<strong><span style="font-size: 14pt;">1. THE FIRST SHOT – “THE SOAPBOX”:</span></strong>

Of the 52 weeks in a year that was one of them!

• A DOVISH hike from the FED.
• The TRUMP narrative goes global with TRADE WARS.
• The WH revolving door whooshes again: - HR McMaster, White House National Security Advisor and John Dowd TRUMPs lead Lawyer in the Mueller Russia Investigation both OUT!
• The BREXIT transition gets approval, albeit the IRELAND and GIBRALTAR border issues need to be agreed and finalized.

Over the past few blogs I have talked about economically driven markets and news driven markets. The market appears to be more focused on and reacts more to “news” driven events than responding to economic news. If you check back through the “RED” events in the Forex Factory calendar and then recall the responses, how many were market moving, or, offered some volatility compared with say, 12-18 months ago?

We are moving to a news driven environment with trading. Reactions and follow through to economic data is now very short lived assuming we get a reaction at all. I read during the week that the FOMC meeting was a waste of time. I could not get the context of the comment, but when a new FED CHAIR outlines the Central Bank position on monetary policy for the largest economy in the world, I would be very careful to just dismiss it as a waste of time or claim it to be irrelevant.

From a trading perspective I can understand that many traders and I was one of them were disappointed with the fact that it was a DOVISH HIKE. I strongly suspect that many people were caught the wrong side of the market when sentiment switched, so I guess from a positioning perspective many traders could call it a waste of time.

I truly hope that economic data will still retain a place but of late market reactions have been on the basis of a complacent and flippant response in favour of a TRUMP tweet!

Moving on...

We are now in TRADE WARS...

TRUMP has started something that he may in the future regret. It is an uncertain future and “tit for tat” moves could last forever. I am not so sure that the WTO, which appears to have no teeth at all could mediate through what will no doubt be a painful period.

The word RECIPROCAL was the word used by TRUMP prior to signing the tariff legislation. He wants and in reality, you cannot really argue the point if you agree with FREE TRADE. Many of the U.S. trade agreements were set up when some countries would have been treated as Emerging, such as South Korea. One certainly cannot count South Korea in that group any longer.
Over time, let’s see where we end up!

Of late as traders, geopolitical news has dictated many of the larger market moves, in both equities and FX. We have had several big changes over the past year or so that have brought this news rather than economic to the forefront: -

• TRUMP: A master control freak and media manipulator. TRUMP is either genuinely awkward, or, a bloody genius. His unpredictable style, non-Presidential and non-political, talk about it on Twitter approach has the media in a frenzy. Strip all of this down and TRUMP is just employing an age-old sales ploy to his approach on policy. Go in hard and then walk it back. There is nothing special here it's the style of doing it.
This is great theatre and, it has taken the narrative away from traditional sources.

• WORLD ECONOMIC CHANGE: We have now moved away from recession, away from the GFC. As the world economic position improves with the G10 countries in particular, the G10 Central Banks start to move away from a policy of accommodation to normalization. I am not alone in thinking that there has been a sense of complacency in the markets, over improved economic data. Whether you believe this improvement to be true is for another blog!

• SOCIAL MEDIA: Now deeply inter-twined in communications. The fact we see the news almost before its released. Or, is it because it is debated to the end of the world in Social Media it is treated as second hand news when released and thus this is why we have such muted reactions?

From a trading perspective if the markets are now becoming reactionary to news events this opens up a whole new can of worms on trading and the style of the way we trade.

FX...

Trading this week has all been about the JPY. It’s sensitive to GOLD, BONDS, EQUITIES and it is a SAFE HAVEN play. As we move forward into another week, this will be the currency to offer the best trading opportunities in my opinion.

Most other pairs look range bound and unless you are a range trader and understand the pitfalls, it is probably best to stay away, having said that some of the ranges are quite wide. (See section 2.5)

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<strong><span style="font-size: 14pt;">2. THIS WEEKS IMPORTANT TRADE INFORMATION:</span></strong>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">2.1. ECONOMIC DATA:</span>
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.</span>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/ECON-DATA-25032017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11277" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/ECON-DATA-25032017.png" alt="" width="1024" height="757" /></a>


<span style="text-decoration: underline;">2.2. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</span>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/GEOPOLITICAL-25032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11278" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/GEOPOLITICAL-25032018.png" alt="" width="1024" height="747" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">2.3. BIAS CHART - USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:</span>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Screen-Shot-2018-03-23-at-6.05.19-PM.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11297" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Screen-Shot-2018-03-23-at-6.05.19-PM.png" alt="" width="1024" height="724" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">2.4. USD OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</span>

The DXY as you can see from the chart below remains in it’s downtrend.

On FOMC day last week we hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (90.45) and then reversed sharply. This is now the key resistance level moving forward.

Longer timed charts show “BEAR FLAG” formations with measured moves as low as 82.00.

Initially, the recent lows of 88.20 need to be tested first and obviously USD bears have this level firmly set in their sights.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDDXY-24032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11302" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDDXY-24032018.png" alt="" width="1822" height="877" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">2.5. USD TRADING CHARTS:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">EUR/USD:</span>

The Daily chart below highlights the trading range that I believe we are sitting in.

1.2090 to 1.2550 is the range, as you can see from the chart we are just shuffling around in the middle of the range.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/EURUSD-D-24032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11299" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/EURUSD-D-24032018.png" alt="" width="1024" height="449" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">GBP/USD:</span>

We are now breaking higher. The breakthrough on BREXIT negotiations has allowed the GBP and related cross rates to mainly bottom out and move higher.

Good support now lies around 1.4000 and it is clear that following that psychological move the GBP bulls now have something like the recent highs as seen on the chart below of 1.4345 in mind.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/GBPUSD-D-24032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11300" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/GBPUSD-D-24032018.png" alt="" width="1024" height="449" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">AUD/USD:</span>

The China Tariff and duty trade is in play here. As soon as someone mentions issues with China as a trader you should think AUD.

Unless we break above the trend line seen on the chart below of c.0.7850 I remain bearish this pair and moves up the trend line resistance I believe will find sellers waiting.

We are to a large extent just range trading here waiting for a catalyst to break the boredom. Like many, I thought the FOMC would have been that catalyst... alas not!

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/AUDUSD-D-24032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11298" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/AUDUSD-D-24032018.png" alt="" width="1024" height="449" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">NZD/USD:</span>

Have we had a false breakdown?

From the chart below, you can see the move lower through 0.7176 on FOMC day then we have seen a swift move higher. Am I bullish? No, I believe that we are in a range, which is clearly defined on the chart of 0.7176 to 0.7350.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/NZDUSD-D-24032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11301" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/NZDUSD-D-24032018.png" alt="" width="1024" height="449" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">USD/CAD:</span>

We have a very bearish RED candle on the Weekly Chart below. My thoughts were on FOMC day to short at trend line resistance at 1.3180 after an initial spike higher as the announcement took place. That idea was very quickly blown out of the water as the USD sold off.

Like other pairs I think we are again in a range. 1.2800 to 1.3180 would be what I believe it to be.

I want to short the USD/CAD it fits into my longer-term view, but I am waiting patiently for at least 1.3000.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDCAD-WEEKLY-24032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11303" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDCAD-WEEKLY-24032018.png" alt="" width="1024" height="449" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">USD/CHF:</span>

As you can see on the Monthly chart below, the triangle pattern is “RIPE” for a breakout. My thought process is a long side breakout towards parity once again.

There is a range in play, which I have been following of late which is from 0.9190 to 0.9850. I am a little reluctant to aggressively trade the CHF given its flight to safety and neutrality attraction.

We are tightening in the triangle.... something is going to give soon.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDCHF-MONTHLY-24032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11304" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDCHF-MONTHLY-24032018.png" alt="" width="1024" height="449" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">USD/JPY:</span>

We are in the throws, in my opinion of breaking down towards 102.00.

The triangle breakdown measured move play is still valid. TRUMP’s TRADE WARS was the catalyst to start the move lower. Stops have been taken below 105.00 and we are now consolidating.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDJPY-WEEKLY-24032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11305" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/USDJPY-WEEKLY-24032018.png" alt="" width="1024" height="449" /></a>

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<strong><span style="font-size: 14pt;">3. THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</span></strong>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.1. PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</span>
(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PS-SUMMARY-24032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11279" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PS-SUMMARY-24032018.png" alt="" width="1024" height="824" /></a>

You can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 is roughly as follows: -

• GBP £90 per month
• EUR €100 per month
• USD $120 per month
• JPY 12,700 per month
• AUD $150 per month

This represents a great value way to subscribe…

Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.

<strong><span style="font-size: 14pt;">4. PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</span></strong>
<span style="font-size: 10pt;">(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.1. TRADING REVIEW:</span>

ADDED LAST WEEK: 799 pips
MONTH TOTAL SO FAR: 1,401 pips
YEAR TO DATE: 5,303 pips

Last week the JPY and cross rate pairs dominated the “Pip Grab”, and frankly looking forward I do not see this changing.

I am happy with the overall performance, who wouldn’t be? - 50% of the annual objective achieved with not yet ¼ of the year completed!

I have some decisions ahead though as it looks like the USD is about to be sold off in force and I am wrongly positioned with the NZD/USD. Longer-term, I feel that the NZD is heading lower, but I should take into consideration what could be a corrective move higher for possibly the next couple of months. On the 60-minute chart there is an inverted Head and Shoulders measured move back to 0.7430.

I feel that the USD (DXY) is moving lower and whilst this can happen without the commodity currencies participating, it’s not clever to carry all the overnight costs through a few months with more substantial trade position sizes.

Below are my NZD currency pairs that I am potentially the wrong way with, or need to think about moving forward: -

1. NZD/USD (POS661): I am happy to sit with it whilst we are in the range 0.7200 to 0.7440. A break out of this range above 0.7440 and it is toast.

2. AUD/NZD (POS540, POS611 &amp; POS708): This has been a long trade that I have held for over two years. I keep adding trades banking $$$ and then removing them. I hold these in a broker account on their own, I never really look at the account. The positions are small, and I don't think about them much other than the odd alarm goes off to jolt me to take trades off or add more limit orders.

The fact is though whilst they are small trades not even 50% position size in total they are an annoyance as the pair just cannot move higher and now that TRADE WARS are “GREEN FOR GO” the AUD is under pressure. I thought that the NZD would have the same reaction but alas NOT!

I have about 1,200 in pip losses sitting there. The overnight costs are minimal, but I think I have to make a line in the sand decision soon with these trades and bite the bullet!
3. EUR/NZD (POS709): I will keep this trade, as it is a RISK OFF trade but also it does respond just as much to EUR moves as the NZD.

4. GBP/NZD (POS743 &amp; POS744): Same as the EUR/NZD. In addition, good news on BREXIT can elevate this pair 300 pips in a day, I mean an hour!

Moving on...

TRUMP was in full flight last week. It’s no longer weird or bizarre it's the new normal. He is literally dominating not just the idiots on CNN, but FOX news and now there is a flute on BLOOMBERG who starts every sentence with either Donald Trump or President Trump, it is incredible.

I still see, as stated earlier JPY being the trade moving forward.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.2. OPEN TRADES...HOW I WILL TRADE THIS WEEK:</span>

As mentioned already the NZD pairs are my immediate concern, in fact my only concern at the moment.

I will be adding JPY trades initially and then looking around. However, I do shout out the words “Caution and do NOT get carried away” we need to see how the TRADE WARS news pans out.

BREXIT should feature this coming week. There is NOT a lot of economic data, so I am expecting a TRUMP driven market, but at the same time I am well placed for positive BREXIT news with GBP/USD, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD longs and a EUR/GBP short.

I am looking to add another GBP/USD long trade as soon as the existing (POS747) is passed +100 pips profit. I do see a potential move and breakout towards 1.5000.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.3. A LOOK AT CROSS-RATES &amp; EMERGING MARKETS PAIRS:</span>

I have received a couple of requests recently to offer my opinions on the exotic less traded currency pairs. In addition to these requests for a number of weeks now, communications have increased vis-à-vis cross rate pairs.

Requests have been focused on something daily, which I have resisted due to time constraints so far, however I thought as a “bridge” between everything I would start here.

I have an open page. Basically, any pairs that are currently in these categories that I want to talk about that are “LIVE TRADES” will appear in the previous section 4.2.

Let me start here this week with an overview of how I see things.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.3.1. CROSS RATES:</span>

The TRADE WARS effect on pairs like EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD, can at sometimes be very difficult to predict. With major news events for example they will move with the dominant currency on which the news relates.

Right now, I am expecting some very bullish announcements from the EU and UK over BREXIT, especially a working framework on the GIBRALTAR and IRELAND borders. When this is announced I see cable motoring towards 1.5000 as practically all the immediate uncertainties are removed. In my opinion I would expect GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY to all rise and EUR/GBP to crater!!

However, for now these crosses are not really doing much. Last Friday’s price action, when there was no real news they were treading water. As soon as the U.S. equity markets started to fall as they are classic RISK OFF trades the EUR and GBP commodity crosses fell.

The CAD crosses were once solely moving in line with the VIX and WTi. This relationship has been gone for some time, but on Friday one could see parallels once again. In my opinion this is something to look out for moving forward. I thought OIL was going to move sub $60 a few weeks ago, I got that completely wrong we are now closer to $70 now with WTi.

JPY crosses, I have talked about. These are the trades of the moment as the SAFE HAVEN trades is in vogue.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.3.2. EMERGING MARKETS:</span>

For me, I do not claim by any stretch to be an expert or a prolific EM pair trader. In fact, far from it.

The EM pairs that I look at from time to time are USD/TRY, USD/PLN, USD/MXN and USD/ZAR. Beyond these three I struggle really to understand the moves. I know that many of you like to trade the obscure, but the rate spreads and overnight costs attributed to these pairs are highway robbery.

At the moment NAFTA negotiations have caught my eye hence my current interest in the USD/MXN.

The recent political situation in South African was interesting but the big move lower has resulted in the USD/ZAR behaving more like a catfish than a salmon.

With the TRADE WARS best guess scenario being that matters could escalate in the coming weeks, I do think that there are EM opportunities. I have no strong views at the moment, but I will do my research.

I know that SAXO BANK is very keen on EM pairs. I usually trade opposite what they recommend, so let’s see what they have as opinions and thoughts!

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.4. SENTIMENT, FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.4.1. OVERVIEW THOUGHTS (MY MACRO PLAN &amp; IDEAS):</span>

I am focused on the JPY. At the end of last week, it was in consolidation mode. I see the move lower starting as soon as China declares its hand on retaliation on the trade tariffs.

The NZD is in focus as mentioned above.

The USD right now is all over the map. It will shortly be aligned and then I will feel very confident moving forward. I do not want to chase, and I do want to be selective with my selection of trade pairs.

Right now, I am looking at: -

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY and USD/CAD.

In addition to the “usual subjects” above, the USD/NOK, USD/SEK, AUD/CAD, EUR/CHF and EUR/AUD are all on my “HIT” list.

I have in mind that the European currencies EUR &amp; GBP will take the USD (DXY) lower even without the aid of the AUD, CAD &amp; NZD. I just want confirmation of this and I will be a Happy Bunny over Easter. However, I do think it could possibly be an across the board USD sell off. Let’s see.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.4.2. THE MARKET SENTIMENT CHART:</span>

The USD “SENTIMENT CHART” is still not perfectly aligned, which is quite surprising given the directional moves we saw towards the end of last week.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/SENTIMENT-24032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11280" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/SENTIMENT-24032018.png" alt="" width="856" height="1024" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LIVE-24032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11281" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LIVE-24032018.png" alt="" width="695" height="1024" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</span>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LIMIT-ORDERS-24032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11282" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/LIMIT-ORDERS-24032018.png" alt="" width="736" height="1024" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</span>

Nothing at all this week.

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<strong><span style="font-size: 14pt;">5. THE FINAL SHOT:</span></strong>

Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,

As usual…

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Twitter: @ThePremService
http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/

BLOG VERSION: #171 THE PREMIUM SERVICE
DATE: 24th March 2018