney in his Q &amp; A session did NOT rule out a rate hike, but he cited the recent data had been poor and that there would be rate increases over the coming years. The markets read this as “MAY IS OFF” and cable was crushed. It took its cross rates with it and it happened when the USD was strengthening, it was like a double whammy.\r\n\r\nMake a note of this because I have never written anything like this before.... “Thank you, Mark Carney,” I got my wish from earlier in the day to load up with more live trades and place more tactical limit orders.\r\n\r\nOn Thursday last week, I completed what I wanted to do vis-à-vis GBP trades and set-ups. The CAD is partially completed, there are still a few more holes I need to fill, and the NZD was about 33% there already, just some pullbacks required there, and I will have that one completed as well.\r\n\r\nSo, whilst I still think that the FX market sucks at the moment I was able to use the moment and take advantage of a “BUY THE DIP” strategy to add to my existing positions and build up a CORE once again.\r\n\r\nI am now looking for a couple more opportunities with the CAD and NZD then I am in patience mode.\r\n\r\nAlmost around the same time into the end of the week the USD finally started to come to life once again and flexed its muscles into the close of the week. Having said that we had five strengthening candles last week, but essentially nothing has changed. The DXY is moving basically sideways within a down trend and until we see a break higher above 91.00, I am not getting too excited yet.\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies (AUD &amp; NZD) were trading very heavy into the weeks close but on the basis, they have no weighting in the USD basket of currencies inside the DXY they had no effect, it is the EUR/USD moves that really move the DXY if the truth be told. The EUR/USD is despite a lot of huff ‘n puff is still range bound.\r\n\r\nThe USD index is weighted as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUR 57.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 13.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP 11.9%</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD 9.1%</li>\r\n 	<li>SEK 4.2%</li>\r\n 	<li>CHF 3.6%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have charts for the DXY and EUR/USD later in the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-size: 24pt;\"><strong>FOREX REVIEW:</strong></span></span></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> FX - FORWARDS, BACKWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS:</span>\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>1.1. THIS WEEKS TRADE INFORMATION: ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>\r\n</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11505\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"833\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>1.2. THIS WEEKS TRADE INFORMATION: GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEOPOLITICAL-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11506\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEOPOLITICAL-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"965\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>1.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TCHART-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11524\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TCHART-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"721\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>1.4. USD INDEX (DXY) OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nWe have had 5 x bullish candles last week, but we are still below the 38% Fibonacci level of 90.91. In my opinion, we need to see this level break and also, we need to see a test of the TRUMP TREND LINE which is basically at the 50% Fibonacci level of 91.75 (RED LINE on chart).\r\n\r\nLonger timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11532\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1824\" height=\"868\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>1.5. USD MAJORS - TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nI have read a huge amount of commentary about this pair. For me whilst it has moved lower, it is still inside the trading range within the larger trading range. Not much therefore has changed with my thoughts. We are still waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to get things moving. Perhaps the ECB Press Conference this Thursday will be it?\r\n\r\nThe Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.\r\n\r\nWe have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2220 to 1.2480.  The latter range has been tested twice, but we are just range bound.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11526\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nAs written earlier in this blog, BOE Governor Mark Carney placed a cat amongst the pigeons last week when he cited mixed economic data and the fact that the markets are running away with the idea that interest rates are going to rise as soon as May. He said rates would increase this year if things remained as they are now, but maybe the markets need to think.\r\n\r\nWell that\'s not going to happen!\r\n\r\nThe upshot was that the GBP fell across the board and for me I treated is a buying opportunity.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11527\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nHuge failure at the trend line. A false breakout and a strong reversal can be seen on the chart below. It looks to me like a re-test of 0.7640 support is on the cards.\r\n\r\nAlthough not shown here the weekly candle is BEARISH ENGULFING.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11525\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nI believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7435.\r\n\r\nWe are looking like we are going to test the 0.7176 level. We have had a false breakdown to 0.7150 a couple of weeks ago and the bounce back into the range was strong. Let’s see what happens this time as we approach the support trend line (MAROON).\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the chart below we are in a DOUBLE TOP potential move with the measured target being 0.6910.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the weekly closing candle is BEARISH ENGULFING.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11528\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\nA dovish reaction to the BOC and a miss on inflation data at the end of last week has seen this pair spike higher. We are still in a trading range and the Head and Shoulders pattern is still in play.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11529\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.\r\n\r\nThere is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850.\r\n\r\nWe are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11530\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nThis pair is a little boring at the moment. I think that we are still in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.\r\n\r\nWe have broken above 107.00 and I think a short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.\r\n\r\nI am surprised by recent price action with the USD/JPY given all the geopolitical news hanging over the markets. This in itself makes me more cautious in what trades I am considering. This divergence is quite strange.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11531\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-20.04.2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11507\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-20.04.2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"808\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join my FX PREMIUM subscribers and subscribe to the “10,000 pips a year” group from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 are roughly as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…\r\n\r\nGo to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">TRADER EDUCATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Most weeks, I will add an article in this section based on an area of importance in trading that I feel should be documented. It may not resonate with all traders but for some I hope they find it useful.\r\n<strong> </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\n</strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>TRADING AROUND THE NEWS:</strong></span></p>\r\nI call myself a FUNDAMENTAL trader, but I am also a TECHNICAL trader at the same time, when it comes to timing my entries, therefore I do not very often place trades based on News Announcements, in fact it is a rare event for me that I would do so.\r\n\r\nIn fact, I am reluctant to trade around Non-Farm Payrolls and Central Bank Monetary Policy announcements, especially the FOMC and ECB.\r\n\r\nI have various beliefs that my experiences have taught me regarding these announcements that have generally taught me the same lesson: Stay Away\r\n\r\nI am referring to major news announcements. I don’t really pay attention to the smaller announcements because they usually don’t move the market much. I will go through why I avoid trading during major news events and various strategies for dealing with news announcements.\r\n\r\nFirst off, I believe that news announcements are almost totally unpredictable, I often refer to Non-Farm payrolls as a lottery. As you may know, there is usually a “forecast” and a “previous” number listed before the news announcement is made. The market’s reaction is generally based on whether the actual announcement is higher or lower than the forecast. The problem is that this assumes that most traders react the same way to the relation between the actual number, the forecast and the previous number. Even if we could correctly interpret this information, it is difficult to enter trades during these times because execution suffers within a fast-moving market.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, these releases have very few long-term implications and are unpredictable in the short term. Of course, there are traders that may use these numbers to some degree of success, but I have never seen any strong evidence that you can profit while trading those numbers over the long term. The one constant around major news announcements (such as non-farm payroll) is that there are rapid moves with above average magnitude. These moves can be very erratic. Sometimes the move is in one direction. Sometimes the move looks like it will be in one direction, and then moves back to starting point just as rapidly.\r\n\r\nFurthermore, these moves can be very irrational. Not only do they often ignore the logic of the news announcement itself, but these moves often ignore the logic of any technical analysis. It would be much easier to trade these announcements if traders were rational, but they are not. Therefore, to me the most useful aspect of these major announcements is the time they take place I use the timing of the announcements to avoid placing trades right before them.\r\n\r\nIf a pattern has almost completed, there is no advantage to placing a trade immediately before or after a news announcement. Let’s say that this trade is a long opportunity. Let’s also say that the pair is just above the entry. If this is the case and the news makes the pair shoot up, then we never entered and there would be no trade. If the news makes the pair shoot down then we will likely be stopped out. Therefore, we never would take this trade.\r\n\r\nIf the pattern is farther from completing, we still wait to enter until after the price action due to the news announcement has calmed down. If we already have entered a trade, we may close it before the news announcement comes out. This varies on a ton of different situations, which would be too long to write about here.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nAs mentioned last week, I am moving forward with my longer-term views and have started finally to build my CORE POSITIONS. It is a slow process given the current marketplace, but, the recent dip especially with the GBP has allowed me to BUY THE DIP and “load up” with cable.\r\n\r\nThere will always be the RISK of a 100+ pip drop vis-a-vis BREXIT, but conversely it can move just a fast to the long side on positive news. A BREXIT deal will be done. A deal on the IRISH border will be struck. It is all positioning. The UK economy is NOT as bad as recent mixed data suggests. Whilst Carney may not raise interest rates in May, they will be moving higher sometime in 2018.\r\n\r\nI am building multiple GBP trades, through LIVE trades and LIMIT ORDERS. Most of these trades are 10% position sizes and are either single or 2 x Mini lots in size. Even with FULL Monthly ATR’s in position I am inside my TRADE PLAN parameters for RISK.\r\n\r\nYou guys and gals need to check your RISK TOLERANCES if you are taking ALL the trades I am posting and adjust your POSITION SIZES accordingly.\r\n\r\nGiven the market is STILL very range bound, although we have posted some very strong closing weekly candles, my thought process is still to concentrate on longer-term trades and build my CORE POSITIONS.\r\n\r\nI am going to try to let these positions grow. I have been too reactive this year so far and have been reluctant to let trades move in line with the monthly ATR limits and where required use HEDGES.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW WILL I TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week: 14 x live trades &amp; 5 x limit orders.\r\nThis week: 20 x live trades &amp; 11 x limit orders.\r\n\r\nI am building my CORE POSITIONS with the GBP, NZD and CAD currencies, and, this is my key goal this week to have most of my LIMIT ORDERS in place.\r\n\r\nAll eyes will be on the ECB this week, with Mario Draghi going under the spotlight once again. I have read a few articles last week about the ECB not having discussed their interest rate path / policy after QE completes. To be honest... pull the other one.\r\n\r\nI still have my EUR/USD (POS752) from 1.2152 in position. It all depends what Draghi turns with up next Thursday to see if this trade triggers.\r\n\r\nI have placed the JPY on the back burner at the moment, I am waiting for the USD/JPY to hit 108.00 first (FUN900), or at least give some solid clues before deciding to enter JPY cross rate pairs.\r\n\r\nI added late on Friday afternoon, AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD trades and early this week, I will be looking add more.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.3. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>\r\n\r\nWe are range bound. We must remember that despite the strong USD performance into the close of last week, the DXY is still below a 38% Fibonacci retracement. Therefore, to coin a phrase of mine, lots of flashing lights but not too much going on.\r\n\r\nI mentioned last week that I would probably hold back on GBP/USD trades, but I saw the buying opportunity after Carney’s words last Thursday and I decided to take the plunge. I am at my limit that I want to have exposed at this stage with regards to GBP/USD and EUR/GBP trades.\r\n\r\nI will be adding NZD and CAD trades this week in line with my macro plan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is now a much greater alignment with the USD majors.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SENTIMENT-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11508\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SENTIMENT-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"859\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11510\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"686\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11509\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"703\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing to add this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @weeklyfxpremium\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #175 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM\r\nDATE: 21st April 2018', 'CARNEY CRUSHES THE CABLE and USD SPRINGS BACK TO LIFE', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'carney-crushes-the-cable-and-usd-springs-back-to-life', '', '', '2018-04-21 09:40:59', '2018-04-21 14:40:59', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=11533', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0),
(11534, 1, '2018-04-21 09:40:59', '2018-04-21 14:40:59', 'On Thursday morning last week, I started to think about possible topics for this week’s blog. I had written several tweets and made a few statements during SKYPE meetings that FX was getting really boring. The markets were being held captive by the EUR/USD not being able to break free of its range (1.2085 to 1.2560) that has held it captive for about two months.\r\n\r\nI had written to FX PREMIUM subscribers earlier on Thursday that I had isolated three currencies to focus on namely, NZD, CAD and GBP and that I would be looking to add to existing positions whenever possible.\r\n\r\nThen we had Thursday afternoon and Mark Carney being interviewed by the BBC in London. Carney like Yellen, when she was FED chair would always look to avoid action on rate hikes at all costs, she would cite something to delay the inevitable, Carney is just the same.\r\n\r\nThe markets were 81% locked into a rate increase from the BOE in May. Data last week from the UK was poor, many analysts blamed it on the poor weather (a leaf out of the U.S. playbook).\r\n\r\nCarney in his Q &amp; A session did NOT rule out a rate hike, but he cited the recent data had been poor and that there would be rate increases over the coming years. The markets read this as “MAY IS OFF” and cable was crushed. It took its cross rates with it and it happened when the USD was strengthening, it was like a double whammy.\r\n\r\nMake a note of this because I have never written anything like this before.... “Thank you, Mark Carney,” I got my wish from earlier in the day to load up with more live trades and place more tactical limit orders.\r\n\r\nOn Thursday last week, I completed what I wanted to do vis-à-vis GBP trades and set-ups. The CAD is partially completed, there are still a few more holes I need to fill, and the NZD was about 33% there already, just some pullbacks required there, and I will have that one completed as well.\r\n\r\nSo, whilst I still think that the FX market sucks at the moment I was able to use the moment and take advantage of a “BUY THE DIP” strategy to add to my existing positions and build up a CORE once again.\r\n\r\nI am now looking for a couple more opportunities with the CAD and NZD then I am in patience mode.\r\n\r\nAlmost around the same time into the end of the week the USD finally started to come to life once again and flexed its muscles into the close of the week. Having said that we had five strengthening candles last week, but essentially nothing has changed. The DXY is moving basically sideways within a down trend and until we see a break higher above 91.00, I am not getting too excited yet.\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies (AUD &amp; NZD) were trading very heavy into the weeks close but on the basis, they have no weighting in the USD basket of currencies inside the DXY they had no effect, it is the EUR/USD moves that really move the DXY if the truth be told. The EUR/USD is despite a lot of huff ‘n puff is still range bound.\r\n\r\nThe USD index is weighted as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUR 57.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 13.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP 11.9%</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD 9.1%</li>\r\n 	<li>SEK 4.2%</li>\r\n 	<li>CHF 3.6%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have charts for the DXY and EUR/USD later in the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-size: 24pt;\"><strong>FOREX REVIEW:</strong></span></span></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> FX - FORWARDS, BACKWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS:</span>\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>1.1. THIS WEEKS TRADE INFORMATION: ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>\r\n</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11505\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"833\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>1.2. THIS WEEKS TRADE INFORMATION: GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEOPOLITICAL-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11506\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEOPOLITICAL-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"965\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>1.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TCHART-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11524\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TCHART-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"721\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>1.4. USD INDEX (DXY) OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nWe have had 5 x bullish candles last week, but we are still below the 38% Fibonacci level of 90.91. In my opinion, we need to see this level break and also, we need to see a test of the TRUMP TREND LINE which is basically at the 50% Fibonacci level of 91.75 (RED LINE on chart).\r\n\r\nLonger timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11532\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1824\" height=\"868\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>1.5. USD MAJORS - TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nI have read a huge amount of commentary about this pair. For me whilst it has moved lower, it is still inside the trading range within the larger trading range. Not much therefore has changed with my thoughts. We are still waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to get things moving. Perhaps the ECB Press Conference this Thursday will be it?\r\n\r\nThe Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.\r\n\r\nWe have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2220 to 1.2480.  The latter range has been tested twice, but we are just range bound.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11526\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nAs written earlier in this blog, BOE Governor Mark Carney placed a cat amongst the pigeons last week when he cited mixed economic data and the fact that the markets are running away with the idea that interest rates are going to rise as soon as May. He said rates would increase this year if things remained as they are now, but maybe the markets need to think.\r\n\r\nWell that\'s not going to happen!\r\n\r\nThe upshot was that the GBP fell across the board and for me I treated is a buying opportunity.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11527\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nHuge failure at the trend line. A false breakout and a strong reversal can be seen on the chart below. It looks to me like a re-test of 0.7640 support is on the cards.\r\n\r\nAlthough not shown here the weekly candle is BEARISH ENGULFING.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11525\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nI believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7435.\r\n\r\nWe are looking like we are going to test the 0.7176 level. We have had a false breakdown to 0.7150 a couple of weeks ago and the bounce back into the range was strong. Let’s see what happens this time as we approach the support trend line (MAROON).\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the chart below we are in a DOUBLE TOP potential move with the measured target being 0.6910.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the weekly closing candle is BEARISH ENGULFING.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11528\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\nA dovish reaction to the BOC and a miss on inflation data at the end of last week has seen this pair spike higher. We are still in a trading range and the Head and Shoulders pattern is still in play.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11529\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.\r\n\r\nThere is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850.\r\n\r\nWe are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11530\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nThis pair is a little boring at the moment. I think that we are still in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.\r\n\r\nWe have broken above 107.00 and I think a short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.\r\n\r\nI am surprised by recent price action with the USD/JPY given all the geopolitical news hanging over the markets. This in itself makes me more cautious in what trades I am considering. This divergence is quite strange.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11531\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-20.04.2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11507\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-20.04.2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"808\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join my FX PREMIUM subscribers and subscribe to the “10,000 pips a year” group from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 are roughly as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…\r\n\r\nGo to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">TRADER EDUCATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Most weeks, I will add an article in this section based on an area of importance in trading that I feel should be documented. It may not resonate with all traders but for some I hope they find it useful.\r\n<strong> </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\n</strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>TRADING AROUND THE NEWS:</strong></span></p>\r\nI call myself a FUNDAMENTAL trader, but I am also a TECHNICAL trader at the same time, when it comes to timing my entries, therefore I do not very often place trades based on News Announcements, in fact it is a rare event for me that I would do so.\r\n\r\nIn fact, I am reluctant to trade around Non-Farm Payrolls and Central Bank Monetary Policy announcements, especially the FOMC and ECB.\r\n\r\nI have various beliefs that my experiences have taught me regarding these announcements that have generally taught me the same lesson: Stay Away\r\n\r\nI am referring to major news announcements. I don’t really pay attention to the smaller announcements because they usually don’t move the market much. I will go through why I avoid trading during major news events and various strategies for dealing with news announcements.\r\n\r\nFirst off, I believe that news announcements are almost totally unpredictable, I often refer to Non-Farm payrolls as a lottery. As you may know, there is usually a “forecast” and a “previous” number listed before the news announcement is made. The market’s reaction is generally based on whether the actual announcement is higher or lower than the forecast. The problem is that this assumes that most traders react the same way to the relation between the actual number, the forecast and the previous number. Even if we could correctly interpret this information, it is difficult to enter trades during these times because execution suffers within a fast-moving market.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, these releases have very few long-term implications and are unpredictable in the short term. Of course, there are traders that may use these numbers to some degree of success, but I have never seen any strong evidence that you can profit while trading those numbers over the long term. The one constant around major news announcements (such as non-farm payroll) is that there are rapid moves with above average magnitude. These moves can be very erratic. Sometimes the move is in one direction. Sometimes the move looks like it will be in one direction, and then moves back to starting point just as rapidly.\r\n\r\nFurthermore, these moves can be very irrational. Not only do they often ignore the logic of the news announcement itself, but these moves often ignore the logic of any technical analysis. It would be much easier to trade these announcements if traders were rational, but they are not. Therefore, to me the most useful aspect of these major announcements is the time they take place I use the timing of the announcements to avoid placing trades right before them.\r\n\r\nIf a pattern has almost completed, there is no advantage to placing a trade immediately before or after a news announcement. Let’s say that this trade is a long opportunity. Let’s also say that the pair is just above the entry. If this is the case and the news makes the pair shoot up, then we never entered and there would be no trade. If the news makes the pair shoot down then we will likely be stopped out. Therefore, we never would take this trade.\r\n\r\nIf the pattern is farther from completing, we still wait to enter until after the price action due to the news announcement has calmed down. If we already have entered a trade, we may close it before the news announcement comes out. This varies on a ton of different situations, which would be too long to write about here.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nAs mentioned last week, I am moving forward with my longer-term views and have started finally to build my CORE POSITIONS. It is a slow process given the current marketplace, but, the recent dip especially with the GBP has allowed me to BUY THE DIP and “load up” with cable.\r\n\r\nThere will always be the RISK of a 100+ pip drop vis-a-vis BREXIT, but conversely it can move just a fast to the long side on positive news. A BREXIT deal will be done. A deal on the IRISH border will be struck. It is all positioning. The UK economy is NOT as bad as recent mixed data suggests. Whilst Carney may not raise interest rates in May, they will be moving higher sometime in 2018.\r\n\r\nI am building multiple GBP trades, through LIVE trades and LIMIT ORDERS. Most of these trades are 10% position sizes and are either single or 2 x Mini lots in size. Even with FULL Monthly ATR’s in position I am inside my TRADE PLAN parameters for RISK.\r\n\r\nYou guys and gals need to check your RISK TOLERANCES if you are taking ALL the trades I am posting and adjust your POSITION SIZES accordingly.\r\n\r\nGiven the market is STILL very range bound, although we have posted some very strong closing weekly candles, my thought process is still to concentrate on longer-term trades and build my CORE POSITIONS.\r\n\r\nI am going to try to let these positions grow. I have been too reactive this year so far and have been reluctant to let trades move in line with the monthly ATR limits and where required use HEDGES.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW WILL I TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week: 14 x live trades &amp; 5 x limit orders.\r\nThis week: 20 x live trades &amp; 11 x limit orders.\r\n\r\nI am building my CORE POSITIONS with the GBP, NZD and CAD currencies, and, this is my key goal this week to have most of my LIMIT ORDERS in place.\r\n\r\nAll eyes will be on the ECB this week, with Mario Draghi going under the spotlight once again. I have read a few articles last week about the ECB not having discussed their interest rate path / policy after QE completes. To be honest... pull the other one.\r\n\r\nI still have my EUR/USD (POS752) from 1.2152 in position. It all depends what Draghi turns with up next Thursday to see if this trade triggers.\r\n\r\nI have placed the JPY on the back burner at the moment, I am waiting for the USD/JPY to hit 108.00 first (FUN900), or at least give some solid clues before deciding to enter JPY cross rate pairs.\r\n\r\nI added late on Friday afternoon, AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD trades and early this week, I will be looking add more.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.3. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>\r\n\r\nWe are range bound. We must remember that despite the strong USD performance into the close of last week, the DXY is still below a 38% Fibonacci retracement. Therefore, to coin a phrase of mine, lots of flashing lights but not too much going on.\r\n\r\nI mentioned last week that I would probably hold back on GBP/USD trades, but I saw the buying opportunity after Carney’s words last Thursday and I decided to take the plunge. I am at my limit that I want to have exposed at this stage with regards to GBP/USD and EUR/GBP trades.\r\n\r\nI will be adding NZD and CAD trades this week in line with my macro plan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is now a much greater alignment with the USD majors.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SENTIMENT-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11508\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SENTIMENT-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"859\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11510\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIVE-TRADES-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"686\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11509\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"703\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing to add this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @weeklyfxpremium\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #175 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM\r\nDATE: 21st April 2018', 'CARNEY CRUSHES THE CABLE and USD SPRINGS BACK TO LIFE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '11533-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-21 09:40:59', '2018-04-21 14:40:59', '', 11533, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/11533-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(11535, 1, '2018-04-21 10:02:15', '2018-04-21 15:02:15', 'On Thursday morning last week, I started to think about possible topics for this week’s blog. I had written several tweets and made a few statements during SKYPE meetings that FX was getting really boring. The markets were being held captive by the EUR/USD not being able to break free of its range (1.2085 to 1.2560) that has held it captive for about two months.\r\n\r\nI had written to FX PREMIUM subscribers earlier on Thursday that I had isolated three currencies to focus on namely, NZD, CAD and GBP and that I would be looking to add to existing positions whenever possible.\r\n\r\nThen we had Thursday afternoon and Mark Carney being interviewed by the BBC in London. Carney like Yellen, when she was FED chair would always look to avoid action on rate hikes at all costs, she would cite something to delay the inevitable, Carney is just the same.\r\n\r\nThe markets were 81% locked into a rate increase from the BOE in May. Data last week from the UK was poor, many analysts blamed it on the poor weather (a leaf out of the U.S. playbook).\r\n\r\nCarney in his Q &amp; A session did NOT rule out a rate hike, but he cited the recent data had been poor and that there would be rate increases over the coming years. The markets read this as “MAY IS OFF” and cable was crushed. It took its cross rates with it and it happened when the USD was strengthening, it was like a double whammy.\r\n\r\nMake a note of this because I have never written anything like this before.... “Thank you, Mark Carney,” I got my wish from earlier in the day to load up with more live trades and place more tactical limit orders.\r\n\r\nOn Thursday last week, I completed what I wanted to do vis-à-vis GBP trades and set-ups. The CAD is partially completed, there are still a few more holes I need to fill, and the NZD was about 33% there already, just some pullbacks required there, and I will have that one completed as well.\r\n\r\nSo, whilst I still think that the FX market sucks at the moment I was able to use the moment and take advantage of a “BUY THE DIP” strategy to add to my existing positions and build up a CORE once again.\r\n\r\nI am now looking for a couple more opportunities with the CAD and NZD then I am in patience mode.\r\n\r\nAlmost around the same time into the end of the week the USD finally started to come to life once again and flexed its muscles into the close of the week. Having said that we had five strengthening candles last week, but essentially nothing has changed. The DXY is moving basically sideways within a down trend and until we see a break higher above 91.00, I am not getting too excited yet.\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies (AUD &amp; NZD) were trading very heavy into the weeks close but on the basis, they have no weighting in the USD basket of currencies inside the DXY they had no effect, it is the EUR/USD moves that really move the DXY if the truth be told. The EUR/USD is despite a lot of huff ‘n puff is still range bound.\r\n\r\nThe USD index is weighted as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUR 57.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 13.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP 11.9%</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD 9.1%</li>\r\n 	<li>SEK 4.2%</li>\r\n 	<li>CHF 3.6%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have charts for the DXY and EUR/USD later in the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-size: 24pt;\"><strong>FOREX REVIEW:</strong></span></span></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> FX - FORWARDS, BACKWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS:</span>\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>1.1. THIS WEEKS TRADE INFORMATION: ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>\r\n</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11505\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"833\" /></a></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>1.2. THIS WEEKS TRADE INFORMATION: GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEOPOLITICAL-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11506\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEOPOLITICAL-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"965\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>1.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TCHART-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11524\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TCHART-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"721\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>1.4. USD INDEX (DXY) OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nWe have had 5 x bullish candles last week, but we are still below the 38% Fibonacci level of 90.91. In my opinion, we need to see this level break and also, we need to see a test of the TRUMP TREND LINE which is basically at the 50% Fibonacci level of 91.75 (RED LINE on chart).\r\n\r\nLonger timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11532\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1824\" height=\"868\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>1.5. USD MAJORS - TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nI have read a huge amount of commentary about this pair. For me whilst it has moved lower, it is still inside the trading range within the larger trading range. Not much therefore has changed with my thoughts. We are still waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to get things moving. Perhaps the ECB Press Conference this Thursday will be it?\r\n\r\nThe Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.\r\n\r\nWe have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2220 to 1.2480.  The latter range has been tested twice, but we are just range bound.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11526\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs written earlier in this blog, BOE Governor Mark Carney placed a cat amongst the pigeons last week when he cited mixed economic data and the fact that the markets are running away with the idea that interest rates are going to rise as soon as May. He said rates would increase this year if things remained as they are now, but maybe the markets need to think.\r\n\r\nWell that\'s not going to happen!\r\n\r\nThe upshot was that the GBP fell across the board and for me I treated is a buying opportunity.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11527\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nHuge failure at the trend line. A false breakout and a strong reversal can be seen on the chart below. It looks to me like a re-test of 0.7640 support is on the cards.\r\n\r\nAlthough not shown here the weekly candle is BEARISH ENGULFING.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11525\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nI believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7435.\r\n\r\nWe are looking like we are going to test the 0.7176 level. We have had a false breakdown to 0.7150 a couple of weeks ago and the bounce back into the range was strong. Let’s see what happens this time as we approach the support trend line (MAROON).\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the chart below we are in a DOUBLE TOP potential move with the measured target being 0.6910.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the weekly closing candle is BEARISH ENGULFING.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11528\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\nA dovish reaction to the BOC and a miss on inflation data at the end of last week has seen this pair spike higher. We are still in a trading range and the Head and Shoulders pattern is still in play.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11529\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.\r\n\r\nThere is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850.\r\n\r\nWe are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11530\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nThis pair is a little boring at the moment. I think that we are still in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.\r\n\r\nWe have broken above 107.00 and I think a short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.\r\n\r\nI am surprised by recent price action with the USD/JPY given all the geopolitical news hanging over the markets. This in itself makes me more cautious in what trades I am considering. This divergence is quite strange.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11531\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-20.04.2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11507\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-20.04.2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"808\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join my FX PREMIUM subscribers and subscribe to the “10,000 pips a year” group from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 are roughly as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…\r\n\r\nGo to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com  </a>  for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">TRADER EDUCATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMost weeks, I will add an article in this section based on an area of importance in trading that I feel should be documented. It may not resonate with all traders but for some I hope they find it useful.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\n</strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>TRADING AROUND THE NEWS:</strong></span></p>\r\nI call myself a FUNDAMENTAL trader, but I am also a TECHNICAL trader at the same time, when it comes to timing my entries, therefore I do not very often place trades based on News Announcements, in fact it is a rare event for me that I would do so.\r\n\r\nIn fact, I am reluctant to trade around Non-Farm Payrolls and Central Bank Monetary Policy announcements, especially the FOMC and ECB.\r\n\r\nI have various beliefs that my experiences have taught me regarding these announcements that have generally taught me the same lesson: Stay Away\r\n\r\nI am referring to major news announcements. I don’t really pay attention to the smaller announcements because they usually don’t move the market much. I will go through why I avoid trading during major news events and various strategies for dealing with news announcements.\r\n\r\nFirst off, I believe that news announcements are almost totally unpredictable, I often refer to Non-Farm payrolls as a lottery. As you may know, there is usually a “forecast” and a “previous” number listed before the news announcement is made. The market’s reaction is generally based on whether the actual announcement is higher or lower than the forecast. The problem is that this assumes that most traders react the same way to the relation between the actual number, the forecast and the previous number. Even if we could correctly interpret this information, it is difficult to enter trades during these times because execution suffers within a fast-moving market.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, these releases have very few long-term implications and are unpredictable in the short term. Of course, there are traders that may use these numbers to some degree of success, but I have never seen any strong evidence that you can profit while trading those numbers over the long term. The one constant around major news announcements (such as non-farm payroll) is that there are rapid moves with above average magnitude. These moves can be very erratic. Sometimes the move is in one direction. Sometimes the move looks like it will be in one direction, and then moves back to starting point just as rapidly.\r\n\r\nFurthermore, these moves can be very irrational. Not only do they often ignore the logic of the news announcement itself, but these moves often ignore the logic of any technical analysis. It would be much easier to trade these announcements if traders were rational, but they are not. Therefore, to me the most useful aspect of these major announcements is the time they take place I use the timing of the announcements to avoid placing trades right before them.\r\n\r\nIf a pattern has almost completed, there is no advantage to placing a trade immediately before or after a news announcement. Let’s say that this trade is a long opportunity. Let’s also say that the pair is just above the entry. If this is the case and the news makes the pair shoot up, then we never entered and there would be no trade. If the news makes the pair shoot down then we will likely be stopped out. Therefore, we never would take this trade.\r\n\r\nIf the pattern is farther from completing, we still wait to enter until after the price action due to the news announcement has calmed down. If we already have entered a trade, we may close it before the news announcement comes out. This varies on a ton of different situations, which would be too long to write about here.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW WILL I TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.3.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n<u>4.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #279 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 21st April 2018', 'CARNEY CRUSHES THE CABLE and USD SPRINGS BACK TO LIFE', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'carney-crushes-the-cable-and-usd-springs-back-to-life', '', '', '2018-04-21 10:02:15', '2018-04-21 15:02:15', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=11535', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(11536, 1, '2018-04-21 10:02:15', '2018-04-21 15:02:15', 'On Thursday morning last week, I started to think about possible topics for this week’s blog. I had written several tweets and made a few statements during SKYPE meetings that FX was getting really boring. The markets were being held captive by the EUR/USD not being able to break free of its range (1.2085 to 1.2560) that has held it captive for about two months.\r\n\r\nI had written to FX PREMIUM subscribers earlier on Thursday that I had isolated three currencies to focus on namely, NZD, CAD and GBP and that I would be looking to add to existing positions whenever possible.\r\n\r\nThen we had Thursday afternoon and Mark Carney being interviewed by the BBC in London. Carney like Yellen, when she was FED chair would always look to avoid action on rate hikes at all costs, she would cite something to delay the inevitable, Carney is just the same.\r\n\r\nThe markets were 81% locked into a rate increase from the BOE in May. Data last week from the UK was poor, many analysts blamed it on the poor weather (a leaf out of the U.S. playbook).\r\n\r\nCarney in his Q &amp; A session did NOT rule out a rate hike, but he cited the recent data had been poor and that there would be rate increases over the coming years. The markets read this as “MAY IS OFF” and cable was crushed. It took its cross rates with it and it happened when the USD was strengthening, it was like a double whammy.\r\n\r\nMake a note of this because I have never written anything like this before.... “Thank you, Mark Carney,” I got my wish from earlier in the day to load up with more live trades and place more tactical limit orders.\r\n\r\nOn Thursday last week, I completed what I wanted to do vis-à-vis GBP trades and set-ups. The CAD is partially completed, there are still a few more holes I need to fill, and the NZD was about 33% there already, just some pullbacks required there, and I will have that one completed as well.\r\n\r\nSo, whilst I still think that the FX market sucks at the moment I was able to use the moment and take advantage of a “BUY THE DIP” strategy to add to my existing positions and build up a CORE once again.\r\n\r\nI am now looking for a couple more opportunities with the CAD and NZD then I am in patience mode.\r\n\r\nAlmost around the same time into the end of the week the USD finally started to come to life once again and flexed its muscles into the close of the week. Having said that we had five strengthening candles last week, but essentially nothing has changed. The DXY is moving basically sideways within a down trend and until we see a break higher above 91.00, I am not getting too excited yet.\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies (AUD &amp; NZD) were trading very heavy into the weeks close but on the basis, they have no weighting in the USD basket of currencies inside the DXY they had no effect, it is the EUR/USD moves that really move the DXY if the truth be told. The EUR/USD is despite a lot of huff ‘n puff is still range bound.\r\n\r\nThe USD index is weighted as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUR 57.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 13.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP 11.9%</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD 9.1%</li>\r\n 	<li>SEK 4.2%</li>\r\n 	<li>CHF 3.6%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have charts for the DXY and EUR/USD later in the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-size: 24pt;\"><strong>FOREX REVIEW:</strong></span></span></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> FX - FORWARDS, BACKWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS:</span>\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>1.1. THIS WEEKS TRADE INFORMATION: ECONOMIC DATA:</u><u>\r\n</u>NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11505\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ECON-DATA-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"833\" /></a></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>1.2. THIS WEEKS TRADE INFORMATION: GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEOPOLITICAL-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11506\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GEOPOLITICAL-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"965\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong><u>1.3. BIAS CHART - </u><u>USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TCHART-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11524\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TCHART-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"721\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>1.4. USD INDEX (DXY) OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nWe have had 5 x bullish candles last week, but we are still below the 38% Fibonacci level of 90.91. In my opinion, we need to see this level break and also, we need to see a test of the TRUMP TREND LINE which is basically at the 50% Fibonacci level of 91.75 (RED LINE on chart).\r\n\r\nLonger timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11532\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/DXY-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1824\" height=\"868\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>1.5. USD MAJORS - TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nI have read a huge amount of commentary about this pair. For me whilst it has moved lower, it is still inside the trading range within the larger trading range. Not much therefore has changed with my thoughts. We are still waiting for a bolt, a catalyst to get things moving. Perhaps the ECB Press Conference this Thursday will be it?\r\n\r\nThe Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.\r\n\r\nWe have two ranges: MAROON Lines 1.2090 to 1.2550 and the BLACK Lines signify a range within a range at 1.2220 to 1.2480.  The latter range has been tested twice, but we are just range bound.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11526\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs written earlier in this blog, BOE Governor Mark Carney placed a cat amongst the pigeons last week when he cited mixed economic data and the fact that the markets are running away with the idea that interest rates are going to rise as soon as May. He said rates would increase this year if things remained as they are now, but maybe the markets need to think.\r\n\r\nWell that\'s not going to happen!\r\n\r\nThe upshot was that the GBP fell across the board and for me I treated is a buying opportunity.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11527\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GBPUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nHuge failure at the trend line. A false breakout and a strong reversal can be seen on the chart below. It looks to me like a re-test of 0.7640 support is on the cards.\r\n\r\nAlthough not shown here the weekly candle is BEARISH ENGULFING.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11525\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AUDUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\nI believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7435.\r\n\r\nWe are looking like we are going to test the 0.7176 level. We have had a false breakdown to 0.7150 a couple of weeks ago and the bounce back into the range was strong. Let’s see what happens this time as we approach the support trend line (MAROON).\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the chart below we are in a DOUBLE TOP potential move with the measured target being 0.6910.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the weekly closing candle is BEARISH ENGULFING.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11528\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NZDUSD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\nA dovish reaction to the BOC and a miss on inflation data at the end of last week has seen this pair spike higher. We are still in a trading range and the Head and Shoulders pattern is still in play.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11529\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCAD-D-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nAs you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.\r\n\r\nThere is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850.\r\n\r\nWe are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11530\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDCHF-MONTHLY-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\nNo change from last week.\r\n\r\nThis pair is a little boring at the moment. I think that we are still in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.\r\n\r\nWe have broken above 107.00 and I think a short from a little higher would offer greater value, circa. 108.00 would be great. Basically, a re-test of the underside of the 2012 trend line.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a very targeted currency at the moment as Bond Yields, RISK and TRADE WARS all play directly into how the JPY is traded.\r\n\r\nI am surprised by recent price action with the USD/JPY given all the geopolitical news hanging over the markets. This in itself makes me more cautious in what trades I am considering. This divergence is quite strange.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-21042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11531\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/USDJPY-WEEKLY-21042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1411\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-20.04.2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11507\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PS-SUMMARY-20.04.2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"808\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join my FX PREMIUM subscribers and subscribe to the “10,000 pips a year” group from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 are roughly as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP £90 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR €100 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>USD $120 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 12,700 per month</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD $150 per month</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…\r\n\r\nGo to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com  </a>  for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">TRADER EDUCATION:</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMost weeks, I will add an article in this section based on an area of importance in trading that I feel should be documented. It may not resonate with all traders but for some I hope they find it useful.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\n</strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>TRADING AROUND THE NEWS:</strong></span></p>\r\nI call myself a FUNDAMENTAL trader, but I am also a TECHNICAL trader at the same time, when it comes to timing my entries, therefore I do not very often place trades based on News Announcements, in fact it is a rare event for me that I would do so.\r\n\r\nIn fact, I am reluctant to trade around Non-Farm Payrolls and Central Bank Monetary Policy announcements, especially the FOMC and ECB.\r\n\r\nI have various beliefs that my experiences have taught me regarding these announcements that have generally taught me the same lesson: Stay Away\r\n\r\nI am referring to major news announcements. I don’t really pay attention to the smaller announcements because they usually don’t move the market much. I will go through why I avoid trading during major news events and various strategies for dealing with news announcements.\r\n\r\nFirst off, I believe that news announcements are almost totally unpredictable, I often refer to Non-Farm payrolls as a lottery. As you may know, there is usually a “forecast” and a “previous” number listed before the news announcement is made. The market’s reaction is generally based on whether the actual announcement is higher or lower than the forecast. The problem is that this assumes that most traders react the same way to the relation between the actual number, the forecast and the previous number. Even if we could correctly interpret this information, it is difficult to enter trades during these times because execution suffers within a fast-moving market.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, these releases have very few long-term implications and are unpredictable in the short term. Of course, there are traders that may use these numbers to some degree of success, but I have never seen any strong evidence that you can profit while trading those numbers over the long term. The one constant around major news announcements (such as non-farm payroll) is that there are rapid moves with above average magnitude. These moves can be very erratic. Sometimes the move is in one direction. Sometimes the move looks like it will be in one direction, and then moves back to starting point just as rapidly.\r\n\r\nFurthermore, these moves can be very irrational. Not only do they often ignore the logic of the news announcement itself, but these moves often ignore the logic of any technical analysis. It would be much easier to trade these announcements if traders were rational, but they are not. Therefore, to me the most useful aspect of these major announcements is the time they take place I use the timing of the announcements to avoid placing trades right before them.\r\n\r\nIf a pattern has almost completed, there is no advantage to placing a trade immediately before or after a news announcement. Let’s say that this trade is a long opportunity. Let’s also say that the pair is just above the entry. If this is the case and the news makes the pair shoot up, then we never entered and there would be no trade. If the news makes the pair shoot down then we will likely be stopped out. Therefore, we never would take this trade.\r\n\r\nIf the pattern is farther from completing, we still wait to enter until after the price action due to the news announcement has calmed down. If we already have entered a trade, we may close it before the news announcement comes out. This varies on a ton of different situations, which would be too long to write about here.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2. OPEN TRADES... HOW WILL I TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3. SENTIMENT,</u><u>FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.3.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n<u>4.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #279 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 21st April 2018', 'CARNEY CRUSHES THE CABLE and USD SPRINGS BACK TO LIFE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '11535-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-21 10:02:15', '2018-04-21 15:02:15', '', 11535, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/11535-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(11565, 1, '2018-04-28 05:48:23', '2018-04-28 10:48:23', '<h4>Flash Trades Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FLASH-28042018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11546\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FLASH-28042018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"774\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/FLASH-MARCH-YTD2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11355\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/FLASH-MARCH-YTD2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"980\" height=\"1094\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Previous Years</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FLASH-2017-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-10711 size-full\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FLASH-2017-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"864\" height=\"950\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8809\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FLASH-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"872\" height=\"952\" />\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FLASH-2015-COMP-copy.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10668\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FLASH-2015-COMP-copy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"422\" height=\"447\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLASH-2014-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8859\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLASH-2014-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"744\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n</div>\r\n</section>', 'Flash Trades', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2711-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-04-28 05:48:23', '2018-04-28 10:48:23', '', 2711, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2018/04/2711-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
