INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(10083, 1, '2017-09-28 03:49:18', '2017-09-28 08:49:18', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSo, last week may have been my 250th WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU but from my registered subscribers list only 80 of them received the blog direct to their inbox. In fact I discovered that since returning from a short summer vacation from blogging, only the first 80 registered subscribers have been receiving the blog.\r\n\r\nThe reason…\r\n\r\nI switched website hosts from BLUEHOST (who could not maintain my https status due to their system errors) to SITEGROUND who despite a verbal run through of my requirements, have subsequently advised me that only 80 emails can be sent and plug-ins will not work inside my WORDPRESS account to send emails in batches. I thought that things were quiet, I put it down to the time of the year NOT my new hosting partners.\r\n\r\nYou will NOT be surprised to hear that I have been told the email distribution issue is all my fault… the rules are written down somewhere on the SITEGROUND website and my verbal conversation counts for feck all.\r\n\r\nAs a result, and which additionally may provide a better solution, albeit a little timelier from my perspective, I am now using my CONSTANT CONTACT account for 100% of my FREE NEWSLETTER administration and distribution.\r\n\r\nSuffice to say, this discovery and finding a solution to the problem, has been a bit of a distraction from a trading perspective.\r\n\r\nTwo weeks ago, I launched revised subscription options and subscriber PROMOTION at the same time. Part of the launch was to open up for a week the full PREMIUM SERVICE version of the blog to my FREE NEWSLETTER subscribers. On the basis that only 80 would have had the opportunity to see the complete version, I have decided to repeat the process with this week’s “DRIVE THRU’ blog.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so, I have been preparing for and I am now almost ready to launch a replacement video about trading with me through THE PREMIUM SERVICE. I just need to put two or three hours to one side to get it done and edited. I know this sounds totally stupid but getting the time is a killer and I consider myself brilliant at TIME MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nIn addition…\r\n\r\nI mentioned just before the summer break that I was working on some algorithms for trading. I am still not sure how I get these into the PREMIUM SERVICE but these are now ready for further refinement. Again, I just need a couple of hours with my partners on this and then will hopefully be a quick “GREEN FOR GO”.\r\n\r\nBack to trading …\r\n\r\nI have had one of those weeks; distraction and the nagging of hindsight!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFinally, in this section and I should initially mention it here…\r\n\r\nYou will see from the title of this week’s blog; I have had as far as many of you are probably concerned “A Hallelujah Moment”. I will go into my reasons for my 360-degree turnabout in “THE SOAPBOX” later in the blog in section 5.\r\n\r\nFor those regular followers; I think I had a “nose-bleed” moment when I decided I was going long the cable. It still does not feel quite right having been bearish for 15 months.\r\n\r\nOn the Thursday evening after the BOE Super Thursday, I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers telling them that I was now going to change sides and because we are entering the weekend and the fact that North Korea had just launched another missile test, I would look for long GBP trades over the weekend’s charts and start posting trades early this week.\r\n\r\nWTF, as quoted by one of my long-time subscribers “Yer man Gertjan Vlieghe a BOE MPC member somehow read your tweet and decided this was enough to send the cable higher without you”. Very funny. Cable soared through 1.3600 over 220 pips range on the day without the US session. I was asleep through the plough higher from the 1.3400 break out level.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: UK AVERAGE EARNINGS INDEX &amp; “SUPER THURSDAY”. </u>\r\n\r\nI will be going through these headlines later in Section 5 - “THE SOAPBOX” section of the blog.\r\n\r\n<u>USD: INFLATION DATA.\r\n</u>\r\nPPi – dreadful and the USD rallied.\r\n\r\nCore CPI and CPi - Core CPi came in line with expectations and regular CPi was a beat. The USD rallied, sold off, rallied, sold off, rallied and basically it chopped its way throughout Thursday. It was probably not helped by a possible North Korean missile launch news wire.\r\n\r\nCore Retail Sales and Retail Sales – Poor data. Retail Sales was -0.2% against a positive 0.1% and Core Retail Sales 0.2% against 0.5% expectations.\r\n\r\nZero inflation is evident in the Us markets. Demand through Retail Sales has taken a nosedive. It all looks a difficult time for Janet Yellen this week. What has the FED policy done vis-à-vis getting the US economy back on track?\r\n\r\nHere’s a thought…\r\n\r\nAt the FED Press Conference this week. Announce that the poor recent data was due to the weather and that it’s simply transitory as the underlying data supports the current FED policy!\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are US data is much the same as always. If we see good data all I read is FED TO RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER or if we see poor data FED NOT GOING TO RAISE. This is all I see now. I think I have grown so accustomed to this bollocks I do not really read it anymore and I skim the document.\r\n\r\nI think that as traders, we should just react to whatever Janet Yellen says. Everything else is just noise from people who know about as much about what is on the minds of the FOMC as Ozzy my boy Labrador about the FED’S intentions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10007\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017-1024x761.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"761\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVEL:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC is the standout this week. However, there are couple of other bits and pieces that have caught my eye.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong>  Janet Yellen is back on the stage again. Everything about this Press Conference and Rate Statement is only going to be about two subjects: -\r\n\r\nFirstly, when is the FED going to raise rates again. Before the end of 2017 or spill it over into 2018?\r\n\r\nSecondly, will she provide updates about the FED reducing the size of its balance sheet. By how much and when will they start.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I do not think that the rest matters. She will drone on giving us waffle for a good 15-20 minutes, but at the end of the day, in my opinion its only about the above two points. You will see and hear media account executives asking the same questions 50 different ways to let their managers know that they turned up and weren’t “bunking off”, but at the end of the day it could be all over in a “Wham Bam Thank You Mam” 10 minutes maximum and everyone could be down to the pub after 20 minutes writing their pieces.\r\n\r\nThe drama unfolds at 2PM EST and the Press Conference at 2:30PM EST on Wednesday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u>: </strong>On the back off the HAWKISH BOE last week we have Retail Sales this Tuesday. I can see it now on twitter. BOE to definitely hike in November as Retail Sales beat, or, BOE rate hike this year in question as UK Retails sales miss.\r\n\r\nFor Carney to do a complete u turn is not unheard of.\r\n\r\nIf ever you go to lunch with him, beware if you only have one hour for allocated, as he is so indecisive about his choices, you may end up eating nothing or eating alone. Allegedly, Carney cannot make up his mind what to eat and when he does he keeps changing his mind.\r\n\r\nIt is so bad that in local restaurants, close to the Threadneedle Street area of London that are known to accommodate BOE employees they have alternative Mark Carney menus. They include a clause “Mr. Carney, once you have decided upon your choice of food from our menu you cannot change your mind. Regretfully forward guidance is believed and 100% adopted by our chefs. The direction you have chosen is final”\r\n\r\nDo not be surprised if Carney has you brain in a fecking twist up to the end of this year. He is the master of changing one’s mind. If it were an Olympic sport he would win the GOLD MEDAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong>: I am a buyer of CAD$ and I am adding to positions, taking profits here and there as the markets chop back and forth. This week we have CPI and Core Retail Sales, this inflation data will be key for the BOC vis-a-vis another interest rate hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nThe economic data from Canada recently has been really good just the odd bit of mixed data, like the Employment numbers when the mix between Full and Part Time jobs was skewed.\r\n\r\nIf this week’s data does NOT rule out another BOC rate hike, I will be adding more positions to my CORE CAD position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong>:  It is the New Zealand 2017 General Election this Friday. I am generally bearish the Kiwi; however, I believe it would be sound to wind back trades ahead of the result. I have already started this with PREMIUM SERVICE trades and I will continue this process through the week.\r\n\r\nI would imagine the start of trading next weekend will be the time for volatility on a grand scale if we are going to see big moves.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +406 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +7,062 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n\r\nWhat a week last week was.\r\n\r\nI was distracted on several occasions with having to be away to take care of my Jeep’s service but more importantly issues with my new webhost regarding bulk email delivery. The only effective workaround is not to use my WordPress connection through my website but to use my database via constant contact.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, I have changed views with the cable. I have gone into some detail in “THE SOAPBOX”.\r\n\r\nI tweeted last week after the BOE Super Thursday that I would look for GBP trades into this week, as we were into Friday trading session but especially with the missile launches out of North Korea it made sense to wait. I did not, and frankly no-one could have predicted the comments from Gertjan Vlieghe BOE MPC member. He basically sent his own missile under the GBP. His comments are in a different tone from Carney and we should not get too carried away but that detail would not stop the market reaction. It has been an absolute stellar move across the board.\r\n\r\nI added a good total of net +406 pips in the past seven days which is great but it was a difficult choppy week. Ranges are tightening again (GBP pairs excepted). This is what happens when we are about to have a market SHIFT.\r\n\r\nMarket correlations are just not sitting properly. One day they are trusted the next morning when I check charts the previous alignment has drifted apart. The geopolitical tensions have a great deal to do with this as this directly affects safe havens such as GOLD, plus the JPY and CHF currencies. I must mention though after the missile launch last Thursday, my reaction was complete caution, the market was to shrug it off within a couple of hours. Something is going to give with this and it will be ugly when it happens.\r\n\r\nThe geopolitical events when added to the changes taking place with Central Bank policy throughout the world is also fueling the uncertainties, correlation issues and non-alignments across markets. Central bank uncertainties on future policy timing (FED and ECB), the dovish approach in general changing into a hawkish policy approach (BOC and BOE) and uncertainties in delay by trying to maintain a neutral policy stance over a more hawkish stance (RBA and RBNZ).\r\n\r\nAdd all these factors together and its quite a mixing bowl of ingredients. I am just not convinced on everything FX at the moment, I am fearing the worse. I know that I am slow and steady at this but so much complacency to me is just mental.\r\n\r\nBack to trading…\r\n\r\nLooking forward with trades, I will continue to press forward building a CORE CAD POSITION. Obviously short term NZD/CAD due to election will be restricted, CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I will watch more closely than before vis-a-via flight to safety. In addition, given the situation with cable I think that GBP/CAD could be tougher unless we see a USD/CAD fall into the 1.1800’s.\r\n\r\nThe CORE NZD position will have to take back seat until the election is over. Friday last week my AUD/NZD took a beating, but as you know for the last 2 years I have been basically long this pair, it is have given some great returns and I will stick with it. My total position size a sizeable broker account is only 40% of a full-sized position. I could ride this pair substantially lower beyond its monthly ATR on STOP LOSS levels, if required, and still not exceed my risk parameters.\r\n\r\nI need to see the election outcome and reaction before committing more trades. My plan this week it to exit NZD related trades ahead of the vote.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the single currency, I am looking to build a CORE LONG POSITION with the EUR. As you know I have started with EUR/USD, to which I will add more set ups and I need to look at the cross rates this week and add. I have a EUR/CAD short that I entered on a SELL STOP below previous good support. It has given me a nasty rebound spike higher. I extended the STOP to stick with this pair as will follow USD/CAD moves. Annoyingly at the moment the USD/CAD is consolidation before resuming its move lower with the trend. Bounces have been minimal so far.\r\n\r\nI have made many references to cable. I will be posting several pullback entries from the get go this week.\r\n\r\nThere will be quite a bit of LIMIT ORDER activity in the early part of the week.\r\n\r\nWe have the FOMC this week as you are aware, it is the draw of the news events. As you have seen, I have adjusted my entry tactics more of late to using momentum as a means of trade entry by using BUY STOPS and SELL STOP orders. These are NOT my preferred means of entering trades but they are working more times than not. I will continue with these for the time being, they should be of use around the FOMC.\r\n\r\nWhilst I am very positive on my trading to obtain results at the moment I do have market concerns as you know and I have raised them again in the blog. I will try tot to get SPOOKED but we ready for mass exits of trades should the ARMAGEDDON situation arise.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10009\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017-688x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"688\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: USD: MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\nPlease note that now that these charts are PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber only, I am now able to have them focused to existing trades and limit orders as well as future intentions.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10019\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10020\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10018\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10021\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10022\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10023\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10024\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.4: EXISTING &amp; POTENTIAL CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nCAD/CHF – long\r\nUSD/CAD and EUR/CAD – short\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI am adding on pullbacks and getting prepared. I see the BOC raising once more this year as they take aim at the housing bubble and personal lending increase’s.\r\n\r\nI am still targeting much lower levels sub 1.2000 with the USD/CAD. This level if broken should drag all CAD pairs stronger.\r\n\r\nA Couple of weeks ago, ScotiaBank released its latest batch of currency targets and thoughts vis-à-vis the markets. It has another rate hike in the mix for Q4 2017 and two more in 2018. If they were all 0.25% rate increases, that would make a grand total rate of 1.75% by the end of 2018.\r\n\r\nIt is a brave call, but I can see it as well given the fundamentals.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this coming week and to continue to build a CORE SHORT POSITION that enables me to add to and take pips and $$$ from trades as the CAD strengthens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have several live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/CHF short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - One more long AUD/NZD limit order trade, a NZD/JPY short limit order and a EUR/NZD long limit order trades waiting in the wings.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to reduce NZD exposure this week given the fact that the New Zealand General Election takes place on Friday. I will then look at the market sentiment next week to review my future plan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE EUR</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: I have placed multiple LIMIT ORDERS based initially on my thoughts that we would see a larger pullback with the single currency from its break above 1.2000. this materialized only as far as 1.1840.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to look at adding more LIMIT ORDER set ups over the coming days. I still believe that the EUR/USD is going back towards 1.3000. The rhetoric out of the ECB has been calming, but it is questionable that the market is believing anything that comes out of Frankfurt at the moment.\r\n\r\nI will also look at some EUR crosses once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE GBP:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nNothing is in position yet. I believe that there will be some excellent pullback opportunities to enter GBP related trades across the board and I will be looking for these opportunities this week. The only pairs that I am uncertain about are GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF. However, all other crosses should have great potential.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-17092017-1.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10081\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-17092017-1-866x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"866\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10010\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-17092017-967x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"967\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\nCARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET\r\n</strong><strong>(BOE NOW HAWKISH)</strong></p>\r\nOn BOE “Super Thursday” last week interest rates remained on hold but the HAWKISH tone of the Monetary Policy Statement sent the cable on a tear.  Later in the day Mark Carney (BOE Governor) was on the wires fueling the statement content further by openly stating that the next move higher in cable would be upwards and sooner than expected.\r\n\r\nHaving moved about 150 pips on the statement release, Carney’s added comments only placed about another 40 pips on top. It was the comments the following morning (Friday) by BOE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe, who came out and stated that the increase would be soon and more than a one and done which Carney had intimated the prior day. These comments sent the GBP/USD above 1.3600.\r\n\r\nFrom 1.3150 to 1.3600 (450 pips) in basically 24 hours was what you call a substantial shift in sentiment and a stellar move.\r\n\r\nThe comments from Carney, that he has finally let go of the dovish sentiment and admitted a hike was required after months of denial has brought him out of the closet and the dove has now turned hawk.\r\n\r\nBy coincidence upon receipt of the comments from the BOE, but with no closet involved, I have also changed my GBP bias. I am no longer bearish cable in the short / medium term. I am bullish primarily because with cable above the 1.3450 - 1.3500 levels we are now in a bullish trend. The market is now focused on BOE interest rates rather than the political gaffs surrounding BREXIT.\r\n\r\nNow look…\r\n\r\nI still have massive BREXIT reservations and concerns. Theresa May’s government’s handling of the BREXIT negotiations appears poor and not planned. The Tories have a paper-thin majority in the House of Commons.\r\n\r\nHowever, even with this backdrop it looks like that even without a single BREXIT agreement reached and mass confusion reigning over the negotiations, UK households are going to have more cash pressures placed upon them.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I think that this rate increase should it happen is a recipe for disaster. Never trust accountants in deciding these matters. I have said it before, these pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters do not get out much, they live, breathe and survive on historic data and do NOT take into consideration facts in the reality of the present day.\r\n\r\nYou can bet your bottom dollar that any rate increase will be 100% passed on the mortgages and credit card debt. Households that are currently feeling the effects of inflation are about to get a kick in the nuts as living costs are about to move higher. Look out for defaults on loans, mortgages etc. on the increase in the coming months and for “Vlieghe” to intimate multiple interest rate hikes was reckless as it could start something more than just defaults.\r\n\r\nI know some of you will think that the mere fact that the GBP/USD exchange rate is increasing that this is deflationary, and, I agree, but it is a year away at least to feel the deflationary effect. The debt default issues are bubbling under right now beneath the surface prior to adding more pressure through interest rate increases.\r\n\r\nIn addition, do not forget trade will be effected by rate increases. The balancing act is a difficult one to maintain but I am astonished that the pen pushers have gotten their way. Given all the uncertainties on the economy and with BREXIT I would have ran with higher inflation in Q2 2018.\r\n\r\nThere are still a couple of “not sures” emanating from the BOE statement and comments that followed.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Slow rate increases like the FED?</li>\r\n 	<li>Tapering through Balance Sheet reduction of the QE program when will this commence?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThere is a BOE inflation report due in November, this looks like the date for the first rate hike. So, we do not have detail but the markets have basically already started to price in a 0.25% rate increase.\r\n\r\nWhilst I can see the move by the BOE and the sentiment change, I can also see the other side. This is a risky decision if they go ahead.\r\n\r\nStarting Monday I will be hunting down GBP long trades based off pullbacks through Fibonacci retracements. All GBP pairs are overbought, EUR/GBP oversold, but there will be some great trading opportunities in the near term to take advantage of.\r\n\r\nThe BOC obtained almost $0.13 cents on their move higher, if cable were to match this, it would be close to 1.4450.  Whilst I cannot see that given the money flows I can see a challenge of 1.3870 the 61.8% retracement from the pre Brexit June 2016 highs (1.5034) to the December 2106 lows (1.1994).\r\n\r\nWhat happens now if we have a catastrophic BREXIT announcement or a leadership battle in the Tory party or another election is called in the next couple of months?\r\n\r\nInteresting times ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #147 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nSeptember 17th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'CARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10025-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-09-28 03:49:18', '2017-09-28 08:49:18', '', 10025, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10025-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(10084, 1, '2017-09-28 03:51:50', '2017-09-28 08:51:50', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nYou may notice as you digest the blog this week that some long awaited, from my perspective format changes have now been introduced.\r\n\r\nBasically, my FREE NEWSLETTER subscribers have sections 1-3 and now a larger PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers only section 4 completes the blog. This new streamlined approach fits better with my schedule and allows me to be more concise.\r\n\r\nOutstanding items…\r\n\r\nI still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video. Not an excuse but last Thursday I had three hours put to one side for it, but when I first glanced at my screens at 4:30AM it was a sea of RED. No amount of coffee or other stimulant was going to put me in the best of moods for completing a “Mr. Happy” video. It was a 100% warm blue sky day and still warm, my wife and I went out for Lobster instead!!\r\n\r\nMy apologies, I will get this sorted in the coming week with the link placed in this segment of the blog (I think).\r\n\r\nMy EA’s (Expert Advisors - Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding. I had hoped to have progressed these further by now. I feel like I am back in school with this stuff, codes and such like. My partners are being very patient and totally supportive throughout this process.\r\n\r\nThe big issue is going to be how do I bring these EA’s into the PREMIUM SERVICE. I have still got to work that conundrum out!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: RETAIL SALES, BORIS &amp; THERESA MAYS’S SPEECH IN FLORENCE. </u>\r\n\r\nRetail sales were a blowout number. I had read a document from the CBI the day before that had indicated strength in sales so I was ready for it.\r\n\r\nBoris Johnson is flexing, or rumoured to be. The GBP strengthened about 40-50 pips on the news that he may be resigning.\r\n\r\nI digress but I had to laugh, I was on webinar when several Americans chirped up and commented about how poor old Boris was a clown. I only have this to say about clowns …1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI remember the Sunday that Boris announced that he was supporting the BREXIT move, he was then the Mayor of London. That was the start of the cable sell off.  Regretfully, I was long GBP/NZD. I remember being on twitter with a couple of traders I respect, discussing the effects of Boris on the cable.\r\n\r\nHis potential resignation is NOT causing 10% of the shenanigans his BREXIT support move did in the currency market.\r\n\r\nThe best for last…\r\n\r\nTheresa May delivered a politician’s speech in Florence as far as I was concerned. Her previous keynote speech which she did earlier at Lancaster House in London laid out her governments position and basically, I thought she repeated most of that content again. She just stated her position, as is what politicians do. Cable sold off, bounced after the speech and then sold off once again.\r\n\r\nThe EU negotiating team probably loved it, high on rhetoric low on content specifics, full of waffle and bullshit. Just what Brussels would order every day of the week. In fact, Michel Barnier (Head EU negotiator from Brussels) said soon after Theresa May had finished that he found the speech “To be in a constructive spirit”. Need I say anymore.\r\n\r\nMay’s position as leader of the Tories and Prime Minister is tenuous to put it mildly; any sane person not a “Dotard” would look at the job of guiding the UK through BREXIT as a poisoned chalice. Therefore, for now I think no one will challenge her.\r\n\r\nHowever, politicians are a strange breed and there are plenty of clowns wanting to be on the worlds stage. You cannot predict with certainty what might happen.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD: FOMC RARE DECISION STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF... unbelievable … I am probably on my own here with these thoughts so it could be Scott v the World.\r\n\r\nFor the past God only knows how long, the FED has been data dependent. It has been almost to the point of can’t pee unless the data supports it.\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday…\r\n\r\nBollocks to the fecking data. What are they smoking? What are they drinking? Because I want some of that.\r\n\r\nThe FED believes that two record breaking hurricanes (natural disasters) inside a month hitting two of the biggest economically contributing states in the union both with very, very large areas either under water, or with mass construction damage or both are not going to be producing anything for some time.  Yellen said spending is expanding at a moderate rate, investment is increasing and labour data is strengthened. I don’t get it. All the data I have seen lately doesn’t say that and doesn’t support that view.\r\n\r\nThen the cherry on the cake…inflation. What fecking inflation? Oh, yes…transitory. Transitory my arse. The U.S. economy is not in as great shape as we all thought it was going to be.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen “the uber dove” must be on medication as the statement and press conference commentaries were so damn positive.\r\n\r\nThe FED takes us for a pile of numpties. Ben Bernanke before her and Yellen herself tell us what’s suits them at the time. It’s NOT forward guidance, or anything resembling that. That went months ago. This is about covering one’s arse, nothing more and nothing less.\r\n\r\nAll one had to do was look at the markets after the knee jerk reaction to strengthen the USD. The following sessions after the Press Conference the DXY consolidated and then in the following US session it sold off again.\r\n\r\nEquities reaction in the US to the FED balance sheet tightening from next month and an interest rate hike before the end of 2017 plus 3 more in 2018 was what? To do absolutely nothing.\r\n\r\nI was gob smacked by the FX market on Thursday. It did not know what to do. It was clueless, directionless for hours and basically the day was best summed up as being a ‘nonsense, nothing made sense at all”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u><u></u>\r\n\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10038\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-240917-1024x701.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"701\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10039\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-240917-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong>  CONSUMER CONFIDENCE:\r\n\r\nThe Consumer Confidence numbers always interest me because albeit a backward-looking number it lets you know what is going on in the head of the consumer. Not that the data really matters anymore, it would appear that the FED is raising regardless and economic data is no longer considered.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u>:  </strong>CURRENT ACCOUNT<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nWith the major banks now ramping up their processes to leave the City of London the importance of trending this data takes on a greater value. It is inevitable that this number will get worse as BREXIT approaches and the BOE will look at this data and perhaps have an “Oh crap” moment questioning their decision to raise rates. Money flows are monitored and measured closely by the BOE.\r\n\r\nThis could be a surprising market mover.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong>: GDP:\r\n\r\nAfter mixed inflation data, last week this will be used no doubt as a barometer as to whether the BOC will raise again, or not raise again, before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nEconomic data from Canada has been strong and the market is geared up for a hike. A strong number could see an overreaction. Not that we are ever used to seeing the Forex Market overreact!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong>:  RBNZ RATE STATEMENT &amp; CASH RATE:\r\n\r\nHot on the heels of election. I would expect more of the same from the last meeting. Nothing new at all.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +873 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +7,529 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nDespite stormy weather last week I added +467 pips to the annual target. The monthly total now stands at +873 pips and for the year at 7,529 pips.\r\n\r\nThis was achieved without trading the FOMC with fresh trades or Theresa May’s Florence speech last Friday. Staying away from these volatile events certainly pays off, because if you jump in too soon without conviction in the market you are screwed. Having said that I was “OUT” for the FOMC meeting for about 40 minutes!\r\n\r\nI should say, when I finally got back after the FOMC my charts and brokers were just a sea of RED everywhere. I thought shit. I am positioned the wrong way 100% even the trades that should have been OK were NOT. In a rather bizarre, twisted process I found some degree of comfort knowing that all was not aligned. The next day even with a couple of losing trades counted in I still processed +290 pips. My thoughts on non-alignment and being patient with the markets paid off.\r\n\r\nWe end the week on #rocketman and #dotard.\r\n\r\nI covered trades at the end of the week to reduce RISK and I removed a couple of USD related limit orders. These trades will be placed back this week if the NK tensions die down. God only knows what will happen here moving forward.\r\n\r\nDespite adding pips, it is difficult. I am reacting to news rather than technical levels. It is what it is and I know it can be difficult keeping up with me if you are not in the same time zone. However, from my perspective this is the Forex marketplace we trade in and I am up, amending trades making comments on twitter in all time zones and trading sessions.\r\n\r\nI will continue to aim at cross-rate pairs moving forward. Whilst these attract a greater risk they are not dominated directly by the USD and I think in the short to medium terms they make sense to focus on. Of course, should geopolitical tensions rise the liquidity in these pairs that is questionable at the best of times can really dry up, so please be patient. The technicals must line up with the fundamentals for me via my TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nNo ARMAGEDDON TRADES yet, but I will continue to add limit orders to CORE TRADES and POSITIONS next week once again, especially some detailed analysis with the EUR and GBP pairs.<u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD sentiment is mixed. This always happens when geopolitical risks are increased. We should also bear in mind that big news, largely unexpected from the FED has also had its effect of the markets. I strongly suspect many traders, even the large institutional traders were caught off guard by Janet Yellen’s comments. I would not be surprised if many of them used Thursday’s reversal to flatten trades and have a re-think over this weekend.\r\n\r\nAs a retail trader building positions, unless I close off and bank losses I do not have the same luxury as bankers not playing with their own $$$. I must believe in my FUNDAMENTAL thoughts and views and plough on.\r\n\r\nI would not rule out a USD (DXY) bounce higher just to take out USD longs from the market and re-calibrate matters. The market is extremely efficient at times at cleaning up the balance. I am NOT expecting a run higher than the 93.00 level in the DXY then I expect a return in the trend lower again towards c.87.50.\r\n\r\nThis is the foundation of my trading thoughts, short-term plans moving forward. I do not expect the USD spike higher to last longer than a week or so, that is of course should it happen. We may just roll-over.\r\n\r\nThe geopolitical news is making a lot of people twitchy. The USD is no longer the flight to safety that it used to be. GOLD, JPY &amp; CHF are the go to plays now in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MARKET-SENTIMENT-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10040\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MARKET-SENTIMENT-240917-778x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"778\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.3: USD - SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10039\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-240917-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\nPlease note that now that these charts are PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber only, I am now able to have them focused to existing trades and limit orders as well as future intentions.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10050\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10051\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10049\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10052\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10053\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10054\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10055\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI covered and closed open positions on Friday last week to reduce RISK given the North Korea geopolitical circumstances.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this coming week and add back those trades that I removed at the end of last week. Plus, now that the German and New Zealand elections will be decided I can take a longer-term view on NZD/CAD and EUR/CAD once again.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have multiple live long AUD/NZD trades.\r\n\r\nPlus: - One more long AUD/NZD limit order trade.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to add exposure this week following the election. Looking at NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF and NZD/CAD charts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10082\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-24092017-890x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"890\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10041\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-240917-800x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI have spoken with several brokers this past week. They are all fearful of a deteriorating North Korean situation but also a little surprising to me they were all ramping up, or considering ramping up margin requirements due to the German elections.\r\n\r\nAlthough unclear on numbers by percentage, of the four I spoke with and have known for several years retail clients are down. The account bonus offers are finally being seen for what they are, which in my humble opinion is a con. They are desperately seeking another attractive offer to lure in fresh meat!\r\n\r\nThe concept of no slippage, low rate spreads, effective people on chat and quick email turnarounds will eventually hit home and the penny will drop when they realise they can create market differentiation and grow their client base even in a declining market without having to look to acquisition to achieve it.\r\n\r\nSo basically, I learned nothing. No ground-breaking earth shattering developments… yet!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS &amp; IDEAS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nShould you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription that those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nFrom time to time I offer subscription promotions. These can be viewed under the tab FX PROMOTIONS at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nNOTE: There is a promotion in place right now!\r\n\r\nI show below an interesting excel spreadsheet based around my PREMIUM SERVICE monthly subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month. I hope that you find this interesting.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917-912x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #148 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n24th September 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WAS YELLEN’S HAWKISH MOMENT TRANSITORY?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10056-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-09-28 03:51:50', '2017-09-28 08:51:50', '', 10056, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10056-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(10106, 1, '2017-09-29 16:54:49', '2017-09-29 21:54:49', '', 'ECON DATE 01102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'econ-date-01102017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:34:47', '2017-09-30 12:34:47', '', 10145, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10107, 1, '2017-09-29 16:54:57', '2017-09-29 21:54:57', '', 'TCHART 01102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'tchart-01102017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:35:07', '2017-09-30 12:35:07', '', 10145, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10111, 1, '2017-09-29 16:56:50', '2017-09-29 21:56:50', '', 'MKT SENTIMENT 01102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'mkt-sentiment-01102017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:37:44', '2017-09-30 12:37:44', '', 10145, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MKT-SENTIMENT-01102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10112, 1, '2017-09-29 16:56:54', '2017-09-29 21:56:54', '', 'PIPBYPIP COMPARISON SEPT2017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'pipbypip-comparison-sept2017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:09:01', '2017-09-30 12:09:01', '', 6869, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PIPBYPIP-COMPARISON-SEPT2017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10113, 1, '2017-09-29 16:57:19', '2017-09-29 21:57:19', '', 'PS CONSOLIDATED SEPT2017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'ps-consolidated-sept2017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:07:22', '2017-09-30 12:07:22', '', 5002, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PS-CONSOLIDATED-SEPT2017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10114, 1, '2017-09-29 16:57:32', '2017-09-29 21:57:32', '', 'PREM SERV PERF1 01102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'prem-serv-perf1-01102017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:03:04', '2017-09-30 12:03:04', '', 5000, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PREM-SERV-PERF1-01102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10115, 1, '2017-09-29 16:57:36', '2017-09-29 21:57:36', '', 'PREM SERV PERF2 01102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'prem-serv-perf2-01102017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:03:17', '2017-09-30 12:03:17', '', 5000, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PREM-SERV-PERF2-01102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10116, 1, '2017-09-29 16:57:45', '2017-09-29 21:57:45', '', 'PREM SERV 3092017 NET PERF', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'prem-serv-3092017-net-perf', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:03:35', '2017-09-30 12:03:35', '', 5000, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PREM-SERV-3092017-NET-PERF.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10128, 1, '2017-09-29 17:08:33', '2017-09-29 22:08:33', '', 'AUDUSD D 01102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'audusd-d-01102017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:38:47', '2017-09-30 12:38:47', '', 10145, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-01102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10129, 1, '2017-09-29 17:08:37', '2017-09-29 22:08:37', '', 'EURUSD D 01102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'eurusd-d-01102017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:38:28', '2017-09-30 12:38:28', '', 10145, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-01102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10130, 1, '2017-09-29 17:08:40', '2017-09-29 22:08:40', '', 'GBPUSD D 01102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'gbpusd-d-01102017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:38:37', '2017-09-30 12:38:37', '', 10145, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-01102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10131, 1, '2017-09-29 17:08:42', '2017-09-29 22:08:42', '', 'NZDUSD D 01102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nzdusd-d-01102017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:38:55', '2017-09-30 12:38:55', '', 10145, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-01102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10132, 1, '2017-09-29 17:08:45', '2017-09-29 22:08:45', '', 'USDCAD D 01102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdcad-d-01102017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:39:04', '2017-09-30 12:39:04', '', 10145, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-01102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10133, 1, '2017-09-29 17:08:48', '2017-09-29 22:08:48', '', 'USDCHF D 01102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdchf-d-01102017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:39:11', '2017-09-30 12:39:11', '', 10145, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-01102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10134, 1, '2017-09-29 17:08:54', '2017-09-29 22:08:54', '', 'USDJPY D 01102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdjpy-d-01102017', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:39:22', '2017-09-30 12:39:22', '', 10145, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-01102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(10145, 1, '2017-09-30 07:44:18', '2017-09-30 12:44:18', '<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMy PREMIUM SERVICE AUTUMN/FALL PROMOTION ends this weekend, on Sunday 1st October at the market open 5PM EST (New York time) to be precise. So, if you want to get on board and get some $$$ in line for Christmas and beyond go to my website and subscribe. <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThe outstanding items from last week remain outstanding items this week.\r\n\r\nThey are…\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video.</li>\r\n 	<li>My EA’s (Expert Advisors - Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nNot that I need to offer up excuses, but I started cleaning my computer files. I thought that I had all three Macs linked, but… apparently not. My trading computer that drives my screens is purpose built but runs on MSFT software for the brokers and so getting this stuff across and into a library was a little tedious. Those of you who I have interacted with know that I am a trader and NOT a computer whizz kid or geek.\r\n\r\nI recently re-connected with my old neighbour in Dublin, who can run rings around the best of folk on machines, software limits, apps etc. At the best of times, it’s another bloody language to me.\r\n\r\nFrom last week, the word of the week was….\r\n\r\n<strong>“PATIENCE”</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective I banked $$$ and pips but what a struggle. I am carrying CORE POSITIONS now with negative positions and I am patiently waiting for the markets to re-set.\r\n\r\nI will cover the following in more detail later but the GERMAN and NEW ZEALAND ELECTION RESULTS, STEPHEN POLOZ (BOC), JANET YELLEN and “FLIP-FLOPPER” MARK CARNEY to name but a few were all screwing with me.\r\n\r\nI was basically badly positioned for the events but looking down from a MACRO level with my FUNDAMENTALS in place, I feel I am correctly pointed.\r\n\r\nI was trying to be patient and get myself re-positioned to be ready to take advantage moving forward. I am getting there bit by bit with my CORE POSITIONS adjustments have been made and additions are now in place.\r\n\r\nI think back in 2013 I wrote an entire section in the blog about trading with patience is one of the hardest things to do. The need to believe that you must be trading every day, can be overwhelming when in fact cash is a position and to be sidelined for 24-48 hours is not a bad thing to let the markets re-set.\r\n\r\nIt is hard at times because there are other factors hanging over the markets such as NORTH KOREA, the TRUMP TAX PLAN and BREXIT the re-setting takes a little longer as positions are skewed. Also with last week being both a month and quarter end it was quite a cocktail.\r\n\r\nWith some degree of PATIENCE having been applied I am now ready for the final quarter of 2017.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: THE GERMAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS and THE CATALONIA ISSUE.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit. The press never saw that coming. The “Far Right” now have a good number of seats in parliament and poor old Angela Merkel has her work cut out forming a government excluding the “AfD” party.\r\nAmericans point fingers at TRUMP with 48% or whatever it was of the turnout and he occupies the White House. Merkel only received 32% of the popular vote. I am finding it very hard in the west to recall the last government that was in power based upon being more than 50% of the popular vote.\r\n\r\nAnyways back to the point…\r\n\r\nThe election outcome leaves a bitter taste in the mouth of many “jotter blotters” in Brussels as their gravy train of expenses, potted plants, Chateauneuf-du-Pape on Friday’s and lavish pensions may be coming to an end as there are pledges to manage costs… yeah right, my arse!!\r\n\r\nOn that point, I read with interest but absolutely ZERO SURPRISE that EU BREXIT negotiator Michel Barnier, so far has racked up travel expenses to the tune of €47,417.60 since October 1st, 2016. This will be a drop in the ocean when all is said and done. The amount of €€€€ wasted in the EUROPEAN UNION is massive. This bill no matter what it ends up being when added to all the other BREXIT BILLS created will be swept under the carpet as the EU will say it was covered by the UK in their divorce fees. It will be €millions.\r\n\r\nThese; pen pushing, jotter blotters in Brussels know how to spend money… it’s all billable.\r\n\r\nBack to the EUR…\r\n\r\nThe single currency was kicked back from its breakout move by the FOMC the previous week and just as it was starting to breathe again the German Election result kicked it hard in the samosas and from my perspective it looks constructive to re-test lower support levels moving forward.\r\n\r\nAt the time of writing this blog, I freely admit to being a little confused. Is the Catalan vote on or off?\r\n\r\nThe independence vote is creating a constitutional crisis with government in Madrid saying its illegal. The 8 million people or thereabouts who live in North Eastern Spain have wanted independence for some time…in fact quite some time. Courts have already brandished the vote illegal should it go ahead. The government has seized ballot papers and locked polling booths. It’s all very unclear to me what is happening.\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective, obviously, the Catalan vote / issue has the potential to be very EUR negative.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: STEPHEN POLOZ SPEECH IN ST. JOHNS.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF.\r\n\r\nI was NOT alone being wrong footed on this speech. Hindsight is a beautiful thing.\r\n\r\nThe previous rate hikes got so much bang for their buck with a movement of about $0.15cents for a combined increase of 0.50%, the BOC is probably on PROZAC worried about the markets getting carried away with another hike on the cards.\r\n\r\nPoloz reeled everyone back in. “No predetermined path for rates” that\'s a great line. Bottom line, I still see the data from Canada being good and therefore it is inevitable that they will raise rates again this year.\r\n\r\nDare I mention my conspiracy theory once again? I reckon they all go (FED, BOE, ECB and BOC) on the same day. This would have the effect of stopping mad swings day after day in December as Central Banks adjust their policies.\r\n\r\nThen again, from a trading perspective its better if they go one at a time. If you want to trade each event separately there is a choice and a better opportunity to make $$$ as you would be better focused.\r\n\r\nAnyway…\r\n\r\nI had to adjust trades and take losses on the back of the Poloz speech. I am now back and ready to face the BOC and Poloz head on!!\r\n\r\n<u>NZD: RBNZ RATE STATEMENT, CASH RATE and THE GENERAL ELECTION</u>.\r\n\r\nIt’s another WTF!\r\n\r\nI am going to show my age here and some of you may need to google this but Grant “aka Frank” Spencer temporary Governor of the RBNZ, now in charge of the keys to Wheeler’s drinks cabinet for the chaps, announced that New Zealand interest rates would remain accommodative for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nI expected the Kiwi to drop faster than a lead balloon. I was ready, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD on the news not really much happened at all. Not really a flicker… bugger.\r\n\r\nThe Election is still taking its toll. Another weak coalition government needs to be formed. This will take some time by all accounts. PATIENCE with the NZD will be required it will flip-flop around in my opinion between 0.7150 to 0.7250 until we get a resolution.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: CARNEY’S SPEECHES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nThere is nothing much new that I can add to what I have said before about Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nHe has given poor forward guidance over the years since arriving from the BOC replacing Merve “The Swerve” King as BOE Governor. He is a flip flopper, which, in general terms creates market instability the one core part of his job description he is employed to avoid.\r\n\r\nAt times, under the immense pressure of the job (and who would want it!), acts like a modern-day Pontius Pilate. It would not surprise me at a future BOE press conference or Parliamentary Committee hearing if we saw him behind his desk or podium with a basin of water and a hand towel.\r\n\r\nI think Carney has to go through with a one and done rate hike in the UK before the end of 2017. This of course does NOT mean he will despite all the rhetoric around the last interest rate statement and the 3.0% inflation level in the UK.\r\n\r\nCarney has the problem, Kuroda (BOJ), Draghi (ECB) and Janet Yellen at the Fed wished they had… inflation. Carney is caught between the devil and deep blue sea. The accountants (jotter blotters) have squeezed his balls so tight he has bent the knee and yielded to a potential / probable rate hike.\r\n\r\nHis latest speeches have taken the usual path: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The BOE is not the savior of BREXIT.</li>\r\n 	<li>Worried about reckless lending as inflation bites and wages lag.</li>\r\n 	<li>Household debt is concerning, “short term damage… next 2-3 years!”</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe focus by many twitter feeds and analysts last Friday was based on the UK GDP data.  From my perspective given BREXIT and its potential effects on the City of London in particular, the UK Current Account data was more important. Although 90 days backward looking, it highlights the currency demand, income flows, values of imports and exports and basic banking transfers over the previous 90 days.\r\n\r\nWhy is it important to me?\r\n\r\nWith the banking industry and its supporting networks undergoing moves away from the UK as the BREXIT timetable moves forward, the flows will start to dry up causing an imbalance that the BOE must react to.\r\n\r\nThis quarter the forecasted number was:\r\n\r\nMinus £15.8 Billion the actual number was Minus £23.2 Billion.\r\n\r\nI believe a trend of misses will not start to form as banks and related institutions start the shift to mainland Europe and Ireland.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN in or OUT? &amp; HER COMMENTS ABOUT INFLATION.</u>\r\n\r\nThis story will develop over the weekend but as we all know Janet Yellen’s tenure as FED CHAIR ends in February 2018. The debate over whether she stays on or ends had fueled much speculation over recent weeks and months.\r\n\r\nLast Friday it was announced or probably leaked that THE DONALD and his Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin interviewed former FED governor Kevin Warsh about replacing Yellen.\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThis follows on the back of her comments she disclosed last Tuesday during her speech to the National association for Business Economics. Yellen admitted that she doesn’t understand inflation, control of which is the FED’s number one responsibility. Apparently, all the FED’s working models on inflation are wrong.\r\n\r\nFFS…\r\n\r\nWhy didn’t she just resign on the spot?\r\n\r\nThis sort of thing beggar’s belief.\r\n\r\nIs everything about the U.S. just loud voices, bullshit and total bollocks?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10106\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017-1024x805.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"805\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10107\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017-1024x848.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"848\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Not a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:  </u></strong><u>MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMI’s.</u>\r\n\r\nYikes; that was quick month!\r\n\r\nHere we go again with the PMI data. Last month all three were above the 50 line which signifies expansion. The one in danger of slipping below 50 is Construction PMI which last time around stood at 51.1. Should this fall below the dreaded 50 it will in my opinion place the proposed BOE interest rate hike due probably in November on hold.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not I just cannot see the BOE raising rates in the environment that a sub 50 number would create.\r\n\r\nI am expecting a miss from Construction and Manufacturing PMI’s but a beat from the Services PMi.\r\n\r\nThe UK is going through a change and from my buddies on the ground (not literally), it is not being discussed at high level and to a large extent being swept under the carpet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, RETAIL SALES &amp; TRADE BALANCE.</u>\r\n\r\nIt is a big week for the AUD it rejected hard from 0.8000, mostly on the back of comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nDr. Lowe basically said that the Central Bank is not rushing to change direction of monetary policy just because a lot of other Central Banks are choosing to do so. Therefore, I cannot see the Cash Rate being moved from 1.5%.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales last month came in flat at 0.0%. Anything better which I assume we should see this time around will be a beat and be AUD positive.\r\n\r\nTrade Balance is sticky. This number in my opinion could go either way and the data will tell us whether the AUD spikes or continues to drift lower.\r\n\r\nAll three announcements are market movers. Trade Balance and Retail Sales are released at the same time Wednesday just to ensure we have ADVIL on hand!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nSo, after last week’s GDP was a bit soft, I am looking for strong data to support my CORE CAD TRADE POSITION, which for now looks sick. Patience is being applied in huge volume.\r\n\r\nLast month the jobs data disappointed because of the mix between part and full-time positions. I am thinking that it may be more of the same as we start the run up to Thanksgiving and Christmas festivities. Although, I must point out after what is deemed a poor or mediocre number one month from Canada the next month is usually a blowout.\r\n\r\nThis is truly what makes trading currencies such fun!!\r\n\r\nThe Trade Balance number is a sticky one. Last time being CAD$ -3.0 Billion. Trying to obtain very recent up to date data to give me a hint here has proved virtually impossible. More ADVIL required for this one!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: ADP, NON-FARM PAYROLLS and AVERAGE HOURLIES</u>.\r\n\r\nFirst off.\r\n\r\nDo NOT get suckered in to trades based off the ADP numbers when planning your NFP day. The correlation between ADP data on a Wednesday from the private sector and the government data on a Friday has not seen any correlation of late. So, if you want to do a Robert Palmer, “Looking for Clues” there will probably be feck all in expecting NFP to follow ADP numbers.\r\n\r\nI must say this…\r\n\r\nWho give a f**k anyways? The Fed are raising rates come hell or high water, I for one will probably NOT trade NFP, it is a lottery and as an indicator for the FED forget it… that decision has been made. Plus, it looks like Yellen is NOT going to be around to pick up any pieces anyhow.\r\n\r\nI do not think NFP has any real importance this week. I could be proved wrong but I really do feel that the FED are raising no matter what.\r\n\r\nAs for the actual numbers; ADP last month was 237,000 and NFP was 156,000. If NFP keeps roughly to the last 12 month monthly average, the markets should not go too wild.\r\n\r\nThere should be an acceptance in the markets about the perceived FED policy… what am I saying!!\r\n\r\nObviously, the average hourly rate needs to remain positive and a jump of 0.1% would keep the markets happy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nFINAL WEEK THIS MONTH:         +302 pips\r\nMONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2017:  +1,175 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,506 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nSEPTEMBER 2017 – MONTHLY REVIEW:\r\n\r\nAll things said and done I added +302 pips last week. Took a couple of big hits in the process of achieving that total so I am comfortable with that.\r\n\r\nThe Monthly totals were: 1,175 pips for September, which gives an annual position of net + 7,506 pips.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, I am carrying forward a large number of negative pips via my CORE TRADES AUD/NZD and USD/CAD. I am playing the waiting game with both and in fairness I have been taking pips off the AUD/NZD at regular intervals.  With regards to the USD/CAD I took a couple of big pip hits with open position and also this month on closed trades I netted out a negative c.200 pips on the USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI am NOT holding a lot of $$$ losses on my CORE POSITION trades at a level that concern me. In fact, I am well within my 3% tolerance and will continue to add positions. It is just frustrating having to sit these positions out.\r\n\r\nDuring the month, I had good cross-rate trades and some poor ones. I am still finding trading conditions a challenge and all the fiddling about with trades that has to be done is time consuming, messy and labour intensive.\r\n\r\nThis messy and difficult trading conditions has manifested itself in my positive / negative trades percentage falling back a little this month to basically a 69% positive to 31% losing trade ratio (my objective is 75% / 25%).\r\n\r\nDrawdowns are also higher. It was a bizarre month. However, trading smaller and wider helps keep the trade alive. If I must manage wider and longer to stay in the market, I will. My RISK MANAGEMENT per trade is my guide and as long as I do NOT lose command of this area I will tolerate some market deviations.\r\n\r\nIt is a scrappy fucked up market at times and it is what it is… onwards and upwards as they say. If it was perfect world and a perfect market that performs the way it should then HAPPY DAYS!!\r\n\r\nThe fact is, we live and trade in very, very strange times. We need to adjust and adapt as far as I am concerned to keep our heads above water. We need to ignore the dotards and get on with it.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nSome of you have noticed that I have started using MOMENTUM as an entry alternative much more frequently now.\r\n\r\nWhy?\r\n\r\nDead simple; it all goes back to the markets. I know many of you latched onto me for FUNDAMENTAL views and over the years these have stood me in good stead. I do however still study the technical aspect of set-ups, in fact, some of my trading buddies, my peer group are spot on with technical trades.\r\n\r\nHowever, at the moment, they are struggling with technical entries in the same way I was. I will NOT let the grass grow under my feet. If I must adapt I will, trading evolves as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\nPullback entries which were once so reliable are not as reliable at the moment for me as well as members of my peer group. I cannot single out a specific type of trade or specific pair or pairs, it is general.\r\n\r\nI have been testing MOMENTUM set ups for a while and I was achieving an 80% / 20% hit rate, hence, I brought them into the PREMIUM SERVICE. Whether I create a new TRADE STYLE next year who knows, but for now, away from when I add to a CORE POSITION TRADE the MOMENTUM trades are added to RADAR TRADES.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.1.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>Thankfully in the last week the rhetoric between THE DONALD and #rocketman or LITTLE ROCKET MAN as I noticed in a tweet has calmed down a bit.\r\n\r\nTRUMP’s TAX PLAN has been all talk over the U.S. networks and when added to the continuing fallout from the Hurricanes in Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico, the inflammatory commentary from the United Nations and the North Korean responses seem a long time ago.\r\n\r\nWe have had Janet Yellen admit she knows feck all about how inflation works and that all the FED’s financial models are basically shite. At the same time the FOMC decided bollocks to the data we are going to raise rates no matter what. The Balance Sheet reduction is also starting.\r\n\r\nMark Carney is still going to raise rates…or is he?\r\n\r\nMario Draghi had family issues to attend at the end of the week and remarkably the ECB numpties like Nowotny must have had duct tape over their mouths as nothing was uttered in Draghi’s absence. I would say that the ECB council of governors are all on PROZAK, one word out of place and the EUR/USD could be at 1.2250. That, despite the indecision over the German election result.\r\n\r\nNot that it matters much but New Zealand is also in limbo following an indecisive election there last weekend.\r\n\r\nNext week one thing that I want to mention is that I am now going to start building a EUR long position. I look at the EUR/USD chart and the factor that stands out is that 1.1720 looks to be the area, the bottom, where buyers have jumped in. There placing longs with stops just beneath 1.1720 makes sense from my perspective. At least I think I know where the RISK lies.\r\n\r\nThe bigger question is what pairs to focus on in addition to the EUR/USD: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD -\r\nEUR/AUD – Buy Stop in place\r\nEUR/CAD – not 100%\r\nEUR/CHF – already long with RISK level well defined\r\nEUR/GBP – Maybe my parity trade is back on….\r\nEUR/JPY – just not sure about equities but it should rally\r\nEUR/MXN – need to research this one\r\nEUR/NZD – long trade triggered on week end settlement\r\n\r\nWatch this space…\r\n\r\nBack to the sentiment summary…\r\n\r\nSo, it would be fair to say that the market is a bit messy trying to digest all the data and news. I would also say that now the FX market is more news driven than economic data driven. This in my opinion is a key factor in the scrappy markets.\r\n\r\nWe are one news item away from impending doom is how I would sum up trading right here, right now.\r\n\r\nFrom the chart below you can see that the USD is still a little mixed and given what I have just written this should be no surprise.\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MKT-SENTIMENT-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10111\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MKT-SENTIMENT-01102017-774x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"774\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.3: USD - SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10107\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017-1024x848.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"848\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\nPlease note that now that these charts are PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber only, I am now able to have them focused to existing trades and limit orders as well as future intentions.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10129\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10130\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10128\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10131\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10132\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10133\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10134\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n2 x live short USD/CAD trades and 1 x NZD/CAD short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait a little and I will add back additional short USD/CAD trades this coming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 6 x live long AUD/NZD trades, plus a short NZD/CAD and NZD/USD and long 1 x GBP/NZD trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have AUD/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am now on hold pending the political outcome from the general election. I was very disappointed with the reaction to the RBA and believe that I should hold and maintain as we ‘chop around” waiting for an outcome.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10109\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-01102017-871x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"871\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10108\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-01102017-1024x865.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"865\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nThis should come as no surprise.\r\n\r\nI have now heard it from two sources retail trader numbers in Forex are still declining. I tried to get responses last week about this from my brokers and they were cagey to say the least.\r\n\r\nThe brokers (white label ones) have only one attack ‘Freebies” and claw its cost of doing these promotions back through rate spreads.\r\n\r\nBanks pulling out, retail pulling back…holy crap why are some brokers saying market participation is on the increase both financially and with participants?\r\n\r\nAs Spock would say…” fascinating”\r\n\r\nor,\r\n\r\nAs Scott would say… “It’s been on the cards, and a factor ever since the SNB PEG removal on the EUR/CHF”\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS &amp; IDEAS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nShould you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription that those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nFrom time to time I offer subscription promotions. These can be viewed under the tab FX PROMOTIONS at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>NOTE: There is a promotion in place right now and it expires Sunday 1st October at 5PM EST!</strong>\r\n\r\nI show below an interesting excel spreadsheet based around my PREMIUM SERVICE monthly subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month. I hope that you find this interesting.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917-912x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #149 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n1st October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'FED ADMITS IT HAS NO CLUE', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'fed-admits-no-clue', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:44:18', '2017-09-30 12:44:18', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10145', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(10146, 1, '2017-09-30 07:44:18', '2017-09-30 12:44:18', '<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMy PREMIUM SERVICE AUTUMN/FALL PROMOTION ends this weekend, on Sunday 1st October at the market open 5PM EST (New York time) to be precise. So, if you want to get on board and get some $$$ in line for Christmas and beyond go to my website and subscribe. <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThe outstanding items from last week remain outstanding items this week.\r\n\r\nThey are…\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video.</li>\r\n 	<li>My EA’s (Expert Advisors - Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nNot that I need to offer up excuses, but I started cleaning my computer files. I thought that I had all three Macs linked, but… apparently not. My trading computer that drives my screens is purpose built but runs on MSFT software for the brokers and so getting this stuff across and into a library was a little tedious. Those of you who I have interacted with know that I am a trader and NOT a computer whizz kid or geek.\r\n\r\nI recently re-connected with my old neighbour in Dublin, who can run rings around the best of folk on machines, software limits, apps etc. At the best of times, it’s another bloody language to me.\r\n\r\nFrom last week, the word of the week was….\r\n\r\n<strong>“PATIENCE”</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective I banked $$$ and pips but what a struggle. I am carrying CORE POSITIONS now with negative positions and I am patiently waiting for the markets to re-set.\r\n\r\nI will cover the following in more detail later but the GERMAN and NEW ZEALAND ELECTION RESULTS, STEPHEN POLOZ (BOC), JANET YELLEN and “FLIP-FLOPPER” MARK CARNEY to name but a few were all screwing with me.\r\n\r\nI was basically badly positioned for the events but looking down from a MACRO level with my FUNDAMENTALS in place, I feel I am correctly pointed.\r\n\r\nI was trying to be patient and get myself re-positioned to be ready to take advantage moving forward. I am getting there bit by bit with my CORE POSITIONS adjustments have been made and additions are now in place.\r\n\r\nI think back in 2013 I wrote an entire section in the blog about trading with patience is one of the hardest things to do. The need to believe that you must be trading every day, can be overwhelming when in fact cash is a position and to be sidelined for 24-48 hours is not a bad thing to let the markets re-set.\r\n\r\nIt is hard at times because there are other factors hanging over the markets such as NORTH KOREA, the TRUMP TAX PLAN and BREXIT the re-setting takes a little longer as positions are skewed. Also with last week being both a month and quarter end it was quite a cocktail.\r\n\r\nWith some degree of PATIENCE having been applied I am now ready for the final quarter of 2017.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: THE GERMAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS and THE CATALONIA ISSUE.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit. The press never saw that coming. The “Far Right” now have a good number of seats in parliament and poor old Angela Merkel has her work cut out forming a government excluding the “AfD” party.\r\nAmericans point fingers at TRUMP with 48% or whatever it was of the turnout and he occupies the White House. Merkel only received 32% of the popular vote. I am finding it very hard in the west to recall the last government that was in power based upon being more than 50% of the popular vote.\r\n\r\nAnyways back to the point…\r\n\r\nThe election outcome leaves a bitter taste in the mouth of many “jotter blotters” in Brussels as their gravy train of expenses, potted plants, Chateauneuf-du-Pape on Friday’s and lavish pensions may be coming to an end as there are pledges to manage costs… yeah right, my arse!!\r\n\r\nOn that point, I read with interest but absolutely ZERO SURPRISE that EU BREXIT negotiator Michel Barnier, so far has racked up travel expenses to the tune of €47,417.60 since October 1st, 2016. This will be a drop in the ocean when all is said and done. The amount of €€€€ wasted in the EUROPEAN UNION is massive. This bill no matter what it ends up being when added to all the other BREXIT BILLS created will be swept under the carpet as the EU will say it was covered by the UK in their divorce fees. It will be €millions.\r\n\r\nThese; pen pushing, jotter blotters in Brussels know how to spend money… it’s all billable.\r\n\r\nBack to the EUR…\r\n\r\nThe single currency was kicked back from its breakout move by the FOMC the previous week and just as it was starting to breathe again the German Election result kicked it hard in the samosas and from my perspective it looks constructive to re-test lower support levels moving forward.\r\n\r\nAt the time of writing this blog, I freely admit to being a little confused. Is the Catalan vote on or off?\r\n\r\nThe independence vote is creating a constitutional crisis with government in Madrid saying its illegal. The 8 million people or thereabouts who live in North Eastern Spain have wanted independence for some time…in fact quite some time. Courts have already brandished the vote illegal should it go ahead. The government has seized ballot papers and locked polling booths. It’s all very unclear to me what is happening.\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective, obviously, the Catalan vote / issue has the potential to be very EUR negative.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: STEPHEN POLOZ SPEECH IN ST. JOHNS.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF.\r\n\r\nI was NOT alone being wrong footed on this speech. Hindsight is a beautiful thing.\r\n\r\nThe previous rate hikes got so much bang for their buck with a movement of about $0.15cents for a combined increase of 0.50%, the BOC is probably on PROZAC worried about the markets getting carried away with another hike on the cards.\r\n\r\nPoloz reeled everyone back in. “No predetermined path for rates” that\'s a great line. Bottom line, I still see the data from Canada being good and therefore it is inevitable that they will raise rates again this year.\r\n\r\nDare I mention my conspiracy theory once again? I reckon they all go (FED, BOE, ECB and BOC) on the same day. This would have the effect of stopping mad swings day after day in December as Central Banks adjust their policies.\r\n\r\nThen again, from a trading perspective its better if they go one at a time. If you want to trade each event separately there is a choice and a better opportunity to make $$$ as you would be better focused.\r\n\r\nAnyway…\r\n\r\nI had to adjust trades and take losses on the back of the Poloz speech. I am now back and ready to face the BOC and Poloz head on!!\r\n\r\n<u>NZD: RBNZ RATE STATEMENT, CASH RATE and THE GENERAL ELECTION</u>.\r\n\r\nIt’s another WTF!\r\n\r\nI am going to show my age here and some of you may need to google this but Grant “aka Frank” Spencer temporary Governor of the RBNZ, now in charge of the keys to Wheeler’s drinks cabinet for the chaps, announced that New Zealand interest rates would remain accommodative for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nI expected the Kiwi to drop faster than a lead balloon. I was ready, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD on the news not really much happened at all. Not really a flicker… bugger.\r\n\r\nThe Election is still taking its toll. Another weak coalition government needs to be formed. This will take some time by all accounts. PATIENCE with the NZD will be required it will flip-flop around in my opinion between 0.7150 to 0.7250 until we get a resolution.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: CARNEY’S SPEECHES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nThere is nothing much new that I can add to what I have said before about Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nHe has given poor forward guidance over the years since arriving from the BOC replacing Merve “The Swerve” King as BOE Governor. He is a flip flopper, which, in general terms creates market instability the one core part of his job description he is employed to avoid.\r\n\r\nAt times, under the immense pressure of the job (and who would want it!), acts like a modern-day Pontius Pilate. It would not surprise me at a future BOE press conference or Parliamentary Committee hearing if we saw him behind his desk or podium with a basin of water and a hand towel.\r\n\r\nI think Carney has to go through with a one and done rate hike in the UK before the end of 2017. This of course does NOT mean he will despite all the rhetoric around the last interest rate statement and the 3.0% inflation level in the UK.\r\n\r\nCarney has the problem, Kuroda (BOJ), Draghi (ECB) and Janet Yellen at the Fed wished they had… inflation. Carney is caught between the devil and deep blue sea. The accountants (jotter blotters) have squeezed his balls so tight he has bent the knee and yielded to a potential / probable rate hike.\r\n\r\nHis latest speeches have taken the usual path: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The BOE is not the savior of BREXIT.</li>\r\n 	<li>Worried about reckless lending as inflation bites and wages lag.</li>\r\n 	<li>Household debt is concerning, “short term damage… next 2-3 years!”</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe focus by many twitter feeds and analysts last Friday was based on the UK GDP data.  From my perspective given BREXIT and its potential effects on the City of London in particular, the UK Current Account data was more important. Although 90 days backward looking, it highlights the currency demand, income flows, values of imports and exports and basic banking transfers over the previous 90 days.\r\n\r\nWhy is it important to me?\r\n\r\nWith the banking industry and its supporting networks undergoing moves away from the UK as the BREXIT timetable moves forward, the flows will start to dry up causing an imbalance that the BOE must react to.\r\n\r\nThis quarter the forecasted number was:\r\n\r\nMinus £15.8 Billion the actual number was Minus £23.2 Billion.\r\n\r\nI believe a trend of misses will not start to form as banks and related institutions start the shift to mainland Europe and Ireland.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN in or OUT? &amp; HER COMMENTS ABOUT INFLATION.</u>\r\n\r\nThis story will develop over the weekend but as we all know Janet Yellen’s tenure as FED CHAIR ends in February 2018. The debate over whether she stays on or ends had fueled much speculation over recent weeks and months.\r\n\r\nLast Friday it was announced or probably leaked that THE DONALD and his Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin interviewed former FED governor Kevin Warsh about replacing Yellen.\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThis follows on the back of her comments she disclosed last Tuesday during her speech to the National association for Business Economics. Yellen admitted that she doesn’t understand inflation, control of which is the FED’s number one responsibility. Apparently, all the FED’s working models on inflation are wrong.\r\n\r\nFFS…\r\n\r\nWhy didn’t she just resign on the spot?\r\n\r\nThis sort of thing beggar’s belief.\r\n\r\nIs everything about the U.S. just loud voices, bullshit and total bollocks?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10106\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017-1024x805.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"805\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10107\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017-1024x848.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"848\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Not a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:  </u></strong><u>MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMI’s.</u>\r\n\r\nYikes; that was quick month!\r\n\r\nHere we go again with the PMI data. Last month all three were above the 50 line which signifies expansion. The one in danger of slipping below 50 is Construction PMI which last time around stood at 51.1. Should this fall below the dreaded 50 it will in my opinion place the proposed BOE interest rate hike due probably in November on hold.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not I just cannot see the BOE raising rates in the environment that a sub 50 number would create.\r\n\r\nI am expecting a miss from Construction and Manufacturing PMI’s but a beat from the Services PMi.\r\n\r\nThe UK is going through a change and from my buddies on the ground (not literally), it is not being discussed at high level and to a large extent being swept under the carpet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, RETAIL SALES &amp; TRADE BALANCE.</u>\r\n\r\nIt is a big week for the AUD it rejected hard from 0.8000, mostly on the back of comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nDr. Lowe basically said that the Central Bank is not rushing to change direction of monetary policy just because a lot of other Central Banks are choosing to do so. Therefore, I cannot see the Cash Rate being moved from 1.5%.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales last month came in flat at 0.0%. Anything better which I assume we should see this time around will be a beat and be AUD positive.\r\n\r\nTrade Balance is sticky. This number in my opinion could go either way and the data will tell us whether the AUD spikes or continues to drift lower.\r\n\r\nAll three announcements are market movers. Trade Balance and Retail Sales are released at the same time Wednesday just to ensure we have ADVIL on hand!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nSo, after last week’s GDP was a bit soft, I am looking for strong data to support my CORE CAD TRADE POSITION, which for now looks sick. Patience is being applied in huge volume.\r\n\r\nLast month the jobs data disappointed because of the mix between part and full-time positions. I am thinking that it may be more of the same as we start the run up to Thanksgiving and Christmas festivities. Although, I must point out after what is deemed a poor or mediocre number one month from Canada the next month is usually a blowout.\r\n\r\nThis is truly what makes trading currencies such fun!!\r\n\r\nThe Trade Balance number is a sticky one. Last time being CAD$ -3.0 Billion. Trying to obtain very recent up to date data to give me a hint here has proved virtually impossible. More ADVIL required for this one!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: ADP, NON-FARM PAYROLLS and AVERAGE HOURLIES</u>.\r\n\r\nFirst off.\r\n\r\nDo NOT get suckered in to trades based off the ADP numbers when planning your NFP day. The correlation between ADP data on a Wednesday from the private sector and the government data on a Friday has not seen any correlation of late. So, if you want to do a Robert Palmer, “Looking for Clues” there will probably be feck all in expecting NFP to follow ADP numbers.\r\n\r\nI must say this…\r\n\r\nWho give a f**k anyways? The Fed are raising rates come hell or high water, I for one will probably NOT trade NFP, it is a lottery and as an indicator for the FED forget it… that decision has been made. Plus, it looks like Yellen is NOT going to be around to pick up any pieces anyhow.\r\n\r\nI do not think NFP has any real importance this week. I could be proved wrong but I really do feel that the FED are raising no matter what.\r\n\r\nAs for the actual numbers; ADP last month was 237,000 and NFP was 156,000. If NFP keeps roughly to the last 12 month monthly average, the markets should not go too wild.\r\n\r\nThere should be an acceptance in the markets about the perceived FED policy… what am I saying!!\r\n\r\nObviously, the average hourly rate needs to remain positive and a jump of 0.1% would keep the markets happy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nFINAL WEEK THIS MONTH:         +302 pips\r\nMONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2017:  +1,175 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,506 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nSEPTEMBER 2017 – MONTHLY REVIEW:\r\n\r\nAll things said and done I added +302 pips last week. Took a couple of big hits in the process of achieving that total so I am comfortable with that.\r\n\r\nThe Monthly totals were: 1,175 pips for September, which gives an annual position of net + 7,506 pips.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, I am carrying forward a large number of negative pips via my CORE TRADES AUD/NZD and USD/CAD. I am playing the waiting game with both and in fairness I have been taking pips off the AUD/NZD at regular intervals.  With regards to the USD/CAD I took a couple of big pip hits with open position and also this month on closed trades I netted out a negative c.200 pips on the USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI am NOT holding a lot of $$$ losses on my CORE POSITION trades at a level that concern me. In fact, I am well within my 3% tolerance and will continue to add positions. It is just frustrating having to sit these positions out.\r\n\r\nDuring the month, I had good cross-rate trades and some poor ones. I am still finding trading conditions a challenge and all the fiddling about with trades that has to be done is time consuming, messy and labour intensive.\r\n\r\nThis messy and difficult trading conditions has manifested itself in my positive / negative trades percentage falling back a little this month to basically a 69% positive to 31% losing trade ratio (my objective is 75% / 25%).\r\n\r\nDrawdowns are also higher. It was a bizarre month. However, trading smaller and wider helps keep the trade alive. If I must manage wider and longer to stay in the market, I will. My RISK MANAGEMENT per trade is my guide and as long as I do NOT lose command of this area I will tolerate some market deviations.\r\n\r\nIt is a scrappy fucked up market at times and it is what it is… onwards and upwards as they say. If it was perfect world and a perfect market that performs the way it should then HAPPY DAYS!!\r\n\r\nThe fact is, we live and trade in very, very strange times. We need to adjust and adapt as far as I am concerned to keep our heads above water. We need to ignore the dotards and get on with it.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nSome of you have noticed that I have started using MOMENTUM as an entry alternative much more frequently now.\r\n\r\nWhy?\r\n\r\nDead simple; it all goes back to the markets. I know many of you latched onto me for FUNDAMENTAL views and over the years these have stood me in good stead. I do however still study the technical aspect of set-ups, in fact, some of my trading buddies, my peer group are spot on with technical trades.\r\n\r\nHowever, at the moment, they are struggling with technical entries in the same way I was. I will NOT let the grass grow under my feet. If I must adapt I will, trading evolves as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\nPullback entries which were once so reliable are not as reliable at the moment for me as well as members of my peer group. I cannot single out a specific type of trade or specific pair or pairs, it is general.\r\n\r\nI have been testing MOMENTUM set ups for a while and I was achieving an 80% / 20% hit rate, hence, I brought them into the PREMIUM SERVICE. Whether I create a new TRADE STYLE next year who knows, but for now, away from when I add to a CORE POSITION TRADE the MOMENTUM trades are added to RADAR TRADES.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.1.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>Thankfully in the last week the rhetoric between THE DONALD and #rocketman or LITTLE ROCKET MAN as I noticed in a tweet has calmed down a bit.\r\n\r\nTRUMP’s TAX PLAN has been all talk over the U.S. networks and when added to the continuing fallout from the Hurricanes in Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico, the inflammatory commentary from the United Nations and the North Korean responses seem a long time ago.\r\n\r\nWe have had Janet Yellen admit she knows feck all about how inflation works and that all the FED’s financial models are basically shite. At the same time the FOMC decided bollocks to the data we are going to raise rates no matter what. The Balance Sheet reduction is also starting.\r\n\r\nMark Carney is still going to raise rates…or is he?\r\n\r\nMario Draghi had family issues to attend at the end of the week and remarkably the ECB numpties like Nowotny must have had duct tape over their mouths as nothing was uttered in Draghi’s absence. I would say that the ECB council of governors are all on PROZAK, one word out of place and the EUR/USD could be at 1.2250. That, despite the indecision over the German election result.\r\n\r\nNot that it matters much but New Zealand is also in limbo following an indecisive election there last weekend.\r\n\r\nNext week one thing that I want to mention is that I am now going to start building a EUR long position. I look at the EUR/USD chart and the factor that stands out is that 1.1720 looks to be the area, the bottom, where buyers have jumped in. There placing longs with stops just beneath 1.1720 makes sense from my perspective. At least I think I know where the RISK lies.\r\n\r\nThe bigger question is what pairs to focus on in addition to the EUR/USD: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD -\r\nEUR/AUD – Buy Stop in place\r\nEUR/CAD – not 100%\r\nEUR/CHF – already long with RISK level well defined\r\nEUR/GBP – Maybe my parity trade is back on….\r\nEUR/JPY – just not sure about equities but it should rally\r\nEUR/MXN – need to research this one\r\nEUR/NZD – long trade triggered on week end settlement\r\n\r\nWatch this space…\r\n\r\nBack to the sentiment summary…\r\n\r\nSo, it would be fair to say that the market is a bit messy trying to digest all the data and news. I would also say that now the FX market is more news driven than economic data driven. This in my opinion is a key factor in the scrappy markets.\r\n\r\nWe are one news item away from impending doom is how I would sum up trading right here, right now.\r\n\r\nFrom the chart below you can see that the USD is still a little mixed and given what I have just written this should be no surprise.\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MKT-SENTIMENT-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10111\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MKT-SENTIMENT-01102017-774x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"774\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.3: USD - SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10107\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017-1024x848.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"848\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\nPlease note that now that these charts are PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber only, I am now able to have them focused to existing trades and limit orders as well as future intentions.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10129\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10130\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10128\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10131\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10132\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10133\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10134\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-01102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n2 x live short USD/CAD trades and 1 x NZD/CAD short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait a little and I will add back additional short USD/CAD trades this coming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 6 x live long AUD/NZD trades, plus a short NZD/CAD and NZD/USD and long 1 x GBP/NZD trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have AUD/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am now on hold pending the political outcome from the general election. I was very disappointed with the reaction to the RBA and believe that I should hold and maintain as we ‘chop around” waiting for an outcome.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10109\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-01102017-871x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"871\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10108\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-01102017-1024x865.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"865\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nThis should come as no surprise.\r\n\r\nI have now heard it from two sources retail trader numbers in Forex are still declining. I tried to get responses last week about this from my brokers and they were cagey to say the least.\r\n\r\nThe brokers (white label ones) have only one attack ‘Freebies” and claw its cost of doing these promotions back through rate spreads.\r\n\r\nBanks pulling out, retail pulling back…holy crap why are some brokers saying market participation is on the increase both financially and with participants?\r\n\r\nAs Spock would say…” fascinating”\r\n\r\nor,\r\n\r\nAs Scott would say… “It’s been on the cards, and a factor ever since the SNB PEG removal on the EUR/CHF”\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS &amp; IDEAS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nShould you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription that those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nFrom time to time I offer subscription promotions. These can be viewed under the tab FX PROMOTIONS at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>NOTE: There is a promotion in place right now and it expires Sunday 1st October at 5PM EST!</strong>\r\n\r\nI show below an interesting excel spreadsheet based around my PREMIUM SERVICE monthly subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month. I hope that you find this interesting.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917-912x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #149 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n1st October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'FED ADMITS IT HAS NO CLUE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10145-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-09-30 07:44:18', '2017-09-30 12:44:18', '', 10145, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10145-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(10147, 1, '2017-09-30 08:00:35', '2017-09-30 13:00:35', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMy PREMIUM SERVICE AUTUMN/FALL PROMOTION ends this weekend, on Sunday 1st October at the market open 5PM EST (New York time) to be precise. So, if you want to get on board and get some $$$ in line for Christmas and beyond go to my website and subscribe. <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThe outstanding items from last week remain outstanding items this week.\r\n\r\nThey are…\r\n\r\nI still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video.\r\n\r\nMy EA’s (Expert Advisors - Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding.\r\n\r\nNot that I need to offer up excuses, but I started cleaning my computer files. I thought that I had all three Macs linked, but… apparently not. My trading computer that drives my screens is purpose built but runs on MSFT software for the brokers and so getting this stuff across and into a library was a little tedious. Those of you who I have interacted with know that I am a trader and NOT a computer whizz kid or geek.\r\n\r\nI recently re-connected with my old neighbour in Dublin, who can run rings around the best of folk on machines, software limits, apps etc. At the best of times, it’s another bloody language to me.\r\n\r\nFrom last week, the word of the week was….\r\n\r\n<strong>“PATIENCE”</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective I banked $$$ and pips but what a struggle. I am carrying CORE POSITIONS now with negative positions and I am patiently waiting for the markets to re-set.\r\n\r\nI will cover the following in more detail later but the GERMAN and NEW ZEALAND ELECTION RESULTS, STEPHEN POLOZ (BOC), JANET YELLEN and “FLIP-FLOPPER” MARK CARNEY to name but a few were all screwing with me.\r\n\r\nI was basically badly positioned for the events but looking down from a MACRO level with my FUNDAMENTALS in place, I feel I am correctly pointed.\r\n\r\nI was trying to be patient and get myself re-positioned to be ready to take advantage moving forward. I am getting there bit by bit with my CORE POSITIONS adjustments have been made and additions are now in place.\r\n\r\nI think back in 2013 I wrote an entire section in the blog about trading with patience is one of the hardest things to do. The need to believe that you must be trading every day, can be overwhelming when in fact cash is a position and to be sidelined for 24-48 hours is not a bad thing to let the markets re-set.\r\n\r\nIt is hard at times because there are other factors hanging over the markets such as NORTH KOREA, the TRUMP TAX PLAN and BREXIT the re-setting takes a little longer as positions are skewed. Also with last week being both a month and quarter end it was quite a cocktail.\r\n\r\nWith some degree of PATIENCE having been applied I am now ready for the final quarter of 2017.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nIn no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: THE GERMAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS and THE CATALONIA ISSUE.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit. The press never saw that coming. The “Far Right” now have a good number of seats in parliament and poor old Angela Merkel has her work cut out forming a government excluding the “AfD” party.\r\nAmericans point fingers at TRUMP with 48% or whatever it was of the turnout and he occupies the White House. Merkel only received 32% of the popular vote. I am finding it very hard in the west to recall the last government that was in power based upon being more than 50% of the popular vote.\r\n\r\nAnyways back to the point…\r\n\r\nThe election outcome leaves a bitter taste in the mouth of many “jotter blotters” in Brussels as their gravy train of expenses, potted plants, Chateauneuf-du-Pape on Friday’s and lavish pensions may be coming to an end as there are pledges to manage costs… yeah right, my arse!!\r\n\r\nOn that point, I read with interest but absolutely ZERO SURPRISE that EU BREXIT negotiator Michel Barnier, so far has racked up travel expenses to the tune of €47,417.60 since October 1st, 2016. This will be a drop in the ocean when all is said and done. The amount of €€€€ wasted in the EUROPEAN UNION is massive. This bill no matter what it ends up being when added to all the other BREXIT BILLS created will be swept under the carpet as the EU will say it was covered by the UK in their divorce fees. It will be €millions.\r\n\r\nThese; pen pushing, jotter blotters in Brussels know how to spend money… it’s all billable.\r\n\r\nBack to the EUR…\r\n\r\nThe single currency was kicked back from its breakout move by the FOMC the previous week and just as it was starting to breathe again the German Election result kicked it hard in the samosas and from my perspective it looks constructive to re-test lower support levels moving forward.\r\n\r\nAt the time of writing this blog, I freely admit to being a little confused. Is the Catalan vote on or off?\r\n\r\nThe independence vote is creating a constitutional crisis with government in Madrid saying its illegal. The 8 million people or thereabouts who live in North Eastern Spain have wanted independence for some time…in fact quite some time. Courts have already brandished the vote illegal should it go ahead. The government has seized ballot papers and locked polling booths. It’s all very unclear to me what is happening.\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective, obviously, the Catalan vote / issue has the potential to be very EUR negative.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: STEPHEN POLOZ SPEECH IN ST. JOHNS.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF.\r\n\r\nI was NOT alone being wrong footed on this speech. Hindsight is a beautiful thing.\r\n\r\nThe previous rate hikes got so much bang for their buck with a movement of about $0.15cents for a combined increase of 0.50%, the BOC is probably on PROZAC worried about the markets getting carried away with another hike on the cards.\r\n\r\nPoloz reeled everyone back in. “No predetermined path for rates” that\'s a great line. Bottom line, I still see the data from Canada being good and therefore it is inevitable that they will raise rates again this year.\r\n\r\nDare I mention my conspiracy theory once again? I reckon they all go (FED, BOE, ECB and BOC) on the same day. This would have the effect of stopping mad swings day after day in December as Central Banks adjust their policies.\r\n\r\nThen again, from a trading perspective its better if they go one at a time. If you want to trade each event separately there is a choice and a better opportunity to make $$$ as you would be better focused.\r\n\r\nAnyway…\r\n\r\nI had to adjust trades and take losses on the back of the Poloz speech. I am now back and ready to face the BOC and Poloz head on!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>NZD: RBNZ RATE STATEMENT, CASH RATE and THE GENERAL ELECTION</u>.\r\n\r\nIt’s another WTF!\r\n\r\nI am going to show my age here and some of you may need to google this but Grant “aka Frank” Spencer temporary Governor of the RBNZ, now in charge of the keys to Wheeler’s drinks cabinet for the chaps, announced that New Zealand interest rates would remain accommodative for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nI expected the Kiwi to drop faster than a lead balloon. I was ready, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD on the news not really much happened at all. Not really a flicker… bugger.\r\n\r\nThe Election is still taking its toll. Another weak coalition government needs to be formed. This will take some time by all accounts. PATIENCE with the NZD will be required it will flip-flop around in my opinion between 0.7150 to 0.7250 until we get a resolution.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: CARNEY’S SPEECHES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nThere is nothing much new that I can add to what I have said before about Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nHe has given poor forward guidance over the years since arriving from the BOC replacing Merve “The Swerve” King as BOE Governor. He is a flip flopper, which, in general terms creates market instability the one core part of his job description he is employed to avoid.\r\n\r\nAt times, under the immense pressure of the job (and who would want it!), acts like a modern-day Pontius Pilate. It would not surprise me at a future BOE press conference or Parliamentary Committee hearing if we saw him behind his desk or podium with a basin of water and a hand towel.\r\n\r\nI think Carney has to go through with a one and done rate hike in the UK before the end of 2017. This of course does NOT mean he will despite all the rhetoric around the last interest rate statement and the 3.0% inflation level in the UK.\r\n\r\nCarney has the problem, Kuroda (BOJ), Draghi (ECB) and Janet Yellen at the Fed wished they had… inflation. Carney is caught between the devil and deep blue sea. The accountants (jotter blotters) have squeezed his balls so tight he has bent the knee and yielded to a potential / probable rate hike.\r\n\r\nHis latest speeches have taken the usual path: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The BOE is not the savior of BREXIT.</li>\r\n 	<li>Worried about reckless lending as inflation bites and wages lag.</li>\r\n 	<li>Household debt is concerning, “short term damage… next 2-3 years!”</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe focus by many twitter feeds and analysts last Friday was based on the UK GDP data.  From my perspective given BREXIT and its potential effects on the City of London in particular, the UK Current Account data was more important. Although 90 days backward looking, it highlights the currency demand, income flows, values of imports and exports and basic banking transfers over the previous 90 days.\r\n\r\nWhy is it important to me?\r\n\r\nWith the banking industry and its supporting networks undergoing moves away from the UK as the BREXIT timetable moves forward, the flows will start to dry up causing an imbalance that the BOE must react to.\r\n\r\nThis quarter the forecasted number was:\r\n\r\nMinus £15.8 Billion the actual number was Minus £23.2 Billion.\r\n\r\nI believe a trend of misses will not start to form as banks and related institutions start the shift to mainland Europe and Ireland.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN in or OUT? &amp; HER COMMENTS ABOUT INFLATION.</u>\r\n\r\nThis story will develop over the weekend but as we all know Janet Yellen’s tenure as FED CHAIR ends in February 2018. The debate over whether she stays on or ends had fueled much speculation over recent weeks and months.\r\n\r\nLast Friday it was announced or probably leaked that THE DONALD and his Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin interviewed former FED governor Kevin Warsh about replacing Yellen.\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThis follows on the back of her comments she disclosed last Tuesday during her speech to the National association for Business Economics. Yellen admitted that she doesn’t understand inflation, control of which is the FED’s number one responsibility. Apparently, all the FED’s working models on inflation are wrong.\r\n\r\nFFS…\r\n\r\nWhy didn’t she just resign on the spot?\r\n\r\nThis sort of thing beggar’s belief.\r\n\r\nIs everything about the U.S. just loud voices, bullshit and total bollocks?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10106\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017-1024x805.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"805\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10107\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017-1024x848.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"848\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:  </u></strong><u>MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMI’s.</u>\r\n\r\nYikes; that was quick month!\r\n\r\nHere we go again with the PMI data. Last month all three were above the 50 line which signifies expansion. The one in danger of slipping below 50 is Construction PMI which last time around stood at 51.1. Should this fall below the dreaded 50 it will in my opinion place the proposed BOE interest rate hike due probably in November on hold.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not I just cannot see the BOE raising rates in the environment that a sub 50 number would create.\r\n\r\nI am expecting a miss from Construction and Manufacturing PMI’s but a beat from the Services PMi.\r\n\r\nThe UK is going through a change and from my buddies on the ground (not literally), it is not being discussed at high level and to a large extent being swept under the carpet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, RETAIL SALES &amp; TRADE BALANCE.</u>\r\n\r\nIt is a big week for the AUD it rejected hard from 0.8000, mostly on the back of comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nDr. Lowe basically said that the Central Bank is not rushing to change direction of monetary policy just because a lot of other Central Banks are choosing to do so. Therefore, I cannot see the Cash Rate being moved from 1.5%.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales last month came in flat at 0.0%. Anything better which I assume we should see this time around will be a beat and be AUD positive.\r\n\r\nTrade Balance is sticky. This number in my opinion could go either way and the data will tell us whether the AUD spikes or continues to drift lower.\r\n\r\nAll three announcements are market movers. Trade Balance and Retail Sales are released at the same time Wednesday just to ensure we have ADVIL on hand!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nSo, after last week’s GDP was a bit soft, I am looking for strong data to support my CORE CAD TRADE POSITION, which for now looks sick. Patience is being applied in huge volume.\r\n\r\nLast month the jobs data disappointed because of the mix between part and full-time positions. I am thinking that it may be more of the same as we start the run up to Thanksgiving and Christmas festivities. Although, I must point out after what is deemed a poor or mediocre number one month from Canada the next month is usually a blowout.\r\n\r\nThis is truly what makes trading currencies such fun!!\r\n\r\nThe Trade Balance number is a sticky one. Last time being CAD$ -3.0 Billion. Trying to obtain very recent up to date data to give me a hint here has proved virtually impossible. More ADVIL required for this one!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: ADP, NON-FARM PAYROLLS and AVERAGE HOURLIES</u>.\r\n\r\nFirst off.\r\n\r\nDo NOT get suckered in to trades based off the ADP numbers when planning your NFP day. The correlation between ADP data on a Wednesday from the private sector and the government data on a Friday has not seen any correlation of late. So, if you want to do a Robert Palmer, “Looking for Clues” there will probably be feck all in expecting NFP to follow ADP numbers.\r\n\r\nI must say this…\r\n\r\nWho give a f**k anyways? The Fed are raising rates come hell or high water, I for one will probably NOT trade NFP, it is a lottery and as an indicator for the FED forget it… that decision has been made. Plus, it looks like Yellen is NOT going to be around to pick up any pieces anyhow.\r\n\r\nI do not think NFP has any real importance this week. I could be proved wrong but I really do feel that the FED are raising no matter what.\r\n\r\nAs for the actual numbers; ADP last month was 237,000 and NFP was 156,000. If NFP keeps roughly to the last 12 month monthly average, the markets should not go too wild.\r\n\r\nThere should be an acceptance in the markets about the perceived FED policy… what am I saying!!\r\n\r\nObviously, the average hourly rate needs to remain positive and a jump of 0.1% would keep the markets happy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nFINAL WEEK THIS MONTH:         +302 pips\r\nMONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2017:  +1,175 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,506 net pips\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<u></u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.1.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.3: USD - SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u><u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS &amp; IDEAS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nShould you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription that those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nFrom time to time I offer subscription promotions. These can be viewed under the tab FX PROMOTIONS at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>NOTE: There is a promotion in place right now and it expires Sunday 1st October at 5PM EST!</strong>\r\n\r\nI show below an interesting excel spreadsheet based around my PREMIUM SERVICE monthly subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month. I hope that you find this interesting.\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917-912x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #253 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n1st October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'FED ADMITS IT HAS NO CLUE', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'fed-admits-no-clue', '', '', '2017-09-30 08:13:58', '2017-09-30 13:13:58', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10147', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(10148, 1, '2017-09-30 08:00:35', '2017-09-30 13:00:35', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMy PREMIUM SERVICE AUTUMN/FALL PROMOTION ends this weekend, on Sunday 1st October at the market open 5PM EST (New York time) to be precise. So, if you want to get on board and get some $$$ in line for Christmas and beyond go to my website and subscribe. <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThe outstanding items from last week remain outstanding items this week.\r\n\r\nThey are…\r\n\r\nI still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video.\r\n\r\nMy EA’s (Expert Advisors - Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding.\r\n\r\nNot that I need to offer up excuses, but I started cleaning my computer files. I thought that I had all three Macs linked, but… apparently not. My trading computer that drives my screens is purpose built but runs on MSFT software for the brokers and so getting this stuff across and into a library was a little tedious. Those of you who I have interacted with know that I am a trader and NOT a computer whizz kid or geek.\r\n\r\nI recently re-connected with my old neighbour in Dublin, who can run rings around the best of folk on machines, software limits, apps etc. At the best of times, it’s another bloody language to me.\r\n\r\nFrom last week, the word of the week was….\r\n\r\n<strong>“PATIENCE”</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective I banked $$$ and pips but what a struggle. I am carrying CORE POSITIONS now with negative positions and I am patiently waiting for the markets to re-set.\r\n\r\nI will cover the following in more detail later but the GERMAN and NEW ZEALAND ELECTION RESULTS, STEPHEN POLOZ (BOC), JANET YELLEN and “FLIP-FLOPPER” MARK CARNEY to name but a few were all screwing with me.\r\n\r\nI was basically badly positioned for the events but looking down from a MACRO level with my FUNDAMENTALS in place, I feel I am correctly pointed.\r\n\r\nI was trying to be patient and get myself re-positioned to be ready to take advantage moving forward. I am getting there bit by bit with my CORE POSITIONS adjustments have been made and additions are now in place.\r\n\r\nI think back in 2013 I wrote an entire section in the blog about trading with patience is one of the hardest things to do. The need to believe that you must be trading every day, can be overwhelming when in fact cash is a position and to be sidelined for 24-48 hours is not a bad thing to let the markets re-set.\r\n\r\nIt is hard at times because there are other factors hanging over the markets such as NORTH KOREA, the TRUMP TAX PLAN and BREXIT the re-setting takes a little longer as positions are skewed. Also with last week being both a month and quarter end it was quite a cocktail.\r\n\r\nWith some degree of PATIENCE having been applied I am now ready for the final quarter of 2017.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: THE GERMAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS and THE CATALONIA ISSUE.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit. The press never saw that coming. The “Far Right” now have a good number of seats in parliament and poor old Angela Merkel has her work cut out forming a government excluding the “AfD” party.\r\nAmericans point fingers at TRUMP with 48% or whatever it was of the turnout and he occupies the White House. Merkel only received 32% of the popular vote. I am finding it very hard in the west to recall the last government that was in power based upon being more than 50% of the popular vote.\r\n\r\nAnyways back to the point…\r\n\r\nThe election outcome leaves a bitter taste in the mouth of many “jotter blotters” in Brussels as their gravy train of expenses, potted plants, Chateauneuf-du-Pape on Friday’s and lavish pensions may be coming to an end as there are pledges to manage costs… yeah right, my arse!!\r\n\r\nOn that point, I read with interest but absolutely ZERO SURPRISE that EU BREXIT negotiator Michel Barnier, so far has racked up travel expenses to the tune of €47,417.60 since October 1st, 2016. This will be a drop in the ocean when all is said and done. The amount of €€€€ wasted in the EUROPEAN UNION is massive. This bill no matter what it ends up being when added to all the other BREXIT BILLS created will be swept under the carpet as the EU will say it was covered by the UK in their divorce fees. It will be €millions.\r\n\r\nThese; pen pushing, jotter blotters in Brussels know how to spend money… it’s all billable.\r\n\r\nBack to the EUR…\r\n\r\nThe single currency was kicked back from its breakout move by the FOMC the previous week and just as it was starting to breathe again the German Election result kicked it hard in the samosas and from my perspective it looks constructive to re-test lower support levels moving forward.\r\n\r\nAt the time of writing this blog, I freely admit to being a little confused. Is the Catalan vote on or off?\r\n\r\nThe independence vote is creating a constitutional crisis with government in Madrid saying its illegal. The 8 million people or thereabouts who live in North Eastern Spain have wanted independence for some time…in fact quite some time. Courts have already brandished the vote illegal should it go ahead. The government has seized ballot papers and locked polling booths. It’s all very unclear to me what is happening.\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective, obviously, the Catalan vote / issue has the potential to be very EUR negative.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: STEPHEN POLOZ SPEECH IN ST. JOHNS.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF.\r\n\r\nI was NOT alone being wrong footed on this speech. Hindsight is a beautiful thing.\r\n\r\nThe previous rate hikes got so much bang for their buck with a movement of about $0.15cents for a combined increase of 0.50%, the BOC is probably on PROZAC worried about the markets getting carried away with another hike on the cards.\r\n\r\nPoloz reeled everyone back in. “No predetermined path for rates” that\'s a great line. Bottom line, I still see the data from Canada being good and therefore it is inevitable that they will raise rates again this year.\r\n\r\nDare I mention my conspiracy theory once again? I reckon they all go (FED, BOE, ECB and BOC) on the same day. This would have the effect of stopping mad swings day after day in December as Central Banks adjust their policies.\r\n\r\nThen again, from a trading perspective its better if they go one at a time. If you want to trade each event separately there is a choice and a better opportunity to make $$$ as you would be better focused.\r\n\r\nAnyway…\r\n\r\nI had to adjust trades and take losses on the back of the Poloz speech. I am now back and ready to face the BOC and Poloz head on!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>NZD: RBNZ RATE STATEMENT, CASH RATE and THE GENERAL ELECTION</u>.\r\n\r\nIt’s another WTF!\r\n\r\nI am going to show my age here and some of you may need to google this but Grant “aka Frank” Spencer temporary Governor of the RBNZ, now in charge of the keys to Wheeler’s drinks cabinet for the chaps, announced that New Zealand interest rates would remain accommodative for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nI expected the Kiwi to drop faster than a lead balloon. I was ready, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD on the news not really much happened at all. Not really a flicker… bugger.\r\n\r\nThe Election is still taking its toll. Another weak coalition government needs to be formed. This will take some time by all accounts. PATIENCE with the NZD will be required it will flip-flop around in my opinion between 0.7150 to 0.7250 until we get a resolution.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: CARNEY’S SPEECHES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nThere is nothing much new that I can add to what I have said before about Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nHe has given poor forward guidance over the years since arriving from the BOC replacing Merve “The Swerve” King as BOE Governor. He is a flip flopper, which, in general terms creates market instability the one core part of his job description he is employed to avoid.\r\n\r\nAt times, under the immense pressure of the job (and who would want it!), acts like a modern-day Pontius Pilate. It would not surprise me at a future BOE press conference or Parliamentary Committee hearing if we saw him behind his desk or podium with a basin of water and a hand towel.\r\n\r\nI think Carney has to go through with a one and done rate hike in the UK before the end of 2017. This of course does NOT mean he will despite all the rhetoric around the last interest rate statement and the 3.0% inflation level in the UK.\r\n\r\nCarney has the problem, Kuroda (BOJ), Draghi (ECB) and Janet Yellen at the Fed wished they had… inflation. Carney is caught between the devil and deep blue sea. The accountants (jotter blotters) have squeezed his balls so tight he has bent the knee and yielded to a potential / probable rate hike.\r\n\r\nHis latest speeches have taken the usual path: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The BOE is not the savior of BREXIT.</li>\r\n 	<li>Worried about reckless lending as inflation bites and wages lag.</li>\r\n 	<li>Household debt is concerning, “short term damage… next 2-3 years!”</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe focus by many twitter feeds and analysts last Friday was based on the UK GDP data.  From my perspective given BREXIT and its potential effects on the City of London in particular, the UK Current Account data was more important. Although 90 days backward looking, it highlights the currency demand, income flows, values of imports and exports and basic banking transfers over the previous 90 days.\r\n\r\nWhy is it important to me?\r\n\r\nWith the banking industry and its supporting networks undergoing moves away from the UK as the BREXIT timetable moves forward, the flows will start to dry up causing an imbalance that the BOE must react to.\r\n\r\nThis quarter the forecasted number was:\r\n\r\nMinus £15.8 Billion the actual number was Minus £23.2 Billion.\r\n\r\nI believe a trend of misses will not start to form as banks and related institutions start the shift to mainland Europe and Ireland.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN in or OUT? &amp; HER COMMENTS ABOUT INFLATION.</u>\r\n\r\nThis story will develop over the weekend but as we all know Janet Yellen’s tenure as FED CHAIR ends in February 2018. The debate over whether she stays on or ends had fueled much speculation over recent weeks and months.\r\n\r\nLast Friday it was announced or probably leaked that THE DONALD and his Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin interviewed former FED governor Kevin Warsh about replacing Yellen.\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThis follows on the back of her comments she disclosed last Tuesday during her speech to the National association for Business Economics. Yellen admitted that she doesn’t understand inflation, control of which is the FED’s number one responsibility. Apparently, all the FED’s working models on inflation are wrong.\r\n\r\nFFS…\r\n\r\nWhy didn’t she just resign on the spot?\r\n\r\nThis sort of thing beggar’s belief.\r\n\r\nIs everything about the U.S. just loud voices, bullshit and total bollocks?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10106\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017-1024x805.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"805\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10107\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017-1024x848.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"848\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Not a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:  </u></strong><u>MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMI’s.</u>\r\n\r\nYikes; that was quick month!\r\n\r\nHere we go again with the PMI data. Last month all three were above the 50 line which signifies expansion. The one in danger of slipping below 50 is Construction PMI which last time around stood at 51.1. Should this fall below the dreaded 50 it will in my opinion place the proposed BOE interest rate hike due probably in November on hold.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not I just cannot see the BOE raising rates in the environment that a sub 50 number would create.\r\n\r\nI am expecting a miss from Construction and Manufacturing PMI’s but a beat from the Services PMi.\r\n\r\nThe UK is going through a change and from my buddies on the ground (not literally), it is not being discussed at high level and to a large extent being swept under the carpet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, RETAIL SALES &amp; TRADE BALANCE.</u>\r\n\r\nIt is a big week for the AUD it rejected hard from 0.8000, mostly on the back of comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nDr. Lowe basically said that the Central Bank is not rushing to change direction of monetary policy just because a lot of other Central Banks are choosing to do so. Therefore, I cannot see the Cash Rate being moved from 1.5%.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales last month came in flat at 0.0%. Anything better which I assume we should see this time around will be a beat and be AUD positive.\r\n\r\nTrade Balance is sticky. This number in my opinion could go either way and the data will tell us whether the AUD spikes or continues to drift lower.\r\n\r\nAll three announcements are market movers. Trade Balance and Retail Sales are released at the same time Wednesday just to ensure we have ADVIL on hand!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nSo, after last week’s GDP was a bit soft, I am looking for strong data to support my CORE CAD TRADE POSITION, which for now looks sick. Patience is being applied in huge volume.\r\n\r\nLast month the jobs data disappointed because of the mix between part and full-time positions. I am thinking that it may be more of the same as we start the run up to Thanksgiving and Christmas festivities. Although, I must point out after what is deemed a poor or mediocre number one month from Canada the next month is usually a blowout.\r\n\r\nThis is truly what makes trading currencies such fun!!\r\n\r\nThe Trade Balance number is a sticky one. Last time being CAD$ -3.0 Billion. Trying to obtain very recent up to date data to give me a hint here has proved virtually impossible. More ADVIL required for this one!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: ADP, NON-FARM PAYROLLS and AVERAGE HOURLIES</u>.\r\n\r\nFirst off.\r\n\r\nDo NOT get suckered in to trades based off the ADP numbers when planning your NFP day. The correlation between ADP data on a Wednesday from the private sector and the government data on a Friday has not seen any correlation of late. So, if you want to do a Robert Palmer, “Looking for Clues” there will probably be feck all in expecting NFP to follow ADP numbers.\r\n\r\nI must say this…\r\n\r\nWho give a f**k anyways? The Fed are raising rates come hell or high water, I for one will probably NOT trade NFP, it is a lottery and as an indicator for the FED forget it… that decision has been made. Plus, it looks like Yellen is NOT going to be around to pick up any pieces anyhow.\r\n\r\nI do not think NFP has any real importance this week. I could be proved wrong but I really do feel that the FED are raising no matter what.\r\n\r\nAs for the actual numbers; ADP last month was 237,000 and NFP was 156,000. If NFP keeps roughly to the last 12 month monthly average, the markets should not go too wild.\r\n\r\nThere should be an acceptance in the markets about the perceived FED policy… what am I saying!!\r\n\r\nObviously, the average hourly rate needs to remain positive and a jump of 0.1% would keep the markets happy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nFINAL WEEK THIS MONTH:         +302 pips\r\nMONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2017:  +1,175 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,506 net pips\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.1.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.3: USD - SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u><u>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS &amp; IDEAS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nShould you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription that those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nFrom time to time I offer subscription promotions. These can be viewed under the tab FX PROMOTIONS at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>NOTE: There is a promotion in place right now and it expires Sunday 1st October at 5PM EST!</strong>\r\n\r\nI show below an interesting excel spreadsheet based around my PREMIUM SERVICE monthly subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month. I hope that you find this interesting.\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917-912x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #253 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n1st October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'FED ADMITS IT HAS NO CLUE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10147-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-09-30 08:00:35', '2017-09-30 13:00:35', '', 10147, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10147-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(10149, 1, '2017-09-30 08:02:07', '2017-09-30 13:02:07', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMy PREMIUM SERVICE AUTUMN/FALL PROMOTION ends this weekend, on Sunday 1st October at the market open 5PM EST (New York time) to be precise. So, if you want to get on board and get some $$$ in line for Christmas and beyond go to my website and subscribe. <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThe outstanding items from last week remain outstanding items this week.\r\n\r\nThey are…\r\n\r\nI still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video.\r\n\r\nMy EA’s (Expert Advisors - Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding.\r\n\r\nNot that I need to offer up excuses, but I started cleaning my computer files. I thought that I had all three Macs linked, but… apparently not. My trading computer that drives my screens is purpose built but runs on MSFT software for the brokers and so getting this stuff across and into a library was a little tedious. Those of you who I have interacted with know that I am a trader and NOT a computer whizz kid or geek.\r\n\r\nI recently re-connected with my old neighbour in Dublin, who can run rings around the best of folk on machines, software limits, apps etc. At the best of times, it’s another bloody language to me.\r\n\r\nFrom last week, the word of the week was….\r\n\r\n<strong>“PATIENCE”</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective I banked $$$ and pips but what a struggle. I am carrying CORE POSITIONS now with negative positions and I am patiently waiting for the markets to re-set.\r\n\r\nI will cover the following in more detail later but the GERMAN and NEW ZEALAND ELECTION RESULTS, STEPHEN POLOZ (BOC), JANET YELLEN and “FLIP-FLOPPER” MARK CARNEY to name but a few were all screwing with me.\r\n\r\nI was basically badly positioned for the events but looking down from a MACRO level with my FUNDAMENTALS in place, I feel I am correctly pointed.\r\n\r\nI was trying to be patient and get myself re-positioned to be ready to take advantage moving forward. I am getting there bit by bit with my CORE POSITIONS adjustments have been made and additions are now in place.\r\n\r\nI think back in 2013 I wrote an entire section in the blog about trading with patience is one of the hardest things to do. The need to believe that you must be trading every day, can be overwhelming when in fact cash is a position and to be sidelined for 24-48 hours is not a bad thing to let the markets re-set.\r\n\r\nIt is hard at times because there are other factors hanging over the markets such as NORTH KOREA, the TRUMP TAX PLAN and BREXIT the re-setting takes a little longer as positions are skewed. Also with last week being both a month and quarter end it was quite a cocktail.\r\n\r\nWith some degree of PATIENCE having been applied I am now ready for the final quarter of 2017.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nIn no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: THE GERMAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS and THE CATALONIA ISSUE.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit. The press never saw that coming. The “Far Right” now have a good number of seats in parliament and poor old Angela Merkel has her work cut out forming a government excluding the “AfD” party.\r\nAmericans point fingers at TRUMP with 48% or whatever it was of the turnout and he occupies the White House. Merkel only received 32% of the popular vote. I am finding it very hard in the west to recall the last government that was in power based upon being more than 50% of the popular vote.\r\n\r\nAnyways back to the point…\r\n\r\nThe election outcome leaves a bitter taste in the mouth of many “jotter blotters” in Brussels as their gravy train of expenses, potted plants, Chateauneuf-du-Pape on Friday’s and lavish pensions may be coming to an end as there are pledges to manage costs… yeah right, my arse!!\r\n\r\nOn that point, I read with interest but absolutely ZERO SURPRISE that EU BREXIT negotiator Michel Barnier, so far has racked up travel expenses to the tune of €47,417.60 since October 1st, 2016. This will be a drop in the ocean when all is said and done. The amount of €€€€ wasted in the EUROPEAN UNION is massive. This bill no matter what it ends up being when added to all the other BREXIT BILLS created will be swept under the carpet as the EU will say it was covered by the UK in their divorce fees. It will be €millions.\r\n\r\nThese; pen pushing, jotter blotters in Brussels know how to spend money… it’s all billable.\r\n\r\nBack to the EUR…\r\n\r\nThe single currency was kicked back from its breakout move by the FOMC the previous week and just as it was starting to breathe again the German Election result kicked it hard in the samosas and from my perspective it looks constructive to re-test lower support levels moving forward.\r\n\r\nAt the time of writing this blog, I freely admit to being a little confused. Is the Catalan vote on or off?\r\n\r\nThe independence vote is creating a constitutional crisis with government in Madrid saying its illegal. The 8 million people or thereabouts who live in North Eastern Spain have wanted independence for some time…in fact quite some time. Courts have already brandished the vote illegal should it go ahead. The government has seized ballot papers and locked polling booths. It’s all very unclear to me what is happening.\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective, obviously, the Catalan vote / issue has the potential to be very EUR negative.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: STEPHEN POLOZ SPEECH IN ST. JOHNS.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF.\r\n\r\nI was NOT alone being wrong footed on this speech. Hindsight is a beautiful thing.\r\n\r\nThe previous rate hikes got so much bang for their buck with a movement of about $0.15cents for a combined increase of 0.50%, the BOC is probably on PROZAC worried about the markets getting carried away with another hike on the cards.\r\n\r\nPoloz reeled everyone back in. “No predetermined path for rates” that\'s a great line. Bottom line, I still see the data from Canada being good and therefore it is inevitable that they will raise rates again this year.\r\n\r\nDare I mention my conspiracy theory once again? I reckon they all go (FED, BOE, ECB and BOC) on the same day. This would have the effect of stopping mad swings day after day in December as Central Banks adjust their policies.\r\n\r\nThen again, from a trading perspective its better if they go one at a time. If you want to trade each event separately there is a choice and a better opportunity to make $$$ as you would be better focused.\r\n\r\nAnyway…\r\n\r\nI had to adjust trades and take losses on the back of the Poloz speech. I am now back and ready to face the BOC and Poloz head on!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>NZD: RBNZ RATE STATEMENT, CASH RATE and THE GENERAL ELECTION</u>.\r\n\r\nIt’s another WTF!\r\n\r\nI am going to show my age here and some of you may need to google this but Grant “aka Frank” Spencer temporary Governor of the RBNZ, now in charge of the keys to Wheeler’s drinks cabinet for the chaps, announced that New Zealand interest rates would remain accommodative for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nI expected the Kiwi to drop faster than a lead balloon. I was ready, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD on the news not really much happened at all. Not really a flicker… bugger.\r\n\r\nThe Election is still taking its toll. Another weak coalition government needs to be formed. This will take some time by all accounts. PATIENCE with the NZD will be required it will flip-flop around in my opinion between 0.7150 to 0.7250 until we get a resolution.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: CARNEY’S SPEECHES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nThere is nothing much new that I can add to what I have said before about Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nHe has given poor forward guidance over the years since arriving from the BOC replacing Merve “The Swerve” King as BOE Governor. He is a flip flopper, which, in general terms creates market instability the one core part of his job description he is employed to avoid.\r\n\r\nAt times, under the immense pressure of the job (and who would want it!), acts like a modern-day Pontius Pilate. It would not surprise me at a future BOE press conference or Parliamentary Committee hearing if we saw him behind his desk or podium with a basin of water and a hand towel.\r\n\r\nI think Carney has to go through with a one and done rate hike in the UK before the end of 2017. This of course does NOT mean he will despite all the rhetoric around the last interest rate statement and the 3.0% inflation level in the UK.\r\n\r\nCarney has the problem, Kuroda (BOJ), Draghi (ECB) and Janet Yellen at the Fed wished they had… inflation. Carney is caught between the devil and deep blue sea. The accountants (jotter blotters) have squeezed his balls so tight he has bent the knee and yielded to a potential / probable rate hike.\r\n\r\nHis latest speeches have taken the usual path: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The BOE is not the savior of BREXIT.</li>\r\n 	<li>Worried about reckless lending as inflation bites and wages lag.</li>\r\n 	<li>Household debt is concerning, “short term damage… next 2-3 years!”</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe focus by many twitter feeds and analysts last Friday was based on the UK GDP data.  From my perspective given BREXIT and its potential effects on the City of London in particular, the UK Current Account data was more important. Although 90 days backward looking, it highlights the currency demand, income flows, values of imports and exports and basic banking transfers over the previous 90 days.\r\n\r\nWhy is it important to me?\r\n\r\nWith the banking industry and its supporting networks undergoing moves away from the UK as the BREXIT timetable moves forward, the flows will start to dry up causing an imbalance that the BOE must react to.\r\n\r\nThis quarter the forecasted number was:\r\n\r\nMinus £15.8 Billion the actual number was Minus £23.2 Billion.\r\n\r\nI believe a trend of misses will not start to form as banks and related institutions start the shift to mainland Europe and Ireland.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN in or OUT? &amp; HER COMMENTS ABOUT INFLATION.</u>\r\n\r\nThis story will develop over the weekend but as we all know Janet Yellen’s tenure as FED CHAIR ends in February 2018. The debate over whether she stays on or ends had fueled much speculation over recent weeks and months.\r\n\r\nLast Friday it was announced or probably leaked that THE DONALD and his Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin interviewed former FED governor Kevin Warsh about replacing Yellen.\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThis follows on the back of her comments she disclosed last Tuesday during her speech to the National association for Business Economics. Yellen admitted that she doesn’t understand inflation, control of which is the FED’s number one responsibility. Apparently, all the FED’s working models on inflation are wrong.\r\n\r\nFFS…\r\n\r\nWhy didn’t she just resign on the spot?\r\n\r\nThis sort of thing beggar’s belief.\r\n\r\nIs everything about the U.S. just loud voices, bullshit and total bollocks?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10106\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017-1024x805.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"805\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10107\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017-1024x848.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"848\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:  </u></strong><u>MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMI’s.</u>\r\n\r\nYikes; that was quick month!\r\n\r\nHere we go again with the PMI data. Last month all three were above the 50 line which signifies expansion. The one in danger of slipping below 50 is Construction PMI which last time around stood at 51.1. Should this fall below the dreaded 50 it will in my opinion place the proposed BOE interest rate hike due probably in November on hold.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not I just cannot see the BOE raising rates in the environment that a sub 50 number would create.\r\n\r\nI am expecting a miss from Construction and Manufacturing PMI’s but a beat from the Services PMi.\r\n\r\nThe UK is going through a change and from my buddies on the ground (not literally), it is not being discussed at high level and to a large extent being swept under the carpet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, RETAIL SALES &amp; TRADE BALANCE.</u>\r\n\r\nIt is a big week for the AUD it rejected hard from 0.8000, mostly on the back of comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nDr. Lowe basically said that the Central Bank is not rushing to change direction of monetary policy just because a lot of other Central Banks are choosing to do so. Therefore, I cannot see the Cash Rate being moved from 1.5%.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales last month came in flat at 0.0%. Anything better which I assume we should see this time around will be a beat and be AUD positive.\r\n\r\nTrade Balance is sticky. This number in my opinion could go either way and the data will tell us whether the AUD spikes or continues to drift lower.\r\n\r\nAll three announcements are market movers. Trade Balance and Retail Sales are released at the same time Wednesday just to ensure we have ADVIL on hand!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nSo, after last week’s GDP was a bit soft, I am looking for strong data to support my CORE CAD TRADE POSITION, which for now looks sick. Patience is being applied in huge volume.\r\n\r\nLast month the jobs data disappointed because of the mix between part and full-time positions. I am thinking that it may be more of the same as we start the run up to Thanksgiving and Christmas festivities. Although, I must point out after what is deemed a poor or mediocre number one month from Canada the next month is usually a blowout.\r\n\r\nThis is truly what makes trading currencies such fun!!\r\n\r\nThe Trade Balance number is a sticky one. Last time being CAD$ -3.0 Billion. Trying to obtain very recent up to date data to give me a hint here has proved virtually impossible. More ADVIL required for this one!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: ADP, NON-FARM PAYROLLS and AVERAGE HOURLIES</u>.\r\n\r\nFirst off.\r\n\r\nDo NOT get suckered in to trades based off the ADP numbers when planning your NFP day. The correlation between ADP data on a Wednesday from the private sector and the government data on a Friday has not seen any correlation of late. So, if you want to do a Robert Palmer, “Looking for Clues” there will probably be feck all in expecting NFP to follow ADP numbers.\r\n\r\nI must say this…\r\n\r\nWho give a f**k anyways? The Fed are raising rates come hell or high water, I for one will probably NOT trade NFP, it is a lottery and as an indicator for the FED forget it… that decision has been made. Plus, it looks like Yellen is NOT going to be around to pick up any pieces anyhow.\r\n\r\nI do not think NFP has any real importance this week. I could be proved wrong but I really do feel that the FED are raising no matter what.\r\n\r\nAs for the actual numbers; ADP last month was 237,000 and NFP was 156,000. If NFP keeps roughly to the last 12 month monthly average, the markets should not go too wild.\r\n\r\nThere should be an acceptance in the markets about the perceived FED policy… what am I saying!!\r\n\r\nObviously, the average hourly rate needs to remain positive and a jump of 0.1% would keep the markets happy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nFINAL WEEK THIS MONTH:         +302 pips\r\nMONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2017:  +1,175 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,506 net pips\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<u></u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.1.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.3: USD - SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u><u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS &amp; IDEAS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nShould you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription that those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nFrom time to time I offer subscription promotions. These can be viewed under the tab FX PROMOTIONS at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>NOTE: There is a promotion in place right now and it expires Sunday 1st October at 5PM EST!</strong>\r\n\r\nI show below an interesting excel spreadsheet based around my PREMIUM SERVICE monthly subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month. I hope that you find this interesting.\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917-912x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #253 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n1st October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'FED ADMITS IT HAS NO CLUE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10147-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-09-30 08:02:07', '2017-09-30 13:02:07', '', 10147, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10147-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(10150, 1, '2017-09-30 08:13:58', '2017-09-30 13:13:58', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMy PREMIUM SERVICE AUTUMN/FALL PROMOTION ends this weekend, on Sunday 1st October at the market open 5PM EST (New York time) to be precise. So, if you want to get on board and get some $$$ in line for Christmas and beyond go to my website and subscribe. <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThe outstanding items from last week remain outstanding items this week.\r\n\r\nThey are…\r\n\r\nI still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video.\r\n\r\nMy EA’s (Expert Advisors - Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding.\r\n\r\nNot that I need to offer up excuses, but I started cleaning my computer files. I thought that I had all three Macs linked, but… apparently not. My trading computer that drives my screens is purpose built but runs on MSFT software for the brokers and so getting this stuff across and into a library was a little tedious. Those of you who I have interacted with know that I am a trader and NOT a computer whizz kid or geek.\r\n\r\nI recently re-connected with my old neighbour in Dublin, who can run rings around the best of folk on machines, software limits, apps etc. At the best of times, it’s another bloody language to me.\r\n\r\nFrom last week, the word of the week was….\r\n\r\n<strong>“PATIENCE”</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective I banked $$$ and pips but what a struggle. I am carrying CORE POSITIONS now with negative positions and I am patiently waiting for the markets to re-set.\r\n\r\nI will cover the following in more detail later but the GERMAN and NEW ZEALAND ELECTION RESULTS, STEPHEN POLOZ (BOC), JANET YELLEN and “FLIP-FLOPPER” MARK CARNEY to name but a few were all screwing with me.\r\n\r\nI was basically badly positioned for the events but looking down from a MACRO level with my FUNDAMENTALS in place, I feel I am correctly pointed.\r\n\r\nI was trying to be patient and get myself re-positioned to be ready to take advantage moving forward. I am getting there bit by bit with my CORE POSITIONS adjustments have been made and additions are now in place.\r\n\r\nI think back in 2013 I wrote an entire section in the blog about trading with patience is one of the hardest things to do. The need to believe that you must be trading every day, can be overwhelming when in fact cash is a position and to be sidelined for 24-48 hours is not a bad thing to let the markets re-set.\r\n\r\nIt is hard at times because there are other factors hanging over the markets such as NORTH KOREA, the TRUMP TAX PLAN and BREXIT the re-setting takes a little longer as positions are skewed. Also with last week being both a month and quarter end it was quite a cocktail.\r\n\r\nWith some degree of PATIENCE having been applied I am now ready for the final quarter of 2017.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nIn no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: THE GERMAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS and THE CATALONIA ISSUE.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit. The press never saw that coming. The “Far Right” now have a good number of seats in parliament and poor old Angela Merkel has her work cut out forming a government excluding the “AfD” party.\r\nAmericans point fingers at TRUMP with 48% or whatever it was of the turnout and he occupies the White House. Merkel only received 32% of the popular vote. I am finding it very hard in the west to recall the last government that was in power based upon being more than 50% of the popular vote.\r\n\r\nAnyways back to the point…\r\n\r\nThe election outcome leaves a bitter taste in the mouth of many “jotter blotters” in Brussels as their gravy train of expenses, potted plants, Chateauneuf-du-Pape on Friday’s and lavish pensions may be coming to an end as there are pledges to manage costs… yeah right, my arse!!\r\n\r\nOn that point, I read with interest but absolutely ZERO SURPRISE that EU BREXIT negotiator Michel Barnier, so far has racked up travel expenses to the tune of €47,417.60 since October 1st, 2016. This will be a drop in the ocean when all is said and done. The amount of €€€€ wasted in the EUROPEAN UNION is massive. This bill no matter what it ends up being when added to all the other BREXIT BILLS created will be swept under the carpet as the EU will say it was covered by the UK in their divorce fees. It will be €millions.\r\n\r\nThese; pen pushing, jotter blotters in Brussels know how to spend money… it’s all billable.\r\n\r\nBack to the EUR…\r\n\r\nThe single currency was kicked back from its breakout move by the FOMC the previous week and just as it was starting to breathe again the German Election result kicked it hard in the samosas and from my perspective it looks constructive to re-test lower support levels moving forward.\r\n\r\nAt the time of writing this blog, I freely admit to being a little confused. Is the Catalan vote on or off?\r\n\r\nThe independence vote is creating a constitutional crisis with government in Madrid saying its illegal. The 8 million people or thereabouts who live in North Eastern Spain have wanted independence for some time…in fact quite some time. Courts have already brandished the vote illegal should it go ahead. The government has seized ballot papers and locked polling booths. It’s all very unclear to me what is happening.\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective, obviously, the Catalan vote / issue has the potential to be very EUR negative.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: STEPHEN POLOZ SPEECH IN ST. JOHNS.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF.\r\n\r\nI was NOT alone being wrong footed on this speech. Hindsight is a beautiful thing.\r\n\r\nThe previous rate hikes got so much bang for their buck with a movement of about $0.15cents for a combined increase of 0.50%, the BOC is probably on PROZAC worried about the markets getting carried away with another hike on the cards.\r\n\r\nPoloz reeled everyone back in. “No predetermined path for rates” that\'s a great line. Bottom line, I still see the data from Canada being good and therefore it is inevitable that they will raise rates again this year.\r\n\r\nDare I mention my conspiracy theory once again? I reckon they all go (FED, BOE, ECB and BOC) on the same day. This would have the effect of stopping mad swings day after day in December as Central Banks adjust their policies.\r\n\r\nThen again, from a trading perspective its better if they go one at a time. If you want to trade each event separately there is a choice and a better opportunity to make $$$ as you would be better focused.\r\n\r\nAnyway…\r\n\r\nI had to adjust trades and take losses on the back of the Poloz speech. I am now back and ready to face the BOC and Poloz head on!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>NZD: RBNZ RATE STATEMENT, CASH RATE and THE GENERAL ELECTION</u>.\r\n\r\nIt’s another WTF!\r\n\r\nI am going to show my age here and some of you may need to google this but Grant “aka Frank” Spencer temporary Governor of the RBNZ, now in charge of the keys to Wheeler’s drinks cabinet for the chaps, announced that New Zealand interest rates would remain accommodative for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nI expected the Kiwi to drop faster than a lead balloon. I was ready, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD on the news not really much happened at all. Not really a flicker… bugger.\r\n\r\nThe Election is still taking its toll. Another weak coalition government needs to be formed. This will take some time by all accounts. PATIENCE with the NZD will be required it will flip-flop around in my opinion between 0.7150 to 0.7250 until we get a resolution.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: CARNEY’S SPEECHES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nThere is nothing much new that I can add to what I have said before about Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nHe has given poor forward guidance over the years since arriving from the BOC replacing Merve “The Swerve” King as BOE Governor. He is a flip flopper, which, in general terms creates market instability the one core part of his job description he is employed to avoid.\r\n\r\nAt times, under the immense pressure of the job (and who would want it!), acts like a modern-day Pontius Pilate. It would not surprise me at a future BOE press conference or Parliamentary Committee hearing if we saw him behind his desk or podium with a basin of water and a hand towel.\r\n\r\nI think Carney has to go through with a one and done rate hike in the UK before the end of 2017. This of course does NOT mean he will despite all the rhetoric around the last interest rate statement and the 3.0% inflation level in the UK.\r\n\r\nCarney has the problem, Kuroda (BOJ), Draghi (ECB) and Janet Yellen at the Fed wished they had… inflation. Carney is caught between the devil and deep blue sea. The accountants (jotter blotters) have squeezed his balls so tight he has bent the knee and yielded to a potential / probable rate hike.\r\n\r\nHis latest speeches have taken the usual path: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The BOE is not the savior of BREXIT.</li>\r\n 	<li>Worried about reckless lending as inflation bites and wages lag.</li>\r\n 	<li>Household debt is concerning, “short term damage… next 2-3 years!”</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe focus by many twitter feeds and analysts last Friday was based on the UK GDP data.  From my perspective given BREXIT and its potential effects on the City of London in particular, the UK Current Account data was more important. Although 90 days backward looking, it highlights the currency demand, income flows, values of imports and exports and basic banking transfers over the previous 90 days.\r\n\r\nWhy is it important to me?\r\n\r\nWith the banking industry and its supporting networks undergoing moves away from the UK as the BREXIT timetable moves forward, the flows will start to dry up causing an imbalance that the BOE must react to.\r\n\r\nThis quarter the forecasted number was:\r\n\r\nMinus £15.8 Billion the actual number was Minus £23.2 Billion.\r\n\r\nI believe a trend of misses will not start to form as banks and related institutions start the shift to mainland Europe and Ireland.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN in or OUT? &amp; HER COMMENTS ABOUT INFLATION.</u>\r\n\r\nThis story will develop over the weekend but as we all know Janet Yellen’s tenure as FED CHAIR ends in February 2018. The debate over whether she stays on or ends had fueled much speculation over recent weeks and months.\r\n\r\nLast Friday it was announced or probably leaked that THE DONALD and his Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin interviewed former FED governor Kevin Warsh about replacing Yellen.\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThis follows on the back of her comments she disclosed last Tuesday during her speech to the National association for Business Economics. Yellen admitted that she doesn’t understand inflation, control of which is the FED’s number one responsibility. Apparently, all the FED’s working models on inflation are wrong.\r\n\r\nFFS…\r\n\r\nWhy didn’t she just resign on the spot?\r\n\r\nThis sort of thing beggar’s belief.\r\n\r\nIs everything about the U.S. just loud voices, bullshit and total bollocks?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10106\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017-1024x805.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"805\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10107\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017-1024x848.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"848\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:  </u></strong><u>MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMI’s.</u>\r\n\r\nYikes; that was quick month!\r\n\r\nHere we go again with the PMI data. Last month all three were above the 50 line which signifies expansion. The one in danger of slipping below 50 is Construction PMI which last time around stood at 51.1. Should this fall below the dreaded 50 it will in my opinion place the proposed BOE interest rate hike due probably in November on hold.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not I just cannot see the BOE raising rates in the environment that a sub 50 number would create.\r\n\r\nI am expecting a miss from Construction and Manufacturing PMI’s but a beat from the Services PMi.\r\n\r\nThe UK is going through a change and from my buddies on the ground (not literally), it is not being discussed at high level and to a large extent being swept under the carpet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, RETAIL SALES &amp; TRADE BALANCE.</u>\r\n\r\nIt is a big week for the AUD it rejected hard from 0.8000, mostly on the back of comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nDr. Lowe basically said that the Central Bank is not rushing to change direction of monetary policy just because a lot of other Central Banks are choosing to do so. Therefore, I cannot see the Cash Rate being moved from 1.5%.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales last month came in flat at 0.0%. Anything better which I assume we should see this time around will be a beat and be AUD positive.\r\n\r\nTrade Balance is sticky. This number in my opinion could go either way and the data will tell us whether the AUD spikes or continues to drift lower.\r\n\r\nAll three announcements are market movers. Trade Balance and Retail Sales are released at the same time Wednesday just to ensure we have ADVIL on hand!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nSo, after last week’s GDP was a bit soft, I am looking for strong data to support my CORE CAD TRADE POSITION, which for now looks sick. Patience is being applied in huge volume.\r\n\r\nLast month the jobs data disappointed because of the mix between part and full-time positions. I am thinking that it may be more of the same as we start the run up to Thanksgiving and Christmas festivities. Although, I must point out after what is deemed a poor or mediocre number one month from Canada the next month is usually a blowout.\r\n\r\nThis is truly what makes trading currencies such fun!!\r\n\r\nThe Trade Balance number is a sticky one. Last time being CAD$ -3.0 Billion. Trying to obtain very recent up to date data to give me a hint here has proved virtually impossible. More ADVIL required for this one!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: ADP, NON-FARM PAYROLLS and AVERAGE HOURLIES</u>.\r\n\r\nFirst off.\r\n\r\nDo NOT get suckered in to trades based off the ADP numbers when planning your NFP day. The correlation between ADP data on a Wednesday from the private sector and the government data on a Friday has not seen any correlation of late. So, if you want to do a Robert Palmer, “Looking for Clues” there will probably be feck all in expecting NFP to follow ADP numbers.\r\n\r\nI must say this…\r\n\r\nWho give a f**k anyways? The Fed are raising rates come hell or high water, I for one will probably NOT trade NFP, it is a lottery and as an indicator for the FED forget it… that decision has been made. Plus, it looks like Yellen is NOT going to be around to pick up any pieces anyhow.\r\n\r\nI do not think NFP has any real importance this week. I could be proved wrong but I really do feel that the FED are raising no matter what.\r\n\r\nAs for the actual numbers; ADP last month was 237,000 and NFP was 156,000. If NFP keeps roughly to the last 12 month monthly average, the markets should not go too wild.\r\n\r\nThere should be an acceptance in the markets about the perceived FED policy… what am I saying!!\r\n\r\nObviously, the average hourly rate needs to remain positive and a jump of 0.1% would keep the markets happy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nFINAL WEEK THIS MONTH:         +302 pips\r\nMONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2017:  +1,175 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,506 net pips\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<u></u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.1.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.3: USD - SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u><u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS &amp; IDEAS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nShould you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription that those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nFrom time to time I offer subscription promotions. These can be viewed under the tab FX PROMOTIONS at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>NOTE: There is a promotion in place right now and it expires Sunday 1st October at 5PM EST!</strong>\r\n\r\nI show below an interesting excel spreadsheet based around my PREMIUM SERVICE monthly subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month. I hope that you find this interesting.\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917-912x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #253 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n1st October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'FED ADMITS IT HAS NO CLUE', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10147-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-09-30 08:13:58', '2017-09-30 13:13:58', '', 10147, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10147-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(10154, 1, '2017-10-07 08:26:24', '2017-10-07 13:26:24', '', 'DXY 08102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'dxy-08102017', '', '', '2017-10-07 09:41:37', '2017-10-07 14:41:37', '', 10171, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10155, 1, '2017-10-07 08:26:28', '2017-10-07 13:26:28', '', 'ECON DATA 08102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'econ-data-08102017', '', '', '2017-10-07 09:46:36', '2017-10-07 14:46:36', '', 10171, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10156, 1, '2017-10-07 08:26:31', '2017-10-07 13:26:31', '', 'TCHART 08102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'tchart-08102017', '', '', '2017-10-07 09:46:56', '2017-10-07 14:46:56', '', 10171, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10163, 1, '2017-10-07 08:27:03', '2017-10-07 13:27:03', '', 'SENTIMENT 08102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'sentiment-08102017', '', '', '2017-10-07 09:50:06', '2017-10-07 14:50:06', '', 10171, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-08102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10164, 1, '2017-10-07 08:28:45', '2017-10-07 13:28:45', '', 'AUDUSD D 08102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'audusd-d-08102017', '', '', '2017-10-07 09:47:36', '2017-10-07 14:47:36', '', 10171, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10165, 1, '2017-10-07 08:28:54', '2017-10-07 13:28:54', '', 'EURUSD D 08102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'eurusd-d-08102017', '', '', '2017-10-07 09:47:17', '2017-10-07 14:47:17', '', 10171, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10166, 1, '2017-10-07 08:28:57', '2017-10-07 13:28:57', '', 'GBPUSD D 08102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'gbpusd-d-08102017', '', '', '2017-10-07 09:47:26', '2017-10-07 14:47:26', '', 10171, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10167, 1, '2017-10-07 08:29:00', '2017-10-07 13:29:00', '', 'NZDUSD D 08102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nzdusd-d-08102017', '', '', '2017-10-07 09:47:46', '2017-10-07 14:47:46', '', 10171, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10168, 1, '2017-10-07 08:29:04', '2017-10-07 13:29:04', '', 'USDCAD D 08102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdcad-d-08102017', '', '', '2017-10-07 09:47:54', '2017-10-07 14:47:54', '', 10171, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10169, 1, '2017-10-07 08:29:07', '2017-10-07 13:29:07', '', 'USDCHF D 08102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdchf-d-08102017', '', '', '2017-10-07 09:48:02', '2017-10-07 14:48:02', '', 10171, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10170, 1, '2017-10-07 08:29:11', '2017-10-07 13:29:11', '', 'USDJPY D 08102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdjpy-d-08102017', '', '', '2017-10-07 09:48:13', '2017-10-07 14:48:13', '', 10171, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(10171, 1, '2017-10-07 09:53:44', '2017-10-07 14:53:44', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a lot to talk about last week, it is difficult to know exactly where to focus first.  However, that is for a little later in the blog.\r\n\r\nThe USD got its mojo back last week in some style. I am still struggling to find reasons to be long the USD. Of late data has started to be the right side of “mixed” to support a move higher in the DXY, the PMi data was good. In addition, the recent FED speak has been very HAWKISH in tone. See the chart below (The chart does contain a few additional thoughts).\r\n\r\nOverall though I think that maybe it\'s the fact that the market is starting to believe that regardless “of whatever”, Yellen is leaving her position as FED CHAIR next February with another rate hike in her purse?\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10154\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017-1024x497.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"497\" /></a>\r\n\r\nHowever, this is my piece du résistance on the matter of recent USD (DXY) strength.\r\n\r\nI have a thought process along these lines….\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The FED is raising rates come what may.</li>\r\n 	<li>The BOE has real dilemmas to face.Theresa May’s longevity as Prime Minister. She could be removed as Tory leader before I complete this blog!\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are pretty much a shambles. The “No Deal” scenario is openly discussed more and more. If May is “kicked out” another timeline vacuum ensues and this results in additional pressure on the exit deadline.\r\n\r\nThe recent PMi data was basically poor…well really CRAP. The UK economy is declining and it will only get worse before it stands a chance of getting better.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not. I just think it\'s a suicide mission on the UK economy to raise rates with so much uncertainty.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB governing council are basically crapping the bed about tapering and a timetable announcement of returning to an interest rate normalization policy. The latest meeting minutes included commentary like:“HIGHLY ACCOMODATIVE UNDER ALL SCENARIOS”\r\n“SUBSTANTIAL STIMULUS STILL NEEDED”\r\n“CONCERNS ABOUT CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND EURO RISE” “MUST BE MINDFUL OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS ON FUTURE POLICY”\r\n\r\nI would define this as not quite sure and uncertainty!</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA was playing stick. Not looking to move away from being accommodative / supportive. Then like a “bolt from the blue” out comes RBA board member Ian Harper who quipped that if the Australian was to worsen the RBA has NOT ruled out an interest rate cut.Well, in all honesty. That is normal. It’s what a Central bank does in its normal course of day-to-day business. However it is usually done on a nod and a wink basis, not in font size 72 to the media… interesting. This comment came after two bloody awful months of Retail Sales data.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ has recently stated that it is remaining accommodative for an extended period.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC, Stephen Poloz is being cagey on what the BOC will do next after two recent rate hikes. The recent run of data has been disappointing. Of all the Central Banks except the Fed I still think that the BOC will raise rates if only to curb house prices and personal debt borrowing in Canada.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB and BOJ remain unchanged, interfering if required and accommodative for generations to come!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nSimply put, the divergence of Central Bank policy is once again at the forefront of institutions as they head into the year end. Many have books based upon the calendar year and from now through to the end of the year the big movers and shakers will be getting positioned.\r\n\r\nI am still a HUGE believer that Central Bank monetary policy is what primarily moves a currency. I know that within this framework there are a lot of idiosyncratic reasoning behind some moves and that certain personalities believe that policy is more about themselves rather than the country, but overall, in my opinion Central Bank monetary policy is primary.\r\n\r\nBasically, the FED is raising interest rates in the U.S. and the rest are in limbo at best.\r\n\r\nThere will be some very interesting trading conditions ahead but from the way I am looking at this, I need the dust to settle a little at least until I can see a clear shift in sentiment.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day we could just be retracing technically in the DXY and there is a bear flag formation setting up to move the DXY lower once again inside the longer-term trend.\r\n\r\nI am finding it difficult to get an absolute fix on what is driving the USD and then on top of everything we have the geopolitical tensions. North Korea could raise its head once again as we enter a period of the country’s anniversaries. I noted during the week that TRUMP mentioned that we are now in “The calm before the storm”. In addition, there is the Iran nuclear deal that TRUMP wants to amend or discard (not sure it’s hard to keep up). Both items have enough to reverse the USD move at the drop of a hat.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot to consider if you are not a market scalper or day trader.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI have finally recorded, changed, updated, re-recorded and finally placed a version of “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE” on my YouTube and Screencast channels.\r\n\r\nIt is essentially for new subscribers to add a little more to a subscription decision other than the written word on my website. I can also use it with some advertising as well. I am never happy with these things and I will no doubt tinker with it moving forward. A couple of segments were re-worked but perhaps still require a little more attention. There comes a point however, that if I do NOT just post it, it may never see the light of day.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nNot as much luck with my EA’s (Expert Advisors) this week. These algorithms have taken a serious backseat. This coming week is a slack week for economic data so I should get a chance to move forward all things being equal.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOn my God… there is so much I could write about, I will be selective and to the best of my ability concise (Please allow some tolerance I am from Liverpool and I love having this SOAPBOX option).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: PMi DATA, THE BOE, BREXIT and THERESA MAY’S MELTDOWN.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit… there is a book in that heading alone.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was as predicted in last week’s DRIVE THRU. Manufacturing and Construction to miss and Services to beat.\r\n\r\nOverall the numbers were poor. In fact, Construction came in at 48.1 against 51.1 which placed it in the contraction zone being less than 50.0. Manufacturing recorded 55.9 against 56.7 and Services showed 53.6 versus 53.2.\r\n\r\nFrankly, this data is backward looking but in all honesty in the name of sanity how can the BOE raise rates on these numbers? The numbers are more akin to RATE CUTTING not RATE HIKING.\r\n\r\nOld flip-flopper will be flip flopping in my opinion but he has an out on his side to save face. First, whilst I realise the BOE has a mandate on inflation, second and thirdly, it also must consider economic stability and prevent unnecessary market volatility through uncertainties.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is just a bloody disaster by all accounts. Politicians are fecking useless at negotiation. The UK have put up David Davies a politician against Michel Barnier a “pen pushing jotter blotter” from Brussels who has no accountability to a parliament or voters. Barnier couldn’t give a crap. It’s just a job. Mind you he doesn’t appear to have to do a damn thing anyway, the Brits can’t even get into the starting blocks, absolutely fecking useless numpties.\r\n\r\nThe UK is so bad they are even promoting a “NO DEAL” as the outcome. FFS what a load of crap.\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough…\r\n\r\nTheresa May at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester coughed and spluttered her way through her speech. She even took a cough drop from Chancellor Philip Hammond to try and stop her coughing spasm. At the same time, in the background letters that were obviously stuck to the stage set with double sided tape fell off. The slogan which originally read” Building a country that works for everyone” ended up being “Building a country that works or everyon”. If that weren’t enough she was handed a P45 by a gatecrasher (In the UK you receive this form when you leave your existing job).\r\n\r\nWhat’s the phrase “When shit happens…. shit happens!!”\r\n\r\nShe was praised by her team of her arse-lickers stating that she carried on brilliantly through adversity. However, in the real world the wagons are circling just like in an old John Wayne movie!\r\n\r\nThe speech was low on content. BREXIT has brought the party to a dysfunctional state. The cracks, that were covered in paper after the referendum are widening and the paper cover gone. The word disastrous is being used by many media outlets to describe Theresa May’s performance. Far from rallying the troops she has heightened the differences.\r\n\r\nHer position a Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party is hanging by a thread. I believe she will be booted out with little dignity much like the way Maggie was, whilst on a business trip in Paris. It would be better for Theresa May to walk sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nHaving said that what numpty wants the responsibility of BREXIT? Maybe it’s best to leave her in position, her career is fecked anyway and the BREXIT negotiation disaster can be pinned 100% to her legacy.\r\n\r\nHere’s a point to consider…\r\n\r\nThe UK has done feck all on getting the BREXIT negotiations started. Could there be another referendum with a new leader as the “Unsullied” in the shires think that the Tory government have really fecked up BREXIT so far.\r\n\r\nJust saying and thinking aloud…\r\n\r\nAnyway, enough of that….\r\n\r\nWith regards to the above, Carney in my opinion, has a decent case to say; “Hold on, no rate hike” (even with 3% inflation which he could argue is transitory like all Central bankers do!). I think that there is a chance he could get away with it without being categorized again as a flip flopper. This would apply especially if Theresa May were to resign or be ousted inside the next 2/3 weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: CATALAN, BRUSSELS and the GERMAN ELECTION FALLOUT.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nSome horrible scenes around Barcelona were televised last weekend with voters being dragged, hit, whacked with batons and generally beaten up over simply trying to vote. For those who thought that Spain had come a long way since the Francisco (General) Franco era… think again…. it would appear NOT. Quite a disgrace.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the silence from the rest of the EUROPEAN UNION, BRUSSELS etc. was a shocking display of how a united EUROPE could NEVER happen not in a million years. It was an embarrassment to those who call themselves leaders. The silence to me however spoke louder than any words that politicians could utter.\r\n\r\nWe enter another weekend of probable disturbances as Mariano Rajoy (Spanish Prime Minister) suspends the Catalan Parliament session next Monday in an attempt to block an independence vote taking place in the regional parliament.\r\n\r\nThe Catalan leaders are at a crossroads. Either move forward with declaring independence or try to negotiate a settlement to separate with Madrid.\r\n\r\nThis story has a great deal more left in it, with the King of Spain (Felipe) being accused of being a mouthpiece for the Spanish Government by the Catalan Regional President Carles Puigdemont.\r\n\r\nMeetings are scheduled moving forward through the weekend but I feel that this item has a long, long way still to run before its settled. Already businesses are moving Head Offices out of Catalonia in readiness for the split. It does not seem to have directly affected the single currency that much… weird to me.\r\n\r\nThis is very quiet news…\r\n\r\nAngela Merkel is still busy in the background working away trying to finalize a revised coalition government. This is taking some time and press releases are sparse which, to me indicate issues on agreements. With so many parties involved, the result will be a washed out version on what Merkel campaigned on. Coalitions = weak government.\r\n\r\nI do not believe that this has been factored in at all to the single currency exchange rate. It appears to be in suspended animation mode at the moment. I think that the larger traders are more concerned with the moves from the ECB than anything else.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, TRADE BALANCE, RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nThe RBA is standing firm and frankly looking around at what is going on, strong leadership from Philip Lowe is paying off.\r\n\r\nIn last week’s statement, he stated that high exchange rates would harm the economy and as usual the RBA provided subtle jawboning which has worked.\r\n\r\nDuring the week, the Trade Balance data was good (+0.99BAUD$ against a forecast of +0.88B AUD$), this was counterbalanced at the same time by poor Retail Sales at -0.6% it was worse than last month at -0.2% but the forecast was a +0.3%, the AUD was taken to the woodshed and spanked lower.\r\n\r\nOn Friday, last week RBA member Ian Harper leapt out of the masses to quip that the RBA would cut interest rates if the recent slowdown in the Australian economy worsens.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE and JOBS DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nMore poor data was seen from Canada in the guise of Trade balance numbers that missed expectations (-CAD$3.4B forecast –CAD$2.6B).\r\n\r\nThe USD/CAD was whacked up another cent from 1.2470 to 1.2570 on the back of that data.\r\n\r\nThe jobs data followed 24 hours later and it was a very slight miss at 10k jobs vis-à-vis 12k anticipated. The Unemployment Rate remained at 6.2%, a slight uptick to 6.3% was expected.\r\n\r\nBecause the U.S. data was so erroneous the market struggled to know what to do and how to react and this overrode any logical moves with the CAD directly. Therefore, it basically tread water after the initial market volatility.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: NON-FARM PAYROLLS and ISM PMI data.</u>\r\n\r\nThe number was a negative 33,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, which is less than pre-the GFC. Average hourly earnings rose to 0.5% from a previous 0.1% and forecasted 0.3%. This was strong.\r\n\r\nThe USD strengthened but did not go hell for leather to break the trading ranges.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s blog even before we were made aware that last week’s numbers would be hard to interpret, given the storms and hurricanes that basically battered the U.S. of late, I was already of the opinion that NFP helping the FED with policy was a non-event. As, in my opinion, the Fed have decided already.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10155\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017-1024x674.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"674\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10156\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017-1024x846.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"846\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10165\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10166\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10164\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10167\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10168\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10169\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10170\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from at all.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> PPi, RETAIL SALES and CPi INFLATION DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nI would never be-little the power of inflation data for an economy. It obviously takes on greater importance when the U.S. economy is involved, as this data represents such a vital barometer for sentiment moving forward. However, without wanting to sound as complacent and blasé as the markets are to data releases, I do think whilst these numbers are interesting to read from a trending perspective, from a FED viewpoint I do not think they are going to matter unless they miss by 5% or greater… something mind blowing off forecast is what I mean.\r\n\r\nThe FED has made its mind up vis-à-vis an interest rate move higher in December.\r\n\r\nThe FX market being a future pricing mechanism based primarily off Central Bank Monetary Policy will be baking this into pricing as we move closer to the December FED meeting on the 12th and 13th, with the announcement due on the 13th December 2017 at 2PM EST.\r\n\r\nBack to economic data…\r\n\r\nLast time around, everything was positive 0.2% - 0.4% except for Retail Sales which posted a poor -0.2% number.\r\n\r\nThis time the forecasts show basically an improvement across the board with Retail Sales expected at 1.5%. We are dealing with the ultimate consumer society in the world. The biggest economy in the world. The forecasts should be a piece of piss.\r\n\r\nAlways expected the unexpected.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a lot of data due this week and as such we will be captives to the movements in equities, securities and commodities.\r\n\r\nI do not think I would get much disagreement when I say almost since TRUMP was inaugurated the market has been more headline news driven that anything else.\r\n\r\nI think that I am alone with these thoughts as I do NOT find this market easy and I am struggling to get the reasoning behind moves and finding traction with direction and trade set ups is a little more difficult than usual.\r\n\r\nThis makes trading more of a gamble than a well thought out reasoned strategy or TRADE PLAN. For traders with more than a 60-minute trading horizon this brings a raft of issues into play that the scalpers of this world do not have to consider.\r\n\r\nWe have considerable heightened geopolitical news hovering around us with regards to “Little Rocket Man” and the Iran nuclear deal review.\r\n\r\nIt would very easy and glib to say just be careful trading this week. It would be accurate but a bit wishy-washy.\r\n\r\nThe USD weakened into the close last Friday, I see this as purely positioning as frankly no-one would really want to be heavy into being long the USD into the weekend with all the geopolitical risk being about.\r\n\r\nWe are in ranges at the moment that last week’s NFP could not break and whilst some individual pairs cut extremes (GBP/USD &amp; AUD/USD), the EUR/USD held above 1.1660 which, I think is significant.\r\n\r\nMore detail of my thoughts and ideas will appear for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers as I add back trade set ups at the start of this week’s trading through Monday / Tuesday.\r\n\r\nFrom a general perspective, a lot depends on the news.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the only logical guide to present here would be to trade smaller sized positions. I expect a chop fest with no real overall direction, although, I do think that the chances of the USD breaking much higher will be limited unless a significant break past the 94.00 (DXY) the 23.6% retracement of the TRUMP inauguration move. If we break through 94.00 then the 95.86 (38.2%) would be in view, but in my opinion unless TRUMP has some significant “wins” I think the DXY moves lower with the trend and the USD takes another hit.\r\n\r\nTherefore…\r\n\r\nPlay the waiting game to see the reaction on Monday after NFP has been digested thru all markets. Try and get a confirmation of the bigger move before pulling the trigger.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +481 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,987 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:\r\n</u>\r\nI added pips again last week but struggled to get to grips with the market moves and therefore decided the best policy was to stay sidelined. On the basis that last week contained NFP, which I hate trading anyway it was probably not a bad thing to observe and not participate.\r\n\r\nI am not one of these traders who literally explode if they are not very active on all occasions and frankly whilst when I first started trading I used to hate missing moves I am now much calmer and prefer to see moves confirmed first.\r\n\r\nI wrote in the introduction to this week’s blog that Central Divergence may be coming back as flavour of the month once again. Who knows…? I think half the time we spend our time trying to find reasons for moves in a dysfunctional market that simply have no explanation. All I do know is that moves are now almost always stretched beyond reason. Last Thursday’s prior to NFP was a case in point being a classic example.\r\n\r\nThe non-economic news last week heavily influenced the moves.\r\n\r\nTheresa May really has hit new lows. There is no credible alternative and in all honesty who would want the poisoned chalice of BREXIT, trying to complete a divorce from the EUROPEAN UNION with already 6 months of a tight timescale wasted because the wrong people are in the job. Add the recent poor economic data and the BOE into the mix. And we have uncertainty.\r\n\r\nI am now more bearish cable than I was just after the BREXIT referendum. Once Carney and his accountants at the BOE announced a change in policy to probably raise rates to counter inflation, my thought process was initially that we could perhaps see a series of hikes through 2018 as well. However, my change of heart vis-à-vis cable emanates from the recent data and Theresa May’s position as leader of the Conservative party. In my opinion adding all the negativity together there is a case building to cut interest rates further rather than hiking interest rates.\r\n\r\nThe EURO seems to be 100% in different to everything going on around it.  German Elections not much movement, riots and shameful violence by authorities on the streets of Barcelona nada… nothing. The EUR/USD has been stuck in about a 100-pip range.\r\n\r\nIt is a strange trading environment and I have to admit I cannot make sense out of it. Even the recent threat of a nuclear war had no effect. The VIX is below 10.\r\n\r\nI want to trade the USD to the long side, but, I have a nagging feeling that the DXY is simply flagging and my thoughts of Central Bank divergence whilst on the surface seem plausible, it could all be total bollocks and basically the DXY will resume lower and take out the recent lows.\r\n\r\nI have opinions and thoughts both sides of the market but on exactly what to do with the USD, I am just not that sure.\r\n\r\nI do however still believe that equities are ready to drop… I feel this is like the boy that cried wolf statement. I reckon if you go back through two years of blogs I have said this in about 60 of the 80 blogs published. Yet we have the most reluctant bull rally in modern day history.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nYou would have noticed that I hedged GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD ahead of the NFP into last weekend. This was a move to protect the existing trades but also buy me time. I haven’t hedged for over two years, but I feel that until I get my head around my TRADE PLAN it was best to hedge these two trades as they can run a long way very quickly.\r\n\r\nThe easy bit is done and both trades have triggered so basically now it’s all about working with a combined 500 pip loss and seeing what I can do to reduce it. These trades will be parked from my brain until the middle of the week at least I think.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nThe market has become a very strange beast to me of late.\r\n\r\nI like to know, or have a reasonably good idea why things happen, as things happen for a reason. The Forex market does have the same logic applied to it most of the time, even though with myself included traders will try to pin reasons to moves, when, sometimes the moves are just so off the board it would take in my opinion a very deranged person to work out the sense of the move at times.\r\n\r\nI wrote several weeks ago about a MARKET SHIFT. It never really got going. Most of it was based around Central Bank policy, which, apart from the BOC it looks like the remaining Central Banks apart from the FED, will have either cold feet on a move higher or, a watered-down version of their Monetary Policy update or a combination of both.\r\n\r\nI am constantly having to evaluate and re-evaluate my medium to longer-term views. I am still; Bullish the CAD currency despite the recent hiccups. Bearish the NZD and getting bearish the AUD at a great rate of knots. In the longer-term I want to be bullish the CHF.\r\n\r\nIn the interim, I am thinking about leaving the EUR and GBP alone. If someone were to hold a gun to my head and say I must trade one of these I would probably choose the GBP, but right now I am confused. Technically both currencies versus the USD still retain a constructive upward trend.\r\n\r\nCable looks good long from 1.2950 and the EU/USD from 1.1660. Technically these trades look to be a great RISK / REWARD opportunity but FUNDAMENTALLY I am not yet there!\r\n\r\nIf in doubt leave it out, is probably the best approach here unless of course I see a real conviction trade opportunity.\r\n\r\nIn the now...\r\n\r\nI think that commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD and MXN) are the way forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10163\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-08102017-785x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"785\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait a little and I will add back additional short USD/CAD trades and add NZD/CAD short trades as well.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 5 x live long AUD/NZD trades.\r\n\r\nI have also hedged a long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am looking to enter the NZD/USD on pullbacks. In addition, add back the EUR/NZD trade that I took profits on pre NFP day. Plus, to add NZD/CAD and NZD/JPY to my limit order set ups.\r\n\r\nIn addition, work my way out of the GBP/NZD hedged position.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE AUD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently I am in the process of building a position.\r\n\r\nI have live, 1 x AUD/JPY short, 1 x EUR/AUD long and like the GBP/NZD my GBP/AUD long trade was hedged given the uncertainties around the GBP following Theresa May’s conference speech and BREXIT shambles. My maximum loss on this trade is now 200 pips and given that the Monthly ATR is over 1,000 pips I am comfortable with this to manage.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Apart from working my way out of the GBP/AUD hedged position is to add on pullbacks AUD/USD short positions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10162\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-08102017-933x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"933\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10161\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-08102017-1024x779.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"779\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI hope that none of you have friends or families in FX Brokers but OMG they are bereft of ideas.\r\n\r\nI am trying out three new brokers on demo trades and I want one of them to eventually maintain my algorithmic (EA) trades.\r\n\r\nThey know that retail traders are disappearing as fast as turkeys with thanksgiving on the horizon, yet apart “FREEBIES” that we all know we pay for with poor rate spreads they seem to have no plan forward. I think these Russian white label deals have really screwed over the real brokers. It was OK when times were good but now they struggle.\r\n\r\nNot one of them wants to release numbers. There is a fear in doing so. My thought process leads me down a path that says that acquisitions will soon be order of the day to obtain efficiencies. When this happens, we will know that numbers are seriously declining.\r\n\r\nNo market news to report of other than at the year-end expect a huge push to try and covert clients. Remember… there is no such thing as a FREE LUNCH or CHARITABLE BROKER!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #150 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n8th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'UK RATE HIKE IN THE BALANCE?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'uk-rate-hike-balance', '', '', '2017-10-07 09:53:44', '2017-10-07 14:53:44', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10171', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(10173, 1, '2017-10-07 09:53:44', '2017-10-07 14:53:44', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a lot to talk about last week, it is difficult to know exactly where to focus first.  However, that is for a little later in the blog.\r\n\r\nThe USD got its mojo back last week in some style. I am still struggling to find reasons to be long the USD. Of late data has started to be the right side of “mixed” to support a move higher in the DXY, the PMi data was good. In addition, the recent FED speak has been very HAWKISH in tone. See the chart below (The chart does contain a few additional thoughts).\r\n\r\nOverall though I think that maybe it\'s the fact that the market is starting to believe that regardless “of whatever”, Yellen is leaving her position as FED CHAIR next February with another rate hike in her purse?\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10154\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017-1024x497.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"497\" /></a>\r\n\r\nHowever, this is my piece du résistance on the matter of recent USD (DXY) strength.\r\n\r\nI have a thought process along these lines….\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The FED is raising rates come what may.</li>\r\n 	<li>The BOE has real dilemmas to face.Theresa May’s longevity as Prime Minister. She could be removed as Tory leader before I complete this blog!\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are pretty much a shambles. The “No Deal” scenario is openly discussed more and more. If May is “kicked out” another timeline vacuum ensues and this results in additional pressure on the exit deadline.\r\n\r\nThe recent PMi data was basically poor…well really CRAP. The UK economy is declining and it will only get worse before it stands a chance of getting better.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not. I just think it\'s a suicide mission on the UK economy to raise rates with so much uncertainty.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB governing council are basically crapping the bed about tapering and a timetable announcement of returning to an interest rate normalization policy. The latest meeting minutes included commentary like:“HIGHLY ACCOMODATIVE UNDER ALL SCENARIOS”\r\n“SUBSTANTIAL STIMULUS STILL NEEDED”\r\n“CONCERNS ABOUT CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND EURO RISE” “MUST BE MINDFUL OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS ON FUTURE POLICY”\r\n\r\nI would define this as not quite sure and uncertainty!</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA was playing stick. Not looking to move away from being accommodative / supportive. Then like a “bolt from the blue” out comes RBA board member Ian Harper who quipped that if the Australian was to worsen the RBA has NOT ruled out an interest rate cut.Well, in all honesty. That is normal. It’s what a Central bank does in its normal course of day-to-day business. However it is usually done on a nod and a wink basis, not in font size 72 to the media… interesting. This comment came after two bloody awful months of Retail Sales data.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ has recently stated that it is remaining accommodative for an extended period.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC, Stephen Poloz is being cagey on what the BOC will do next after two recent rate hikes. The recent run of data has been disappointing. Of all the Central Banks except the Fed I still think that the BOC will raise rates if only to curb house prices and personal debt borrowing in Canada.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB and BOJ remain unchanged, interfering if required and accommodative for generations to come!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nSimply put, the divergence of Central Bank policy is once again at the forefront of institutions as they head into the year end. Many have books based upon the calendar year and from now through to the end of the year the big movers and shakers will be getting positioned.\r\n\r\nI am still a HUGE believer that Central Bank monetary policy is what primarily moves a currency. I know that within this framework there are a lot of idiosyncratic reasoning behind some moves and that certain personalities believe that policy is more about themselves rather than the country, but overall, in my opinion Central Bank monetary policy is primary.\r\n\r\nBasically, the FED is raising interest rates in the U.S. and the rest are in limbo at best.\r\n\r\nThere will be some very interesting trading conditions ahead but from the way I am looking at this, I need the dust to settle a little at least until I can see a clear shift in sentiment.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day we could just be retracing technically in the DXY and there is a bear flag formation setting up to move the DXY lower once again inside the longer-term trend.\r\n\r\nI am finding it difficult to get an absolute fix on what is driving the USD and then on top of everything we have the geopolitical tensions. North Korea could raise its head once again as we enter a period of the country’s anniversaries. I noted during the week that TRUMP mentioned that we are now in “The calm before the storm”. In addition, there is the Iran nuclear deal that TRUMP wants to amend or discard (not sure it’s hard to keep up). Both items have enough to reverse the USD move at the drop of a hat.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot to consider if you are not a market scalper or day trader.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI have finally recorded, changed, updated, re-recorded and finally placed a version of “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE” on my YouTube and Screencast channels.\r\n\r\nIt is essentially for new subscribers to add a little more to a subscription decision other than the written word on my website. I can also use it with some advertising as well. I am never happy with these things and I will no doubt tinker with it moving forward. A couple of segments were re-worked but perhaps still require a little more attention. There comes a point however, that if I do NOT just post it, it may never see the light of day.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nNot as much luck with my EA’s (Expert Advisors) this week. These algorithms have taken a serious backseat. This coming week is a slack week for economic data so I should get a chance to move forward all things being equal.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOn my God… there is so much I could write about, I will be selective and to the best of my ability concise (Please allow some tolerance I am from Liverpool and I love having this SOAPBOX option).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: PMi DATA, THE BOE, BREXIT and THERESA MAY’S MELTDOWN.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit… there is a book in that heading alone.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was as predicted in last week’s DRIVE THRU. Manufacturing and Construction to miss and Services to beat.\r\n\r\nOverall the numbers were poor. In fact, Construction came in at 48.1 against 51.1 which placed it in the contraction zone being less than 50.0. Manufacturing recorded 55.9 against 56.7 and Services showed 53.6 versus 53.2.\r\n\r\nFrankly, this data is backward looking but in all honesty in the name of sanity how can the BOE raise rates on these numbers? The numbers are more akin to RATE CUTTING not RATE HIKING.\r\n\r\nOld flip-flopper will be flip flopping in my opinion but he has an out on his side to save face. First, whilst I realise the BOE has a mandate on inflation, second and thirdly, it also must consider economic stability and prevent unnecessary market volatility through uncertainties.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is just a bloody disaster by all accounts. Politicians are fecking useless at negotiation. The UK have put up David Davies a politician against Michel Barnier a “pen pushing jotter blotter” from Brussels who has no accountability to a parliament or voters. Barnier couldn’t give a crap. It’s just a job. Mind you he doesn’t appear to have to do a damn thing anyway, the Brits can’t even get into the starting blocks, absolutely fecking useless numpties.\r\n\r\nThe UK is so bad they are even promoting a “NO DEAL” as the outcome. FFS what a load of crap.\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough…\r\n\r\nTheresa May at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester coughed and spluttered her way through her speech. She even took a cough drop from Chancellor Philip Hammond to try and stop her coughing spasm. At the same time, in the background letters that were obviously stuck to the stage set with double sided tape fell off. The slogan which originally read” Building a country that works for everyone” ended up being “Building a country that works or everyon”. If that weren’t enough she was handed a P45 by a gatecrasher (In the UK you receive this form when you leave your existing job).\r\n\r\nWhat’s the phrase “When shit happens…. shit happens!!”\r\n\r\nShe was praised by her team of her arse-lickers stating that she carried on brilliantly through adversity. However, in the real world the wagons are circling just like in an old John Wayne movie!\r\n\r\nThe speech was low on content. BREXIT has brought the party to a dysfunctional state. The cracks, that were covered in paper after the referendum are widening and the paper cover gone. The word disastrous is being used by many media outlets to describe Theresa May’s performance. Far from rallying the troops she has heightened the differences.\r\n\r\nHer position a Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party is hanging by a thread. I believe she will be booted out with little dignity much like the way Maggie was, whilst on a business trip in Paris. It would be better for Theresa May to walk sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nHaving said that what numpty wants the responsibility of BREXIT? Maybe it’s best to leave her in position, her career is fecked anyway and the BREXIT negotiation disaster can be pinned 100% to her legacy.\r\n\r\nHere’s a point to consider…\r\n\r\nThe UK has done feck all on getting the BREXIT negotiations started. Could there be another referendum with a new leader as the “Unsullied” in the shires think that the Tory government have really fecked up BREXIT so far.\r\n\r\nJust saying and thinking aloud…\r\n\r\nAnyway, enough of that….\r\n\r\nWith regards to the above, Carney in my opinion, has a decent case to say; “Hold on, no rate hike” (even with 3% inflation which he could argue is transitory like all Central bankers do!). I think that there is a chance he could get away with it without being categorized again as a flip flopper. This would apply especially if Theresa May were to resign or be ousted inside the next 2/3 weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: CATALAN, BRUSSELS and the GERMAN ELECTION FALLOUT.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nSome horrible scenes around Barcelona were televised last weekend with voters being dragged, hit, whacked with batons and generally beaten up over simply trying to vote. For those who thought that Spain had come a long way since the Francisco (General) Franco era… think again…. it would appear NOT. Quite a disgrace.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the silence from the rest of the EUROPEAN UNION, BRUSSELS etc. was a shocking display of how a united EUROPE could NEVER happen not in a million years. It was an embarrassment to those who call themselves leaders. The silence to me however spoke louder than any words that politicians could utter.\r\n\r\nWe enter another weekend of probable disturbances as Mariano Rajoy (Spanish Prime Minister) suspends the Catalan Parliament session next Monday in an attempt to block an independence vote taking place in the regional parliament.\r\n\r\nThe Catalan leaders are at a crossroads. Either move forward with declaring independence or try to negotiate a settlement to separate with Madrid.\r\n\r\nThis story has a great deal more left in it, with the King of Spain (Felipe) being accused of being a mouthpiece for the Spanish Government by the Catalan Regional President Carles Puigdemont.\r\n\r\nMeetings are scheduled moving forward through the weekend but I feel that this item has a long, long way still to run before its settled. Already businesses are moving Head Offices out of Catalonia in readiness for the split. It does not seem to have directly affected the single currency that much… weird to me.\r\n\r\nThis is very quiet news…\r\n\r\nAngela Merkel is still busy in the background working away trying to finalize a revised coalition government. This is taking some time and press releases are sparse which, to me indicate issues on agreements. With so many parties involved, the result will be a washed out version on what Merkel campaigned on. Coalitions = weak government.\r\n\r\nI do not believe that this has been factored in at all to the single currency exchange rate. It appears to be in suspended animation mode at the moment. I think that the larger traders are more concerned with the moves from the ECB than anything else.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, TRADE BALANCE, RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nThe RBA is standing firm and frankly looking around at what is going on, strong leadership from Philip Lowe is paying off.\r\n\r\nIn last week’s statement, he stated that high exchange rates would harm the economy and as usual the RBA provided subtle jawboning which has worked.\r\n\r\nDuring the week, the Trade Balance data was good (+0.99BAUD$ against a forecast of +0.88B AUD$), this was counterbalanced at the same time by poor Retail Sales at -0.6% it was worse than last month at -0.2% but the forecast was a +0.3%, the AUD was taken to the woodshed and spanked lower.\r\n\r\nOn Friday, last week RBA member Ian Harper leapt out of the masses to quip that the RBA would cut interest rates if the recent slowdown in the Australian economy worsens.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE and JOBS DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nMore poor data was seen from Canada in the guise of Trade balance numbers that missed expectations (-CAD$3.4B forecast –CAD$2.6B).\r\n\r\nThe USD/CAD was whacked up another cent from 1.2470 to 1.2570 on the back of that data.\r\n\r\nThe jobs data followed 24 hours later and it was a very slight miss at 10k jobs vis-à-vis 12k anticipated. The Unemployment Rate remained at 6.2%, a slight uptick to 6.3% was expected.\r\n\r\nBecause the U.S. data was so erroneous the market struggled to know what to do and how to react and this overrode any logical moves with the CAD directly. Therefore, it basically tread water after the initial market volatility.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: NON-FARM PAYROLLS and ISM PMI data.</u>\r\n\r\nThe number was a negative 33,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, which is less than pre-the GFC. Average hourly earnings rose to 0.5% from a previous 0.1% and forecasted 0.3%. This was strong.\r\n\r\nThe USD strengthened but did not go hell for leather to break the trading ranges.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s blog even before we were made aware that last week’s numbers would be hard to interpret, given the storms and hurricanes that basically battered the U.S. of late, I was already of the opinion that NFP helping the FED with policy was a non-event. As, in my opinion, the Fed have decided already.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10155\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017-1024x674.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"674\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10156\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017-1024x846.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"846\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10165\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10166\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10164\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10167\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10168\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10169\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10170\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from at all.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> PPi, RETAIL SALES and CPi INFLATION DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nI would never be-little the power of inflation data for an economy. It obviously takes on greater importance when the U.S. economy is involved, as this data represents such a vital barometer for sentiment moving forward. However, without wanting to sound as complacent and blasé as the markets are to data releases, I do think whilst these numbers are interesting to read from a trending perspective, from a FED viewpoint I do not think they are going to matter unless they miss by 5% or greater… something mind blowing off forecast is what I mean.\r\n\r\nThe FED has made its mind up vis-à-vis an interest rate move higher in December.\r\n\r\nThe FX market being a future pricing mechanism based primarily off Central Bank Monetary Policy will be baking this into pricing as we move closer to the December FED meeting on the 12th and 13th, with the announcement due on the 13th December 2017 at 2PM EST.\r\n\r\nBack to economic data…\r\n\r\nLast time around, everything was positive 0.2% - 0.4% except for Retail Sales which posted a poor -0.2% number.\r\n\r\nThis time the forecasts show basically an improvement across the board with Retail Sales expected at 1.5%. We are dealing with the ultimate consumer society in the world. The biggest economy in the world. The forecasts should be a piece of piss.\r\n\r\nAlways expected the unexpected.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a lot of data due this week and as such we will be captives to the movements in equities, securities and commodities.\r\n\r\nI do not think I would get much disagreement when I say almost since TRUMP was inaugurated the market has been more headline news driven that anything else.\r\n\r\nI think that I am alone with these thoughts as I do NOT find this market easy and I am struggling to get the reasoning behind moves and finding traction with direction and trade set ups is a little more difficult than usual.\r\n\r\nThis makes trading more of a gamble than a well thought out reasoned strategy or TRADE PLAN. For traders with more than a 60-minute trading horizon this brings a raft of issues into play that the scalpers of this world do not have to consider.\r\n\r\nWe have considerable heightened geopolitical news hovering around us with regards to “Little Rocket Man” and the Iran nuclear deal review.\r\n\r\nIt would very easy and glib to say just be careful trading this week. It would be accurate but a bit wishy-washy.\r\n\r\nThe USD weakened into the close last Friday, I see this as purely positioning as frankly no-one would really want to be heavy into being long the USD into the weekend with all the geopolitical risk being about.\r\n\r\nWe are in ranges at the moment that last week’s NFP could not break and whilst some individual pairs cut extremes (GBP/USD &amp; AUD/USD), the EUR/USD held above 1.1660 which, I think is significant.\r\n\r\nMore detail of my thoughts and ideas will appear for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers as I add back trade set ups at the start of this week’s trading through Monday / Tuesday.\r\n\r\nFrom a general perspective, a lot depends on the news.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the only logical guide to present here would be to trade smaller sized positions. I expect a chop fest with no real overall direction, although, I do think that the chances of the USD breaking much higher will be limited unless a significant break past the 94.00 (DXY) the 23.6% retracement of the TRUMP inauguration move. If we break through 94.00 then the 95.86 (38.2%) would be in view, but in my opinion unless TRUMP has some significant “wins” I think the DXY moves lower with the trend and the USD takes another hit.\r\n\r\nTherefore…\r\n\r\nPlay the waiting game to see the reaction on Monday after NFP has been digested thru all markets. Try and get a confirmation of the bigger move before pulling the trigger.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +481 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,987 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:\r\n</u>\r\nI added pips again last week but struggled to get to grips with the market moves and therefore decided the best policy was to stay sidelined. On the basis that last week contained NFP, which I hate trading anyway it was probably not a bad thing to observe and not participate.\r\n\r\nI am not one of these traders who literally explode if they are not very active on all occasions and frankly whilst when I first started trading I used to hate missing moves I am now much calmer and prefer to see moves confirmed first.\r\n\r\nI wrote in the introduction to this week’s blog that Central Divergence may be coming back as flavour of the month once again. Who knows…? I think half the time we spend our time trying to find reasons for moves in a dysfunctional market that simply have no explanation. All I do know is that moves are now almost always stretched beyond reason. Last Thursday’s prior to NFP was a case in point being a classic example.\r\n\r\nThe non-economic news last week heavily influenced the moves.\r\n\r\nTheresa May really has hit new lows. There is no credible alternative and in all honesty who would want the poisoned chalice of BREXIT, trying to complete a divorce from the EUROPEAN UNION with already 6 months of a tight timescale wasted because the wrong people are in the job. Add the recent poor economic data and the BOE into the mix. And we have uncertainty.\r\n\r\nI am now more bearish cable than I was just after the BREXIT referendum. Once Carney and his accountants at the BOE announced a change in policy to probably raise rates to counter inflation, my thought process was initially that we could perhaps see a series of hikes through 2018 as well. However, my change of heart vis-à-vis cable emanates from the recent data and Theresa May’s position as leader of the Conservative party. In my opinion adding all the negativity together there is a case building to cut interest rates further rather than hiking interest rates.\r\n\r\nThe EURO seems to be 100% in different to everything going on around it.  German Elections not much movement, riots and shameful violence by authorities on the streets of Barcelona nada… nothing. The EUR/USD has been stuck in about a 100-pip range.\r\n\r\nIt is a strange trading environment and I have to admit I cannot make sense out of it. Even the recent threat of a nuclear war had no effect. The VIX is below 10.\r\n\r\nI want to trade the USD to the long side, but, I have a nagging feeling that the DXY is simply flagging and my thoughts of Central Bank divergence whilst on the surface seem plausible, it could all be total bollocks and basically the DXY will resume lower and take out the recent lows.\r\n\r\nI have opinions and thoughts both sides of the market but on exactly what to do with the USD, I am just not that sure.\r\n\r\nI do however still believe that equities are ready to drop… I feel this is like the boy that cried wolf statement. I reckon if you go back through two years of blogs I have said this in about 60 of the 80 blogs published. Yet we have the most reluctant bull rally in modern day history.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nYou would have noticed that I hedged GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD ahead of the NFP into last weekend. This was a move to protect the existing trades but also buy me time. I haven’t hedged for over two years, but I feel that until I get my head around my TRADE PLAN it was best to hedge these two trades as they can run a long way very quickly.\r\n\r\nThe easy bit is done and both trades have triggered so basically now it’s all about working with a combined 500 pip loss and seeing what I can do to reduce it. These trades will be parked from my brain until the middle of the week at least I think.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nThe market has become a very strange beast to me of late.\r\n\r\nI like to know, or have a reasonably good idea why things happen, as things happen for a reason. The Forex market does have the same logic applied to it most of the time, even though with myself included traders will try to pin reasons to moves, when, sometimes the moves are just so off the board it would take in my opinion a very deranged person to work out the sense of the move at times.\r\n\r\nI wrote several weeks ago about a MARKET SHIFT. It never really got going. Most of it was based around Central Bank policy, which, apart from the BOC it looks like the remaining Central Banks apart from the FED, will have either cold feet on a move higher or, a watered-down version of their Monetary Policy update or a combination of both.\r\n\r\nI am constantly having to evaluate and re-evaluate my medium to longer-term views. I am still; Bullish the CAD currency despite the recent hiccups. Bearish the NZD and getting bearish the AUD at a great rate of knots. In the longer-term I want to be bullish the CHF.\r\n\r\nIn the interim, I am thinking about leaving the EUR and GBP alone. If someone were to hold a gun to my head and say I must trade one of these I would probably choose the GBP, but right now I am confused. Technically both currencies versus the USD still retain a constructive upward trend.\r\n\r\nCable looks good long from 1.2950 and the EU/USD from 1.1660. Technically these trades look to be a great RISK / REWARD opportunity but FUNDAMENTALLY I am not yet there!\r\n\r\nIf in doubt leave it out, is probably the best approach here unless of course I see a real conviction trade opportunity.\r\n\r\nIn the now...\r\n\r\nI think that commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD and MXN) are the way forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10163\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-08102017-785x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"785\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait a little and I will add back additional short USD/CAD trades and add NZD/CAD short trades as well.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 5 x live long AUD/NZD trades.\r\n\r\nI have also hedged a long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am looking to enter the NZD/USD on pullbacks. In addition, add back the EUR/NZD trade that I took profits on pre NFP day. Plus, to add NZD/CAD and NZD/JPY to my limit order set ups.\r\n\r\nIn addition, work my way out of the GBP/NZD hedged position.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE AUD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently I am in the process of building a position.\r\n\r\nI have live, 1 x AUD/JPY short, 1 x EUR/AUD long and like the GBP/NZD my GBP/AUD long trade was hedged given the uncertainties around the GBP following Theresa May’s conference speech and BREXIT shambles. My maximum loss on this trade is now 200 pips and given that the Monthly ATR is over 1,000 pips I am comfortable with this to manage.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Apart from working my way out of the GBP/AUD hedged position is to add on pullbacks AUD/USD short positions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10162\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-08102017-933x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"933\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10161\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-08102017-1024x779.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"779\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI hope that none of you have friends or families in FX Brokers but OMG they are bereft of ideas.\r\n\r\nI am trying out three new brokers on demo trades and I want one of them to eventually maintain my algorithmic (EA) trades.\r\n\r\nThey know that retail traders are disappearing as fast as turkeys with thanksgiving on the horizon, yet apart “FREEBIES” that we all know we pay for with poor rate spreads they seem to have no plan forward. I think these Russian white label deals have really screwed over the real brokers. It was OK when times were good but now they struggle.\r\n\r\nNot one of them wants to release numbers. There is a fear in doing so. My thought process leads me down a path that says that acquisitions will soon be order of the day to obtain efficiencies. When this happens, we will know that numbers are seriously declining.\r\n\r\nNo market news to report of other than at the year-end expect a huge push to try and covert clients. Remember… there is no such thing as a FREE LUNCH or CHARITABLE BROKER!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #150 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n8th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'UK RATE HIKE IN THE BALANCE?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10171-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-10-07 09:53:44', '2017-10-07 14:53:44', '', 10171, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10171-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(10180, 1, '2017-10-07 10:17:01', '2017-10-07 15:17:01', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a lot to talk about last week, it is difficult to know exactly where to focus first.  However, that is for a little later in the blog.\r\n\r\nThe USD got its mojo back last week in some style. I am still struggling to find reasons to be long the USD. Of late data has started to be the right side of “mixed” to support a move higher in the DXY, the PMi data was good. In addition, the recent FED speak has been very HAWKISH in tone. See the chart below (The chart does contain a few additional thoughts).\r\n\r\nOverall though I think that maybe it\'s the fact that the market is starting to believe that regardless “of whatever”, Yellen is leaving her position as FED CHAIR next February with another rate hike in her purse?\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10154\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017-1024x497.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"497\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHowever, this is my piece du résistance on the matter of recent USD (DXY) strength.\r\n\r\nI have a thought process along these lines….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The FED is raising rates come what may.</li>\r\n 	<li>The BOE has real dilemmas to face.Theresa May’s longevity as Prime Minister. She could be removed as Tory leader before I complete this blog!\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are pretty much a shambles. The “No Deal” scenario is openly discussed more and more. If May is “kicked out” another timeline vacuum ensues and this results in additional pressure on the exit deadline.\r\n\r\nThe recent PMi data was basically poor…well really CRAP. The UK economy is declining and it will only get worse before it stands a chance of getting better.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not. I just think it\'s a suicide mission on the UK economy to raise rates with so much uncertainty.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB governing council are basically crapping the bed about tapering and a timetable announcement of returning to an interest rate normalization policy. The latest meeting minutes included commentary like:“HIGHLY ACCOMODATIVE UNDER ALL SCENARIOS”\r\n“SUBSTANTIAL STIMULUS STILL NEEDED”\r\n“CONCERNS ABOUT CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND EURO RISE” “MUST BE MINDFUL OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS ON FUTURE POLICY”\r\n\r\nI would define this as not quite sure and uncertainty!</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA was playing stick. Not looking to move away from being accommodative / supportive. Then like a “bolt from the blue” out comes RBA board member Ian Harper who quipped that if the Australian was to worsen the RBA has NOT ruled out an interest rate cut.Well, in all honesty. That is normal. It’s what a Central bank does in its normal course of day-to-day business. However it is usually done on a nod and a wink basis, not in font size 72 to the media… interesting. This comment came after two bloody awful months of Retail Sales data.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ has recently stated that it is remaining accommodative for an extended period.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC, Stephen Poloz is being cagey on what the BOC will do next after two recent rate hikes. The recent run of data has been disappointing. Of all the Central Banks except the Fed I still think that the BOC will raise rates if only to curb house prices and personal debt borrowing in Canada.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB and BOJ remain unchanged, interfering if required and accommodative for generations to come!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nSimply put, the divergence of Central Bank policy is once again at the forefront of institutions as they head into the year end. Many have books based upon the calendar year and from now through to the end of the year the big movers and shakers will be getting positioned.\r\n\r\nI am still a HUGE believer that Central Bank monetary policy is what primarily moves a currency. I know that within this framework there are a lot of idiosyncratic reasoning behind some moves and that certain personalities believe that policy is more about themselves rather than the country, but overall, in my opinion Central Bank monetary policy is primary.\r\n\r\nBasically, the FED is raising interest rates in the U.S. and the rest are in limbo at best.\r\n\r\nThere will be some very interesting trading conditions ahead but from the way I am looking at this, I need the dust to settle a little at least until I can see a clear shift in sentiment.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day we could just be retracing technically in the DXY and there is a bear flag formation setting up to move the DXY lower once again inside the longer-term trend.\r\n\r\nI am finding it difficult to get an absolute fix on what is driving the USD and then on top of everything we have the geopolitical tensions. North Korea could raise its head once again as we enter a period of the country’s anniversaries. I noted during the week that TRUMP mentioned that we are now in “The calm before the storm”. In addition, there is the Iran nuclear deal that TRUMP wants to amend or discard (not sure it’s hard to keep up). Both items have enough to reverse the USD move at the drop of a hat.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot to consider if you are not a market scalper or day trader.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI have finally recorded, changed, updated, re-recorded and finally placed a version of “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE” on my YouTube and Screencast channels.\r\n\r\nIt is essentially for new subscribers to add a little more to a subscription decision other than the written word on my website. I can also use it with some advertising as well. I am never happy with these things and I will no doubt tinker with it moving forward. A couple of segments were re-worked but perhaps still require a little more attention. There comes a point however, that if I do NOT just post it, it may never see the light of day.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nNot as much luck with my EA’s (Expert Advisors) this week. These algorithms have taken a serious backseat. This coming week is a slack week for economic data so I should get a chance to move forward all things being equal.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOn my God… there is so much I could write about, I will be selective and to the best of my ability concise (Please allow some tolerance I am from Liverpool and I love having this SOAPBOX option).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: PMi DATA, THE BOE, BREXIT and THERESA MAY’S MELTDOWN.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit… there is a book in that heading alone.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was as predicted in last week’s DRIVE THRU. Manufacturing and Construction to miss and Services to beat.\r\n\r\nOverall the numbers were poor. In fact, Construction came in at 48.1 against 51.1 which placed it in the contraction zone being less than 50.0. Manufacturing recorded 55.9 against 56.7 and Services showed 53.6 versus 53.2.\r\n\r\nFrankly, this data is backward looking but in all honesty in the name of sanity how can the BOE raise rates on these numbers? The numbers are more akin to RATE CUTTING not RATE HIKING.\r\n\r\nOld flip-flopper will be flip flopping in my opinion but he has an out on his side to save face. First, whilst I realise the BOE has a mandate on inflation, second and thirdly, it also must consider economic stability and prevent unnecessary market volatility through uncertainties.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is just a bloody disaster by all accounts. Politicians are fecking useless at negotiation. The UK have put up David Davies a politician against Michel Barnier a “pen pushing jotter blotter” from Brussels who has no accountability to a parliament or voters. Barnier couldn’t give a crap. It’s just a job. Mind you he doesn’t appear to have to do a damn thing anyway, the Brits can’t even get into the starting blocks, absolutely fecking useless numpties.\r\n\r\nThe UK is so bad they are even promoting a “NO DEAL” as the outcome. FFS what a load of crap.\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough…\r\n\r\nTheresa May at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester coughed and spluttered her way through her speech. She even took a cough drop from Chancellor Philip Hammond to try and stop her coughing spasm. At the same time, in the background letters that were obviously stuck to the stage set with double sided tape fell off. The slogan which originally read” Building a country that works for everyone” ended up being “Building a country that works or everyon”. If that weren’t enough she was handed a P45 by a gatecrasher (In the UK you receive this form when you leave your existing job).\r\n\r\nWhat’s the phrase “When shit happens…. shit happens!!”\r\n\r\nShe was praised by her team of her arse-lickers stating that she carried on brilliantly through adversity. However, in the real world the wagons are circling just like in an old John Wayne movie!\r\n\r\nThe speech was low on content. BREXIT has brought the party to a dysfunctional state. The cracks, that were covered in paper after the referendum are widening and the paper cover gone. The word disastrous is being used by many media outlets to describe Theresa May’s performance. Far from rallying the troops she has heightened the differences.\r\n\r\nHer position a Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party is hanging by a thread. I believe she will be booted out with little dignity much like the way Maggie was, whilst on a business trip in Paris. It would be better for Theresa May to walk sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nHaving said that what numpty wants the responsibility of BREXIT? Maybe it’s best to leave her in position, her career is fecked anyway and the BREXIT negotiation disaster can be pinned 100% to her legacy.\r\n\r\nHere’s a point to consider…\r\n\r\nThe UK has done feck all on getting the BREXIT negotiations started. Could there be another referendum with a new leader as the “Unsullied” in the shires think that the Tory government have really fecked up BREXIT so far.\r\n\r\nJust saying and thinking aloud…\r\n\r\nAnyway, enough of that….\r\n\r\nWith regards to the above, Carney in my opinion, has a decent case to say; “Hold on, no rate hike” (even with 3% inflation which he could argue is transitory like all Central bankers do!). I think that there is a chance he could get away with it without being categorized again as a flip flopper. This would apply especially if Theresa May were to resign or be ousted inside the next 2/3 weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: CATALAN, BRUSSELS and the GERMAN ELECTION FALLOUT.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nSome horrible scenes around Barcelona were televised last weekend with voters being dragged, hit, whacked with batons and generally beaten up over simply trying to vote. For those who thought that Spain had come a long way since the Francisco (General) Franco era… think again…. it would appear NOT. Quite a disgrace.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the silence from the rest of the EUROPEAN UNION, BRUSSELS etc. was a shocking display of how a united EUROPE could NEVER happen not in a million years. It was an embarrassment to those who call themselves leaders. The silence to me however spoke louder than any words that politicians could utter.\r\n\r\nWe enter another weekend of probable disturbances as Mariano Rajoy (Spanish Prime Minister) suspends the Catalan Parliament session next Monday in an attempt to block an independence vote taking place in the regional parliament.\r\n\r\nThe Catalan leaders are at a crossroads. Either move forward with declaring independence or try to negotiate a settlement to separate with Madrid.\r\n\r\nThis story has a great deal more left in it, with the King of Spain (Felipe) being accused of being a mouthpiece for the Spanish Government by the Catalan Regional President Carles Puigdemont.\r\n\r\nMeetings are scheduled moving forward through the weekend but I feel that this item has a long, long way still to run before its settled. Already businesses are moving Head Offices out of Catalonia in readiness for the split. It does not seem to have directly affected the single currency that much… weird to me.\r\n\r\nThis is very quiet news…\r\n\r\nAngela Merkel is still busy in the background working away trying to finalize a revised coalition government. This is taking some time and press releases are sparse which, to me indicate issues on agreements. With so many parties involved, the result will be a washed out version on what Merkel campaigned on. Coalitions = weak government.\r\n\r\nI do not believe that this has been factored in at all to the single currency exchange rate. It appears to be in suspended animation mode at the moment. I think that the larger traders are more concerned with the moves from the ECB than anything else.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, TRADE BALANCE, RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nThe RBA is standing firm and frankly looking around at what is going on, strong leadership from Philip Lowe is paying off.\r\n\r\nIn last week’s statement, he stated that high exchange rates would harm the economy and as usual the RBA provided subtle jawboning which has worked.\r\n\r\nDuring the week, the Trade Balance data was good (+0.99BAUD$ against a forecast of +0.88B AUD$), this was counterbalanced at the same time by poor Retail Sales at -0.6% it was worse than last month at -0.2% but the forecast was a +0.3%, the AUD was taken to the woodshed and spanked lower.\r\n\r\nOn Friday, last week RBA member Ian Harper leapt out of the masses to quip that the RBA would cut interest rates if the recent slowdown in the Australian economy worsens.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE and JOBS DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nMore poor data was seen from Canada in the guise of Trade balance numbers that missed expectations (-CAD$3.4B forecast –CAD$2.6B).\r\n\r\nThe USD/CAD was whacked up another cent from 1.2470 to 1.2570 on the back of that data.\r\n\r\nThe jobs data followed 24 hours later and it was a very slight miss at 10k jobs vis-à-vis 12k anticipated. The Unemployment Rate remained at 6.2%, a slight uptick to 6.3% was expected.\r\n\r\nBecause the U.S. data was so erroneous the market struggled to know what to do and how to react and this overrode any logical moves with the CAD directly. Therefore, it basically tread water after the initial market volatility.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: NON-FARM PAYROLLS and ISM PMI data.</u>\r\n\r\nThe number was a negative 33,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, which is less than pre-the GFC. Average hourly earnings rose to 0.5% from a previous 0.1% and forecasted 0.3%. This was strong.\r\n\r\nThe USD strengthened but did not go hell for leather to break the trading ranges.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s blog even before we were made aware that last week’s numbers would be hard to interpret, given the storms and hurricanes that basically battered the U.S. of late, I was already of the opinion that NFP helping the FED with policy was a non-event. As, in my opinion, the Fed have decided already.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10155\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017-1024x674.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"674\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10156\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017-1024x846.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"846\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10165\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10166\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10164\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10167\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10168\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10169\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10170\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from at all.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> PPi, RETAIL SALES and CPi INFLATION DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nI would never be-little the power of inflation data for an economy. It obviously takes on greater importance when the U.S. economy is involved, as this data represents such a vital barometer for sentiment moving forward. However, without wanting to sound as complacent and blasé as the markets are to data releases, I do think whilst these numbers are interesting to read from a trending perspective, from a FED viewpoint I do not think they are going to matter unless they miss by 5% or greater… something mind blowing off forecast is what I mean.\r\n\r\nThe FED has made its mind up vis-à-vis an interest rate move higher in December.\r\n\r\nThe FX market being a future pricing mechanism based primarily off Central Bank Monetary Policy will be baking this into pricing as we move closer to the December FED meeting on the 12th and 13th, with the announcement due on the 13th December 2017 at 2PM EST.\r\n\r\nBack to economic data…\r\n\r\nLast time around, everything was positive 0.2% - 0.4% except for Retail Sales which posted a poor -0.2% number.\r\n\r\nThis time the forecasts show basically an improvement across the board with Retail Sales expected at 1.5%. We are dealing with the ultimate consumer society in the world. The biggest economy in the world. The forecasts should be a piece of piss.\r\n\r\nAlways expect the unexpected.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a lot of data due this week and as such we will be captives to the movements in equities, securities and commodities.\r\n\r\nI do not think I would get much disagreement when I say almost since TRUMP was inaugurated the market has been more headline news driven that anything else.\r\n\r\nI think that I am alone with these thoughts as I do NOT find this market easy and I am struggling to get the reasoning behind moves and finding traction with direction and trade set ups is a little more difficult than usual.\r\n\r\nThis makes trading more of a gamble than a well thought out reasoned strategy or TRADE PLAN. For traders with more than a 60-minute trading horizon this brings a raft of issues into play that the scalpers of this world do not have to consider.\r\n\r\nWe have considerable heightened geopolitical news hovering around us with regards to “Little Rocket Man” and the Iran nuclear deal review.\r\n\r\nIt would very easy and glib to say just be careful trading this week. It would be accurate but a bit wishy-washy.\r\n\r\nThe USD weakened into the close last Friday, I see this as purely positioning as frankly no-one would really want to be heavy into being long the USD into the weekend with all the geopolitical risk being about.\r\n\r\nWe are in ranges at the moment that last week’s NFP could not break and whilst some individual pairs cut extremes (GBP/USD &amp; AUD/USD), the EUR/USD held above 1.1660 which, I think is significant.\r\n\r\nMore detail of my thoughts and ideas will appear for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers as I add back trade set ups at the start of this week’s trading through Monday / Tuesday.\r\n\r\nFrom a general perspective, a lot depends on the news.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the only logical guide to present here would be to trade smaller sized positions. I expect a chop fest with no real overall direction, although, I do think that the chances of the USD breaking much higher will be limited unless a significant break past the 94.00 (DXY) the 23.6% retracement of the TRUMP inauguration move. If we break through 94.00 then the 95.86 (38.2%) would be in view, but in my opinion unless TRUMP has some significant “wins” I think the DXY moves lower with the trend and the USD takes another hit.\r\n\r\nTherefore…\r\n\r\nPlay the waiting game to see the reaction on Monday after NFP has been digested thru all markets. Try and get a confirmation of the bigger move before pulling the trigger.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +481 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,987 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #254 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n8th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'UK RATE HIKE IN THE BALANCE?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'uk-rate-hike-balance', '', '', '2017-10-08 09:55:22', '2017-10-08 14:55:22', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10180', 0, 'post', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(10181, 1, '2017-10-07 10:17:01', '2017-10-07 15:17:01', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a lot to talk about last week, it is difficult to know exactly where to focus first.  However, that is for a little later in the blog.\r\n\r\nThe USD got its mojo back last week in some style. I am still struggling to find reasons to be long the USD. Of late data has started to be the right side of “mixed” to support a move higher in the DXY, the PMi data was good. In addition, the recent FED speak has been very HAWKISH in tone. See the chart below (The chart does contain a few additional thoughts).\r\n\r\nOverall though I think that maybe it\'s the fact that the market is starting to believe that regardless “of whatever”, Yellen is leaving her position as FED CHAIR next February with another rate hike in her purse?\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10154\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017-1024x497.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"497\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHowever, this is my piece du résistance on the matter of recent USD (DXY) strength.\r\n\r\nI have a thought process along these lines….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The FED is raising rates come what may.</li>\r\n 	<li>The BOE has real dilemmas to face.\r\n\r\nTheresa May’s longevity as Prime Minister. She could be removed as Tory leader before I complete this blog!\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are pretty much a shambles. The “No Deal” scenario is openly discussed more and more. If May is “kicked out” another timeline vacuum ensues and this results in additional pressure on the exit deadline.\r\n\r\nThe recent PMi data was basically poor…well really CRAP. The UK economy is declining and it will only get worse before it stands a chance of getting better.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not. I just think it\'s a suicide mission on the UK economy to raise rates with so much uncertainty.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB governing council are basically crapping the bed about tapering and a timetable announcement of returning to an interest rate normalization policy. The latest meeting minutes included commentary like:\r\n\r\n“HIGHLY ACCOMODATIVE UNDER ALL SCENARIOS”\r\n“SUBSTANTIAL STIMULUS STILL NEEDED”\r\n“CONCERNS ABOUT CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND EURO RISE” “MUST BE MINDFUL OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS ON FUTURE POLICY”\r\n\r\nI would define this as not quite sure and uncertainty!</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA was playing stick. Not looking to move away from being accommodative / supportive. Then like a “bolt from the blue” out comes RBA board member Ian Harper who quipped that if the Australian was to worsen the RBA has NOT ruled out an interest rate cut.\r\n\r\nWell, in all honesty. That is normal. It’s what a Central bank does in its normal course of day-to-day business. However it is usually done on a nod and a wink basis, not in font size 72 to the media… interesting. This comment came after two bloody awful months of Retail Sales data.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ has recently stated that it is remaining accommodative for an extended period.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC, Stephen Poloz is being cagey on what the BOC will do next after two recent rate hikes. The recent run of data has been disappointing. Of all the Central Banks except the Fed I still think that the BOC will raise rates if only to curb house prices and personal debt borrowing in Canada.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB and BOJ remain unchanged, interfering if required and accommodative for generations to come!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nSimply put, the divergence of Central Bank policy is once again at the forefront of institutions as they head into the year end. Many have books based upon the calendar year and from now through to the end of the year the big movers and shakers will be getting positioned.\r\n\r\nI am still a HUGE believer that Central Bank monetary policy is what primarily moves a currency. I know that within this framework there are a lot of idiosyncratic reasoning behind some moves and that certain personalities believe that policy is more about themselves rather than the country, but overall, in my opinion Central Bank monetary policy is primary.\r\n\r\nBasically, the FED is raising interest rates in the U.S. and the rest are in limbo at best.\r\n\r\nThere will be some very interesting trading conditions ahead but from the way I am looking at this, I need the dust to settle a little at least until I can see a clear shift in sentiment.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day we could just be retracing technically in the DXY and there is a bear flag formation setting up to move the DXY lower once again inside the longer-term trend.\r\n\r\nI am finding it difficult to get an absolute fix on what is driving the USD and then on top of everything we have the geopolitical tensions. North Korea could raise its head once again as we enter a period of the country’s anniversaries. I noted during the week that TRUMP mentioned that we are now in “The calm before the storm”. In addition, there is the Iran nuclear deal that TRUMP wants to amend or discard (not sure it’s hard to keep up). Both items have enough to reverse the USD move at the drop of a hat.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot to consider if you are not a market scalper or day trader.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI have finally recorded, changed, updated, re-recorded and finally placed a version of “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE” on my YouTube and Screencast channels.\r\n\r\nIt is essentially for new subscribers to add a little more to a subscription decision other than the written word on my website. I can also use it with some advertising as well. I am never happy with these things and I will no doubt tinker with it moving forward. A couple of segments were re-worked but perhaps still require a little more attention. There comes a point however, that if I do NOT just post it, it may never see the light of day.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nNot as much luck with my EA’s (Expert Advisors) this week. These algorithms have taken a serious backseat. This coming week is a slack week for economic data so I should get a chance to move forward all things being equal.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOn my God… there is so much I could write about, I will be selective and to the best of my ability concise (Please allow some tolerance I am from Liverpool and I love having this SOAPBOX option).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: PMi DATA, THE BOE, BREXIT and THERESA MAY’S MELTDOWN.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit… there is a book in that heading alone.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was as predicted in last week’s DRIVE THRU. Manufacturing and Construction to miss and Services to beat.\r\n\r\nOverall the numbers were poor. In fact, Construction came in at 48.1 against 51.1 which placed it in the contraction zone being less than 50.0. Manufacturing recorded 55.9 against 56.7 and Services showed 53.6 versus 53.2.\r\n\r\nFrankly, this data is backward looking but in all honesty in the name of sanity how can the BOE raise rates on these numbers? The numbers are more akin to RATE CUTTING not RATE HIKING.\r\n\r\nOld flip-flopper will be flip flopping in my opinion but he has an out on his side to save face. First, whilst I realise the BOE has a mandate on inflation, second and thirdly, it also must consider economic stability and prevent unnecessary market volatility through uncertainties.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is just a bloody disaster by all accounts. Politicians are fecking useless at negotiation. The UK have put up David Davies a politician against Michel Barnier a “pen pushing jotter blotter” from Brussels who has no accountability to a parliament or voters. Barnier couldn’t give a crap. It’s just a job. Mind you he doesn’t appear to have to do a damn thing anyway, the Brits can’t even get into the starting blocks, absolutely fecking useless numpties.\r\n\r\nThe UK is so bad they are even promoting a “NO DEAL” as the outcome. FFS what a load of crap.\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough…\r\n\r\nTheresa May at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester coughed and spluttered her way through her speech. She even took a cough drop from Chancellor Philip Hammond to try and stop her coughing spasm. At the same time, in the background letters that were obviously stuck to the stage set with double sided tape fell off. The slogan which originally read” Building a country that works for everyone” ended up being “Building a country that works or everyon”. If that weren’t enough she was handed a P45 by a gatecrasher (In the UK you receive this form when you leave your existing job).\r\n\r\nWhat’s the phrase “When shit happens…. shit happens!!”\r\n\r\nShe was praised by her team of her arse-lickers stating that she carried on brilliantly through adversity. However, in the real world the wagons are circling just like in an old John Wayne movie!\r\n\r\nThe speech was low on content. BREXIT has brought the party to a dysfunctional state. The cracks, that were covered in paper after the referendum are widening and the paper cover gone. The word disastrous is being used by many media outlets to describe Theresa May’s performance. Far from rallying the troops she has heightened the differences.\r\n\r\nHer position a Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party is hanging by a thread. I believe she will be booted out with little dignity much like the way Maggie was, whilst on a business trip in Paris. It would be better for Theresa May to walk sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nHaving said that what numpty wants the responsibility of BREXIT? Maybe it’s best to leave her in position, her career is fecked anyway and the BREXIT negotiation disaster can be pinned 100% to her legacy.\r\n\r\nHere’s a point to consider…\r\n\r\nThe UK has done feck all on getting the BREXIT negotiations started. Could there be another referendum with a new leader as the “Unsullied” in the shires think that the Tory government have really fecked up BREXIT so far.\r\n\r\nJust saying and thinking aloud…\r\n\r\nAnyway, enough of that….\r\n\r\nWith regards to the above, Carney in my opinion, has a decent case to say; “Hold on, no rate hike” (even with 3% inflation which he could argue is transitory like all Central bankers do!). I think that there is a chance he could get away with it without being categorized again as a flip flopper. This would apply especially if Theresa May were to resign or be ousted inside the next 2/3 weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: CATALAN, BRUSSELS and the GERMAN ELECTION FALLOUT.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nSome horrible scenes around Barcelona were televised last weekend with voters being dragged, hit, whacked with batons and generally beaten up over simply trying to vote. For those who thought that Spain had come a long way since the Francisco (General) Franco era… think again…. it would appear NOT. Quite a disgrace.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the silence from the rest of the EUROPEAN UNION, BRUSSELS etc. was a shocking display of how a united EUROPE could NEVER happen not in a million years. It was an embarrassment to those who call themselves leaders. The silence to me however spoke louder than any words that politicians could utter.\r\n\r\nWe enter another weekend of probable disturbances as Mariano Rajoy (Spanish Prime Minister) suspends the Catalan Parliament session next Monday in an attempt to block an independence vote taking place in the regional parliament.\r\n\r\nThe Catalan leaders are at a crossroads. Either move forward with declaring independence or try to negotiate a settlement to separate with Madrid.\r\n\r\nThis story has a great deal more left in it, with the King of Spain (Felipe) being accused of being a mouthpiece for the Spanish Government by the Catalan Regional President Carles Puigdemont.\r\n\r\nMeetings are scheduled moving forward through the weekend but I feel that this item has a long, long way still to run before its settled. Already businesses are moving Head Offices out of Catalonia in readiness for the split. It does not seem to have directly affected the single currency that much… weird to me.\r\n\r\nThis is very quiet news…\r\n\r\nAngela Merkel is still busy in the background working away trying to finalize a revised coalition government. This is taking some time and press releases are sparse which, to me indicate issues on agreements. With so many parties involved, the result will be a washed out version on what Merkel campaigned on. Coalitions = weak government.\r\n\r\nI do not believe that this has been factored in at all to the single currency exchange rate. It appears to be in suspended animation mode at the moment. I think that the larger traders are more concerned with the moves from the ECB than anything else.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, TRADE BALANCE, RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nThe RBA is standing firm and frankly looking around at what is going on, strong leadership from Philip Lowe is paying off.\r\n\r\nIn last week’s statement, he stated that high exchange rates would harm the economy and as usual the RBA provided subtle jawboning which has worked.\r\n\r\nDuring the week, the Trade Balance data was good (+0.99BAUD$ against a forecast of +0.88B AUD$), this was counterbalanced at the same time by poor Retail Sales at -0.6% it was worse than last month at -0.2% but the forecast was a +0.3%, the AUD was taken to the woodshed and spanked lower.\r\n\r\nOn Friday, last week RBA member Ian Harper leapt out of the masses to quip that the RBA would cut interest rates if the recent slowdown in the Australian economy worsens.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE and JOBS DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nMore poor data was seen from Canada in the guise of Trade balance numbers that missed expectations (-CAD$3.4B forecast –CAD$2.6B).\r\n\r\nThe USD/CAD was whacked up another cent from 1.2470 to 1.2570 on the back of that data.\r\n\r\nThe jobs data followed 24 hours later and it was a very slight miss at 10k jobs vis-à-vis 12k anticipated. The Unemployment Rate remained at 6.2%, a slight uptick to 6.3% was expected.\r\n\r\nBecause the U.S. data was so erroneous the market struggled to know what to do and how to react and this overrode any logical moves with the CAD directly. Therefore, it basically tread water after the initial market volatility.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: NON-FARM PAYROLLS and ISM PMI data.</u>\r\n\r\nThe number was a negative 33,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, which is less than pre-the GFC. Average hourly earnings rose to 0.5% from a previous 0.1% and forecasted 0.3%. This was strong.\r\n\r\nThe USD strengthened but did not go hell for leather to break the trading ranges.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s blog even before we were made aware that last week’s numbers would be hard to interpret, given the storms and hurricanes that basically battered the U.S. of late, I was already of the opinion that NFP helping the FED with policy was a non-event. As, in my opinion, the Fed have decided already.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10155\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017-1024x674.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"674\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10156\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017-1024x846.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"846\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10165\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10166\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10164\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10167\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10168\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10169\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10170\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Not a lot this week to choose from at all.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> PPi, RETAIL SALES and CPi INFLATION DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nI would never be-little the power of inflation data for an economy. It obviously takes on greater importance when the U.S. economy is involved, as this data represents such a vital barometer for sentiment moving forward. However, without wanting to sound as complacent and blasé as the markets are to data releases, I do think whilst these numbers are interesting to read from a trending perspective, from a FED viewpoint I do not think they are going to matter unless they miss by 5% or greater… something mind blowing off forecast is what I mean.\r\n\r\nThe FED has made its mind up vis-à-vis an interest rate move higher in December.\r\n\r\nThe FX market being a future pricing mechanism based primarily off Central Bank Monetary Policy will be baking this into pricing as we move closer to the December FED meeting on the 12th and 13th, with the announcement due on the 13th December 2017 at 2PM EST.\r\n\r\nBack to economic data…\r\n\r\nLast time around, everything was positive 0.2% - 0.4% except for Retail Sales which posted a poor -0.2% number.\r\n\r\nThis time the forecasts show basically an improvement across the board with Retail Sales expected at 1.5%. We are dealing with the ultimate consumer society in the world. The biggest economy in the world. The forecasts should be a piece of piss.\r\n\r\nAlways expected the unexpected.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a lot of data due this week and as such we will be captives to the movements in equities, securities and commodities.\r\n\r\nI do not think I would get much disagreement when I say almost since TRUMP was inaugurated the market has been more headline news driven that anything else.\r\n\r\nI think that I am alone with these thoughts as I do NOT find this market easy and I am struggling to get the reasoning behind moves and finding traction with direction and trade set ups is a little more difficult than usual.\r\n\r\nThis makes trading more of a gamble than a well thought out reasoned strategy or TRADE PLAN. For traders with more than a 60-minute trading horizon this brings a raft of issues into play that the scalpers of this world do not have to consider.\r\n\r\nWe have considerable heightened geopolitical news hovering around us with regards to “Little Rocket Man” and the Iran nuclear deal review.\r\n\r\nIt would very easy and glib to say just be careful trading this week. It would be accurate but a bit wishy-washy.\r\n\r\nThe USD weakened into the close last Friday, I see this as purely positioning as frankly no-one would really want to be heavy into being long the USD into the weekend with all the geopolitical risk being about.\r\n\r\nWe are in ranges at the moment that last week’s NFP could not break and whilst some individual pairs cut extremes (GBP/USD &amp; AUD/USD), the EUR/USD held above 1.1660 which, I think is significant.\r\n\r\nMore detail of my thoughts and ideas will appear for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers as I add back trade set ups at the start of this week’s trading through Monday / Tuesday.\r\n\r\nFrom a general perspective, a lot depends on the news.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the only logical guide to present here would be to trade smaller sized positions. I expect a chop fest with no real overall direction, although, I do think that the chances of the USD breaking much higher will be limited unless a significant break past the 94.00 (DXY) the 23.6% retracement of the TRUMP inauguration move. If we break through 94.00 then the 95.86 (38.2%) would be in view, but in my opinion unless TRUMP has some significant “wins” I think the DXY moves lower with the trend and the USD takes another hit.\r\n\r\nTherefore…\r\n\r\nPlay the waiting game to see the reaction on Monday after NFP has been digested thru all markets. Try and get a confirmation of the bigger move before pulling the trigger.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +481 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,987 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #254 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n8th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'UK RATE HIKE IN THE BALANCE?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10180-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-10-07 10:17:01', '2017-10-07 15:17:01', '', 10180, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10180-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(10193, 1, '2017-10-08 09:55:22', '2017-10-08 14:55:22', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a lot to talk about last week, it is difficult to know exactly where to focus first.  However, that is for a little later in the blog.\r\n\r\nThe USD got its mojo back last week in some style. I am still struggling to find reasons to be long the USD. Of late data has started to be the right side of “mixed” to support a move higher in the DXY, the PMi data was good. In addition, the recent FED speak has been very HAWKISH in tone. See the chart below (The chart does contain a few additional thoughts).\r\n\r\nOverall though I think that maybe it\'s the fact that the market is starting to believe that regardless “of whatever”, Yellen is leaving her position as FED CHAIR next February with another rate hike in her purse?\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10154\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017-1024x497.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"497\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHowever, this is my piece du résistance on the matter of recent USD (DXY) strength.\r\n\r\nI have a thought process along these lines….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The FED is raising rates come what may.</li>\r\n 	<li>The BOE has real dilemmas to face.Theresa May’s longevity as Prime Minister. She could be removed as Tory leader before I complete this blog!\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are pretty much a shambles. The “No Deal” scenario is openly discussed more and more. If May is “kicked out” another timeline vacuum ensues and this results in additional pressure on the exit deadline.\r\n\r\nThe recent PMi data was basically poor…well really CRAP. The UK economy is declining and it will only get worse before it stands a chance of getting better.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not. I just think it\'s a suicide mission on the UK economy to raise rates with so much uncertainty.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB governing council are basically crapping the bed about tapering and a timetable announcement of returning to an interest rate normalization policy. The latest meeting minutes included commentary like:“HIGHLY ACCOMODATIVE UNDER ALL SCENARIOS”\r\n“SUBSTANTIAL STIMULUS STILL NEEDED”\r\n“CONCERNS ABOUT CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND EURO RISE” “MUST BE MINDFUL OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS ON FUTURE POLICY”\r\n\r\nI would define this as not quite sure and uncertainty!</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA was playing stick. Not looking to move away from being accommodative / supportive. Then like a “bolt from the blue” out comes RBA board member Ian Harper who quipped that if the Australian was to worsen the RBA has NOT ruled out an interest rate cut.Well, in all honesty. That is normal. It’s what a Central bank does in its normal course of day-to-day business. However it is usually done on a nod and a wink basis, not in font size 72 to the media… interesting. This comment came after two bloody awful months of Retail Sales data.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ has recently stated that it is remaining accommodative for an extended period.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC, Stephen Poloz is being cagey on what the BOC will do next after two recent rate hikes. The recent run of data has been disappointing. Of all the Central Banks except the Fed I still think that the BOC will raise rates if only to curb house prices and personal debt borrowing in Canada.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB and BOJ remain unchanged, interfering if required and accommodative for generations to come!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nSimply put, the divergence of Central Bank policy is once again at the forefront of institutions as they head into the year end. Many have books based upon the calendar year and from now through to the end of the year the big movers and shakers will be getting positioned.\r\n\r\nI am still a HUGE believer that Central Bank monetary policy is what primarily moves a currency. I know that within this framework there are a lot of idiosyncratic reasoning behind some moves and that certain personalities believe that policy is more about themselves rather than the country, but overall, in my opinion Central Bank monetary policy is primary.\r\n\r\nBasically, the FED is raising interest rates in the U.S. and the rest are in limbo at best.\r\n\r\nThere will be some very interesting trading conditions ahead but from the way I am looking at this, I need the dust to settle a little at least until I can see a clear shift in sentiment.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day we could just be retracing technically in the DXY and there is a bear flag formation setting up to move the DXY lower once again inside the longer-term trend.\r\n\r\nI am finding it difficult to get an absolute fix on what is driving the USD and then on top of everything we have the geopolitical tensions. North Korea could raise its head once again as we enter a period of the country’s anniversaries. I noted during the week that TRUMP mentioned that we are now in “The calm before the storm”. In addition, there is the Iran nuclear deal that TRUMP wants to amend or discard (not sure it’s hard to keep up). Both items have enough to reverse the USD move at the drop of a hat.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot to consider if you are not a market scalper or day trader.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI have finally recorded, changed, updated, re-recorded and finally placed a version of “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE” on my YouTube and Screencast channels.\r\n\r\nIt is essentially for new subscribers to add a little more to a subscription decision other than the written word on my website. I can also use it with some advertising as well. I am never happy with these things and I will no doubt tinker with it moving forward. A couple of segments were re-worked but perhaps still require a little more attention. There comes a point however, that if I do NOT just post it, it may never see the light of day.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nNot as much luck with my EA’s (Expert Advisors) this week. These algorithms have taken a serious backseat. This coming week is a slack week for economic data so I should get a chance to move forward all things being equal.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOn my God… there is so much I could write about, I will be selective and to the best of my ability concise (Please allow some tolerance I am from Liverpool and I love having this SOAPBOX option).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: PMi DATA, THE BOE, BREXIT and THERESA MAY’S MELTDOWN.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit… there is a book in that heading alone.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was as predicted in last week’s DRIVE THRU. Manufacturing and Construction to miss and Services to beat.\r\n\r\nOverall the numbers were poor. In fact, Construction came in at 48.1 against 51.1 which placed it in the contraction zone being less than 50.0. Manufacturing recorded 55.9 against 56.7 and Services showed 53.6 versus 53.2.\r\n\r\nFrankly, this data is backward looking but in all honesty in the name of sanity how can the BOE raise rates on these numbers? The numbers are more akin to RATE CUTTING not RATE HIKING.\r\n\r\nOld flip-flopper will be flip flopping in my opinion but he has an out on his side to save face. First, whilst I realise the BOE has a mandate on inflation, second and thirdly, it also must consider economic stability and prevent unnecessary market volatility through uncertainties.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is just a bloody disaster by all accounts. Politicians are fecking useless at negotiation. The UK have put up David Davies a politician against Michel Barnier a “pen pushing jotter blotter” from Brussels who has no accountability to a parliament or voters. Barnier couldn’t give a crap. It’s just a job. Mind you he doesn’t appear to have to do a damn thing anyway, the Brits can’t even get into the starting blocks, absolutely fecking useless numpties.\r\n\r\nThe UK is so bad they are even promoting a “NO DEAL” as the outcome. FFS what a load of crap.\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough…\r\n\r\nTheresa May at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester coughed and spluttered her way through her speech. She even took a cough drop from Chancellor Philip Hammond to try and stop her coughing spasm. At the same time, in the background letters that were obviously stuck to the stage set with double sided tape fell off. The slogan which originally read” Building a country that works for everyone” ended up being “Building a country that works or everyon”. If that weren’t enough she was handed a P45 by a gatecrasher (In the UK you receive this form when you leave your existing job).\r\n\r\nWhat’s the phrase “When shit happens…. shit happens!!”\r\n\r\nShe was praised by her team of her arse-lickers stating that she carried on brilliantly through adversity. However, in the real world the wagons are circling just like in an old John Wayne movie!\r\n\r\nThe speech was low on content. BREXIT has brought the party to a dysfunctional state. The cracks, that were covered in paper after the referendum are widening and the paper cover gone. The word disastrous is being used by many media outlets to describe Theresa May’s performance. Far from rallying the troops she has heightened the differences.\r\n\r\nHer position a Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party is hanging by a thread. I believe she will be booted out with little dignity much like the way Maggie was, whilst on a business trip in Paris. It would be better for Theresa May to walk sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nHaving said that what numpty wants the responsibility of BREXIT? Maybe it’s best to leave her in position, her career is fecked anyway and the BREXIT negotiation disaster can be pinned 100% to her legacy.\r\n\r\nHere’s a point to consider…\r\n\r\nThe UK has done feck all on getting the BREXIT negotiations started. Could there be another referendum with a new leader as the “Unsullied” in the shires think that the Tory government have really fecked up BREXIT so far.\r\n\r\nJust saying and thinking aloud…\r\n\r\nAnyway, enough of that….\r\n\r\nWith regards to the above, Carney in my opinion, has a decent case to say; “Hold on, no rate hike” (even with 3% inflation which he could argue is transitory like all Central bankers do!). I think that there is a chance he could get away with it without being categorized again as a flip flopper. This would apply especially if Theresa May were to resign or be ousted inside the next 2/3 weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: CATALAN, BRUSSELS and the GERMAN ELECTION FALLOUT.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nSome horrible scenes around Barcelona were televised last weekend with voters being dragged, hit, whacked with batons and generally beaten up over simply trying to vote. For those who thought that Spain had come a long way since the Francisco (General) Franco era… think again…. it would appear NOT. Quite a disgrace.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the silence from the rest of the EUROPEAN UNION, BRUSSELS etc. was a shocking display of how a united EUROPE could NEVER happen not in a million years. It was an embarrassment to those who call themselves leaders. The silence to me however spoke louder than any words that politicians could utter.\r\n\r\nWe enter another weekend of probable disturbances as Mariano Rajoy (Spanish Prime Minister) suspends the Catalan Parliament session next Monday in an attempt to block an independence vote taking place in the regional parliament.\r\n\r\nThe Catalan leaders are at a crossroads. Either move forward with declaring independence or try to negotiate a settlement to separate with Madrid.\r\n\r\nThis story has a great deal more left in it, with the King of Spain (Felipe) being accused of being a mouthpiece for the Spanish Government by the Catalan Regional President Carles Puigdemont.\r\n\r\nMeetings are scheduled moving forward through the weekend but I feel that this item has a long, long way still to run before its settled. Already businesses are moving Head Offices out of Catalonia in readiness for the split. It does not seem to have directly affected the single currency that much… weird to me.\r\n\r\nThis is very quiet news…\r\n\r\nAngela Merkel is still busy in the background working away trying to finalize a revised coalition government. This is taking some time and press releases are sparse which, to me indicate issues on agreements. With so many parties involved, the result will be a washed out version on what Merkel campaigned on. Coalitions = weak government.\r\n\r\nI do not believe that this has been factored in at all to the single currency exchange rate. It appears to be in suspended animation mode at the moment. I think that the larger traders are more concerned with the moves from the ECB than anything else.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, TRADE BALANCE, RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nThe RBA is standing firm and frankly looking around at what is going on, strong leadership from Philip Lowe is paying off.\r\n\r\nIn last week’s statement, he stated that high exchange rates would harm the economy and as usual the RBA provided subtle jawboning which has worked.\r\n\r\nDuring the week, the Trade Balance data was good (+0.99BAUD$ against a forecast of +0.88B AUD$), this was counterbalanced at the same time by poor Retail Sales at -0.6% it was worse than last month at -0.2% but the forecast was a +0.3%, the AUD was taken to the woodshed and spanked lower.\r\n\r\nOn Friday, last week RBA member Ian Harper leapt out of the masses to quip that the RBA would cut interest rates if the recent slowdown in the Australian economy worsens.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE and JOBS DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nMore poor data was seen from Canada in the guise of Trade balance numbers that missed expectations (-CAD$3.4B forecast –CAD$2.6B).\r\n\r\nThe USD/CAD was whacked up another cent from 1.2470 to 1.2570 on the back of that data.\r\n\r\nThe jobs data followed 24 hours later and it was a very slight miss at 10k jobs vis-à-vis 12k anticipated. The Unemployment Rate remained at 6.2%, a slight uptick to 6.3% was expected.\r\n\r\nBecause the U.S. data was so erroneous the market struggled to know what to do and how to react and this overrode any logical moves with the CAD directly. Therefore, it basically tread water after the initial market volatility.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: NON-FARM PAYROLLS and ISM PMI data.</u>\r\n\r\nThe number was a negative 33,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, which is less than pre-the GFC. Average hourly earnings rose to 0.5% from a previous 0.1% and forecasted 0.3%. This was strong.\r\n\r\nThe USD strengthened but did not go hell for leather to break the trading ranges.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s blog even before we were made aware that last week’s numbers would be hard to interpret, given the storms and hurricanes that basically battered the U.S. of late, I was already of the opinion that NFP helping the FED with policy was a non-event. As, in my opinion, the Fed have decided already.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10155\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017-1024x674.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"674\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10156\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017-1024x846.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"846\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10165\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10166\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10164\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10167\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10168\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10169\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10170\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from at all.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> PPi, RETAIL SALES and CPi INFLATION DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nI would never be-little the power of inflation data for an economy. It obviously takes on greater importance when the U.S. economy is involved, as this data represents such a vital barometer for sentiment moving forward. However, without wanting to sound as complacent and blasé as the markets are to data releases, I do think whilst these numbers are interesting to read from a trending perspective, from a FED viewpoint I do not think they are going to matter unless they miss by 5% or greater… something mind blowing off forecast is what I mean.\r\n\r\nThe FED has made its mind up vis-à-vis an interest rate move higher in December.\r\n\r\nThe FX market being a future pricing mechanism based primarily off Central Bank Monetary Policy will be baking this into pricing as we move closer to the December FED meeting on the 12th and 13th, with the announcement due on the 13th December 2017 at 2PM EST.\r\n\r\nBack to economic data…\r\n\r\nLast time around, everything was positive 0.2% - 0.4% except for Retail Sales which posted a poor -0.2% number.\r\n\r\nThis time the forecasts show basically an improvement across the board with Retail Sales expected at 1.5%. We are dealing with the ultimate consumer society in the world. The biggest economy in the world. The forecasts should be a piece of piss.\r\n\r\nAlways expect the unexpected.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a lot of data due this week and as such we will be captives to the movements in equities, securities and commodities.\r\n\r\nI do not think I would get much disagreement when I say almost since TRUMP was inaugurated the market has been more headline news driven that anything else.\r\n\r\nI think that I am alone with these thoughts as I do NOT find this market easy and I am struggling to get the reasoning behind moves and finding traction with direction and trade set ups is a little more difficult than usual.\r\n\r\nThis makes trading more of a gamble than a well thought out reasoned strategy or TRADE PLAN. For traders with more than a 60-minute trading horizon this brings a raft of issues into play that the scalpers of this world do not have to consider.\r\n\r\nWe have considerable heightened geopolitical news hovering around us with regards to “Little Rocket Man” and the Iran nuclear deal review.\r\n\r\nIt would very easy and glib to say just be careful trading this week. It would be accurate but a bit wishy-washy.\r\n\r\nThe USD weakened into the close last Friday, I see this as purely positioning as frankly no-one would really want to be heavy into being long the USD into the weekend with all the geopolitical risk being about.\r\n\r\nWe are in ranges at the moment that last week’s NFP could not break and whilst some individual pairs cut extremes (GBP/USD &amp; AUD/USD), the EUR/USD held above 1.1660 which, I think is significant.\r\n\r\nMore detail of my thoughts and ideas will appear for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers as I add back trade set ups at the start of this week’s trading through Monday / Tuesday.\r\n\r\nFrom a general perspective, a lot depends on the news.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the only logical guide to present here would be to trade smaller sized positions. I expect a chop fest with no real overall direction, although, I do think that the chances of the USD breaking much higher will be limited unless a significant break past the 94.00 (DXY) the 23.6% retracement of the TRUMP inauguration move. If we break through 94.00 then the 95.86 (38.2%) would be in view, but in my opinion unless TRUMP has some significant “wins” I think the DXY moves lower with the trend and the USD takes another hit.\r\n\r\nTherefore…\r\n\r\nPlay the waiting game to see the reaction on Monday after NFP has been digested thru all markets. Try and get a confirmation of the bigger move before pulling the trigger.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +481 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,987 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #254 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n8th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'UK RATE HIKE IN THE BALANCE?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '10180-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-10-08 09:55:22', '2017-10-08 14:55:22', '', 10180, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10180-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(10194, 1, '2017-10-13 15:57:57', '2017-10-13 20:57:57', '', 'DXY 15102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'dxy-15102017', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:34:40', '2017-10-14 12:34:40', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10195, 1, '2017-10-13 15:58:03', '2017-10-13 20:58:03', '', 'ECON DATA 15102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'econ-data-15102017', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:35:29', '2017-10-14 12:35:29', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10196, 1, '2017-10-13 15:58:08', '2017-10-13 20:58:08', '', 'TCHART 15102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'tchart-15102017', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:35:43', '2017-10-14 12:35:43', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10197, 1, '2017-10-13 15:58:13', '2017-10-13 20:58:13', '', 'SENTIMENT 15102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'sentiment-15102017', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:40:38', '2017-10-14 12:40:38', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10206, 1, '2017-10-13 16:05:49', '2017-10-13 21:05:49', '', 'AUDUSD D 15102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'audusd-d-15102017', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:36:23', '2017-10-14 12:36:23', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10207, 1, '2017-10-13 16:05:53', '2017-10-13 21:05:53', '', 'EURUSD D 15102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'eurusd-d-15102017', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:36:06', '2017-10-14 12:36:06', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10208, 1, '2017-10-13 16:06:01', '2017-10-13 21:06:01', '', 'GBPUSD D 15102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'gbpusd-d-15102017', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:36:15', '2017-10-14 12:36:15', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10209, 1, '2017-10-13 16:06:05', '2017-10-13 21:06:05', '', 'NZDUSD D 15102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nzdusd-d-15102017', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:36:32', '2017-10-14 12:36:32', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10210, 1, '2017-10-13 16:06:09', '2017-10-13 21:06:09', '', 'USDCAD D 15102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdcad-d-15102017', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:36:44', '2017-10-14 12:36:44', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10211, 1, '2017-10-13 16:06:13', '2017-10-13 21:06:13', '', 'USDCHF D 15102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdchf-d-15102017', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:36:53', '2017-10-14 12:36:53', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(10212, 1, '2017-10-13 16:06:15', '2017-10-13 21:06:15', '', 'USDJPY D 15102017', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usdjpy-d-15102017', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:37:02', '2017-10-14 12:37:02', '', 10213, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(10213, 1, '2017-10-14 07:51:13', '2017-10-14 12:51:13', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly two pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nGBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\nI added 160 pips last week, which frankly I thought there was little chance of doing, so I am happy.\r\n\r\nThe markets I think were surprised with the US inflation data last Friday. I expected HOT numbers and we got small misses across the board. The minimum anticipation was for at least in line prints. The moves that followed slight misses were extreme in a couple of cases which is now the normal response. Nevertheless, it was a miss, how the markets play with this data next week will be crucial. I suspect that unless something of a miracle happens we will sooner rather than later be testing the DXY support of 90.83.\r\n\r\nDuring last week, I spoke with a couple of you and brought up my current trading volumes and mentioned RISK MANAGEMENT, I promised that I would cover this point in this section of the blog this weekend.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING:\r\n\r\nAt the moment, I have a larger than normal number of LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS placed across my brokers. Over the past few days talking with some subscribers, it quickly became apparent that some of you guys were running with way too much RISK and that whilst everyone’s RISK TOLERANCE is different, and I respect that, there was a need for me to update what already exists in “THE LIBRARY” with a 2017 version, although in my opinion, the rules are very similar, in fact still the same.\r\n\r\nTrading in the FX market has elephant traps set all over place, no matter which way we move to improve our trading returns there are barriers. The only constant that we can control is RISK.\r\n\r\nWhether trades are LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS, in my opinion we should assume that they are live trades and treat our RISK that way.\r\n\r\nThis is how I approach matters: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>I work on the basis that every trade has a STOP LOSS liability of 200 pips. (This average level allows for my moving of STOP levels from time to time and it also takes into consideration the mix of FT, RT, FUN &amp; POS trades).You can of course set up a spread sheet to give you exact numbers. I know from experience that I am not touching near to my 3% RISK LIMIT based upon the sizes of the broker accounts I have and my day to day use for the different categories of trades. However, the mix of trade styles is skewed at the moment and because of this my position sizing has been reduced to compensate.(This process does NOT however include one set of trading pairs which I have exempted from the main accounts into their own broker account. I am dealing with them on a very long time frame, already over two years, the AUD/NZD trades)</li>\r\n 	<li>This combined number of pips should then be multiplied up by trade size incorporating the mixture of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lots to give you the actual total pip exposure.</li>\r\n 	<li>You can be clever and it requires a little work but if you are skilled enough you can have an actual CONTINGENT LIABILITY based on LIVE trades, and a future version based on LIMIT ORDERS as well as a combined version. This gives you complete 100% management.</li>\r\n 	<li>This is the calculated into $$$ value and this becomes what I call your CONTINGENT LIABILITY.</li>\r\n 	<li>It is your CONTINGENT LIABILITY expressed as a percentage to your broker account balance that gives you your RISK %.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nEXAMPLE:\r\n\r\nBROKER ACCOUNT BALANCE = USD$100,000.00\r\n\r\n15 LIVE TRADES\r\n10 LIMIT ORDER TRADES\r\n25 TOTAL TRADES\r\n25 x 200 pips\r\nRISK = 25 x 200 = 5,000 pips\r\n\r\nSINGLE MINI LOT TRADER = CONTINGENT LIABILITY of $5,000.00\r\n(This example assumes ALL trades are 1 x mini lot. You would need to factor in for micro and standard lot volumes if applicable)\r\n\r\nAs you know my RISK TOLERANCE = 3%, in this example the account has a RISK of 5%.\r\n\r\nEveryone has a different RISK TOLERANCE. If you are happy with 5%, 7%, 8% so be it is your money. However, if you are too exposed what can you do?\r\n\r\nWHAT TO DO TO FIX?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add more funds to your broker account.</li>\r\n 	<li>Reduce position sizes so that exposure based upon a mix of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lot trades are not greater than 3% of your broker account balance. (Or whatever your RISK TOLERANCE % is)</li>\r\n 	<li>Close positions to bring your RISK inside your tolerance level.</li>\r\n 	<li>Possibly if you understand how to do it, HEDGE your position as it stops RISK increasing but managing your way out of a hedged position can be difficult. It can take a long time as the best conditions should be directional with great momentum.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDO I EVER BREAK MY 3% CEILING?\r\n\r\nNot in my main USD major or my JPY broker accounts because that is where my position sizes are usually larger.\r\n\r\nI mentioned this earlier, I have my one exception and it’s NOT a major break from my principles but I acknowledge it is different approach, but it is managed.\r\n\r\nAs many of you are aware from my existing trades and limit orders my NZD cross rate exposure, mainly through the AUD/NZD is well beyond the 3% when it is all said and done as I have added a lot more RISK to my NZD cross positions through the EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and NZD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI operate all my NZD cross rate exposure through a separate broker account. My CONTINGENT LIABILITY is just over 5.5%. I have set my limit at 7%\r\n\r\nI control RISK through a combination of hedging and position sizing adjustments. My NZD is a long, long term CORE TRADE primarily on the AUD/NZD cross.\r\n\r\nThis has been a two-year trade so far and I see it operating for another two-years minimum. I wanted greater flexibility given my FUNDAMENTAL views and the period within I am proposing to work this trade.\r\n\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nI am very lucky, I can operate two large accounts (from my own values) and three smaller ones to manage trades through. The gap between my trading positions and the account balance may seem unrealistic at times especially for new traders to understand, however this is what RISK MANAGEMENT is all about.\r\n\r\nThere is never a threat about a margin call and three or four bad trades will not KILL the account, it hurts me, but that\'s trading.\r\n\r\nI am here for the long haul. Longevity in trading is about patience and being sidelined quite a bit if you are NOT happy with the conditions.\r\n\r\nI am not sure whether this helps, I hope it does not confuse.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nThis bizarre market continues to baffle me.\r\n\r\nLast week, I thought that a HAWKISH FED would produce USD strength across the board – we saw weakness.\r\n\r\nSpanish police dragging people away from polling booths followed by a possible declaration of independence I thought would be bad news from whatever perspective viewed for the EURO – it did nothing, hardly moved.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader, I find myself trading semi FUNDAMENTAL and adjusting my style, approach and thoughts constantly.\r\n\r\nI am still comfortable being long AUD/NZD. I still believe the NZD currency is over-valued and fair value is closer to 0.6500 (NZD/USD). This makes me comfortable being long the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD cross rates.\r\n\r\nIn addition, should the JPY correct lower, which is very possible, it should bring all JPY pairs lower with it eventually. This should be a RISK event therefore, the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD should move higher.\r\n\r\nThe EURO is now confusing me, following Draghi’s very clear comments earlier this month. Absolutely clear forward guidance, better than Yellen and Carney added together.\r\n\r\nThe AUD, despite comments from the RBA, I think could be on a corrective move higher before heading lower again. Whilst this helps my AUD/NZD trade it does nothing for my EUR/AUD or GBP/AUD trades, although the latter is hedged at a 200-pip loss. Also, the JPY has a place to play here as already mentioned.\r\n\r\nDo not get me started on the fecking pig of a currency the cable. I just do not know where Theresa May and the then the BOE are going to go with this one especially if the EU grant a two-year extension to the Article 50 deadline date under the guise of transitional time. What happens if the EU says no extension?  Whooooooooooosh…. It could be the outcome, who knows?\r\n\r\nThe CAD, I was clear on its move lower through 1.2000 (USD/CAD) but it is struggling with 1.2460. In addition, you weigh in the comments from Poloz and the well-known phrase I used to be decisive and now I am not quite sure and that sums up the markets view of the loonie.\r\n\r\nI think if NAFTA remains with Canada and the U.S. with a cross border trading alliance this will do the trick and put some lead in the pencil of the CAD$ and it should strengthen as a result. The economic data that couldn’t miss for months back to back has tailed off at late. So, with rate hikes from the BOC being data dependent this needs to improve.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10197\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017-771x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"771\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n2 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY and 2 x short LIMIT ORDERS with USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait as per my comments above in section 4.2\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 2 x EUR/NZD long trades plus a short NZD/JPY trade.\r\n\r\nI still hold a hedged long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips. I am not in any rush to work my way out of this position.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further 3 x GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am waiting for the market to reset before adding additional trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10199\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017-825x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017-900x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nAbsolutely nothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #151 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'THE EU TROJAN HORSE', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'eu-trojan-horse', '', '', '2017-10-14 07:51:13', '2017-10-14 12:51:13', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10213', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
