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(10769, 1, '2018-01-13 08:15:09', '2018-01-13 13:15:09', '<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE OPENING SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt’s back (THE DRIVE THRU) and I am back!\r\n\r\nWelcome to the first “DRIVE THRU” blog of 2018.\r\n\r\nI have been at my screens for about the last 6/7 trading days and although I am “full-time”, I am gradually easing myself back to full speed.\r\n\r\nOver the Christmas break, in addition to TV bingeing, the odd drop of wine, Jack Daniels and entertaining guests, I spent time looking at my screens checking levels on both weekly and monthly charts so that I could formulate my Q1 and Q2 longer-term position trades into my H1 TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nOf mice and men all the best laid plans…\r\n\r\n(My mother was Scottish and she would often say “The best laid schemes o’ Mice an” Men…quoting Rabbie Burns, The Baird of Ayrshire).\r\n\r\nGood God, education in my blog…..!\r\n\r\nAnyway, of mice and men etc…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday was a big day for FX from my perspective, there was a lot to take in and digest.\r\n\r\nHowever, on Friday…\r\n\r\n“Oops I Did It Again”, another heavily witnessed TRUMP gaffe.\r\n\r\nDespite his claims, you just know he said what he is quoted as saying because following the headlines he selected an area he didn’t say it about and focusses on that. Let me elaborate….\r\n\r\nHe singled out African countries and Africa as a SHITHOLE. He then tweets about it by saying I never said that or used that language about Haiti. He picks a different area to focus on. Now, I wasn’t there but this defence he uses is standard deflection from the narrative to try and take the heat off. He must think we are all a gang of fecking idiots not to see he does the same thing over and over again. Will he get a censure? God knows. Will it stop him? God knows. In the grand scheme of things, he probably couldn’t give a rat’s ass.\r\n\r\nAnyhow the “SHITHOLE” comments just encouraged more sellers of the USD into the market and on Friday afternoon there was basically an exodus. The USD is in the “SHITHOLE” never mind anything else. Next week will be very interesting.\r\n\r\nHowever, prior to this which took place on Friday last week…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday, some macro news involving China reviewing its policy of holding US Debt, certainly placed the cat amongst the pigeons, or as my wife and I prefer as an alternative, it’s like placing Ozzy (Our boy Labrador almost 7 years old, but still a puppy) in a Pet Shop with dog treats on low level shelving. Give him 5 minutes alone, and brace yourself for the outcome -  if you have a Labrador, you will understand.\r\n\r\nI digress…\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nThe move by China, was in fact maybe NOT 100% accurate. Was it all nothing more than posturing?\r\n\r\nThe State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which is China’s FX Manager, 24 hours after BLOOMBERG news broke the headline, retorted;” In our opinion, the news may have quoted the wrong source of information, or it may be false news”\r\n\r\nWell there you have it… clear as fecking mud. “Maybe this, maybe that, maybe my fecking arse!!”\r\n\r\nHowever, the news was believed and still is today to some extent by the markets. For good measure on the same day we also had a JPY short squeeze. This was on the back of the BOJ making a change in its monetary policy, by announcing that it is reducing the amount of long-term bonds it is buying.\r\n\r\nThe upshot of this was, it affected a lot of my open trades. You can imagine my thoughts… here we go again etc.\r\n\r\nSo, mid-morning last Wednesday I started to look at my H1 strategy looking to re-think my attitude to RISK moving forward. Not a major re-think but a bit more thought on the amount I want to have at RISK.\r\n\r\nDid it end there last Wednesday?\r\n\r\nOf course, not… in for a penny in for a pound!\r\n\r\nOne of my CORE POSITIONS for 2018 was blown out of the water with a 400-pip loss across 4 trades; the CAD.\r\n\r\nThe same day, but now my afternoon, a Canadian source close to the CAD negotiators was quoted as stating that the CAD negotiators felt that the TRUMP administration were about to withdraw from the NAFTA agreement. Jesus, Mary and Joseph another damn vicious spike and drop. Luckily, I only took a 400-pip hit it could have been much worse. I was on a webinar at the time and saw the move light up. I exited everything CAD in a matter of moments.\r\n\r\nAt the time, I wondered had I been too hasty closing all trades. Had I not intervened, stops with USD/CAD trades would have been taken, but CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I could have left. I reacted very fast and quickly took the view that as the CAD/JPY was upside down anyhow as a result of the BOJ change in policy, and that was my biggest loss to cover my entire CAD exposure. I saw the words NAFTA on Tweet deck. The move for a NAFTA withdraw could be 200-300 pips of CAD weakness in my opinion… cut and run, head for the hills for me.\r\n\r\nSo; it felt as if my turkey hadn’t even fully digested and we were off again, with more FX volatility over “FAKE NEWS!” 2018 started where 2017 had left off.\r\n\r\nNAFTA news DENIED by the White House. China news gets a guarded DENIAL from the Chinese authorities. What can you do? All I could do was focus on the JPY strength as that was REAL BOJ NEWS!\r\n\r\nIronically, my iTunes was playing a Neil Young song from the album Time Fades Away, titled “Don’t Be Denied”. How fitting given all the denials!\r\n\r\nI never had the BOJ changing monetary policy in my plans for 2018 at all. My initial thoughts in hearing the change of policy were: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The “BUY THE DIP” mentality with equities may not be a full-time feature of US equities moving forward, especially with an ever-closer looming trade war with China.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD/JPY below 108.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Sell JPY across the board especially AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn the first week of trading in 2018, FX traders were thrown 3 curve balls. If I had any thoughts it would be a sleepy city start to 2018, dream on.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough to contend with, TRUMP did it again.\r\n\r\nI have updated a few sections within this blog and once again had a review of the content and my focus group on exactly what I want to deliver via this blog.\r\n\r\nVery simply put, it is Market commentary on the FX market, from mostly a Fundamental viewpoint and of course it is delivered in my own words, my own thoughts and my own views in my own style.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to hope that readers who are not subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE like my approach and make the leap of faith and subscribe. The blog is a selling tool but it is also a vehicle that that allows me to take a step back and focus in a structured way on what is on the horizon.\r\n\r\nTo complete this section, this week…\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just starting, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” which is available until January 31st, 2018.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one year complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING LAST WEEK:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10761\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018-1024x878.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"878\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THIS WEEK’S OVERVIEW and OPPORTUNITIES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>\r\n3:1. THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10750\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018-1024x821.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:2. MY THOUGHTS ON HOW TO TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime piece of data on the agenda this week that has caught my eye, from a MUST TRADE perspective:\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC Interest Rate Decision and the Stephen Poloz Press Conference:</u>\r\n\r\nMake no mistake about it, this is a biggie.\r\n\r\nWe have most if not all of the Canadian Banks looking for an interest rate hike this week. Not for one minute do I believe their interest is based around the Canadian Economy. These institutions in Canada are NOT like what they are around the rest of the globe. They couldn’t give a crap about responsibility they are “FEE INCOME” focused and a rate hike loosens the strings to enable them to get more creative in fees and in so doing enhance their bottom lines.\r\n\r\nYou also have to consider from the BOC perspective that they must keep a margin in interest rate policy in line with of the USA. The FED are raising perhaps 3 times in 2018, Poloz cannot afford for the gap to widen.\r\n\r\nThe curve ball of NAFTA has been thrown on the table. If the US decides to withdraw they have to give six months’ notice in writing despite what TRUMP says. Even then, the negotiations can still go on. So, it’s not as black and white as TRUMP would have us all believe.\r\n\r\nCanadian Household debt is the highest of the G10 and at record levels. Banks in Canada have said its nothing to worry about, well they would say that wouldn’t they!\r\n\r\nThe BOC do NOT like this.\r\n\r\nGiven interest rate margins vis-à-vis the US and Household Debt, I can see the BOC raising, killing two birds with one stone, so to speak.\r\n\r\nIt will be about the language in the statement regarding clues on more rate hikes in 2018 that will really set the fire under the CAD. We have a Press Conference as well. It is a bit of “A Chaps In The City” approach, not as bad as the RBNZ, but Poloz is not as guarded on language as Mario Draghi so we will need to follow this as well.\r\n\r\nIf they (BOC) do not raise rates the USD/CAD will be back at 1.2900 very quickly. If they do raise rates, the BOC has gotten great bang for its buck in the past on rate hikes in 2017, circa. $0.04 cents per 0.25% hike!\r\n\r\nSo, with that said what I am thinking…?\r\n\r\nThe first issue is the “SHITHOLE” fallout. Buckets load of USD were sold on Friday afternoon into the close of the week. Usually, I would say that there should be a pullback because across many, many pair we are grossly over bought / oversold and the DXY is oversold.\r\n\r\nSo, at the start of the trading week be prepared. It all depends on how this story progresses over the weekend. The DXY could go extreme lower and then the snap back could be vicious.\r\n\r\nIt is impossible to say what the reaction will be at next week’s open and trading will be very thin.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nObviously, the CAD will be a currency to focus on. My hopes are that we get a spike that I can short into. I will probably layer in limit orders for spikes on USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nGiven the BOJ news I am not going to look to trade the CAD/JPY even though there is a nice potentially well-paying Head and Shoulders pattern available. I am set up with NZD/CAD already and if I were to add another pair to the suggested ones it would be either EUR/CAD or GBP/CAD. I will decide nearer to Wednesday.\r\n\r\nAUD jobs data is the same day as the BOC therefore I would probably not consider the AUD on the back of the CAD data.\r\n\r\nI think the currency to focus on this week is probably the JPY. We have actually confirmed news from the BOJ that affects their monetary policy stance moving forward.\r\n\r\nThe USD itself, I have been shying away from a little given TRUMP and his nonsense. When you have the USD weakening across the board it does make it harder to choose the JPY cross to single out apart from the USD/JPY itself.\r\n\r\nI would be looking at the commodity crosses especially the AUD/JPY, NOK/JPY and NZD/JPY. In addition, the EUR/JPY should NOT be ignored.\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts on the back of the BOJ starting to move away from an accommodative approach is USD/JPY to 108.00, probably even a greater unwind.\r\n\r\nSo, selling JPY strength is the trade maybe to focus on this week.\r\n\r\nOn an associated point. Volumes / liquidity are still not brilliant at certain times. The market is transitional at the moment for a variety of reasons.\r\n\r\nI am NOT a believer that the Asian market is good for FX. Liquidity is just getting lower and lower, year by year and the vast majority of times, Asian moves are reversed in Europe if liquidity is poor. European trading offers much better liquidity to give moves that stick and are directional.\r\n\r\nTherefore, here’s a tip. If you are trading, trade only the following times when liquidity will be at its highest: 8.00AM EST to NOON EST. This may not always be possible but it is without doubt the best time to trade.\r\n\r\nIn addition, be extremely careful with cross rates as they will be the first to suffer from the lower liquidity periods in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:3. USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with MY BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10752\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"886\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:4. USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nLooks bullish to me, but with a caveat.\r\n\r\nSome major moves took place last Friday in particular. Two pieces of news. The rather HAWKISH ECB minutes last Thursday followed by Merkel progressing well in Germany vis-à-vis her coalition formation.\r\n\r\nCaution…\r\n\r\nWiedmann tried his best to halt the single currencies strength by stating that the path to normalization will be a long, long road. After quoting Tom Petty, the EUR/USD sank a little. I think what we must consider here is that ALL the crosses are moving in tandem.\r\n\r\nObviously looking forward there is strong support at 1.1915 and for me we have to break 1.2200 convincingly to see the bulls get a grip. Maybe the “STITHOLE” comments are that catalyst?\r\n\r\nLooking forward, I think that the EUR/USD will strengthen in 2018, but to quote Tom Petty it will be “A long, long road”, and I do not see too much Free Fallin’ in 2018!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10763\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nThunderbirds are go!\r\n\r\nThe Spanish and the Dutch have somewhat broken ranks with the EU27 by stating they think the Brits should have a soft BREXIT.\r\n\r\nGood Lord how much dosh was in that brown paper bag that changed hands? But hang on it was later DENIED!... more FAKE NEWS. The damage was already done as the already perky GBP remained perky.\r\n\r\nThis is a “BUY THE DIP” currency trade in my opinion. The only caveat I have is that always remember as well as good BREXIT news, this pair is always seconds away from a 100 drop on bad BREXIT news.\r\n\r\nThe Cup and Handle pattern on the chart below is in play.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10764\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nWe are in triangle pattern and this pair is up against trend line resistance. My thoughts are that it will push stops and then fall back.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10762\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nAt the moment, this pair is screwing with longer-term strategy. It is in an ascending wedge pattern it has exposed itself beyond trend line resistance and fell back. But, it has not fallen back as strongly as I had thought it would. This probably has more to do with a weak USD than it has with a strong NZD.\r\n\r\nThat aside, it is well over bought and I think it will eventually turn lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10765\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nI have written a lot about this pair. Fundamentally I believe its path is lower towards 1.2000 and even lower this year.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10766\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nI can see this pair at 0.9450 or even lower if the single currency really breaks higher towards 1.3000.\r\n\r\nFor now, we should look at trend lows of circa.9700, maybe back to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.9650.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10767\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nThe JPY is the currency to keep a close eye on moving forward. Below 110.80 it could turn nasty for this pair and cascade lower towards my initial target of 108.00.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ adjusting monetary policy is huge and definitive news not FAKE that we as traders can work with. There is no need to rush at this as 2018 could be the year that the BOJ starts a lot of unwinding. Very interesting times and lots of pips up for grabs in my opinion.\r\n\r\nI am viewing this currency as a bonus in 2018. As far as I was concerned trading the JPY in 2018 was going to be a none event. That plan has now changed.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10768\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nNot exactly what I had expected 2018 to start like.\r\n\r\nTrading the FX market is certainly a challenge at times. Fundamentally, I know what I want to trade and roughly what I want by way of RISK to accommodate and approximate exits. The entries are relatively straightforward, I still believe confluences of buyers and sellers or Fibonacci levels offer up the best positions to start from.\r\n\r\nThere is a plan…\r\n\r\nWhy therefore in the name of sanity with all the strategy planning done over the Christmas holiday period am I starting the year after one week in a negative period?\r\n\r\nBad luck?\r\n\r\nSome of it is poor luck. 390 pips of losses surrounding the CAD regarding NAFTA. Another 180 pips or thereabouts were attributed to trades I closed that I wasn\'t 100% about around the time of NON-Farm Payrolls and naturally coincided with the “Bomb Cyclone” weather storm that hit Atlantic Canada and took out our power for over 12 hours. Combined those events total 570 pips.\r\n\r\nThe rest, being self-critical, can be put down to poor decisions on stop placements, lack of discipline and over confidence. Or, as a seasoned trader I like to call it “NORMALITY and BEING HUMAN”\r\n\r\nSeriously though, losses are as much a part of day to day trading as taking profits.\r\n\r\nThose of you who have been with me for over a couple of years or so, whether individually or with one of my two consortiums will know that I am NOT in any way shape or form a scalper trader. In fact, several of you do not even think I enjoy day trading too much, unless I can see the option of a swing trade!  Last Thursday, I did FLASH TRADE 4 x JPY trades for c.140 pips. To be honest they were more like RADAR TRADES without the limit order entry but still a day trade! I will do more of these in 2018.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a real bonus for me. I had not even considered it for 2018 given the stale BOJ policy. That has now changed and I will be looking most days for JPY trades moving forward. At least JPY trades will be based on real news.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSo; many of you like this segment of the subscriber section because I place down on paper exactly what I am thinking.\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday about 4PM AST my exact thoughts were WTF!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMy fundamental views have not altered. I am still bearish CAD and NZD.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt the NAFTA deal has “placed Ozzy in the pet shop” but that aside, the BOC has to keep pace with the FED regardless of NAFTA when it comes to rate hikes. Poloz can put lipstick on it next Wednesday at the BOC Press Conference but it’s still a PIG at the end of the day and he has to deal with fallout regardless.\r\n\r\nPrivate debt in Canada is out of control, it\'s the highest in the G10, he has to act. The time for mind games is far gone in my opinion and if he dithers, the buck stops with him.\r\n\r\nI think he will raise rates.\r\n\r\nI have placed limit orders in readiness.\r\n\r\nDIE KIWI DIE…. What a bloody pain in the arse currency! All the key indicators, MACD, Stochastics, RSi etc are all showing stretched overbought conditions.\r\n\r\nI think one of the main issues with the NZD has been the moves with regards to the AUD/NZD. The cross-rate effect of this pair has both helped the AUD and hindered the NZD.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, the NZD/USD is now in a very tight ascending wedge, which should she a very sharp and powerful failure and fall back lower. I still have the John Key level of 0.6500 in mind. If achieved this will place <u>ALL</u> AUD/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD trades well in profit. The pip opportunity with these pairs alone in 2018, I believe is potentially more lucrative then the CAD.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about patience and building your positions up the best that you can.\r\n\r\nBeyond the NZD and CAD, I am getting ready for cable. No need to get too excited yet, I need to see some tangible BREXIT data before I get out the party hats and ice up the buckets of Champagne. Being more specific, this will re-define a long-haul trade.\r\n\r\nThe AUD/NZD is a position I will hold basically no matter what. I am prepared for 1.10280-1.0350 if necessary.  It is well funded in its own broker account and I have plenty of scope for huge volatility. This trade is coming up to its three-year birthday.\r\n\r\nThe cable will be multiple pairs, different expectations, different directions and many more issues to consider.\r\n\r\nThe long AUD trade, I am now not so sure about therefore if I am undecided, it is parked for now at least.\r\n\r\nHowever, in horse racing terminology coming up fast on the outside is the JPY. This is a trade option based around the BOJ decision to change policy moving forwards. Is this the start of the great unwind?\r\n\r\nWith both the EUR and JPY coming to the end of dovish policy… Ozzy has his nose pressed hard against the pet shop door ready to get in there and strut his stuff!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SENTIMENT-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10753\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SENTIMENT-13012018-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS and LONGER-TERM TRADE SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. MY TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Prepare for BOC by establishing CAD limit orders as required ahead of the Statement release. Decide my TRADE PLAN ahead of the statement, should the meeting raise rates or do nothing.</li>\r\n 	<li>Add to NZD CORE short position. Re-asses total associated RISK and fund broker if required.</li>\r\n 	<li>Establish a strategy into my TRADE PLAN vis-à-vis the JPY. This is now very much a tradeable currency in 2018. For me it is similar to Lazarus coming back from the dead.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4:3.2. LONG TERM CORE TRADES SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-POS-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10751\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-POS-13012018-1024x986.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"986\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u><u> </u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10755\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-13012018-1024x560.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIMIT-ORDERS-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10754\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIMIT-ORDERS-13012018-1024x440.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"440\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI have been asked a couple of times what platform do I use for trade charts that I publish on twitter and inside this blog. The answer is cTrader and by coincidence I have added a new FX Broker to the website as one of my recommended ones, to go along with HANTEC MARKETS (London) and VANTAGE FX (Sydney).\r\n\r\nThe new broker is IC MARKETS based in Melbourne, Australia.\r\n\r\nI have been dealing with this company for about 18 months because changes in regulations here in Canada, well Quebec actually where I used to live basically prevented most jurisdictions from operating in the province unless the platform had French content. Even in France it’s all in English!\r\n\r\nThat was one reason to leave Quebec before it implodes. Since “Pasta gate” it just got worse even with laughable commentary from around the world. Quebec is just plain and simple weird.\r\n\r\nGetting back on point…\r\n\r\nI discovered IC MARKETS because of Quebec language laws. They offer MT4 and cTrader platforms, tight spreads, excellent customer service and no slippage.\r\n\r\nIf you want to add another broker click the banner that\'s on most pages of the website and be in the group!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FINAL SHOTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5:1. WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5:2. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #161 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nDATE: 13th January 2018', 'OOPS, I DID IT AGAIN…  TRUMP SENDS USD TO THE SH*THOLE', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'oops-trump-sends-usd-shthole', '', '', '2018-01-18 13:56:01', '2018-01-18 18:56:01', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10769', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
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(10770, 1, '2018-01-13 08:15:09', '2018-01-13 13:15:09', '<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE OPENING SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt’s back (THE DRIVE THRU) and I am back!\r\n\r\nWelcome to the first “DRIVE THRU” blog of 2018.\r\n\r\nI have been at my screens for about the last 6/7 trading days and although I am “full-time”, I am gradually easing myself back to full speed.\r\n\r\nOver the Christmas break, in addition to TV bingeing, the odd drop of wine, Jack Daniels and entertaining guests, I spent time looking at my screens checking levels on both weekly and monthly charts so that I could formulate my Q1 and Q2 longer-term position trades into my H1 TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nOf mice and men all the best laid plans…\r\n\r\n(My mother was Scottish and she would often say “The best laid schemes o’ Mice an” Men…quoting Rabbie Burns, The Baird of Ayrshire).\r\n\r\nGood God, education in my blog…..!\r\n\r\nAnyway, of mice and men etc…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday was a big day for FX from my perspective, there was a lot to take in and digest.\r\n\r\nHowever, on Friday…\r\n\r\n“Oops I Did It Again”, another heavily witnessed TRUMP gaffe.\r\n\r\nDespite his claims, you just know he said what he is quoted as saying because following the headlines he selected an area he didn’t say it about and focusses on that. Let me elaborate….\r\n\r\nHe singled out African countries and Africa as a SHITHOLE. He then tweets about it by saying I never said that or used that language about Haiti. He picks a different area to focus on. Now, I wasn’t there but this defence he uses is standard deflection from the narrative to try and take the heat off. He must think we are all a gang of fecking idiots not to see he does the same thing over and over again. Will he get a censure? God knows. Will it stop him? God knows. In the grand scheme of things, he probably couldn’t give a rat’s ass.\r\n\r\nAnyhow the “SHITHOLE” comments just encouraged more sellers of the USD into the market and on Friday afternoon there was basically an exodus. The USD is in the “SHITHOLE” never mind anything else. Next week will be very interesting.\r\n\r\nHowever, prior to this which took place on Friday last week…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday, some macro news involving China reviewing its policy of holding US Debt, certainly placed the cat amongst the pigeons, or as my wife and I prefer as an alternative, it’s like placing Ozzy (Our boy Labrador almost 7 years old, but still a puppy) in a Pet Shop with dog treats on low level shelving. Give him 5 minutes alone, and brace yourself for the outcome -  if you have a Labrador, you will understand.\r\n\r\nI digress…\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nThe move by China, was in fact maybe NOT 100% accurate. Was it all nothing more than posturing?\r\n\r\nThe State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which is China’s FX Manager, 24 hours after BLOOMBERG news broke the headline, retorted;” In our opinion, the news may have quoted the wrong source of information, or it may be false news”\r\n\r\nWell there you have it… clear as fecking mud. “Maybe this, maybe that, maybe my fecking arse!!”\r\n\r\nHowever, the news was believed and still is today to some extent by the markets. For good measure on the same day we also had a JPY short squeeze. This was on the back of the BOJ making a change in its monetary policy, by announcing that it is reducing the amount of long-term bonds it is buying.\r\n\r\nThe upshot of this was, it affected a lot of my open trades. You can imagine my thoughts… here we go again etc.\r\n\r\nSo, mid-morning last Wednesday I started to look at my H1 strategy looking to re-think my attitude to RISK moving forward. Not a major re-think but a bit more thought on the amount I want to have at RISK.\r\n\r\nDid it end there last Wednesday?\r\n\r\nOf course, not… in for a penny in for a pound!\r\n\r\nOne of my CORE POSITIONS for 2018 was blown out of the water with a 400-pip loss across 4 trades; the CAD.\r\n\r\nThe same day, but now my afternoon, a Canadian source close to the CAD negotiators was quoted as stating that the CAD negotiators felt that the TRUMP administration were about to withdraw from the NAFTA agreement. Jesus, Mary and Joseph another damn vicious spike and drop. Luckily, I only took a 400-pip hit it could have been much worse. I was on a webinar at the time and saw the move light up. I exited everything CAD in a matter of moments.\r\n\r\nAt the time, I wondered had I been too hasty closing all trades. Had I not intervened, stops with USD/CAD trades would have been taken, but CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I could have left. I reacted very fast and quickly took the view that as the CAD/JPY was upside down anyhow as a result of the BOJ change in policy, and that was my biggest loss to cover my entire CAD exposure. I saw the words NAFTA on Tweet deck. The move for a NAFTA withdraw could be 200-300 pips of CAD weakness in my opinion… cut and run, head for the hills for me.\r\n\r\nSo; it felt as if my turkey hadn’t even fully digested and we were off again, with more FX volatility over “FAKE NEWS!” 2018 started where 2017 had left off.\r\n\r\nNAFTA news DENIED by the White House. China news gets a guarded DENIAL from the Chinese authorities. What can you do? All I could do was focus on the JPY strength as that was REAL BOJ NEWS!\r\n\r\nIronically, my iTunes was playing a Neil Young song from the album Time Fades Away, titled “Don’t Be Denied”. How fitting given all the denials!\r\n\r\nI never had the BOJ changing monetary policy in my plans for 2018 at all. My initial thoughts in hearing the change of policy were: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The “BUY THE DIP” mentality with equities may not be a full-time feature of US equities moving forward, especially with an ever-closer looming trade war with China.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD/JPY below 108.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Sell JPY across the board especially AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn the first week of trading in 2018, FX traders were thrown 3 curve balls. If I had any thoughts it would be a sleepy city start to 2018, dream on.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough to contend with, TRUMP did it again.\r\n\r\nI have updated a few sections within this blog and once again had a review of the content and my focus group on exactly what I want to deliver via this blog.\r\n\r\nVery simply put, it is Market commentary on the FX market, from mostly a Fundamental viewpoint and of course it is delivered in my own words, my own thoughts and my own views in my own style.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to hope that readers who are not subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE like my approach and make the leap of faith and subscribe. The blog is a selling tool but it is also a vehicle that that allows me to take a step back and focus in a structured way on what is on the horizon.\r\n\r\nTo complete this section, this week…\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just starting, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” which is available until January 31st, 2018.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one year complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING LAST WEEK:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10761\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018-1024x878.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"878\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THIS WEEK’S OVERVIEW and OPPORTUNITIES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>\r\n3:1. THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10750\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018-1024x821.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:2. MY THOUGHTS ON HOW TO TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime piece of data on the agenda this week that has caught my eye, from a MUST TRADE perspective:\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC Interest Rate Decision and the Stephen Poloz Press Conference:</u>\r\n\r\nMake no mistake about it, this is a biggie.\r\n\r\nWe have most if not all of the Canadian Banks looking for an interest rate hike this week. Not for one minute do I believe their interest is based around the Canadian Economy. These institutions in Canada are NOT like what they are around the rest of the globe. They couldn’t give a crap about responsibility they are “FEE INCOME” focused and a rate hike loosens the strings to enable them to get more creative in fees and in so doing enhance their bottom lines.\r\n\r\nYou also have to consider from the BOC perspective that they must keep a margin in interest rate policy in line with of the USA. The FED are raising perhaps 3 times in 2018, Poloz cannot afford for the gap to widen.\r\n\r\nThe curve ball of NAFTA has been thrown on the table. If the US decides to withdraw they have to give six months’ notice in writing despite what TRUMP says. Even then, the negotiations can still go on. So, it’s not as black and white as TRUMP would have us all believe.\r\n\r\nCanadian Household debt is the highest of the G10 and at record levels. Banks in Canada have said its nothing to worry about, well they would say that wouldn’t they!\r\n\r\nThe BOC do NOT like this.\r\n\r\nGiven interest rate margins vis-à-vis the US and Household Debt, I can see the BOC raising, killing two birds with one stone, so to speak.\r\n\r\nIt will be about the language in the statement regarding clues on more rate hikes in 2018 that will really set the fire under the CAD. We have a Press Conference as well. It is a bit of “A Chaps In The City” approach, not as bad as the RBNZ, but Poloz is not as guarded on language as Mario Draghi so we will need to follow this as well.\r\n\r\nIf they (BOC) do not raise rates the USD/CAD will be back at 1.2900 very quickly. If they do raise rates, the BOC has gotten great bang for its buck in the past on rate hikes in 2017, circa. $0.04 cents per 0.25% hike!\r\n\r\nSo, with that said what I am thinking…?\r\n\r\nThe first issue is the “SHITHOLE” fallout. Buckets load of USD were sold on Friday afternoon into the close of the week. Usually, I would say that there should be a pullback because across many, many pair we are grossly over bought / oversold and the DXY is oversold.\r\n\r\nSo, at the start of the trading week be prepared. It all depends on how this story progresses over the weekend. The DXY could go extreme lower and then the snap back could be vicious.\r\n\r\nIt is impossible to say what the reaction will be at next week’s open and trading will be very thin.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nObviously, the CAD will be a currency to focus on. My hopes are that we get a spike that I can short into. I will probably layer in limit orders for spikes on USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nGiven the BOJ news I am not going to look to trade the CAD/JPY even though there is a nice potentially well-paying Head and Shoulders pattern available. I am set up with NZD/CAD already and if I were to add another pair to the suggested ones it would be either EUR/CAD or GBP/CAD. I will decide nearer to Wednesday.\r\n\r\nAUD jobs data is the same day as the BOC therefore I would probably not consider the AUD on the back of the CAD data.\r\n\r\nI think the currency to focus on this week is probably the JPY. We have actually confirmed news from the BOJ that affects their monetary policy stance moving forward.\r\n\r\nThe USD itself, I have been shying away from a little given TRUMP and his nonsense. When you have the USD weakening across the board it does make it harder to choose the JPY cross to single out apart from the USD/JPY itself.\r\n\r\nI would be looking at the commodity crosses especially the AUD/JPY, NOK/JPY and NZD/JPY. In addition, the EUR/JPY should NOT be ignored.\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts on the back of the BOJ starting to move away from an accommodative approach is USD/JPY to 108.00, probably even a greater unwind.\r\n\r\nSo, selling JPY strength is the trade maybe to focus on this week.\r\n\r\nOn an associated point. Volumes / liquidity are still not brilliant at certain times. The market is transitional at the moment for a variety of reasons.\r\n\r\nI am NOT a believer that the Asian market is good for FX. Liquidity is just getting lower and lower, year by year and the vast majority of times, Asian moves are reversed in Europe if liquidity is poor. European trading offers much better liquidity to give moves that stick and are directional.\r\n\r\nTherefore, here’s a tip. If you are trading, trade only the following times when liquidity will be at its highest: 8.00AM EST to NOON EST. This may not always be possible but it is without doubt the best time to trade.\r\n\r\nIn addition, be extremely careful with cross rates as they will be the first to suffer from the lower liquidity periods in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:3. USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with MY BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10752\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"886\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:4. USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u>\r\n\r\n</strong>Looks bullish to me, but with a caveat.\r\n\r\nSome major moves took place last Friday in particular. Two pieces of news. The rather HAWKISH ECB minutes last Thursday followed by Merkel progressing well in Germany vis-à-vis her coalition formation.\r\n\r\nCaution…\r\n\r\nWiedmann tried his best to halt the single currencies strength by stating that the path to normalization will be a long, long road. After quoting Tom Petty, the EUR/USD sank a little. I think what we must consider here is that ALL the crosses are moving in tandem.\r\n\r\nObviously looking forward there is strong support at 1.1915 and for me we have to break 1.2200 convincingly to see the bulls get a grip. Maybe the “STITHOLE” comments are that catalyst?\r\n\r\nLooking forward, I think that the EUR/USD will strengthen in 2018, but to quote Tom Petty it will be “A long, long road”, and I do not see too much Free Fallin’ in 2018!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10763\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nThunderbirds are go!\r\n\r\nThe Spanish and the Dutch have somewhat broken ranks with the EU27 by stating they think the Brits should have a soft BREXIT.\r\n\r\nGood Lord how much dosh was in that brown paper bag that changed hands? But hang on it was later DENIED!... more FAKE NEWS. The damage was already done as the already perky GBP remained perky.\r\n\r\nThis is a “BUY THE DIP” currency trade in my opinion. The only caveat I have is that always remember as well as good BREXIT news, this pair is always seconds away from a 100 drop on bad BREXIT news.\r\n\r\nThe Cup and Handle pattern on the chart below is in play.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10764\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nWe are in triangle pattern and this pair is up against trend line resistance. My thoughts are that it will push stops and then fall back.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10762\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nAt the moment, this pair is screwing with longer-term strategy. It is in an ascending wedge pattern it has exposed itself beyond trend line resistance and fell back. But, it has not fallen back as strongly as I had thought it would. This probably has more to do with a weak USD than it has with a strong NZD.\r\n\r\nThat aside, it is well over bought and I think it will eventually turn lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10765\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nI have written a lot about this pair. Fundamentally I believe its path is lower towards 1.2000 and even lower this year.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10766\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nI can see this pair at 0.9450 or even lower if the single currency really breaks higher towards 1.3000.\r\n\r\nFor now, we should look at trend lows of circa.9700, maybe back to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.9650.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10767\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nThe JPY is the currency to keep a close eye on moving forward. Below 110.80 it could turn nasty for this pair and cascade lower towards my initial target of 108.00.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ adjusting monetary policy is huge and definitive news not FAKE that we as traders can work with. There is no need to rush at this as 2018 could be the year that the BOJ starts a lot of unwinding. Very interesting times and lots of pips up for grabs in my opinion.\r\n\r\nI am viewing this currency as a bonus in 2018. As far as I was concerned trading the JPY in 2018 was going to be a none event. That plan has now changed.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10768\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nNot exactly what I had expected 2018 to start like.\r\n\r\nTrading the FX market is certainly a challenge at times. Fundamentally, I know what I want to trade and roughly what I want by way of RISK to accommodate and approximate exits. The entries are relatively straightforward, I still believe confluences of buyers and sellers or Fibonacci levels offer up the best positions to start from.\r\n\r\nThere is a plan…\r\n\r\nWhy therefore in the name of sanity with all the strategy planning done over the Christmas holiday period am I starting the year after one week in a negative period?\r\n\r\nBad luck?\r\n\r\nSome of it is poor luck. 390 pips of losses surrounding the CAD regarding NAFTA. Another 180 pips or thereabouts were attributed to trades I closed that I wasn\'t 100% about around the time of NON-Farm Payrolls and naturally coincided with the “Bomb Cyclone” weather storm that hit Atlantic Canada and took out our power for over 12 hours. Combined those events total 570 pips.\r\n\r\nThe rest, being self-critical, can be put down to poor decisions on stop placements, lack of discipline and over confidence. Or, as a seasoned trader I like to call it “NORMALITY and BEING HUMAN”\r\n\r\nSeriously though, losses are as much a part of day to day trading as taking profits.\r\n\r\nThose of you who have been with me for over a couple of years or so, whether individually or with one of my two consortiums will know that I am NOT in any way shape or form a scalper trader. In fact, several of you do not even think I enjoy day trading too much, unless I can see the option of a swing trade!  Last Thursday, I did FLASH TRADE 4 x JPY trades for c.140 pips. To be honest they were more like RADAR TRADES without the limit order entry but still a day trade! I will do more of these in 2018.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a real bonus for me. I had not even considered it for 2018 given the stale BOJ policy. That has now changed and I will be looking most days for JPY trades moving forward. At least JPY trades will be based on real news.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nSo; many of you like this segment of the subscriber section because I place down on paper exactly what I am thinking.\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday about 4PM AST my exact thoughts were WTF!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMy fundamental views have not altered. I am still bearish CAD and NZD.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt the NAFTA deal has “placed Ozzy in the pet shop” but that aside, the BOC has to keep pace with the FED regardless of NAFTA when it comes to rate hikes. Poloz can put lipstick on it next Wednesday at the BOC Press Conference but it’s still a PIG at the end of the day and he has to deal with fallout regardless.\r\n\r\nPrivate debt in Canada is out of control, it\'s the highest in the G10, he has to act. The time for mind games is far gone in my opinion and if he dithers, the buck stops with him.\r\n\r\nI think he will raise rates.\r\n\r\nI have placed limit orders in readiness.\r\n\r\nDIE KIWI DIE…. What a bloody pain in the arse currency! All the key indicators, MACD, Stochastics, RSi etc are all showing stretched overbought conditions.\r\n\r\nI think one of the main issues with the NZD has been the moves with regards to the AUD/NZD. The cross-rate effect of this pair has both helped the AUD and hindered the NZD.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, the NZD/USD is now in a very tight ascending wedge, which should she a very sharp and powerful failure and fall back lower. I still have the John Key level of 0.6500 in mind. If achieved this will place <u>ALL</u> AUD/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD trades well in profit. The pip opportunity with these pairs alone in 2018, I believe is potentially more lucrative then the CAD.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about patience and building your positions up the best that you can.\r\n\r\nBeyond the NZD and CAD, I am getting ready for cable. No need to get too excited yet, I need to see some tangible BREXIT data before I get out the party hats and ice up the buckets of Champagne. Being more specific, this will re-define a long-haul trade.\r\n\r\nThe AUD/NZD is a position I will hold basically no matter what. I am prepared for 1.10280-1.0350 if necessary.  It is well funded in its own broker account and I have plenty of scope for huge volatility. This trade is coming up to its three-year birthday.\r\n\r\nThe cable will be multiple pairs, different expectations, different directions and many more issues to consider.\r\n\r\nThe long AUD trade, I am now not so sure about therefore if I am undecided, it is parked for now at least.\r\n\r\nHowever, in horse racing terminology coming up fast on the outside is the JPY. This is a trade option based around the BOJ decision to change policy moving forwards. Is this the start of the great unwind?\r\n\r\nWith both the EUR and JPY coming to the end of dovish policy… Ozzy has his nose pressed hard against the pet shop door ready to get in there and strut his stuff!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SENTIMENT-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10753\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SENTIMENT-13012018-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS and LONGER-TERM TRADE SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. MY TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Prepare for BOC by establishing CAD limit orders as required ahead of the Statement release. Decide my TRADE PLAN ahead of the statement, should the meeting raise rates or do nothing.</li>\r\n 	<li>Add to NZD CORE short position. Re-asses total associated RISK and fund broker if required.</li>\r\n 	<li>Establish a strategy into my TRADE PLAN vis-à-vis the JPY. This is now very much a tradeable currency in 2018. For me it is similar to Lazarus coming back from the dead.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4:3.2. LONG TERM CORE TRADES SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-POS-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10751\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-POS-13012018-1024x986.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"986\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u><u> </u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10755\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-13012018-1024x560.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIMIT-ORDERS-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10754\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIMIT-ORDERS-13012018-1024x440.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"440\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI have been asked a couple of times what platform do I use for trade charts that I publish on twitter and inside this blog. The answer is cTrader and by coincidence I have added a new FX Broker to the website as one of my recommended ones, to go along with HANTEC MARKETS (London) and VANTAGE FX (Sydney).\r\n\r\nThe new broker is IC MARKETS based in Melbourne, Australia.\r\n\r\nI have been dealing with this company for about 18 months because changes in regulations here in Canada, well Quebec actually where I used to live basically prevented most jurisdictions from operating in the province unless the platform had French content. Even in France it’s all in English!\r\n\r\nThat was one reason to leave Quebec before it implodes. Since “Pasta gate” it just got worse even with laughable commentary from around the world. Quebec is just plain and simple weird.\r\n\r\nGetting back on point…\r\n\r\nI discovered IC MARKETS because of Quebec language laws. They offer MT4 and cTrader platforms, tight spreads, excellent customer service and no slippage.\r\n\r\nIf you want to add another broker click the banner that\'s on most pages of the website and be in the group!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FINAL SHOTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5:1. WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5:2. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #161 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nDATE: 13th January 2018', 'OOPS, I DID IT AGAIN…  TRUMP SENDS USD TO THE SH*THOLE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10769-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-01-13 08:15:09', '2018-01-13 13:15:09', '', 10769, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10769-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10771, 1, '2018-01-13 09:14:33', '2018-01-13 14:14:33', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE OPENING SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt’s back (THE DRIVE THRU) and I am back!\r\n\r\nWelcome to the first “DRIVE THRU” blog of 2018.\r\n\r\nI have been at my screens for about the last 6/7 trading days and although I am “full-time”, I am gradually easing myself back to full speed.\r\n\r\nOver the Christmas break, in addition to TV bingeing, the odd drop of wine, Jack Daniels and entertaining guests, I spent time looking at my screens checking levels on both weekly and monthly charts so that I could formulate my Q1 and Q2 longer-term position trades into my H1 TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nOf mice and men all the best laid plans\r\n\r\n(My mother was Scottish and she would often say “The best laid schemes o’ Mice an” Men…quoting Rabbie Burns, The Baird of Ayrshire).\r\n\r\nGood God, education in my blog…..!\r\n\r\nAnyway, of mice and men etc…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday was a big day for FX from my perspective, there was a lot to take in and digest.\r\n\r\nHowever, on Friday…\r\n\r\n“Oops I Did It Again”, another heavily witnessed TRUMP gaffe.\r\n\r\nDespite his claims, you just know he said what he is quoted as saying because following the headlines he selected an area he didn’t say it about and focusses on that. Let me elaborate….\r\n\r\nHe singled out African countries and Africa as a SHITHOLE. He then tweets about it by saying I never said that or used that language about Haiti. He picks a different area to focus on. Now, I wasn’t there but this defence he uses is standard deflection from the narrative to try and take the heat off. He must think we are all a gang of fecking idiots not to see he does the same thing over and over again. Will he get a censure? God knows. Will it stop him? God knows. In the grand scheme of things, he probably couldn’t give a rat’s ass.\r\n\r\nAnyhow the “SHITHOLE” comments just encouraged more sellers of the USD into the market and on Friday afternoon there was basically an exodus. The USD is in the “SHITHOLE” never mind anything else. Next week will be very interesting.\r\n\r\nHowever, prior to this which took place on Friday last week…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday, some macro news involving China reviewing its policy of holding US Debt, certainly placed the cat amongst the pigeons, or as my wife and I prefer as an alternative, it’s like placing Ozzy (Our boy Labrador almost 7 years old, but still a puppy) in a Pet Shop with dog treats on low level shelving. Give him 5 minutes alone, and brace yourself for the outcome -  if you have a Labrador, you will understand.\r\n\r\nI digress…\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nThe move by China, was in fact maybe NOT 100% accurate. Was it all nothing more than posturing?\r\n\r\nThe State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which is China’s FX Manager, 24 hours after BLOOMBERG news broke the headline, retorted;” In our opinion, the news may have quoted the wrong source of information, or it may be false news”\r\n\r\nWell there you have it… clear as fecking mud. “Maybe this, maybe that, maybe my fecking arse!!”\r\n\r\nHowever, the news was believed and still is today to some extent by the markets. For good measure on the same day we also had a JPY short squeeze. This was on the back of the BOJ making a change in its monetary policy, by announcing that it is reducing the amount of long-term bonds it is buying.\r\n\r\nThe upshot of this was, it affected a lot of my open trades. You can imagine my thoughts… here we go again etc.\r\n\r\nSo, mid-morning last Wednesday I started to look at my H1 strategy looking to re-think my attitude to RISK moving forward. Not a major re-think but a bit more thought on the amount I want to have at RISK.\r\n\r\nDid it end there last Wednesday?\r\n\r\nOf course, not… in for a penny in for a pound!\r\n\r\nOne of my CORE POSITIONS for 2018 was blown out of the water with a 400-pip loss across 4 trades; the CAD.\r\n\r\nThe same day, but now my afternoon, a Canadian source close to the CAD negotiators was quoted as stating that the CAD negotiators felt that the TRUMP administration were about to withdraw from the NAFTA agreement. Jesus, Mary and Joseph another damn vicious spike and drop. Luckily, I only took a 400-pip hit it could have been much worse. I was on a webinar at the time and saw the move light up. I exited everything CAD in a matter of moments.\r\n\r\nAt the time, I wondered had I been too hasty closing all trades. Had I not intervened, stops with USD/CAD trades would have been taken, but CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I could have left. I reacted very fast and quickly took the view that as the CAD/JPY was upside down anyhow as a result of the BOJ change in policy, and that was my biggest loss to cover my entire CAD exposure. I saw the words NAFTA on Tweet deck. The move for a NAFTA withdraw could be 200-300 pips of CAD weakness in my opinion… cut and run, head for the hills for me.\r\n\r\nSo; it felt as if my turkey hadn’t even fully digested and we were off again, with more FX volatility over “FAKE NEWS!” 2018 started where 2017 had left off.\r\n\r\nNAFTA news DENIED by the White House. China news gets a guarded DENIAL from the Chinese authorities. What can you do? All I could do was focus on the JPY strength as that was REAL BOJ NEWS!\r\n\r\nIronically, my iTunes was playing a Neil Young song from the album Time Fades Away, titled “Don’t Be Denied”. How fitting given all the denials!\r\n\r\nI never had the BOJ changing monetary policy in my plans for 2018 at all. My initial thoughts in hearing the change of policy were: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The “BUY THE DIP” mentality with equities may not be a full-time feature of US equities moving forward, especially with an ever-closer looming trade war with China.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD/JPY below 108.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Sell JPY across the board especially AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn the first week of trading in 2018, FX traders were thrown 3 curve balls. If I had any thoughts it would be a sleepy city start to 2018, dream on.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough to contend with, TRUMP did it again.\r\n\r\nI have updated a few sections within this blog and once again had a review of the content and my focus group on exactly what I want to deliver via this blog.\r\n\r\nVery simply put, it is Market commentary on the FX market, from mostly a Fundamental viewpoint and of course it is delivered in my own words, my own thoughts and my own views in my own style.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to hope that readers who are not subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE like my approach and make the leap of faith and subscribe. The blog is a selling tool but it is also a vehicle that that allows me to take a step back and focus in a structured way on what is on the horizon.\r\n\r\nTo complete this section, this week…\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just starting, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” which is available until January 31st, 2018.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one year complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING LAST WEEK:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10761\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018-1024x878.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"878\" /></a>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THIS WEEK’S OVERVIEW and OPPORTUNITIES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u> </u><u> 3:1. THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10750\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018-1024x821.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:2. MY THOUGHTS ON HOW TO TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime piece of data on the agenda this week that has caught my eye, from a MUST TRADE perspective:\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC Interest Rate Decision and the Stephen Poloz Press Conference:</u>\r\n\r\nMake no mistake about it, this is a biggie.\r\n\r\nWe have most if not all of the Canadian Banks looking for an interest rate hike this week. Not for one minute do I believe their interest is based around the Canadian Economy. These institutions in Canada are NOT like what they are around the rest of the globe. They couldn’t give a crap about responsibility they are “FEE INCOME” focused and a rate hike loosens the strings to enable them to get more creative in fees and in so doing enhance their bottom lines.\r\n\r\nYou also have to consider from the BOC perspective that they must keep a margin in interest rate policy in line with of the USA. The FED are raising perhaps 3 times in 2018, Poloz cannot afford for the gap to widen.\r\n\r\nThe curve ball of NAFTA has been thrown on the table. If the US decides to withdraw they have to give six months’ notice in writing despite what TRUMP says. Even then, the negotiations can still go on. So, it’s not as black and white as TRUMP would have us all believe.\r\n\r\nCanadian Household debt is the highest of the G10 and at record levels. Banks in Canada have said its nothing to worry about, well they would say that wouldn’t they!\r\n\r\nThe BOC do NOT like this.\r\n\r\nGiven interest rate margins vis-à-vis the US and Household Debt, I can see the BOC raising, killing two birds with one stone, so to speak.\r\n\r\nIt will be about the language in the statement regarding clues on more rate hikes in 2018 that will really set the fire under the CAD. We have a Press Conference as well. It is a bit of “A Chaps In The City” approach, not as bad as the RBNZ, but Poloz is not as guarded on language as Mario Draghi so we will need to follow this as well.\r\n\r\nIf they (BOC) do not raise rates the USD/CAD will be back at 1.2900 very quickly. If they do raise rates, the BOC has gotten great bang for its buck in the past on rate hikes in 2017, circa. $0.04 cents per 0.25% hike!\r\n\r\nSo, with that said what I am thinking…?\r\n\r\nThe first issue is the “SHITHOLE” fallout. Buckets load of USD were sold on Friday afternoon into the close of the week. Usually, I would say that there should be a pullback because across many, many pair we are grossly over bought / oversold and the DXY is oversold.\r\n\r\nSo, at the start of the trading week be prepared. It all depends on how this story progresses over the weekend. The DXY could go extreme lower and then the snap back could be vicious.\r\n\r\nIt is impossible to say what the reaction will be at next week’s open and trading will be very thin.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nObviously, the CAD will be a currency to focus on. My hopes are that we get a spike that I can short into. I will probably layer in limit orders for spikes on USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nGiven the BOJ news I am not going to look to trade the CAD/JPY even though there is a nice potentially well-paying Head and Shoulders pattern available. I am set up with NZD/CAD already and if I were to add another pair to the suggested ones it would be either EUR/CAD or GBP/CAD. I will decide nearer to Wednesday.\r\n\r\nAUD jobs data is the same day as the BOC therefore I would probably not consider the AUD on the back of the CAD data.\r\n\r\nI think the currency to focus on this week is probably the JPY. We have actually confirmed news from the BOJ that affects their monetary policy stance moving forward.\r\n\r\nThe USD itself, I have been shying away from a little given TRUMP and his nonsense. When you have the USD weakening across the board it does make it harder to choose the JPY cross to single out apart from the USD/JPY itself.\r\n\r\nI would be looking at the commodity crosses especially the AUD/JPY, NOK/JPY and NZD/JPY. In addition, the EUR/JPY should NOT be ignored.\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts on the back of the BOJ starting to move away from an accommodative approach is USD/JPY to 108.00, probably even a greater unwind.\r\n\r\nSo, selling JPY strength is the trade maybe to focus on this week.\r\n\r\nOn an associated point. Volumes / liquidity are still not brilliant at certain times. The market is transitional at the moment for a variety of reasons.\r\n\r\nI am NOT a believer that the Asian market is good for FX. Liquidity is just getting lower and lower, year by year and the vast majority of times, Asian moves are reversed in Europe if liquidity is poor. European trading offers much better liquidity to give moves that stick and are directional.\r\n\r\nTherefore, here’s a tip. If you are trading, trade only the following times when liquidity will be at its highest: 8.00AM EST to NOON EST. This may not always be possible but it is without doubt the best time to trade.\r\n\r\nIn addition, be extremely careful with cross rates as they will be the first to suffer from the lower liquidity periods in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:3. USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with MY BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10752\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"886\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:4. USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLooks bullish to me, but with a caveat.\r\n\r\nSome major moves took place last Friday in particular. Two pieces of news. The rather HAWKISH ECB minutes last Thursday followed by Merkel progressing well in Germany vis-à-vis her coalition formation.\r\n\r\nCaution…\r\n\r\nWiedmann tried his best to halt the single currencies strength by stating that the path to normalization will be a long, long road. After quoting Tom Petty, the EUR/USD sank a little. I think what we must consider here is that ALL the crosses are moving in tandem.\r\n\r\nObviously looking forward there is strong support at 1.1915 and for me we have to break 1.2200 convincingly to see the bulls get a grip. Maybe the “STITHOLE” comments are that catalyst?\r\n\r\nLooking forward, I think that the EUR/USD will strengthen in 2018, but to quote Tom Petty it will be “A long, long road”, and I do not see too much Free Fallin’ in 2018!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10763\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nThunderbirds are go!\r\n\r\nThe Spanish and the Dutch have somewhat broken ranks with the EU27 by stating they think the Brits should have a soft BREXIT.\r\n\r\nGood Lord how much dosh was in that brown paper bag that changed hands? But hang on it was later DENIED!... more FAKE NEWS. The damage was already done as the already perky GBP remained perky.\r\n\r\nThis is a “BUY THE DIP” currency trade in my opinion. The only caveat I have is that always remember as well as good BREXIT news, this pair is always seconds away from a 100 drop on bad BREXIT news.\r\n\r\nThe Cup and Handle pattern on the chart below is in play.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10764\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\nWe are in triangle pattern and this pair is up against trend line resistance. My thoughts are that it will push stops and then fall back.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10762\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nAt the moment, this pair is screwing with longer-term strategy. It is in an ascending wedge pattern it has exposed itself beyond trend line resistance and fell back. But, it has not fallen back as strongly as I had thought it would. This probably has more to do with a weak USD than it has with a strong NZD.\r\n\r\nThat aside, it is well over bought and I think it will eventually turn lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10765\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nI have written a lot about this pair. Fundamentally I believe its path is lower towards 1.2000 and even lower this year.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10766\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nI can see this pair at 0.9450 or even lower if the single currency really breaks higher towards 1.3000.\r\n\r\nFor now, we should look at trend lows of circa.9700, maybe back to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.9650.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10767\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nThe JPY is the currency to keep a close eye on moving forward. Below 110.80 it could turn nasty for this pair and cascade lower towards my initial target of 108.00.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ adjusting monetary policy is huge and definitive news not FAKE that we as traders can work with. There is no need to rush at this as 2018 could be the year that the BOJ starts a lot of unwinding. Very interesting times and lots of pips up for grabs in my opinion.\r\n\r\nI am viewing this currency as a bonus in 2018. As far as I was concerned trading the JPY in 2018 was going to be a none event. That plan has now changed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10768\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS and LONGER-TERM TRADE SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. MY TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.2. LONG TERM CORE TRADES SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FINAL SHOTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5:1. WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> <u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5:2. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #265 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 13th January 2018', 'OOPS, I DID IT AGAIN…  TRUMP SENDS USD TO THE SH*THOLE', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'oops-trump-sends-usd-shthole', '', '', '2018-01-13 09:17:33', '2018-01-13 14:17:33', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10771', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(10772, 1, '2018-01-13 09:14:33', '2018-01-13 14:14:33', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>THE OPENING SHOT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt’s back (THE DRIVE THRU) and I am back!\r\n\r\nWelcome to the first “DRIVE THRU” blog of 2018.\r\n\r\nI have been at my screens for about the last 6/7 trading days and although I am “full-time”, I am gradually easing myself back to full speed.\r\n\r\nOver the Christmas break, in addition to TV bingeing, the odd drop of wine, Jack Daniels and entertaining guests, I spent time looking at my screens checking levels on both weekly and monthly charts so that I could formulate my Q1 and Q2 longer-term position trades into my H1 TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nOf mice and men all the best laid plans\r\n\r\n(My mother was Scottish and she would often say “The best laid schemes o’ Mice an” Men…quoting Rabbie Burns, The Baird of Ayrshire).\r\n\r\nGood God, education in my blog…..!\r\n\r\nAnyway, of mice and men etc…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday was a big day for FX from my perspective, there was a lot to take in and digest.\r\n\r\nHowever, on Friday…\r\n\r\n“Oops I Did It Again”, another heavily witnessed TRUMP gaffe.\r\n\r\nDespite his claims, you just know he said what he is quoted as saying because following the headlines he selected an area he didn’t say it about and focusses on that. Let me elaborate….\r\n\r\nHe singled out African countries and Africa as a SHITHOLE. He then tweets about it by saying I never said that or used that language about Haiti. He picks a different area to focus on. Now, I wasn’t there but this defence he uses is standard deflection from the narrative to try and take the heat off. He must think we are all a gang of fecking idiots not to see he does the same thing over and over again. Will he get a censure? God knows. Will it stop him? God knows. In the grand scheme of things, he probably couldn’t give a rat’s ass.\r\n\r\nAnyhow the “SHITHOLE” comments just encouraged more sellers of the USD into the market and on Friday afternoon there was basically an exodus. The USD is in the “SHITHOLE” never mind anything else. Next week will be very interesting.\r\n\r\nHowever, prior to this which took place on Friday last week…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday, some macro news involving China reviewing its policy of holding US Debt, certainly placed the cat amongst the pigeons, or as my wife and I prefer as an alternative, it’s like placing Ozzy (Our boy Labrador almost 7 years old, but still a puppy) in a Pet Shop with dog treats on low level shelving. Give him 5 minutes alone, and brace yourself for the outcome -  if you have a Labrador, you will understand.\r\n\r\nI digress…\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nThe move by China, was in fact maybe NOT 100% accurate. Was it all nothing more than posturing?\r\n\r\nThe State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which is China’s FX Manager, 24 hours after BLOOMBERG news broke the headline, retorted;” In our opinion, the news may have quoted the wrong source of information, or it may be false news”\r\n\r\nWell there you have it… clear as fecking mud. “Maybe this, maybe that, maybe my fecking arse!!”\r\n\r\nHowever, the news was believed and still is today to some extent by the markets. For good measure on the same day we also had a JPY short squeeze. This was on the back of the BOJ making a change in its monetary policy, by announcing that it is reducing the amount of long-term bonds it is buying.\r\n\r\nThe upshot of this was, it affected a lot of my open trades. You can imagine my thoughts… here we go again etc.\r\n\r\nSo, mid-morning last Wednesday I started to look at my H1 strategy looking to re-think my attitude to RISK moving forward. Not a major re-think but a bit more thought on the amount I want to have at RISK.\r\n\r\nDid it end there last Wednesday?\r\n\r\nOf course, not… in for a penny in for a pound!\r\n\r\nOne of my CORE POSITIONS for 2018 was blown out of the water with a 400-pip loss across 4 trades; the CAD.\r\n\r\nThe same day, but now my afternoon, a Canadian source close to the CAD negotiators was quoted as stating that the CAD negotiators felt that the TRUMP administration were about to withdraw from the NAFTA agreement. Jesus, Mary and Joseph another damn vicious spike and drop. Luckily, I only took a 400-pip hit it could have been much worse. I was on a webinar at the time and saw the move light up. I exited everything CAD in a matter of moments.\r\n\r\nAt the time, I wondered had I been too hasty closing all trades. Had I not intervened, stops with USD/CAD trades would have been taken, but CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I could have left. I reacted very fast and quickly took the view that as the CAD/JPY was upside down anyhow as a result of the BOJ change in policy, and that was my biggest loss to cover my entire CAD exposure. I saw the words NAFTA on Tweet deck. The move for a NAFTA withdraw could be 200-300 pips of CAD weakness in my opinion… cut and run, head for the hills for me.\r\n\r\nSo; it felt as if my turkey hadn’t even fully digested and we were off again, with more FX volatility over “FAKE NEWS!” 2018 started where 2017 had left off.\r\n\r\nNAFTA news DENIED by the White House. China news gets a guarded DENIAL from the Chinese authorities. What can you do? All I could do was focus on the JPY strength as that was REAL BOJ NEWS!\r\n\r\nIronically, my iTunes was playing a Neil Young song from the album Time Fades Away, titled “Don’t Be Denied”. How fitting given all the denials!\r\n\r\nI never had the BOJ changing monetary policy in my plans for 2018 at all. My initial thoughts in hearing the change of policy were: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The “BUY THE DIP” mentality with equities may not be a full-time feature of US equities moving forward, especially with an ever-closer looming trade war with China.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD/JPY below 108.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Sell JPY across the board especially AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn the first week of trading in 2018, FX traders were thrown 3 curve balls. If I had any thoughts it would be a sleepy city start to 2018, dream on.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough to contend with, TRUMP did it again.\r\n\r\nI have updated a few sections within this blog and once again had a review of the content and my focus group on exactly what I want to deliver via this blog.\r\n\r\nVery simply put, it is Market commentary on the FX market, from mostly a Fundamental viewpoint and of course it is delivered in my own words, my own thoughts and my own views in my own style.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to hope that readers who are not subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE like my approach and make the leap of faith and subscribe. The blog is a selling tool but it is also a vehicle that that allows me to take a step back and focus in a structured way on what is on the horizon.\r\n\r\nTo complete this section, this week…\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just starting, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” which is available until January 31st, 2018.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one year complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING LAST WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10761\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018-1024x878.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"878\" /></a>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THIS WEEK’S OVERVIEW and OPPORTUNITIES:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u> </u><u> 3:1. THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10750\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018-1024x821.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:2. MY THOUGHTS ON HOW TO TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime piece of data on the agenda this week that has caught my eye, from a MUST TRADE perspective:\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC Interest Rate Decision and the Stephen Poloz Press Conference:</u>\r\n\r\nMake no mistake about it, this is a biggie.\r\n\r\nWe have most if not all of the Canadian Banks looking for an interest rate hike this week. Not for one minute do I believe their interest is based around the Canadian Economy. These institutions in Canada are NOT like what they are around the rest of the globe. They couldn’t give a crap about responsibility they are “FEE INCOME” focused and a rate hike loosens the strings to enable them to get more creative in fees and in so doing enhance their bottom lines.\r\n\r\nYou also have to consider from the BOC perspective that they must keep a margin in interest rate policy in line with of the USA. The FED are raising perhaps 3 times in 2018, Poloz cannot afford for the gap to widen.\r\n\r\nThe curve ball of NAFTA has been thrown on the table. If the US decides to withdraw they have to give six months’ notice in writing despite what TRUMP says. Even then, the negotiations can still go on. So, it’s not as black and white as TRUMP would have us all believe.\r\n\r\nCanadian Household debt is the highest of the G10 and at record levels. Banks in Canada have said its nothing to worry about, well they would say that wouldn’t they!\r\n\r\nThe BOC do NOT like this.\r\n\r\nGiven interest rate margins vis-à-vis the US and Household Debt, I can see the BOC raising, killing two birds with one stone, so to speak.\r\n\r\nIt will be about the language in the statement regarding clues on more rate hikes in 2018 that will really set the fire under the CAD. We have a Press Conference as well. It is a bit of “A Chaps In The City” approach, not as bad as the RBNZ, but Poloz is not as guarded on language as Mario Draghi so we will need to follow this as well.\r\n\r\nIf they (BOC) do not raise rates the USD/CAD will be back at 1.2900 very quickly. If they do raise rates, the BOC has gotten great bang for its buck in the past on rate hikes in 2017, circa. $0.04 cents per 0.25% hike!\r\n\r\nSo, with that said what I am thinking…?\r\n\r\nThe first issue is the “SHITHOLE” fallout. Buckets load of USD were sold on Friday afternoon into the close of the week. Usually, I would say that there should be a pullback because across many, many pair we are grossly over bought / oversold and the DXY is oversold.\r\n\r\nSo, at the start of the trading week be prepared. It all depends on how this story progresses over the weekend. The DXY could go extreme lower and then the snap back could be vicious.\r\n\r\nIt is impossible to say what the reaction will be at next week’s open and trading will be very thin.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nObviously, the CAD will be a currency to focus on. My hopes are that we get a spike that I can short into. I will probably layer in limit orders for spikes on USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nGiven the BOJ news I am not going to look to trade the CAD/JPY even though there is a nice potentially well-paying Head and Shoulders pattern available. I am set up with NZD/CAD already and if I were to add another pair to the suggested ones it would be either EUR/CAD or GBP/CAD. I will decide nearer to Wednesday.\r\n\r\nAUD jobs data is the same day as the BOC therefore I would probably not consider the AUD on the back of the CAD data.\r\n\r\nI think the currency to focus on this week is probably the JPY. We have actually confirmed news from the BOJ that affects their monetary policy stance moving forward.\r\n\r\nThe USD itself, I have been shying away from a little given TRUMP and his nonsense. When you have the USD weakening across the board it does make it harder to choose the JPY cross to single out apart from the USD/JPY itself.\r\n\r\nI would be looking at the commodity crosses especially the AUD/JPY, NOK/JPY and NZD/JPY. In addition, the EUR/JPY should NOT be ignored.\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts on the back of the BOJ starting to move away from an accommodative approach is USD/JPY to 108.00, probably even a greater unwind.\r\n\r\nSo, selling JPY strength is the trade maybe to focus on this week.\r\n\r\nOn an associated point. Volumes / liquidity are still not brilliant at certain times. The market is transitional at the moment for a variety of reasons.\r\n\r\nI am NOT a believer that the Asian market is good for FX. Liquidity is just getting lower and lower, year by year and the vast majority of times, Asian moves are reversed in Europe if liquidity is poor. European trading offers much better liquidity to give moves that stick and are directional.\r\n\r\nTherefore, here’s a tip. If you are trading, trade only the following times when liquidity will be at its highest: 8.00AM EST to NOON EST. This may not always be possible but it is without doubt the best time to trade.\r\n\r\nIn addition, be extremely careful with cross rates as they will be the first to suffer from the lower liquidity periods in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:3. USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with MY BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10752\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"886\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:4. USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nLooks bullish to me, but with a caveat.\r\n\r\nSome major moves took place last Friday in particular. Two pieces of news. The rather HAWKISH ECB minutes last Thursday followed by Merkel progressing well in Germany vis-à-vis her coalition formation.\r\n\r\nCaution…\r\n\r\nWiedmann tried his best to halt the single currencies strength by stating that the path to normalization will be a long, long road. After quoting Tom Petty, the EUR/USD sank a little. I think what we must consider here is that ALL the crosses are moving in tandem.\r\n\r\nObviously looking forward there is strong support at 1.1915 and for me we have to break 1.2200 convincingly to see the bulls get a grip. Maybe the “STITHOLE” comments are that catalyst?\r\n\r\nLooking forward, I think that the EUR/USD will strengthen in 2018, but to quote Tom Petty it will be “A long, long road”, and I do not see too much Free Fallin’ in 2018!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10763\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nThunderbirds are go!\r\n\r\nThe Spanish and the Dutch have somewhat broken ranks with the EU27 by stating they think the Brits should have a soft BREXIT.\r\n\r\nGood Lord how much dosh was in that brown paper bag that changed hands? But hang on it was later DENIED!... more FAKE NEWS. The damage was already done as the already perky GBP remained perky.\r\n\r\nThis is a “BUY THE DIP” currency trade in my opinion. The only caveat I have is that always remember as well as good BREXIT news, this pair is always seconds away from a 100 drop on bad BREXIT news.\r\n\r\nThe Cup and Handle pattern on the chart below is in play.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10764\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\nWe are in triangle pattern and this pair is up against trend line resistance. My thoughts are that it will push stops and then fall back.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10762\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nAt the moment, this pair is screwing with longer-term strategy. It is in an ascending wedge pattern it has exposed itself beyond trend line resistance and fell back. But, it has not fallen back as strongly as I had thought it would. This probably has more to do with a weak USD than it has with a strong NZD.\r\n\r\nThat aside, it is well over bought and I think it will eventually turn lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10765\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nI have written a lot about this pair. Fundamentally I believe its path is lower towards 1.2000 and even lower this year.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10766\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nI can see this pair at 0.9450 or even lower if the single currency really breaks higher towards 1.3000.\r\n\r\nFor now, we should look at trend lows of circa.9700, maybe back to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.9650.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10767\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nThe JPY is the currency to keep a close eye on moving forward. Below 110.80 it could turn nasty for this pair and cascade lower towards my initial target of 108.00.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ adjusting monetary policy is huge and definitive news not FAKE that we as traders can work with. There is no need to rush at this as 2018 could be the year that the BOJ starts a lot of unwinding. Very interesting times and lots of pips up for grabs in my opinion.\r\n\r\nI am viewing this currency as a bonus in 2018. As far as I was concerned trading the JPY in 2018 was going to be a none event. That plan has now changed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10768\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS and LONGER-TERM TRADE SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. MY TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.2. LONG TERM CORE TRADES SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINAL SHOTS</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5:1. WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> <u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5:2. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #265 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 13th January 2018', 'OOPS, I DID IT AGAIN…  TRUMP SENDS USD TO THE SH*THOLE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10771-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-01-13 09:14:33', '2018-01-13 14:14:33', '', 10771, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10771-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10773, 1, '2018-01-13 09:16:12', '2018-01-13 14:16:12', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE OPENING SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt’s back (THE DRIVE THRU) and I am back!\r\n\r\nWelcome to the first “DRIVE THRU” blog of 2018.\r\n\r\nI have been at my screens for about the last 6/7 trading days and although I am “full-time”, I am gradually easing myself back to full speed.\r\n\r\nOver the Christmas break, in addition to TV bingeing, the odd drop of wine, Jack Daniels and entertaining guests, I spent time looking at my screens checking levels on both weekly and monthly charts so that I could formulate my Q1 and Q2 longer-term position trades into my H1 TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nOf mice and men all the best laid plans\r\n\r\n(My mother was Scottish and she would often say “The best laid schemes o’ Mice an” Men…quoting Rabbie Burns, The Baird of Ayrshire).\r\n\r\nGood God, education in my blog…..!\r\n\r\nAnyway, of mice and men etc…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday was a big day for FX from my perspective, there was a lot to take in and digest.\r\n\r\nHowever, on Friday…\r\n\r\n“Oops I Did It Again”, another heavily witnessed TRUMP gaffe.\r\n\r\nDespite his claims, you just know he said what he is quoted as saying because following the headlines he selected an area he didn’t say it about and focusses on that. Let me elaborate….\r\n\r\nHe singled out African countries and Africa as a SHITHOLE. He then tweets about it by saying I never said that or used that language about Haiti. He picks a different area to focus on. Now, I wasn’t there but this defence he uses is standard deflection from the narrative to try and take the heat off. He must think we are all a gang of fecking idiots not to see he does the same thing over and over again. Will he get a censure? God knows. Will it stop him? God knows. In the grand scheme of things, he probably couldn’t give a rat’s ass.\r\n\r\nAnyhow the “SHITHOLE” comments just encouraged more sellers of the USD into the market and on Friday afternoon there was basically an exodus. The USD is in the “SHITHOLE” never mind anything else. Next week will be very interesting.\r\n\r\nHowever, prior to this which took place on Friday last week…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday, some macro news involving China reviewing its policy of holding US Debt, certainly placed the cat amongst the pigeons, or as my wife and I prefer as an alternative, it’s like placing Ozzy (Our boy Labrador almost 7 years old, but still a puppy) in a Pet Shop with dog treats on low level shelving. Give him 5 minutes alone, and brace yourself for the outcome -  if you have a Labrador, you will understand.\r\n\r\nI digress…\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nThe move by China, was in fact maybe NOT 100% accurate. Was it all nothing more than posturing?\r\n\r\nThe State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which is China’s FX Manager, 24 hours after BLOOMBERG news broke the headline, retorted;” In our opinion, the news may have quoted the wrong source of information, or it may be false news”\r\n\r\nWell there you have it… clear as fecking mud. “Maybe this, maybe that, maybe my fecking arse!!”\r\n\r\nHowever, the news was believed and still is today to some extent by the markets. For good measure on the same day we also had a JPY short squeeze. This was on the back of the BOJ making a change in its monetary policy, by announcing that it is reducing the amount of long-term bonds it is buying.\r\n\r\nThe upshot of this was, it affected a lot of my open trades. You can imagine my thoughts… here we go again etc.\r\n\r\nSo, mid-morning last Wednesday I started to look at my H1 strategy looking to re-think my attitude to RISK moving forward. Not a major re-think but a bit more thought on the amount I want to have at RISK.\r\n\r\nDid it end there last Wednesday?\r\n\r\nOf course, not… in for a penny in for a pound!\r\n\r\nOne of my CORE POSITIONS for 2018 was blown out of the water with a 400-pip loss across 4 trades; the CAD.\r\n\r\nThe same day, but now my afternoon, a Canadian source close to the CAD negotiators was quoted as stating that the CAD negotiators felt that the TRUMP administration were about to withdraw from the NAFTA agreement. Jesus, Mary and Joseph another damn vicious spike and drop. Luckily, I only took a 400-pip hit it could have been much worse. I was on a webinar at the time and saw the move light up. I exited everything CAD in a matter of moments.\r\n\r\nAt the time, I wondered had I been too hasty closing all trades. Had I not intervened, stops with USD/CAD trades would have been taken, but CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I could have left. I reacted very fast and quickly took the view that as the CAD/JPY was upside down anyhow as a result of the BOJ change in policy, and that was my biggest loss to cover my entire CAD exposure. I saw the words NAFTA on Tweet deck. The move for a NAFTA withdraw could be 200-300 pips of CAD weakness in my opinion… cut and run, head for the hills for me.\r\n\r\nSo; it felt as if my turkey hadn’t even fully digested and we were off again, with more FX volatility over “FAKE NEWS!” 2018 started where 2017 had left off.\r\n\r\nNAFTA news DENIED by the White House. China news gets a guarded DENIAL from the Chinese authorities. What can you do? All I could do was focus on the JPY strength as that was REAL BOJ NEWS!\r\n\r\nIronically, my iTunes was playing a Neil Young song from the album Time Fades Away, titled “Don’t Be Denied”. How fitting given all the denials!\r\n\r\nI never had the BOJ changing monetary policy in my plans for 2018 at all. My initial thoughts in hearing the change of policy were: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The “BUY THE DIP” mentality with equities may not be a full-time feature of US equities moving forward, especially with an ever-closer looming trade war with China.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD/JPY below 108.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Sell JPY across the board especially AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn the first week of trading in 2018, FX traders were thrown 3 curve balls. If I had any thoughts it would be a sleepy city start to 2018, dream on.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough to contend with, TRUMP did it again.\r\n\r\nI have updated a few sections within this blog and once again had a review of the content and my focus group on exactly what I want to deliver via this blog.\r\n\r\nVery simply put, it is Market commentary on the FX market, from mostly a Fundamental viewpoint and of course it is delivered in my own words, my own thoughts and my own views in my own style.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to hope that readers who are not subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE like my approach and make the leap of faith and subscribe. The blog is a selling tool but it is also a vehicle that that allows me to take a step back and focus in a structured way on what is on the horizon.\r\n\r\nTo complete this section, this week…\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just starting, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” which is available until January 31st, 2018.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one year complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING LAST WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10761\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018-1024x878.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"878\" /></a>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THIS WEEK’S OVERVIEW and OPPORTUNITIES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u> </u><u> 3:1. THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10750\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018-1024x821.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:2. MY THOUGHTS ON HOW TO TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime piece of data on the agenda this week that has caught my eye, from a MUST TRADE perspective:\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC Interest Rate Decision and the Stephen Poloz Press Conference:</u>\r\n\r\nMake no mistake about it, this is a biggie.\r\n\r\nWe have most if not all of the Canadian Banks looking for an interest rate hike this week. Not for one minute do I believe their interest is based around the Canadian Economy. These institutions in Canada are NOT like what they are around the rest of the globe. They couldn’t give a crap about responsibility they are “FEE INCOME” focused and a rate hike loosens the strings to enable them to get more creative in fees and in so doing enhance their bottom lines.\r\n\r\nYou also have to consider from the BOC perspective that they must keep a margin in interest rate policy in line with of the USA. The FED are raising perhaps 3 times in 2018, Poloz cannot afford for the gap to widen.\r\n\r\nThe curve ball of NAFTA has been thrown on the table. If the US decides to withdraw they have to give six months’ notice in writing despite what TRUMP says. Even then, the negotiations can still go on. So, it’s not as black and white as TRUMP would have us all believe.\r\n\r\nCanadian Household debt is the highest of the G10 and at record levels. Banks in Canada have said its nothing to worry about, well they would say that wouldn’t they!\r\n\r\nThe BOC do NOT like this.\r\n\r\nGiven interest rate margins vis-à-vis the US and Household Debt, I can see the BOC raising, killing two birds with one stone, so to speak.\r\n\r\nIt will be about the language in the statement regarding clues on more rate hikes in 2018 that will really set the fire under the CAD. We have a Press Conference as well. It is a bit of “A Chaps In The City” approach, not as bad as the RBNZ, but Poloz is not as guarded on language as Mario Draghi so we will need to follow this as well.\r\n\r\nIf they (BOC) do not raise rates the USD/CAD will be back at 1.2900 very quickly. If they do raise rates, the BOC has gotten great bang for its buck in the past on rate hikes in 2017, circa. $0.04 cents per 0.25% hike!\r\n\r\nSo, with that said what I am thinking…?\r\n\r\nThe first issue is the “SHITHOLE” fallout. Buckets load of USD were sold on Friday afternoon into the close of the week. Usually, I would say that there should be a pullback because across many, many pair we are grossly over bought / oversold and the DXY is oversold.\r\n\r\nSo, at the start of the trading week be prepared. It all depends on how this story progresses over the weekend. The DXY could go extreme lower and then the snap back could be vicious.\r\n\r\nIt is impossible to say what the reaction will be at next week’s open and trading will be very thin.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nObviously, the CAD will be a currency to focus on. My hopes are that we get a spike that I can short into. I will probably layer in limit orders for spikes on USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nGiven the BOJ news I am not going to look to trade the CAD/JPY even though there is a nice potentially well-paying Head and Shoulders pattern available. I am set up with NZD/CAD already and if I were to add another pair to the suggested ones it would be either EUR/CAD or GBP/CAD. I will decide nearer to Wednesday.\r\n\r\nAUD jobs data is the same day as the BOC therefore I would probably not consider the AUD on the back of the CAD data.\r\n\r\nI think the currency to focus on this week is probably the JPY. We have actually confirmed news from the BOJ that affects their monetary policy stance moving forward.\r\n\r\nThe USD itself, I have been shying away from a little given TRUMP and his nonsense. When you have the USD weakening across the board it does make it harder to choose the JPY cross to single out apart from the USD/JPY itself.\r\n\r\nI would be looking at the commodity crosses especially the AUD/JPY, NOK/JPY and NZD/JPY. In addition, the EUR/JPY should NOT be ignored.\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts on the back of the BOJ starting to move away from an accommodative approach is USD/JPY to 108.00, probably even a greater unwind.\r\n\r\nSo, selling JPY strength is the trade maybe to focus on this week.\r\n\r\nOn an associated point. Volumes / liquidity are still not brilliant at certain times. The market is transitional at the moment for a variety of reasons.\r\n\r\nI am NOT a believer that the Asian market is good for FX. Liquidity is just getting lower and lower, year by year and the vast majority of times, Asian moves are reversed in Europe if liquidity is poor. European trading offers much better liquidity to give moves that stick and are directional.\r\n\r\nTherefore, here’s a tip. If you are trading, trade only the following times when liquidity will be at its highest: 8.00AM EST to NOON EST. This may not always be possible but it is without doubt the best time to trade.\r\n\r\nIn addition, be extremely careful with cross rates as they will be the first to suffer from the lower liquidity periods in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:3. USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with MY BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10752\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"886\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:4. USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLooks bullish to me, but with a caveat.\r\n\r\nSome major moves took place last Friday in particular. Two pieces of news. The rather HAWKISH ECB minutes last Thursday followed by Merkel progressing well in Germany vis-à-vis her coalition formation.\r\n\r\nCaution…\r\n\r\nWiedmann tried his best to halt the single currencies strength by stating that the path to normalization will be a long, long road. After quoting Tom Petty, the EUR/USD sank a little. I think what we must consider here is that ALL the crosses are moving in tandem.\r\n\r\nObviously looking forward there is strong support at 1.1915 and for me we have to break 1.2200 convincingly to see the bulls get a grip. Maybe the “STITHOLE” comments are that catalyst?\r\n\r\nLooking forward, I think that the EUR/USD will strengthen in 2018, but to quote Tom Petty it will be “A long, long road”, and I do not see too much Free Fallin’ in 2018!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10763\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nThunderbirds are go!\r\n\r\nThe Spanish and the Dutch have somewhat broken ranks with the EU27 by stating they think the Brits should have a soft BREXIT.\r\n\r\nGood Lord how much dosh was in that brown paper bag that changed hands? But hang on it was later DENIED!... more FAKE NEWS. The damage was already done as the already perky GBP remained perky.\r\n\r\nThis is a “BUY THE DIP” currency trade in my opinion. The only caveat I have is that always remember as well as good BREXIT news, this pair is always seconds away from a 100 drop on bad BREXIT news.\r\n\r\nThe Cup and Handle pattern on the chart below is in play.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10764\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\nWe are in triangle pattern and this pair is up against trend line resistance. My thoughts are that it will push stops and then fall back.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10762\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nAt the moment, this pair is screwing with longer-term strategy. It is in an ascending wedge pattern it has exposed itself beyond trend line resistance and fell back. But, it has not fallen back as strongly as I had thought it would. This probably has more to do with a weak USD than it has with a strong NZD.\r\n\r\nThat aside, it is well over bought and I think it will eventually turn lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10765\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nI have written a lot about this pair. Fundamentally I believe its path is lower towards 1.2000 and even lower this year.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10766\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nI can see this pair at 0.9450 or even lower if the single currency really breaks higher towards 1.3000.\r\n\r\nFor now, we should look at trend lows of circa.9700, maybe back to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.9650.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10767\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nThe JPY is the currency to keep a close eye on moving forward. Below 110.80 it could turn nasty for this pair and cascade lower towards my initial target of 108.00.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ adjusting monetary policy is huge and definitive news not FAKE that we as traders can work with. There is no need to rush at this as 2018 could be the year that the BOJ starts a lot of unwinding. Very interesting times and lots of pips up for grabs in my opinion.\r\n\r\nI am viewing this currency as a bonus in 2018. As far as I was concerned trading the JPY in 2018 was going to be a none event. That plan has now changed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10768\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS and LONGER-TERM TRADE SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. MY TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.2. LONG TERM CORE TRADES SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FINAL SHOTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5:1. WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> <u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5:2. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #265 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 13th January 2018', 'OOPS, I DID IT AGAIN…  TRUMP SENDS USD TO THE SH*THOLE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10771-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-01-13 09:16:12', '2018-01-13 14:16:12', '', 10771, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10771-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(10774, 1, '2018-01-13 09:17:33', '2018-01-13 14:17:33', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE OPENING SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt’s back (THE DRIVE THRU) and I am back!\r\n\r\nWelcome to the first “DRIVE THRU” blog of 2018.\r\n\r\nI have been at my screens for about the last 6/7 trading days and although I am “full-time”, I am gradually easing myself back to full speed.\r\n\r\nOver the Christmas break, in addition to TV bingeing, the odd drop of wine, Jack Daniels and entertaining guests, I spent time looking at my screens checking levels on both weekly and monthly charts so that I could formulate my Q1 and Q2 longer-term position trades into my H1 TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nOf mice and men all the best laid plans\r\n\r\n(My mother was Scottish and she would often say “The best laid schemes o’ Mice an” Men…quoting Rabbie Burns, The Baird of Ayrshire).\r\n\r\nGood God, education in my blog…..!\r\n\r\nAnyway, of mice and men etc…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday was a big day for FX from my perspective, there was a lot to take in and digest.\r\n\r\nHowever, on Friday…\r\n\r\n“Oops I Did It Again”, another heavily witnessed TRUMP gaffe.\r\n\r\nDespite his claims, you just know he said what he is quoted as saying because following the headlines he selected an area he didn’t say it about and focusses on that. Let me elaborate….\r\n\r\nHe singled out African countries and Africa as a SHITHOLE. He then tweets about it by saying I never said that or used that language about Haiti. He picks a different area to focus on. Now, I wasn’t there but this defence he uses is standard deflection from the narrative to try and take the heat off. He must think we are all a gang of fecking idiots not to see he does the same thing over and over again. Will he get a censure? God knows. Will it stop him? God knows. In the grand scheme of things, he probably couldn’t give a rat’s ass.\r\n\r\nAnyhow the “SHITHOLE” comments just encouraged more sellers of the USD into the market and on Friday afternoon there was basically an exodus. The USD is in the “SHITHOLE” never mind anything else. Next week will be very interesting.\r\n\r\nHowever, prior to this which took place on Friday last week…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday, some macro news involving China reviewing its policy of holding US Debt, certainly placed the cat amongst the pigeons, or as my wife and I prefer as an alternative, it’s like placing Ozzy (Our boy Labrador almost 7 years old, but still a puppy) in a Pet Shop with dog treats on low level shelving. Give him 5 minutes alone, and brace yourself for the outcome -  if you have a Labrador, you will understand.\r\n\r\nI digress…\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nThe move by China, was in fact maybe NOT 100% accurate. Was it all nothing more than posturing?\r\n\r\nThe State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which is China’s FX Manager, 24 hours after BLOOMBERG news broke the headline, retorted;” In our opinion, the news may have quoted the wrong source of information, or it may be false news”\r\n\r\nWell there you have it… clear as fecking mud. “Maybe this, maybe that, maybe my fecking arse!!”\r\n\r\nHowever, the news was believed and still is today to some extent by the markets. For good measure on the same day we also had a JPY short squeeze. This was on the back of the BOJ making a change in its monetary policy, by announcing that it is reducing the amount of long-term bonds it is buying.\r\n\r\nThe upshot of this was, it affected a lot of my open trades. You can imagine my thoughts… here we go again etc.\r\n\r\nSo, mid-morning last Wednesday I started to look at my H1 strategy looking to re-think my attitude to RISK moving forward. Not a major re-think but a bit more thought on the amount I want to have at RISK.\r\n\r\nDid it end there last Wednesday?\r\n\r\nOf course, not… in for a penny in for a pound!\r\n\r\nOne of my CORE POSITIONS for 2018 was blown out of the water with a 400-pip loss across 4 trades; the CAD.\r\n\r\nThe same day, but now my afternoon, a Canadian source close to the CAD negotiators was quoted as stating that the CAD negotiators felt that the TRUMP administration were about to withdraw from the NAFTA agreement. Jesus, Mary and Joseph another damn vicious spike and drop. Luckily, I only took a 400-pip hit it could have been much worse. I was on a webinar at the time and saw the move light up. I exited everything CAD in a matter of moments.\r\n\r\nAt the time, I wondered had I been too hasty closing all trades. Had I not intervened, stops with USD/CAD trades would have been taken, but CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I could have left. I reacted very fast and quickly took the view that as the CAD/JPY was upside down anyhow as a result of the BOJ change in policy, and that was my biggest loss to cover my entire CAD exposure. I saw the words NAFTA on Tweet deck. The move for a NAFTA withdraw could be 200-300 pips of CAD weakness in my opinion… cut and run, head for the hills for me.\r\n\r\nSo; it felt as if my turkey hadn’t even fully digested and we were off again, with more FX volatility over “FAKE NEWS!” 2018 started where 2017 had left off.\r\n\r\nNAFTA news DENIED by the White House. China news gets a guarded DENIAL from the Chinese authorities. What can you do? All I could do was focus on the JPY strength as that was REAL BOJ NEWS!\r\n\r\nIronically, my iTunes was playing a Neil Young song from the album Time Fades Away, titled “Don’t Be Denied”. How fitting given all the denials!\r\n\r\nI never had the BOJ changing monetary policy in my plans for 2018 at all. My initial thoughts in hearing the change of policy were: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The “BUY THE DIP” mentality with equities may not be a full-time feature of US equities moving forward, especially with an ever-closer looming trade war with China.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD/JPY below 108.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Sell JPY across the board especially AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn the first week of trading in 2018, FX traders were thrown 3 curve balls. If I had any thoughts it would be a sleepy city start to 2018, dream on.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough to contend with, TRUMP did it again.\r\n\r\nI have updated a few sections within this blog and once again had a review of the content and my focus group on exactly what I want to deliver via this blog.\r\n\r\nVery simply put, it is Market commentary on the FX market, from mostly a Fundamental viewpoint and of course it is delivered in my own words, my own thoughts and my own views in my own style.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to hope that readers who are not subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE like my approach and make the leap of faith and subscribe. The blog is a selling tool but it is also a vehicle that that allows me to take a step back and focus in a structured way on what is on the horizon.\r\n\r\nTo complete this section, this week…\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just starting, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” which is available until January 31st, 2018.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one year complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING LAST WEEK:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10761\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018-1024x878.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"878\" /></a>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THIS WEEK’S OVERVIEW and OPPORTUNITIES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u> </u><u> 3:1. THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10750\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018-1024x821.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:2. MY THOUGHTS ON HOW TO TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime piece of data on the agenda this week that has caught my eye, from a MUST TRADE perspective:\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC Interest Rate Decision and the Stephen Poloz Press Conference:</u>\r\n\r\nMake no mistake about it, this is a biggie.\r\n\r\nWe have most if not all of the Canadian Banks looking for an interest rate hike this week. Not for one minute do I believe their interest is based around the Canadian Economy. These institutions in Canada are NOT like what they are around the rest of the globe. They couldn’t give a crap about responsibility they are “FEE INCOME” focused and a rate hike loosens the strings to enable them to get more creative in fees and in so doing enhance their bottom lines.\r\n\r\nYou also have to consider from the BOC perspective that they must keep a margin in interest rate policy in line with of the USA. The FED are raising perhaps 3 times in 2018, Poloz cannot afford for the gap to widen.\r\n\r\nThe curve ball of NAFTA has been thrown on the table. If the US decides to withdraw they have to give six months’ notice in writing despite what TRUMP says. Even then, the negotiations can still go on. So, it’s not as black and white as TRUMP would have us all believe.\r\n\r\nCanadian Household debt is the highest of the G10 and at record levels. Banks in Canada have said its nothing to worry about, well they would say that wouldn’t they!\r\n\r\nThe BOC do NOT like this.\r\n\r\nGiven interest rate margins vis-à-vis the US and Household Debt, I can see the BOC raising, killing two birds with one stone, so to speak.\r\n\r\nIt will be about the language in the statement regarding clues on more rate hikes in 2018 that will really set the fire under the CAD. We have a Press Conference as well. It is a bit of “A Chaps In The City” approach, not as bad as the RBNZ, but Poloz is not as guarded on language as Mario Draghi so we will need to follow this as well.\r\n\r\nIf they (BOC) do not raise rates the USD/CAD will be back at 1.2900 very quickly. If they do raise rates, the BOC has gotten great bang for its buck in the past on rate hikes in 2017, circa. $0.04 cents per 0.25% hike!\r\n\r\nSo, with that said what I am thinking…?\r\n\r\nThe first issue is the “SHITHOLE” fallout. Buckets load of USD were sold on Friday afternoon into the close of the week. Usually, I would say that there should be a pullback because across many, many pair we are grossly over bought / oversold and the DXY is oversold.\r\n\r\nSo, at the start of the trading week be prepared. It all depends on how this story progresses over the weekend. The DXY could go extreme lower and then the snap back could be vicious.\r\n\r\nIt is impossible to say what the reaction will be at next week’s open and trading will be very thin.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nObviously, the CAD will be a currency to focus on. My hopes are that we get a spike that I can short into. I will probably layer in limit orders for spikes on USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nGiven the BOJ news I am not going to look to trade the CAD/JPY even though there is a nice potentially well-paying Head and Shoulders pattern available. I am set up with NZD/CAD already and if I were to add another pair to the suggested ones it would be either EUR/CAD or GBP/CAD. I will decide nearer to Wednesday.\r\n\r\nAUD jobs data is the same day as the BOC therefore I would probably not consider the AUD on the back of the CAD data.\r\n\r\nI think the currency to focus on this week is probably the JPY. We have actually confirmed news from the BOJ that affects their monetary policy stance moving forward.\r\n\r\nThe USD itself, I have been shying away from a little given TRUMP and his nonsense. When you have the USD weakening across the board it does make it harder to choose the JPY cross to single out apart from the USD/JPY itself.\r\n\r\nI would be looking at the commodity crosses especially the AUD/JPY, NOK/JPY and NZD/JPY. In addition, the EUR/JPY should NOT be ignored.\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts on the back of the BOJ starting to move away from an accommodative approach is USD/JPY to 108.00, probably even a greater unwind.\r\n\r\nSo, selling JPY strength is the trade maybe to focus on this week.\r\n\r\nOn an associated point. Volumes / liquidity are still not brilliant at certain times. The market is transitional at the moment for a variety of reasons.\r\n\r\nI am NOT a believer that the Asian market is good for FX. Liquidity is just getting lower and lower, year by year and the vast majority of times, Asian moves are reversed in Europe if liquidity is poor. European trading offers much better liquidity to give moves that stick and are directional.\r\n\r\nTherefore, here’s a tip. If you are trading, trade only the following times when liquidity will be at its highest: 8.00AM EST to NOON EST. This may not always be possible but it is without doubt the best time to trade.\r\n\r\nIn addition, be extremely careful with cross rates as they will be the first to suffer from the lower liquidity periods in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:3. USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with MY BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10752\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"886\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:4. USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLooks bullish to me, but with a caveat.\r\n\r\nSome major moves took place last Friday in particular. Two pieces of news. The rather HAWKISH ECB minutes last Thursday followed by Merkel progressing well in Germany vis-à-vis her coalition formation.\r\n\r\nCaution…\r\n\r\nWiedmann tried his best to halt the single currencies strength by stating that the path to normalization will be a long, long road. After quoting Tom Petty, the EUR/USD sank a little. I think what we must consider here is that ALL the crosses are moving in tandem.\r\n\r\nObviously looking forward there is strong support at 1.1915 and for me we have to break 1.2200 convincingly to see the bulls get a grip. Maybe the “STITHOLE” comments are that catalyst?\r\n\r\nLooking forward, I think that the EUR/USD will strengthen in 2018, but to quote Tom Petty it will be “A long, long road”, and I do not see too much Free Fallin’ in 2018!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10763\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nThunderbirds are go!\r\n\r\nThe Spanish and the Dutch have somewhat broken ranks with the EU27 by stating they think the Brits should have a soft BREXIT.\r\n\r\nGood Lord how much dosh was in that brown paper bag that changed hands? But hang on it was later DENIED!... more FAKE NEWS. The damage was already done as the already perky GBP remained perky.\r\n\r\nThis is a “BUY THE DIP” currency trade in my opinion. The only caveat I have is that always remember as well as good BREXIT news, this pair is always seconds away from a 100 drop on bad BREXIT news.\r\n\r\nThe Cup and Handle pattern on the chart below is in play.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10764\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\nWe are in triangle pattern and this pair is up against trend line resistance. My thoughts are that it will push stops and then fall back.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10762\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nAt the moment, this pair is screwing with longer-term strategy. It is in an ascending wedge pattern it has exposed itself beyond trend line resistance and fell back. But, it has not fallen back as strongly as I had thought it would. This probably has more to do with a weak USD than it has with a strong NZD.\r\n\r\nThat aside, it is well over bought and I think it will eventually turn lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10765\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nI have written a lot about this pair. Fundamentally I believe its path is lower towards 1.2000 and even lower this year.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10766\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nI can see this pair at 0.9450 or even lower if the single currency really breaks higher towards 1.3000.\r\n\r\nFor now, we should look at trend lows of circa.9700, maybe back to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.9650.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10767\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nThe JPY is the currency to keep a close eye on moving forward. Below 110.80 it could turn nasty for this pair and cascade lower towards my initial target of 108.00.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ adjusting monetary policy is huge and definitive news not FAKE that we as traders can work with. There is no need to rush at this as 2018 could be the year that the BOJ starts a lot of unwinding. Very interesting times and lots of pips up for grabs in my opinion.\r\n\r\nI am viewing this currency as a bonus in 2018. As far as I was concerned trading the JPY in 2018 was going to be a none event. That plan has now changed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10768\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS and LONGER-TERM TRADE SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. MY TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.2. LONG TERM CORE TRADES SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FINAL SHOTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5:1. WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> <u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5:2. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #265 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 13th January 2018', 'OOPS, I DID IT AGAIN…  TRUMP SENDS USD TO THE SH*THOLE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10771-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-01-13 09:17:33', '2018-01-13 14:17:33', '', 10771, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10771-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10794, 1, '2018-01-18 13:56:01', '2018-01-18 18:56:01', '<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE OPENING SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt’s back (THE DRIVE THRU) and I am back!\r\n\r\nWelcome to the first “DRIVE THRU” blog of 2018.\r\n\r\nI have been at my screens for about the last 6/7 trading days and although I am “full-time”, I am gradually easing myself back to full speed.\r\n\r\nOver the Christmas break, in addition to TV bingeing, the odd drop of wine, Jack Daniels and entertaining guests, I spent time looking at my screens checking levels on both weekly and monthly charts so that I could formulate my Q1 and Q2 longer-term position trades into my H1 TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nOf mice and men all the best laid plans…\r\n\r\n(My mother was Scottish and she would often say “The best laid schemes o’ Mice an” Men…quoting Rabbie Burns, The Baird of Ayrshire).\r\n\r\nGood God, education in my blog…..!\r\n\r\nAnyway, of mice and men etc…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday was a big day for FX from my perspective, there was a lot to take in and digest.\r\n\r\nHowever, on Friday…\r\n\r\n“Oops I Did It Again”, another heavily witnessed TRUMP gaffe.\r\n\r\nDespite his claims, you just know he said what he is quoted as saying because following the headlines he selected an area he didn’t say it about and focusses on that. Let me elaborate….\r\n\r\nHe singled out African countries and Africa as a SHITHOLE. He then tweets about it by saying I never said that or used that language about Haiti. He picks a different area to focus on. Now, I wasn’t there but this defence he uses is standard deflection from the narrative to try and take the heat off. He must think we are all a gang of fecking idiots not to see he does the same thing over and over again. Will he get a censure? God knows. Will it stop him? God knows. In the grand scheme of things, he probably couldn’t give a rat’s ass.\r\n\r\nAnyhow the “SHITHOLE” comments just encouraged more sellers of the USD into the market and on Friday afternoon there was basically an exodus. The USD is in the “SHITHOLE” never mind anything else. Next week will be very interesting.\r\n\r\nHowever, prior to this which took place on Friday last week…\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday, some macro news involving China reviewing its policy of holding US Debt, certainly placed the cat amongst the pigeons, or as my wife and I prefer as an alternative, it’s like placing Ozzy (Our boy Labrador almost 7 years old, but still a puppy) in a Pet Shop with dog treats on low level shelving. Give him 5 minutes alone, and brace yourself for the outcome -  if you have a Labrador, you will understand.\r\n\r\nI digress…\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nThe move by China, was in fact maybe NOT 100% accurate. Was it all nothing more than posturing?\r\n\r\nThe State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which is China’s FX Manager, 24 hours after BLOOMBERG news broke the headline, retorted;” In our opinion, the news may have quoted the wrong source of information, or it may be false news”\r\n\r\nWell there you have it… clear as fecking mud. “Maybe this, maybe that, maybe my fecking arse!!”\r\n\r\nHowever, the news was believed and still is today to some extent by the markets. For good measure on the same day we also had a JPY short squeeze. This was on the back of the BOJ making a change in its monetary policy, by announcing that it is reducing the amount of long-term bonds it is buying.\r\n\r\nThe upshot of this was, it affected a lot of my open trades. You can imagine my thoughts… here we go again etc.\r\n\r\nSo, mid-morning last Wednesday I started to look at my H1 strategy looking to re-think my attitude to RISK moving forward. Not a major re-think but a bit more thought on the amount I want to have at RISK.\r\n\r\nDid it end there last Wednesday?\r\n\r\nOf course, not… in for a penny in for a pound!\r\n\r\nOne of my CORE POSITIONS for 2018 was blown out of the water with a 400-pip loss across 4 trades; the CAD.\r\n\r\nThe same day, but now my afternoon, a Canadian source close to the CAD negotiators was quoted as stating that the CAD negotiators felt that the TRUMP administration were about to withdraw from the NAFTA agreement. Jesus, Mary and Joseph another damn vicious spike and drop. Luckily, I only took a 400-pip hit it could have been much worse. I was on a webinar at the time and saw the move light up. I exited everything CAD in a matter of moments.\r\n\r\nAt the time, I wondered had I been too hasty closing all trades. Had I not intervened, stops with USD/CAD trades would have been taken, but CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I could have left. I reacted very fast and quickly took the view that as the CAD/JPY was upside down anyhow as a result of the BOJ change in policy, and that was my biggest loss to cover my entire CAD exposure. I saw the words NAFTA on Tweet deck. The move for a NAFTA withdraw could be 200-300 pips of CAD weakness in my opinion… cut and run, head for the hills for me.\r\n\r\nSo; it felt as if my turkey hadn’t even fully digested and we were off again, with more FX volatility over “FAKE NEWS!” 2018 started where 2017 had left off.\r\n\r\nNAFTA news DENIED by the White House. China news gets a guarded DENIAL from the Chinese authorities. What can you do? All I could do was focus on the JPY strength as that was REAL BOJ NEWS!\r\n\r\nIronically, my iTunes was playing a Neil Young song from the album Time Fades Away, titled “Don’t Be Denied”. How fitting given all the denials!\r\n\r\nI never had the BOJ changing monetary policy in my plans for 2018 at all. My initial thoughts in hearing the change of policy were: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The “BUY THE DIP” mentality with equities may not be a full-time feature of US equities moving forward, especially with an ever-closer looming trade war with China.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD/JPY below 108.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Sell JPY across the board especially AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn the first week of trading in 2018, FX traders were thrown 3 curve balls. If I had any thoughts it would be a sleepy city start to 2018, dream on.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough to contend with, TRUMP did it again.\r\n\r\nI have updated a few sections within this blog and once again had a review of the content and my focus group on exactly what I want to deliver via this blog.\r\n\r\nVery simply put, it is Market commentary on the FX market, from mostly a Fundamental viewpoint and of course it is delivered in my own words, my own thoughts and my own views in my own style.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to hope that readers who are not subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE like my approach and make the leap of faith and subscribe. The blog is a selling tool but it is also a vehicle that that allows me to take a step back and focus in a structured way on what is on the horizon.\r\n\r\nTo complete this section, this week…\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just starting, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” which is available until January 31st, 2018.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one year complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING LAST WEEK:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10761\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-SUMMARY-13012018-1024x878.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"878\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THIS WEEK’S OVERVIEW and OPPORTUNITIES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>\r\n3:1. THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10750\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-13012018-1024x821.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:2. MY THOUGHTS ON HOW TO TRADE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime piece of data on the agenda this week that has caught my eye, from a MUST TRADE perspective:\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC Interest Rate Decision and the Stephen Poloz Press Conference:</u>\r\n\r\nMake no mistake about it, this is a biggie.\r\n\r\nWe have most if not all of the Canadian Banks looking for an interest rate hike this week. Not for one minute do I believe their interest is based around the Canadian Economy. These institutions in Canada are NOT like what they are around the rest of the globe. They couldn’t give a crap about responsibility they are “FEE INCOME” focused and a rate hike loosens the strings to enable them to get more creative in fees and in so doing enhance their bottom lines.\r\n\r\nYou also have to consider from the BOC perspective that they must keep a margin in interest rate policy in line with of the USA. The FED are raising perhaps 3 times in 2018, Poloz cannot afford for the gap to widen.\r\n\r\nThe curve ball of NAFTA has been thrown on the table. If the US decides to withdraw they have to give six months’ notice in writing despite what TRUMP says. Even then, the negotiations can still go on. So, it’s not as black and white as TRUMP would have us all believe.\r\n\r\nCanadian Household debt is the highest of the G10 and at record levels. Banks in Canada have said its nothing to worry about, well they would say that wouldn’t they!\r\n\r\nThe BOC do NOT like this.\r\n\r\nGiven interest rate margins vis-à-vis the US and Household Debt, I can see the BOC raising, killing two birds with one stone, so to speak.\r\n\r\nIt will be about the language in the statement regarding clues on more rate hikes in 2018 that will really set the fire under the CAD. We have a Press Conference as well. It is a bit of “A Chaps In The City” approach, not as bad as the RBNZ, but Poloz is not as guarded on language as Mario Draghi so we will need to follow this as well.\r\n\r\nIf they (BOC) do not raise rates the USD/CAD will be back at 1.2900 very quickly. If they do raise rates, the BOC has gotten great bang for its buck in the past on rate hikes in 2017, circa. $0.04 cents per 0.25% hike!\r\n\r\nSo, with that said what I am thinking…?\r\n\r\nThe first issue is the “SHITHOLE” fallout. Buckets load of USD were sold on Friday afternoon into the close of the week. Usually, I would say that there should be a pullback because across many, many pair we are grossly over bought / oversold and the DXY is oversold.\r\n\r\nSo, at the start of the trading week be prepared. It all depends on how this story progresses over the weekend. The DXY could go extreme lower and then the snap back could be vicious.\r\n\r\nIt is impossible to say what the reaction will be at next week’s open and trading will be very thin.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nObviously, the CAD will be a currency to focus on. My hopes are that we get a spike that I can short into. I will probably layer in limit orders for spikes on USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nGiven the BOJ news I am not going to look to trade the CAD/JPY even though there is a nice potentially well-paying Head and Shoulders pattern available. I am set up with NZD/CAD already and if I were to add another pair to the suggested ones it would be either EUR/CAD or GBP/CAD. I will decide nearer to Wednesday.\r\n\r\nAUD jobs data is the same day as the BOC therefore I would probably not consider the AUD on the back of the CAD data.\r\n\r\nI think the currency to focus on this week is probably the JPY. We have actually confirmed news from the BOJ that affects their monetary policy stance moving forward.\r\n\r\nThe USD itself, I have been shying away from a little given TRUMP and his nonsense. When you have the USD weakening across the board it does make it harder to choose the JPY cross to single out apart from the USD/JPY itself.\r\n\r\nI would be looking at the commodity crosses especially the AUD/JPY, NOK/JPY and NZD/JPY. In addition, the EUR/JPY should NOT be ignored.\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts on the back of the BOJ starting to move away from an accommodative approach is USD/JPY to 108.00, probably even a greater unwind.\r\n\r\nSo, selling JPY strength is the trade maybe to focus on this week.\r\n\r\nOn an associated point. Volumes / liquidity are still not brilliant at certain times. The market is transitional at the moment for a variety of reasons.\r\n\r\nI am NOT a believer that the Asian market is good for FX. Liquidity is just getting lower and lower, year by year and the vast majority of times, Asian moves are reversed in Europe if liquidity is poor. European trading offers much better liquidity to give moves that stick and are directional.\r\n\r\nTherefore, here’s a tip. If you are trading, trade only the following times when liquidity will be at its highest: 8.00AM EST to NOON EST. This may not always be possible but it is without doubt the best time to trade.\r\n\r\nIn addition, be extremely careful with cross rates as they will be the first to suffer from the lower liquidity periods in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:3. USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with MY BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10752\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-13012018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"886\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:4. USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nLooks bullish to me, but with a caveat.\r\n\r\nSome major moves took place last Friday in particular. Two pieces of news. The rather HAWKISH ECB minutes last Thursday followed by Merkel progressing well in Germany vis-à-vis her coalition formation.\r\n\r\nCaution…\r\n\r\nWiedmann tried his best to halt the single currencies strength by stating that the path to normalization will be a long, long road. After quoting Tom Petty, the EUR/USD sank a little. I think what we must consider here is that ALL the crosses are moving in tandem.\r\n\r\nObviously looking forward there is strong support at 1.1915 and for me we have to break 1.2200 convincingly to see the bulls get a grip. Maybe the “STITHOLE” comments are that catalyst?\r\n\r\nLooking forward, I think that the EUR/USD will strengthen in 2018, but to quote Tom Petty it will be “A long, long road”, and I do not see too much Free Fallin’ in 2018!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10763\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nThunderbirds are go!\r\n\r\nThe Spanish and the Dutch have somewhat broken ranks with the EU27 by stating they think the Brits should have a soft BREXIT.\r\n\r\nGood Lord how much dosh was in that brown paper bag that changed hands? But hang on it was later DENIED!... more FAKE NEWS. The damage was already done as the already perky GBP remained perky.\r\n\r\nThis is a “BUY THE DIP” currency trade in my opinion. The only caveat I have is that always remember as well as good BREXIT news, this pair is always seconds away from a 100 drop on bad BREXIT news.\r\n\r\nThe Cup and Handle pattern on the chart below is in play.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10764\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nWe are in triangle pattern and this pair is up against trend line resistance. My thoughts are that it will push stops and then fall back.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10762\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUSUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nAt the moment, this pair is screwing with longer-term strategy. It is in an ascending wedge pattern it has exposed itself beyond trend line resistance and fell back. But, it has not fallen back as strongly as I had thought it would. This probably has more to do with a weak USD than it has with a strong NZD.\r\n\r\nThat aside, it is well over bought and I think it will eventually turn lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10765\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nI have written a lot about this pair. Fundamentally I believe its path is lower towards 1.2000 and even lower this year.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10766\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nI can see this pair at 0.9450 or even lower if the single currency really breaks higher towards 1.3000.\r\n\r\nFor now, we should look at trend lows of circa.9700, maybe back to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.9650.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10767\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nThe JPY is the currency to keep a close eye on moving forward. Below 110.80 it could turn nasty for this pair and cascade lower towards my initial target of 108.00.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ adjusting monetary policy is huge and definitive news not FAKE that we as traders can work with. There is no need to rush at this as 2018 could be the year that the BOJ starts a lot of unwinding. Very interesting times and lots of pips up for grabs in my opinion.\r\n\r\nI am viewing this currency as a bonus in 2018. As far as I was concerned trading the JPY in 2018 was going to be a none event. That plan has now changed.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10768\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-13012018-1024x435.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nNot exactly what I had expected 2018 to start like.\r\n\r\nTrading the FX market is certainly a challenge at times. Fundamentally, I know what I want to trade and roughly what I want by way of RISK to accommodate and approximate exits. The entries are relatively straightforward, I still believe confluences of buyers and sellers or Fibonacci levels offer up the best positions to start from.\r\n\r\nThere is a plan…\r\n\r\nWhy therefore in the name of sanity with all the strategy planning done over the Christmas holiday period am I starting the year after one week in a negative period?\r\n\r\nBad luck?\r\n\r\nSome of it is poor luck. 390 pips of losses surrounding the CAD regarding NAFTA. Another 180 pips or thereabouts were attributed to trades I closed that I wasn\'t 100% about around the time of NON-Farm Payrolls and naturally coincided with the “Bomb Cyclone” weather storm that hit Atlantic Canada and took out our power for over 12 hours. Combined those events total 570 pips.\r\n\r\nThe rest, being self-critical, can be put down to poor decisions on stop placements, lack of discipline and over confidence. Or, as a seasoned trader I like to call it “NORMALITY and BEING HUMAN”\r\n\r\nSeriously though, losses are as much a part of day to day trading as taking profits.\r\n\r\nThose of you who have been with me for over a couple of years or so, whether individually or with one of my two consortiums will know that I am NOT in any way shape or form a scalper trader. In fact, several of you do not even think I enjoy day trading too much, unless I can see the option of a swing trade!  Last Thursday, I did FLASH TRADE 4 x JPY trades for c.140 pips. To be honest they were more like RADAR TRADES without the limit order entry but still a day trade! I will do more of these in 2018.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is a real bonus for me. I had not even considered it for 2018 given the stale BOJ policy. That has now changed and I will be looking most days for JPY trades moving forward. At least JPY trades will be based on real news.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSo; many of you like this segment of the subscriber section because I place down on paper exactly what I am thinking.\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday about 4PM AST my exact thoughts were WTF!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMy fundamental views have not altered. I am still bearish CAD and NZD.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt the NAFTA deal has “placed Ozzy in the pet shop” but that aside, the BOC has to keep pace with the FED regardless of NAFTA when it comes to rate hikes. Poloz can put lipstick on it next Wednesday at the BOC Press Conference but it’s still a PIG at the end of the day and he has to deal with fallout regardless.\r\n\r\nPrivate debt in Canada is out of control, it\'s the highest in the G10, he has to act. The time for mind games is far gone in my opinion and if he dithers, the buck stops with him.\r\n\r\nI think he will raise rates.\r\n\r\nI have placed limit orders in readiness.\r\n\r\nDIE KIWI DIE…. What a bloody pain in the arse currency! All the key indicators, MACD, Stochastics, RSi etc are all showing stretched overbought conditions.\r\n\r\nI think one of the main issues with the NZD has been the moves with regards to the AUD/NZD. The cross-rate effect of this pair has both helped the AUD and hindered the NZD.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, the NZD/USD is now in a very tight ascending wedge, which should she a very sharp and powerful failure and fall back lower. I still have the John Key level of 0.6500 in mind. If achieved this will place <u>ALL</u> AUD/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD trades well in profit. The pip opportunity with these pairs alone in 2018, I believe is potentially more lucrative then the CAD.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about patience and building your positions up the best that you can.\r\n\r\nBeyond the NZD and CAD, I am getting ready for cable. No need to get too excited yet, I need to see some tangible BREXIT data before I get out the party hats and ice up the buckets of Champagne. Being more specific, this will re-define a long-haul trade.\r\n\r\nThe AUD/NZD is a position I will hold basically no matter what. I am prepared for 1.10280-1.0350 if necessary.  It is well funded in its own broker account and I have plenty of scope for huge volatility. This trade is coming up to its three-year birthday.\r\n\r\nThe cable will be multiple pairs, different expectations, different directions and many more issues to consider.\r\n\r\nThe long AUD trade, I am now not so sure about therefore if I am undecided, it is parked for now at least.\r\n\r\nHowever, in horse racing terminology coming up fast on the outside is the JPY. This is a trade option based around the BOJ decision to change policy moving forwards. Is this the start of the great unwind?\r\n\r\nWith both the EUR and JPY coming to the end of dovish policy… Ozzy has his nose pressed hard against the pet shop door ready to get in there and strut his stuff!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SENTIMENT-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10753\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SENTIMENT-13012018-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS and LONGER-TERM TRADE SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. MY TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Prepare for BOC by establishing CAD limit orders as required ahead of the Statement release. Decide my TRADE PLAN ahead of the statement, should the meeting raise rates or do nothing.</li>\r\n 	<li>Add to NZD CORE short position. Re-asses total associated RISK and fund broker if required.</li>\r\n 	<li>Establish a strategy into my TRADE PLAN vis-à-vis the JPY. This is now very much a tradeable currency in 2018. For me it is similar to Lazarus coming back from the dead.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4:3.2. LONG TERM CORE TRADES SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-POS-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10751\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-POS-13012018-1024x986.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"986\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u><u> </u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10755\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-13012018-1024x560.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"560\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIMIT-ORDERS-13012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10754\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIMIT-ORDERS-13012018-1024x440.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"440\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI have been asked a couple of times what platform do I use for trade charts that I publish on twitter and inside this blog. The answer is cTrader and by coincidence I have added a new FX Broker to the website as one of my recommended ones, to go along with HANTEC MARKETS (London) and VANTAGE FX (Sydney).\r\n\r\nThe new broker is IC MARKETS based in Melbourne, Australia.\r\n\r\nI have been dealing with this company for about 18 months because changes in regulations here in Canada, well Quebec actually where I used to live basically prevented most jurisdictions from operating in the province unless the platform had French content. Even in France it’s all in English!\r\n\r\nThat was one reason to leave Quebec before it implodes. Since “Pasta gate” it just got worse even with laughable commentary from around the world. Quebec is just plain and simple weird.\r\n\r\nGetting back on point…\r\n\r\nI discovered IC MARKETS because of Quebec language laws. They offer MT4 and cTrader platforms, tight spreads, excellent customer service and no slippage.\r\n\r\nIf you want to add another broker click the banner that\'s on most pages of the website and be in the group!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FINAL SHOTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5:1. WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5:2. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #161 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nDATE: 13th January 2018', 'OOPS, I DID IT AGAIN…  TRUMP SENDS USD TO THE SH*THOLE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10769-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-01-18 13:56:01', '2018-01-18 18:56:01', '', 10769, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10769-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10795, 1, '2018-01-18 13:57:07', '2018-01-18 18:57:07', '<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST FEW SHOTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWith a tear in my eye and sadness in my heart, I have to announce that this is the last DRIVE THRU blog of 2017. My arse… I can’t wait for the Christmas break; I am looking forward to Turkey, bingeing on TV and Football and having a few Jack Daniels or glasses of Shiraz or Pinot Noir without worrying about getting up early for news events in the European session.\r\n\r\nSo, we have had the FED rate hike, with Janet Yellen’s farewell press conference, the BOE and SNB staying pat and Draghi at the ECB running through a press conference ensuring that he continues to emphasize low rates, support forever or even longer than that.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen delivered a dovish rate hike, the USD sold off, it was nothing more than a buy the rumour, sell the news event. She confirmed that interest rate hikes would continue and the “Dot” plot, which was also released at the same time looked for three more rate increases in 2018.\r\n\r\nThomas Jordan and Mark Carney, did not surprise at all. Policies at the SNB and BOE remain unchanged. Rather boring data releases.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi started off his press conference with the words “Happy Christmas”.\r\n\r\nFirstly, he could never say that in the U.S. without being frowned upon.\r\n\r\nSecondly, he looked ready for the staff Christmas Party, he was in a jolly mood, the most relaxed I have seen him for a long, long, long time. I lost count of references that were dovish, or mentioned extended periods of time and long after QE etc… There were several of them.\r\n\r\nAll the hard work had been done by the ECB in the previous 60 days. All Draghi had to do in the interim period was silence the governing council numpties that can’t keep their gobs shut so that the run in to the end of the year was smooth without awkward questions.\r\n\r\nBlasting through the data highlights from last week…\r\n\r\nOn top of the Central Bank statements, Retail Sales in the UK finally spiked over 1%. U.S. Retail Sales beat estimates, UK inflation hit 3.1%, however, UK average earnings were still lagging at 2.5%. But the prize for the best statistics last week had to go to Australian Employment Data, it beat by a landslide, 18.1K jobs expected but 61.6k recorded.\r\n\r\nHowever…\r\n\r\nWhile that all sounds great, the FX market, has recently been driven by news events.\r\n\r\nIn the U.S. it’s all about the GOP TAX BILL. That fiasco goes on, and on, and on, and on… The latest that I have read, (but being honest I am kind of bored with the whole GOP / TRUMP thing I am exhausted and apathy has set in, thank God, its Christmas!) was that LITTLE MARCO who was voting against has been bought and now he’s in favour and that voting in both houses should happen this week. However, there are still senators not 100% so we could see more twists right up to the votes being cast….\r\n\r\nEight years in opposition with two prime pieces of legislation that apparently united the GOP…. OBAMACARE &amp; TAX REFORM, and the GOP operates like a headless chicken. Sorry to keep with the poultry trend, but many Republicans have no idea what they are voting for….  For many I am certain that its tantamount to “Turkey’s voting for Christmas”.\r\n\r\nD.C. IS NO BETTER THAN A REALITY TV SHOW\r\n\r\nWith all confidence, I can safely say that one way or another TRUMP will dominate the U.S. markets this week. Initially, the Tax Bill has control of the markets moving forward. It will be this news event the makes the moves…. Then who knows what’s next to surface or reappear?\r\n\r\nIn Europe, BREXIT has the narrative. Theresa May loses a crucial house vote, flies off to Brussels hits the EU Christmas Party council meeting, sits on Santa’s knee, asks Santa for the OK to move to phase two of the BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS to be her wish for Christmas and low and behold… Phase two it is!\r\n\r\nI think that it’s fair to say this is now the meat of the BREXIT negotiations and in true politician style, its urgent, so they will start discussions in March 2018, leaving just a year to complete the divorce. It’s a tall order. The pathway forward is clear, but there will be twists and turns along the way.\r\n\r\nFrom an FX viewpoint, I am now trying to get my head around all the FUNDAMENTALS of the past 7 days or so, Central Banks, U.S. politics, BREXIT and China to have my goals clear in my head for Q1 and Q2 next year. I don\'t think that I can’t look too far beyond H1.\r\n\r\nNext year in FX should be just as challenging as this year, which leads me nicely forward…\r\n\r\n<strong>“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”</strong>\r\n\r\nWith a new year on the horizon and another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018, I am launching a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” running until January 31st 2018.\r\n\r\nAll “sign-ups” under this promotion, please note that your subscription period will NOT start until January 8<sup>th</sup> 2018, which is the formal date for next year’s trading to commence. Having said that, trading will continue albeit at a greatly reduced involvement through the holidays.\r\n\r\nThe benefit of subscribing now means that you cannot only take advantage of the trading that does take place but you can also use the interim period as an opportunity to familiarize yourself with the website and location of the content.\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>MY (THE PREMIUM SERVICE) TRADING LAST WEEK:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was light on trading for me. There was just too much chop in the market to maintain my interest 100%.  Add to this the end of the year account balancing and reduced liquidity it didn’t really get the blood circulating through my veins at the normal rate.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are probably a little “old school”, in the sense that why trade when you believe the market is not true and does sit with your TRADE PLAN. In other words, why take on the RISK?\r\n\r\nI was more focused last week myself on exits rather than entries…\r\n\r\nAs mentioned in previous “DRIVE THRU” blogs, I was looking to manage out of my USD/CAD position. Well, I off-loaded my long-term USD/CAD short position. I decided NOT to wait until next year. My belief is that this pair will move higher before resuming lower. All the indicators were against me, I was trying to swim upstream and whilst I gave myself time and several attempts to manufacture an out trade for my HEDGED position it was just NOT working so I decided to minimize additional losses and take my pain.\r\n\r\nThe end result is that at the moment I am running a loss position on “pips” for this month, with just a week to go until I close off for 2017.\r\n\r\n<u>PERFORMANCE 2017 TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n2017 YEAR TO DATE:                +12,116 net pips\r\n\r\nThis is roughly where I predicted the year end 2017 total will lie, I am well above my net 10,000 pip objective.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>          3. <span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\">THE FX MARKET PLACE THIS WEEK:</span></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>3:1. THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u></span>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/ECON-DATA-17122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10643\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/ECON-DATA-17122017-1024x829.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"829\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>3:2. MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u></span>\r\n\r\nThis week, will be a strange one as we wind down for Christmas. There are only a couple of economic releases that will make sure that I am around for “LIVE” the rest I will pick up via Twitter.\r\n\r\nThe year-end movements and re-balancing for most institutions took place last Friday. In my opinion, liquidity could be dreadful this week. Moves could therefore be exaggerated; therefore, one should be very cautious.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD:</u></strong><u> GDP</u>.\r\n\r\nWhilst this is a quarterly backwards looking number, it is a number that the markets respect.\r\n\r\nA word of caution. This data is scheduled for release Wednesday at the start of Asian Trading. At the best of times Asian Trading is thin. At this time of the year it could be brutal.\r\n\r\nGiven the political situation in New Zealand, this number should be noted as it should reflect most of the initial period of the new Labour governments tenure. If it is a poor number, I do not think that too much can be attributed to the new Labour government, although in economics as well as politics bad news does stick… at least initially.\r\n\r\nRight now, the NZD looks strong and a good number here could project it well above the .7070 (38% Fib. retracement) towards the next trend line resistance around 0.7200.\r\n\r\nI would be very surprised if we see such a projected move but stranger things have happened in a thin market trading environment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nCAD:</u></strong><u> CPi, RETAIL SALES and GDP.</u>\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, Governor of the BOC, is not on my 2017 Christmas card list. He shot the USD/CAD lower the day after I took losses… bugger!\r\n\r\nMedium-term, I do see the BOC having little alternative but to raise rates to keep differentials with the FED intact.\r\n\r\nAll of this data coming in line or at least beating the previous releases as a minimum is required to give Poloz support to move on rates early in 2018. The next BOC statement is scheduled on January 17th, the following one which is when I think he will raise interest rates is scheduled for March 7th, 2018.\r\n\r\nIncreasing interest rates then will beat the first possibility of another FED rise. The FOMC meet March 21st, but the smart money is on a U.S. rise at the FOMC June 13th meeting.\r\n\r\nInterest rate conjecture placed to one side, this data takes on greater importance given the latest FED policy statement.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CURRENT ACCOUNT.</u>\r\n\r\nI am not an economist, nor do I consider myself any sort of expert in this area but as with most things, a little knowledge is dangerous.\r\n\r\nFadó, fadó (a long, long time ago), well it seems it now, I studied Government and Politics, Economics and Commerce in my last years of education. Bits and pieces are still stuck in the grey matter inside my skull.\r\n\r\nThis data (Current Account) is largely ignored by the press and markets. I believe with BREXIT it’s probably one of the key pieces of data that the H.M. Treasury and the BOE examine it under a microscope.\r\n\r\nThis is all about the health of an economy.\r\n\r\nIt is the balance sheet of trade and services and monetary transfers in and out of the UK.\r\n\r\nCombined with BREXIT, the fact that the UK is basically a service industry economy and the BREXIT effect on the City of London through companies exiting the UK, could have a huge effect on the CURRENT ACCOUNT as monies will be re-directed away from the UK.\r\n\r\nThis affects jobs directly in Financial services based in the UK as well direct and indirect support service jobs and business viability.\r\n\r\nThe last print was GBP -23.2biliion. There are targets and limits; it is the pace of change that is also watched. It is somewhat of a stealth number at times. It should create a response in normal trading conditions. It just depends how many traders are around on December 22nd!\r\n\r\nIt is worth following re the fundamentals, in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>3:3. USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with BIAS:</u></span>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/TCHART-17122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10644\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/TCHART-17122017-1024x887.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"887\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">3:4. USD – TRADING CHARTS:</span> </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\nCANDLE ANALYSIS: I have now added my thoughts based on the closing daily and weekly candles to the weeks trading.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u>\r\n</strong>\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE:           SHOOTING STAR\r\nWEEKLY CLOSING CANDLE:      SPINNING TOP\r\n\r\nOn FOMC day, there was a very, very strong move higher as you can see on the chart below. Usually, when someone says to me what follows a big GREEN candle, like the one seen last Wednesday, 9 times out of 10 I would reply, another BIG GREEN candle.\r\n\r\nHowever, the following day was the ECB rate announcement and press conference in which, Mario Draghi was a little more dovish than expected and he forced the single currency lower.\r\n\r\nFriday was the end of the year bookkeeping adjustment day and we saw a chunk of volatility in the markets. Will we pull higher once again after the weekend into this week?\r\n\r\nThe range is quite well defined at 1.1715 to 1.1960.\r\n\r\nWe have ended the week bearish but until we break support or resistance we are in my opinion just range trading.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EURUSD-D-171222017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10656\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EURUSD-D-171222017-1024x464.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"464\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE: CLOSING CHART PATTERN = EVENING STAR\r\nWEEKLY CLOSING CANDLE: SHOOTING STAR\r\n\r\nIt’s all rather bearish if these candles play out for the start of the week.\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, the flag pattern shown on the chart is still in play unless we break below 1.3290, at which point it is invalidated and all bets are off on the bullish side.\r\n\r\nShould 1.3300 hold, the measured move with the flag is 1.3740.\r\n\r\nWe just have to bear in mind any BREXIT news vis-a-via the cable.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/GBPUSD-D-17122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10657\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/GBPUSD-D-17122017-1024x464.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"464\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE:           SHOOTING STAR\r\nWEEKLY CLOSING CANDLE:      BULLISH\r\n\r\nWe are in a triangle pattern and this pair bounced nicely off a December 2016 trend line.\r\n\r\nWe do not have alignment with candles and this matches a non-alignment with sentiment.\r\n\r\nWe have to see above 0.7740 or below 0.7490 to get a momentum move confirmed in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/AUDUSD-D-17122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10655\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/AUDUSD-D-17122017-1024x464.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"464\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE:           BEARISH\r\nWEEKLY CLOSING CANDLE:      BULLISH<strong><u>\r\n</u></strong>\r\nSentiment has shifted bullish, but the candles are lagging a little. The daily close represents the USD strength into the end of the year bookkeeping adjustments.\r\n\r\nEarly this week, I expect this pair to move higher back with trend and sentiment.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NZDUSD-D-17122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10658\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NZDUSD-D-17122017-1024x464.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"464\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE:           BULLISH\r\nWEEKLY CLOSING CANDLE:      HAMMER\r\n\r\nThis pair looks like it is going to move higher and the levels of 1.3000 and 1.3100 appear to be sucking this pair in like a tractor beam from Star Trek.\r\n\r\nWe have a bullish wedge at 1.2915.\r\n\r\nIf this breaks I will have to get long even though I am a little reluctant given the time of the year. In my experience moves out of wedge tend to be very powerful and decisive.\r\n\r\nOn the basis that I booked a loss on this pair to the short side last week the upside potential break would vindicate my decision to cut and run.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDCAD-D-17122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10659\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDCAD-D-17122017-1024x464.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"464\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE:           INDECISIVE\r\nWEEKLY CLOSING CANDLE:      HANGING MAN (BULLISH)<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nAlbeit that last Friday’s candle is neither one thing nor the other, I still feel this pair has a potential upside break ahead of it.\r\n\r\nThe keys levels are 0.9860 and 0.9940.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDCHF-D-17122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10660\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDCHF-D-17122017-1024x464.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"464\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE:           BULLISH ENGULFING\r\nWEEKLY CLOSING CANDLE:      BEARISH ENGULFING<u>\r\n</u>\r\nBoth candles are powerful looking candles. The issue is that they are contrary to each other.\r\n\r\nMy thought process here is that the WEEKLY candle should outweigh the DAILY candle. Given the day that last Friday was, that is, closing the books for most institutions on 2017, I would be inclined to believe that this would add weight to my thought process.\r\n\r\nHowever, a word of caution.\r\n\r\nDon’t count on anything as we are entering the silly season vis-à-vis liquidity and I would not believe anything until I see a good couple of sessions pass by to try to establish some confirmation. I know that that sounds a little unrealistic but it is the time of the year that drives my thought process this way.\r\n\r\nWatching levels at 112.00 and 113.20 may give a better visual for directional confirmation.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDJPY-D-17122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10661\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDJPY-D-17122017-1024x464.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"464\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>3:5. MY THOUGHTS ON HOW TO PLAY FX THIS WEEK:</u></span>\r\n\r\nIf you are going to trade this week, keep it very small and DO NOT get too involved.\r\n\r\nLiquidity will get worse as the week progresses with most of the institutions, especially in the U.S. well into Christmas Party mode with senior management probably issued directives on what constitutes sexual harassment to be handed down in memo form or discussed in group meetings. There will be headlines early next year… guaranteed. I would say those executives who consider themselves on a “fast track” will avoid the parties. It just takes an accusation and it’s all over.\r\n\r\nGetting back on point…\r\n\r\nThere are market movers in the economic data releases but I think more disturbingly the market will be driven by the GOP and TRUMP.\r\n\r\nI am NOT a believer that the Asian market is good for FX. Liquidity is just getting lower and lower, year by year and the vast majority of times, Asian moves are reversed in Europe. If liquidity is usually poor. Just imagine it this week.\r\n\r\nThe UK liquidity will be better but also poor.\r\n\r\nTherefore, here’s a tip. If you need to trade, trade only the following times when liquidity will be at its highest: 8.00AM EST to NOON EST.\r\n\r\nBe extremely careful with cross rates as they will be the first to suffer from the lower liquidity and exaggerated moves.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u></span>\r\n\r\nJust 5 days to go until I close the book on 2017. As you may have noted, I am already into setting up for 2018. Liquidity has dropped considerably already this year and this coming week could be difficult.\r\n\r\nI have already advised you of changes for 2018 and there are still a few updates left to complete. So, whilst it may look as if there is masterly inactivity taking place in Nova Scotia, I can assure you that that is far from the reality.\r\n\r\nAs you know, I took the USD/CAD position away. My thoughts were simple, the Stochastic\'s and RSi were all against me. Poloz was against me and the CAD data has plateaued or reversed. Basically, I was fighting against the current and a tractor beam to 1.3000, or even 1.3100 looked to be in play. Whilst I could support the HEDGE the attempted HEDGE OUT trades I could not and I made the decision after the FOMC to exit the position in total on lows. Obviously, the next day out comes Poloz being a little more hawkish, given that the Fed had just raised… typical!\r\n\r\nIt was a goal from last week to exit!\r\n\r\nSo, I ended the year with a series of losing trades…argh!!\r\n\r\nNevertheless, the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 will be above 12,000 pips when all said and done and to be honest when I came back from Australia and New Zealand in July, I thought to get to 10,000 could be a challenge given the way news headlines had started to direct the markets.\r\n\r\nThe Next DRIVE THRU is on January 13th. The official back to trading date will be Monday January 8th, however, I should be up and running before then. You will know via twitter what the story is.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u></span>\r\n\r\nI think we will drift in ranges from now until the middle of January next year. There is nothing to get excited about at all.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/SENTIMENT-17122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10649\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/SENTIMENT-17122017-790x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"790\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:3. TRADING PLANS:</u></span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:3.1. TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u></span>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Complete next batch of PREMIUM SERVICE 2018 updates.</li>\r\n 	<li>Close off the 2017 performance and report thru blog pages and twitter.</li>\r\n 	<li>Produce a 2018 key long term trade document to be reviewed in this section of the DRIVE THRU blog each week.</li>\r\n 	<li>Prepare POWER POINT PROMOTION document and record WEBINAR for marketing campaign.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:3.2.  EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u></span>\r\n\r\nI only retain my CORE long AUD/NZD trades through the Christmas period. I have 5 x LIVE trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u></span>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/LIVE2-17122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10648\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/LIVE2-17122017-1024x1021.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1021\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES: - There are none.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u></span>\r\n\r\nExpect a rush of bonus offers of cash, iPhones and iPAD’s. There will be a frenzy to grab new clients in readiness for the new trading year.\r\n\r\nRemember with brokers there are NO free lunches.\r\n\r\nMy two recommended brokers HANTEC MARKETS (London) and VANTAGE FX (Sydney), remain in position for 2018. I am really happy with these guys and if you want an additional account please sign up though the banner on my website to be in the PREMIUM SERVICE group.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>5:1. CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u></span>\r\n\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +12,116 net pips\r\n\r\nIn sales mode; I am now planning for 2018. I will have live trades through the Christmas and New Year holidays so I will be on twitter and probably email.\r\n\r\nIn 2018, the PREMIUM SERVICE will return with a new TRADE STYLE option for subscribers to consider and the SUBSCRIBER SECTION of the “DRIVE THRU” will be larger with greater emphasis on sentiment and market direction. Therefore, now is a great time to join the PREMIUM SERVICE get familiar and ready to go with the 2018 launch!!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>5:2. HOW TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u></span>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\n<u>PLEASE NOTE</u>: The TAB on my home page titled PROMOTIONS contains details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” campaign that is currently in place.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> THE FINAL SHOTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>6:1. WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u></span>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>6:2. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u></span>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nFinally …\r\n\r\nThanks for your support during 2017.\r\n\r\nHappy Christmas and have a great trading year in 2018.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #159 THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n17th December 2017', 'THE REALITY TV SHOW IN D.C. ROLLS ON', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10680-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-01-18 13:57:07', '2018-01-18 18:57:07', '', 10680, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10680-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10796, 1, '2018-01-18 13:58:16', '2018-01-18 18:58:16', '<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome.\r\n\r\nThis week’s DRIVE THRU takes on a new format. I am not changing for changing sake, I am responding to comments. The main purpose of this blog is to formally communicate with my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, but it does have a dual purpose. The second purpose is to inform and hopefully attract serious FX traders to become new PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers. It is always a balance and for about 4 years now, I keep tweaking the content. I hope that you like this revision. Given my history in this regard it will NOT be the last.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nLast week had it all; boredom, excitement, annoyance, frustration, surprise plus profits and losses and several shots of Jack Daniels… that was just Tuesday. I think I read somewhere that it was the strongest / biggest single day rally in the USD for years.\r\n\r\nIt certainly shook the markets for those playing the EUR/USD (Head and Shoulders) / DXY (Inverted Head and Shoulders). Money flows at the moment are driving these huge moves. The NIKKEI had a 20% move higher in a couple of months. Fund managers are looking for value as we head into the year end, monies are moving to Europe away from Japan etc.… there is a lot going on and currencies are being used in huge volumes to facilitate a lot of these moves.\r\n\r\nOvernight last Thursday into Friday morning the PREMIUM SERVICE was blasted with over 750 pips of profit when my core short positions across the AUD and NZD drilled home pips across several trades.\r\n\r\nFor me last week was a two-day trading week… All that wasted time for the other days sitting in front of screens!!\r\n\r\nIt has been quite some time since I have written “RISK OFF” in my blog but we are sort of there as we are bouncing around in the US equity markets. It is a battle between the “BUY THE DIP” mentality and market bears. Is the most hated rally ever finally being sold? Not sure but a pullback of sorts, and its minimal in the grand scheme of things is happening.\r\n\r\nEnough of that…\r\n\r\nOver the past month or so I have been sampling my competition to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThere are so many chart analysts out there, but that is all they do. They look backwards and tell what patterns were formed and why, but there is very little out there who look forward and trade, in fact I doubt very many of them have skin in the market.\r\n\r\nI have looked across the spectrum; costly to cheap and well-known to unknown.\r\nI followed big names who have tens of thousands of followers on twitter, as well as specific trade set up providers and analysts from brokers. In total about 10 names/ businesses, here is a sample of what I came across. It’s not totally inclusive as some were just not worth the print!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TV ANAYLST WITH OWN FX SUPPORT BUSINESS (UK BASED)</u></strong>: Is a regular guest on BNN, CNBC and BLOOMBERG, huge on Twitter. In my opinion, he is a gambler. He puts trades up a minute or two before high beta news events. It\'s a 50-50 guess. You hear about the good ones on Twitter and the failures disappear. The service covers all markets, I am just Forex, so a lot of what I received was great for correlations but nothing revolutionary.  I made money but the cost was double what I charge. Lots of supporting information, not sure where its cut and pasted from. Response time to questions poor.\r\n\r\nIt was a high cost, I made money but the gambling trades are stupid in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TV ANAYLST WITH OWN FX SUPPORT BUSINESS (US BASED): </u></strong>Another, is so fast and impossible to follow on a webinar and the amount of assumptions made are incredible. This service provider is a regular on CNBC. All the trades lost money. Analysis is good but the implementation of trades a joke. It was all over the map for me, no discipline, no structure. The chat room was frankly dangerous, no management, inexperienced traders being exposed to all sorts of crap. Is it any wonder FX gets a bad name? I would close that down right now.\r\n\r\nThere are so many cost options, so much to take in, maybe something I did NOT buy worked but I doubt it. I am confused about the whole package options and I blame this service for my migraine during the week. Response time to questions excellent.\r\n\r\nCannot possibly trade LIVE trades. Very well-known must live off huge fee incomes from webinars, on-line books, algorithm sales (they don\'t work either) and TV appearance fees.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>BROKER ANALYST (UK BASED):</u></strong> This person from a large Broker, also on Business TV a fair bit, I respect as a chart analyst, but the LIVE trading is a fecking joke. He simply never trades. It’s all theory. No skin in the game.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TRADES SERVICE PROVIDER (HONG KONG BASED):</u></strong><strong>  </strong>Four times more expensive than the PREMIUM SERVICE no supporting information for trades, poor response times and trades were all 10 or 15 pip scalps that would NOT cover the cost of the subscription unless you were trading 4/5 standard lots a time. Not my target audience and too high RISK for most people. I just about broke even. Not my cup of tea. Now they are SPAMMING me… Jesus, Mary and Joseph!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>SUMMARY:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nI have faults, just ask my wife! Trading in the FX market I always have real skin in the market. I feel the trades. I trade without emotion (most times) because I manage RISK. I do not have hundreds of subscribers, no way near. I have a solid group of serious FX traders from around the globe and two syndicates through spokespeople that adds about 20 additional traders into the mix. I keep it simple and I try my best to provide a personal and prompt service. I, the PREMIUM SERVICE am looking for serious traders who want to trade, not have to trade, I hope that makes sense.\r\n\r\nTo do what I do, I can’t have more than 50 subscribers. There are still a few spaces left.\r\n\r\nI may chop ‘n change trades around to fit the market conditions, which can be difficult to follow with everyone being in different time zones, but that is trading. I trade to make $$$ not to lose $$$.\r\n\r\nI was up at 3.30AM on a couple of mornings last week playing with trades. That is the reality of trading in the FX market, its open from Sunday at 5PM EST and closes the following Friday at 5PM EST. I am NOT interested in “that trade was closed whilst I was asleep!” If you are a serious trader you have little sleep between Sunday and Friday each week.\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day from my research, did I find anything I want to add to the PREMIUM SERVICE?\r\n\r\nThere are a couple of things I will introduce moving forward but overall, I feel good about the research I provide it is mostly brief and to the point. Those services that provide lots of commentary, I strongly suspect DO NOT TRADE. I struggle for hours as it is now and I consider myself damn good at time management.\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nThere will be no blog next weekend, we have friends flying in from the UK. The opportunities to trade will be slim. Plus, zero time for completing research and finding the 10 hours or so required to complete the blog from start to finish will just not be there. So, it is a see you in two weeks after this week’s review.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>LOOKING AHEAD THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nTHIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-19112017-1024x884.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"884\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-19112017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1014\" height=\"898\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\nOverall recent data from the EUROZONE has been good. We have seen a pullback from the recent 1.1860 highs. RSi (Relative Strength Indicator) is moving higher and given the better data, the bulls are trying to regain control once again. I think that we need to see a break higher above 1.1880 (BLACK LINE) for the bulls to be back in control.\r\n\r\nSupport is good circa. 1.1660 and on the chart below (PURPLE LINE) and more recently at 1.1750 (BURGUNDY LINE).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\nThe recent weakening USD has pulled cable higher. I am however always thinking that this pair is one news item away from a 100-pip fall and it could happen at any time.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows a bullish set of candles, which completely goes against my FUNDAMENTAL views regarding this pair. Price was rejected very strongly at 1.3260 last Friday. That rejection stopped me out of GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD longs at the time… bugger.\r\n\r\nI think that we range trade with this pair between the two Fibonacci levels of 23.6% at 1.3170 and 38% at 1.3260.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10415\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\nThis pair is under pressure as you can clearly see from the chart below. We were held up at 61.8% Fibonacci level last Friday. The spike from this low will allow traders such as me through the PREMIUM SERVICE to re-load short trades this week. The bigger the spike the better… bring it on.\r\n\r\nWe are getting close to 30 level on the RSi therefore, a couple of re-set trading sessions would suit me fine!!\r\n\r\nThere are several potential trading patterns one can use on the pair, for now I am running with a channel set up as this pair seems to like channels.\r\n\r\nAs long as the RBA remains neutral I cannot see this pair moving higher in the near term.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\nWe are getting closer to a 30 reading on the RSi. We can of course drop below but I am hoping for a spike to allow me to re-load PREMIUM SERVICE short trades.\r\n\r\nThe political uncertainty in New Zealand is driving this pair lower and for the foreseeable future I see no change in this connection.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers know what my target is to the downside with this pair, the candlestick pattern does look very bearish to me.\r\n\r\nBulls if there are any, will not be back in control of this pair unless we break back above 0.7000, which, seems an awfully long way away at the moment when one looks at current pricing.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10416\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\nBugger…\r\n\r\nI really want this pair above 1.2900 to short. After last Friday’s in line inflation print, the pair spiked to the 61.8% Fibonacci level and then pulled back.\r\n\r\nThe upward sloping channel is basically still intact on the chart below, so I still have some hope for now. Who am I kidding? This pair is bound to about turn and break through the trend line support and leave me behind!!\r\n\r\nWe have Retail Sales data this week. Does this mean that I may have to wait another week for my short entry?\r\n\r\nBelow 1.2725 would make me have to re-think my PLAN.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\nAm I dreaming with the pennant / flag patterns on the cart below? It is rather an awkward shape. The measured moves play to 1.0460 (BURGUNDY) and 1.0175 (BLACK).\r\n\r\nI am struggling to know what to do with this pair. The PREMIUM SERVICE has a small long trade, which is out of the money at the moment. I am not sure what to do with this pair, but I do know that longer-term I want to be long.\r\n\r\nI am working on the fact we are in a range of 0.9840 to a.0040.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10418\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\nBecause I am stupid I let 60 pips of profit disappear with this pair last Friday… argh!!\r\n\r\nRISK sentiment is ruling this pair at the moment as the NIKKEI sells off and uncertainty persists in Washington. Add into the mix treasury yields. Now ask me why did I give up my short so cheaply? Because I am stupid!!\r\n\r\nThis pair has 108.00 written all over it in my opinion. The 200 DAY SMA comes in around 111.80, which was original take profit level, but a break below here would NOT surprise me and a test of 110.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci level would seem reasonable to me for the shorter term.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10419\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nMost of the economic data releases this week are related to speeches by Central Bank leaders. Therefore, it is reactionary news, which of late I have not enjoyed much as it has been lacking conviction or momentum. The recent exceptions being the BOE Super Thursday and Draghi’s ECB Press Conference. There was certainly direction following these, but the rest… not my cup of tea.\r\n\r\nOf what remains, the following short list interests me: -\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> MONETARY POLICY MEETING MINUTES</u>.\r\n\r\nThese minutes surely to God cannot be as much of a snooze fest as the original statement release. It passed basically without a flicker. Philip Lowe also speaks about 12 hours after the minutes are published.\r\n\r\nThe RBA are neutral. It will be interesting to see if any timescales on policy were discussed plus any inklings vis-a-vis housing prices in the Australian market.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD:</u></strong><u> FOMC MEETING MINUTES.</u>\r\n\r\nIt’s not about this year, 2017 that has me including this item in this section, it is about future discussions into 2018. At the end of the day with a new FED chair moving in early next year, I am not expecting future policies to be changed or placed on hold. Central Banks are well oiled dinosaurs that move so slowly and like massive oil tankers when a change of policy is made in the sense that it takes oil tankers 5/6 miles to turnabout.\r\n\r\nRate hikes into 2018 is what will catch the eye in this release.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> CORE RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nI am looking to short the USD/CAD and add to my CORE SHORT POSITION. Therefore, I want the poor data to continue to give me the best entry level possible. The closer to 1.3000 the better…. I am waiting.\r\n\r\nBeing realistic however, last month’s reading was a dismal negative 0.7%. I would be astonished if a negative print was repeated in the run up months to Christmas.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nPersonally, I believe that we are in a consolidation period once again. Last week the USD was whacked and the commodity currencies were taken to the woodshed.\r\n\r\nThe majors and the cross rates in my opinion need to re-set. There were some massive moves over the past week. EUR/USD +800 pips, GBP/NZD about +600 pips or so and GBP/AUD about +500 pips.\r\n\r\nThe Monthly ATR (Average True Range) GBP/AUD is just under 1,000 pips so when you consider that 500 pips was the range last week, we need to consolidate the moves. Not that we have to consolidate with the cross-rate pairs, they are very volatile but you have to be aware of these facts into this week.\r\n\r\nWe are light on true economic data this week and therefore we will be at the will of the news wires… oh shit I can hear you saying.\r\n\r\nYes regretfully, it will be the Senate and the numbers of GOP senate members that will either vote yes or no on the TRUMP TAX REFUND. From what I can see it’s no longer tax reform, that is far too radical for dysfunctional politicians to stomach.\r\n\r\nBREXIT will feature as progress really needs to be established prior to the end of the year. We are soon into the season of lavish Christmas Parties in Brussels. The expense accounts will be out in full and the hospitality industry will move up from yellow to red alert as the cha ching of cash and need for extra credit card swipe machines intensifies.\r\n\r\nIf David Davis (UK Chief negotiator) doesn’t get some UK BREXIT positives on paper pre-Christmas, I can see a Tory party revolt and a new leader in place for early 2018. I write this and I am fully aware that no one with any grey matter in their heads would want the poison chalice of dealing with BREXIT, unless you do not mind shoving two fingers in the air to the EU and taking the no deal option…. enter Boris Johnson.\r\n\r\nI think therefore that trading USD majors especially the EUR/USD and USD/JPY will be very reactionary to US data and BREXIT will keep anything GBP tied up.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the commodity currencies should offer us option. The AUD and NZD currencies in particular are weak and trading very heavily. Whilst I believe we have to allow for resetting pullbacks to enter these currencies remain the best option for trading pairs with liquidity.\r\n\r\nThe NZD is especially under pressure politically and moves lower should continue as long as political uncertainties continue. The AUD is being pushed lower by the RBA. Hats off to Philip Lowe this is being done professionally and the move is to a large extent given what usually happens being conducted under the radar.\r\n\r\nI have already said we should wait for the commodity cross rates to reset so that leaves the smaller currencies and exotic pairs.\r\n\r\nI closed a number of trades last Friday pre-weekend on the failure of the AUD and NZD currencies. I still think that pairs like the AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, AUD/NZD, NZD/CAD etc. are still viable until the market reset is completed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\nPIPS ADDED LAST WEEK:           = +1,276 pips\r\n\r\nPIPS MONTH TO DATE:                = +1,445 pips\r\n\r\nYEAR TO DATE:                              = +11,847 pips\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nHoly crap a two-day trading week, give me more of that.\r\n\r\nI hope that you guys caught some of the moves. I know a couple of the newbie traders are copying most trade set-ups and I have heard from them vis-à-vis their delight.\r\n\r\nI still think we have a little more to go with the AUD and NZD weakness trades. As I have written in the blog already we need to see a reset of overbought and oversold conditions.\r\n\r\nThe cross rates have really been kind to me this past month or so. As I have mentioned on several occasions this year, we need to see sentiment and momentum. We had “RISK OFF” and the commodity currencies responded true to form. This type of trade has literally been out the market for two years.\r\n\r\nI am still however, not letting trades run beyond the 50 – 100 pip levels. I still do NOT trust this market.\r\n\r\nI am making a few changes for 2018.\r\n\r\nI have been checking out my competition, and whilst I have some issues to iron out basically I feel comfortable with what I have going with just a couple of changes here and there. It’s all about time. I am still a trader and need time to reflect and research. I cannot blast out 15 trades a day with 10 pip goals, that is just NOT me. But it is also very hard to try and trade SWING TRADING, in fact, I think it’s very much impossible of late and if it happens its pure fluke. But I am still trying as it is my core.\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTAL TRADING still wins out in my opinion and trading with Central Bank Monetary Policy is the core still for next year.\r\n\r\nI am looking at bringing back the LIVE “DRIVE THRU” webinar, but I need a software package that is good and works with Safari.\r\n\r\nSubscriptions will not increase in 2018.\r\n\r\nI am toying with adding another TRADING STYLE that I have been testing out recently. More about this early December once 90 days worthy of results are in.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nInto the year-end I think that I will get another shot at AUD and NZD weakness.\r\n\r\nThis SHOULD continue into 2018 as I am of the opinion that Central Bank divergence will become the trade moving forward.\r\n\r\nI am not 100% because of the uncertainty surrounding TRUMP. He wants a weak USD and he will talk down the USD but this will in no way be deemed to be intervention in the markets. It will be spun.\r\n\r\nI am still looking to get long GBP pairs across the board, but as mentioned recently I still believe that there is another substantial move lower in cable. The Theresa May situation and that added uncertainty makes me continue to believe that every day we trade GBP long we are risking a 100+ pip drop on the back of political fallout in the UK or a negative news item regarding BREXIT.\r\n\r\nI have my ARMAGGEDON GBP TRADES on a spreadsheet ready and armed to go!\r\n\r\nI am still looking to also get long the CHF across the board. This has to wait though until little rocket man is sorted out.\r\n\r\nLooking near term…\r\n\r\nSentiment is still mixed.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/SENTIMENT-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10403\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/SENTIMENT-19112017-768x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"768\" height=\"1024\" /></a><u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIt will probably be a slow start to trading next week. We will be news driven so I would prefer to see a European session out of the way first.\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD sentiment is still all over the place. Therefore, I will stay away as much as possible from the majors.</li>\r\n 	<li>Re-establish some cross-rate trades after the consolidation reset has taken place.</li>\r\n 	<li>Focus on re-establishing AUD and NZD short trades.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD HEDGES. I am looking for over 1.2850 to enter shorts. I am close to getting this following last Friday’s data. Hopefully some follow through early in the week will give me an entry level that I will be happy with.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4:3.2.  EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD, AUD and NZD currencies. Last Friday I had a huge clear-out and I am now in re-build mode on suitable pullbacks.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned last week, the CAD is on the back burner for now. I STILL have three HEDGED trades to work through. There is no rush, but I will freely admit I am sick of looking at them blocking up my broker account live trades data area!\r\n\r\nThe AUD and NZD I am patiently waiting for pullbacks to use the opportunity to re-load again across the board.\r\n\r\nThe market itself is still broadly range bound and daily moves on most days are for the most part quite limiting.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades. All three are HEDGED. No OUT trades are placed yet.\r\n\r\nPlus, I have a long CAD/JPY LIMIT ORDER in place but it is currently over 300 pips from the current market pricing.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: My belief is still that the USD/CAD is a short trade. I am waiting for 1.2850-1.2910 to establish 3 x “OUT” trades for my HEDGED trades.  I have my “OUT” trade LIMIT ORDERS in place at 1.2910. The question is whether I will be able to get my preferred entry level or not.\r\n\r\nThe recent highs have topped out around 1.2915 on two or three occasions. I am expecting USD strength to filter back through the market which will help my target entry levels. I want to use the USD strength to sell into this week or next week if possible and establish my “OUT” trades for these HEDGES.\r\n\r\nBe prepared, I could be waiting several weeks here until the market conditions are right.\r\n\r\nI have no plans currently to place / related trades against other pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 more AUD/NZD long trades in position as LIMIT ORDERS&gt;\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board as soon as I see a meaningful pullback to provide beneficial pricing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE AUD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently live I have a AUD/JPY short.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: - To add back trades across the board at the start of this coming week that I removed at the end of last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u><u> </u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIVE-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10405\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIVE-19112017-919x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"919\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIMIT-ORDERS-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10404\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIMIT-ORDERS-19112017-1024x991.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"991\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nHave you guys noticed the analysts to most brokers have been booted out into doing LIVE WEBINARS in an attempt to increase retail trader numbers for the year end and into 2018?\r\n\r\nGood Lord some of them I swear to God have never seen an actual trading platform before, they are so used to working off a BLOOMBERG terminal. If you want a giggle scout twitter, they will be there this week and probably every week through to Christmas.\r\n\r\nSo, the brokers intentions are clear. BONUS $$$ and FREE WEBINARS. Be very careful on the offers there are NO free lunches in FX.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> INTO THE CLOSE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #156 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n19th November 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'KIWI WILL REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10420-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-01-18 13:58:16', '2018-01-18 18:58:16', '', 10420, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10420-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10797, 1, '2018-01-18 13:59:05', '2018-01-18 18:59:05', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe previous week it was a DRAGHI THUNDERBOLT that hit the FX market and last week it was Mark Carney’s turn. Carney is seen as a bit of a DOVE more so than a HAWK by the market; I see him as a “Flip-Flopper” more than anything else, however last Thursday with the precision of one of Daenerys Targaryen’s dragons SPAT FIRE over the assembled and eagerly listening cable bulls.\r\n\r\nWe saw moves of 200 pips lower with GBP/USD and the crosses which are monsters at the best of times moved considerably more, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD circa. 400 pips range on the day.\r\n\r\nFrom my own perspective, I did NOT play the BOE Super Thursday very well. I was expecting a rally on the announcement into which as I had written to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers during the week I was looking to fade as I was expecting a DOVISH HIKE.\r\n\r\nWe had a DOVISH HIKE but the selloff started in the late Asian session from the prior day and continued through the European session. As the announcement came basically the selloff intensified.\r\n\r\nI was set up mentally for cable to fail, but not in the way it happened.\r\n\r\nI talk a great deal about RISK MANAGEMENT, TRADE MANAGEMENT and TRADING PSYCHOLOGY, which I am now calling MIND MANAGEMENT. I never had my MIND MANAGEMENT in the correct place.\r\n\r\nI only partially participated in the GBP move and made poor selections of trading pairs on the day. I banked small losses. Privately, I made reasonable $$$ scalping the market. Overall, however, I was very disappointed with my Super Thursday performance.\r\n\r\nWe move on…\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE as at 31st October 2017, has now beaten its annual net pip target of 10,000 pips. To the end of October 2017, the pip total stands at 10,402 pips.\r\n\r\nI am delighted… Happy Days.\r\n\r\nThe 2016 total was a record at 13,575 pips. Whilst I have always beaten the 10,000-pip target since the PREMIUM SERVICE started in 2014, last year’s total will a tall order. But as it is often said… “Onwards and Upwards”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.\r\n</u>\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>BOE</u></strong><u>: SUPER THURSDAY &amp; PMi DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nA few weeks ago, when Mark Carney announced that UK interest rates could be rising earlier than previously thought to fight off inflation which was running at an annual rate of c.3%, I wrote saying that “CARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET”.\r\n\r\nThis move from DOVE to HAWK meant that the cable which previously had been under pressure from BREXIT leapt up like a rat up a drainpipe and sped towards 1.3300. There was talk of a re-test of 52W highs around 1.3650.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday Carney announced basically a DOVISH 0.25% rate hike… a one and done event. His commentary was as DOVISH as it comes and the cable fell like a lead balloon.\r\n\r\nThe unwinding of cable longs started hours earlier as the realism of a DOVISH HIKE came more and more into the reality and traders of all sizes squared off positions.\r\n\r\nThe MPC vote was 7-2 in favour of the hike. The two dissenters being Jon Cunliffe and David Ramsden.\r\n\r\nThe main takeaways from Carney’s press conference were in my opinion: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>MPC sees wage growth picking up in 2018</li>\r\n 	<li>MPC believes that the tighter labour market will boost wages.</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT deal will affect the exchange rates</li>\r\n 	<li>Rates will be adjusted either up or down on a BREXIT resolution.</li>\r\n 	<li>MPC wants to use the Bank rate as an instrument of BOE policy rather than QE.</li>\r\n 	<li>Rates must be higher before reversing QE.</li>\r\n 	<li>Inflation back at 2% will help make BREXIT a success\r\n(God knows what the feck they were smoking to come up with this line!!</li>\r\n 	<li>UK rate decision not driven by the exchange rate….\r\n(My arse!!)</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy thoughts are that it was a mistake to raise rates. Asked by the press did he think it was a mistake, Mark Carney responded with it was a “nimble response” to an unprecedented set of circumstances. The fact that cable sold off only adds fuel to UK inflation. It was cables devaluation that is basically what has fueled the inflation position. Ironic that a rate hike caused cable to devalue again, the irony of that fact should not be lost on the MPC!\r\n\r\nUK interest rates are to remain low for an extended period well into 2019.\r\n\r\nWith the rate hike out of the way we can now concentrate on the main event… BREXIT\r\n\r\nUK PMi data last week was stronger than expected, and took me by surprise I only expected a beat with service PMi:\r\n\r\nConstruction              50.8 versus 48.3\r\nManufacturing           56.3 versus 55.8\r\nServices                      55.6 versus 53.3\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD:</u></strong><u> FOMC, FED CHAIR, GOP TAX PLAN, ADP &amp; NFP.</u>\r\n\r\nA huge amount of economic and political data last week from the U.S. All this and not even a mention of TWITTER.\r\n\r\nThe FED CHAIR announcement went off without incident. JEROME POWELL, subject to senate approval will replace Janet Yellen next February. When the announcement was made, I had to hold my head back to stop the blood from my nose bleed dripping all over my apple keyboard. It was such a shock to my body to have a TRUMP announcement without drama attached… total shock to my system.\r\n\r\nA couple of points for dinner table conversation about Janet Yellen’s tenure at the FED.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>When she became FED CHAIR the USD (DXY) was at 81.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>The DXY has been falling since TRUMPS inauguration 101.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Today after 10 months of falling it still stands at 94.00.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy point here is that after the GFC when the DXY stood at 70.00, following on from Ben Bernanke she guided the DXY to about the mid-point given that in 2000 the DXY was at 120.00. Personally, without TRUMP the DXY would be well into triple digits by now.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC statement a day earlier passed us by without incident.  The FX market did its usual thing by the odd flexing here and there but to be honest it was an all “fur coat and no knickers” event.\r\n\r\nThe TAX PLAN release was for me, mixed into the background as the BOE press conference fall out was still in full swing. The previous day there was a rumour in the Asian session that reductions in the corporate tax rate would either be phased in or phased out, or both…. From what I can gather this was a bullsh*t rumour.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the jobs data; ADP was a nice bear 235k against an expectation of 202k. NFP missed at 261k versus 312k. The unemployment rate dipped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Hourly earnings 0.0% versus 0.2% expected.\r\n\r\nJobs data was poor so the USD strengthened go figure.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-0512017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10338\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-0512017-1024x705.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"705\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10339\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-05112017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10349\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10350\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10348\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10351\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10352\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10353\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10354\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThe Antipodean currencies rule this week!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD:</u></strong><u> RBNZ RATE STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE</u>.\r\n\r\nI am NOT expecting any fireworks this week. Grant aka “Frank” Spencer has already stated no change and dovish for an extended period.\r\n\r\nI will be looking to see what, if anything, is said vis-à-vis the new Labour Party coalition governments intentions to expand the role of the RBNZ.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> RBA RATE STATEMENT &amp; MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nI am not expecting any move on interest rates. Philip Lowe has been very straightforward since becoming governor. He is clear and unambiguous and his is his own man. He has been happy of late to remain neutral and is in no rush to increase interest rates, far from it.\r\n\r\nAs with most monetary policy and rate statements the “verbal’s” give us the clues. I am expecting more of the same. No fireworks just a status quo report.\r\n\r\nThis may change in 2018, but for now it is only the FED that has an open normalization policy on interest rates. This suits other currencies like the AUD because the result with FED policy should be that the USD strengthens based upon interest rate differentiation causing other currencies to weaken.\r\n\r\nA weaker currency is always preferred and this can be achieved by the likes of the RBA with no work. It’s all in theory done for them by the FED.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThere was a lot jammed into last week that made me believe that caution was the best route forward. Trading FX always has RISK involved and at the end of the day it’s all about MANAGING RISK in conjunction with both TRADE MANAGEMENT and MIND MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nLast week finished with USD strength returning and I see this renewed USD strength remaining with the markets into the early part of this week, if not more than that.\r\n\r\nGeopolitical factors such as “THE TRUMP GOODWILL TOUR OF ASIA”, which was given a good old dose U.S. hospitality with nuclear weapons loaded bombers flying up and down the Korean coast. It doesn’t bear thinking about.\r\n\r\nBREXIT and poor old Theresa May will hit the headlines this week now that Carney’s BOE super Thursday event is behind us. However, we should remember that moves in cable are still just one UK negative BREXIT announcement from a fall, or one positive announcement away from a spike higher.\r\n\r\nOIL appears to be settling around the USD$60.00 level. Anything higher will get the U.S. shale production lifting off which will drive prices back towards USD$50.00 per barrel.\r\n\r\nSo…\r\n\r\nWith that as my back drop how will I be approaching the FX market this week.\r\n\r\nWithout much economic data, this week and with the “RED” FX data emanating from mainly AUD and NZD, one would think I had a pretty clear plan in place. Unfortunately, with all the geopolitical nonsense around and with TRUMP off home soil the potential for gaffs is heightened.\r\n\r\nThe USD is news driven at the moment, and, if the USD is news driven almost everything else currency wise falls victim.\r\n\r\nI have cross rates that interest me and they are a great option away from the USD.  The JPY crosses are of interest but I never seem to personally have great success with them. Recently, the NZD/JPY has been good and the AUD/JPY is back on my RADAR once again after closing it just ahead of NFP last week. But with TRUMP in Asia maybe the JPY should not be such a focus. However, the parabolic rise in the NIKKEI does have me alert to JPY shorts.\r\n\r\nHaving written all that, I still see being long the USD as the immediate route. I do not think it will last for long as I see this USD strength technical and I expect the move higher to stop and then USD weakness will come back and force the DXY lower. (See the DXY chart below)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/DXY-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10340\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/DXY-05112017-1024x520.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"520\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOverall, I would be looking to establish positions in cross rates. GBP crosses may need some time to wash out oversold conditions. EUR crosses long in the medium term excite me, but not quite yet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nPIPS ADDED LAST WEEK:           = +122 pips\r\nPIPS MONTH TO DATE:                = +122 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:                              = +10,524 pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nOCTOBER 2017:\r\nMonthly total = 2,896 pips\r\nTOTAL to 31.10.2017 = 10,402 pips\r\n\r\nNOTE: I have a contingent liability of 700 pips sitting with 3 x USD/CAD hedges, which may be deducted from YTD total.\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying that October was a great month.\r\n\r\nThe hedges and heavy trading with cross rates has stretched the drawdowns which whilst I am not happy with as a purist it is a by-product of hedging and cross rate trading when you need wider stops in play to cover volatility. This obviously increases RISK.\r\n\r\nAll that to one side; you trade with your eyes wide open and with RISK MANAGEMENT in play.\r\n\r\nRISK to loss trades for the last month was 79% / 21% and year to date I am now finally in line with my objective of 75% / 25%.\r\n\r\nThe pip total for the year is now just 1,289 pips behind the 2016 record of 13,575. I do not see last year’s total being beaten this year and frankly given everything that has gone by this year so far, to be close to 10,000 at this time of the year is frankly incredible.\r\n\r\nThe split of trade styles continues to consolidate:\r\n\r\n497 Total trades to 31.12.2017.\r\n\r\nFLASH                       = 47 trades    = 9.5%\r\nRADAR                      = 57 trades     =11.5%\r\nFUNDAMENTAL      = 158 trades    = 32%\r\nPOSITION                 = 235 trades   = 47%\r\n\r\nI am not too sure how to add more commentary to this other than since the middle of 2015, and nothing has fundamentally changed in my opinion, day trading to swing trading, which was what I was when I started trading has become a thing of rarity to obtain what I determine a trading consistency. Since mid 2015 my reliance on shorter term trades via FLASH &amp; RADAR trades has lessened and my definitions of these trade styles need to be updated for 2018.\r\n\r\nThe markets this year have resulted in another fundamental change in the sense that the timed length of my trades has lessened. The market volatility and swings in sentiment and direction have created on many occasions trades with longer term horizons being closed early or being heavily modified. It is frustrating and annoying to trade and to follow I get that, but the market is what it is.\r\n\r\nWhen I re-define the trade style definitions for 2018, I will try to get a set of working parameters in place.\r\n\r\nI am looking at linking the ATR to the stop on trades somehow to avoid having to do a trade amendment. This reduces administration time but increases the contingent liability of your broker account when it may not be required. It is not easy.\r\n\r\nI am working on ideas for 2018 to add more value and to MANAGE RISK.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI struggled last week and played the “Super Thursday” like a bloody numpty. I have beaten myself up about it and now I am ready to move forward.\r\n\r\nWe have USD strength back in the market, but I think a lot of USD long traders will get caught out in the medium term. Should they ramp up position sizes / I am still a believer in trading nimble. Call me chicken, call me what you like but in a news driven trading environment in which we operate at the moment, it is very difficult to be strategic and it is virtually impossible to let trades mature and add.\r\n\r\nMy exception but it may NOT be your favourite…\r\n\r\nI have been long the AUD/NZD for about two years. It has been a great $$$ earner but you must take the rough with the smooth. At time I sit out huge loss positions and add to my overall position on a regular basis. Not everyone can trade like this and not everyone wants to. I could NOT and nor would I dream of this style of trading for USD or JPY related currencies. We are in a massive unwinding pattern and bit by bit, piece by piece, this pair is unfolding back to about 1.2000 – 1.2500 in my opinion. I thought that we would have been there by now to be honest.\r\n\r\nWe have a Labour led collation with NZ First in power. They have a strong mandate politically and economically which when pushed through is a game changer. Personally, I have no problem being long AUD/NZD back at 1.0540. Fundamentally, I know where fair value sits and we are a long way away.\r\n\r\nThis pair gives me between 10%-15% of my annual pip return, maybe a little more.\r\n\r\nIn a news driven environment I am trying to look away from USD, JPY and CHF which are very responsive to news.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, the EUR and GBP cross rates are excellent options to look at. These have been what can only be described this year as “great little earners” but…. Because of their volatility, I have suffered bigger percentage draw down losses on cross rate trades. Striking the balance is hard.\r\n\r\nMoving on and looking into the future…\r\n\r\nHumour me…\r\n\r\nLet’s assume the leader of the “FREE WORLD” has a great “GOODWILL TRIP” with no fuck ups and delivers a blueprint for lasting peace in the region.\r\n\r\nWhen this happens, I am short CHF across the board. This pair is being held back because of geopolitical tensions and the GOLD flight to safety trade.\r\n\r\nIn the background negotiations between Rex and Mathis and representatives of little rocket man are taking place when an agreement is tied it won’t be rockets that soar but the CHF. I will be getting long a combination of GBP/CHF, EUR/CHF, AUD/CHF, CAD/CHF, NZD/CHF and USD/CHF or short CHF/JPY.\r\n\r\nIn the interim however its cross rates for now. I have to let the recent moves flush out. I have levels in mind.\r\n\r\nI want to mention the GBP.\r\n\r\nThis currency is a pain in the arse. We are at all times a news headline away from a breakdown or a spike. However, very soon, probably faster than I think the BREXIT deal is either going to start to come together or fall flat on its arse. One way or another we are going to have the move of all moves in the GBP because the uncertainty will be over. We will be dealing with facts only.\r\n\r\nI want to be long GBP/USD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CHF and short EUR/GBP… bigly. I am very close to taking extremely long term trades and placing them in a separately funded account allowing for growth based upon Monthly ATR levels plus!\r\n\r\nLook at current levels and the pre-BREXIT levels, there are about 10,000 pips coming back into play in my opinion, and that is to only take us back to the time of the vote. Take away the uncertainty at the time of the vote and there are more.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD      now 1.3100   pre-BREXIT  1.4500\r\nGBP/AUD      now 1.7100   pre-BREXIT  2.0000\r\nGBP/CAD      now 1.6700   pre-BREXIT  1.7200\r\nGBP/NZD      now 1.8900   pre-BREXIT  2.1500\r\nGBP/CHF      now 1.3100   pre-BREXIT  1.4500\r\n\r\nBasically, there is a great opportunity here and whilst I cannot see 10,000 pips being grabbed it would be great to be able to capture maybe 5,000 -6,000 pips.\r\n\r\nThe RISK / REWARD is what is on my action item list next. We have moved quite away from the extreme lows so I have levels to work with and establish absolute RISK.\r\n\r\nI will provide an update on this very soon.\r\n\r\nWith regards to MARKET SENTIMENT its looking consistent this week. USD strength is almost across the board. This should bode well into early trading this week. (Do NOT forget TRUMP)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/MARKET-SENTIMENT-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10343\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/MARKET-SENTIMENT-05112017-780x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"1024\" />\r\n</a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies.\r\n\r\nThe CAD is on the back burner for now. I STILL have three HEDGED trades to work through.\r\n\r\nThe NZD I am waiting for a pullback to use the opportunity to re-load again across the board.\r\n\r\nThe market itself at the moment is range bound and daily moves are for the most part quite limiting. Obviously, days such as “Super Thursday”, which combined with the TRUMP TAX PLAN and FED CHAIR announcement are few and far between. We even had a short squeeze thrown into the same day for good measure.\r\n\r\nThe market needs to re-balance before we move forward once again. With the week being a great deal quieter, I have a feeling that it could be a slow week which, will allow of stretched conditions to work through charts etc.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades. All three are HEDGED. No OUT trades are placed yet.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: My belief is still that the USD/CAD is a short trade. I was waiting for 1.3000 to establish 3 x “OUT” trades for my HEDGED trades.  That looks like a bit of a dream level today. The recent highs have topped out around 1.2915 on two or three occasions. That level is someway away at the moment. I am expecting USD strength to continues for some time and at the moment there is a disconnect between the CAD and WTi, I want to use the USD strength to sell into this week or next week if possible and establish my “OUT” trades for these HEDGES.\r\n\r\nI have no plans currently to place / related trades against other pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 4 x live AUD/NZD and a GBP/NZD long trades and NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF short trades.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a NZD/USD, NZD/JPY and NZD/CAD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board as soon as I see a meaningful pullback to provide beneficial pricing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIVE-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10342\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIVE-05112017-862x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"862\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIMIT-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10341\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIMIT-05112017-1024x943.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"943\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing new this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #154 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n5th November 2017', 'CARNEY SPITS FIRE AT CABLE BULLS', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10355-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-01-18 13:59:05', '2018-01-18 18:59:05', '', 10355, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10355-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10798, 1, '2018-01-18 13:59:37', '2018-01-18 18:59:37', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week’s title for my blog was: -\r\n\r\n<strong>WILL THE ECB PULL IT OFF?</strong>\r\n\r\nThe answer was a resounding “Yes” ….\r\n\r\nDespite the odds stacked against him Mario Draghi did a modern-day Houdini act. He delivered a “THUNDERBOLT” to the markets and silenced EURO bulls inside a minute.\r\n\r\nI will comment more about this later.\r\n\r\nLast week was like the week before lots of pips and $$$ being generated, primarily on the back of NZD weakness across the board.\r\n\r\nI cleared my 4 x HEDGED trades (2 x EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD) with net profits, only to enter three more on the back of the BOC last Wednesday. I am still a believer that the USD/CAD will be going lower than 1.2000 and that the BOC will surprise hike once again. Having not hedged trades for over two years to jump in with 7 in the same month is a bit of a nose-bleed situation.\r\n\r\nI personally view HEDGING as a trading tool to effectively “park” trades that you are in, that are moving sideways or against you but FUNDAMENTALLY you believe that you are directionally correct.\r\n\r\nOn many occasions, you can be focused on trades that are “up in your face” and let other trades go by. HEDGING removes this. I hedged last Wednesday, and I am still waiting to activate my exit strategy.\r\n\r\nMoving on.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE has now achieved its annual target of net 10,000 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong>The total for 2017 now stands at 10,702 pips</strong>\r\n\r\nI am delighted with this because I have achieved this despite the fact that I moved home this year, trekking 13 hours across Canada out of Quebec into Nova Scotia, which took up a lot of my time. Plus, the move was followed by a 25-day trip to Australia and New Zealand, moving to a new house, with all the planning and scheduling with the trip as well, certainly placed an additional stress on trading. Remote trading is at the best of time very stressful. It was when all said and done about a three-month event, therefore to hit target with over two months of the year left is pleasing.\r\n\r\nAs my good friend, Roger would say “Happy Days”, I would add “Fecking” into the middle of his little saying.\r\n\r\nThe following section was in last week’s blog and I am leaving it unchanged (except for Italics) again this week, with the added couple of comments: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>As we enter the final couple of months in 2017, If you are thinking about FX trading as an additional income stream, why not get on board now? Get used to the way I do things, get familiar with the PREMIUM SERVICE system and get ready for blast off in 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>Between now and the end of 2017 there are still pips to be gathered and $$$ to make!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>My annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight</em><em>, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets having greater RISK attached, my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>My point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Single MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Anticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Less PREMIUM SERVICE</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Annual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)</em><em>\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                               = USD$9,000</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Working on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n</em><em>50% of my suggested trades\r\n</em><em>50% of my entries on time\r\n</em><em>50% of my exits on time\r\n</em><em>You could still generate a NET INCOME\r\n</em><em>after subscription                                            of USD$4,0000</em>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Obviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>RISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.</em>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>BOC</u></strong><u>: INTEREST RATE DECISION.</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged last week. This was not a complete surprise as recent financial data had been sliding away.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, BOC Governor, was quite dovish, but now that I understand him a little better he was really being nothing other than “matter of fact” with his language. Nevertheless, the CAD weakened like crazy, moving the USD/CAD about 150 pips higher to 1.2800. Potentially there is the chance of a 1.3000 re-test especially if you add in USD strength.\r\n\r\nWhilst, I think he sounded dovish, Poloz also amended forward forecasting quite a bit. Both the 2017 growth was revised up and the same for 2018, he also was very clear stating that less monetary stimulus would be required into the Canadian Economy.\r\n\r\nThe old chestnuts about Inflation risks to the downside, excess capacity in the Labour Market, softness in wage growth and elevated household debt all featured vis-a-vis the effects on these from higher interest rates.\r\n\r\nPoloz focused a great deal on lower inflation so reading between the lines the chances of another hike in 2017 look a little optimistic at this stage. We should not get too carried away here as 4 weeks ago we were expecting another hike this year, it could all turn around again in the next 2/3 weeks and a December move once again becomes a possibility.\r\n\r\nOne thing I have learned in trading FX for 10 years is never say never; even with a Central Bank.\r\n\r\nMy bias with the CAD, referring to USD/CAD is short-term Canadian weakness to be replaced at the turn of next year at the latest with CAD strength and the USD/CAD moving back lower towards 1.2000 once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB INTEREST RATE &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\n<u>THE DRAGHI THUNDERBOLT:</u>\r\n\r\nFair play the Pizza Boy pulled it off!\r\n\r\nAs mentioned last week the forward guidance provided was pretty much in line with what Draghi regurgitated to the assembled unsullied in Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nThe key takeaway was that the asset purchases would fall from the current €60 billion per month to €30 billion per month with effect from January 2018 and run at least until September 2018 or beyond. Expiring maturing securities that the ECB currently owns will be re-invested.\r\n\r\nThe key phrase from Draghi that was used on a number of occasions was “Extended period of time”, I was looking out for a well-used FED term “Transitory” and at times I was a little distracted but I do not recall a “Transitory” being used. However, “Extended period of time” for as long as necessary featured quite a bit.\r\n\r\nDraghi stated that there would be NO interest rate increase until the end of the Asset Purchases (QE) that means October 2018 at the earliest. That was like a knife straight through the middle of all the aspiring Euro bull’s hearts.\r\n\r\nBasically, Draghi was as dovish as he could be highlighting the only thing that he could highlight as an area of concern that was keeping the ECB accommodative moving forward, that was inflation, or rather the lack of it. He could not focus on other economic data as generally speaking all EUROZONE data has been improving of late. The only blemish is inflation. This was his focus.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD fell on his prepared statement and subsequent Q &amp; A through his press conference just a few pips shy of 200 pips. I would say that if I still lived in Marbella, Spain I would be able to hear the “Draghi” champagne corks popping all the way from Frankfurt.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nEUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nThis is going to be made into a Christmas pantomime.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont was going to announce independence then he wasn\'t … wait 30 minutes longer and he was definitely going to announce it.\r\n\r\nWell…\r\n\r\nHe didn’t and the best that I can make out is that he wants more elections that Madrid won’t agree to!\r\n\r\nI think that we are back at square one.\r\n\r\nThere are meetings scheduled and discussions within the Catalan parliament but with Madrid holding all the keys now it all seems rather old news to me now.\r\n\r\nThe funniest piece of news last Friday, was that at the same time as the Catalonian government were voting on declaring independence the Madrid parliament was voting through Article 155 to take away all the powers of Catalonia.\r\n\r\nLate Friday, I noticed on the wires that Puidgemont could get a jail sentence of up to 30 years for his recent actions.\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\nGARY COHN\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\nThat was last week’s list….\r\n\r\nHere is this week’s list….\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\nAs far as I can gather it’s an either-or decision for the president who believes his key roles under his job description as leader of the free world are: -\r\n\r\nKeep the Stock Market going up at all costs.\r\nKeep interest rates low.\r\nArgue on twitter with as many people as possible.\r\n\r\nInsult families of service people who have made the ultimate sacrifice for their country.\r\n\r\nSlag off the press. Unless he likes the reporting its “FAKE NEWS”\r\n\r\nLast Friday an unnamed White House source said that THE DONALD was leaning towards POWELL. Is this FAKE NEWS? Rule nothing out at all. Just because BLOOMBERG who delivered the news believes that they were given an exclusive means nothing vis-à-vis this administration.\r\n\r\nThe bookies still have POWELL &amp; TAYLOR as the dream ticket possibly filling the CHAIR and VICE CHAIR roles. It could be more like a fecking nightmare for them with TRUMP as President if this is true and plays out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECONOMIC-DATA-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10267\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECONOMIC-DATA-29102017-1024x934.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"934\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10268\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-29102017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10282\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10283\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10281\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10284\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10285\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10286\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10287\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThis week is packed and will be volatile, there are key events dotted throughout the week. The following are the pick from my perspective and the ones that interest me the most.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> GDP &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nGDP is on Tuesday and the jobs data is released the same as NFP on Friday.\r\n\r\nThe CAD$ is weak following some poor data and then a very dovish BOC policy statement last week. Positioning for the CAD was very heavily based on CAD strength, I am one of those traders, in fact I have hedged my CAD short positions for the shorter term. I have NOT ruled out a hike before the end of 2017 and the data that the market feeds off has little impact on how the BOC thinks. The last interest rate hike for example was a surprise.\r\n\r\nCAD banks have re-positioned themselves, vis-à-vis their thoughts on interest rate increases and whilst in the main they see hikes early into 2018 only a couple are still believing that December 2017 should NOT be ruled out.\r\n\r\nThe data this week will either place what many would call the final nail in the coffin on no rate hikes in 2017, or if data is good maybe positioning will change.\r\n\r\nThe previous reading on GDP was 0%\r\nThis month the expectation is for 0.1%\r\nEmployment last month was +10,000\r\nThis Month the market is expecting +13,600\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMi.</u>\r\n\r\nMy God that was a quick month…\r\n\r\nIt only seems a week or so ago I was predicting and got right, what I am about to predict again.\r\n\r\nLast month: -\r\n\r\nManufacturing 55.1\r\nConstruction 48.1\r\nServices 53.6\r\n\r\nThis month the market expects: -\r\n\r\nManufacturing 55.9\r\nConstruction 48.9\r\nServices 53.3\r\n\r\nThis month I expect to see more of the same. Manufacturing and Construction to miss estimates and Services in line.\r\n\r\nThis information although backward looking is good from a BREXIT position, although PMi data is rather over-shadowed this week by the clatter of BOE data, none more important than the eagerly awaited interest rate decision.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> INFLATION REPORT, INTEREST RATE, MPC VOTES &amp; CARNEY.</u>\r\n\r\nThis is it; Carneys biggest meeting so far. For me this is bigger than his 2 “mile” walk down the BOE corridor the day after the BREXIT vote, to announce more QE and a rate cut.\r\n\r\nHe is now on the brink of raising rates solely because inflation is a 3% above the 2% objective. Everything else in the UK is up in the air both politically and economically.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD has strengthened of late on the back of the expected rate increase, although USD strength is pulling it back towards 1.3000 again.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is still a shambles and the chances of a “NO DEAL” is quickly becoming what many believe will be the outcome. I have always said that the two-year time scale to tie up the loose ends to exit was challenging. Leave it to politicians and we have what can only be expected… a huge fu*k up.\r\n\r\nMany people have argued in the media that a 0.25% basis point increase will do nothing to stop inflation rising as it is “transitory”, if that\'s the case DO NOT raise rates!\r\n\r\nWage growth is a full 1% behind inflation and the proposed 0.25% rate increase will no doubt be passed on in full to households, increasing household debt and further pressures on family budgets will be felt.\r\n\r\nI make no apologies for raising this point again. BREXIT negotiations have NOT got past how much the divorce will cost, never mind the actual issues to address. WE haven’t even heard the word TRADE much of late. The trade deal will be so complex to manage and agree upon.\r\n\r\nCarney must see this. He must see the timetable for BREXIT = better than 50% chance of a NO DEAL. To raise interest rates with this backdrop could go down in the history books as foolish and seriously lacking of any vision.\r\n\r\nIt will be a very interesting announcement this Thursday. The market is anticipating a 0.25% rate increase and 9-0 on the MPC votes in favour of the increase.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> TRADE BALANCE &amp; RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nPolitical calamities appear all over the globe. The Malcolm Turnbull government has now lost control of parliament following a legal intervention precluding dual nationality citizens living in Australia the ability to represent in parliament.\r\n\r\nThe High court ruled that Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is ineligible to remain in Parliament as he has both Aussie and Kiwi citizenships. A bi-election now takes place and Turnbull is now looking for support from minorities to vote with his party to keep the government in play.\r\n\r\nThis political development over hangs the economic data with the view to sentiment moving forward as rallies will probably be sold into should data releases be good for the economy. The political uncertainty will trump economic data and therefore I would use rallies as selling opportunities.\r\n\r\nThe numbers expected are:\r\n\r\nRetail Sales 0.6% last month was a dreadful -0.5%\r\nTrade balance AUD$1.20 Billion versus last month AUD$0.99 Billion\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> ADP, NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT DATA &amp; AVERAGE EARNINGS.</u>\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP circus continues, with the next round of U.S. employment data. The focus will be on average hourly earnings to see if the economy can generate some inflation.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s “transitory” beliefs will be put to the test as we hit the next round of Inflation and jobs data.\r\n\r\nWe all wait with baited breath.\r\n\r\nBottom line, she is raising rates in December come hell or very high water.\r\n\r\nADP Expected 191,000, last month it was 135,000.\r\nNFP Expected 311,000, last month it was -33,000.\r\nAverage Hourly Earnings this month 0.2% last month it was 0.5%\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nWe are jam packed with news events this coming week so you will probably not be too surprised with my thoughts for the coming week\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The EUR/USD has triggered a Head and Shoulders pattern. It will NOT be a straightforward drop lower to its measured move target. At the same time the DXY (USD Index) has an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern in play (see chart below). This will NOT be a fast move higher either.<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10269\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-29102017-1024x493.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"493\" /></a></li>\r\n 	<li>The appointment of the FED CHAIR / VICE CHAIR rumoured to be POWELL / TAYLOR, the “dream team” ticket is being viewed widely as USD positive.This news if released this week should therefore support the Inverted Head and Shoulders move with the DXY.</li>\r\n 	<li>For good measure, we have an FOMC Statement this week. How many “transitory’s” will there be this time around. Yellen will probably announce at this release that she is NOT extending her stay at the FED beyond February 2018.Will the FOMC be USD positive? I would say YES. She cannot suddenly turn dovish after her last Oscar winning performance… or can she?</li>\r\n 	<li>S. employment is always a bit of a lottery and last month the adverse weather was used in advance to say that the numbers should be treated basically as meaningless.This month however a more usual number is expected. The question is will it be USD positive or negative?\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would not be writing this blog!</li>\r\n 	<li>We have a major BOE announcement on Thursday. How Carney deals with the peripherals not as much the rate decision is of greater importance to me moving forward.Nevertheless; this is the MAJOR piece of data this week. However, GBP moves should remain very focused to GBP related pairs.</li>\r\n 	<li>We have CAD jobs at the same time as NFP, the opportunity for a double whammy exists with the CAD should the Cad jobs data be weak and the US data strong.Moves with antipodean currencies on NZD and AUD should just affect local crosses as well.\r\n\r\nI would view any “RIPS” with AUD and NZD opportunities to sell into and obtain good shorting prices.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nWhen you look at my bullet points I am giving a very USD positive (strength) viewpoint and for the time being I am biased that way. However, DO NOT LEAP in with full sized positions and here is why.\r\n\r\nTRUMP is on a goodwill mission to Asia at the end of the week, heaping TRUMP LOVE all over Asia.\r\n\r\nTRUMP is full of himself, full of shite and full of bravado, he is a Mr. Magoo character, leaving chaos and disorder behind wherever he treads. He cannot help himself. The TWEETS will be flowing. Before he leaves, the TWEETS about how great he is will be flowing.\r\n\r\nTrade smaller positions, stay on your toes. TRUMP has a FED announcement before he goes on his “goodwill Trip” and nothing ever passes off smoothly.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, as time has moved forward his true colours are being displayed and having given him the benefit of the doubt for so long, my opinion of him is just that he is no more than at best a walking, talking, tweeting hemorrhoid. I am sure he must have great qualities somewhere, but I can’t see them.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nLook at cross-rate pairs to trade and stay away from currencies that will be directly affected by TRUMP fuck ups… USD, JPY and CHF.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 120px;\"><u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL:             +1,543 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +2,655 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +10,702 net pips</p>\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n10,702 pips for 2017 to date…\r\n\r\nHappy fecking days…\r\n\r\nI still must work off the USD/CAD hedges, which will not be easy as I am still bullish the CAD medium / longer-term and believe that I should have added more long trades in on the BOC Rate decision day as it was telegraphed what was going to happen. I was a little stupid when that was happening. I played that news poorly.\r\n\r\nIt was a great couple of weeks with the cross rates really delivering. We are in consolidation mode at the moment and are waiting for the next move.\r\n\r\nCable will be of interest this week. I have read that many commentators and analysts believe that the 0.25% hike is already baked into the GBP/USD. My arse it is. I want to be ready on Thursday to capture pips on GBP cross rates.\r\n\r\nIf Carney does NOT hike the GBP should be decimated. You can have a negative outcome on a rate hike, rare, but possible. I am not expecting this as things stand at the moment with cable.\r\n\r\nIt is a busy week this coming week and we enter the week lighter than usual with LIVE trades.\r\n\r\nI mentioned on several occasions recently, and, I know some of you thought that I was leaving the party early, that my reasons for exiting many of the open trades early last week were based upon the fact that we had reached over bought and over sold conditions. Plus, we had a Draghi moment to consider.\r\n\r\nI DID NOT participate on ECB day, I could not get 20-30 pip pullbacks with the EUR/USD, in particular, to let me in and also the crosses were suffering across the board. I decided to do something else and be a voyeur trader from time to time during the day.\r\n\r\nFriday was a crap shoot. It was nothing more than a Las Vegas day in Forex. I will NO LONGER participate in those days any more. Even NFP has more sentiment and direction, for me to write that is huge.<u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSo, the last two weeks were “Win-Win” situations vis-à-vis the NZD. Now we move forward.\r\n\r\nMy focus remains with the NZD and now the GBP as well.\r\n\r\nNZD: I expect a pullback before we head lower towards 0.6500 in NZD/USD. We can and probably will go even lower. Nothing from the media news in New Zealand suggests anything remotely positive for the NZD currency, “RALLIES” “SPIKES” and “RIPS” are to be sold into.\r\n\r\nI will be adding but I will try my best to be as selective as possible and not be a NZD slut trader!!\r\n\r\nGBP: There are opportunities here this week. Thursday is Carney’s biggest moment. As stated earlier in the blog it’s not about the hike it\'s the statement and how the BOE view matters moving forward.\r\n\r\nDO NOT think because it’s an interest rate increase that the only way is up! It can be a GBP negative hike… stranger things have happened. I am not expecting this result but it has NOT been ruled out.\r\n\r\nI intend to be ready and loaded…\r\n\r\nWithout stating the bloody obvious the market loves the USD at the moment. Sentiment is most definitely skewed towards buying the USD. As mentioned in several places I believe this to be a short to medium term shift, probably until the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nAfter that I see USD weakness being driven through the markets through Presidential intervention via jaw-boning and interference.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10280\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-29102017-775x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"775\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies.\r\n\r\nThe CAD is on the back burner for now. I have three HEDGED trades to work through. I have just the one HEDGED TRADE with an “OUT” trade in play. I am to coin a phrase “HEDGING my approach to my HEDGES” if that makes sense.\r\n\r\nThe NZD I am waiting for a pullback to use that opportunity to read.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades. All three are HEDGED and one has an “OUT” trade attached.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: These trades will remain on the back burner this week unless there is an opportunity to try and steal 100 pips here or there to offset the HEDGED amounts. I do not see these HEDGES in the same light as the GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/AUD hedges. They were far more straightforward to exit without too much thought and strategy planning. These CAD HEDGES could be around for some time.\r\n\r\nI have no plans currently to place CAD related trades against other pairs. This may change soon, but for now nada!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/JPY short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD trades and a GBP/NZD and NZD/USD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board as soon as I see a meaningful pullback to provide beneficial pricing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u><u></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10271\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-29102017-889x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"889\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10270\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-29102017-1024x1018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1018\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI heard from two brokers.\r\n\r\nVolumes from major banks are lower and the recent period of lack of volatility in the market confirms this view.\r\n\r\nThere is absolutely nothing that the brokers can do in this regard. They are suffering through lower retail volumes because the numbers of retail traders have gradually decreased since the EUR/CHF peg removal.\r\n\r\nI am being reminded about the FXCM removal from the US market also being pivotal, as the mistrust of a high-profile broker was huge, never mind all the white label brokers!!\r\n\r\nThere are plenty of cowboys out there, of that there is no doubt.\r\n\r\nI am trading with 5 brokers, 7 separate accounts at the moment and all is well ... touch wood. My two MT4 brokers VANTAGE FX (Australia) and HANTEC MARKETS (UK) continue to provide me with excellent service. My other TRADE STATION brokers are just excellent to work with.\r\n\r\nIf you are looking to open a separate broker account for PREMIUM SERVICE trades in 2018, take a look at VANTAGE FX or HANTEC MARKETS, signing up through my website link gives you fee advantages with VANTAGE FX.\r\n\r\nGoing back…\r\n\r\nWhenever I hear about reduced volumes, I immediately think consolidation….\r\n\r\nLet’s see what happens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #153 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n29th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE DRAGHI THUNDERBOLT', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10289-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-01-18 13:59:37', '2018-01-18 18:59:37', '', 10289, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10289-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(10799, 1, '2018-01-18 13:59:59', '2018-01-18 18:59:59', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI began last week, carrying forward from the prior week some large negative cross rates losses. The charts prior to some poor US data were relatively constructive and I made the decision based upon my longer-term views to HEDGE four cross-rate trades. The decision to HEDGE was made primarily due to rising geopolitical tensions and headline news events that could just rip up in my face… NORTH KOREA, IRAN, CATALONIA and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nAt the beginning of the week, Monday and Tuesday, I was playing a waiting and watching game. Now HEDGED my losses were fixed and I set up what I call the “OUT” trade based on revised chart analysis. The market was slow and just trying to extract a few pips a day was difficult as we were range bound. I was\r\n\r\nTweeting and writing to my subscribers that for me at the current time it was all about patience. I had to let the markets consolidate.\r\n\r\nWednesday I was really pist off as I let a few pips drift by.\r\n\r\nThen overnight Wednesday/Thursday early morning it all kicked off. My PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were already positioned SHORT the NZD as this was one of my CORE POSITIONS for some time.\r\n\r\nThe coalition announcement was just what the doctor ordered. At one stage I had almost 30 LIVE trades to deal with and fresh trades triggered what felt like every two or three minutes as the Kiwi got crushed. At 2:30AM last Thursday I was up and at my screens. The following 4-5 hours reminded me why I enjoy trading so much. I took profits off the table, banked pips, moved stops to protect $$$, increased limits and removed some other trades that were just part of the forest stopping me from seeing the wood on the trees I wanted to follow. It was hectic, and, at times frantic whilst I gathered my thoughts and put my TRADING PLAN which was thought through from the night before into action.\r\n\r\nTwo of the HEDGES have been exited in profit by 132 additional pips. Of the remaining HEDGES, one is on the way to its exit and the other has yet to move considerably in my chosen “OUT” direction, but as my trading position is fixed; I can wait and focus elsewhere first.\r\n\r\nThe great news is that from my trading perspective the New Zealand government coalition is NZD negative and the trade has only just begun.\r\n\r\nSo, what I thought was going to be one of the most boring weeks of trading since I started was exciting and quite profitable.\r\n\r\nTo put the week in perspective. The prior week 160 net pips were added. Last week the PREMIUM SERVICE added an additional net pip total of +1,112 pips, making the total for 2017 +9,159 pips.\r\n\r\nOn June 25th, 2017, just after Breda and I had completed our trip to Australia and New Zealand, which followed our cross-country house move into Nova Scotia, the pip total stood at 2,113 pips.\r\n\r\nThe pip gathering since the start of July this year has been relentless, but at the same time there have been days of inactivity waiting for trades and being patient.\r\n\r\nI was going to place this next paragraph about trading with THE PREMIUM SERVICE at the end of the blog but it makes sense to include it here: -\r\n\r\nMy annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets have greater RISK attached my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.\r\n\r\nMy point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.\r\n\r\nSingle MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips\r\nAnticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)\r\n\r\nLess PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nAnnual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                                 = USD$9,000\r\n\r\nWorking on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n50% of my suggested trades\r\n50% of my entries on time\r\n50% of my exits on time\r\nYou could still generate a NET INCOME\r\nafter subscription                                            of USD$4,0000\r\n\r\nObviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.\r\n\r\nRISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong><u>: GOVERNMENT COALITION ANNOUNCEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n26 days following the New Zealand elections, Jacinda Ardern leader of the Labour Party became the country’s latest Prime Minister.\r\n\r\nThere was a split vote almost a month ago and the New Zealand First Party leader, Winston Peters in dramatic form announced that his populist party would throw its support in a coalition with Labour. Along with the “greens” the NZ First and Labour will be the coalition government.\r\n\r\nIt was pure theatre as, neither incumbent Prime Minister Bill English, nor Jacinda Adern knew which way Winston Peters was going move.\r\n\r\nThis result and the coalition is a total unknown and the markets would have preferred a Bill English National Party led coalition.\r\n\r\nThis move should NOT be underestimated, as it is mammoth. It was a decision for change involving Housing, Immigration, reducing NZ poverty and Foreign Investment in property. These are structural economic changes.\r\n\r\nOn the news, the NZD/USD was crushed lower by 160 pips, the EUR/NZD and GBP/USD moved up by over 400 pips each and the antipodean cross AUD/NZD moved up by over 270 pips.\r\n\r\nThese moves were stellar and over the coming sessions I see these moves consolidating. There should be plenty of pips available into the end of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPi, CARNEY, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; BREXIT.</u>\r\n\r\nIt was an action-packed week for sterling.\r\n\r\nThe week started well with CPI which was in line with expectations at 3% this is basically what is fueling the BOE accountants to raise rates as it is a full 1% above the BOE target.\r\n\r\nCarney presented in front of a House of Commons committee on inflation and was dovish but saying that interest rates would probably rise, but it would be more than likely reading between the “yada yada” a one and done scenario. He saw inflation stopping around 3% and cable sold off as a result. There was nothing new in what Carney said so the market reaction was as usual weird.\r\n\r\nAverage earnings came in a 2.2%. The difference between earnings and inflation at 0.8% is hardly the climate in which to raise rates in my opinion. Nevertheless, it looks a done deal with an 80% market expectation that UK interest rates will move higher in November.\r\n\r\nJust to spice things up Retail Sales were a miss. In fact, it was a bloody awful number -0.8% versus an expectation of -0.1%. Cable sold off and then in usual cable style during the day recovered most of its losses.\r\n\r\nIn the middle of all the economic data the BREXIT roadshow stumbled along. Theresa May and David Davis met with Michel Barnier and although a cover up the cracks press release from both parties said that it was a beneficial meeting, the two-year Article 50 transition period extension that Prime Minister May requested did not appear as a resolution from the meeting, so for now at least the March 2019 deadline remains, unreal as it is!\r\n\r\nSo, the $64,000 question is how do you trade cable?\r\n\r\nA few months ago, I think it was HSBC who had a call that matched my own thoughts which was, GBP/USD 1.2000 and EUR/GBP to parity. They have since changed their minds on this call on the basis that originally, they believed that the economy would drive cable and not the BOE. Of late, the BOE is the driver of cable.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am still not so sure that the 1.2000 and parity calls are still the correct ones.\r\n\r\nTo raise rates as I have repeatedly stated during so much uncertainty hanging over the UK never mind the 3% inflation rate is just crazy in my opinion. The fact that earnings are still lagging by 0.8% must weigh in somewhere one would think.\r\n\r\nIt is now widely reported that the BREXIT deal cannot be struck by March 2019 and a “NO DEAL” scenario is becoming more and more likely. I have said from the get go 2 years to exit was an unreal time-scale and I am now vindicated with my prediction and thought process from months ago.\r\n\r\nBack to FX…\r\n\r\nI still do NOT know what way to trade cable. The crosses are now mixed following the New Zealand news. GBP/NZD is pressing higher and the AUD/NZD is also pressing higher which, places pressure on the GBP/AUD to move lower.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/GBP is moving higher back towards 0.9000 once again, however, it appears that it is cool and trendy to short this pair. I do NOT agree with the sheep mentality here and think that this may be the pair to focus on rather than GBP/USD.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThursday last week was the deadline for Catalonia to declare independence. The Catalan president Carles Puidegemont said he wanted to talk dirty with Rahoy, but the Prime minister basically said bollocks and triggered the Spanish government’s Article 155, which takes power away from Catalonia.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nHere’s a taster for what’s ahead. The Catalan government allegedly instructed supporters of independence to go to SABADELL and LA CAIXA banks and take as much cash as they could out of the ATM machines. Trying to create a “RUN” on the banks as these two have announced moving their headquarters out of Catalonia because of the uncertainty.\r\n\r\nOn all the Catalonian shenanigans the EUR/USD fell a few pips and then regained almost all of them back again. This pair is Teflon coated.\r\n\r\nHow the hell do you trade this pair?\r\n\r\nThe ECB eagerly awaited press conference is due this coming Thursday maybe all will be revealed then from the words of wisdom from Mario Draghi. Although, as I wrote last week the ECB has given out detailed forward guidance already on their intentions, there are only a few blanks left to fill. Am I going crazy?\r\n\r\nThe threat of nuclear war from the little rocket man does bugger all to move markets, so the potential of the Spanish economy going down the tubes is like a pimple on the back of an elephant.\r\n\r\nThe Spanish / Catalonia crisis will rumble on for weeks….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> RETAIL SALES &amp; CPi.</u>\r\n\r\nShocking numbers. Retail Sales came through at -0.3%, the market was expecting 0.5%. CPi missed 0.2% monthly versus 0.3% and year to date 1.6% versus 1.7%.\r\n\r\nThis week on Wednesday, the BOC meets. I am still thinking that the BOC will raise before the year end but it looks very doubtful that a rate increase will be announced this week.\r\n\r\nExpect the word “TRANSITORY” to be used a few times!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\n\r\nGARY COHN\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\n\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\n\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP’S opinions in my opinion, are usually based on the “Last Man Standing” approach. The last person he speaks with is usually just wonderful, much better than the person a day earlier who was at that time the best one so far.\r\n\r\nThis has taken up a lot of TV time and newspaper column inches and social media chatter. I can speculate here until the cows come home and even with a deadline in place which is just around the corner, I could still be speculating as my wife and I sit down to our Christmas dinner.\r\n\r\nI take the view that the FED chairperson can influence the markets but he or she does rule over the institution single handedly. There are civil servant types in place to stop change. The FED chair only has limited scope in my opinion. The institution is very long standing and formats and structures are in place to stop people getting carried away with power going to their head.\r\n\r\nTRUMP’s interview will be along the lines of keep interest rates low and say that you want to make America great again and you have the job. That is how simplistic I think TRUMP believes the job to be…. frightening, very scary stuff.\r\n\r\nWe are being told that JEROME POWELL and JOHN TAYLOR are the two front-runners and that a decision will be announced within the next 10 days prior to TRUMP jetting with Melania to Asia on a goodwill visit to calm tensions in the area…yeah right tensions reduced my arse!\r\n\r\nWhat I can tell you in this blog is that the name of Janet Yellen’s replacement appears to have a greater impact on the USD (DXY) than the threat of a nuclear warhead from North Korea…. go figure that one out!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10237\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017-1024x713.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"713\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10238\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017-1024x839.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"839\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10250\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10251\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10249\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10252\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10253\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10254\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10255\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nOnly two pieces of upcoming economic data interests me this week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> BOC RATE STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE</u>.\r\n\r\nWednesday should be a very interesting day for the CAD currency.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC has been true to his word and maintained credibility with the markets by doing what he said he was going to do.\r\n\r\nI expected a lot of “Transitory” to be used during the Press Conference. I would be astonished if he raised rates at the moment, however, I would be looking very closely to hear his views on a possible hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nScotiaBank still believe that a hike is on the cards before the end of 2017. If their predictions are as good as the service in the local branches I would take this analysis with a pinch of salt!! Being fair, they are not too far away on their FX analysis, but there is always a first time to be well off!!\r\n\r\nI am currently SHORT the USD/CAD. Yes, I am that trader on the COT report!!\r\n\r\nI still expect Poloz to remain with hawkish undertones to his statement. He cannot, turn around after two rate increases and turn dovish. Mark Carney would without a second thought, but Poloz is cut with a different cloth.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB RATE DECISION &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nMario Draghi gets to have his day on announcing the ECB future monetary policy to take the markets through 2018 and beyond.\r\n\r\nWill Draghi and the ECB pull it off? The want to start back on the road to normalization very slowly without the markets pricing everything ion from day one and destroying the EURO.\r\n\r\nGiven his past failures of being able to deliver the content and have the market reaction that he wants has always been the challenge facing the ECB President.\r\n\r\nIn the past, he has not been helped by “bubble and squeak” aka Wolfgang Schauble (ex. German Fin Minister) and Jens Weidman (Head of the Bundesbank), they would continually contradict and dispute Draghi’s path forward with ECB policy. (it’s all part of the EUROPEAN <strong><u>UNION</u> </strong>approach to harmony). If they were not enough the Austrian Central Bank Governor, who, is on the ECB council, Ewald Nowotny, would also contradict and screw up the messages from Draghi!\r\n\r\nSo, to say Mario Draghi has an uphill task would be an understatement.\r\n\r\nHowever, all is NOT lost.\r\n\r\nDraghi has been cute this time around.\r\n\r\nAhead of this week’s press conference the ECB has been giving over the past two weeks what I am viewing as forward guidance.\r\n\r\nInterest rates will remain accommodative long after the ECB bond buying (asset purchase) program has ended. Low rates will be policy for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nThe Quantitative Easing (QE) program is being “Tapered”. Currently at €60 Billion is expected to reduce and the only answers that the market seeks confirmation on are to the following questions; new amount and for how long?\r\n\r\nThe problem that Draghi has is that beyond the top layer it goes much, much deeper.\r\n\r\n28 countries in the EU (presently), with 17 of these countries inside the EUROZONE single currency.\r\n\r\nYou simply cannot have a monetary policy for 17 countries operating centrally. There is no one size fits all.\r\n\r\nTo even get close, structural reforms are required country by country to be more aligned. This is NEVER going to happen. How in the name of sanity can you compare the economies of Germany with those of Malta, Greece or Slovenia? It is just NOT possible.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Therefore, aggressive policies will just NOT work. Maybe the ECB blueprint of accommodative policies to infinity is something that the markets will have to get their heads around.</li>\r\n 	<li>There is NO real inflation.</li>\r\n 	<li>Unemployment is high, especially youth unemployment in too many countries.</li>\r\n 	<li>Growth may be rising but it is patchy in some areas.</li>\r\n 	<li>So much of the positivity of late has been created with a fluctuating OIL price and this is making data better than it is.</li>\r\n 	<li>Negative rates may disappear. However, using the “old school” definition of interest rate normalization, I think is a dream for the ECB and there is no reason to increase interest rates unless there are signs of inflation, which there are NOT.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis Thursday, is a big moment for Draghi and the ECB, his words will be dissected, put back together again and then re-dissected. I was hoping that in conjunction with the FED it would be easier to see the path to trade the EUR/USD. I am not sure. My initial thoughts were to go long EUR/USD, then it changed to short EUR/USD given the ECB forward guidance and the support in the DXY to buy USD.\r\n\r\nI closed my EUR/USD last Friday for a tiny profit. I am playing a waiting game now until after the ECB. I am sticking to cross rate pairs in the interim.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would NOT be sitting in front of a bank of computer screens typing away…\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying the USD leads. This week however, we have two Central Banks reporting.\r\n\r\nThe BOC and ECB for differing reasons both have the markets attention. Both are involved in potentially big moves for the FX market.\r\n\r\nAdd to this the fact that the market is twitchy over the announcement of the new FED Chairperson and the overhang of geopolitical tensions in NORTH KOREA and IRAN. Plus, we also have BREXIT and CATALONIA to work with.\r\n\r\nTHE NZD is close to being toast. This is covered in much more detail later in this blog for my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nBasically, I would use cross rates until we see how the USD is going to react to the news when it finally comes through.\r\n\r\nIt is so tempting to trade EUR/USD and USD/JPY but in real terms the risks are too apparent at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY is no longer correlated to the Nikkei – huge RISK when it corrects or the Nikkei corrects either way it is impossible to gauge timelines and what happens first.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is very just range bound itself because the markets are indecisive. It is winding up for a big move and I do not think that this will happen until the ECB announcement later this week. Bear in mind, a threat of Nuclear War, senior citizens being manhandled out of polling booth, Catalan Independence and BREXIT failings, have all failed to move this pair.  The change in FED chairperson has had more of an effect but even looking deeper into this, it’s been reasonably muted when all said and done.\r\n\r\nI got suckered into EUR/USD trades last week, it took me a couple of days to exit with a small profit. I just DO NOT see the reason to go mad into anything USD related, maybe the NZD/USD exempted until the dust settles on several issues. There are plenty of other opportunities.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL:             +1,112 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +1,753 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +9,159 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week was my best trading week in 2017. Over a month’s pip gain objective was added inside of 48 hours.\r\n\r\nLast week: Net new pips added = 1,112 pips.\r\n\r\nMonth of October to date = 1,753 pips.\r\n\r\nYear To date pip total = 9,159 pips.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou make your own luck but I feel vindicated in my decision to remain CORE SHORT the NZD and to remain long AUD/NZD for the past two years or so. The AUD/NZD has been a very profitable pair for trading. Its moves are very easy to follow… most of the time!\r\n\r\nThe NZD move is not over (see below).\r\n\r\nWhat has pleased me the most, was to stick with the NZD crosses and take the losses a week last Friday. Whilst hedging has its risks, you can park the trade and wait if needs be. I have my PLAN for exiting and I work the plan moving forward. Having a PLAN when reading FX is essential. Without this you are running around like a headless chicken.\r\n\r\nI banked $$$ across JPY trades and other USD trades but as mentioned already in the blog, these for me at the current time have a RISK attached that can be avoided.\r\n\r\nMoving forward still has challenges attached. In my opinion it’s all about being cute with trade selection.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMoving forward the big question is what happens with the USD.\r\n\r\nDoes it move up with USD strength or does it resume its move lower after this small retrace higher? If I knew the answer to this life would be just a blast!\r\n\r\nLooking longer term. The NZD economy is in for a complete makeover given the Labour/NZ first alliance. I have often said that the NZD/USD was over-priced and fair value was more like 0.6500. I have also stated on numerous occasions that fair value based on NAB papers for the AUD/NZD is much closer to 1.2000.\r\n\r\nMy immediate focus is the NZD currency.\r\n\r\n<u>SCENARIO 1:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD moves higher with strength.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD hits c.1.1200\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD hits c.1.2000\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD moves back to c.0.7500\r\n\r\nThe NZD would get demolished to 0.6500 maybe even lower.\r\n\r\nThe NZD crosses would be on fire moving higher; AUD/NZD, EUR/USD and GBP/NZD\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>SCENARIO 2:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD moves lower with weakness. It continues the trend lower that it has been in since the TRUMP inauguration.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD hits c.1.2500\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD hits c.1.3600\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD moves up to c.0.8200\r\n\r\nThis is also great for the NZD crosses and the NZD/USD may only see a life of maybe 100 pips, if that.\r\n\r\nObviously, nothing moves in straight lines but its all good news as far as I can see, as long we have a directional trade. The SENTIMENT will rule the direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOn the sentiment chart below you will see that it’s almost a complete reversal in sentiment from last week but we are more aligned. USD strength is the key feature this week. Hold onto your hats though, TRUMP is bound to cause friction over the Janet Yellen replacement and God knows whatever he touches next. The sentiment chart could change very quickly.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10248\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-22102017-784x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"784\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies, although I have reduced my CAD exposure quite a bit with a BOC Rate announcement and Press Conference this week. I have NOT ruled out a HEDGE or two with the CAD as I am a believer in higher CAD interest rates.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait until after the BOC this Wednesday to decide what further actions are required. I may HEDGE or I may cut the trades and take a loss.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 1 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 1 x EUR/NZD long trade (HEDGED) plus a EUR/NZD “OUT” trade for the hedge.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 3 x AUD/NZD trades and GBP/NZD and NZD/JPY limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board early this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-TRADES-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10240\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-TRADES-22102017-954x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"954\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10239\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-22102017-1024x954.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"954\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #152 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n22nd October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WILL THE ECB PULL IT OFF?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10262-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-01-18 13:59:59', '2018-01-18 18:59:59', '', 10262, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10262-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(10800, 1045, '2018-01-18 14:25:11', '2018-01-18 19:25:11', '<section class=\"one-sixth first\">\n<h4>Total Trades Profit Summaries Archives:</h4>\n</section>\n<section class=\"five-sixths\">\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\n<h2>This Month</h2>\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n</div>\n<div class=\"one-half\">\n<h2>Year to date</h2>\n\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\n\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/PS-NET-PROFITS-2017-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10723\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/PS-NET-PROFITS-2017-COMPLETE-972x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\n</div>\n\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/PS-PROFITS-2016.png\"><img class=\"size-large wp-image-9216 aligncenter\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/PS-PROFITS-2016-946x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"946\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\n\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/PREM-SERVICE-COMPLETE-2015.png\"><img class=\"size-large wp-image-8804 aligncenter\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/PREM-SERVICE-COMPLETE-2015-1024x1011.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1011\" /></a>\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/PREM-PROFITS-2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9214\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/PREM-PROFITS-2014-1024x1022.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1022\" /></a>\n\n</section>\n', 'Total Trades Profit Summaries', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '5000-autosave-v1', '', '', '2018-01-18 14:25:11', '2018-01-18 19:25:11', '', 5000, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/5000-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(10804, 1045, '2018-01-18 14:31:29', '2018-01-18 19:31:29', '<h4>Monthly and Annual Consolidated Performance Analysis :</h4>\r\n<section>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Year</h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/DECEMBER-CONS.-2017.png\"><img class=\"size-large wp-image-10715 alignnone\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/DECEMBER-CONS.-2017-851x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"851\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/CONS-PERF-DEC2016-YTD.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-8815\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/CONS-PERF-DEC2016-YTD-852x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"852\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PS-RISK-REWARD-2015-COMP.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6991\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PS-RISK-REWARD-2015-COMP.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"420\" height=\"519\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-2015-COMP.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6990\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-2015-COMP.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RISK-REWARD-RATIONS-2014-YTD.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-8862\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RISK-REWARD-RATIONS-2014-YTD-811x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"811\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/PL-RATIOS-2014-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-8861\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/PL-RATIOS-2014-COMPLETE-726x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"726\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>', 'CONSOLIDATED PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '5002-autosave-v1', '', '', '2018-01-18 14:31:29', '2018-01-18 19:31:29', '', 5002, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/5002-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(10812, 1045, '2018-01-18 14:45:04', '2018-01-18 19:45:04', '<h4>PIP PERFORMANCE</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n\r\n<h2>2018 v 2017</h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2>2017 v 2016\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-10716\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/PIP-COMPARISON-2017-COMPLETE-1024x813.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\"  /></h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2>2016 v 2015\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-8816\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/PIP-COMPARISON-2016-COMPLETE-1024x615.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" /></h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2>2015 v 2014\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-6992\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PIP-COMP-2015-v-2014-COMP.png\" alt=\"PIP COMP 2015 v 2014 COMP\" width=\"1024\" /></h2>\r\n\r\n</section>', 'PIP PERFORMANCE YEAR by YEAR COMPARISONS', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '6869-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-01-18 14:45:04', '2018-01-18 19:45:04', '', 6869, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6869-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(10814, 1, '2018-01-19 13:02:55', '2018-01-19 18:02:55', '', 'DXY W INDEX 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'dxy-w-index-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:44:56', '2018-01-20 11:44:56', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/DXY-W-INDEX-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10815, 1, '2018-01-19 13:03:01', '2018-01-19 18:03:01', '', 'USDJPY W 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdjpy-w-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:47:31', '2018-01-20 11:47:31', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-W-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10816, 1, '2018-01-19 13:03:05', '2018-01-19 18:03:05', '', 'ECON DATA 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'econ-data-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:46:21', '2018-01-20 11:46:21', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10817, 1, '2018-01-19 13:03:14', '2018-01-19 18:03:14', '', 'POS SUMMARY 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'pos-summary-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:45:45', '2018-01-20 11:45:45', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS-SUMMARY-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10818, 1, '2018-01-19 13:03:20', '2018-01-19 18:03:20', '', 'LIMIT ORDERS 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'limit-orders-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:55:11', '2018-01-20 11:55:11', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIMIT-ORDERS-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10819, 1, '2018-01-19 13:03:23', '2018-01-19 18:03:23', '', 'LIVE TRADES 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'live-trades-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:55:02', '2018-01-20 11:55:02', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10821, 1, '2018-01-19 13:03:33', '2018-01-19 18:03:33', '', 'FLASH 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'flash-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 07:39:10', '2018-01-20 12:39:10', '', 2711, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FLASH-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10822, 1, '2018-01-19 13:03:40', '2018-01-19 18:03:40', '', 'RADAR 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'radar-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 07:39:50', '2018-01-20 12:39:50', '', 2524, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/RADAR-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10823, 1, '2018-01-19 13:03:45', '2018-01-19 18:03:45', '', 'MOM 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'mom-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 07:40:31', '2018-01-20 12:40:31', '', 10540, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MOM-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10824, 1, '2018-01-19 13:03:50', '2018-01-19 18:03:50', '', 'FUN 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'fun-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 07:41:15', '2018-01-20 12:41:15', '', 3106, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FUN-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10825, 1, '2018-01-19 13:03:55', '2018-01-19 18:03:55', '', 'POS1 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'pos1-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 07:41:52', '2018-01-20 12:41:52', '', 6965, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS1-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10826, 1, '2018-01-19 13:04:00', '2018-01-19 18:04:00', '', 'POS2 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'pos2-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 07:42:00', '2018-01-20 12:42:00', '', 6965, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS2-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10827, 1, '2018-01-19 17:24:05', '2018-01-19 22:24:05', '', 'MKT SENTIMENT 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'mkt-sentiment-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:48:14', '2018-01-20 11:48:14', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MKT-SENTIMENT-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10828, 1, '2018-01-19 17:24:09', '2018-01-19 22:24:09', '', 'TCHART 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'tchart-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 07:57:50', '2018-01-20 12:57:50', '', 10852, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10829, 1, '2018-01-19 17:29:55', '2018-01-19 22:29:55', '', 'AUDUSD D 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'audusd-d-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:49:35', '2018-01-20 11:49:35', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUDUSD-D-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10830, 1, '2018-01-19 17:29:58', '2018-01-19 22:29:58', '', 'EURUSD D 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'eurusd-d-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:48:46', '2018-01-20 11:48:46', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10831, 1, '2018-01-19 17:30:00', '2018-01-19 22:30:00', '', 'GBPUSD D 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'gbpusd-d-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:49:15', '2018-01-20 11:49:15', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10832, 1, '2018-01-19 17:30:03', '2018-01-19 22:30:03', '', 'NZDUSD D 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nzdusd-d-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:49:54', '2018-01-20 11:49:54', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10833, 1, '2018-01-19 17:30:06', '2018-01-19 22:30:06', '', 'USDCAD D 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdcad-d-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:50:13', '2018-01-20 11:50:13', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10834, 1, '2018-01-19 17:30:09', '2018-01-19 22:30:09', '', 'USDCHF D 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdchf-d-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:50:33', '2018-01-20 11:50:33', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10835, 1, '2018-01-19 17:30:12', '2018-01-19 22:30:12', '', 'USDJPY D 20012018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdjpy-d-20012018', '', '', '2018-01-20 06:51:02', '2018-01-20 11:51:02', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-20012018.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(10837, 1, '2018-01-20 07:24:50', '2018-01-20 12:24:50', '<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE OPENING SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhat a week that was.\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God, trading this week for me was hard with my trading style. There was movement, mostly one way, call it reactionary, impulsive or fear of missing out trading (FOMO), call it whatever you want it was nonstop selling of the USD. I cannot recall too many times over the past 10 years that I have seen so much nonstop one-way traffic. I spent a great deal of the time sidelined watching what went on, there were no, what I call usual market pullbacks to meet my TRADE PLAN guidelines to enter.\r\n\r\nChart indicators meant little, similar could be said of many Fibonacci levels. During last week, we had several market squeezes, a Dovish hike with a Hawkish outcome and more “chop action” than a family butcher would get through in a month; we as FX traders had it all in just 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe week was light on economic data to consider. From my perspective all the market moving economic data events were last Wednesday, the BOC interest rate decision and Press Conference, AUD employment data and Chinese GDP. The rest of the week we were at the mercy of equities.\r\n\r\nThe swings in US equities, especially the Dow Jones index, which had around a 1,000 point move up and down in 48 hours were nothing more than just extreme, it was basically just mental price activity.\r\n\r\nCable squeezed like feck, it has 1.4000 in mind. The markets are gunning to take stops above this figure but on Friday last week following poor Retail Sales figures the pair fell back from achieving 1.3945.\r\n\r\nAlso, the JPY had its moments. I had several JPY trades which in a flash turned from strength to weakness as the USD/JPY squeezed higher above 111.00.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD leapt up as well, it obviously wants to take stops above 1.2300. Despite severe jawboning from the ECB and other EU figures, the single currencies move higher was relentless during the week.\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies AUD and NZD slowly kept grinding higher with small pullbacks then off again taking new highs as they moved.\r\n\r\nIn a normal market, one would expect some sort of price test to verify the break out or break down levels. I placed three what I called “no brainer” limit orders to do just that. They all triggered and then swiftly reversed stopping me out of all three trades. Bugger that for a game of soldiers as one might say!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI had placed a huge amount of faith in the BOC news. It was a dovish hike but a sort of hawkish “at times” press conference all the USD/CAD gains, were given back and then a huge spike to end the day. We ended the day with a very long wicked “Doji” candle the highs at 1.2540 and lows at 1.2350. The price movements during the day were just mad. The CAD lived up to it’s nickname “Loonie”\r\n\r\nIf all this was not enough…\r\n\r\nEnter the old groper “LITTLE HANDS” talking his usual bollocks over NAFTA, escalating the chatter with China and in so doing pushing a potential trade war closer and then the escalating chatter surrounding yet another US government shutdown. This just fueled the already crazy price action and volatility.\r\n\r\nI just cannot wait to see “LITTLE HANDS” in Davos this week. He will no doubt overshadow the whole proceedings and bring increased security issues along with him. Never mind the headlines that will emanate from his reasons to visit.\r\n\r\nBasically, to sum up last week, there was little point measuring moves, most of the time trading was tantamount to gambling. I am sure many traders will disagree with that statement but how anyone could plot a trade under those circumstances was using luck more than skill. Only the true 1 and 5-minute scalper traders with all that experience and nerve could have survived, it was at times a bloodbath. Even my “Pressure charts” which are great on directional behavior were all over the place on low minute charts. I was sidelined.\r\n\r\nLast week and looking forward the USD was on the “Highway to Hell”. From time-to-time but for really short periods it demonstrated some signs of a recovery, but these were very short lived. Basically, sellers of the USD were lining up as soon as spikes were seen. Selling the “RIPS” was the order of the week. Even last Friday as the latest D.C. shutdown approached the USD strengthened a little but my overall thought process remains; it’s going down.\r\n\r\nNow look, I do expect a pullback, as I have said in many of my blogs. Remember, the FX market likes to check / validate prices. However, I am viewing these validation levels as opportunities, but they are all so far away from current pricing at the moment, it will take some patience to sit out the wait.\r\n\r\nWill the pullback happen this week?\r\n\r\nOne would like to think so, however, but to be honest with “LITTLE HANDS” let loose in Davos anything could happen.\r\n\r\nBeing patient is a trading skill. It’s sounds absolutely crazy and bizarre to say that staying sidelined is a trading skill, but it is. Knowing when to RISK your capital is precious.\r\n\r\nThe DXY chart below shows the declining USD from TRUMP’S inauguration day last January 2017 until now.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/DXY-W-INDEX-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10814\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/DXY-W-INDEX-20012018-1024x586.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"586\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTo be frank, I just cannot for the life of me understand at this point in time, why anyone would want to hold the USD. It really is one-way traffic. I never thought that I would ever write something like that for a currency where the Central bank is taking the lead to normalization. My brain is telling me USD strength. Central Bank divergence rules. Other Central banks are shifting policy, but the FED is well down the road of normalization, nearly all of the other G10 countries are talking about it and getting the markets ready but have done nada so far. It’s all quite bizarre.\r\n\r\nConnect to iTunes and play AC/DC “Highway to Hell” and look at the above DXY chart one more time!\r\n\r\nTo complete this section, this week…\r\n\r\nEnding soon…\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just starting, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” which is available until January 31st, 2018.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one years complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING LAST WEEK:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</span>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS-SUMMARY-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10817\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS-SUMMARY-20012018-1024x878.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"878\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THIS WEEK’S OVERVIEW and OPPORTUNITIES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>\r\n3:1. THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10816\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-20012018-1024x821.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:2. FX NEWS ITEM – “PICK OF THE WEEK”:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime piece of data on the agenda this week that has caught my eye, from a MUST TRADE perspective:\r\n\r\n<u>EUR: ECB RATE DECISION and PRESS CONFERENCE:</u>\r\n\r\nGod love Mario Draghi.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I can see that he has basically won, with one or two minor exceptions his long hard fight to get fellow governing council members of the ECB to tow the line and unite on the ECB policy decisions. Over the past few years council members, in particular, Jens Wiedmann (President of Deutsche Bank), Ewald Nowotny (President of the National Bank of Austria) and Wolfgang Schauble (Ex. Governing Council Member, ex. German Finance Minister and now President of the Bundestag), would say and do whatever they thought undermining Draghi and the alleged combined efforts of the ECB for the EUROZONE greater good.\r\n\r\nDraghi attempted several ways to bring these people in line. Some outspoken speeches, such as “Whatever it takes….”. Eventually the lines were drawn and most of the time they are adhered to.\r\n\r\nThis past week or so rhetoric from all over the EU and ECB has been united in trying to keep a lid on EUR strength. Late last year much time was spent by the ECB talking down tapering and interest rate normalization. This worked but recently more to do with USD weakness the single currency has strengthened across the board.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is fast approaching 1.2300 and the ECB are pissing conkers over this. They do NOT want an exchange rate at this level. They have been jawboning, but to little effect as the USD selling has been vicious. Therefore, this week’s press conference will be fascinating to follow.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:3. MY THOUGHTS ON TRADING THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you did not know I am more of a Fundamental trader.\r\n\r\nTiming is everything and the following may start to bear fruit this week, it may take a week or two.\r\n\r\nLast week I talked about JPY strength. I am not going to go into great trade set up by set up ideas in this area of the blog, that is reserved for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, however, let me elaborate a little more based on the recent price action with what could happen in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWe have extremes, I have been using the word stretched a lot of late. Let me throw out a few observations:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Equities are squeezing higher</li>\r\n 	<li>U.S. Treasury Yields are also moving higher</li>\r\n 	<li>U.S. 10-year Bonds are dumping</li>\r\n 	<li>Oil has been on a tear higher</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (DXY) has dumped.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nShould the extreme moves stop, and reverse will the USD benefit?\r\n\r\nU.S. Yields are going up but the relationship with the USD/JPY is broken. This pair is not rising.\r\n\r\nEquities are at all-time highs. The USD/JPY is not following. The correlation is not there.\r\n\r\nLook at the USD/JPY chart below. As mentioned recently there is a big move brewing and as I have said with the BOJ looking to move on its long term monetary policy of accommodation to maybe being a little more leaning towards normalization the path lower would be my thoughts on the matter.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY is in a triangle pattern. Long term, but in the apex. 110.00 as you can imagine is huge trend line support and the implications of a move lower beyond that level would be huge.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-W-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10815\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-W-20012018-1024x591.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"591\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI see, as I have stated before the JPY as the bonus trade in 2018. This is as a direct result of the BOJ changing policy.\r\n\r\nObviously, with a BOJ move this affects not just USD/JPY but it also implications for most if not all of the JPY crosses.\r\n\r\nI would also look at the NZD. New Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern has announced that she is pregnant and will be taking maternity leave. The role of PM in New Zealand would therefore pass to Winston Peters. By all accounts populist and an unknown quantity. This should place the NZD negative moving forward.\r\n\r\nWe have seen so many stretched moves over the past 10 days, I am ready and waiting for the pullbacks to re-enter in the direction of the Weekly and Monthly trends. I expect lots of bull and bear flag patterns on the 240M, 480M, 720M and daily charts coming through.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the closing candles will be heavily scrutinized by the banks and large institutions this week as they set up their books for the week ahead.\r\n\r\nThere’s more…\r\n\r\nNAFTA talks start up again in my old home town of Montreal. It will according to twitter (so it must be 100% accurate!) be a 9-day affair. Most of the clever people feel that if “LITTLE HANDS” rips up the agreement, whilst we have a six-month hiatus period, the currency that will suffer the most would be the MXN. Let’s see about that one!\r\n\r\nEven more…\r\n\r\nCross rates of late are broadly speaking wound up very tight. There is an explosive move on the cards, be very, very careful. Make sure that your position sizes vis-à-vis cross rates are about 25% of your usual trading size or less!\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nTherefore, here’s a tip. If you are trading, trade only the following times when liquidity will be at its highest: 8.00AM EST to NOON EST. This may not always be possible, but it is without doubt the best time to trade.\r\n\r\nIn addition, be extremely careful with cross rates as they will be the first to suffer from the lower liquidity periods in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:3. USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with MY BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10828\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-20012018-1024x874.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"874\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>3:4. USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLooks bullish to me with a nice bull flag pattern developing.\r\n\r\nThe issue I have is that I would prefer a re-test of the breakout price of 1.2092. I would like to see a break lower to that level or at least 1.2165 to validate the move higher.\r\n\r\nI am firmly in the camp of this pair moving higher through 2018 and I have my H1 target of 1.2668 in my mind and on my trading charts. That level BTW would be a great shorting level. It is the 61.8% retracement level of the 2014 high to the 2017 low.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nPoor Retail Sales data last Friday in my opinion scuppered any test of 1.4000. It is a huge psychological number that will be taken out and then what’s next, that is the question.\r\n\r\nI like the idea of a nice pullback to 1.3612. Dream on, if that were to happen a choir of heavenly angels would be singing in close harmony over my desk! 1.3650 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would be good enough.\r\n\r\nI have a feeling the 38% Fibonacci level may be “all we get” at 1.3760 and even that may be very difficult.\r\n\r\nIt is nevertheless a “BUY THE DIP” pair to take back to 1.4000 in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\nWe are in an upward sloping channel pattern. A few weeks ago, I was certain that this pair was going to break higher and test the 0.8120 level. Recent price action, when the AUD has basically crawled higher, retraced, albeit shallow, then spiked up again makes me wonder just a bit will it hit the lofty heights around 0,.8120.\r\n\r\nWhy?\r\n\r\nLong wicks show no price confirmations and a basic lack of follow through. Therefore, I question the conviction of the move. There have been some long green candles as well, so I am somewhat caught between a rock and a hard place vis-à-vis this pair.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUDUSD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUDUSD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nLast week I had this drawn more like an ascending wedge, having re-visited my charts, I see it similar to the AUD/USD in the sense that it is an upward sloping channel.\r\n\r\nThe overhead is playing its part however with this pair and with the political concerns in New Zealand about to become reality, the upward move could very soon be over. Pleases me no end. I am in a CORE SHORT position with this currency.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nWe have a BEAR FLAG pattern on the daily chart below. Ideally a move to just below 1.2600 to short would be just brilliant.\r\n\r\nWith NAFTA talks looming one cannot guarantee anything with this pair as it certainly lives up to its nickname of the “Loonie” if recent price action is anything to go by.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nLast week, I mentioned this pair dropping to 0.9450. It could still happen and more if the ECB projects the EUR/USD higher this week during the ECB Monetary Policy statement and the following Press Conference.\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the chart it spiked below trend line support on Friday last week and quickly gathered itself. This is NOT over.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI need to get myself focused on this currency this coming week. It is in my action plan to do so.\r\n\r\nI am now looking at a HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern playing out a measured move to 107.40. We have had an almost perfect test of the neckline break.\r\n\r\nBelow 110.00 is an important level to cut through in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u><u></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nA bit better this week, but OMG it is tough out there. I am not a scalper 5 minute to 15 minutes trader. Having had a quick session with my peer group, I noticed there were a lot of expletives in the conversation. Basically, most were caught off guard and seasoned traders were dipping in and out quickly, again NOT my style. Everyone is waiting on the pullback to re-enter with the trend.\r\n\r\nI was not really too engaged with the market from a LIVE trade perspective last week, so it is hard to review from that viewpoint.\r\n\r\nI closed a few trades here and there to limit RISK but for most of the time I was just following charts looking for entries that never materialized as pullbacks were so shallow they did not represent an entry for me using my TRADE PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\nI finally have some green balances in my broker accounts. If everything pans out the way I think it will this week, it could be a bit more exciting than last week on the basis that I may feel a bit more involved with the moves. Like a lot of you, I was in front of screens for hours last week just observing. This type of activity does sort out the traders from the gamblers though and as I have said on so many occasions patience is a virtue that <u>ALL</u> FX traders require in abundance.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am clear on what I want from trading this quarter. If it all pans out “Happy Days”.\r\n\r\nI have a lot of chart work ahead of me over the next few days. I have provisional set ups ready in the following: -\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, NOK/JPY, SEK/JPY, CAD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, USD/CAD, USD/MXN and USD/CHF.\r\n\r\nMost of the above are limit orders via POSITION TRADES. I have drop down limit orders for both RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades based on shorter time frames also on my desk. It’s quite a neat pile of papers. It will just take around 3-4 hours to verify charts, exits and entries, load into my brokers, tweet, email and finally get into the excel system.\r\n\r\nI hope to start sending these out Monday and Tuesday.\r\n\r\nI have already mentioned in the blog in an earlier segment that I am looking to the JPY and NZD this coming week.\r\n\r\nThe inter-market relationships are not correlating and that is a concern for me fundamentally. I am NOT comfortable with RISK when this occurs.\r\n\r\nI believe that RISK OFF that we have not really experienced for several years will be upon us very soon. I am not sure what the catalyst will be to trigger this event, Equities, “LITTLE HANDS”, The FED, The ECB, The BOJ, China, US Treasuries, BREXIT, Germany or “LITTLE ROCKET MAN”.\r\n\r\nThe JPY will be the currency to track this year and as I said last week its rise up the charts is a bonus. The great news is the USD/JPY is liquid.\r\n\r\nUSD weakness is in my opinion going to be a theme in 2018 and this should please “LITTLE HANDS” no end.\r\n\r\nI am therefore looking long EUR/USD and GBP/USD but short with RISK OFF AUD/USD and NZD/USD.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MKT-SENTIMENT-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10827\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MKT-SENTIMENT-20012018-787x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"787\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS and LONGER-TERM TRADE SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. MY TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Prepare and post out as many of my longer-term POSITION TRADE limit orders in the early stages of the week, markets permitting.</li>\r\n 	<li>Add EUR long into my TRADE PLAN strategy following the ECB this Thursday.</li>\r\n 	<li>Continue to coordinate my strategy into my TRADE PLAN vis-à-vis the JPY. This is now very much a tradeable currency in 2018. For me it is similar to Lazarus coming back from the dead.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4:3.2. LONG TERM CORE TRADES SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-CORE-POS-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10859\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-CORE-POS-20012018-1024x951.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"951\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10819\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-20012018-1024x1015.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1015\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIMIT-ORDERS-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10818\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIMIT-ORDERS-20012018-1024x960.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"960\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNothing to add here. They were all very quiet last week, with me anyhow.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FINAL SHOTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5:1. WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5:2. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #162 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 20th January 2018\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE USD IS ON \"THE HIGHWAY TO HELL\"', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usd-highway-hell', '', '', '2018-01-23 11:31:39', '2018-01-23 16:31:39', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10837', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
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(10839, 1, '2018-01-20 07:04:09', '2018-01-20 12:04:09', '<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE OPENING SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhat a week that was.\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God, trading this week for me was hard with my trading style. There was movement, mostly one way, call it reactionary, impulsive or fear of missing out trading (FOMO), call it whatever you want it was nonstop selling of the USD. I cannot recall too many times over the past 10 years that I have seen so much nonstop one-way traffic. I spent a great deal of the time sidelined watching what went on, there were no, what I call usual market pullbacks to meet my TRADE PLAN guidelines to enter.\r\n\r\nChart indicators meant little, similar could be said of many Fibonacci levels. During last week, we had several market squeezes, a Dovish hike with a Hawkish outcome and more “chop action” than a family butcher would get through in a month; we as FX traders had it all in just 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe week was light on economic data to consider. From my perspective all the market moving economic data events were last Wednesday, the BOC interest rate decision and Press Conference, AUD employment data and Chinese GDP. The rest of the week we were at the mercy of equities.\r\n\r\nThe swings in US equities, especially the Dow Jones index, which had around a 1,000 point move up and down in 48 hours were nothing more than just extreme, it was basically just mental price activity.\r\n\r\nCable squeezed like feck, it has 1.4000 in mind. The markets are gunning to take stops above this figure but on Friday last week following poor Retail Sales figures the pair fell back from achieving 1.3945.\r\n\r\nAlso, the JPY had its moments. I had several JPY trades which in a flash turned from strength to weakness as the USD/JPY squeezed higher above 111.00.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD leapt up as well, it obviously wants to take stops above 1.2300. Despite severe jawboning from the ECB and other EU figures, the single currencies move higher was relentless during the week.\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies AUD and NZD slowly kept grinding higher with small pullbacks then off again taking new highs as they moved.\r\n\r\nIn a normal market, one would expect some sort of price test to verify the break out or break down levels. I placed three what I called “no brainer” limit orders to do just that. They all triggered and then swiftly reversed stopping me out of all three trades. Bugger that for a game of soldiers as one might say!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI had placed a huge amount of faith in the BOC news. It was a dovish hike but a sort of hawkish “at times” press conference all the USD/CAD gains, were given back and then a huge spike to end the day. We ended the day with a very long wicked “Doji” candle the highs at 1.2540 and lows at 1.2350. The price movements during the day were just mad. The CAD lived up to it’s nickname “Loonie”\r\n\r\nIf all this was not enough…\r\n\r\nEnter the old groper “LITTLE HANDS” talking his usual bollocks over NAFTA, escalating the chatter with China and in so doing pushing a potential trade war closer and then the escalating chatter surrounding yet another US government shutdown. This just fueled the already crazy price action and volatility.\r\n\r\nI just cannot wait to see “LITTLE HANDS” in Davos this week. He will no doubt overshadow the whole proceedings and bring increased security issues along with him. Never mind the headlines that will emanate from his reasons to visit.\r\n\r\nBasically, to sum up last week, there was little point measuring moves, most of the time trading was tantamount to gambling. I am sure many traders will disagree with that statement but how anyone could plot a trade under those circumstances was using luck more than skill. Only the true 1 and 5-minute scalper traders with all that experience and nerve could have survived, it was at times a bloodbath. Even my “Pressure charts” which are great on directional behavior were all over the place on low minute charts. I was sidelined.\r\n\r\nLast week and looking forward the USD was on the “Highway to Hell”. From time-to-time but for really short periods it demonstrated some signs of a recovery, but these were very short lived. Basically, sellers of the USD were lining up as soon as spikes were seen. Selling the “RIPS” was the order of the week. Even last Friday as the latest D.C. shutdown approached the USD strengthened a little but my overall thought process remains; it’s going down.\r\n\r\nNow look, I do expect a pullback, as I have said in many of my blogs. Remember, the FX market likes to check / validate prices. However, I am viewing these validation levels as opportunities, but they are all so far away from current pricing at the moment, it will take some patience to sit out the wait.\r\n\r\nWill the pullback happen this week?\r\n\r\nOne would like to think so, however, but to be honest with “LITTLE HANDS” let loose in Davos anything could happen.\r\n\r\nBeing patient is a trading skill. It’s sounds absolutely crazy and bizarre to say that staying sidelined is a trading skill, but it is. Knowing when to RISK your capital is precious.\r\n\r\nThe DXY chart below shows the declining USD from TRUMP’S inauguration day last January 2017 until now.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/DXY-W-INDEX-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10814\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/DXY-W-INDEX-20012018-1024x586.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"586\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTo be frank, I just cannot for the life of me understand at this point in time, why anyone would want to hold the USD. It really is one-way traffic. I never thought that I would ever write something like that for a currency where the Central bank is taking the lead to normalization. My brain is telling me USD strength. Central Bank divergence rules. Other Central banks are shifting policy, but the FED is well down the road of normalization, nearly all of the other G10 countries are talking about it and getting the markets ready but have done nada so far. It’s all quite bizarre.\r\n\r\nConnect to iTunes and play AC/DC “Highway to Hell” and look at the above DXY chart one more time!\r\n\r\nTo complete this section, this week…\r\n\r\nEnding soon…\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just starting, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” which is available until January 31st, 2018.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one years complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING LAST WEEK:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</span>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS-SUMMARY-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10817\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS-SUMMARY-20012018-1024x878.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"878\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THIS WEEK’S OVERVIEW and OPPORTUNITIES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>\r\n3:1. THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10816\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-20012018-1024x821.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:2. FX NEWS ITEM – “PICK OF THE WEEK”:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime piece of data on the agenda this week that has caught my eye, from a MUST TRADE perspective:\r\n\r\n<u>EUR: ECB RATE DECISION and PRESS CONFERENCE:</u>\r\n\r\nGod love Mario Draghi.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I can see that he has basically won, with one or two minor exceptions his long hard fight to get fellow governing council members of the ECB to tow the line and unite on the ECB policy decisions. Over the past few years council members, in particular, Jens Wiedmann (President of Deutsche Bank), Ewald Nowotny (President of the National Bank of Austria) and Wolfgang Schauble (Ex. Governing Council Member, ex. German Finance Minister and now President of the Bundestag), would say and do whatever they thought undermining Draghi and the alleged combined efforts of the ECB for the EUROZONE greater good.\r\n\r\nDraghi attempted several ways to bring these people in line. Some outspoken speeches, such as “Whatever it takes….”. Eventually the lines were drawn and most of the time they are adhered to.\r\n\r\nThis past week or so rhetoric from all over the EU and ECB has been united in trying to keep a lid on EUR strength. Late last year much time was spent by the ECB talking down tapering and interest rate normalization. This worked but recently more to do with USD weakness the single currency has strengthened across the board.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is fast approaching 1.2300 and the ECB are pissing conkers over this. They do NOT want an exchange rate at this level. They have been jawboning, but to little effect as the USD selling has been vicious. Therefore, this week’s press conference will be fascinating to follow.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:3. MY THOUGHTS ON TRADING THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you did not know I am more of a Fundamental trader.\r\n\r\nTiming is everything and the following may start to bear fruit this week, it may take a week or two.\r\n\r\nLast week I talked about JPY strength. I am not going to go into great trade set up by set up ideas in this area of the blog, that is reserved for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, however, let me elaborate a little more based on the recent price action with what could happen in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWe have extremes, I have been using the word stretched a lot of late. Let me throw out a few observations:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Equities are squeezing higher</li>\r\n 	<li>U.S. Treasury Yields are also moving higher</li>\r\n 	<li>U.S. 10-year Bonds are dumping</li>\r\n 	<li>Oil has been on a tear higher</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (DXY) has dumped.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nShould the extreme moves stop, and reverse will the USD benefit?\r\n\r\nU.S. Yields are going up but the relationship with the USD/JPY is broken. This pair is not rising.\r\n\r\nEquities are at all-time highs. The USD/JPY is not following. The correlation is not there.\r\n\r\nLook at the USD/JPY chart below. As mentioned recently there is a big move brewing and as I have said with the BOJ looking to move on its long term monetary policy of accommodation to maybe being a little more leaning towards normalization the path lower would be my thoughts on the matter.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY is in a triangle pattern. Long term, but in the apex. 110.00 as you can imagine is huge trend line support and the implications of a move lower beyond that level would be huge.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-W-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10815\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-W-20012018-1024x591.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"591\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI see, as I have stated before the JPY as the bonus trade in 2018. This is as a direct result of the BOJ changing policy.\r\n\r\nObviously, with a BOJ move this affects not just USD/JPY but it also implications for most if not all of the JPY crosses.\r\n\r\nI would also look at the NZD. New Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern has announced that she is pregnant and will be taking maternity leave. The role of PM in New Zealand would therefore pass to Winston Peters. By all accounts populist and an unknown quantity. This should place the NZD negative moving forward.\r\n\r\nWe have seen so many stretched moves over the past 10 days, I am ready and waiting for the pullbacks to re-enter in the direction of the Weekly and Monthly trends. I expect lots of bull and bear flag patterns on the 240M, 480M, 720M and daily charts coming through.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the closing candles will be heavily scrutinized by the banks and large institutions this week as they set up their books for the week ahead.\r\n\r\nThere’s more…\r\n\r\nNAFTA talks start up again in my old home town of Montreal. It will according to twitter (so it must be 100% accurate!) be a 9-day affair. Most of the clever people feel that if “LITTLE HANDS” rips up the agreement, whilst we have a six-month hiatus period, the currency that will suffer the most would be the MXN. Let’s see about that one!\r\n\r\nEven more…\r\n\r\nCross rates of late are broadly speaking wound up very tight. There is an explosive move on the cards, be very, very careful. Make sure that your position sizes vis-à-vis cross rates are about 25% of your usual trading size or less!\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nTherefore, here’s a tip. If you are trading, trade only the following times when liquidity will be at its highest: 8.00AM EST to NOON EST. This may not always be possible, but it is without doubt the best time to trade.\r\n\r\nIn addition, be extremely careful with cross rates as they will be the first to suffer from the lower liquidity periods in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:3. USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with MY BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MKT-SENTIMENT-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10827\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MKT-SENTIMENT-20012018-787x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"787\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:4. USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nLooks bullish to me with a nice bull flag pattern developing.\r\n\r\nThe issue I have is that I would prefer a re-test of the breakout price of 1.2092. I would like to see a break lower to that level or at least 1.2165 to validate the move higher.\r\n\r\nI am firmly in the camp of this pair moving higher through 2018 and I have my H1 target of 1.2668 in my mind and on my trading charts. That level BTW would be a great shorting level. It is the 61.8% retracement level of the 2014 high to the 2017 low.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nPoor Retail Sales data last Friday in my opinion scuppered any test of 1.4000. It is a huge psychological number that will be taken out and then what’s next, that is the question.\r\n\r\nI like the idea of a nice pullback to 1.3612. Dream on, if that were to happen a choir of heavenly angels would be singing in close harmony over my desk! 1.3650 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would be good enough.\r\n\r\nI have a feeling the 38% Fibonacci level may be “all we get” at 1.3760 and even that may be very difficult.\r\n\r\nIt is nevertheless a “BUY THE DIP” pair to take back to 1.4000 in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\nWe are in an upward sloping channel pattern. A few weeks ago, I was certain that this pair was going to break higher and test the 0.8120 level. Recent price action, when the AUD has basically crawled higher, retraced, albeit shallow, then spiked up again makes me wonder just a bit will it hit the lofty heights around 0,.8120.\r\n\r\nWhy?\r\n\r\nLong wicks show no price confirmations and a basic lack of follow through. Therefore, I question the conviction of the move. There have been some long green candles as well, so I am somewhat caught between a rock and a hard place vis-à-vis this pair.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUDUSD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUDUSD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nLast week I had this drawn more like an ascending wedge, having re-visited my charts, I see it similar to the AUD/USD in the sense that it is an upward sloping channel.\r\n\r\nThe overhead is playing its part however with this pair and with the political concerns in New Zealand about to become reality, the upward move could very soon be over. Pleases me no end. I am in a CORE SHORT position with this currency.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nWe have a BEAR FLAG pattern on the daily chart below. Ideally a move to just below 1.2600 to short would be just brilliant.\r\n\r\nWith NAFTA talks looming one cannot guarantee anything with this pair as it certainly lives up to its nickname of the “Loonie” if recent price action is anything to go by.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nLast week, I mentioned this pair dropping to 0.9450. It could still happen and more if the ECB projects the EUR/USD higher this week during the ECB Monetary Policy statement and the following Press Conference.\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the chart it spiked below trend line support on Friday last week and quickly gathered itself. This is NOT over.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI need to get myself focused on this currency this coming week. It is in my action plan to do so.\r\n\r\nI am now looking at a HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern playing out a measured move to 107.40. We have had an almost perfect test of the neckline break.\r\n\r\nBelow 110.00 is an important level to cut through in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u><u>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nA bit better this week, but OMG it is tough out there. I am not a scalper 5 minute to 15 minutes trader. Having had a quick session with my peer group, I noticed there were a lot of expletives in the conversation. Basically, most were caught off guard and seasoned traders were dipping in and out quickly, again NOT my style. Everyone is waiting on the pullback to re-enter with the trend.\r\n\r\nI was not really too engaged with the market from a LIVE trade perspective last week, so it is hard to review from that viewpoint.\r\n\r\nI closed a few trades here and there to limit RISK but for most of the time I was just following charts looking for entries that never materialized as pullbacks were so shallow they did not represent an entry for me using my TRADE PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\nI finally have some green balances in my broker accounts. If everything pans out the way I think it will this week, it could be a bit more exciting than last week on the basis that I may feel a bit more involved with the moves. Like a lot of you, I was in front of screens for hours last week just observing. This type of activity does sort out the traders from the gamblers though and as I have said on so many occasions patience is a virtue that <u>ALL</u> FX traders require in abundance.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nI am clear on what I want from trading this quarter. If it all pans out “Happy Days”.\r\n\r\nI have a lot of chart work ahead of me over the next few days. I have provisional set ups ready in the following: -\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, NOK/JPY, SEK/JPY, CAD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, USD/CAD, USD/MXN and USD/CHF.\r\n\r\nMost of the above are limit orders via POSITION TRADES. I have drop down limit orders for both RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades based on shorter time frames also on my desk. It’s quite a neat pile of papers. It will just take around 3-4 hours to verify charts, exits and entries, load into my brokers, tweet, email and finally get into the excel system.\r\n\r\nI hope to start sending these out Monday and Tuesday.\r\n\r\nI have already mentioned in the blog in an earlier segment that I am looking to the JPY and NZD this coming week.\r\n\r\nThe inter-market relationships are not correlating and that is a concern for me fundamentally. I am NOT comfortable with RISK when this occurs.\r\n\r\nI believe that RISK OFF that we have not really experienced for several years will be upon us very soon. I am not sure what the catalyst will be to trigger this event, Equities, “LITTLE HANDS”, The FED, The ECB, The BOJ, China, US Treasuries, BREXIT, Germany or “LITTLE ROCKET MAN”.\r\n\r\nThe JPY will be the currency to track this year and as I said last week its rise up the charts is a bonus. The great news is the USD/JPY is liquid.\r\n\r\nUSD weakness is in my opinion going to be a theme in 2018 and this should please “LITTLE HANDS” no end.\r\n\r\nI am therefore looking long EUR/USD and GBP/USD but short with RISK OFF AUD/USD and NZD/USD.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MKT-SENTIMENT-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10827\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MKT-SENTIMENT-20012018-787x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"787\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS and LONGER-TERM TRADE SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. MY TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Prepare and post out as many of my longer-term POSITION TRADE limit orders in the early stages of the week, markets permitting.</li>\r\n 	<li>Add EUR long into my TRADE PLAN strategy following the ECB this Thursday.</li>\r\n 	<li>Continue to coordinate my strategy into my TRADE PLAN vis-à-vis the JPY. This is now very much a tradeable currency in 2018. For me it is similar to Lazarus coming back from the dead.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4:3.2. LONG TERM CORE TRADES SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/CORE-POSITIONS-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10838\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/CORE-POSITIONS-20012018-1024x995.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"995\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10819\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-20012018-1024x1015.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1015\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIMIT-ORDERS-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10818\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIMIT-ORDERS-20012018-1024x960.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"960\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNothing to add here. They were all very quiet last week, with me anyhow.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FINAL SHOTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5:1. WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5:2. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #162 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 20th January 2018\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE USD IS ON \"THE HIGHWAY TO HELL\"', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10837-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-01-20 07:04:09', '2018-01-20 12:04:09', '', 10837, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10837-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
