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(10214, 1, '2017-10-14 07:42:25', '2017-10-14 12:42:25', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly two pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nGBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Thankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\nI added 160 pips last week, which frankly I thought there was little chance of doing, so I am happy.\r\n\r\nThe markets I think were surprised with the US inflation data last Friday. I expected HOT numbers and we got small misses across the board. The minimum anticipation was for at least in line prints. The moves that followed slight misses were extreme in a couple of cases which is now the normal response. Nevertheless, it was a miss, how the markets play with this data next week will be crucial. I suspect that unless something of a miracle happens we will sooner rather than later be testing the DXY support of 90.83.\r\n\r\nDuring last week, I spoke with a couple of you and brought up my current trading volumes and mentioned RISK MANAGEMENT, I promised that I would cover this point in this section of the blog this weekend.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING:\r\nAt the moment, I have a larger than normal number of LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS placed across my brokers. Over the past few days talking with some subscribers, it quickly became apparent that some of you guys were running with way too much RISK and that whilst everyone’s RISK TOLERANCE is different, and I respect that, there was a need for me to update what already exists in “THE LIBRARY” with a 2017 version, although in my opinion, the rules are very similar, in fact still the same.\r\n\r\nTrading in the FX market has elephant traps set all over place, no matter which way we move to improve our trading returns there are barriers. The only constant that we can control is RISK.\r\n\r\nWhether trades are LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS, in my opinion we should assume that they are live trades and treat our RISK that way.\r\n\r\nThis is how I approach matters: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>I work on the basis that every trade has a STOP LOSS liability of 200 pips. (This average level allows for my moving of STOP levels from time to time and it also takes into consideration the mix of FT, RT, FUN &amp; POS trades).\r\n\r\nYou can of course set up a spread sheet to give you exact numbers. I know from experience that I am not touching near to my 3% RISK LIMIT based upon the sizes of the broker accounts I have and my day to day use for the different categories of trades. However, the mix of trade styles is skewed at the moment and because of this my position sizing has been reduced to compensate.\r\n\r\n(This process does NOT however include one set of trading pairs which I have exempted from the main accounts into their own broker account. I am dealing with them on a very long time frame, already over two years, the AUD/NZD trades)</li>\r\n 	<li>This combined number of pips should then be multiplied up by trade size incorporating the mixture of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lots to give you the actual total pip exposure.</li>\r\n 	<li>You can be clever and it requires a little work but if you are skilled enough you can have an actual CONTINGENT LIABILITY based on LIVE trades, and a future version based on LIMIT ORDERS as well as a combined version. This gives you complete 100% management.</li>\r\n 	<li>This is the calculated into $$$ value and this becomes what I call your CONTINGENT LIABILITY.</li>\r\n 	<li>It is your CONTINGENT LIABILITY expressed as a percentage to your broker account balance that gives you your RISK %.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEXAMPLE:\r\n\r\nBROKER ACCOUNT BALANCE = USD$100,000.00\r\n\r\n15 LIVE TRADES\r\n10 LIMIT ORDER TRADES\r\n25 TOTAL TRADES\r\n25 x 200 pips\r\nRISK = 25 x 200 = 5,000 pips\r\n\r\nSINGLE MINI LOT TRADER = CONTINGENT LIABILITY of $5,000.00\r\n(This example assumes ALL trades are 1 x mini lot. You would need to factor in for micro and standard lot volumes if applicable)\r\n\r\nAs you know my RISK TOLERANCE = 3%, in this example the account has a RISK of 5%.\r\n\r\nEveryone has a different RISK TOLERANCE. If you are happy with 5%, 7%, 8% so be it is your money. However, if you are too exposed what can you do?\r\n\r\nWHAT TO DO TO FIX?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add more funds to your broker account.</li>\r\n 	<li>Reduce position sizes so that exposure based upon a mix of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lot trades are not greater than 3% of your broker account balance. (Or whatever your RISK TOLERANCE % is)</li>\r\n 	<li>Close positions to bring your RISK inside your tolerance level.</li>\r\n 	<li>Possibly if you understand how to do it, HEDGE your position as it stops RISK increasing but managing your way out of a hedged position can be difficult. It can take a long time as the best conditions should be directional with great momentum.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDO I EVER BREAK MY 3% CEILING?\r\n\r\nNot in my main USD major or my JPY broker accounts because that is where my position sizes are usually larger.\r\n\r\nI mentioned this earlier, I have my one exception and it’s NOT a major break from my principles but I acknowledge it is different approach, but it is managed.\r\n\r\nAs many of you are aware from my existing trades and limit orders my NZD cross rate exposure, mainly through the AUD/NZD is well beyond the 3% when it is all said and done as I have added a lot more RISK to my NZD cross positions through the EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and NZD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI operate all my NZD cross rate exposure through a separate broker account. My CONTINGENT LIABILITY is just over 5.5%. I have set my limit at 7%\r\n\r\nI control RISK through a combination of hedging and position sizing adjustments. My NZD is a long, long term CORE TRADE primarily on the AUD/NZD cross.\r\n\r\nThis has been a two-year trade so far and I see it operating for another two-years minimum. I wanted greater flexibility given my FUNDAMENTAL views and the period within I am proposing to work this trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nI am very lucky, I can operate two large accounts (from my own values) and three smaller ones to manage trades through. The gap between my trading positions and the account balance may seem unrealistic at times especially for new traders to understand, however this is what RISK MANAGEMENT is all about.\r\n\r\nThere is never a threat about a margin call and three or four bad trades will not KILL the account, it hurts me, but that\'s trading.\r\n\r\nI am here for the long haul. Longevity in trading is about patience and being sidelined quite a bit if you are NOT happy with the conditions.\r\n\r\nI am not sure whether this helps, I hope it does not confuse.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nThis bizarre market continues to baffle me.\r\n\r\nLast week, I thought that a HAWKISH FED would produce USD strength across the board – we saw weakness.\r\n\r\nSpanish police dragging people away from polling booths followed by a possible declaration of independence I thought would be bad news from whatever perspective viewed for the EURO – it did nothing, hardly moved.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader, I find myself trading semi FUNDAMENTAL and adjusting my style, approach and thoughts constantly.\r\n\r\nI am still comfortable being long AUD/NZD. I still believe the NZD currency is over-valued and fair value is closer to 0.6500 (NZD/USD). This makes me comfortable being long the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD cross rates.\r\n\r\nIn addition, should the JPY correct lower, which is very possible, it should bring all JPY pairs lower with it eventually. This should be a RISK event therefore, the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD should move higher.\r\n\r\nThe EURO is now confusing me, following Draghi’s very clear comments earlier this month. Absolutely clear forward guidance, better than Yellen and Carney added together.\r\n\r\nThe AUD, despite comments from the RBA, I think could be on a corrective move higher before heading lower again. Whilst this helps my AUD/NZD trade it does nothing for my EUR/AUD or GBP/AUD trades, although the latter is hedged at a 200-pip loss. Also, the JPY has a place to play here as already mentioned.\r\n\r\nDo not get me started on the fecking pig of a currency the cable. I just do not know where Theresa May and the then the BOE are going to go with this one especially if the EU grant a two-year extension to the Article 50 deadline date under the guise of transitional time. What happens if the EU says no extension?  Whooooooooooosh…. It could be the outcome, who knows?\r\n\r\nThe CAD, I was clear on its move lower through 1.2000 (USD/CAD) but it is struggling with 1.2460. In addition, you weigh in the comments from Poloz and the well-known phrase I used to be decisive and now I am not quite sure and that sums up the markets view of the loonie.\r\n\r\nI think if NAFTA remains with Canada and the U.S. with a cross border trading alliance this will do the trick and put some lead in the pencil of the CAD$ and it should strengthen as a result. The economic data that couldn’t miss for months back to back has tailed off at late. So, with rate hikes from the BOC being data dependent this needs to improve.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10197\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017-771x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"771\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n2 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY and 2 x short LIMIT ORDERS with USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait as per my comments above in section 4.2\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 2 x EUR/NZD long trades plus a short NZD/JPY trade.\r\n\r\nI still hold a hedged long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips. I am not in any rush to work my way out of this position.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further 3 x GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am waiting for the market to reset before adding additional trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10199\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017-825x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017-900x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nAbsolutely nothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #151 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE EU TROJAN HORSE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10213-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:42:25', '2017-10-14 12:42:25', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10213-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10215, 1, '2017-10-14 07:43:27', '2017-10-14 12:43:27', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly two pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nGBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\nI added 160 pips last week, which frankly I thought there was little chance of doing, so I am happy.\r\n\r\nThe markets I think were surprised with the US inflation data last Friday. I expected HOT numbers and we got small misses across the board. The minimum anticipation was for at least in line prints. The moves that followed slight misses were extreme in a couple of cases which is now the normal response. Nevertheless, it was a miss, how the markets play with this data next week will be crucial. I suspect that unless something of a miracle happens we will sooner rather than later be testing the DXY support of 90.83.\r\n\r\nDuring last week, I spoke with a couple of you and brought up my current trading volumes and mentioned RISK MANAGEMENT, I promised that I would cover this point in this section of the blog this weekend.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING:\r\nAt the moment, I have a larger than normal number of LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS placed across my brokers. Over the past few days talking with some subscribers, it quickly became apparent that some of you guys were running with way too much RISK and that whilst everyone’s RISK TOLERANCE is different, and I respect that, there was a need for me to update what already exists in “THE LIBRARY” with a 2017 version, although in my opinion, the rules are very similar, in fact still the same.\r\n\r\nTrading in the FX market has elephant traps set all over place, no matter which way we move to improve our trading returns there are barriers. The only constant that we can control is RISK.\r\n\r\nWhether trades are LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS, in my opinion we should assume that they are live trades and treat our RISK that way.\r\n\r\nThis is how I approach matters: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>I work on the basis that every trade has a STOP LOSS liability of 200 pips. (This average level allows for my moving of STOP levels from time to time and it also takes into consideration the mix of FT, RT, FUN &amp; POS trades).You can of course set up a spread sheet to give you exact numbers. I know from experience that I am not touching near to my 3% RISK LIMIT based upon the sizes of the broker accounts I have and my day to day use for the different categories of trades. However, the mix of trade styles is skewed at the moment and because of this my position sizing has been reduced to compensate.\r\n\r\n(This process does NOT however include one set of trading pairs which I have exempted from the main accounts into their own broker account. I am dealing with them on a very long time frame, already over two years, the AUD/NZD trades)</li>\r\n 	<li>This combined number of pips should then be multiplied up by trade size incorporating the mixture of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lots to give you the actual total pip exposure.</li>\r\n 	<li>You can be clever and it requires a little work but if you are skilled enough you can have an actual CONTINGENT LIABILITY based on LIVE trades, and a future version based on LIMIT ORDERS as well as a combined version. This gives you complete 100% management.</li>\r\n 	<li>This is the calculated into $$$ value and this becomes what I call your CONTINGENT LIABILITY.</li>\r\n 	<li>It is your CONTINGENT LIABILITY expressed as a percentage to your broker account balance that gives you your RISK %.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEXAMPLE:\r\n\r\nBROKER ACCOUNT BALANCE = USD$100,000.00\r\n\r\n15 LIVE TRADES\r\n10 LIMIT ORDER TRADES\r\n25 TOTAL TRADES\r\n25 x 200 pips\r\nRISK = 25 x 200 = 5,000 pips\r\n\r\nSINGLE MINI LOT TRADER = CONTINGENT LIABILITY of $5,000.00\r\n(This example assumes ALL trades are 1 x mini lot. You would need to factor in for micro and standard lot volumes if applicable)\r\n\r\nAs you know my RISK TOLERANCE = 3%, in this example the account has a RISK of 5%.\r\n\r\nEveryone has a different RISK TOLERANCE. If you are happy with 5%, 7%, 8% so be it is your money. However, if you are too exposed what can you do?\r\n\r\nWHAT TO DO TO FIX?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add more funds to your broker account.</li>\r\n 	<li>Reduce position sizes so that exposure based upon a mix of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lot trades are not greater than 3% of your broker account balance. (Or whatever your RISK TOLERANCE % is)</li>\r\n 	<li>Close positions to bring your RISK inside your tolerance level.</li>\r\n 	<li>Possibly if you understand how to do it, HEDGE your position as it stops RISK increasing but managing your way out of a hedged position can be difficult. It can take a long time as the best conditions should be directional with great momentum.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDO I EVER BREAK MY 3% CEILING?\r\n\r\nNot in my main USD major or my JPY broker accounts because that is where my position sizes are usually larger.\r\n\r\nI mentioned this earlier, I have my one exception and it’s NOT a major break from my principles but I acknowledge it is different approach, but it is managed.\r\n\r\nAs many of you are aware from my existing trades and limit orders my NZD cross rate exposure, mainly through the AUD/NZD is well beyond the 3% when it is all said and done as I have added a lot more RISK to my NZD cross positions through the EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and NZD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI operate all my NZD cross rate exposure through a separate broker account. My CONTINGENT LIABILITY is just over 5.5%. I have set my limit at 7%\r\n\r\nI control RISK through a combination of hedging and position sizing adjustments. My NZD is a long, long term CORE TRADE primarily on the AUD/NZD cross.\r\n\r\nThis has been a two-year trade so far and I see it operating for another two-years minimum. I wanted greater flexibility given my FUNDAMENTAL views and the period within I am proposing to work this trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nI am very lucky, I can operate two large accounts (from my own values) and three smaller ones to manage trades through. The gap between my trading positions and the account balance may seem unrealistic at times especially for new traders to understand, however this is what RISK MANAGEMENT is all about.\r\n\r\nThere is never a threat about a margin call and three or four bad trades will not KILL the account, it hurts me, but that\'s trading.\r\n\r\nI am here for the long haul. Longevity in trading is about patience and being sidelined quite a bit if you are NOT happy with the conditions.\r\n\r\nI am not sure whether this helps, I hope it does not confuse.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis bizarre market continues to baffle me.\r\n\r\nLast week, I thought that a HAWKISH FED would produce USD strength across the board – we saw weakness.\r\n\r\nSpanish police dragging people away from polling booths followed by a possible declaration of independence I thought would be bad news from whatever perspective viewed for the EURO – it did nothing, hardly moved.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader, I find myself trading semi FUNDAMENTAL and adjusting my style, approach and thoughts constantly.\r\n\r\nI am still comfortable being long AUD/NZD. I still believe the NZD currency is over-valued and fair value is closer to 0.6500 (NZD/USD). This makes me comfortable being long the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD cross rates.\r\n\r\nIn addition, should the JPY correct lower, which is very possible, it should bring all JPY pairs lower with it eventually. This should be a RISK event therefore, the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD should move higher.\r\n\r\nThe EURO is now confusing me, following Draghi’s very clear comments earlier this month. Absolutely clear forward guidance, better than Yellen and Carney added together.\r\n\r\nThe AUD, despite comments from the RBA, I think could be on a corrective move higher before heading lower again. Whilst this helps my AUD/NZD trade it does nothing for my EUR/AUD or GBP/AUD trades, although the latter is hedged at a 200-pip loss. Also, the JPY has a place to play here as already mentioned.\r\n\r\nDo not get me started on the fecking pig of a currency the cable. I just do not know where Theresa May and the then the BOE are going to go with this one especially if the EU grant a two-year extension to the Article 50 deadline date under the guise of transitional time. What happens if the EU says no extension?  Whooooooooooosh…. It could be the outcome, who knows?\r\n\r\nThe CAD, I was clear on its move lower through 1.2000 (USD/CAD) but it is struggling with 1.2460. In addition, you weigh in the comments from Poloz and the well-known phrase I used to be decisive and now I am not quite sure and that sums up the markets view of the loonie.\r\n\r\nI think if NAFTA remains with Canada and the U.S. with a cross border trading alliance this will do the trick and put some lead in the pencil of the CAD$ and it should strengthen as a result. The economic data that couldn’t miss for months back to back has tailed off at late. So, with rate hikes from the BOC being data dependent this needs to improve.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10197\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017-771x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"771\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n2 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY and 2 x short LIMIT ORDERS with USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait as per my comments above in section 4.2\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 2 x EUR/NZD long trades plus a short NZD/JPY trade.\r\n\r\nI still hold a hedged long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips. I am not in any rush to work my way out of this position.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further 3 x GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am waiting for the market to reset before adding additional trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10199\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017-825x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017-900x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nAbsolutely nothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #151 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE EU TROJAN HORSE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10213-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:43:27', '2017-10-14 12:43:27', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10213-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10216, 1, '2017-10-14 07:51:01', '2017-10-14 12:51:01', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly two pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nGBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\nI added 160 pips last week, which frankly I thought there was little chance of doing, so I am happy.\r\n\r\nThe markets I think were surprised with the US inflation data last Friday. I expected HOT numbers and we got small misses across the board. The minimum anticipation was for at least in line prints. The moves that followed slight misses were extreme in a couple of cases which is now the normal response. Nevertheless, it was a miss, how the markets play with this data next week will be crucial. I suspect that unless something of a miracle happens we will sooner rather than later be testing the DXY support of 90.83.\r\n\r\nDuring last week, I spoke with a couple of you and brought up my current trading volumes and mentioned RISK MANAGEMENT, I promised that I would cover this point in this section of the blog this weekend.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING:\r\n\r\nAt the moment, I have a larger than normal number of LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS placed across my brokers. Over the past few days talking with some subscribers, it quickly became apparent that some of you guys were running with way too much RISK and that whilst everyone’s RISK TOLERANCE is different, and I respect that, there was a need for me to update what already exists in “THE LIBRARY” with a 2017 version, although in my opinion, the rules are very similar, in fact still the same.\r\n\r\nTrading in the FX market has elephant traps set all over place, no matter which way we move to improve our trading returns there are barriers. The only constant that we can control is RISK.\r\n\r\nWhether trades are LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS, in my opinion we should assume that they are live trades and treat our RISK that way.\r\n\r\nThis is how I approach matters: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>I work on the basis that every trade has a STOP LOSS liability of 200 pips. (This average level allows for my moving of STOP levels from time to time and it also takes into consideration the mix of FT, RT, FUN &amp; POS trades).You can of course set up a spread sheet to give you exact numbers. I know from experience that I am not touching near to my 3% RISK LIMIT based upon the sizes of the broker accounts I have and my day to day use for the different categories of trades. However, the mix of trade styles is skewed at the moment and because of this my position sizing has been reduced to compensate.(This process does NOT however include one set of trading pairs which I have exempted from the main accounts into their own broker account. I am dealing with them on a very long time frame, already over two years, the AUD/NZD trades)</li>\r\n 	<li>This combined number of pips should then be multiplied up by trade size incorporating the mixture of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lots to give you the actual total pip exposure.</li>\r\n 	<li>You can be clever and it requires a little work but if you are skilled enough you can have an actual CONTINGENT LIABILITY based on LIVE trades, and a future version based on LIMIT ORDERS as well as a combined version. This gives you complete 100% management.</li>\r\n 	<li>This is the calculated into $$$ value and this becomes what I call your CONTINGENT LIABILITY.</li>\r\n 	<li>It is your CONTINGENT LIABILITY expressed as a percentage to your broker account balance that gives you your RISK %.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nEXAMPLE:\r\n\r\nBROKER ACCOUNT BALANCE = USD$100,000.00\r\n\r\n15 LIVE TRADES\r\n10 LIMIT ORDER TRADES\r\n25 TOTAL TRADES\r\n25 x 200 pips\r\nRISK = 25 x 200 = 5,000 pips\r\n\r\nSINGLE MINI LOT TRADER = CONTINGENT LIABILITY of $5,000.00\r\n(This example assumes ALL trades are 1 x mini lot. You would need to factor in for micro and standard lot volumes if applicable)\r\n\r\nAs you know my RISK TOLERANCE = 3%, in this example the account has a RISK of 5%.\r\n\r\nEveryone has a different RISK TOLERANCE. If you are happy with 5%, 7%, 8% so be it is your money. However, if you are too exposed what can you do?\r\n\r\nWHAT TO DO TO FIX?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add more funds to your broker account.</li>\r\n 	<li>Reduce position sizes so that exposure based upon a mix of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lot trades are not greater than 3% of your broker account balance. (Or whatever your RISK TOLERANCE % is)</li>\r\n 	<li>Close positions to bring your RISK inside your tolerance level.</li>\r\n 	<li>Possibly if you understand how to do it, HEDGE your position as it stops RISK increasing but managing your way out of a hedged position can be difficult. It can take a long time as the best conditions should be directional with great momentum.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDO I EVER BREAK MY 3% CEILING?\r\n\r\nNot in my main USD major or my JPY broker accounts because that is where my position sizes are usually larger.\r\n\r\nI mentioned this earlier, I have my one exception and it’s NOT a major break from my principles but I acknowledge it is different approach, but it is managed.\r\n\r\nAs many of you are aware from my existing trades and limit orders my NZD cross rate exposure, mainly through the AUD/NZD is well beyond the 3% when it is all said and done as I have added a lot more RISK to my NZD cross positions through the EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and NZD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI operate all my NZD cross rate exposure through a separate broker account. My CONTINGENT LIABILITY is just over 5.5%. I have set my limit at 7%\r\n\r\nI control RISK through a combination of hedging and position sizing adjustments. My NZD is a long, long term CORE TRADE primarily on the AUD/NZD cross.\r\n\r\nThis has been a two-year trade so far and I see it operating for another two-years minimum. I wanted greater flexibility given my FUNDAMENTAL views and the period within I am proposing to work this trade.\r\n\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nI am very lucky, I can operate two large accounts (from my own values) and three smaller ones to manage trades through. The gap between my trading positions and the account balance may seem unrealistic at times especially for new traders to understand, however this is what RISK MANAGEMENT is all about.\r\n\r\nThere is never a threat about a margin call and three or four bad trades will not KILL the account, it hurts me, but that\'s trading.\r\n\r\nI am here for the long haul. Longevity in trading is about patience and being sidelined quite a bit if you are NOT happy with the conditions.\r\n\r\nI am not sure whether this helps, I hope it does not confuse.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nThis bizarre market continues to baffle me.\r\n\r\nLast week, I thought that a HAWKISH FED would produce USD strength across the board – we saw weakness.\r\n\r\nSpanish police dragging people away from polling booths followed by a possible declaration of independence I thought would be bad news from whatever perspective viewed for the EURO – it did nothing, hardly moved.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader, I find myself trading semi FUNDAMENTAL and adjusting my style, approach and thoughts constantly.\r\n\r\nI am still comfortable being long AUD/NZD. I still believe the NZD currency is over-valued and fair value is closer to 0.6500 (NZD/USD). This makes me comfortable being long the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD cross rates.\r\n\r\nIn addition, should the JPY correct lower, which is very possible, it should bring all JPY pairs lower with it eventually. This should be a RISK event therefore, the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD should move higher.\r\n\r\nThe EURO is now confusing me, following Draghi’s very clear comments earlier this month. Absolutely clear forward guidance, better than Yellen and Carney added together.\r\n\r\nThe AUD, despite comments from the RBA, I think could be on a corrective move higher before heading lower again. Whilst this helps my AUD/NZD trade it does nothing for my EUR/AUD or GBP/AUD trades, although the latter is hedged at a 200-pip loss. Also, the JPY has a place to play here as already mentioned.\r\n\r\nDo not get me started on the fecking pig of a currency the cable. I just do not know where Theresa May and the then the BOE are going to go with this one especially if the EU grant a two-year extension to the Article 50 deadline date under the guise of transitional time. What happens if the EU says no extension?  Whooooooooooosh…. It could be the outcome, who knows?\r\n\r\nThe CAD, I was clear on its move lower through 1.2000 (USD/CAD) but it is struggling with 1.2460. In addition, you weigh in the comments from Poloz and the well-known phrase I used to be decisive and now I am not quite sure and that sums up the markets view of the loonie.\r\n\r\nI think if NAFTA remains with Canada and the U.S. with a cross border trading alliance this will do the trick and put some lead in the pencil of the CAD$ and it should strengthen as a result. The economic data that couldn’t miss for months back to back has tailed off at late. So, with rate hikes from the BOC being data dependent this needs to improve.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10197\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017-771x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"771\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n2 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY and 2 x short LIMIT ORDERS with USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait as per my comments above in section 4.2\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 2 x EUR/NZD long trades plus a short NZD/JPY trade.\r\n\r\nI still hold a hedged long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips. I am not in any rush to work my way out of this position.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further 3 x GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am waiting for the market to reset before adding additional trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10199\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017-825x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017-900x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nAbsolutely nothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #151 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE EU TROJAN HORSE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10213-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:51:01', '2017-10-14 12:51:01', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10213-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10217, 1, '2017-10-14 07:51:13', '2017-10-14 12:51:13', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly two pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nGBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\nI added 160 pips last week, which frankly I thought there was little chance of doing, so I am happy.\r\n\r\nThe markets I think were surprised with the US inflation data last Friday. I expected HOT numbers and we got small misses across the board. The minimum anticipation was for at least in line prints. The moves that followed slight misses were extreme in a couple of cases which is now the normal response. Nevertheless, it was a miss, how the markets play with this data next week will be crucial. I suspect that unless something of a miracle happens we will sooner rather than later be testing the DXY support of 90.83.\r\n\r\nDuring last week, I spoke with a couple of you and brought up my current trading volumes and mentioned RISK MANAGEMENT, I promised that I would cover this point in this section of the blog this weekend.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING:\r\n\r\nAt the moment, I have a larger than normal number of LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS placed across my brokers. Over the past few days talking with some subscribers, it quickly became apparent that some of you guys were running with way too much RISK and that whilst everyone’s RISK TOLERANCE is different, and I respect that, there was a need for me to update what already exists in “THE LIBRARY” with a 2017 version, although in my opinion, the rules are very similar, in fact still the same.\r\n\r\nTrading in the FX market has elephant traps set all over place, no matter which way we move to improve our trading returns there are barriers. The only constant that we can control is RISK.\r\n\r\nWhether trades are LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS, in my opinion we should assume that they are live trades and treat our RISK that way.\r\n\r\nThis is how I approach matters: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>I work on the basis that every trade has a STOP LOSS liability of 200 pips. (This average level allows for my moving of STOP levels from time to time and it also takes into consideration the mix of FT, RT, FUN &amp; POS trades).You can of course set up a spread sheet to give you exact numbers. I know from experience that I am not touching near to my 3% RISK LIMIT based upon the sizes of the broker accounts I have and my day to day use for the different categories of trades. However, the mix of trade styles is skewed at the moment and because of this my position sizing has been reduced to compensate.(This process does NOT however include one set of trading pairs which I have exempted from the main accounts into their own broker account. I am dealing with them on a very long time frame, already over two years, the AUD/NZD trades)</li>\r\n 	<li>This combined number of pips should then be multiplied up by trade size incorporating the mixture of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lots to give you the actual total pip exposure.</li>\r\n 	<li>You can be clever and it requires a little work but if you are skilled enough you can have an actual CONTINGENT LIABILITY based on LIVE trades, and a future version based on LIMIT ORDERS as well as a combined version. This gives you complete 100% management.</li>\r\n 	<li>This is the calculated into $$$ value and this becomes what I call your CONTINGENT LIABILITY.</li>\r\n 	<li>It is your CONTINGENT LIABILITY expressed as a percentage to your broker account balance that gives you your RISK %.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nEXAMPLE:\r\n\r\nBROKER ACCOUNT BALANCE = USD$100,000.00\r\n\r\n15 LIVE TRADES\r\n10 LIMIT ORDER TRADES\r\n25 TOTAL TRADES\r\n25 x 200 pips\r\nRISK = 25 x 200 = 5,000 pips\r\n\r\nSINGLE MINI LOT TRADER = CONTINGENT LIABILITY of $5,000.00\r\n(This example assumes ALL trades are 1 x mini lot. You would need to factor in for micro and standard lot volumes if applicable)\r\n\r\nAs you know my RISK TOLERANCE = 3%, in this example the account has a RISK of 5%.\r\n\r\nEveryone has a different RISK TOLERANCE. If you are happy with 5%, 7%, 8% so be it is your money. However, if you are too exposed what can you do?\r\n\r\nWHAT TO DO TO FIX?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add more funds to your broker account.</li>\r\n 	<li>Reduce position sizes so that exposure based upon a mix of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lot trades are not greater than 3% of your broker account balance. (Or whatever your RISK TOLERANCE % is)</li>\r\n 	<li>Close positions to bring your RISK inside your tolerance level.</li>\r\n 	<li>Possibly if you understand how to do it, HEDGE your position as it stops RISK increasing but managing your way out of a hedged position can be difficult. It can take a long time as the best conditions should be directional with great momentum.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDO I EVER BREAK MY 3% CEILING?\r\n\r\nNot in my main USD major or my JPY broker accounts because that is where my position sizes are usually larger.\r\n\r\nI mentioned this earlier, I have my one exception and it’s NOT a major break from my principles but I acknowledge it is different approach, but it is managed.\r\n\r\nAs many of you are aware from my existing trades and limit orders my NZD cross rate exposure, mainly through the AUD/NZD is well beyond the 3% when it is all said and done as I have added a lot more RISK to my NZD cross positions through the EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and NZD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI operate all my NZD cross rate exposure through a separate broker account. My CONTINGENT LIABILITY is just over 5.5%. I have set my limit at 7%\r\n\r\nI control RISK through a combination of hedging and position sizing adjustments. My NZD is a long, long term CORE TRADE primarily on the AUD/NZD cross.\r\n\r\nThis has been a two-year trade so far and I see it operating for another two-years minimum. I wanted greater flexibility given my FUNDAMENTAL views and the period within I am proposing to work this trade.\r\n\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nI am very lucky, I can operate two large accounts (from my own values) and three smaller ones to manage trades through. The gap between my trading positions and the account balance may seem unrealistic at times especially for new traders to understand, however this is what RISK MANAGEMENT is all about.\r\n\r\nThere is never a threat about a margin call and three or four bad trades will not KILL the account, it hurts me, but that\'s trading.\r\n\r\nI am here for the long haul. Longevity in trading is about patience and being sidelined quite a bit if you are NOT happy with the conditions.\r\n\r\nI am not sure whether this helps, I hope it does not confuse.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nThis bizarre market continues to baffle me.\r\n\r\nLast week, I thought that a HAWKISH FED would produce USD strength across the board – we saw weakness.\r\n\r\nSpanish police dragging people away from polling booths followed by a possible declaration of independence I thought would be bad news from whatever perspective viewed for the EURO – it did nothing, hardly moved.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader, I find myself trading semi FUNDAMENTAL and adjusting my style, approach and thoughts constantly.\r\n\r\nI am still comfortable being long AUD/NZD. I still believe the NZD currency is over-valued and fair value is closer to 0.6500 (NZD/USD). This makes me comfortable being long the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD cross rates.\r\n\r\nIn addition, should the JPY correct lower, which is very possible, it should bring all JPY pairs lower with it eventually. This should be a RISK event therefore, the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD should move higher.\r\n\r\nThe EURO is now confusing me, following Draghi’s very clear comments earlier this month. Absolutely clear forward guidance, better than Yellen and Carney added together.\r\n\r\nThe AUD, despite comments from the RBA, I think could be on a corrective move higher before heading lower again. Whilst this helps my AUD/NZD trade it does nothing for my EUR/AUD or GBP/AUD trades, although the latter is hedged at a 200-pip loss. Also, the JPY has a place to play here as already mentioned.\r\n\r\nDo not get me started on the fecking pig of a currency the cable. I just do not know where Theresa May and the then the BOE are going to go with this one especially if the EU grant a two-year extension to the Article 50 deadline date under the guise of transitional time. What happens if the EU says no extension?  Whooooooooooosh…. It could be the outcome, who knows?\r\n\r\nThe CAD, I was clear on its move lower through 1.2000 (USD/CAD) but it is struggling with 1.2460. In addition, you weigh in the comments from Poloz and the well-known phrase I used to be decisive and now I am not quite sure and that sums up the markets view of the loonie.\r\n\r\nI think if NAFTA remains with Canada and the U.S. with a cross border trading alliance this will do the trick and put some lead in the pencil of the CAD$ and it should strengthen as a result. The economic data that couldn’t miss for months back to back has tailed off at late. So, with rate hikes from the BOC being data dependent this needs to improve.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10197\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017-771x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"771\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n2 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY and 2 x short LIMIT ORDERS with USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait as per my comments above in section 4.2\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 2 x EUR/NZD long trades plus a short NZD/JPY trade.\r\n\r\nI still hold a hedged long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips. I am not in any rush to work my way out of this position.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further 3 x GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am waiting for the market to reset before adding additional trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10199\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017-825x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017-900x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nAbsolutely nothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #151 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE EU TROJAN HORSE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10213-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:51:13', '2017-10-14 12:51:13', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10213-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10224, 1, '2017-10-14 08:21:07', '2017-10-14 13:21:07', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK:</span>\r\n\r\nOnly three pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING: <u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #255 DRIVE THRU\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE EU TROJAN HORSE', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'eu-trojan-horse', '', '', '2017-10-14 08:24:15', '2017-10-14 13:24:15', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10224', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(10225, 1, '2017-10-14 08:21:07', '2017-10-14 13:21:07', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly three pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Thankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING: <u>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #255 DRIVE THRU\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE EU TROJAN HORSE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10224-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-10-14 08:21:07', '2017-10-14 13:21:07', '', 10224, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10224-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10226, 1, '2017-10-14 08:22:51', '2017-10-14 13:22:51', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.\r\n\r\n</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly three pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING: <u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #255 DRIVE THRU\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE EU TROJAN HORSE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10224-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-10-14 08:22:51', '2017-10-14 13:22:51', '', 10224, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10224-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(10227, 1, '2017-10-14 08:24:15', '2017-10-14 13:24:15', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK:</span>\r\n\r\nOnly three pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING: <u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #255 DRIVE THRU\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE EU TROJAN HORSE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10224-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-10-14 08:24:15', '2017-10-14 13:24:15', '', 10224, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10224-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(10262, 1, '2017-10-21 06:06:03', '2017-10-21 11:06:03', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI began last week, carrying forward from the prior week some large negative cross rates losses. The charts prior to some poor US data were relatively constructive and I made the decision based upon my longer-term views to HEDGE four cross-rate trades. The decision to HEDGE was made primarily due to rising geopolitical tensions and headline news events that could just rip up in my face… NORTH KOREA, IRAN, CATALONIA and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nAt the beginning of the week, Monday and Tuesday, I was playing a waiting and watching game. Now HEDGED my losses were fixed and I set up what I call the “OUT” trade based on revised chart analysis. The market was slow and just trying to extract a few pips a day was difficult as we were range bound. I was\r\n\r\nTweeting and writing to my subscribers that for me at the current time it was all about patience. I had to let the markets consolidate.\r\n\r\nWednesday I was really pist off as I let a few pips drift by.\r\n\r\nThen overnight Wednesday/Thursday early morning it all kicked off. My PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were already positioned SHORT the NZD as this was one of my CORE POSITIONS for some time.\r\n\r\nThe coalition announcement was just what the doctor ordered. At one stage I had almost 30 LIVE trades to deal with and fresh trades triggered what felt like every two or three minutes as the Kiwi got crushed. At 2:30AM last Thursday I was up and at my screens. The following 4-5 hours reminded me why I enjoy trading so much. I took profits off the table, banked pips, moved stops to protect $$$, increased limits and removed some other trades that were just part of the forest stopping me from seeing the wood on the trees I wanted to follow. It was hectic, and, at times frantic whilst I gathered my thoughts and put my TRADING PLAN which was thought through from the night before into action.\r\n\r\nTwo of the HEDGES have been exited in profit by 132 additional pips. Of the remaining HEDGES, one is on the way to its exit and the other has yet to move considerably in my chosen “OUT” direction, but as my trading position is fixed; I can wait and focus elsewhere first.\r\n\r\nThe great news is that from my trading perspective the New Zealand government coalition is NZD negative and the trade has only just begun.\r\n\r\nSo, what I thought was going to be one of the most boring weeks of trading since I started was exciting and quite profitable.\r\n\r\nTo put the week in perspective. The prior week 160 net pips were added. Last week the PREMIUM SERVICE added an additional net pip total of +1,112 pips, making the total for 2017 +9,159 pips.\r\n\r\nOn June 25th, 2017, just after Breda and I had completed our trip to Australia and New Zealand, which followed our cross-country house move into Nova Scotia, the pip total stood at 2,113 pips.\r\n\r\nThe pip gathering since the start of July this year has been relentless, but at the same time there have been days of inactivity waiting for trades and being patient.\r\n\r\nI was going to place this next paragraph about trading with THE PREMIUM SERVICE at the end of the blog but it makes sense to include it here: -\r\n\r\nMy annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets have greater RISK attached my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.\r\n\r\nMy point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.\r\n\r\nSingle MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips\r\nAnticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)\r\n\r\nLess PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nAnnual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                                 = USD$9,000\r\n\r\nWorking on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n50% of my suggested trades\r\n50% of my entries on time\r\n50% of my exits on time\r\nYou could still generate a NET INCOME\r\nafter subscription                                            of USD$4,0000\r\n\r\nObviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.\r\n\r\nRISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong><u>: GOVERNMENT COALITION ANNOUNCEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n26 days following the New Zealand elections, Jacinda Ardern leader of the Labour Party became the country’s latest Prime Minister.\r\n\r\nThere was a split vote almost a month ago and the New Zealand First Party leader, Winston Peters in dramatic form announced that his populist party would throw its support in a coalition with Labour. Along with the “greens” the NZ First and Labour will be the coalition government.\r\n\r\nIt was pure theatre as, neither incumbent Prime Minister Bill English, nor Jacinda Adern knew which way Winston Peters was going move.\r\n\r\nThis result and the coalition is a total unknown and the markets would have preferred a Bill English National Party led coalition.\r\n\r\nThis move should NOT be underestimated, as it is mammoth. It was a decision for change involving Housing, Immigration, reducing NZ poverty and Foreign Investment in property. These are structural economic changes.\r\n\r\nOn the news, the NZD/USD was crushed lower by 160 pips, the EUR/NZD and GBP/USD moved up by over 400 pips each and the antipodean cross AUD/NZD moved up by over 270 pips.\r\n\r\nThese moves were stellar and over the coming sessions I see these moves consolidating. There should be plenty of pips available into the end of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPi, CARNEY, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; BREXIT.</u>\r\n\r\nIt was an action-packed week for sterling.\r\n\r\nThe week started well with CPI which was in line with expectations at 3% this is basically what is fueling the BOE accountants to raise rates as it is a full 1% above the BOE target.\r\n\r\nCarney presented in front of a House of Commons committee on inflation and was dovish but saying that interest rates would probably rise, but it would be more than likely reading between the “yada yada” a one and done scenario. He saw inflation stopping around 3% and cable sold off as a result. There was nothing new in what Carney said so the market reaction was as usual weird.\r\n\r\nAverage earnings came in a 2.2%. The difference between earnings and inflation at 0.8% is hardly the climate in which to raise rates in my opinion. Nevertheless, it looks a done deal with an 80% market expectation that UK interest rates will move higher in November.\r\n\r\nJust to spice things up Retail Sales were a miss. In fact, it was a bloody awful number -0.8% versus an expectation of -0.1%. Cable sold off and then in usual cable style during the day recovered most of its losses.\r\n\r\nIn the middle of all the economic data the BREXIT roadshow stumbled along. Theresa May and David Davis met with Michel Barnier and although a cover up the cracks press release from both parties said that it was a beneficial meeting, the two-year Article 50 transition period extension that Prime Minister May requested did not appear as a resolution from the meeting, so for now at least the March 2019 deadline remains, unreal as it is!\r\n\r\nSo, the $64,000 question is how do you trade cable?\r\n\r\nA few months ago, I think it was HSBC who had a call that matched my own thoughts which was, GBP/USD 1.2000 and EUR/GBP to parity. They have since changed their minds on this call on the basis that originally, they believed that the economy would drive cable and not the BOE. Of late, the BOE is the driver of cable.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am still not so sure that the 1.2000 and parity calls are still the correct ones.\r\n\r\nTo raise rates as I have repeatedly stated during so much uncertainty hanging over the UK never mind the 3% inflation rate is just crazy in my opinion. The fact that earnings are still lagging by 0.8% must weigh in somewhere one would think.\r\n\r\nIt is now widely reported that the BREXIT deal cannot be struck by March 2019 and a “NO DEAL” scenario is becoming more and more likely. I have said from the get go 2 years to exit was an unreal time-scale and I am now vindicated with my prediction and thought process from months ago.\r\n\r\nBack to FX…\r\n\r\nI still do NOT know what way to trade cable. The crosses are now mixed following the New Zealand news. GBP/NZD is pressing higher and the AUD/NZD is also pressing higher which, places pressure on the GBP/AUD to move lower.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/GBP is moving higher back towards 0.9000 once again, however, it appears that it is cool and trendy to short this pair. I do NOT agree with the sheep mentality here and think that this may be the pair to focus on rather than GBP/USD.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThursday last week was the deadline for Catalonia to declare independence. The Catalan president Carles Puidegemont said he wanted to talk dirty with Rahoy, but the Prime minister basically said bollocks and triggered the Spanish government’s Article 155, which takes power away from Catalonia.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nHere’s a taster for what’s ahead. The Catalan government allegedly instructed supporters of independence to go to SABADELL and LA CAIXA banks and take as much cash as they could out of the ATM machines. Trying to create a “RUN” on the banks as these two have announced moving their headquarters out of Catalonia because of the uncertainty.\r\n\r\nOn all the Catalonian shenanigans the EUR/USD fell a few pips and then regained almost all of them back again. This pair is Teflon coated.\r\n\r\nHow the hell do you trade this pair?\r\n\r\nThe ECB eagerly awaited press conference is due this coming Thursday maybe all will be revealed then from the words of wisdom from Mario Draghi. Although, as I wrote last week the ECB has given out detailed forward guidance already on their intentions, there are only a few blanks left to fill. Am I going crazy?\r\n\r\nThe threat of nuclear war from the little rocket man does bugger all to move markets, so the potential of the Spanish economy going down the tubes is like a pimple on the back of an elephant.\r\n\r\nThe Spanish / Catalonia crisis will rumble on for weeks….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> RETAIL SALES &amp; CPi.</u>\r\n\r\nShocking numbers. Retail Sales came through at -0.3%, the market was expecting 0.5%. CPi missed 0.2% monthly versus 0.3% and year to date 1.6% versus 1.7%.\r\n\r\nThis week on Wednesday, the BOC meets. I am still thinking that the BOC will raise before the year end but it looks very doubtful that a rate increase will be announced this week.\r\n\r\nExpect the word “TRANSITORY” to be used a few times!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\n\r\nGARY COHN\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\n\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\n\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP’S opinions in my opinion, are usually based on the “Last Man Standing” approach. The last person he speaks with is usually just wonderful, much better than the person a day earlier who was at that time the best one so far.\r\n\r\nThis has taken up a lot of TV time and newspaper column inches and social media chatter. I can speculate here until the cows come home and even with a deadline in place which is just around the corner, I could still be speculating as my wife and I sit down to our Christmas dinner.\r\n\r\nI take the view that the FED chairperson can influence the markets but he or she does rule over the institution single handedly. There are civil servant types in place to stop change. The FED chair only has limited scope in my opinion. The institution is very long standing and formats and structures are in place to stop people getting carried away with power going to their head.\r\n\r\nTRUMP’s interview will be along the lines of keep interest rates low and say that you want to make America great again and you have the job. That is how simplistic I think TRUMP believes the job to be…. frightening, very scary stuff.\r\n\r\nWe are being told that JEROME POWELL and JOHN TAYLOR are the two front-runners and that a decision will be announced within the next 10 days prior to TRUMP jetting with Melania to Asia on a goodwill visit to calm tensions in the area…yeah right tensions reduced my arse!\r\n\r\nWhat I can tell you in this blog is that the name of Janet Yellen’s replacement appears to have a greater impact on the USD (DXY) than the threat of a nuclear warhead from North Korea…. go figure that one out!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10237\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017-1024x713.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"713\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10238\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017-1024x839.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"839\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10250\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10251\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10249\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10252\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10253\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10254\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10255\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nOnly two pieces of upcoming economic data interests me this week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> BOC RATE STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE</u>.\r\n\r\nWednesday should be a very interesting day for the CAD currency.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC has been true to his word and maintained credibility with the markets by doing what he said he was going to do.\r\n\r\nI expected a lot of “Transitory” to be used during the Press Conference. I would be astonished if he raised rates at the moment, however, I would be looking very closely to hear his views on a possible hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nScotiaBank still believe that a hike is on the cards before the end of 2017. If their predictions are as good as the service in the local branches I would take this analysis with a pinch of salt!! Being fair, they are not too far away on their FX analysis, but there is always a first time to be well off!!\r\n\r\nI am currently SHORT the USD/CAD. Yes, I am that trader on the COT report!!\r\n\r\nI still expect Poloz to remain with hawkish undertones to his statement. He cannot, turn around after two rate increases and turn dovish. Mark Carney would without a second thought, but Poloz is cut with a different cloth.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB RATE DECISION &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nMario Draghi gets to have his day on announcing the ECB future monetary policy to take the markets through 2018 and beyond.\r\n\r\nWill Draghi and the ECB pull it off? The want to start back on the road to normalization very slowly without the markets pricing everything ion from day one and destroying the EURO.\r\n\r\nGiven his past failures of being able to deliver the content and have the market reaction that he wants has always been the challenge facing the ECB President.\r\n\r\nIn the past, he has not been helped by “bubble and squeak” aka Wolfgang Schauble (ex. German Fin Minister) and Jens Weidman (Head of the Bundesbank), they would continually contradict and dispute Draghi’s path forward with ECB policy. (it’s all part of the EUROPEAN <strong><u>UNION</u> </strong>approach to harmony). If they were not enough the Austrian Central Bank Governor, who, is on the ECB council, Ewald Nowotny, would also contradict and screw up the messages from Draghi!\r\n\r\nSo, to say Mario Draghi has an uphill task would be an understatement.\r\n\r\nHowever, all is NOT lost.\r\n\r\nDraghi has been cute this time around.\r\n\r\nAhead of this week’s press conference the ECB has been giving over the past two weeks what I am viewing as forward guidance.\r\n\r\nInterest rates will remain accommodative long after the ECB bond buying (asset purchase) program has ended. Low rates will be policy for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nThe Quantitative Easing (QE) program is being “Tapered”. Currently at €60 Billion is expected to reduce and the only answers that the market seeks confirmation on are to the following questions; new amount and for how long?\r\n\r\nThe problem that Draghi has is that beyond the top layer it goes much, much deeper.\r\n\r\n28 countries in the EU (presently), with 17 of these countries inside the EUROZONE single currency.\r\n\r\nYou simply cannot have a monetary policy for 17 countries operating centrally. There is no one size fits all.\r\n\r\nTo even get close, structural reforms are required country by country to be more aligned. This is NEVER going to happen. How in the name of sanity can you compare the economies of Germany with those of Malta, Greece or Slovenia? It is just NOT possible.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Therefore, aggressive policies will just NOT work. Maybe the ECB blueprint of accommodative policies to infinity is something that the markets will have to get their heads around.</li>\r\n 	<li>There is NO real inflation.</li>\r\n 	<li>Unemployment is high, especially youth unemployment in too many countries.</li>\r\n 	<li>Growth may be rising but it is patchy in some areas.</li>\r\n 	<li>So much of the positivity of late has been created with a fluctuating OIL price and this is making data better than it is.</li>\r\n 	<li>Negative rates may disappear. However, using the “old school” definition of interest rate normalization, I think is a dream for the ECB and there is no reason to increase interest rates unless there are signs of inflation, which there are NOT.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis Thursday, is a big moment for Draghi and the ECB, his words will be dissected, put back together again and then re-dissected. I was hoping that in conjunction with the FED it would be easier to see the path to trade the EUR/USD. I am not sure. My initial thoughts were to go long EUR/USD, then it changed to short EUR/USD given the ECB forward guidance and the support in the DXY to buy USD.\r\n\r\nI closed my EUR/USD last Friday for a tiny profit. I am playing a waiting game now until after the ECB. I am sticking to cross rate pairs in the interim.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would NOT be sitting in front of a bank of computer screens typing away…\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying the USD leads. This week however, we have two Central Banks reporting.\r\n\r\nThe BOC and ECB for differing reasons both have the markets attention. Both are involved in potentially big moves for the FX market.\r\n\r\nAdd to this the fact that the market is twitchy over the announcement of the new FED Chairperson and the overhang of geopolitical tensions in NORTH KOREA and IRAN. Plus, we also have BREXIT and CATALONIA to work with.\r\n\r\nTHE NZD is close to being toast. This is covered in much more detail later in this blog for my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nBasically, I would use cross rates until we see how the USD is going to react to the news when it finally comes through.\r\n\r\nIt is so tempting to trade EUR/USD and USD/JPY but in real terms the risks are too apparent at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY is no longer correlated to the Nikkei – huge RISK when it corrects or the Nikkei corrects either way it is impossible to gauge timelines and what happens first.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is very just range bound itself because the markets are indecisive. It is winding up for a big move and I do not think that this will happen until the ECB announcement later this week. Bear in mind, a threat of Nuclear War, senior citizens being manhandled out of polling booth, Catalan Independence and BREXIT failings, have all failed to move this pair.  The change in FED chairperson has had more of an effect but even looking deeper into this, it’s been reasonably muted when all said and done.\r\n\r\nI got suckered into EUR/USD trades last week, it took me a couple of days to exit with a small profit. I just DO NOT see the reason to go mad into anything USD related, maybe the NZD/USD exempted until the dust settles on several issues. There are plenty of other opportunities.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL:             +1,112 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +1,753 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +9,159 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week was my best trading week in 2017. Over a month’s pip gain objective was added inside of 48 hours.\r\n\r\nLast week: Net new pips added = 1,112 pips.\r\n\r\nMonth of October to date = 1,753 pips.\r\n\r\nYear To date pip total = 9,159 pips.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou make your own luck but I feel vindicated in my decision to remain CORE SHORT the NZD and to remain long AUD/NZD for the past two years or so. The AUD/NZD has been a very profitable pair for trading. Its moves are very easy to follow… most of the time!\r\n\r\nThe NZD move is not over (see below).\r\n\r\nWhat has pleased me the most, was to stick with the NZD crosses and take the losses a week last Friday. Whilst hedging has its risks, you can park the trade and wait if needs be. I have my PLAN for exiting and I work the plan moving forward. Having a PLAN when reading FX is essential. Without this you are running around like a headless chicken.\r\n\r\nI banked $$$ across JPY trades and other USD trades but as mentioned already in the blog, these for me at the current time have a RISK attached that can be avoided.\r\n\r\nMoving forward still has challenges attached. In my opinion it’s all about being cute with trade selection.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMoving forward the big question is what happens with the USD.\r\n\r\nDoes it move up with USD strength or does it resume its move lower after this small retrace higher? If I knew the answer to this life would be just a blast!\r\n\r\nLooking longer term. The NZD economy is in for a complete makeover given the Labour/NZ first alliance. I have often said that the NZD/USD was over-priced and fair value was more like 0.6500. I have also stated on numerous occasions that fair value based on NAB papers for the AUD/NZD is much closer to 1.2000.\r\n\r\nMy immediate focus is the NZD currency.\r\n\r\n<u>SCENARIO 1:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD moves higher with strength.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD hits c.1.1200\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD hits c.1.2000\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD moves back to c.0.7500\r\n\r\nThe NZD would get demolished to 0.6500 maybe even lower.\r\n\r\nThe NZD crosses would be on fire moving higher; AUD/NZD, EUR/USD and GBP/NZD\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>SCENARIO 2:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD moves lower with weakness. It continues the trend lower that it has been in since the TRUMP inauguration.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD hits c.1.2500\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD hits c.1.3600\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD moves up to c.0.8200\r\n\r\nThis is also great for the NZD crosses and the NZD/USD may only see a life of maybe 100 pips, if that.\r\n\r\nObviously, nothing moves in straight lines but its all good news as far as I can see, as long we have a directional trade. The SENTIMENT will rule the direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOn the sentiment chart below you will see that it’s almost a complete reversal in sentiment from last week but we are more aligned. USD strength is the key feature this week. Hold onto your hats though, TRUMP is bound to cause friction over the Janet Yellen replacement and God knows whatever he touches next. The sentiment chart could change very quickly.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10248\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-22102017-784x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"784\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies, although I have reduced my CAD exposure quite a bit with a BOC Rate announcement and Press Conference this week. I have NOT ruled out a HEDGE or two with the CAD as I am a believer in higher CAD interest rates.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait until after the BOC this Wednesday to decide what further actions are required. I may HEDGE or I may cut the trades and take a loss.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 1 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 1 x EUR/NZD long trade (HEDGED) plus a EUR/NZD “OUT” trade for the hedge.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 3 x AUD/NZD trades and GBP/NZD and NZD/JPY limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board early this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-TRADES-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10240\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-TRADES-22102017-954x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"954\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10239\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-22102017-1024x954.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"954\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #152 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n22nd October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WILL THE ECB PULL IT OFF?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'will-ecb-pull-off', '', '', '2018-01-18 13:59:59', '2018-01-18 18:59:59', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10262', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
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(10263, 1, '2017-10-21 06:06:03', '2017-10-21 11:06:03', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI began last week, carrying forward from the prior week some large negative cross rates losses. The charts prior to some poor US data were relatively constructive and I made the decision based upon my longer-term views to HEDGE four cross-rate trades. The decision to HEDGE was made primarily due to rising geopolitical tensions and headline news events that could just rip up in my face… NORTH KOREA, IRAN, CATALONIA and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nAt the beginning of the week, Monday and Tuesday, I was playing a waiting and watching game. Now HEDGED my losses were fixed and I set up what I call the “OUT” trade based on revised chart analysis. The market was slow and just trying to extract a few pips a day was difficult as we were range bound. I was\r\n\r\nTweeting and writing to my subscribers that for me at the current time it was all about patience. I had to let the markets consolidate.\r\n\r\nWednesday I was really pist off as I let a few pips drift by.\r\n\r\nThen overnight Wednesday/Thursday early morning it all kicked off. My PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were already positioned SHORT the NZD as this was one of my CORE POSITIONS for some time.\r\n\r\nThe coalition announcement was just what the doctor ordered. At one stage I had almost 30 LIVE trades to deal with and fresh trades triggered what felt like every two or three minutes as the Kiwi got crushed. At 2:30AM last Thursday I was up and at my screens. The following 4-5 hours reminded me why I enjoy trading so much. I took profits off the table, banked pips, moved stops to protect $$$, increased limits and removed some other trades that were just part of the forest stopping me from seeing the wood on the trees I wanted to follow. It was hectic, and, at times frantic whilst I gathered my thoughts and put my TRADING PLAN which was thought through from the night before into action.\r\n\r\nTwo of the HEDGES have been exited in profit by 132 additional pips. Of the remaining HEDGES, one is on the way to its exit and the other has yet to move considerably in my chosen “OUT” direction, but as my trading position is fixed; I can wait and focus elsewhere first.\r\n\r\nThe great news is that from my trading perspective the New Zealand government coalition is NZD negative and the trade has only just begun.\r\n\r\nSo, what I thought was going to be one of the most boring weeks of trading since I started was exciting and quite profitable.\r\n\r\nTo put the week in perspective. The prior week 160 net pips were added. Last week the PREMIUM SERVICE added an additional net pip total of +1,112 pips, making the total for 2017 +9,159 pips.\r\n\r\nOn June 25th, 2017, just after Breda and I had completed our trip to Australia and New Zealand, which followed our cross-country house move into Nova Scotia, the pip total stood at 2,113 pips.\r\n\r\nThe pip gathering since the start of July this year has been relentless, but at the same time there have been days of inactivity waiting for trades and being patient.\r\n\r\nI was going to place this next paragraph about trading with THE PREMIUM SERVICE at the end of the blog but it makes sense to include it here: -\r\n\r\nMy annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets have greater RISK attached my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.\r\n\r\nMy point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.\r\n\r\nSingle MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips\r\nAnticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)\r\n\r\nLess PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nAnnual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                                 = USD$9,000\r\n\r\nWorking on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n50% of my suggested trades\r\n50% of my entries on time\r\n50% of my exits on time\r\nYou could still generate a NET INCOME\r\nafter subscription                                            of USD$4,0000\r\n\r\nObviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.\r\n\r\nRISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong><u>: GOVERNMENT COALITION ANNOUNCEMENT.\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n26 days following the New Zealand elections, Jacinda Ardern leader of the Labour Party became the country’s latest Prime Minister.\r\n\r\nThere was a split vote almost a month ago and the New Zealand First Party leader, Winston Peters in dramatic form announced that his populist party would throw its support in a coalition with Labour. Along with the “greens” the NZ First and Labour will be the coalition government.\r\n\r\nIt was pure theatre as, neither incumbent Prime Minister Bill English, nor Jacinda Adern knew which way Winston Peters was going move.\r\n\r\nThis result and the coalition is a total unknown and the markets would have preferred a Bill English National Party led coalition.\r\n\r\nThis move should NOT be underestimated, as it is mammoth. It was a decision for change involving Housing, Immigration, reducing NZ poverty and Foreign Investment in property. These are structural economic changes.\r\n\r\nOn the news, the NZD/USD was crushed lower by 160 pips, the EUR/NZD and GBP/USD moved up by over 400 pips each and the antipodean cross AUD/NZD moved up by over 270 pips.\r\n\r\nThese moves were stellar and over the coming sessions I see these moves consolidating. There should be plenty of pips available into the end of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPi, CARNEY, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; BREXIT.</u>\r\n\r\nIt was an action-packed week for sterling.\r\n\r\nThe week started well with CPI which was in line with expectations at 3% this is basically what is fueling the BOE accountants to raise rates as it is a full 1% above the BOE target.\r\n\r\nCarney presented in front of a House of Commons committee on inflation and was dovish but saying that interest rates would probably rise, but it would be more than likely reading between the “yada yada” a one and done scenario. He saw inflation stopping around 3% and cable sold off as a result. There was nothing new in what Carney said so the market reaction was as usual weird.\r\n\r\nAverage earnings came in a 2.2%. The difference between earnings and inflation at 0.8% is hardly the climate in which to raise rates in my opinion. Nevertheless, it looks a done deal with an 80% market expectation that UK interest rates will move higher in November.\r\n\r\nJust to spice things up Retail Sales were a miss. In fact, it was a bloody awful number -0.8% versus an expectation of -0.1%. Cable sold off and then in usual cable style during the day recovered most of its losses.\r\n\r\nIn the middle of all the economic data the BREXIT roadshow stumbled along. Theresa May and David Davis met with Michel Barnier and although a cover up the cracks press release from both parties said that it was a beneficial meeting, the two-year Article 50 transition period extension that Prime Minister May requested did not appear as a resolution from the meeting, so for now at least the March 2019 deadline remains, unreal as it is!\r\n\r\nSo, the $64,000 question is how do you trade cable?\r\n\r\nA few months ago, I think it was HSBC who had a call that matched my own thoughts which was, GBP/USD 1.2000 and EUR/GBP to parity. They have since changed their minds on this call on the basis that originally, they believed that the economy would drive cable and not the BOE. Of late, the BOE is the driver of cable.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am still not so sure that the 1.2000 and parity calls are still the correct ones.\r\n\r\nTo raise rates as I have repeatedly stated during so much uncertainty hanging over the UK never mind the 3% inflation rate is just crazy in my opinion. The fact that earnings are still lagging by 0.8% must weigh in somewhere one would think.\r\n\r\nIt is now widely reported that the BREXIT deal cannot be struck by March 2019 and a “NO DEAL” scenario is becoming more and more likely. I have said from the get go 2 years to exit was an unreal time-scale and I am now vindicated with my prediction and thought process from months ago.\r\n\r\nBack to FX…\r\n\r\nI still do NOT know what way to trade cable. The crosses are now mixed following the New Zealand news. GBP/NZD is pressing higher and the AUD/NZD is also pressing higher which, places pressure on the GBP/AUD to move lower.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/GBP is moving higher back towards 0.9000 once again, however, it appears that it is cool and trendy to short this pair. I do NOT agree with the sheep mentality here and think that this may be the pair to focus on rather than GBP/USD.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThursday last week was the deadline for Catalonia to declare independence. The Catalan president Carles Puidegemont said he wanted to talk dirty with Rahoy, but the Prime minister basically said bollocks and triggered the Spanish government’s Article 155, which takes power away from Catalonia.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nHere’s a taster for what’s ahead. The Catalan government allegedly instructed supporters of independence to go to SABADELL and LA CAIXA banks and take as much cash as they could out of the ATM machines. Trying to create a “RUN” on the banks as these two have announced moving their headquarters out of Catalonia because of the uncertainty.\r\n\r\nOn all the Catalonian shenanigans the EUR/USD fell a few pips and then regained almost all of them back again. This pair is Teflon coated.\r\n\r\nHow the hell do you trade this pair?\r\n\r\nThe ECB eagerly awaited press conference is due this coming Thursday maybe all will be revealed then from the words of wisdom from Mario Draghi. Although, as I wrote last week the ECB has given out detailed forward guidance already on their intentions, there are only a few blanks left to fill. Am I going crazy?\r\n\r\nThe threat of nuclear war from the little rocket man does bugger all to move markets, so the potential of the Spanish economy going down the tubes is like a pimple on the back of an elephant.\r\n\r\nThe Spanish / Catalonia crisis will rumble on for weeks….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> RETAIL SALES &amp; CPi.</u>\r\n\r\nShocking numbers. Retail Sales came through at -0.3%, the market was expecting 0.5%. CPi missed 0.2% monthly versus 0.3% and year to date 1.6% versus 1.7%.\r\n\r\nThis week on Wednesday, the BOC meets. I am still thinking that the BOC will raise before the year end but it looks very doubtful that a rate increase will be announced this week.\r\n\r\nExpect the word “TRANSITORY” to be used a few times!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\n\r\nGARY COHN\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\n\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\n\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP’S opinions in my opinion, are usually based on the “Last Man Standing” approach. The last person he speaks with is usually just wonderful, much better than the person a day earlier who was at that time the best one so far.\r\n\r\nThis has taken up a lot of TV time and newspaper column inches and social media chatter. I can speculate here until the cows come home and even with a deadline in place which is just around the corner, I could still be speculating as my wife and I sit down to our Christmas dinner.\r\n\r\nI take the view that the FED chairperson can influence the markets but he or she does rule over the institution single handedly. There are civil servant types in place to stop change. The FED chair only has limited scope in my opinion. The institution is very long standing and formats and structures are in place to stop people getting carried away with power going to their head.\r\n\r\nTRUMP’s interview will be along the lines of keep interest rates low and say that you want to make America great again and you have the job. That is how simplistic I think TRUMP believes the job to be…. frightening, very scary stuff.\r\n\r\nWe are being told that JEROME POWELL and JOHN TAYLOR are the two front-runners and that a decision will be announced within the next 10 days prior to TRUMP jetting with Melania to Asia on a goodwill visit to calm tensions in the area…yeah right tensions reduced my arse!\r\n\r\nWhat I can tell you in this blog is that the name of Janet Yellen’s replacement appears to have a greater impact on the USD (DXY) than the threat of a nuclear warhead from North Korea…. go figure that one out!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10237\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017-1024x713.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"713\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10238\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017-1024x839.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"839\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10250\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10251\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10249\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10252\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10253\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10254\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10255\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Only two pieces of upcoming economic data interests me this week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> BOC RATE STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE</u>.\r\n\r\nWednesday should be a very interesting day for the CAD currency.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC has been true to his word and maintained credibility with the markets by doing what he said he was going to do.\r\n\r\nI expected a lot of “Transitory” to be used during the Press Conference. I would be astonished if he raised rates at the moment, however, I would be looking very closely to hear his views on a possible hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nScotiaBank still believe that a hike is on the cards before the end of 2017. If their predictions are as good as the service in the local branches I would take this analysis with a pinch of salt!! Being fair, they are not too far away on their FX analysis, but there is always a first time to be well off!!\r\n\r\nI am currently SHORT the USD/CAD. Yes, I am that trader on the COT report!!\r\n\r\nI still expect Poloz to remain with hawkish undertones to his statement. He cannot, turn around after two rate increases and turn dovish. Mark Carney would without a second thought, but Poloz is cut with a different cloth.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB RATE DECISION &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nMario Draghi gets to have his day on announcing the ECB future monetary policy to take the markets through 2018 and beyond.\r\n\r\nWill Draghi and the ECB pull it off? The want to start back on the road to normalization very slowly without the markets pricing everything ion from day one and destroying the EURO.\r\n\r\nGiven his past failures of being able to deliver the content and have the market reaction that he wants has always been the challenge facing the ECB President.\r\n\r\nIn the past, he has not been helped by “bubble and squeak” aka Wolfgang Schauble (ex. German Fin Minister) and Jens Weidman (Head of the Bundesbank), they would continually contradict and dispute Draghi’s path forward with ECB policy. (it’s all part of the EUROPEAN <strong><u>UNION</u> </strong>approach to harmony). If they were not enough the Austrian Central Bank Governor, who, is on the ECB council, Ewald Nowotny, would also contradict and screw up the messages from Draghi!\r\n\r\nSo, to say Mario Draghi has an uphill task would be an understatement.\r\n\r\nHowever, all is NOT lost.\r\n\r\nDraghi has been cute this time around.\r\n\r\nAhead of this week’s press conference the ECB has been giving over the past two weeks what I am viewing as forward guidance.\r\n\r\nInterest rates will remain accommodative long after the ECB bond buying (asset purchase) program has ended. Low rates will be policy for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nThe Quantitative Easing (QE) program is being “Tapered”. Currently at €60 Billion is expected to reduce and the only answers that the market seeks confirmation on are to the following questions; new amount and for how long?\r\n\r\nThe problem that Draghi has is that beyond the top layer it goes much, much deeper.\r\n\r\n28 countries in the EU (presently), with 17 of these countries inside the EUROZONE single currency.\r\n\r\nYou simply cannot have a monetary policy for 17 countries operating centrally. There is no one size fits all.\r\n\r\nTo even get close, structural reforms are required country by country to be more aligned. This is NEVER going to happen. How in the name of sanity can you compare the economies of Germany with those of Malta, Greece or Slovenia? It is just NOT possible.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Therefore, aggressive policies will just NOT work. Maybe the ECB blueprint of accommodative policies to infinity is something that the markets will have to get their heads around.</li>\r\n 	<li>There is NO real inflation.</li>\r\n 	<li>Unemployment is high, especially youth unemployment in too many countries.</li>\r\n 	<li>Growth may be rising but it is patchy in some areas.</li>\r\n 	<li>So much of the positivity of late has been created with a fluctuating OIL price and this is making data better than it is.</li>\r\n 	<li>Negative rates may disappear. However, using the “old school” definition of interest rate normalization, I think is a dream for the ECB and there is no reason to increase interest rates unless there are signs of inflation, which there are NOT.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis Thursday, is a big moment for Draghi and the ECB, his words will be dissected, put back together again and then re-dissected. I was hoping that in conjunction with the FED it would be easier to see the path to trade the EUR/USD. I am not sure. My initial thoughts were to go long EUR/USD, then it changed to short EUR/USD given the ECB forward guidance and the support in the DXY to buy USD.\r\n\r\nI closed my EUR/USD last Friday for a tiny profit. I am playing a waiting game now until after the ECB. I am sticking to cross rate pairs in the interim.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would NOT be sitting in front of a bank of computer screens typing away…\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying the USD leads. This week however, we have two Central Banks reporting.\r\n\r\nThe BOC and ECB for differing reasons both have the markets attention. Both are involved in potentially big moves for the FX market.\r\n\r\nAdd to this the fact that the market is twitchy over the announcement of the new FED Chairperson and the overhang of geopolitical tensions in NORTH KOREA and IRAN. Plus, we also have BREXIT and CATALONIA to work with.\r\n\r\nTHE NZD is close to being toast. This is covered in much more detail later in this blog for my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nBasically, I would use cross rates until we see how the USD is going to react to the news when it finally comes through.\r\n\r\nIt is so tempting to trade EUR/USD and USD/JPY but in real terms the risks are too apparent at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY is no longer correlated to the Nikkei – huge RISK when it corrects or the Nikkei corrects either way it is impossible to gauge timelines and what happens first.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is very just range bound itself because the markets are indecisive. It is winding up for a big move and I do not think that this will happen until the ECB announcement later this week. Bear in mind, a threat of Nuclear War, senior citizens being manhandled out of polling booth, Catalan Independence and BREXIT failings, have all failed to move this pair.  The change in FED chairperson has had more of an effect but even looking deeper into this, it’s been reasonably muted when all said and done.\r\n\r\nI got suckered into EUR/USD trades last week, it took me a couple of days to exit with a small profit. I just DO NOT see the reason to go mad into anything USD related, maybe the NZD/USD exempted until the dust settles on several issues. There are plenty of other opportunities.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL:             +1,112 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +1,753 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +9,159 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week was my best trading week in 2017. Over a month’s pip gain objective was added inside of 48 hours.\r\n\r\nLast week: Net new pips added = 1,112 pips.\r\n\r\nMonth of October to date = 1,753 pips.\r\n\r\nYear To date pip total = 9,159 pips.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou make your own luck but I feel vindicated in my decision to remain CORE SHORT the NZD and to remain long AUD/NZD for the past two years or so. The AUD/NZD has been a very profitable pair for trading. Its moves are very easy to follow… most of the time!\r\n\r\nThe NZD move is not over (see below).\r\n\r\nWhat has pleased me the most, was to stick with the NZD crosses and take the losses a week last Friday. Whilst hedging has its risks, you can park the trade and wait if needs be. I have my PLAN for exiting and I work the plan moving forward. Having a PLAN when reading FX is essential. Without this you are running around like a headless chicken.\r\n\r\nI banked $$$ across JPY trades and other USD trades but as mentioned already in the blog, these for me at the current time have a RISK attached that can be avoided.\r\n\r\nMoving forward still has challenges attached. In my opinion it’s all about being cute with trade selection.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nMoving forward the big question is what happens with the USD.\r\n\r\nDoes it move up with USD strength or does it resume its move lower after this small retrace higher? If I knew the answer to this life would be just a blast!\r\n\r\nLooking longer term. The NZD economy is in for a complete makeover given the Labour/NZ first alliance. I have often said that the NZD/USD was over-priced and fair value was more like 0.6500. I have also stated on numerous occasions that fair value based on NAB papers for the AUD/NZD is much closer to 1.2000.\r\n\r\nMy immediate focus is the NZD currency.\r\n\r\n<u>SCENARIO 1:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD moves higher with strength.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD hits c.1.1200\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD hits c.1.2000\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD moves back to c.0.7500\r\n\r\nThe NZD would get demolished to 0.6500 maybe even lower.\r\n\r\nThe NZD crosses would be on fire moving higher; AUD/NZD, EUR/USD and GBP/NZD\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>SCENARIO 2:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD moves lower with weakness. It continues the trend lower that it has been in since the TRUMP inauguration.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD hits c.1.2500\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD hits c.1.3600\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD moves up to c.0.8200\r\n\r\nThis is also great for the NZD crosses and the NZD/USD may only see a life of maybe 100 pips, if that.\r\n\r\nObviously, nothing moves in straight lines but its all good news as far as I can see, as long we have a directional trade. The SENTIMENT will rule the direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOn the sentiment chart below you will see that it’s almost a complete reversal in sentiment from last week but we are more aligned. USD strength is the key feature this week. Hold onto your hats though, TRUMP is bound to cause friction over the Janet Yellen replacement and God knows whatever he touches next. The sentiment chart could change very quickly.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10248\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-22102017-784x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"784\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies, although I have reduced my CAD exposure quite a bit with a BOC Rate announcement and Press Conference this week. I have NOT ruled out a HEDGE or two with the CAD as I am a believer in higher CAD interest rates.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait until after the BOC this Wednesday to decide what further actions are required. I may HEDGE or I may cut the trades and take a loss.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 1 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 1 x EUR/NZD long trade (HEDGED) plus a EUR/NZD “OUT” trade for the hedge.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 3 x AUD/NZD trades and GBP/NZD and NZD/JPY limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board early this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-TRADES-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10240\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-TRADES-22102017-954x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"954\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10239\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-22102017-1024x954.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"954\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #152 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n22nd October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WILL THE ECB PULL IT OFF?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10262-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-10-21 06:06:03', '2017-10-21 11:06:03', '', 10262, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10262-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10264, 1, '2017-10-21 07:36:09', '2017-10-21 12:36:09', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI began last week, carrying forward from the prior week some large negative cross rates losses. The charts prior to some poor US data were relatively constructive and I made the decision based upon my longer-term views to HEDGE four cross-rate trades. The decision to HEDGE was made primarily due to rising geopolitical tensions and headline news events that could just rip up in my face… NORTH KOREA, IRAN, CATALONIA and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nAt the beginning of the week, Monday and Tuesday, I was playing a waiting and watching game. Now HEDGED my losses were fixed and I set up what I call the “OUT” trade based on revised chart analysis. The market was slow and just trying to extract a few pips a day was difficult as we were range bound. I was Tweeting and writing to my subscribers that for me at the current time it was all about patience. I had to let the markets consolidate.\r\n\r\nWednesday I was really pist off as I let a few pips drift by.\r\n\r\nThen overnight Wednesday/Thursday early morning it all kicked off. My PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were already positioned SHORT the NZD as this was one of my CORE POSITIONS for some time.\r\n\r\nThe coalition announcement was just what the doctor ordered. At one stage I had almost 30 LIVE trades to deal with and fresh trades triggered what felt like every two or three minutes as the Kiwi got crushed. At 2:30AM last Thursday I was up and at my screens. The following 4-5 hours reminded me why I enjoy trading so much. I took profits off the table, banked pips, moved stops to protect $$$, increased limits and removed some other trades that were just part of the forest stopping me from seeing the wood on the trees I wanted to follow. It was hectic, and, at times frantic whilst I gathered my thoughts and put my TRADING PLAN which was thought through from the night before into action.\r\n\r\nTwo of the HEDGES have been exited in profit by 132 additional pips. Of the remaining HEDGES, one is on the way to its exit and the other has yet to move considerably in my chosen “OUT” direction, but as my trading position is fixed; I can wait and focus elsewhere first.\r\n\r\nThe great news is that from my trading perspective the New Zealand government coalition is NZD negative and the trade has only just begun.\r\n\r\nSo, what I thought was going to be one of the most boring weeks of trading since I started was exciting and quite profitable.\r\n\r\nTo put the week in perspective. The prior week 160 net pips were added. Last week the PREMIUM SERVICE added an additional net pip total of +1,112 pips, making the total for 2017 +9,159 pips.\r\n\r\nOn June 25th, 2017, just after Breda and I had completed our trip to Australia and New Zealand, which followed our cross-country house move into Nova Scotia, the pip total stood at 2,113 pips.\r\n\r\nThe pip gathering since the start of July this year has been relentless, but at the same time there have been days of inactivity waiting for trades and being patient.\r\n\r\nI was going to place this next paragraph about trading with THE PREMIUM SERVICE at the end of the blog but it makes sense to include it here: -\r\n\r\nMy annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets have greater RISK attached my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.\r\n\r\nMy point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.\r\n\r\nSingle MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips\r\nAnticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)\r\n\r\nLess PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nAnnual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)\r\n\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                               = USD$9,000\r\n\r\nWorking on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n50% of my suggested trades\r\n50% of my entries on time\r\n50% of my exits on time\r\nYou could still generate a NET INCOME\r\nafter subscription                                            of USD$4,0000\r\n\r\nObviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.\r\n\r\nRISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><strong>2. THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></p>\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong><u>: GOVERNMENT COALITION ANNOUNCEMENT.\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n26 days following the New Zealand elections, Jacinda Ardern leader of the Labour Party became the country’s latest Prime Minister.\r\n\r\nThere was a split vote almost a month ago and the New Zealand First Party leader, Winston Peters in dramatic form announced that his populist party would throw its support in a coalition with Labour. Along with the “greens” the NZ First and Labour will be the coalition government.\r\n\r\nIt was pure theatre as, neither incumbent Prime Minister Bill English, nor Jacinda Adern knew which way Winston Peters was going move.\r\n\r\nThis result and the coalition is a total unknown and the markets would have preferred a Bill English National Party led coalition.\r\n\r\nThis move should NOT be underestimated, as it is mammoth. It was a decision for change involving Housing, Immigration, reducing NZ poverty and Foreign Investment in property. These are structural economic changes.\r\n\r\nOn the news, the NZD/USD was crushed lower by 160 pips, the EUR/NZD and GBP/USD moved up by over 400 pips each and the antipodean cross AUD/NZD moved up by over 270 pips.\r\n\r\nThese moves were stellar and over the coming sessions I see these moves consolidating. There should be plenty of pips available into the end of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPi, CARNEY, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; BREXIT.</u>\r\n\r\nIt was an action-packed week for sterling.\r\n\r\nThe week started well with CPI which was in line with expectations at 3% this is basically what is fueling the BOE accountants to raise rates as it is a full 1% above the BOE target.\r\n\r\nCarney presented in front of a House of Commons committee on inflation and was dovish but saying that interest rates would probably rise, but it would be more than likely reading between the “yada yada” a one and done scenario. He saw inflation stopping around 3% and cable sold off as a result. There was nothing new in what Carney said so the market reaction was as usual weird.\r\n\r\nAverage earnings came in a 2.2%. The difference between earnings and inflation at 0.8% is hardly the climate in which to raise rates in my opinion. Nevertheless, it looks a done deal with an 80% market expectation that UK interest rates will move higher in November.\r\n\r\nJust to spice things up Retail Sales were a miss. In fact, it was a bloody awful number -0.8% versus an expectation of -0.1%. Cable sold off and then in usual cable style during the day recovered most of its losses.\r\n\r\nIn the middle of all the economic data the BREXIT roadshow stumbled along. Theresa May and David Davis met with Michel Barnier and although a cover up the cracks press release from both parties said that it was a beneficial meeting, the two-year Article 50 transition period extension that Prime Minister May requested did not appear as a resolution from the meeting, so for now at least the March 2019 deadline remains, unreal as it is!\r\n\r\nSo, the $64,000 question is how do you trade cable?\r\n\r\nA few months ago, I think it was HSBC who had a call that matched my own thoughts which was, GBP/USD 1.2000 and EUR/GBP to parity. They have since changed their minds on this call on the basis that originally, they believed that the economy would drive cable and not the BOE. Of late, the BOE is the driver of cable.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am still not so sure that the 1.2000 and parity calls are still the correct ones.\r\n\r\nTo raise rates as I have repeatedly stated during so much uncertainty hanging over the UK never mind the 3% inflation rate is just crazy in my opinion. The fact that earnings are still lagging by 0.8% must weigh in somewhere one would think.\r\n\r\nIt is now widely reported that the BREXIT deal cannot be struck by March 2019 and a “NO DEAL” scenario is becoming more and more likely. I have said from the get go 2 years to exit was an unreal time-scale and I am now vindicated with my prediction and thought process from months ago.\r\n\r\nBack to FX…\r\n\r\nI still do NOT know what way to trade cable. The crosses are now mixed following the New Zealand news. GBP/NZD is pressing higher and the AUD/NZD is also pressing higher which, places pressure on the GBP/AUD to move lower.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/GBP is moving higher back towards 0.9000 once again, however, it appears that it is cool and trendy to short this pair. I do NOT agree with the sheep mentality here and think that this may be the pair to focus on rather than GBP/USD.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThursday last week was the deadline for Catalonia to declare independence. The Catalan president Carles Puidegemont said he wanted to talk dirty with Rahoy, but the Prime minister basically said bollocks and triggered the Spanish government’s Article 155, which takes power away from Catalonia.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nHere’s a taster for what’s ahead. The Catalan government allegedly instructed supporters of independence to go to SABADELL and LA CAIXA banks and take as much cash as they could out of the ATM machines. Trying to create a “RUN” on the banks as these two have announced moving their headquarters out of Catalonia because of the uncertainty.\r\n\r\nOn all the Catalonian shenanigans the EUR/USD fell a few pips and then regained almost all of them back again. This pair is Teflon coated.\r\n\r\nHow the hell do you trade this pair?\r\n\r\nThe ECB eagerly awaited press conference is due this coming Thursday maybe all will be revealed then from the words of wisdom from Mario Draghi. Although, as I wrote last week the ECB has given out detailed forward guidance already on their intentions, there are only a few blanks left to fill. Am I going crazy?\r\n\r\nThe threat of nuclear war from the little rocket man does bugger all to move markets, so the potential of the Spanish economy going down the tubes is like a pimple on the back of an elephant.\r\n\r\nThe Spanish / Catalonia crisis will rumble on for weeks….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> RETAIL SALES &amp; CPi.</u>\r\n\r\nShocking numbers. Retail Sales came through at -0.3%, the market was expecting 0.5%. CPi missed 0.2% monthly versus 0.3% and year to date 1.6% versus 1.7%.\r\n\r\nThis week on Wednesday, the BOC meets. I am still thinking that the BOC will raise before the year end but it looks very doubtful that a rate increase will be announced this week.\r\n\r\nExpect the word “TRANSITORY” to be used a few times!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\n\r\nGARY COHN\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\n\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\n\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP’S opinions in my opinion, are usually based on the “Last Man Standing” approach. The last person he speaks with is usually just wonderful, much better than the person a day earlier who was at that time the best one so far.\r\n\r\nThis has taken up a lot of TV time and newspaper column inches and social media chatter. I can speculate here until the cows come home and even with a deadline in place which is just around the corner, I could still be speculating as my wife and I sit down to our Christmas dinner.\r\n\r\nI take the view that the FED chairperson can influence the markets but he or she does rule over the institution single handedly. There are civil servant types in place to stop change. The FED chair only has limited scope in my opinion. The institution is very long standing and formats and structures are in place to stop people getting carried away with power going to their head.\r\n\r\nTRUMP’s interview will be along the lines of keep interest rates low and say that you want to make America great again and you have the job. That is how simplistic I think TRUMP believes the job to be…. frightening, very scary stuff.\r\n\r\nWe are being told that JEROME POWELL and JOHN TAYLOR are the two front-runners and that a decision will be announced within the next 10 days prior to TRUMP jetting with Melania to Asia on a goodwill visit to calm tensions in the area…yeah right tensions reduced my arse!\r\n\r\nWhat I can tell you in this blog is that the name of Janet Yellen’s replacement appears to have a greater impact on the USD (DXY) than the threat of a nuclear warhead from North Korea…. go figure that one out!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10237\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017-1024x713.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"713\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10238\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017-1024x839.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"839\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10250\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10251\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10249\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10252\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10253\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10254\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10255\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Only two pieces of upcoming economic data interests me this week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> BOC RATE STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE</u>.\r\n\r\nWednesday should be a very interesting day for the CAD currency.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC has been true to his word and maintained credibility with the markets by doing what he said he was going to do.\r\n\r\nI expected a lot of “Transitory” to be used during the Press Conference. I would be astonished if he raised rates at the moment, however, I would be looking very closely to hear his views on a possible hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nScotiaBank still believe that a hike is on the cards before the end of 2017. If their predictions are as good as the service in the local branches I would take this analysis with a pinch of salt!! Being fair, they are not too far away on their FX analysis, but there is always a first time to be well off!!\r\n\r\nI am currently SHORT the USD/CAD. Yes, I am that trader on the COT report!!\r\n\r\nI still expect Poloz to remain with hawkish undertones to his statement. He cannot, turn around after two rate increases and turn dovish. Mark Carney would without a second thought, but Poloz is cut with a different cloth.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB RATE DECISION &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nMario Draghi gets to have his day on announcing the ECB future monetary policy to take the markets through 2018 and beyond.\r\n\r\nWill Draghi and the ECB pull it off? The want to start back on the road to normalization very slowly without the markets pricing everything ion from day one and destroying the EURO.\r\n\r\nGiven his past failures of being able to deliver the content and have the market reaction that he wants has always been the challenge facing the ECB President.\r\n\r\nIn the past, he has not been helped by “bubble and squeak” aka Wolfgang Schauble (ex. German Fin Minister) and Jens Weidman (Head of the Bundesbank), they would continually contradict and dispute Draghi’s path forward with ECB policy. (it’s all part of the EUROPEAN <strong><u>UNION</u> </strong>approach to harmony). If they were not enough the Austrian Central Bank Governor, who, is on the ECB council, Ewald Nowotny, would also contradict and screw up the messages from Draghi!\r\n\r\nSo, to say Mario Draghi has an uphill task would be an understatement.\r\n\r\nHowever, all is NOT lost.\r\n\r\nDraghi has been cute this time around.\r\n\r\nAhead of this week’s press conference the ECB has been giving over the past two weeks what I am viewing as forward guidance.\r\n\r\nInterest rates will remain accommodative long after the ECB bond buying (asset purchase) program has ended. Low rates will be policy for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nThe Quantitative Easing (QE) program is being “Tapered”. Currently at €60 Billion is expected to reduce and the only answers that the market seeks confirmation on are to the following questions; new amount and for how long?\r\n\r\nThe problem that Draghi has is that beyond the top layer it goes much, much deeper.\r\n\r\n28 countries in the EU (presently), with 17 of these countries inside the EUROZONE single currency.\r\n\r\nYou simply cannot have a monetary policy for 17 countries operating centrally. There is no one size fits all.\r\n\r\nTo even get close, structural reforms are required country by country to be more aligned. This is NEVER going to happen. How in the name of sanity can you compare the economies of Germany with those of Malta, Greece or Slovenia? It is just NOT possible.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Therefore, aggressive policies will just NOT work. Maybe the ECB blueprint of accommodative policies to infinity is something that the markets will have to get their heads around.</li>\r\n 	<li>There is NO real inflation.</li>\r\n 	<li>Unemployment is high, especially youth unemployment in too many countries.</li>\r\n 	<li>Growth may be rising but it is patchy in some areas.</li>\r\n 	<li>So much of the positivity of late has been created with a fluctuating OIL price and this is making data better than it is.</li>\r\n 	<li>Negative rates may disappear. However, using the “old school” definition of interest rate normalization, I think is a dream for the ECB and there is no reason to increase interest rates unless there are signs of inflation, which there are NOT.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis Thursday, is a big moment for Draghi and the ECB, his words will be dissected, put back together again and then re-dissected. I was hoping that in conjunction with the FED it would be easier to see the path to trade the EUR/USD. I am not sure. My initial thoughts were to go long EUR/USD, then it changed to short EUR/USD given the ECB forward guidance and the support in the DXY to buy USD.\r\n\r\nI closed my EUR/USD last Friday for a tiny profit. I am playing a waiting game now until after the ECB. I am sticking to cross rate pairs in the interim.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would NOT be sitting in front of a bank of computer screens typing away…\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying the USD leads. This week however, we have two Central Banks reporting.\r\n\r\nThe BOC and ECB for differing reasons both have the markets attention. Both are involved in potentially big moves for the FX market.\r\n\r\nAdd to this the fact that the market is twitchy over the announcement of the new FED Chairperson and the overhang of geopolitical tensions in NORTH KOREA and IRAN. Plus, we also have BREXIT and CATALONIA to work with.\r\n\r\nTHE NZD is close to being toast. This is covered in much more detail later in this blog for my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nBasically, I would use cross rates until we see how the USD is going to react to the news when it finally comes through.\r\n\r\nIt is so tempting to trade EUR/USD and USD/JPY but in real terms the risks are too apparent at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY is no longer correlated to the Nikkei – huge RISK when it corrects or the Nikkei corrects either way it is impossible to gauge timelines and what happens first.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is very just range bound itself because the markets are indecisive. It is winding up for a big move and I do not think that this will happen until the ECB announcement later this week. Bear in mind, a threat of Nuclear War, senior citizens being manhandled out of polling booth, Catalan Independence and BREXIT failings, have all failed to move this pair.  The change in FED chairperson has had more of an effect but even looking deeper into this, it’s been reasonably muted when all said and done.\r\n\r\nI got suckered into EUR/USD trades last week, it took me a couple of days to exit with a small profit. I just DO NOT see the reason to go mad into anything USD related, maybe the NZD/USD exempted until the dust settles on several issues. There are plenty of other opportunities.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL: +1,112 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +1,753 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +9,159 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #256 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n22nd October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WILL THE ECB PULL IT OFF?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'will-ecb-pull-off', '', '', '2017-10-21 07:36:09', '2017-10-21 12:36:09', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10264', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(10265, 1, '2017-10-21 07:36:09', '2017-10-21 12:36:09', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI began last week, carrying forward from the prior week some large negative cross rates losses. The charts prior to some poor US data were relatively constructive and I made the decision based upon my longer-term views to HEDGE four cross-rate trades. The decision to HEDGE was made primarily due to rising geopolitical tensions and headline news events that could just rip up in my face… NORTH KOREA, IRAN, CATALONIA and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nAt the beginning of the week, Monday and Tuesday, I was playing a waiting and watching game. Now HEDGED my losses were fixed and I set up what I call the “OUT” trade based on revised chart analysis. The market was slow and just trying to extract a few pips a day was difficult as we were range bound. I was Tweeting and writing to my subscribers that for me at the current time it was all about patience. I had to let the markets consolidate.\r\n\r\nWednesday I was really pist off as I let a few pips drift by.\r\n\r\nThen overnight Wednesday/Thursday early morning it all kicked off. My PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were already positioned SHORT the NZD as this was one of my CORE POSITIONS for some time.\r\n\r\nThe coalition announcement was just what the doctor ordered. At one stage I had almost 30 LIVE trades to deal with and fresh trades triggered what felt like every two or three minutes as the Kiwi got crushed. At 2:30AM last Thursday I was up and at my screens. The following 4-5 hours reminded me why I enjoy trading so much. I took profits off the table, banked pips, moved stops to protect $$$, increased limits and removed some other trades that were just part of the forest stopping me from seeing the wood on the trees I wanted to follow. It was hectic, and, at times frantic whilst I gathered my thoughts and put my TRADING PLAN which was thought through from the night before into action.\r\n\r\nTwo of the HEDGES have been exited in profit by 132 additional pips. Of the remaining HEDGES, one is on the way to its exit and the other has yet to move considerably in my chosen “OUT” direction, but as my trading position is fixed; I can wait and focus elsewhere first.\r\n\r\nThe great news is that from my trading perspective the New Zealand government coalition is NZD negative and the trade has only just begun.\r\n\r\nSo, what I thought was going to be one of the most boring weeks of trading since I started was exciting and quite profitable.\r\n\r\nTo put the week in perspective. The prior week 160 net pips were added. Last week the PREMIUM SERVICE added an additional net pip total of +1,112 pips, making the total for 2017 +9,159 pips.\r\n\r\nOn June 25th, 2017, just after Breda and I had completed our trip to Australia and New Zealand, which followed our cross-country house move into Nova Scotia, the pip total stood at 2,113 pips.\r\n\r\nThe pip gathering since the start of July this year has been relentless, but at the same time there have been days of inactivity waiting for trades and being patient.\r\n\r\nI was going to place this next paragraph about trading with THE PREMIUM SERVICE at the end of the blog but it makes sense to include it here: -\r\n\r\nMy annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets have greater RISK attached my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.\r\n\r\nMy point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.\r\n\r\nSingle MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips\r\nAnticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)\r\n\r\nLess PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nAnnual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)\r\n\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                               = USD$9,000\r\n\r\nWorking on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n50% of my suggested trades\r\n50% of my entries on time\r\n50% of my exits on time\r\nYou could still generate a NET INCOME\r\nafter subscription                                            of USD$4,0000\r\n\r\nObviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.\r\n\r\nRISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><strong>2. THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></p>\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong><u>: GOVERNMENT COALITION ANNOUNCEMENT.\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n26 days following the New Zealand elections, Jacinda Ardern leader of the Labour Party became the country’s latest Prime Minister.\r\n\r\nThere was a split vote almost a month ago and the New Zealand First Party leader, Winston Peters in dramatic form announced that his populist party would throw its support in a coalition with Labour. Along with the “greens” the NZ First and Labour will be the coalition government.\r\n\r\nIt was pure theatre as, neither incumbent Prime Minister Bill English, nor Jacinda Adern knew which way Winston Peters was going move.\r\n\r\nThis result and the coalition is a total unknown and the markets would have preferred a Bill English National Party led coalition.\r\n\r\nThis move should NOT be underestimated, as it is mammoth. It was a decision for change involving Housing, Immigration, reducing NZ poverty and Foreign Investment in property. These are structural economic changes.\r\n\r\nOn the news, the NZD/USD was crushed lower by 160 pips, the EUR/NZD and GBP/USD moved up by over 400 pips each and the antipodean cross AUD/NZD moved up by over 270 pips.\r\n\r\nThese moves were stellar and over the coming sessions I see these moves consolidating. There should be plenty of pips available into the end of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPi, CARNEY, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; BREXIT.</u>\r\n\r\nIt was an action-packed week for sterling.\r\n\r\nThe week started well with CPI which was in line with expectations at 3% this is basically what is fueling the BOE accountants to raise rates as it is a full 1% above the BOE target.\r\n\r\nCarney presented in front of a House of Commons committee on inflation and was dovish but saying that interest rates would probably rise, but it would be more than likely reading between the “yada yada” a one and done scenario. He saw inflation stopping around 3% and cable sold off as a result. There was nothing new in what Carney said so the market reaction was as usual weird.\r\n\r\nAverage earnings came in a 2.2%. The difference between earnings and inflation at 0.8% is hardly the climate in which to raise rates in my opinion. Nevertheless, it looks a done deal with an 80% market expectation that UK interest rates will move higher in November.\r\n\r\nJust to spice things up Retail Sales were a miss. In fact, it was a bloody awful number -0.8% versus an expectation of -0.1%. Cable sold off and then in usual cable style during the day recovered most of its losses.\r\n\r\nIn the middle of all the economic data the BREXIT roadshow stumbled along. Theresa May and David Davis met with Michel Barnier and although a cover up the cracks press release from both parties said that it was a beneficial meeting, the two-year Article 50 transition period extension that Prime Minister May requested did not appear as a resolution from the meeting, so for now at least the March 2019 deadline remains, unreal as it is!\r\n\r\nSo, the $64,000 question is how do you trade cable?\r\n\r\nA few months ago, I think it was HSBC who had a call that matched my own thoughts which was, GBP/USD 1.2000 and EUR/GBP to parity. They have since changed their minds on this call on the basis that originally, they believed that the economy would drive cable and not the BOE. Of late, the BOE is the driver of cable.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am still not so sure that the 1.2000 and parity calls are still the correct ones.\r\n\r\nTo raise rates as I have repeatedly stated during so much uncertainty hanging over the UK never mind the 3% inflation rate is just crazy in my opinion. The fact that earnings are still lagging by 0.8% must weigh in somewhere one would think.\r\n\r\nIt is now widely reported that the BREXIT deal cannot be struck by March 2019 and a “NO DEAL” scenario is becoming more and more likely. I have said from the get go 2 years to exit was an unreal time-scale and I am now vindicated with my prediction and thought process from months ago.\r\n\r\nBack to FX…\r\n\r\nI still do NOT know what way to trade cable. The crosses are now mixed following the New Zealand news. GBP/NZD is pressing higher and the AUD/NZD is also pressing higher which, places pressure on the GBP/AUD to move lower.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/GBP is moving higher back towards 0.9000 once again, however, it appears that it is cool and trendy to short this pair. I do NOT agree with the sheep mentality here and think that this may be the pair to focus on rather than GBP/USD.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThursday last week was the deadline for Catalonia to declare independence. The Catalan president Carles Puidegemont said he wanted to talk dirty with Rahoy, but the Prime minister basically said bollocks and triggered the Spanish government’s Article 155, which takes power away from Catalonia.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nHere’s a taster for what’s ahead. The Catalan government allegedly instructed supporters of independence to go to SABADELL and LA CAIXA banks and take as much cash as they could out of the ATM machines. Trying to create a “RUN” on the banks as these two have announced moving their headquarters out of Catalonia because of the uncertainty.\r\n\r\nOn all the Catalonian shenanigans the EUR/USD fell a few pips and then regained almost all of them back again. This pair is Teflon coated.\r\n\r\nHow the hell do you trade this pair?\r\n\r\nThe ECB eagerly awaited press conference is due this coming Thursday maybe all will be revealed then from the words of wisdom from Mario Draghi. Although, as I wrote last week the ECB has given out detailed forward guidance already on their intentions, there are only a few blanks left to fill. Am I going crazy?\r\n\r\nThe threat of nuclear war from the little rocket man does bugger all to move markets, so the potential of the Spanish economy going down the tubes is like a pimple on the back of an elephant.\r\n\r\nThe Spanish / Catalonia crisis will rumble on for weeks….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> RETAIL SALES &amp; CPi.</u>\r\n\r\nShocking numbers. Retail Sales came through at -0.3%, the market was expecting 0.5%. CPi missed 0.2% monthly versus 0.3% and year to date 1.6% versus 1.7%.\r\n\r\nThis week on Wednesday, the BOC meets. I am still thinking that the BOC will raise before the year end but it looks very doubtful that a rate increase will be announced this week.\r\n\r\nExpect the word “TRANSITORY” to be used a few times!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\n\r\nGARY COHN\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\n\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\n\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP’S opinions in my opinion, are usually based on the “Last Man Standing” approach. The last person he speaks with is usually just wonderful, much better than the person a day earlier who was at that time the best one so far.\r\n\r\nThis has taken up a lot of TV time and newspaper column inches and social media chatter. I can speculate here until the cows come home and even with a deadline in place which is just around the corner, I could still be speculating as my wife and I sit down to our Christmas dinner.\r\n\r\nI take the view that the FED chairperson can influence the markets but he or she does rule over the institution single handedly. There are civil servant types in place to stop change. The FED chair only has limited scope in my opinion. The institution is very long standing and formats and structures are in place to stop people getting carried away with power going to their head.\r\n\r\nTRUMP’s interview will be along the lines of keep interest rates low and say that you want to make America great again and you have the job. That is how simplistic I think TRUMP believes the job to be…. frightening, very scary stuff.\r\n\r\nWe are being told that JEROME POWELL and JOHN TAYLOR are the two front-runners and that a decision will be announced within the next 10 days prior to TRUMP jetting with Melania to Asia on a goodwill visit to calm tensions in the area…yeah right tensions reduced my arse!\r\n\r\nWhat I can tell you in this blog is that the name of Janet Yellen’s replacement appears to have a greater impact on the USD (DXY) than the threat of a nuclear warhead from North Korea…. go figure that one out!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10237\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017-1024x713.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"713\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10238\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017-1024x839.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"839\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10250\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10251\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10249\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10252\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10253\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10254\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10255\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Only two pieces of upcoming economic data interests me this week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> BOC RATE STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE</u>.\r\n\r\nWednesday should be a very interesting day for the CAD currency.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC has been true to his word and maintained credibility with the markets by doing what he said he was going to do.\r\n\r\nI expected a lot of “Transitory” to be used during the Press Conference. I would be astonished if he raised rates at the moment, however, I would be looking very closely to hear his views on a possible hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nScotiaBank still believe that a hike is on the cards before the end of 2017. If their predictions are as good as the service in the local branches I would take this analysis with a pinch of salt!! Being fair, they are not too far away on their FX analysis, but there is always a first time to be well off!!\r\n\r\nI am currently SHORT the USD/CAD. Yes, I am that trader on the COT report!!\r\n\r\nI still expect Poloz to remain with hawkish undertones to his statement. He cannot, turn around after two rate increases and turn dovish. Mark Carney would without a second thought, but Poloz is cut with a different cloth.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB RATE DECISION &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nMario Draghi gets to have his day on announcing the ECB future monetary policy to take the markets through 2018 and beyond.\r\n\r\nWill Draghi and the ECB pull it off? The want to start back on the road to normalization very slowly without the markets pricing everything ion from day one and destroying the EURO.\r\n\r\nGiven his past failures of being able to deliver the content and have the market reaction that he wants has always been the challenge facing the ECB President.\r\n\r\nIn the past, he has not been helped by “bubble and squeak” aka Wolfgang Schauble (ex. German Fin Minister) and Jens Weidman (Head of the Bundesbank), they would continually contradict and dispute Draghi’s path forward with ECB policy. (it’s all part of the EUROPEAN <strong><u>UNION</u> </strong>approach to harmony). If they were not enough the Austrian Central Bank Governor, who, is on the ECB council, Ewald Nowotny, would also contradict and screw up the messages from Draghi!\r\n\r\nSo, to say Mario Draghi has an uphill task would be an understatement.\r\n\r\nHowever, all is NOT lost.\r\n\r\nDraghi has been cute this time around.\r\n\r\nAhead of this week’s press conference the ECB has been giving over the past two weeks what I am viewing as forward guidance.\r\n\r\nInterest rates will remain accommodative long after the ECB bond buying (asset purchase) program has ended. Low rates will be policy for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nThe Quantitative Easing (QE) program is being “Tapered”. Currently at €60 Billion is expected to reduce and the only answers that the market seeks confirmation on are to the following questions; new amount and for how long?\r\n\r\nThe problem that Draghi has is that beyond the top layer it goes much, much deeper.\r\n\r\n28 countries in the EU (presently), with 17 of these countries inside the EUROZONE single currency.\r\n\r\nYou simply cannot have a monetary policy for 17 countries operating centrally. There is no one size fits all.\r\n\r\nTo even get close, structural reforms are required country by country to be more aligned. This is NEVER going to happen. How in the name of sanity can you compare the economies of Germany with those of Malta, Greece or Slovenia? It is just NOT possible.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Therefore, aggressive policies will just NOT work. Maybe the ECB blueprint of accommodative policies to infinity is something that the markets will have to get their heads around.</li>\r\n 	<li>There is NO real inflation.</li>\r\n 	<li>Unemployment is high, especially youth unemployment in too many countries.</li>\r\n 	<li>Growth may be rising but it is patchy in some areas.</li>\r\n 	<li>So much of the positivity of late has been created with a fluctuating OIL price and this is making data better than it is.</li>\r\n 	<li>Negative rates may disappear. However, using the “old school” definition of interest rate normalization, I think is a dream for the ECB and there is no reason to increase interest rates unless there are signs of inflation, which there are NOT.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis Thursday, is a big moment for Draghi and the ECB, his words will be dissected, put back together again and then re-dissected. I was hoping that in conjunction with the FED it would be easier to see the path to trade the EUR/USD. I am not sure. My initial thoughts were to go long EUR/USD, then it changed to short EUR/USD given the ECB forward guidance and the support in the DXY to buy USD.\r\n\r\nI closed my EUR/USD last Friday for a tiny profit. I am playing a waiting game now until after the ECB. I am sticking to cross rate pairs in the interim.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would NOT be sitting in front of a bank of computer screens typing away…\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying the USD leads. This week however, we have two Central Banks reporting.\r\n\r\nThe BOC and ECB for differing reasons both have the markets attention. Both are involved in potentially big moves for the FX market.\r\n\r\nAdd to this the fact that the market is twitchy over the announcement of the new FED Chairperson and the overhang of geopolitical tensions in NORTH KOREA and IRAN. Plus, we also have BREXIT and CATALONIA to work with.\r\n\r\nTHE NZD is close to being toast. This is covered in much more detail later in this blog for my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nBasically, I would use cross rates until we see how the USD is going to react to the news when it finally comes through.\r\n\r\nIt is so tempting to trade EUR/USD and USD/JPY but in real terms the risks are too apparent at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY is no longer correlated to the Nikkei – huge RISK when it corrects or the Nikkei corrects either way it is impossible to gauge timelines and what happens first.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is very just range bound itself because the markets are indecisive. It is winding up for a big move and I do not think that this will happen until the ECB announcement later this week. Bear in mind, a threat of Nuclear War, senior citizens being manhandled out of polling booth, Catalan Independence and BREXIT failings, have all failed to move this pair.  The change in FED chairperson has had more of an effect but even looking deeper into this, it’s been reasonably muted when all said and done.\r\n\r\nI got suckered into EUR/USD trades last week, it took me a couple of days to exit with a small profit. I just DO NOT see the reason to go mad into anything USD related, maybe the NZD/USD exempted until the dust settles on several issues. There are plenty of other opportunities.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL: +1,112 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +1,753 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +9,159 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #256 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n22nd October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WILL THE ECB PULL IT OFF?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10264-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-10-21 07:36:09', '2017-10-21 12:36:09', '', 10264, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10264-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(10289, 1, '2017-10-28 05:48:39', '2017-10-28 10:48:39', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week’s title for my blog was: -\r\n\r\n<strong>WILL THE ECB PULL IT OFF?</strong>\r\n\r\nThe answer was a resounding “Yes” ….\r\n\r\nDespite the odds stacked against him Mario Draghi did a modern-day Houdini act. He delivered a “THUNDERBOLT” to the markets and silenced EURO bulls inside a minute.\r\n\r\nI will comment more about this later.\r\n\r\nLast week was like the week before lots of pips and $$$ being generated, primarily on the back of NZD weakness across the board.\r\n\r\nI cleared my 4 x HEDGED trades (2 x EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD) with net profits, only to enter three more on the back of the BOC last Wednesday. I am still a believer that the USD/CAD will be going lower than 1.2000 and that the BOC will surprise hike once again. Having not hedged trades for over two years to jump in with 7 in the same month is a bit of a nose-bleed situation.\r\n\r\nI personally view HEDGING as a trading tool to effectively “park” trades that you are in, that are moving sideways or against you but FUNDAMENTALLY you believe that you are directionally correct.\r\n\r\nOn many occasions, you can be focused on trades that are “up in your face” and let other trades go by. HEDGING removes this. I hedged last Wednesday, and I am still waiting to activate my exit strategy.\r\n\r\nMoving on.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE has now achieved its annual target of net 10,000 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong>The total for 2017 now stands at 10,702 pips</strong>\r\n\r\nI am delighted with this because I have achieved this despite the fact that I moved home this year, trekking 13 hours across Canada out of Quebec into Nova Scotia, which took up a lot of my time. Plus, the move was followed by a 25-day trip to Australia and New Zealand, moving to a new house, with all the planning and scheduling with the trip as well, certainly placed an additional stress on trading. Remote trading is at the best of time very stressful. It was when all said and done about a three-month event, therefore to hit target with over two months of the year left is pleasing.\r\n\r\nAs my good friend, Roger would say “Happy Days”, I would add “Fecking” into the middle of his little saying.\r\n\r\nThe following section was in last week’s blog and I am leaving it unchanged (except for Italics) again this week, with the added couple of comments: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>As we enter the final couple of months in 2017, If you are thinking about FX trading as an additional income stream, why not get on board now? Get used to the way I do things, get familiar with the PREMIUM SERVICE system and get ready for blast off in 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>Between now and the end of 2017 there are still pips to be gathered and $$$ to make!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>My annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight</em><em>, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets having greater RISK attached, my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>My point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Single MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Anticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Less PREMIUM SERVICE</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Annual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)</em><em>\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                               = USD$9,000</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Working on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n</em><em>50% of my suggested trades\r\n</em><em>50% of my entries on time\r\n</em><em>50% of my exits on time\r\n</em><em>You could still generate a NET INCOME\r\n</em><em>after subscription                                            of USD$4,0000</em>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Obviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>RISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.</em>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>BOC</u></strong><u>: INTEREST RATE DECISION.</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged last week. This was not a complete surprise as recent financial data had been sliding away.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, BOC Governor, was quite dovish, but now that I understand him a little better he was really being nothing other than “matter of fact” with his language. Nevertheless, the CAD weakened like crazy, moving the USD/CAD about 150 pips higher to 1.2800. Potentially there is the chance of a 1.3000 re-test especially if you add in USD strength.\r\n\r\nWhilst, I think he sounded dovish, Poloz also amended forward forecasting quite a bit. Both the 2017 growth was revised up and the same for 2018, he also was very clear stating that less monetary stimulus would be required into the Canadian Economy.\r\n\r\nThe old chestnuts about Inflation risks to the downside, excess capacity in the Labour Market, softness in wage growth and elevated household debt all featured vis-a-vis the effects on these from higher interest rates.\r\n\r\nPoloz focused a great deal on lower inflation so reading between the lines the chances of another hike in 2017 look a little optimistic at this stage. We should not get too carried away here as 4 weeks ago we were expecting another hike this year, it could all turn around again in the next 2/3 weeks and a December move once again becomes a possibility.\r\n\r\nOne thing I have learned in trading FX for 10 years is never say never; even with a Central Bank.\r\n\r\nMy bias with the CAD, referring to USD/CAD is short-term Canadian weakness to be replaced at the turn of next year at the latest with CAD strength and the USD/CAD moving back lower towards 1.2000 once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB INTEREST RATE &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\n<u>THE DRAGHI THUNDERBOLT:</u>\r\n\r\nFair play the Pizza Boy pulled it off!\r\n\r\nAs mentioned last week the forward guidance provided was pretty much in line with what Draghi regurgitated to the assembled unsullied in Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nThe key takeaway was that the asset purchases would fall from the current €60 billion per month to €30 billion per month with effect from January 2018 and run at least until September 2018 or beyond. Expiring maturing securities that the ECB currently owns will be re-invested.\r\n\r\nThe key phrase from Draghi that was used on a number of occasions was “Extended period of time”, I was looking out for a well-used FED term “Transitory” and at times I was a little distracted but I do not recall a “Transitory” being used. However, “Extended period of time” for as long as necessary featured quite a bit.\r\n\r\nDraghi stated that there would be NO interest rate increase until the end of the Asset Purchases (QE) that means October 2018 at the earliest. That was like a knife straight through the middle of all the aspiring Euro bull’s hearts.\r\n\r\nBasically, Draghi was as dovish as he could be highlighting the only thing that he could highlight as an area of concern that was keeping the ECB accommodative moving forward, that was inflation, or rather the lack of it. He could not focus on other economic data as generally speaking all EUROZONE data has been improving of late. The only blemish is inflation. This was his focus.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD fell on his prepared statement and subsequent Q &amp; A through his press conference just a few pips shy of 200 pips. I would say that if I still lived in Marbella, Spain I would be able to hear the “Draghi” champagne corks popping all the way from Frankfurt.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nEUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nThis is going to be made into a Christmas pantomime.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont was going to announce independence then he wasn\'t … wait 30 minutes longer and he was definitely going to announce it.\r\n\r\nWell…\r\n\r\nHe didn’t and the best that I can make out is that he wants more elections that Madrid won’t agree to!\r\n\r\nI think that we are back at square one.\r\n\r\nThere are meetings scheduled and discussions within the Catalan parliament but with Madrid holding all the keys now it all seems rather old news to me now.\r\n\r\nThe funniest piece of news last Friday, was that at the same time as the Catalonian government were voting on declaring independence the Madrid parliament was voting through Article 155 to take away all the powers of Catalonia.\r\n\r\nLate Friday, I noticed on the wires that Puidgemont could get a jail sentence of up to 30 years for his recent actions.\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\nGARY COHN\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\nThat was last week’s list….\r\n\r\nHere is this week’s list….\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\nAs far as I can gather it’s an either-or decision for the president who believes his key roles under his job description as leader of the free world are: -\r\n\r\nKeep the Stock Market going up at all costs.\r\nKeep interest rates low.\r\nArgue on twitter with as many people as possible.\r\n\r\nInsult families of service people who have made the ultimate sacrifice for their country.\r\n\r\nSlag off the press. Unless he likes the reporting its “FAKE NEWS”\r\n\r\nLast Friday an unnamed White House source said that THE DONALD was leaning towards POWELL. Is this FAKE NEWS? Rule nothing out at all. Just because BLOOMBERG who delivered the news believes that they were given an exclusive means nothing vis-à-vis this administration.\r\n\r\nThe bookies still have POWELL &amp; TAYLOR as the dream ticket possibly filling the CHAIR and VICE CHAIR roles. It could be more like a fecking nightmare for them with TRUMP as President if this is true and plays out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECONOMIC-DATA-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10267\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECONOMIC-DATA-29102017-1024x934.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"934\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10268\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-29102017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10282\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10283\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10281\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10284\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10285\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10286\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10287\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThis week is packed and will be volatile, there are key events dotted throughout the week. The following are the pick from my perspective and the ones that interest me the most.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> GDP &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nGDP is on Tuesday and the jobs data is released the same as NFP on Friday.\r\n\r\nThe CAD$ is weak following some poor data and then a very dovish BOC policy statement last week. Positioning for the CAD was very heavily based on CAD strength, I am one of those traders, in fact I have hedged my CAD short positions for the shorter term. I have NOT ruled out a hike before the end of 2017 and the data that the market feeds off has little impact on how the BOC thinks. The last interest rate hike for example was a surprise.\r\n\r\nCAD banks have re-positioned themselves, vis-à-vis their thoughts on interest rate increases and whilst in the main they see hikes early into 2018 only a couple are still believing that December 2017 should NOT be ruled out.\r\n\r\nThe data this week will either place what many would call the final nail in the coffin on no rate hikes in 2017, or if data is good maybe positioning will change.\r\n\r\nThe previous reading on GDP was 0%\r\nThis month the expectation is for 0.1%\r\nEmployment last month was +10,000\r\nThis Month the market is expecting +13,600\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMi.</u>\r\n\r\nMy God that was a quick month…\r\n\r\nIt only seems a week or so ago I was predicting and got right, what I am about to predict again.\r\n\r\nLast month: -\r\n\r\nManufacturing 55.1\r\nConstruction 48.1\r\nServices 53.6\r\n\r\nThis month the market expects: -\r\n\r\nManufacturing 55.9\r\nConstruction 48.9\r\nServices 53.3\r\n\r\nThis month I expect to see more of the same. Manufacturing and Construction to miss estimates and Services in line.\r\n\r\nThis information although backward looking is good from a BREXIT position, although PMi data is rather over-shadowed this week by the clatter of BOE data, none more important than the eagerly awaited interest rate decision.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> INFLATION REPORT, INTEREST RATE, MPC VOTES &amp; CARNEY.</u>\r\n\r\nThis is it; Carneys biggest meeting so far. For me this is bigger than his 2 “mile” walk down the BOE corridor the day after the BREXIT vote, to announce more QE and a rate cut.\r\n\r\nHe is now on the brink of raising rates solely because inflation is a 3% above the 2% objective. Everything else in the UK is up in the air both politically and economically.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD has strengthened of late on the back of the expected rate increase, although USD strength is pulling it back towards 1.3000 again.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is still a shambles and the chances of a “NO DEAL” is quickly becoming what many believe will be the outcome. I have always said that the two-year time scale to tie up the loose ends to exit was challenging. Leave it to politicians and we have what can only be expected… a huge fu*k up.\r\n\r\nMany people have argued in the media that a 0.25% basis point increase will do nothing to stop inflation rising as it is “transitory”, if that\'s the case DO NOT raise rates!\r\n\r\nWage growth is a full 1% behind inflation and the proposed 0.25% rate increase will no doubt be passed on in full to households, increasing household debt and further pressures on family budgets will be felt.\r\n\r\nI make no apologies for raising this point again. BREXIT negotiations have NOT got past how much the divorce will cost, never mind the actual issues to address. WE haven’t even heard the word TRADE much of late. The trade deal will be so complex to manage and agree upon.\r\n\r\nCarney must see this. He must see the timetable for BREXIT = better than 50% chance of a NO DEAL. To raise interest rates with this backdrop could go down in the history books as foolish and seriously lacking of any vision.\r\n\r\nIt will be a very interesting announcement this Thursday. The market is anticipating a 0.25% rate increase and 9-0 on the MPC votes in favour of the increase.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> TRADE BALANCE &amp; RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nPolitical calamities appear all over the globe. The Malcolm Turnbull government has now lost control of parliament following a legal intervention precluding dual nationality citizens living in Australia the ability to represent in parliament.\r\n\r\nThe High court ruled that Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is ineligible to remain in Parliament as he has both Aussie and Kiwi citizenships. A bi-election now takes place and Turnbull is now looking for support from minorities to vote with his party to keep the government in play.\r\n\r\nThis political development over hangs the economic data with the view to sentiment moving forward as rallies will probably be sold into should data releases be good for the economy. The political uncertainty will trump economic data and therefore I would use rallies as selling opportunities.\r\n\r\nThe numbers expected are:\r\n\r\nRetail Sales 0.6% last month was a dreadful -0.5%\r\nTrade balance AUD$1.20 Billion versus last month AUD$0.99 Billion\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> ADP, NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT DATA &amp; AVERAGE EARNINGS.</u>\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP circus continues, with the next round of U.S. employment data. The focus will be on average hourly earnings to see if the economy can generate some inflation.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s “transitory” beliefs will be put to the test as we hit the next round of Inflation and jobs data.\r\n\r\nWe all wait with baited breath.\r\n\r\nBottom line, she is raising rates in December come hell or very high water.\r\n\r\nADP Expected 191,000, last month it was 135,000.\r\nNFP Expected 311,000, last month it was -33,000.\r\nAverage Hourly Earnings this month 0.2% last month it was 0.5%\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nWe are jam packed with news events this coming week so you will probably not be too surprised with my thoughts for the coming week\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The EUR/USD has triggered a Head and Shoulders pattern. It will NOT be a straightforward drop lower to its measured move target. At the same time the DXY (USD Index) has an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern in play (see chart below). This will NOT be a fast move higher either.<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10269\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-29102017-1024x493.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"493\" /></a></li>\r\n 	<li>The appointment of the FED CHAIR / VICE CHAIR rumoured to be POWELL / TAYLOR, the “dream team” ticket is being viewed widely as USD positive.This news if released this week should therefore support the Inverted Head and Shoulders move with the DXY.</li>\r\n 	<li>For good measure, we have an FOMC Statement this week. How many “transitory’s” will there be this time around. Yellen will probably announce at this release that she is NOT extending her stay at the FED beyond February 2018.Will the FOMC be USD positive? I would say YES. She cannot suddenly turn dovish after her last Oscar winning performance… or can she?</li>\r\n 	<li>S. employment is always a bit of a lottery and last month the adverse weather was used in advance to say that the numbers should be treated basically as meaningless.This month however a more usual number is expected. The question is will it be USD positive or negative?\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would not be writing this blog!</li>\r\n 	<li>We have a major BOE announcement on Thursday. How Carney deals with the peripherals not as much the rate decision is of greater importance to me moving forward.Nevertheless; this is the MAJOR piece of data this week. However, GBP moves should remain very focused to GBP related pairs.</li>\r\n 	<li>We have CAD jobs at the same time as NFP, the opportunity for a double whammy exists with the CAD should the Cad jobs data be weak and the US data strong.Moves with antipodean currencies on NZD and AUD should just affect local crosses as well.\r\n\r\nI would view any “RIPS” with AUD and NZD opportunities to sell into and obtain good shorting prices.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nWhen you look at my bullet points I am giving a very USD positive (strength) viewpoint and for the time being I am biased that way. However, DO NOT LEAP in with full sized positions and here is why.\r\n\r\nTRUMP is on a goodwill mission to Asia at the end of the week, heaping TRUMP LOVE all over Asia.\r\n\r\nTRUMP is full of himself, full of shite and full of bravado, he is a Mr. Magoo character, leaving chaos and disorder behind wherever he treads. He cannot help himself. The TWEETS will be flowing. Before he leaves, the TWEETS about how great he is will be flowing.\r\n\r\nTrade smaller positions, stay on your toes. TRUMP has a FED announcement before he goes on his “goodwill Trip” and nothing ever passes off smoothly.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, as time has moved forward his true colours are being displayed and having given him the benefit of the doubt for so long, my opinion of him is just that he is no more than at best a walking, talking, tweeting hemorrhoid. I am sure he must have great qualities somewhere, but I can’t see them.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nLook at cross-rate pairs to trade and stay away from currencies that will be directly affected by TRUMP fuck ups… USD, JPY and CHF.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 120px;\"><u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL:             +1,543 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +2,655 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +10,702 net pips</p>\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n10,702 pips for 2017 to date…\r\n\r\nHappy fecking days…\r\n\r\nI still must work off the USD/CAD hedges, which will not be easy as I am still bullish the CAD medium / longer-term and believe that I should have added more long trades in on the BOC Rate decision day as it was telegraphed what was going to happen. I was a little stupid when that was happening. I played that news poorly.\r\n\r\nIt was a great couple of weeks with the cross rates really delivering. We are in consolidation mode at the moment and are waiting for the next move.\r\n\r\nCable will be of interest this week. I have read that many commentators and analysts believe that the 0.25% hike is already baked into the GBP/USD. My arse it is. I want to be ready on Thursday to capture pips on GBP cross rates.\r\n\r\nIf Carney does NOT hike the GBP should be decimated. You can have a negative outcome on a rate hike, rare, but possible. I am not expecting this as things stand at the moment with cable.\r\n\r\nIt is a busy week this coming week and we enter the week lighter than usual with LIVE trades.\r\n\r\nI mentioned on several occasions recently, and, I know some of you thought that I was leaving the party early, that my reasons for exiting many of the open trades early last week were based upon the fact that we had reached over bought and over sold conditions. Plus, we had a Draghi moment to consider.\r\n\r\nI DID NOT participate on ECB day, I could not get 20-30 pip pullbacks with the EUR/USD, in particular, to let me in and also the crosses were suffering across the board. I decided to do something else and be a voyeur trader from time to time during the day.\r\n\r\nFriday was a crap shoot. It was nothing more than a Las Vegas day in Forex. I will NO LONGER participate in those days any more. Even NFP has more sentiment and direction, for me to write that is huge.<u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSo, the last two weeks were “Win-Win” situations vis-à-vis the NZD. Now we move forward.\r\n\r\nMy focus remains with the NZD and now the GBP as well.\r\n\r\nNZD: I expect a pullback before we head lower towards 0.6500 in NZD/USD. We can and probably will go even lower. Nothing from the media news in New Zealand suggests anything remotely positive for the NZD currency, “RALLIES” “SPIKES” and “RIPS” are to be sold into.\r\n\r\nI will be adding but I will try my best to be as selective as possible and not be a NZD slut trader!!\r\n\r\nGBP: There are opportunities here this week. Thursday is Carney’s biggest moment. As stated earlier in the blog it’s not about the hike it\'s the statement and how the BOE view matters moving forward.\r\n\r\nDO NOT think because it’s an interest rate increase that the only way is up! It can be a GBP negative hike… stranger things have happened. I am not expecting this result but it has NOT been ruled out.\r\n\r\nI intend to be ready and loaded…\r\n\r\nWithout stating the bloody obvious the market loves the USD at the moment. Sentiment is most definitely skewed towards buying the USD. As mentioned in several places I believe this to be a short to medium term shift, probably until the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nAfter that I see USD weakness being driven through the markets through Presidential intervention via jaw-boning and interference.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10280\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-29102017-775x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"775\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies.\r\n\r\nThe CAD is on the back burner for now. I have three HEDGED trades to work through. I have just the one HEDGED TRADE with an “OUT” trade in play. I am to coin a phrase “HEDGING my approach to my HEDGES” if that makes sense.\r\n\r\nThe NZD I am waiting for a pullback to use that opportunity to read.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades. All three are HEDGED and one has an “OUT” trade attached.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: These trades will remain on the back burner this week unless there is an opportunity to try and steal 100 pips here or there to offset the HEDGED amounts. I do not see these HEDGES in the same light as the GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/AUD hedges. They were far more straightforward to exit without too much thought and strategy planning. These CAD HEDGES could be around for some time.\r\n\r\nI have no plans currently to place CAD related trades against other pairs. This may change soon, but for now nada!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/JPY short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD trades and a GBP/NZD and NZD/USD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board as soon as I see a meaningful pullback to provide beneficial pricing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u><u></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10271\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-29102017-889x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"889\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10270\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-29102017-1024x1018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1018\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI heard from two brokers.\r\n\r\nVolumes from major banks are lower and the recent period of lack of volatility in the market confirms this view.\r\n\r\nThere is absolutely nothing that the brokers can do in this regard. They are suffering through lower retail volumes because the numbers of retail traders have gradually decreased since the EUR/CHF peg removal.\r\n\r\nI am being reminded about the FXCM removal from the US market also being pivotal, as the mistrust of a high-profile broker was huge, never mind all the white label brokers!!\r\n\r\nThere are plenty of cowboys out there, of that there is no doubt.\r\n\r\nI am trading with 5 brokers, 7 separate accounts at the moment and all is well ... touch wood. My two MT4 brokers VANTAGE FX (Australia) and HANTEC MARKETS (UK) continue to provide me with excellent service. My other TRADE STATION brokers are just excellent to work with.\r\n\r\nIf you are looking to open a separate broker account for PREMIUM SERVICE trades in 2018, take a look at VANTAGE FX or HANTEC MARKETS, signing up through my website link gives you fee advantages with VANTAGE FX.\r\n\r\nGoing back…\r\n\r\nWhenever I hear about reduced volumes, I immediately think consolidation….\r\n\r\nLet’s see what happens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #153 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n29th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE DRAGHI THUNDERBOLT', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-draghi-thunderbolt', '', '', '2018-01-18 13:59:37', '2018-01-18 18:59:37', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10289', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
