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(9838, 1, '2017-08-05 07:36:33', '2017-08-05 12:36:33', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI cannot believe that we are into August. This blog is the last one for a few weeks, I return with the “DRIVE THRU” blog on September 3rd, 2017.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note that trading will continue through the “DRIVE THRU” break. I do have one or two key domestic action items to fulfil during the break and I will alert you when these are in play.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BOE “Super Thursday” event is now behind us and despite advising the markets that tightening is on the way, it was obvious due to the reaction in cable falling from around 1.3260 to about 1.3110 in the hour or so after the news was released and Mark Carney’s subsequent press conference, that the markets had priced in a more hawkish BOE. I will cover this event a in little more detail later.\r\n\r\nLooking at money $$$...\r\n\r\nI covered lots of trades ahead of last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and added a positive +691 pips for the first few days of the month. It’s a great start and I am very quickly pulling back my pips shortfall from earlier in the year due to my house move followed almost immediately by a 4-week vacation. There is still some way to go to my 10,000-pip annual objective but I am now almost back to where my pips total should be for this time of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs Data.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px;\">The Kiwi has been struggling since the data was released mid-week. Job growth in New Zealand is flat-lining. In Q2 2017, employment fell by 0.2% It was up 1.2% the previous quarter and it was forecasted to be positive this quarter by 0.7%.</p>\r\nIt was the first contraction in employment since Q3 2015. The participation rate also slid 0.6%.\r\n\r\nHaving only recently visited New Zealand both North and South Islands, the place was buzzing and the dynamics appeared very positive. However, beneath this outer crust and dynamism the wages environment is subdued. In this instance, New Zealand is no different to other developed countries, despite unemployment levels being at historic low levels, wages are just NOT picking up.\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>AUD: RBA Rate Statement.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px;\">Dr. Philip Lowe (RBA Governor) kept rates unchanged and kept the commentary neutral. He did however elude to the fact that should the current AUD strength continue, it is likely to weigh on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would result in a slower pick-up of economic activity and inflation than currently forecasted.</p>\r\nDo I read… AUD strength = a growth slowdown?\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective; I do think that the RBA would prefer a weaker currency (who wouldn’t). With the AUD/USD hitting an 0.8065, the orders for Prozac at the RBA would have increased. A break below 0.7840 (recent breakout level) would ease matters a great deal. Obviously, an AUD/USD exchange rate hovering between 0.7000 and 0.7500 would be preferred by the RBA.\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li>GBP: BOE and Carney Press Conference.Interest Rate on Hold\r\nMPC 6-2 vote\r\nGrowth forecasts revised lower.\r\nInflation to peak c.3% in October.\r\nInterest Rates may need TO RISE FASTER than markets imply.\r\nUncertainty about BREXIT will weigh on growth.\r\nWages growth market down from 3.5% to 3%.\r\n\r\nThey were the key things that I noted from the Statement and Press Conference.\r\n\r\nIn addition, what made me giggle a bit was Carney’s multiple references to households and businesses taking the lead in reactions to BREXIT uncertainties. He noted that both households and business were taking BREXIT in their stride and that they were both expecting a smooth transition.\r\n\r\nFFS… my arse.\r\n\r\nHouseholds are more in debt than ever. Wages are not keeping growth in line with inflation. There is great uncertainty.\r\n\r\nBusinesses are using BREXIT as an excuse to limit wage rises on the back of “be grateful you have a job all things considered”.\r\n\r\nIs Threadneedle Street in a time warp?\r\n\r\nThese guys beggar belief. Carney stated that the BOE has spoken to ‘real” people about policies. Who are these people, the Chaps in the local pub in the city around the corner from the BOE?\r\n\r\nThe GBP however was whacked on the BOE statement and the following Press Conference and again on the NFP data, moving lower by almost 250 pips from its pre “Super Thursday” highs.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs Data.It was a small miss on the Canadian data, which, I suppose given how, of late Canadian data has nearly always been a beat was a little surprising. Personally, I welcomed this miss, as it has allowed the USD/CAD to rally (CAD to weaken). I have been waiting very patiently for an entry level short (This entry was posted to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers POS393). I feel that this level should be achieved early this week.\r\n\r\nThe Trade Balance number at (-3.6 CAD$ Billion versus -1.3 CAD$ billion expected) was a little worrying… but one month does not make up a trend.\r\n\r\nI am firmly in the camp that the CAD has at least another leg lower and a big one at that.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.I suppose my position on the reaction to the data would be “The market was just too heavily positioned the wrong way… far too much USD weakness, and by the looks of things too many USD shorts.\r\n\r\nThe data at 209k new jobs versus 181k predicted once again showed up the difference between ADP and NFP. ADP simply cannot be trusted as an indicator or a barometer when it comes to looking at forecasting NFP. Then again, only a fecking loony would forecast NFP, it\'s a bloody lottery when all said and done…but hang on…maybe it’s not a lottery. At least with a lottery you have a chance!\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers. After the analysts and experts crawled out from beneath their desks and realised this the USD started to strengthen in style (Over 100 points higher).\r\n\r\nWell over, +100 pip moves with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nThe usual suspects crawled out from under rocks to claim that the FED’s rate rise in December is possibility back on. FFS, HMOG, FGS, and JM&amp;J… we are in the middle of summer. Given the fact we have a clown in the White House, I would not be giving forward guidance on a damn thing more than a few hours ahead never mind a few months. I suppose these flutes are not in any way accountable for their predictions and they mostly have no skin in the game, so who cares what they say. In my opinion, this is one reason why CNBC ratings are falling faster than the cable at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe only person to listen to about FED activity in my opinion is Janet Yellen. Ignore the noise.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9820\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017-1024x888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"888\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Those awfully nice chaps at the RBNZ led by Governor Graeme “the dealer” Wheeler has my top pick of the week this week.As I type this, the memorandum will already be circulating at the RBNZ deciding on the choice of wine for this week’s Press Conference and whether to go for cheese or pate. All the local corporate hospitality companies have been moved from orange to red alert to ensure sufficient stemware is on hand. No swigging from the bottles at the RBNZ.\r\n\r\nOn a more serious note...\r\n\r\nThe jobs data last week was a surprising miss. The Kiwi dollar back up at NZD/USD 0.7500 must have had Wheeler pissing conkers. Many traders / analysts / experts? had the NZD/USD trading at 0.7800 testing the May 2015 levels.\r\n\r\nNobody expects a rate move from the current 1.75%. It’s all about the commentary. Will Wheeler remain neutral or will he jawbone and go dovish trying to send the NZD/USD back towards 0.7000?\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago just prior to the latest drop in the USD, the NZD was showing signs of life to move sharply higher. A spokesperson from the RBNZ said basically “so what” 75%-80% of what the NZD/USD does exchange rate wise is out of the RBNZ control.\r\n\r\nOK… let’s roll out the same flute with the NZD/USD at 0.8000. Would the response be different? As sure as eggs are eggs it would be. There would be jawboning. As soon as dairy exports are threatened the RBNZ will act and like a good central bank they want stability. I would not rule out jawboning at this meeting just to keep the markets in check.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, Wheelers rate statement and his jawboning never seem to go in tandem. It’s like he speaks with this right hand and writes with his left and neither hand knows what the other hand has done or is doing.\r\n\r\nIt all adds together to give us a news event to follow with interest. The Rate statement is released at 5PM EST and the Press Conference takes place at 6PM EST this Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: PPi and CPi data is released this week. Given that the FED is off its normalization route at the moment (even with the better than expected NFP data). These news items may not have the usual effect on markets other than for 30 minutes or so after the data is released. The FED change and the summer may play a combined role here. Nevertheless, we should be aware of the results.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9821\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017-1024x845.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"845\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.1.1: YOUR <strong>BENEFITS</strong> OF SUBSCRIBING:</u>\r\n\r\nI am obviously biased in this section;\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, it is not just about market commentaries and suggested trade set ups. I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different from other providers in the Forex Market.\r\nHow have I created differentiation?\r\n\r\nI am a full-time Forex Trader of over 9 years.\r\nI trade my trades.\r\nI have SKIN in the game.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – not all service providers are traders. </strong>\r\n\r\nAll my suggested trades are communicated via Twitter through a secure / closed account and confirmed with more back up data for my trades through email. I tell you when I am getting in and I advise you if I am getting out. If you want to copy me you know what I am doing.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – Real time trading (24 x 5), regardless of time zone</strong>\r\n\r\nI am NOT an educator. I am a trader first and foremost, but I can help many traders become better at what they do\r\nForex Trading is repetition and to a large extent a daily routine and many times quite boring.\r\nTechnical trading of patterns and previous support and resistance levels, Pivot points and Fibonacci levels, they all work.\r\nI feel and my successes are based these indicators being used alongside fundamentals.\r\nFundamentals alone are not good enough in my opinion. They will eventually work but requires very, very deep pockets.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I live for my trades and pass this belief to subscribers</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI offer serious traders additional support such as “one-on-one” coaching: -\r\n\r\nIdentifying Chart Patterns\r\nWhat do candlestick patterns mean?\r\nWhat do single candlesticks signify?\r\nHow do I identify high probability trades?\r\nHow to Manage RISK\r\nHow to POSITION SIZE effectively\r\nEffective Account Management\r\nHow to achieve Market longevity.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I want to help you achieve a Trading success</strong>\r\n\r\nI provide Market Commentary – but only when there is something important to communicate about the markets or something that is on my mind to say.\r\nI tell it how it is from my perspective. I do my best to straight talking in every situation.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU - I remove the noise remain informative and focused</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive a “FULL VERSION” of this blog that includes sections on: -\r\nMy Market Trading Review (PREMIUM SERVICE progress)\r\nTechnical views plus Fundamental views and thoughts\r\nMarket Sentiment analysis\r\nCore Trades and Core Positions analysis\r\nA review of current LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – It’s open, honest, straight to the point and concise</strong>\r\n\r\nAnnual (Platinum) Subscribers receive, (if they want it) a personal monthly review via SKYPE or FaceTime of the PREMIUM SERVICE trades, an overview of the markets and my FUNDAMENTAL views / ideas moving forward.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I welcome interaction it feeds success</strong>\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs.\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 70% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +691 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,906 net pips\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.2.1: SUBSCRIBING NOW…  HAS BENEFITS:</u>\r\n\r\nEven though I am not producing a “DRIVE THRU” blog for the next three weeks, my subscription periods of 10, 20 or 40 weeks are based around the DRIVE THRU posts.\r\n\r\nTherefore subscribing now really means that your subscription does not start until 3rd September, three weeks’ time. However, between now and them, I am still trading therefore suggested set ups and twitter, email, in fact all communication is open.\r\n\r\nTherefore: -\r\n\r\nA 10-week CAD$500.00 subscription starts 3rd September and would complete on 12th November 2017.\r\n\r\nA 20-week CAD$800.00 subscription would start 3rd September and would complete on 10th February 2018.\r\n\r\nA 40-week CAD$1,250.00 Platinum subscription would start 3rd September and complete on 30th June 2018.\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week the PREMIUM SERVICE added +691 net pips. That I think was the biggest net pip haul in a week this year. Happy Days!!\r\n\r\nI had a few SKYPE sessions (Market Review and Training) over the past week or so. Some great feedback and some interesting ideas for me to mull over amongst other things over the next few weeks.\r\n\r\nWhilst this is the last blog until September, I will still be trading through the month and set-ups should still be coming through on a regular basis. The only caveat that I have is that it is the summer and moves are rather limiting to say the least, although, over the past couple of days we have seen some good moves, so maybe this year will be slightly different.\r\n\r\nWe have a TRUMP in the White House and he seems incapable of self-control so I guess he will always create news, which could affect the FX markets.\r\n\r\nDespite, a great initial return in pips this month so far, I am sticking to what I said last week. The market is difficult to follow as correlations and relationships are still askew.\r\n\r\nWe are at a RE-ALIGNMENT and until this pushes through properly through all markets we will to a large extent be in a state of flux.\r\n\r\nThere are a lot of consolidations in the markets at the moment. The longer we consolidate the less I am inclined to believe that the moves higher or lower were false breakouts or breakdowns.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD will lead the markets through this RE-STRUCTURE &amp; RE-ALIGNMENT if it fails to move beyond 1.2000, and subsequently consolidate there, I will question my overall thoughts regarding a RE-ALIGNMENT. However, with the ECB looking to normalize monetary policy sometime soon, I think that the markets are waiting to fire on all cylinders.\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nNow that NFP and BOE “Super Thursday” is out of the way, and we have recently heard from the FED, BOJ, RBA and BOC, we should have the basis of at least 60 days directional trading based upon Central Bank policies.\r\n\r\nThis coming week therefore my focus will be on “value entries”. I think that I must focus here based upon the fact we are in August.\r\n\r\nThe EUR cross rates look very attractive still to the long side; EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD. Nice pullback entries would be the order of the day.\r\nI also want to add to my position with the EUR/CHF trade on the basis that there are only round number resistances on the way back to 1.2000. I have three x CHF long trades at the moment and would have no problem adding more throughout the summer.\r\n\r\nAway from the EUR. The AUD looks very interesting especially on a breakdown through 0.7840 which was the breakout point.\r\n\r\nWith regards to cable; I am still more of a 1.2000 than a 1.3500 guy. I just don’t get this BREXIT complacency and all the shite talked about a HARD BREXIT versus a SOFT BREXIT. What a load of bollocks. The EUROZONE are NOT going to make BREXIT a walk in the park for one very simple reason… CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nFor now; I am waiting for a nice pullback entry which we will get to re-enter short once again. I am avoiding the GBP crosses at the moment, the GBP/CAD being the exception based on CAD and GBP direction / momentum on the weekly and monthly charts. They are in between levels and rather than waste time on these the EUR crosses offer a better return from analyzing time spent on charts.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to enter CAD short across the board with USD/CAD, CAD/JPY (already in place), GBP/CAD, AUD/USD, CHF/CAD and NZD/CAD trades. Not 100% on EUR/CAD given the single currency bullishness.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\nThis is a new addition to this section. The SHORT or LONG indicators in the excel sheet are based on buying and selling pressure algorithms averaged for the time periods. I use these from time to time for confirmation of a trade. In addition, when I see the Short, Medium and Long term periods in alignment this gives me more confidence vis-à-vis a trades direction and who is in control of the currency pair, the bears or the bulls.\r\n<u></u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MKT-SENT-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9822\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MKT-SENT-06082017-675x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"675\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nPrior to the “Debelle” comments from a couple of weeks ago this pair looked very constructive to the long side. It was whacked lower on the comments. Longer-term fair value for this pair is much higher.\r\n\r\nBasically, it is a slow mover but hopefully before I die it will be back into the 1.20’s again!\r\n\r\nI am going to persevere with this pair… I have for almost two years now!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCHF PAIRS: (Live)\r\n\r\nI am building this overall position. We have already taken c.180 pips from existing trades. I will be adding more positions as well as the additional POS trades added after NFP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD and EUR Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nAt some stage I am going to have to take the plunge and enter long EUR/USD and hold. At some stage this year the ECB is going to taper and normalize. I want to be in position sooner rather than later for this. In addition, it makes sense to add EUR cross rates as well.\r\n\r\nFollowing the NFP move, I now want to see this pair consolidate at lower levels before moving higher once again. This is the pullback that I was waiting for and it has come as a bit of a surprise. The market was very long the single currency, hopefully a lot of the longs will be shaken out with the NFP move and re-balance things a bit.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD and GBP Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nI am waiting on a pullback after the NFP data to set up a batch of shorts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIVE-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9824\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIVE-06082017-928x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"928\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIMIT-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9823\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIMIT-06082017-851x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"851\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nWHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWith a title like that it sounds like I have an end of the world type of prediction to follow… you are safe!\r\n\r\nWe are now into the sleepy summer. There are some risks, most of them are geopolitical.\r\n\r\nI have in the main over recent weeks been looking forward predicting a new world… CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE, RE-STRUCTURE, RE-ALIGNMENT of the markets and I still believe we are in the throes of this happening despite the recent 72 hours or so in the Forex Market.\r\n\r\nLet’s recap what happened in the immediate past: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Mark Carney (BOE, Governor), finally came out and said what needed to be said to put the damn bulls back in their boxes for at least this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>We had a blowout NFP number.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThat’s nothing earth shattering. Does the above change my thoughts and views that I have had for the past month or so?\r\n\r\nAbsolutely not; I was bearish and shorting the cable long before “Super Thursday”.\r\n\r\nDid I predict a good NFP?\r\n\r\nI don\'t do predictions and I doubt even David Copperfield or Penn &amp; Teller could magic up an accurate NFP number.\r\n\r\nWe are in transition.\r\n\r\nFrom this Monday I am on 50% leave for the summer until the 1st September. So, what is next?\r\n\r\nOver the next few weeks the big Forex event could be the Jackson Hole Symposium. Initially Mario Draghi (ECB, President) was going to use this event as the place he would talk about the timetable of events within the ECB for a return to interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nI am not so certain that he will do this. My thought process is basically due to the fact the markets are ready to leap on the back of the single currency and send it to outer space (in forex terms) about 1.2500-1.3000 if the mood takes them. Draghi would literally poop his pants if he thought the EUR/USD would be at 1.2500 in rapid order.\r\n\r\nWe have German elections this Autumn/Fall and whilst German savers would welcome normalization, I would say that EUROZONE exporters primarily based in Germany would be buying “Andrex” and the like, in Costco quantities on a daily basis, as the increase in liquid stools could potentially reach epidemic proportions. Sales of Imodium could go through the roof (This is not investment advice).\r\n\r\nGerman elections is one good reason why Mario Draghi may just provide some B.S. at Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nMy fear is that “THE DONALD” will create the next big move. It will of course be largely “not surprising” but it will be unpredictable from a timing viewpoint, even though we know about the potential of something happening.\r\n\r\nRight now, given all the geopolitical events in play around the world the markets are complacent. All the U.S. markets are concerned about are 401K valuations and returns, stock valuations mean feck all; we are on the brink once again in my opinion… (RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT).\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>What about China being declared a currency manipulator, now that they failed to intervene effectively with North Korea?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about China getting huge trade restrictions placed upon them by the U.S.?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea dropping an ICBN on Japan… by mistake or intentionally?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea taking aim on the continental United States?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about the Russian / U.S. diplomatic expulsion tit for tat getting out of control spilling over into troubles in the “Old Soviet Block?</li>\r\n 	<li>What happens if the Iran / U.S. nuclear deal blows up?</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP has sided with Saudi Arabia over the Qatar terrorism claims. What would happen if this dispute escalates and unsettles stability in the region and subsequently OIL production?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have only highlighted US based geopolitical related issues, as usually these would affect all markets to varying degrees. The chances of something happening could be 50-50 from my perspective, but who knows. I have ignored all the investigations and enquiries that shadow the TRUMP administration, these can just flare up at any time without warning, a tweet could kick it off.\r\n\r\nSo; what am I saying?\r\n\r\nJust be on your toes if you are trading over the next three or four weeks. Many traders are away. Many traders simply do not trade the summer.\r\n\r\nMost risks are similar to what we have every summer…  geopolitical. There are more flare up zones than the ones I have listed above, but I do feel that those areas with a TRUMP involvement are more at risk.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective as I have written earlier we are in the throes of a transition. There are entry “Gifts” as I call them on the horizon. Grab them; the EUR/USD in particular, but hold with wider stops than usual to allow for the very thin trading conditions with lower liquidity than usual.\r\n\r\nTake care, back on September 3rd.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #144 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 6th August 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9836-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-08-05 07:36:33', '2017-08-05 12:36:33', '', 9836, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9836-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(9839, 1, '2017-08-05 07:36:54', '2017-08-05 12:36:54', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI cannot believe that we are into August. This blog is the last one for a few weeks, I return with the “DRIVE THRU” blog on September 3rd, 2017.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note that trading will continue through the “DRIVE THRU” break. I do have one or two key domestic action items to fulfil during the break and I will alert you when these are in play.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BOE “Super Thursday” event is now behind us and despite advising the markets that tightening is on the way, it was obvious due to the reaction in cable falling from around 1.3260 to about 1.3110 in the hour or so after the news was released and Mark Carney’s subsequent press conference, that the markets had priced in a more hawkish BOE. I will cover this event a in little more detail later.\r\n\r\nLooking at money $$$...\r\n\r\nI covered lots of trades ahead of last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and added a positive +691 pips for the first few days of the month. It’s a great start and I am very quickly pulling back my pips shortfall from earlier in the year due to my house move followed almost immediately by a 4-week vacation. There is still some way to go to my 10,000-pip annual objective but I am now almost back to where my pips total should be for this time of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs Data.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px;\">The Kiwi has been struggling since the data was released mid-week. Job growth in New Zealand is flat-lining. In Q2 2017, employment fell by 0.2% It was up 1.2% the previous quarter and it was forecasted to be positive this quarter by 0.7%.</p>\r\nIt was the first contraction in employment since Q3 2015. The participation rate also slid 0.6%.\r\n\r\nHaving only recently visited New Zealand both North and South Islands, the place was buzzing and the dynamics appeared very positive. However, beneath this outer crust and dynamism the wages environment is subdued. In this instance, New Zealand is no different to other developed countries, despite unemployment levels being at historic low levels, wages are just NOT picking up.\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>AUD: RBA Rate Statement.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px;\">Dr. Philip Lowe (RBA Governor) kept rates unchanged and kept the commentary neutral. He did however elude to the fact that should the current AUD strength continue, it is likely to weigh on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would result in a slower pick-up of economic activity and inflation than currently forecasted.</p>\r\nDo I read… AUD strength = a growth slowdown?\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective; I do think that the RBA would prefer a weaker currency (who wouldn’t). With the AUD/USD hitting an 0.8065, the orders for Prozac at the RBA would have increased. A break below 0.7840 (recent breakout level) would ease matters a great deal. Obviously, an AUD/USD exchange rate hovering between 0.7000 and 0.7500 would be preferred by the RBA.\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li>GBP: BOE and Carney Press Conference.Interest Rate on Hold\r\nMPC 6-2 vote\r\nGrowth forecasts revised lower.\r\nInflation to peak c.3% in October.\r\nInterest Rates may need TO RISE FASTER than markets imply.\r\nUncertainty about BREXIT will weigh on growth.\r\nWages growth market down from 3.5% to 3%.They were the key things that I noted from the Statement and Press Conference.\r\n\r\nIn addition, what made me giggle a bit was Carney’s multiple references to households and businesses taking the lead in reactions to BREXIT uncertainties. He noted that both households and business were taking BREXIT in their stride and that they were both expecting a smooth transition.\r\n\r\nFFS… my arse.\r\n\r\nHouseholds are more in debt than ever. Wages are not keeping growth in line with inflation. There is great uncertainty.\r\n\r\nBusinesses are using BREXIT as an excuse to limit wage rises on the back of “be grateful you have a job all things considered”.\r\n\r\nIs Threadneedle Street in a time warp?\r\n\r\nThese guys beggar belief. Carney stated that the BOE has spoken to ‘real” people about policies. Who are these people, the Chaps in the local pub in the city around the corner from the BOE?\r\n\r\nThe GBP however was whacked on the BOE statement and the following Press Conference and again on the NFP data, moving lower by almost 250 pips from its pre “Super Thursday” highs.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs Data.It was a small miss on the Canadian data, which, I suppose given how, of late Canadian data has nearly always been a beat was a little surprising. Personally, I welcomed this miss, as it has allowed the USD/CAD to rally (CAD to weaken). I have been waiting very patiently for an entry level short (This entry was posted to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers POS393). I feel that this level should be achieved early this week.The Trade Balance number at (-3.6 CAD$ Billion versus -1.3 CAD$ billion expected) was a little worrying… but one month does not make up a trend.\r\n\r\nI am firmly in the camp that the CAD has at least another leg lower and a big one at that.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.I suppose my position on the reaction to the data would be “The market was just too heavily positioned the wrong way… far too much USD weakness, and by the looks of things too many USD shorts.The data at 209k new jobs versus 181k predicted once again showed up the difference between ADP and NFP. ADP simply cannot be trusted as an indicator or a barometer when it comes to looking at forecasting NFP. Then again, only a fecking loony would forecast NFP, it\'s a bloody lottery when all said and done…but hang on…maybe it’s not a lottery. At least with a lottery you have a chance!\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers. After the analysts and experts crawled out from beneath their desks and realised this the USD started to strengthen in style (Over 100 points higher).\r\n\r\nWell over, +100 pip moves with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nThe usual suspects crawled out from under rocks to claim that the FED’s rate rise in December is possibility back on. FFS, HMOG, FGS, and JM&amp;J… we are in the middle of summer. Given the fact we have a clown in the White House, I would not be giving forward guidance on a damn thing more than a few hours ahead never mind a few months. I suppose these flutes are not in any way accountable for their predictions and they mostly have no skin in the game, so who cares what they say. In my opinion, this is one reason why CNBC ratings are falling faster than the cable at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe only person to listen to about FED activity in my opinion is Janet Yellen. Ignore the noise.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9820\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017-1024x888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"888\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Those awfully nice chaps at the RBNZ led by Governor Graeme “the dealer” Wheeler has my top pick of the week this week.As I type this, the memorandum will already be circulating at the RBNZ deciding on the choice of wine for this week’s Press Conference and whether to go for cheese or pate. All the local corporate hospitality companies have been moved from orange to red alert to ensure sufficient stemware is on hand. No swigging from the bottles at the RBNZ.On a more serious note...\r\n\r\nThe jobs data last week was a surprising miss. The Kiwi dollar back up at NZD/USD 0.7500 must have had Wheeler pissing conkers. Many traders / analysts / experts? had the NZD/USD trading at 0.7800 testing the May 2015 levels.\r\n\r\nNobody expects a rate move from the current 1.75%. It’s all about the commentary. Will Wheeler remain neutral or will he jawbone and go dovish trying to send the NZD/USD back towards 0.7000?\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago just prior to the latest drop in the USD, the NZD was showing signs of life to move sharply higher. A spokesperson from the RBNZ said basically “so what” 75%-80% of what the NZD/USD does exchange rate wise is out of the RBNZ control.\r\n\r\nOK… let’s roll out the same flute with the NZD/USD at 0.8000. Would the response be different? As sure as eggs are eggs it would be. There would be jawboning. As soon as dairy exports are threatened the RBNZ will act and like a good central bank they want stability. I would not rule out jawboning at this meeting just to keep the markets in check.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, Wheelers rate statement and his jawboning never seem to go in tandem. It’s like he speaks with this right hand and writes with his left and neither hand knows what the other hand has done or is doing.\r\n\r\nIt all adds together to give us a news event to follow with interest. The Rate statement is released at 5PM EST and the Press Conference takes place at 6PM EST this Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: PPi and CPi data is released this week. Given that the FED is off its normalization route at the moment (even with the better than expected NFP data). These news items may not have the usual effect on markets other than for 30 minutes or so after the data is released. The FED change and the summer may play a combined role here. Nevertheless, we should be aware of the results.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9821\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017-1024x845.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"845\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.1.1: YOUR <strong>BENEFITS</strong> OF SUBSCRIBING:</u>\r\n\r\nI am obviously biased in this section;\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, it is not just about market commentaries and suggested trade set ups. I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different from other providers in the Forex Market.\r\nHow have I created differentiation?\r\n\r\nI am a full-time Forex Trader of over 9 years.\r\nI trade my trades.\r\nI have SKIN in the game.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – not all service providers are traders. </strong>\r\n\r\nAll my suggested trades are communicated via Twitter through a secure / closed account and confirmed with more back up data for my trades through email. I tell you when I am getting in and I advise you if I am getting out. If you want to copy me you know what I am doing.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – Real time trading (24 x 5), regardless of time zone</strong>\r\n\r\nI am NOT an educator. I am a trader first and foremost, but I can help many traders become better at what they do\r\nForex Trading is repetition and to a large extent a daily routine and many times quite boring.\r\nTechnical trading of patterns and previous support and resistance levels, Pivot points and Fibonacci levels, they all work.\r\nI feel and my successes are based these indicators being used alongside fundamentals.\r\nFundamentals alone are not good enough in my opinion. They will eventually work but requires very, very deep pockets.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I live for my trades and pass this belief to subscribers</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI offer serious traders additional support such as “one-on-one” coaching: -\r\n\r\nIdentifying Chart Patterns\r\nWhat do candlestick patterns mean?\r\nWhat do single candlesticks signify?\r\nHow do I identify high probability trades?\r\nHow to Manage RISK\r\nHow to POSITION SIZE effectively\r\nEffective Account Management\r\nHow to achieve Market longevity.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I want to help you achieve a Trading success</strong>\r\n\r\nI provide Market Commentary – but only when there is something important to communicate about the markets or something that is on my mind to say.\r\nI tell it how it is from my perspective. I do my best to straight talking in every situation.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU - I remove the noise remain informative and focused</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive a “FULL VERSION” of this blog that includes sections on: -\r\nMy Market Trading Review (PREMIUM SERVICE progress)\r\nTechnical views plus Fundamental views and thoughts\r\nMarket Sentiment analysis\r\nCore Trades and Core Positions analysis\r\nA review of current LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – It’s open, honest, straight to the point and concise</strong>\r\n\r\nAnnual (Platinum) Subscribers receive, (if they want it) a personal monthly review via SKYPE or FaceTime of the PREMIUM SERVICE trades, an overview of the markets and my FUNDAMENTAL views / ideas moving forward.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I welcome interaction it feeds success</strong>\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs.\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 70% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +691 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,906 net pips\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.2.1: SUBSCRIBING NOW…  HAS BENEFITS:</u>\r\n\r\nEven though I am not producing a “DRIVE THRU” blog for the next three weeks, my subscription periods of 10, 20 or 40 weeks are based around the DRIVE THRU posts.\r\n\r\nTherefore subscribing now really means that your subscription does not start until 3rd September, three weeks’ time. However, between now and them, I am still trading therefore suggested set ups and twitter, email, in fact all communication is open.\r\n\r\nTherefore: -\r\n\r\nA 10-week CAD$500.00 subscription starts 3rd September and would complete on 12th November 2017.\r\n\r\nA 20-week CAD$800.00 subscription would start 3rd September and would complete on 10th February 2018.\r\n\r\nA 40-week CAD$1,250.00 Platinum subscription would start 3rd September and complete on 30th June 2018.\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week the PREMIUM SERVICE added +691 net pips. That I think was the biggest net pip haul in a week this year. Happy Days!!\r\n\r\nI had a few SKYPE sessions (Market Review and Training) over the past week or so. Some great feedback and some interesting ideas for me to mull over amongst other things over the next few weeks.\r\n\r\nWhilst this is the last blog until September, I will still be trading through the month and set-ups should still be coming through on a regular basis. The only caveat that I have is that it is the summer and moves are rather limiting to say the least, although, over the past couple of days we have seen some good moves, so maybe this year will be slightly different.\r\n\r\nWe have a TRUMP in the White House and he seems incapable of self-control so I guess he will always create news, which could affect the FX markets.\r\n\r\nDespite, a great initial return in pips this month so far, I am sticking to what I said last week. The market is difficult to follow as correlations and relationships are still askew.\r\n\r\nWe are at a RE-ALIGNMENT and until this pushes through properly through all markets we will to a large extent be in a state of flux.\r\n\r\nThere are a lot of consolidations in the markets at the moment. The longer we consolidate the less I am inclined to believe that the moves higher or lower were false breakouts or breakdowns.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD will lead the markets through this RE-STRUCTURE &amp; RE-ALIGNMENT if it fails to move beyond 1.2000, and subsequently consolidate there, I will question my overall thoughts regarding a RE-ALIGNMENT. However, with the ECB looking to normalize monetary policy sometime soon, I think that the markets are waiting to fire on all cylinders.\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nNow that NFP and BOE “Super Thursday” is out of the way, and we have recently heard from the FED, BOJ, RBA and BOC, we should have the basis of at least 60 days directional trading based upon Central Bank policies.\r\n\r\nThis coming week therefore my focus will be on “value entries”. I think that I must focus here based upon the fact we are in August.\r\n\r\nThe EUR cross rates look very attractive still to the long side; EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD. Nice pullback entries would be the order of the day.\r\nI also want to add to my position with the EUR/CHF trade on the basis that there are only round number resistances on the way back to 1.2000. I have three x CHF long trades at the moment and would have no problem adding more throughout the summer.\r\n\r\nAway from the EUR. The AUD looks very interesting especially on a breakdown through 0.7840 which was the breakout point.\r\n\r\nWith regards to cable; I am still more of a 1.2000 than a 1.3500 guy. I just don’t get this BREXIT complacency and all the shite talked about a HARD BREXIT versus a SOFT BREXIT. What a load of bollocks. The EUROZONE are NOT going to make BREXIT a walk in the park for one very simple reason… CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nFor now; I am waiting for a nice pullback entry which we will get to re-enter short once again. I am avoiding the GBP crosses at the moment, the GBP/CAD being the exception based on CAD and GBP direction / momentum on the weekly and monthly charts. They are in between levels and rather than waste time on these the EUR crosses offer a better return from analyzing time spent on charts.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to enter CAD short across the board with USD/CAD, CAD/JPY (already in place), GBP/CAD, AUD/USD, CHF/CAD and NZD/CAD trades. Not 100% on EUR/CAD given the single currency bullishness.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\nThis is a new addition to this section. The SHORT or LONG indicators in the excel sheet are based on buying and selling pressure algorithms averaged for the time periods. I use these from time to time for confirmation of a trade. In addition, when I see the Short, Medium and Long term periods in alignment this gives me more confidence vis-à-vis a trades direction and who is in control of the currency pair, the bears or the bulls.\r\n<u></u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MKT-SENT-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9822\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MKT-SENT-06082017-675x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"675\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nPrior to the “Debelle” comments from a couple of weeks ago this pair looked very constructive to the long side. It was whacked lower on the comments. Longer-term fair value for this pair is much higher.\r\n\r\nBasically, it is a slow mover but hopefully before I die it will be back into the 1.20’s again!\r\n\r\nI am going to persevere with this pair… I have for almost two years now!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCHF PAIRS: (Live)\r\n\r\nI am building this overall position. We have already taken c.180 pips from existing trades. I will be adding more positions as well as the additional POS trades added after NFP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD and EUR Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nAt some stage I am going to have to take the plunge and enter long EUR/USD and hold. At some stage this year the ECB is going to taper and normalize. I want to be in position sooner rather than later for this. In addition, it makes sense to add EUR cross rates as well.\r\n\r\nFollowing the NFP move, I now want to see this pair consolidate at lower levels before moving higher once again. This is the pullback that I was waiting for and it has come as a bit of a surprise. The market was very long the single currency, hopefully a lot of the longs will be shaken out with the NFP move and re-balance things a bit.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD and GBP Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nI am waiting on a pullback after the NFP data to set up a batch of shorts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIVE-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9824\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIVE-06082017-928x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"928\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIMIT-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9823\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIMIT-06082017-851x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"851\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nWHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWith a title like that it sounds like I have an end of the world type of prediction to follow… you are safe!\r\n\r\nWe are now into the sleepy summer. There are some risks, most of them are geopolitical.\r\n\r\nI have in the main over recent weeks been looking forward predicting a new world… CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE, RE-STRUCTURE, RE-ALIGNMENT of the markets and I still believe we are in the throes of this happening despite the recent 72 hours or so in the Forex Market.\r\n\r\nLet’s recap what happened in the immediate past: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Mark Carney (BOE, Governor), finally came out and said what needed to be said to put the damn bulls back in their boxes for at least this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>We had a blowout NFP number.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThat’s nothing earth shattering. Does the above change my thoughts and views that I have had for the past month or so?\r\n\r\nAbsolutely not; I was bearish and shorting the cable long before “Super Thursday”.\r\n\r\nDid I predict a good NFP?\r\n\r\nI don\'t do predictions and I doubt even David Copperfield or Penn &amp; Teller could magic up an accurate NFP number.\r\n\r\nWe are in transition.\r\n\r\nFrom this Monday I am on 50% leave for the summer until the 1st September. So, what is next?\r\n\r\nOver the next few weeks the big Forex event could be the Jackson Hole Symposium. Initially Mario Draghi (ECB, President) was going to use this event as the place he would talk about the timetable of events within the ECB for a return to interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nI am not so certain that he will do this. My thought process is basically due to the fact the markets are ready to leap on the back of the single currency and send it to outer space (in forex terms) about 1.2500-1.3000 if the mood takes them. Draghi would literally poop his pants if he thought the EUR/USD would be at 1.2500 in rapid order.\r\n\r\nWe have German elections this Autumn/Fall and whilst German savers would welcome normalization, I would say that EUROZONE exporters primarily based in Germany would be buying “Andrex” and the like, in Costco quantities on a daily basis, as the increase in liquid stools could potentially reach epidemic proportions. Sales of Imodium could go through the roof (This is not investment advice).\r\n\r\nGerman elections is one good reason why Mario Draghi may just provide some B.S. at Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nMy fear is that “THE DONALD” will create the next big move. It will of course be largely “not surprising” but it will be unpredictable from a timing viewpoint, even though we know about the potential of something happening.\r\n\r\nRight now, given all the geopolitical events in play around the world the markets are complacent. All the U.S. markets are concerned about are 401K valuations and returns, stock valuations mean feck all; we are on the brink once again in my opinion… (RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT).\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>What about China being declared a currency manipulator, now that they failed to intervene effectively with North Korea?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about China getting huge trade restrictions placed upon them by the U.S.?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea dropping an ICBN on Japan… by mistake or intentionally?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea taking aim on the continental United States?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about the Russian / U.S. diplomatic expulsion tit for tat getting out of control spilling over into troubles in the “Old Soviet Block?</li>\r\n 	<li>What happens if the Iran / U.S. nuclear deal blows up?</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP has sided with Saudi Arabia over the Qatar terrorism claims. What would happen if this dispute escalates and unsettles stability in the region and subsequently OIL production?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have only highlighted US based geopolitical related issues, as usually these would affect all markets to varying degrees. The chances of something happening could be 50-50 from my perspective, but who knows. I have ignored all the investigations and enquiries that shadow the TRUMP administration, these can just flare up at any time without warning, a tweet could kick it off.\r\n\r\nSo; what am I saying?\r\n\r\nJust be on your toes if you are trading over the next three or four weeks. Many traders are away. Many traders simply do not trade the summer.\r\n\r\nMost risks are similar to what we have every summer…  geopolitical. There are more flare up zones than the ones I have listed above, but I do feel that those areas with a TRUMP involvement are more at risk.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective as I have written earlier we are in the throes of a transition. There are entry “Gifts” as I call them on the horizon. Grab them; the EUR/USD in particular, but hold with wider stops than usual to allow for the very thin trading conditions with lower liquidity than usual.\r\n\r\nTake care, back on September 3rd.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #144 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 6th August 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9836-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-08-05 07:36:54', '2017-08-05 12:36:54', '', 9836, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9836-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(9840, 1, '2017-08-05 07:38:23', '2017-08-05 12:38:23', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI cannot believe that we are into August. This blog is the last one for a few weeks, I return with the “DRIVE THRU” blog on September 3rd, 2017.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note that trading will continue through the “DRIVE THRU” break. I do have one or two key domestic action items to fulfil during the break and I will alert you when these are in play.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BOE “Super Thursday” event is now behind us and despite advising the markets that tightening is on the way, it was obvious due to the reaction in cable falling from around 1.3260 to about 1.3110 in the hour or so after the news was released and Mark Carney’s subsequent press conference, that the markets had priced in a more hawkish BOE. I will cover this event a in little more detail later.\r\n\r\nLooking at money $$$...\r\n\r\nI covered lots of trades ahead of last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and added a positive +691 pips for the first few days of the month. It’s a great start and I am very quickly pulling back my pips shortfall from earlier in the year due to my house move followed almost immediately by a 4-week vacation. There is still some way to go to my 10,000-pip annual objective but I am now almost back to where my pips total should be for this time of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs Data.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px;\">The Kiwi has been struggling since the data was released mid-week. Job growth in New Zealand is flat-lining. In Q2 2017, employment fell by 0.2% It was up 1.2% the previous quarter and it was forecasted to be positive this quarter by 0.7%.\r\n\r\nIt was the first contraction in employment since Q3 2015. The participation rate also slid 0.6%.\r\n\r\nHaving only recently visited New Zealand both North and South Islands, the place was buzzing and the dynamics appeared very positive. However, beneath this outer crust and dynamism the wages environment is subdued. In this instance, New Zealand is no different to other developed countries, despite unemployment levels being at historic low levels, wages are just NOT picking up.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>AUD: RBA Rate Statement.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px;\">Dr. Philip Lowe (RBA Governor) kept rates unchanged and kept the commentary neutral. He did however elude to the fact that should the current AUD strength continue, it is likely to weigh on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would result in a slower pick-up of economic activity and inflation than currently forecasted.\r\n\r\nDo I read… AUD strength = a growth slowdown?\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective; I do think that the RBA would prefer a weaker currency (who wouldn’t). With the AUD/USD hitting an 0.8065, the orders for Prozac at the RBA would have increased. A break below 0.7840 (recent breakout level) would ease matters a great deal. Obviously, an AUD/USD exchange rate hovering between 0.7000 and 0.7500 would be preferred by the RBA.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li>GBP: BOE and Carney Press Conference.Interest Rate on Hold\r\nMPC 6-2 vote\r\nGrowth forecasts revised lower.\r\nInflation to peak c.3% in October.\r\nInterest Rates may need TO RISE FASTER than markets imply.\r\nUncertainty about BREXIT will weigh on growth.\r\nWages growth market down from 3.5% to 3%.They were the key things that I noted from the Statement and Press Conference.In addition, what made me giggle a bit was Carney’s multiple references to households and businesses taking the lead in reactions to BREXIT uncertainties. He noted that both households and business were taking BREXIT in their stride and that they were both expecting a smooth transition.\r\n\r\nFFS… my arse.\r\n\r\nHouseholds are more in debt than ever. Wages are not keeping growth in line with inflation. There is great uncertainty.\r\n\r\nBusinesses are using BREXIT as an excuse to limit wage rises on the back of “be grateful you have a job all things considered”.\r\n\r\nIs Threadneedle Street in a time warp?\r\n\r\nThese guys beggar belief. Carney stated that the BOE has spoken to ‘real” people about policies. Who are these people, the Chaps in the local pub in the city around the corner from the BOE?\r\n\r\nThe GBP however was whacked on the BOE statement and the following Press Conference and again on the NFP data, moving lower by almost 250 pips from its pre “Super Thursday” highs.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs Data.It was a small miss on the Canadian data, which, I suppose given how, of late Canadian data has nearly always been a beat was a little surprising. Personally, I welcomed this miss, as it has allowed the USD/CAD to rally (CAD to weaken). I have been waiting very patiently for an entry level short (This entry was posted to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers POS393). I feel that this level should be achieved early this week.The Trade Balance number at (-3.6 CAD$ Billion versus -1.3 CAD$ billion expected) was a little worrying… but one month does not make up a trend.I am firmly in the camp that the CAD has at least another leg lower and a big one at that.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.I suppose my position on the reaction to the data would be “The market was just too heavily positioned the wrong way… far too much USD weakness, and by the looks of things too many USD shorts.The data at 209k new jobs versus 181k predicted once again showed up the difference between ADP and NFP. ADP simply cannot be trusted as an indicator or a barometer when it comes to looking at forecasting NFP. Then again, only a fecking loony would forecast NFP, it\'s a bloody lottery when all said and done…but hang on…maybe it’s not a lottery. At least with a lottery you have a chance!Back on track…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers. After the analysts and experts crawled out from beneath their desks and realised this the USD started to strengthen in style (Over 100 points higher).\r\n\r\nWell over, +100 pip moves with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nThe usual suspects crawled out from under rocks to claim that the FED’s rate rise in December is possibility back on. FFS, HMOG, FGS, and JM&amp;J… we are in the middle of summer. Given the fact we have a clown in the White House, I would not be giving forward guidance on a damn thing more than a few hours ahead never mind a few months. I suppose these flutes are not in any way accountable for their predictions and they mostly have no skin in the game, so who cares what they say. In my opinion, this is one reason why CNBC ratings are falling faster than the cable at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe only person to listen to about FED activity in my opinion is Janet Yellen. Ignore the noise.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9820\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017-1024x888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"888\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Those awfully nice chaps at the RBNZ led by Governor Graeme “the dealer” Wheeler has my top pick of the week this week.As I type this, the memorandum will already be circulating at the RBNZ deciding on the choice of wine for this week’s Press Conference and whether to go for cheese or pate. All the local corporate hospitality companies have been moved from orange to red alert to ensure sufficient stemware is on hand. No swigging from the bottles at the RBNZ.On a more serious note...The jobs data last week was a surprising miss. The Kiwi dollar back up at NZD/USD 0.7500 must have had Wheeler pissing conkers. Many traders / analysts / experts? had the NZD/USD trading at 0.7800 testing the May 2015 levels.\r\n\r\nNobody expects a rate move from the current 1.75%. It’s all about the commentary. Will Wheeler remain neutral or will he jawbone and go dovish trying to send the NZD/USD back towards 0.7000?\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago just prior to the latest drop in the USD, the NZD was showing signs of life to move sharply higher. A spokesperson from the RBNZ said basically “so what” 75%-80% of what the NZD/USD does exchange rate wise is out of the RBNZ control.\r\n\r\nOK… let’s roll out the same flute with the NZD/USD at 0.8000. Would the response be different? As sure as eggs are eggs it would be. There would be jawboning. As soon as dairy exports are threatened the RBNZ will act and like a good central bank they want stability. I would not rule out jawboning at this meeting just to keep the markets in check.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, Wheelers rate statement and his jawboning never seem to go in tandem. It’s like he speaks with this right hand and writes with his left and neither hand knows what the other hand has done or is doing.\r\n\r\nIt all adds together to give us a news event to follow with interest. The Rate statement is released at 5PM EST and the Press Conference takes place at 6PM EST this Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: PPi and CPi data is released this week. Given that the FED is off its normalization route at the moment (even with the better than expected NFP data). These news items may not have the usual effect on markets other than for 30 minutes or so after the data is released. The FED change and the summer may play a combined role here. Nevertheless, we should be aware of the results.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9821\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017-1024x845.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"845\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.1.1: YOUR <strong>BENEFITS</strong> OF SUBSCRIBING:</u>\r\n\r\nI am obviously biased in this section;\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, it is not just about market commentaries and suggested trade set ups. I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different from other providers in the Forex Market.\r\nHow have I created differentiation?\r\n\r\nI am a full-time Forex Trader of over 9 years.\r\nI trade my trades.\r\nI have SKIN in the game.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – not all service providers are traders. </strong>\r\n\r\nAll my suggested trades are communicated via Twitter through a secure / closed account and confirmed with more back up data for my trades through email. I tell you when I am getting in and I advise you if I am getting out. If you want to copy me you know what I am doing.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – Real time trading (24 x 5), regardless of time zone</strong>\r\n\r\nI am NOT an educator. I am a trader first and foremost, but I can help many traders become better at what they do\r\nForex Trading is repetition and to a large extent a daily routine and many times quite boring.\r\nTechnical trading of patterns and previous support and resistance levels, Pivot points and Fibonacci levels, they all work.\r\nI feel and my successes are based these indicators being used alongside fundamentals.\r\nFundamentals alone are not good enough in my opinion. They will eventually work but requires very, very deep pockets.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I live for my trades and pass this belief to subscribers</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI offer serious traders additional support such as “one-on-one” coaching: -\r\n\r\nIdentifying Chart Patterns\r\nWhat do candlestick patterns mean?\r\nWhat do single candlesticks signify?\r\nHow do I identify high probability trades?\r\nHow to Manage RISK\r\nHow to POSITION SIZE effectively\r\nEffective Account Management\r\nHow to achieve Market longevity.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I want to help you achieve a Trading success</strong>\r\n\r\nI provide Market Commentary – but only when there is something important to communicate about the markets or something that is on my mind to say.\r\nI tell it how it is from my perspective. I do my best to straight talking in every situation.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU - I remove the noise remain informative and focused</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive a “FULL VERSION” of this blog that includes sections on: -\r\nMy Market Trading Review (PREMIUM SERVICE progress)\r\nTechnical views plus Fundamental views and thoughts\r\nMarket Sentiment analysis\r\nCore Trades and Core Positions analysis\r\nA review of current LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – It’s open, honest, straight to the point and concise</strong>\r\n\r\nAnnual (Platinum) Subscribers receive, (if they want it) a personal monthly review via SKYPE or FaceTime of the PREMIUM SERVICE trades, an overview of the markets and my FUNDAMENTAL views / ideas moving forward.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I welcome interaction it feeds success</strong>\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs.\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 70% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +691 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,906 net pips\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.2.1: SUBSCRIBING NOW…  HAS BENEFITS:</u>\r\n\r\nEven though I am not producing a “DRIVE THRU” blog for the next three weeks, my subscription periods of 10, 20 or 40 weeks are based around the DRIVE THRU posts.\r\n\r\nTherefore subscribing now really means that your subscription does not start until 3rd September, three weeks’ time. However, between now and them, I am still trading therefore suggested set ups and twitter, email, in fact all communication is open.\r\n\r\nTherefore: -\r\n\r\nA 10-week CAD$500.00 subscription starts 3rd September and would complete on 12th November 2017.\r\n\r\nA 20-week CAD$800.00 subscription would start 3rd September and would complete on 10th February 2018.\r\n\r\nA 40-week CAD$1,250.00 Platinum subscription would start 3rd September and complete on 30th June 2018.\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week the PREMIUM SERVICE added +691 net pips. That I think was the biggest net pip haul in a week this year. Happy Days!!\r\n\r\nI had a few SKYPE sessions (Market Review and Training) over the past week or so. Some great feedback and some interesting ideas for me to mull over amongst other things over the next few weeks.\r\n\r\nWhilst this is the last blog until September, I will still be trading through the month and set-ups should still be coming through on a regular basis. The only caveat that I have is that it is the summer and moves are rather limiting to say the least, although, over the past couple of days we have seen some good moves, so maybe this year will be slightly different.\r\n\r\nWe have a TRUMP in the White House and he seems incapable of self-control so I guess he will always create news, which could affect the FX markets.\r\n\r\nDespite, a great initial return in pips this month so far, I am sticking to what I said last week. The market is difficult to follow as correlations and relationships are still askew.\r\n\r\nWe are at a RE-ALIGNMENT and until this pushes through properly through all markets we will to a large extent be in a state of flux.\r\n\r\nThere are a lot of consolidations in the markets at the moment. The longer we consolidate the less I am inclined to believe that the moves higher or lower were false breakouts or breakdowns.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD will lead the markets through this RE-STRUCTURE &amp; RE-ALIGNMENT if it fails to move beyond 1.2000, and subsequently consolidate there, I will question my overall thoughts regarding a RE-ALIGNMENT. However, with the ECB looking to normalize monetary policy sometime soon, I think that the markets are waiting to fire on all cylinders.\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nNow that NFP and BOE “Super Thursday” is out of the way, and we have recently heard from the FED, BOJ, RBA and BOC, we should have the basis of at least 60 days directional trading based upon Central Bank policies.\r\n\r\nThis coming week therefore my focus will be on “value entries”. I think that I must focus here based upon the fact we are in August.\r\n\r\nThe EUR cross rates look very attractive still to the long side; EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD. Nice pullback entries would be the order of the day.\r\nI also want to add to my position with the EUR/CHF trade on the basis that there are only round number resistances on the way back to 1.2000. I have three x CHF long trades at the moment and would have no problem adding more throughout the summer.\r\n\r\nAway from the EUR. The AUD looks very interesting especially on a breakdown through 0.7840 which was the breakout point.\r\n\r\nWith regards to cable; I am still more of a 1.2000 than a 1.3500 guy. I just don’t get this BREXIT complacency and all the shite talked about a HARD BREXIT versus a SOFT BREXIT. What a load of bollocks. The EUROZONE are NOT going to make BREXIT a walk in the park for one very simple reason… CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nFor now; I am waiting for a nice pullback entry which we will get to re-enter short once again. I am avoiding the GBP crosses at the moment, the GBP/CAD being the exception based on CAD and GBP direction / momentum on the weekly and monthly charts. They are in between levels and rather than waste time on these the EUR crosses offer a better return from analyzing time spent on charts.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to enter CAD short across the board with USD/CAD, CAD/JPY (already in place), GBP/CAD, AUD/USD, CHF/CAD and NZD/CAD trades. Not 100% on EUR/CAD given the single currency bullishness.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\nThis is a new addition to this section. The SHORT or LONG indicators in the excel sheet are based on buying and selling pressure algorithms averaged for the time periods. I use these from time to time for confirmation of a trade. In addition, when I see the Short, Medium and Long term periods in alignment this gives me more confidence vis-à-vis a trades direction and who is in control of the currency pair, the bears or the bulls.\r\n<u></u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MKT-SENT-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9822\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MKT-SENT-06082017-675x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"675\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nPrior to the “Debelle” comments from a couple of weeks ago this pair looked very constructive to the long side. It was whacked lower on the comments. Longer-term fair value for this pair is much higher.\r\n\r\nBasically, it is a slow mover but hopefully before I die it will be back into the 1.20’s again!\r\n\r\nI am going to persevere with this pair… I have for almost two years now!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCHF PAIRS: (Live)\r\n\r\nI am building this overall position. We have already taken c.180 pips from existing trades. I will be adding more positions as well as the additional POS trades added after NFP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD and EUR Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nAt some stage I am going to have to take the plunge and enter long EUR/USD and hold. At some stage this year the ECB is going to taper and normalize. I want to be in position sooner rather than later for this. In addition, it makes sense to add EUR cross rates as well.\r\n\r\nFollowing the NFP move, I now want to see this pair consolidate at lower levels before moving higher once again. This is the pullback that I was waiting for and it has come as a bit of a surprise. The market was very long the single currency, hopefully a lot of the longs will be shaken out with the NFP move and re-balance things a bit.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD and GBP Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nI am waiting on a pullback after the NFP data to set up a batch of shorts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIVE-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9824\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIVE-06082017-928x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"928\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIMIT-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9823\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIMIT-06082017-851x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"851\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nWHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWith a title like that it sounds like I have an end of the world type of prediction to follow… you are safe!\r\n\r\nWe are now into the sleepy summer. There are some risks, most of them are geopolitical.\r\n\r\nI have in the main over recent weeks been looking forward predicting a new world… CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE, RE-STRUCTURE, RE-ALIGNMENT of the markets and I still believe we are in the throes of this happening despite the recent 72 hours or so in the Forex Market.\r\n\r\nLet’s recap what happened in the immediate past: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Mark Carney (BOE, Governor), finally came out and said what needed to be said to put the damn bulls back in their boxes for at least this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>We had a blowout NFP number.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThat’s nothing earth shattering. Does the above change my thoughts and views that I have had for the past month or so?\r\n\r\nAbsolutely not; I was bearish and shorting the cable long before “Super Thursday”.\r\n\r\nDid I predict a good NFP?\r\n\r\nI don\'t do predictions and I doubt even David Copperfield or Penn &amp; Teller could magic up an accurate NFP number.\r\n\r\nWe are in transition.\r\n\r\nFrom this Monday I am on 50% leave for the summer until the 1st September. So, what is next?\r\n\r\nOver the next few weeks the big Forex event could be the Jackson Hole Symposium. Initially Mario Draghi (ECB, President) was going to use this event as the place he would talk about the timetable of events within the ECB for a return to interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nI am not so certain that he will do this. My thought process is basically due to the fact the markets are ready to leap on the back of the single currency and send it to outer space (in forex terms) about 1.2500-1.3000 if the mood takes them. Draghi would literally poop his pants if he thought the EUR/USD would be at 1.2500 in rapid order.\r\n\r\nWe have German elections this Autumn/Fall and whilst German savers would welcome normalization, I would say that EUROZONE exporters primarily based in Germany would be buying “Andrex” and the like, in Costco quantities on a daily basis, as the increase in liquid stools could potentially reach epidemic proportions. Sales of Imodium could go through the roof (This is not investment advice).\r\n\r\nGerman elections is one good reason why Mario Draghi may just provide some B.S. at Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nMy fear is that “THE DONALD” will create the next big move. It will of course be largely “not surprising” but it will be unpredictable from a timing viewpoint, even though we know about the potential of something happening.\r\n\r\nRight now, given all the geopolitical events in play around the world the markets are complacent. All the U.S. markets are concerned about are 401K valuations and returns, stock valuations mean feck all; we are on the brink once again in my opinion… (RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT).\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>What about China being declared a currency manipulator, now that they failed to intervene effectively with North Korea?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about China getting huge trade restrictions placed upon them by the U.S.?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea dropping an ICBN on Japan… by mistake or intentionally?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea taking aim on the continental United States?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about the Russian / U.S. diplomatic expulsion tit for tat getting out of control spilling over into troubles in the “Old Soviet Block?</li>\r\n 	<li>What happens if the Iran / U.S. nuclear deal blows up?</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP has sided with Saudi Arabia over the Qatar terrorism claims. What would happen if this dispute escalates and unsettles stability in the region and subsequently OIL production?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have only highlighted US based geopolitical related issues, as usually these would affect all markets to varying degrees. The chances of something happening could be 50-50 from my perspective, but who knows. I have ignored all the investigations and enquiries that shadow the TRUMP administration, these can just flare up at any time without warning, a tweet could kick it off.\r\n\r\nSo; what am I saying?\r\n\r\nJust be on your toes if you are trading over the next three or four weeks. Many traders are away. Many traders simply do not trade the summer.\r\n\r\nMost risks are similar to what we have every summer…  geopolitical. There are more flare up zones than the ones I have listed above, but I do feel that those areas with a TRUMP involvement are more at risk.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective as I have written earlier we are in the throes of a transition. There are entry “Gifts” as I call them on the horizon. Grab them; the EUR/USD in particular, but hold with wider stops than usual to allow for the very thin trading conditions with lower liquidity than usual.\r\n\r\nTake care, back on September 3rd.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #144 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 6th August 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9836-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-08-05 07:38:23', '2017-08-05 12:38:23', '', 9836, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9836-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(9854, 1, '2017-08-05 09:06:30', '2017-08-05 14:06:30', '<strong>\r\n</strong><strong>\r\n1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nI cannot believe that we are into August. This blog is the last one for a few weeks, I return with the “DRIVE THRU” blog on September 3rd, 2017.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note that trading will continue through the “DRIVE THRU” break. I do have one or two key domestic action items to fulfil during the break and I will alert you when these are in play.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BOE “Super Thursday” event is now behind us and despite advising the markets that tightening is on the way, it was obvious due to the reaction in cable falling from around 1.3260 to about 1.3110 in the hour or so after the news was released and Mark Carney’s subsequent press conference, that the markets had priced in a more hawkish BOE. I will cover this event a in little more detail later.\r\n\r\nLooking at money $$$...\r\n\r\nI covered lots of trades ahead of last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and added a positive +691 pips for the first few days of the month. It’s a great start and I am very quickly pulling back my pips shortfall from earlier in the year due to my house move followed almost immediately by a 4-week vacation. There is still some way to go to my 10,000-pip annual objective but I am now almost back to where my pips total should be for this time of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs Data.The Kiwi has been struggling since the data was released mid-week. Job growth in New Zealand is flat-lining. In Q2 2017, employment fell by 0.2% It was up 1.2% the previous quarter and it was forecasted to be positive this quarter by 0.7%.It was the first contraction in employment since Q3 2015. The participation rate also slid 0.6%.Having only recently visited New Zealand both North and South Islands, the place was buzzing and the dynamics appeared very positive. However, beneath this outer crust and dynamism the wages environment is subdued. In this instance, New Zealand is no different to other developed countries, despite unemployment levels being at historic low levels, wages are just NOT picking up.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>AUD: RBA Rate Statement.Dr. Philip Lowe (RBA Governor) kept rates unchanged and kept the commentary neutral. He did however elude to the fact that should the current AUD strength continue, it is likely to weigh on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would result in a slower pick-up of economic activity and inflation than currently forecasted.Do I read… AUD strength = a growth slowdown?From a currency perspective; I do think that the RBA would prefer a weaker currency (who wouldn’t). With the AUD/USD hitting an 0.8065, the orders for Prozac at the RBA would have increased. A break below 0.7840 (recent breakout level) would ease matters a great deal. Obviously, an AUD/USD exchange rate hovering between 0.7000 and 0.7500 would be preferred by the RBA.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li>GBP: BOE and Carney Press Conference.Interest Rate on Hold\r\nMPC 6-2 vote\r\nGrowth forecasts revised lower.\r\nInflation to peak c.3% in October.\r\nInterest Rates may need TO RISE FASTER than markets imply.\r\nUncertainty about BREXIT will weigh on growth.\r\nWages growth market down from 3.5% to 3%.They were the key things that I noted from the Statement and Press Conference.In addition, what made me giggle a bit was Carney’s multiple references to households and businesses taking the lead in reactions to BREXIT uncertainties. He noted that both households and business were taking BREXIT in their stride and that they were both expecting a smooth transition.FFS… my arse.\r\n\r\nHouseholds are more in debt than ever. Wages are not keeping growth in line with inflation. There is great uncertainty.\r\n\r\nBusinesses are using BREXIT as an excuse to limit wage rises on the back of “be grateful you have a job all things considered”.\r\n\r\nIs Threadneedle Street in a time warp?\r\n\r\nThese guys beggar belief. Carney stated that the BOE has spoken to ‘real” people about policies. Who are these people, the Chaps in the local pub in the city around the corner from the BOE?\r\n\r\nThe GBP however was whacked on the BOE statement and the following Press Conference and again on the NFP data, moving lower by almost 250 pips from its pre “Super Thursday” highs.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs Data.It was a small miss on the Canadian data, which, I suppose given how, of late Canadian data has nearly always been a beat was a little surprising. Personally, I welcomed this miss, as it has allowed the USD/CAD to rally (CAD to weaken). I have been waiting very patiently for an entry level short (This entry was posted to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers POS393). I feel that this level should be achieved early this week.The Trade Balance number at (-3.6 CAD$ Billion versus -1.3 CAD$ billion expected) was a little worrying… but one month does not make up a trend.I am firmly in the camp that the CAD has at least another leg lower and a big one at that.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.I suppose my position on the reaction to the data would be “The market was just too heavily positioned the wrong way… far too much USD weakness, and by the looks of things too many USD shorts.The data at 209k new jobs versus 181k predicted once again showed up the difference between ADP and NFP. ADP simply cannot be trusted as an indicator or a barometer when it comes to looking at forecasting NFP. Then again, only a fecking loony would forecast NFP, it\'s a bloody lottery when all said and done…but hang on…maybe it’s not a lottery. At least with a lottery you have a chance!Back on track…Blow out numbers. After the analysts and experts crawled out from beneath their desks and realised this the USD started to strengthen in style (Over 100 points higher).\r\n\r\nWell over, +100 pip moves with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nThe usual suspects crawled out from under rocks to claim that the FED’s rate rise in December is possibility back on. FFS, HMOG, FGS, and JM&amp;J… we are in the middle of summer. Given the fact we have a clown in the White House, I would not be giving forward guidance on a damn thing more than a few hours ahead never mind a few months. I suppose these flutes are not in any way accountable for their predictions and they mostly have no skin in the game, so who cares what they say. In my opinion, this is one reason why CNBC ratings are falling faster than the cable at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe only person to listen to about FED activity in my opinion is Janet Yellen. Ignore the noise.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9820\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017-1024x888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"888\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Those awfully nice chaps at the RBNZ led by Governor Graeme “the dealer” Wheeler has my top pick of the week this week.As I type this, the memorandum will already be circulating at the RBNZ deciding on the choice of wine for this week’s Press Conference and whether to go for cheese or pate. All the local corporate hospitality companies have been moved from orange to red alert to ensure sufficient stemware is on hand. No swigging from the bottles at the RBNZ.On a more serious note...The jobs data last week was a surprising miss. The Kiwi dollar back up at NZD/USD 0.7500 must have had Wheeler pissing conkers. Many traders / analysts / experts? had the NZD/USD trading at 0.7800 testing the May 2015 levels.Nobody expects a rate move from the current 1.75%. It’s all about the commentary. Will Wheeler remain neutral or will he jawbone and go dovish trying to send the NZD/USD back towards 0.7000?\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago just prior to the latest drop in the USD, the NZD was showing signs of life to move sharply higher. A spokesperson from the RBNZ said basically “so what” 75%-80% of what the NZD/USD does exchange rate wise is out of the RBNZ control.\r\n\r\nOK… let’s roll out the same flute with the NZD/USD at 0.8000. Would the response be different? As sure as eggs are eggs it would be. There would be jawboning. As soon as dairy exports are threatened the RBNZ will act and like a good central bank they want stability. I would not rule out jawboning at this meeting just to keep the markets in check.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, Wheelers rate statement and his jawboning never seem to go in tandem. It’s like he speaks with this right hand and writes with his left and neither hand knows what the other hand has done or is doing.\r\n\r\nIt all adds together to give us a news event to follow with interest. The Rate statement is released at 5PM EST and the Press Conference takes place at 6PM EST this Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: PPi and CPi data is released this week. Given that the FED is off its normalization route at the moment (even with the better than expected NFP data). These news items may not have the usual effect on markets other than for 30 minutes or so after the data is released. The FED change and the summer may play a combined role here. Nevertheless, we should be aware of the results.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9821\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017-1024x845.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"845\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.1: YOUR BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:</u>\r\n\r\nI am obviously biased in this section;\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, it is not just about market commentaries and suggested trade set ups. I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different from other providers in the Forex Market.\r\nHow have I created differentiation?\r\n\r\nI am a full-time Forex Trader of over 9 years.\r\nI trade my trades.\r\nI have SKIN in the game.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – not all service providers are traders. </strong>\r\n\r\nAll my suggested trades are communicated via Twitter through a secure / closed account and confirmed with more back up data for my trades through email. I tell you when I am getting in and I advise you if I am getting out. If you want to copy me, I let you know what I am doing, when I am doing it.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – Real time trading (24 x 5), regardless of time zone</strong>\r\n\r\nI am NOT an educator. I am a trader first and foremost, but I can help many traders become better at what they do.\r\nForex Trading is repetition and to a large extent it is a daily routine and many times it is quite boring.\r\nTechnical trading of patterns, previous support and resistance levels, Pivot points and Fibonacci levels, they all work. I feel that my successes are based these indicators being used alongside fundamentals. If pushed, I would say that I am a fundamental trader. However, fundamentals alone are not good enough in my opinion. They will eventually work but requires very, very deep pockets. It is the combination of using fundamentals and technical analysis combined that is a winning formula; plus obviously identifying high probability trade set ups.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I live for my trades and pass this belief to subscribers</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI offer serious traders additional support such as “one-on-one” coaching: -\r\n\r\nIdentifying Chart Patterns\r\nWhat do candlestick patterns mean?\r\nWhat do single candlesticks signify?\r\nHow do I identify high probability trades?\r\nHow to Manage RISK?\r\nHow to POSITION SIZE effectively?\r\nEffective Account Management and\r\nHow to achieve Market longevity.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I want to help you achieve a Trading success</strong>\r\n\r\nI provide Market Commentary – but only when there is something important to communicate about the markets or something that is on my mind to say.\r\nI tell it how it is from my perspective. I do my best to straight talking in every situation.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU - I remove the noise remain informative and focused</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive a “FULL VERSION” of this blog that includes sections on: -\r\nMy Market Trading Review (PREMIUM SERVICE progress)\r\nTechnical views plus my fundamental opinions and thoughts moved forward\r\nMarket Sentiment analysis\r\nCore Trades and Core Positions analysis\r\nA review of current LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – It’s open, honest, straight to the point and concise</strong>\r\n\r\nAnnual (Platinum) Subscribers receive, (if they want it) a personal monthly review via SKYPE or FaceTime of the PREMIUM SERVICE trades, an overview of the markets and my FUNDAMENTAL views / ideas moving forward.<strong>\r\nBENEFIT FOR YOU – I welcome interaction it feeds success</strong>\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs.\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 70% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +691 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,906 net pips\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.2.1: SUBSCRIBING NOW…  HAS BENEFITS:</u>\r\n\r\nEven though I am not producing a “DRIVE THRU” blog for the next three weeks, my subscription periods of 10, 20 or 40 weeks are based around the DRIVE THRU posts.\r\n\r\nTherefore subscribing now really means that your subscription does not start until 3rd September, three weeks’ time. However, between now and them, I am still trading therefore suggested set ups and twitter, email, in fact all communication is open.\r\n\r\nTherefore: -\r\n\r\nA 10-week CAD$500.00 subscription starts 3rd September and would complete on 12th November 2017.\r\n\r\nA 20-week CAD$800.00 subscription would start 3rd September and would complete on 10th February 2018.\r\n\r\nA 40-week CAD$1,250.00 Platinum subscription would start 3rd September and complete on 30th June 2018.\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:</u>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nWHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWith a title like that it sounds like I have an end of the world type of prediction to follow… you are safe!\r\n\r\nWe are now into the sleepy summer. There are some risks, most of them are geopolitical.\r\n\r\nI have in the main over recent weeks been looking forward predicting a new world… CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE, RE-STRUCTURE, RE-ALIGNMENT of the markets and I still believe we are in the throes of this happening despite the recent 72 hours or so in the Forex Market.\r\n\r\nLet’s recap what happened in the immediate past: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Mark Carney (BOE, Governor), finally came out and said what needed to be said to put the damn bulls back in their boxes for at least this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>We had a blowout NFP number.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThat’s nothing earth shattering. Does the above change my thoughts and views that I have had for the past month or so?\r\n\r\nAbsolutely not; I was bearish and shorting the cable long before “Super Thursday”.\r\n\r\nDid I predict a good NFP?\r\n\r\nI don\'t do predictions and I doubt even David Copperfield or Penn &amp; Teller could magic up an accurate NFP number.\r\n\r\nWe are in transition.\r\n\r\nFrom this Monday I am on 50% leave for the summer until the 1st September. So, what is next?\r\n\r\nOver the next few weeks the big Forex event could be the Jackson Hole Symposium. Initially Mario Draghi (ECB, President) was going to use this event as the place he would talk about the timetable of events within the ECB for a return to interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nI am not so certain that he will do this. My thought process is basically due to the fact the markets are ready to leap on the back of the single currency and send it to outer space (in forex terms) about 1.2500-1.3000 if the mood takes them. Draghi would literally poop his pants if he thought the EUR/USD would be at 1.2500 in rapid order.\r\n\r\nWe have German elections this Autumn/Fall and whilst German savers would welcome normalization, I would say that EUROZONE exporters primarily based in Germany would be buying “Andrex” and the like, in Costco quantities on a daily basis, as the increase in liquid stools could potentially reach epidemic proportions. Sales of Imodium could go through the roof (This is not investment advice).\r\n\r\nGerman elections is one good reason why Mario Draghi may just provide some B.S. at Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nMy fear is that “THE DONALD” will create the next big move. It will of course be largely “not surprising” but it will be unpredictable from a timing viewpoint, even though we know about the potential of something happening.\r\n\r\nRight now, given all the geopolitical events in play around the world the markets are complacent. All the U.S. markets are concerned about are 401K valuations and returns, stock valuations mean feck all; we are on the brink once again in my opinion… (RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT).\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>What about China being declared a currency manipulator, now that they failed to intervene effectively with North Korea?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about China getting huge trade restrictions placed upon them by the U.S.?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea dropping an ICBN on Japan… by mistake or intentionally?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea taking aim on the continental United States?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about the Russian / U.S. diplomatic expulsion tit for tat getting out of control spilling over into troubles in the “Old Soviet Block?</li>\r\n 	<li>What happens if the Iran / U.S. nuclear deal blows up?</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP has sided with Saudi Arabia over the Qatar terrorism claims. What would happen if this dispute escalates and unsettles stability in the region and subsequently OIL production?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have only highlighted US based geopolitical related issues, as usually these would affect all markets to varying degrees. The chances of something happening could be 50-50 from my perspective, but who knows. I have ignored all the investigations and enquiries that shadow the TRUMP administration, these can just flare up at any time without warning, a tweet could kick it off.\r\n\r\nSo; what am I saying?\r\n\r\nJust be on your toes if you are trading over the next three or four weeks. Many traders are away. Many traders simply do not trade the summer.\r\n\r\nMost risks are similar to what we have every summer…  geopolitical. There are more flare up zones than the ones I have listed above, but I do feel that those areas with a TRUMP involvement are more at risk.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective as I have written earlier we are in the throes of a transition. There are entry “Gifts” as I call them on the horizon. Grab them; the EUR/USD in particular, but hold with wider stops than usual to allow for the very thin trading conditions with lower liquidity than usual.\r\n\r\nTake care, back on September 3rd.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 6th August 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'whats-next-recent-big-moves', '', '', '2018-02-15 07:11:34', '2018-02-15 12:11:34', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=9854', 0, 'post', '', 0),
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(9859, 1, '2017-08-06 05:58:58', '2017-08-06 10:58:58', '<strong>\n</strong><strong>\n1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\n\nI cannot believe that we are into August. This blog is the last one for a few weeks, I return with the “DRIVE THRU” blog on September 3rd, 2017.\n\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note that trading will continue through the “DRIVE THRU” break. I do have one or two key domestic action items to fulfil during the break and I will alert you when these are in play.\n\nMoving on…\n\nThe BOE “Super Thursday” event is now behind us and despite advising the markets that tightening is on the way, it was obvious due to the reaction in cable falling from around 1.3260 to about 1.3110 in the hour or so after the news was released and Mark Carney’s subsequent press conference, that the markets had priced in a more hawkish BOE. I will cover this event a in little more detail later.\n\nLooking at money $$$...\n\nI covered lots of trades ahead of last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and added a positive +691 pips for the first few days of the month. It’s a great start and I am very quickly pulling back my pips shortfall from earlier in the year due to my house move followed almost immediately by a 4-week vacation. There is still some way to go to my 10,000-pip annual objective but I am now almost back to where my pips total should be for this time of the year.\n\n&nbsp;\n<ol start=\"2\">\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\n</ol>\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\n<ol>\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs Data.The Kiwi has been struggling since the data was released mid-week. Job growth in New Zealand is flat-lining. In Q2 2017, employment fell by 0.2% It was up 1.2% the previous quarter and it was forecasted to be positive this quarter by 0.7%.\n\nIt was the first contraction in employment since Q3 2015. The participation rate also slid 0.6%.\n\nHaving only recently visited New Zealand both North and South Islands, the place was buzzing and the dynamics appeared very positive. However, beneath this outer crust and dynamism the wages environment is subdued. In this instance, New Zealand is no different to other developed countries, despite unemployment levels being at historic low levels, wages are just NOT picking up.</li>\n</ol>\n&nbsp;\n<ol start=\"2\">\n 	<li>AUD: RBA Rate Statement.Dr. Philip Lowe (RBA Governor) kept rates unchanged and kept the commentary neutral. He did however elude to the fact that should the current AUD strength continue, it is likely to weigh on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would result in a slower pick-up of economic activity and inflation than currently forecasted.\n\nDo I read… AUD strength = a growth slowdown?\n\nFrom a currency perspective; I do think that the RBA would prefer a weaker currency (who wouldn’t). With the AUD/USD hitting an 0.8065, the orders for Prozac at the RBA would have increased. A break below 0.7840 (recent breakout level) would ease matters a great deal. Obviously, an AUD/USD exchange rate hovering between 0.7000 and 0.7500 would be preferred by the RBA.</li>\n</ol>\n&nbsp;\n<ol start=\"3\">\n 	<li>GBP: BOE and Carney Press Conference.Interest Rate on Hold\nMPC 6-2 vote\nGrowth forecasts revised lower.\nInflation to peak c.3% in October.\nInterest Rates may need TO RISE FASTER than markets imply.\nUncertainty about BREXIT will weigh on growth.\nWages growth market down from 3.5% to 3%.\n\nThey were the key things that I noted from the Statement and Press Conference.\n\nIn addition, what made me giggle a bit was Carney’s multiple references to households and businesses taking the lead in reactions to BREXIT uncertainties. He noted that both households and business were taking BREXIT in their stride and that they were both expecting a smooth transition.\n\nFFS… my arse.\n\nHouseholds are more in debt than ever. Wages are not keeping growth in line with inflation. There is great uncertainty.\n\nBusinesses are using BREXIT as an excuse to limit wage rises on the back of “be grateful you have a job all things considered”.\n\nIs Threadneedle Street in a time warp?\n\nThese guys beggar belief. Carney stated that the BOE has spoken to ‘real” people about policies. Who are these people, the Chaps in the local pub in the city around the corner from the BOE?\n\nThe GBP however was whacked on the BOE statement and the following Press Conference and again on the NFP data, moving lower by almost 250 pips from its pre “Super Thursday” highs.</li>\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs Data.It was a small miss on the Canadian data, which, I suppose given how, of late Canadian data has nearly always been a beat was a little surprising. Personally, I welcomed this miss, as it has allowed the USD/CAD to rally (CAD to weaken). I have been waiting very patiently for an entry level short (This entry was posted to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers POS393). I feel that this level should be achieved early this week.\n\nThe Trade Balance number at (-3.6 CAD$ Billion versus -1.3 CAD$ billion expected) was a little worrying… but one month does not make up a trend.\n\nI am firmly in the camp that the CAD has at least another leg lower and a big one at that.</li>\n 	<li>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.I suppose my position on the reaction to the data would be “The market was just too heavily positioned the wrong way… far too much USD weakness, and by the looks of things too many USD shorts.\n\nThe data at 209k new jobs versus 181k predicted once again showed up the difference between ADP and NFP. ADP simply cannot be trusted as an indicator or a barometer when it comes to looking at forecasting NFP. Then again, only a fecking loony would forecast NFP, it\'s a bloody lottery when all said and done…but hang on…maybe it’s not a lottery. At least with a lottery you have a chance!\n\nBack on track…\n\nBlow out numbers. After the analysts and experts crawled out from beneath their desks and realised this the USD started to strengthen in style (Over 100 points higher).\n\nWell over, +100 pip moves with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.\n\nThe usual suspects crawled out from under rocks to claim that the FED’s rate rise in December is possibility back on. FFS, HMOG, FGS, and JM&amp;J… we are in the middle of summer. Given the fact we have a clown in the White House, I would not be giving forward guidance on a damn thing more than a few hours ahead never mind a few months. I suppose these flutes are not in any way accountable for their predictions and they mostly have no skin in the game, so who cares what they say. In my opinion, this is one reason why CNBC ratings are falling faster than the cable at the moment.\n\nThe only person to listen to about FED activity in my opinion is Janet Yellen. Ignore the noise.</li>\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\n</ol>\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9820\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017-1024x888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"888\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\n\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\n\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\n<ol>\n 	<li>NZD: Those awfully nice chaps at the RBNZ led by Governor Graeme “the dealer” Wheeler has my top pick of the week this week.As I type this, the memorandum will already be circulating at the RBNZ deciding on the choice of wine for this week’s Press Conference and whether to go for cheese or pate. All the local corporate hospitality companies have been moved from orange to red alert to ensure sufficient stemware is on hand. No swigging from the bottles at the RBNZ.\n\nOn a more serious note...\n\nThe jobs data last week was a surprising miss. The Kiwi dollar back up at NZD/USD 0.7500 must have had Wheeler pissing conkers. Many traders / analysts / experts? had the NZD/USD trading at 0.7800 testing the May 2015 levels.\n\nNobody expects a rate move from the current 1.75%. It’s all about the commentary. Will Wheeler remain neutral or will he jawbone and go dovish trying to send the NZD/USD back towards 0.7000?\n\nA couple of weeks ago just prior to the latest drop in the USD, the NZD was showing signs of life to move sharply higher. A spokesperson from the RBNZ said basically “so what” 75%-80% of what the NZD/USD does exchange rate wise is out of the RBNZ control.\n\nOK… let’s roll out the same flute with the NZD/USD at 0.8000. Would the response be different? As sure as eggs are eggs it would be. There would be jawboning. As soon as dairy exports are threatened the RBNZ will act and like a good central bank they want stability. I would not rule out jawboning at this meeting just to keep the markets in check.\n\nUnfortunately, Wheelers rate statement and his jawboning never seem to go in tandem. It’s like he speaks with this right hand and writes with his left and neither hand knows what the other hand has done or is doing.\n\nIt all adds together to give us a news event to follow with interest. The Rate statement is released at 5PM EST and the Press Conference takes place at 6PM EST this Wednesday.</li>\n 	<li>USD: PPi and CPi data is released this week. Given that the FED is off its normalization route at the moment (even with the better than expected NFP data). These news items may not have the usual effect on markets other than for 30 minutes or so after the data is released. The FED change and the summer may play a combined role here. Nevertheless, we should be aware of the results.</li>\n</ol>\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9821\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017-1024x845.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"845\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\n<strong>\n</strong>EUR/USD:\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\n\nGBP/USD:\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nAUD/USD:\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nNZD/USD:\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nUSD/CAD:\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nUSD/CHF:\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nUSD/JPY:\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n<ol start=\"4\">\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\n</ol>\n<strong> </strong>\n\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<u>4.1.1: YOUR BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:</u>\n\nI am obviously biased in this section;\n\nIn my opinion, it is not just about market commentaries and suggested trade set ups. I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different from other providers in the Forex Market.\nHow have I created differentiation?\n\nI am a full-time Forex Trader of over 9 years.\nI trade my trades.\nI have SKIN in the game.\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – not all service providers are traders. </strong>\n\nAll my suggested trades are communicated via Twitter through a secure / closed account and confirmed with more back up data for my trades through email. I tell you when I am getting in and I advise you if I am getting out. If you want to copy me, I let you know what I am doing, when I am doing it.\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – Real time trading (24 x 5), regardless of time zone</strong>\n\nI am NOT an educator. I am a trader first and foremost, but I can help many traders become better at what they do.\nForex Trading is repetition and to a large extent it is a daily routine and many times it is quite boring.\nTechnical trading of patterns, previous support and resistance levels, Pivot points and Fibonacci levels, they all work. I feel that my successes are based these indicators being used alongside fundamentals. If pushed, I would say that I am a fundamental trader. However, fundamentals alone are not good enough in my opinion. They will eventually work but requires very, very deep pockets. It is the combination of using fundamentals and technical analysis combined that is a winning formula; plus obviously identifying high probability trade set ups.\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I live for my trades and pass this belief to subscribers</strong><u>\n</u>\nI offer serious traders additional support such as “one-on-one” coaching: -\n\nIdentifying Chart Patterns\nWhat do candlestick patterns mean?\nWhat do single candlesticks signify?\nHow do I identify high probability trades?\nHow to Manage RISK\nHow to POSITION SIZE effectively\nEffective Account Management\nHow to achieve Market longevity.\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I want to help you achieve a Trading success</strong>\n\nI provide Market Commentary – but only when there is something important to communicate about the markets or something that is on my mind to say.\nI tell it how it is from my perspective. I do my best to straight talking in every situation.\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU - I remove the noise remain informative and focused</strong><u>\n</u>\n\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive a “FULL VERSION” of this blog that includes sections on: -\nMy Market Trading Review (PREMIUM SERVICE progress)\nTechnical views plus Fundamental views and thoughts\nMarket Sentiment analysis\nCore Trades and Core Positions analysis\nA review of current LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – It’s open, honest, straight to the point and concise</strong>\n\nAnnual (Platinum) Subscribers receive, (if they want it) a personal monthly review via SKYPE or FaceTime of the PREMIUM SERVICE trades, an overview of the markets and my FUNDAMENTAL views / ideas moving forward.<strong>\nBENEFIT FOR YOU – I welcome interaction it feeds success</strong>\n\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\n\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs.\n\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\n\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\n\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 70% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\n\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\n\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\nMONTH TO DATE:  +691 net pips\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,906 net pips\n\n<u>\n4.2.1: SUBSCRIBING NOW…  HAS BENEFITS:</u>\n\nEven though I am not producing a “DRIVE THRU” blog for the next three weeks, my subscription periods of 10, 20 or 40 weeks are based around the DRIVE THRU posts.\n\nTherefore subscribing now really means that your subscription does not start until 3rd September, three weeks’ time. However, between now and them, I am still trading therefore suggested set ups and twitter, email, in fact all communication is open.\n\nTherefore: -\n\nA 10-week CAD$500.00 subscription starts 3rd September and would complete on 12th November 2017.\n\nA 20-week CAD$800.00 subscription would start 3rd September and would complete on 10th February 2018.\n\nA 40-week CAD$1,250.00 Platinum subscription would start 3rd September and complete on 30th June 2018.\n<u>\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\n\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\n\nThis can be done as follows: -\n\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\n\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong> </strong>\n\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\n\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\n<u>\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:</u>\n\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:\n<u>\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\n\n<u>\n</u>\n\n<strong> </strong>\n<ol start=\"5\">\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\n</ol>\n<strong>\nWHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES</strong>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nWith a title like that it sounds like I have an end of the world type of prediction to follow… you are safe!\n\nWe are now into the sleepy summer. There are some risks, most of them are geopolitical.\n\nI have in the main over recent weeks been looking forward predicting a new world… CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE, RE-STRUCTURE, RE-ALIGNMENT of the markets and I still believe we are in the throes of this happening despite the recent 72 hours or so in the Forex Market.\n\nLet’s recap what happened in the immediate past: -\n<ul>\n 	<li>Mark Carney (BOE, Governor), finally came out and said what needed to be said to put the damn bulls back in their boxes for at least this year.</li>\n 	<li>We had a blowout NFP number.</li>\n</ul>\nThat’s nothing earth shattering. Does the above change my thoughts and views that I have had for the past month or so?\n\nAbsolutely not; I was bearish and shorting the cable long before “Super Thursday”.\n\nDid I predict a good NFP?\n\nI don\'t do predictions and I doubt even David Copperfield or Penn &amp; Teller could magic up an accurate NFP number.\n\nWe are in transition.\n\nFrom this Monday I am on 50% leave for the summer until the 1st September. So, what is next?\n\nOver the next few weeks the big Forex event could be the Jackson Hole Symposium. Initially Mario Draghi (ECB, President) was going to use this event as the place he would talk about the timetable of events within the ECB for a return to interest rate normalization.\n\nI am not so certain that he will do this. My thought process is basically due to the fact the markets are ready to leap on the back of the single currency and send it to outer space (in forex terms) about 1.2500-1.3000 if the mood takes them. Draghi would literally poop his pants if he thought the EUR/USD would be at 1.2500 in rapid order.\n\nWe have German elections this Autumn/Fall and whilst German savers would welcome normalization, I would say that EUROZONE exporters primarily based in Germany would be buying “Andrex” and the like, in Costco quantities on a daily basis, as the increase in liquid stools could potentially reach epidemic proportions. Sales of Imodium could go through the roof (This is not investment advice).\n\nGerman elections is one good reason why Mario Draghi may just provide some B.S. at Jackson Hole.\n\nMy fear is that “THE DONALD” will create the next big move. It will of course be largely “not surprising” but it will be unpredictable from a timing viewpoint, even though we know about the potential of something happening.\n\nRight now, given all the geopolitical events in play around the world the markets are complacent. All the U.S. markets are concerned about are 401K valuations and returns, stock valuations mean feck all; we are on the brink once again in my opinion… (RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT).\n<ul>\n 	<li>What about China being declared a currency manipulator, now that they failed to intervene effectively with North Korea?</li>\n 	<li>What about China getting huge trade restrictions placed upon them by the U.S.?</li>\n 	<li>What about North Korea dropping an ICBN on Japan… by mistake or intentionally?</li>\n 	<li>What about North Korea taking aim on the continental United States?</li>\n 	<li>What about the Russian / U.S. diplomatic expulsion tit for tat getting out of control spilling over into troubles in the “Old Soviet Block?</li>\n 	<li>What happens if the Iran / U.S. nuclear deal blows up?</li>\n 	<li>TRUMP has sided with Saudi Arabia over the Qatar terrorism claims. What would happen if this dispute escalates and unsettles stability in the region and subsequently OIL production?</li>\n</ul>\nI have only highlighted US based geopolitical related issues, as usually these would affect all markets to varying degrees. The chances of something happening could be 50-50 from my perspective, but who knows. I have ignored all the investigations and enquiries that shadow the TRUMP administration, these can just flare up at any time without warning, a tweet could kick it off.\n\nSo; what am I saying?\n\nJust be on your toes if you are trading over the next three or four weeks. Many traders are away. Many traders simply do not trade the summer.\n\nMost risks are similar to what we have every summer…  geopolitical. There are more flare up zones than the ones I have listed above, but I do feel that those areas with a TRUMP involvement are more at risk.\n\nFrom a trading perspective as I have written earlier we are in the throes of a transition. There are entry “Gifts” as I call them on the horizon. Grab them; the EUR/USD in particular, but hold with wider stops than usual to allow for the very thin trading conditions with lower liquidity than usual.\n\nTake care, back on September 3rd.\n\n&nbsp;\n<ol start=\"6\">\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\n</ol>\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\n\nAs usual…\n\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\n\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\n\nBLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER\nDATE: 6th August 2017.\n\n&nbsp;', 'WHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9854-autosave-v1', '', '', '2017-08-06 05:58:58', '2017-08-06 10:58:58', '', 9854, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9854-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(9860, 1, '2017-08-06 06:00:35', '2017-08-06 11:00:35', '<strong>\r\n</strong><strong>\r\n1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nI cannot believe that we are into August. This blog is the last one for a few weeks, I return with the “DRIVE THRU” blog on September 3rd, 2017.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note that trading will continue through the “DRIVE THRU” break. I do have one or two key domestic action items to fulfil during the break and I will alert you when these are in play.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BOE “Super Thursday” event is now behind us and despite advising the markets that tightening is on the way, it was obvious due to the reaction in cable falling from around 1.3260 to about 1.3110 in the hour or so after the news was released and Mark Carney’s subsequent press conference, that the markets had priced in a more hawkish BOE. I will cover this event a in little more detail later.\r\n\r\nLooking at money $$$...\r\n\r\nI covered lots of trades ahead of last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and added a positive +691 pips for the first few days of the month. It’s a great start and I am very quickly pulling back my pips shortfall from earlier in the year due to my house move followed almost immediately by a 4-week vacation. There is still some way to go to my 10,000-pip annual objective but I am now almost back to where my pips total should be for this time of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs Data.The Kiwi has been struggling since the data was released mid-week. Job growth in New Zealand is flat-lining. In Q2 2017, employment fell by 0.2% It was up 1.2% the previous quarter and it was forecasted to be positive this quarter by 0.7%.\r\n\r\nIt was the first contraction in employment since Q3 2015. The participation rate also slid 0.6%.\r\n\r\nHaving only recently visited New Zealand both North and South Islands, the place was buzzing and the dynamics appeared very positive. However, beneath this outer crust and dynamism the wages environment is subdued. In this instance, New Zealand is no different to other developed countries, despite unemployment levels being at historic low levels, wages are just NOT picking up.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>AUD: RBA Rate Statement.Dr. Philip Lowe (RBA Governor) kept rates unchanged and kept the commentary neutral. He did however elude to the fact that should the current AUD strength continue, it is likely to weigh on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would result in a slower pick-up of economic activity and inflation than currently forecasted.\r\n\r\nDo I read… AUD strength = a growth slowdown?\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective; I do think that the RBA would prefer a weaker currency (who wouldn’t). With the AUD/USD hitting an 0.8065, the orders for Prozac at the RBA would have increased. A break below 0.7840 (recent breakout level) would ease matters a great deal. Obviously, an AUD/USD exchange rate hovering between 0.7000 and 0.7500 would be preferred by the RBA.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li>GBP: BOE and Carney Press Conference.Interest Rate on Hold\r\nMPC 6-2 vote\r\nGrowth forecasts revised lower.\r\nInflation to peak c.3% in October.\r\nInterest Rates may need TO RISE FASTER than markets imply.\r\nUncertainty about BREXIT will weigh on growth.\r\nWages growth market down from 3.5% to 3%.\r\n\r\nThey were the key things that I noted from the Statement and Press Conference.\r\n\r\nIn addition, what made me giggle a bit was Carney’s multiple references to households and businesses taking the lead in reactions to BREXIT uncertainties. He noted that both households and business were taking BREXIT in their stride and that they were both expecting a smooth transition.\r\n\r\nFFS… my arse.\r\n\r\nHouseholds are more in debt than ever. Wages are not keeping growth in line with inflation. There is great uncertainty.\r\n\r\nBusinesses are using BREXIT as an excuse to limit wage rises on the back of “be grateful you have a job all things considered”.\r\n\r\nIs Threadneedle Street in a time warp?\r\n\r\nThese guys beggar belief. Carney stated that the BOE has spoken to ‘real” people about policies. Who are these people, the Chaps in the local pub in the city around the corner from the BOE?\r\n\r\nThe GBP however was whacked on the BOE statement and the following Press Conference and again on the NFP data, moving lower by almost 250 pips from its pre “Super Thursday” highs.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs Data.It was a small miss on the Canadian data, which, I suppose given how, of late Canadian data has nearly always been a beat was a little surprising. Personally, I welcomed this miss, as it has allowed the USD/CAD to rally (CAD to weaken). I have been waiting very patiently for an entry level short (This entry was posted to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers POS393). I feel that this level should be achieved early this week.\r\n\r\nThe Trade Balance number at (-3.6 CAD$ Billion versus -1.3 CAD$ billion expected) was a little worrying… but one month does not make up a trend.\r\n\r\nI am firmly in the camp that the CAD has at least another leg lower and a big one at that.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.I suppose my position on the reaction to the data would be “The market was just too heavily positioned the wrong way… far too much USD weakness, and by the looks of things too many USD shorts.\r\n\r\nThe data at 209k new jobs versus 181k predicted once again showed up the difference between ADP and NFP. ADP simply cannot be trusted as an indicator or a barometer when it comes to looking at forecasting NFP. Then again, only a fecking loony would forecast NFP, it\'s a bloody lottery when all said and done…but hang on…maybe it’s not a lottery. At least with a lottery you have a chance!\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers. After the analysts and experts crawled out from beneath their desks and realised this the USD started to strengthen in style (Over 100 points higher).\r\n\r\nWell over, +100 pip moves with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nThe usual suspects crawled out from under rocks to claim that the FED’s rate rise in December is possibility back on. FFS, HMOG, FGS, and JM&amp;J… we are in the middle of summer. Given the fact we have a clown in the White House, I would not be giving forward guidance on a damn thing more than a few hours ahead never mind a few months. I suppose these flutes are not in any way accountable for their predictions and they mostly have no skin in the game, so who cares what they say. In my opinion, this is one reason why CNBC ratings are falling faster than the cable at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe only person to listen to about FED activity in my opinion is Janet Yellen. Ignore the noise.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9820\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017-1024x888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"888\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Those awfully nice chaps at the RBNZ led by Governor Graeme “the dealer” Wheeler has my top pick of the week this week.As I type this, the memorandum will already be circulating at the RBNZ deciding on the choice of wine for this week’s Press Conference and whether to go for cheese or pate. All the local corporate hospitality companies have been moved from orange to red alert to ensure sufficient stemware is on hand. No swigging from the bottles at the RBNZ.\r\n\r\nOn a more serious note...\r\n\r\nThe jobs data last week was a surprising miss. The Kiwi dollar back up at NZD/USD 0.7500 must have had Wheeler pissing conkers. Many traders / analysts / experts? had the NZD/USD trading at 0.7800 testing the May 2015 levels.\r\n\r\nNobody expects a rate move from the current 1.75%. It’s all about the commentary. Will Wheeler remain neutral or will he jawbone and go dovish trying to send the NZD/USD back towards 0.7000?\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago just prior to the latest drop in the USD, the NZD was showing signs of life to move sharply higher. A spokesperson from the RBNZ said basically “so what” 75%-80% of what the NZD/USD does exchange rate wise is out of the RBNZ control.\r\n\r\nOK… let’s roll out the same flute with the NZD/USD at 0.8000. Would the response be different? As sure as eggs are eggs it would be. There would be jawboning. As soon as dairy exports are threatened the RBNZ will act and like a good central bank they want stability. I would not rule out jawboning at this meeting just to keep the markets in check.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, Wheelers rate statement and his jawboning never seem to go in tandem. It’s like he speaks with this right hand and writes with his left and neither hand knows what the other hand has done or is doing.\r\n\r\nIt all adds together to give us a news event to follow with interest. The Rate statement is released at 5PM EST and the Press Conference takes place at 6PM EST this Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: PPi and CPi data is released this week. Given that the FED is off its normalization route at the moment (even with the better than expected NFP data). These news items may not have the usual effect on markets other than for 30 minutes or so after the data is released. The FED change and the summer may play a combined role here. Nevertheless, we should be aware of the results.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9821\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017-1024x845.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"845\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.1: YOUR BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:</u>\r\n\r\nI am obviously biased in this section;\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, it is not just about market commentaries and suggested trade set ups. I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different from other providers in the Forex Market.\r\nHow have I created differentiation?\r\n\r\nI am a full-time Forex Trader of over 9 years.\r\nI trade my trades.\r\nI have SKIN in the game.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – not all service providers are traders. </strong>\r\n\r\nAll my suggested trades are communicated via Twitter through a secure / closed account and confirmed with more back up data for my trades through email. I tell you when I am getting in and I advise you if I am getting out. If you want to copy me, I let you know what I am doing, when I am doing it.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – Real time trading (24 x 5), regardless of time zone</strong>\r\n\r\nI am NOT an educator. I am a trader first and foremost, but I can help many traders become better at what they do.\r\nForex Trading is repetition and to a large extent it is a daily routine and many times it is quite boring.\r\nTechnical trading of patterns, previous support and resistance levels, Pivot points and Fibonacci levels, they all work. I feel that my successes are based these indicators being used alongside fundamentals. If pushed, I would say that I am a fundamental trader. However, fundamentals alone are not good enough in my opinion. They will eventually work but requires very, very deep pockets. It is the combination of using fundamentals and technical analysis combined that is a winning formula; plus obviously identifying high probability trade set ups.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I live for my trades and pass this belief to subscribers</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI offer serious traders additional support such as “one-on-one” coaching: -\r\n\r\nIdentifying Chart Patterns\r\nWhat do candlestick patterns mean?\r\nWhat do single candlesticks signify?\r\nHow do I identify high probability trades?\r\nHow to Manage RISK?\r\nHow to POSITION SIZE effectively?\r\nEffective Account Management andmy f\r\nHow to achieve Market longevity.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I want to help you achieve a Trading success</strong>\r\n\r\nI provide Market Commentary – but only when there is something important to communicate about the markets or something that is on my mind to say.\r\nI tell it how it is from my perspective. I do my best to straight talking in every situation.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU - I remove the noise remain informative and focused</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive a “FULL VERSION” of this blog that includes sections on: -\r\nMy Market Trading Review (PREMIUM SERVICE progress)\r\nTechnical views plus fundamental opinions and thoughts moved forward\r\nMarket Sentiment analysis\r\nCore Trades and Core Positions analysis\r\nA review of current LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – It’s open, honest, straight to the point and concise</strong>\r\n\r\nAnnual (Platinum) Subscribers receive, (if they want it) a personal monthly review via SKYPE or FaceTime of the PREMIUM SERVICE trades, an overview of the markets and my FUNDAMENTAL views / ideas moving forward.<strong>\r\nBENEFIT FOR YOU – I welcome interaction it feeds success</strong>\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs.\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 70% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +691 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,906 net pips\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.2.1: SUBSCRIBING NOW…  HAS BENEFITS:</u>\r\n\r\nEven though I am not producing a “DRIVE THRU” blog for the next three weeks, my subscription periods of 10, 20 or 40 weeks are based around the DRIVE THRU posts.\r\n\r\nTherefore subscribing now really means that your subscription does not start until 3rd September, three weeks’ time. However, between now and them, I am still trading therefore suggested set ups and twitter, email, in fact all communication is open.\r\n\r\nTherefore: -\r\n\r\nA 10-week CAD$500.00 subscription starts 3rd September and would complete on 12th November 2017.\r\n\r\nA 20-week CAD$800.00 subscription would start 3rd September and would complete on 10th February 2018.\r\n\r\nA 40-week CAD$1,250.00 Platinum subscription would start 3rd September and complete on 30th June 2018.\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:</u>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nWHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWith a title like that it sounds like I have an end of the world type of prediction to follow… you are safe!\r\n\r\nWe are now into the sleepy summer. There are some risks, most of them are geopolitical.\r\n\r\nI have in the main over recent weeks been looking forward predicting a new world… CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE, RE-STRUCTURE, RE-ALIGNMENT of the markets and I still believe we are in the throes of this happening despite the recent 72 hours or so in the Forex Market.\r\n\r\nLet’s recap what happened in the immediate past: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Mark Carney (BOE, Governor), finally came out and said what needed to be said to put the damn bulls back in their boxes for at least this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>We had a blowout NFP number.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThat’s nothing earth shattering. Does the above change my thoughts and views that I have had for the past month or so?\r\n\r\nAbsolutely not; I was bearish and shorting the cable long before “Super Thursday”.\r\n\r\nDid I predict a good NFP?\r\n\r\nI don\'t do predictions and I doubt even David Copperfield or Penn &amp; Teller could magic up an accurate NFP number.\r\n\r\nWe are in transition.\r\n\r\nFrom this Monday I am on 50% leave for the summer until the 1st September. So, what is next?\r\n\r\nOver the next few weeks the big Forex event could be the Jackson Hole Symposium. Initially Mario Draghi (ECB, President) was going to use this event as the place he would talk about the timetable of events within the ECB for a return to interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nI am not so certain that he will do this. My thought process is basically due to the fact the markets are ready to leap on the back of the single currency and send it to outer space (in forex terms) about 1.2500-1.3000 if the mood takes them. Draghi would literally poop his pants if he thought the EUR/USD would be at 1.2500 in rapid order.\r\n\r\nWe have German elections this Autumn/Fall and whilst German savers would welcome normalization, I would say that EUROZONE exporters primarily based in Germany would be buying “Andrex” and the like, in Costco quantities on a daily basis, as the increase in liquid stools could potentially reach epidemic proportions. Sales of Imodium could go through the roof (This is not investment advice).\r\n\r\nGerman elections is one good reason why Mario Draghi may just provide some B.S. at Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nMy fear is that “THE DONALD” will create the next big move. It will of course be largely “not surprising” but it will be unpredictable from a timing viewpoint, even though we know about the potential of something happening.\r\n\r\nRight now, given all the geopolitical events in play around the world the markets are complacent. All the U.S. markets are concerned about are 401K valuations and returns, stock valuations mean feck all; we are on the brink once again in my opinion… (RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT).\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>What about China being declared a currency manipulator, now that they failed to intervene effectively with North Korea?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about China getting huge trade restrictions placed upon them by the U.S.?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea dropping an ICBN on Japan… by mistake or intentionally?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea taking aim on the continental United States?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about the Russian / U.S. diplomatic expulsion tit for tat getting out of control spilling over into troubles in the “Old Soviet Block?</li>\r\n 	<li>What happens if the Iran / U.S. nuclear deal blows up?</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP has sided with Saudi Arabia over the Qatar terrorism claims. What would happen if this dispute escalates and unsettles stability in the region and subsequently OIL production?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have only highlighted US based geopolitical related issues, as usually these would affect all markets to varying degrees. The chances of something happening could be 50-50 from my perspective, but who knows. I have ignored all the investigations and enquiries that shadow the TRUMP administration, these can just flare up at any time without warning, a tweet could kick it off.\r\n\r\nSo; what am I saying?\r\n\r\nJust be on your toes if you are trading over the next three or four weeks. Many traders are away. Many traders simply do not trade the summer.\r\n\r\nMost risks are similar to what we have every summer…  geopolitical. There are more flare up zones than the ones I have listed above, but I do feel that those areas with a TRUMP involvement are more at risk.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective as I have written earlier we are in the throes of a transition. There are entry “Gifts” as I call them on the horizon. Grab them; the EUR/USD in particular, but hold with wider stops than usual to allow for the very thin trading conditions with lower liquidity than usual.\r\n\r\nTake care, back on September 3rd.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 6th August 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9854-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-08-06 06:00:35', '2017-08-06 11:00:35', '', 9854, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9854-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(9861, 1, '2017-08-06 06:02:35', '2017-08-06 11:02:35', '<strong>\r\n</strong><strong>\r\n1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nI cannot believe that we are into August. This blog is the last one for a few weeks, I return with the “DRIVE THRU” blog on September 3rd, 2017.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note that trading will continue through the “DRIVE THRU” break. I do have one or two key domestic action items to fulfil during the break and I will alert you when these are in play.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BOE “Super Thursday” event is now behind us and despite advising the markets that tightening is on the way, it was obvious due to the reaction in cable falling from around 1.3260 to about 1.3110 in the hour or so after the news was released and Mark Carney’s subsequent press conference, that the markets had priced in a more hawkish BOE. I will cover this event a in little more detail later.\r\n\r\nLooking at money $$$...\r\n\r\nI covered lots of trades ahead of last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and added a positive +691 pips for the first few days of the month. It’s a great start and I am very quickly pulling back my pips shortfall from earlier in the year due to my house move followed almost immediately by a 4-week vacation. There is still some way to go to my 10,000-pip annual objective but I am now almost back to where my pips total should be for this time of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs Data.The Kiwi has been struggling since the data was released mid-week. Job growth in New Zealand is flat-lining. In Q2 2017, employment fell by 0.2% It was up 1.2% the previous quarter and it was forecasted to be positive this quarter by 0.7%.It was the first contraction in employment since Q3 2015. The participation rate also slid 0.6%.\r\n\r\nHaving only recently visited New Zealand both North and South Islands, the place was buzzing and the dynamics appeared very positive. However, beneath this outer crust and dynamism the wages environment is subdued. In this instance, New Zealand is no different to other developed countries, despite unemployment levels being at historic low levels, wages are just NOT picking up.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>AUD: RBA Rate Statement.Dr. Philip Lowe (RBA Governor) kept rates unchanged and kept the commentary neutral. He did however elude to the fact that should the current AUD strength continue, it is likely to weigh on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would result in a slower pick-up of economic activity and inflation than currently forecasted.Do I read… AUD strength = a growth slowdown?\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective; I do think that the RBA would prefer a weaker currency (who wouldn’t). With the AUD/USD hitting an 0.8065, the orders for Prozac at the RBA would have increased. A break below 0.7840 (recent breakout level) would ease matters a great deal. Obviously, an AUD/USD exchange rate hovering between 0.7000 and 0.7500 would be preferred by the RBA.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li>GBP: BOE and Carney Press Conference.Interest Rate on Hold\r\nMPC 6-2 vote\r\nGrowth forecasts revised lower.\r\nInflation to peak c.3% in October.\r\nInterest Rates may need TO RISE FASTER than markets imply.\r\nUncertainty about BREXIT will weigh on growth.\r\nWages growth market down from 3.5% to 3%.They were the key things that I noted from the Statement and Press Conference.\r\n\r\nIn addition, what made me giggle a bit was Carney’s multiple references to households and businesses taking the lead in reactions to BREXIT uncertainties. He noted that both households and business were taking BREXIT in their stride and that they were both expecting a smooth transition.\r\n\r\nFFS… my arse.\r\n\r\nHouseholds are more in debt than ever. Wages are not keeping growth in line with inflation. There is great uncertainty.\r\n\r\nBusinesses are using BREXIT as an excuse to limit wage rises on the back of “be grateful you have a job all things considered”.\r\n\r\nIs Threadneedle Street in a time warp?\r\n\r\nThese guys beggar belief. Carney stated that the BOE has spoken to ‘real” people about policies. Who are these people, the Chaps in the local pub in the city around the corner from the BOE?\r\n\r\nThe GBP however was whacked on the BOE statement and the following Press Conference and again on the NFP data, moving lower by almost 250 pips from its pre “Super Thursday” highs.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs Data.It was a small miss on the Canadian data, which, I suppose given how, of late Canadian data has nearly always been a beat was a little surprising. Personally, I welcomed this miss, as it has allowed the USD/CAD to rally (CAD to weaken). I have been waiting very patiently for an entry level short (This entry was posted to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers POS393). I feel that this level should be achieved early this week.The Trade Balance number at (-3.6 CAD$ Billion versus -1.3 CAD$ billion expected) was a little worrying… but one month does not make up a trend.\r\n\r\nI am firmly in the camp that the CAD has at least another leg lower and a big one at that.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.I suppose my position on the reaction to the data would be “The market was just too heavily positioned the wrong way… far too much USD weakness, and by the looks of things too many USD shorts.The data at 209k new jobs versus 181k predicted once again showed up the difference between ADP and NFP. ADP simply cannot be trusted as an indicator or a barometer when it comes to looking at forecasting NFP. Then again, only a fecking loony would forecast NFP, it\'s a bloody lottery when all said and done…but hang on…maybe it’s not a lottery. At least with a lottery you have a chance!\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers. After the analysts and experts crawled out from beneath their desks and realised this the USD started to strengthen in style (Over 100 points higher).\r\n\r\nWell over, +100 pip moves with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nThe usual suspects crawled out from under rocks to claim that the FED’s rate rise in December is possibility back on. FFS, HMOG, FGS, and JM&amp;J… we are in the middle of summer. Given the fact we have a clown in the White House, I would not be giving forward guidance on a damn thing more than a few hours ahead never mind a few months. I suppose these flutes are not in any way accountable for their predictions and they mostly have no skin in the game, so who cares what they say. In my opinion, this is one reason why CNBC ratings are falling faster than the cable at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe only person to listen to about FED activity in my opinion is Janet Yellen. Ignore the noise.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9820\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017-1024x888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"888\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Those awfully nice chaps at the RBNZ led by Governor Graeme “the dealer” Wheeler has my top pick of the week this week.As I type this, the memorandum will already be circulating at the RBNZ deciding on the choice of wine for this week’s Press Conference and whether to go for cheese or pate. All the local corporate hospitality companies have been moved from orange to red alert to ensure sufficient stemware is on hand. No swigging from the bottles at the RBNZ.On a more serious note...\r\n\r\nThe jobs data last week was a surprising miss. The Kiwi dollar back up at NZD/USD 0.7500 must have had Wheeler pissing conkers. Many traders / analysts / experts? had the NZD/USD trading at 0.7800 testing the May 2015 levels.\r\n\r\nNobody expects a rate move from the current 1.75%. It’s all about the commentary. Will Wheeler remain neutral or will he jawbone and go dovish trying to send the NZD/USD back towards 0.7000?\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago just prior to the latest drop in the USD, the NZD was showing signs of life to move sharply higher. A spokesperson from the RBNZ said basically “so what” 75%-80% of what the NZD/USD does exchange rate wise is out of the RBNZ control.\r\n\r\nOK… let’s roll out the same flute with the NZD/USD at 0.8000. Would the response be different? As sure as eggs are eggs it would be. There would be jawboning. As soon as dairy exports are threatened the RBNZ will act and like a good central bank they want stability. I would not rule out jawboning at this meeting just to keep the markets in check.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, Wheelers rate statement and his jawboning never seem to go in tandem. It’s like he speaks with this right hand and writes with his left and neither hand knows what the other hand has done or is doing.\r\n\r\nIt all adds together to give us a news event to follow with interest. The Rate statement is released at 5PM EST and the Press Conference takes place at 6PM EST this Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: PPi and CPi data is released this week. Given that the FED is off its normalization route at the moment (even with the better than expected NFP data). These news items may not have the usual effect on markets other than for 30 minutes or so after the data is released. The FED change and the summer may play a combined role here. Nevertheless, we should be aware of the results.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9821\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017-1024x845.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"845\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.1: YOUR BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:</u>\r\n\r\nI am obviously biased in this section;\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, it is not just about market commentaries and suggested trade set ups. I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different from other providers in the Forex Market.\r\nHow have I created differentiation?\r\n\r\nI am a full-time Forex Trader of over 9 years.\r\nI trade my trades.\r\nI have SKIN in the game.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – not all service providers are traders. </strong>\r\n\r\nAll my suggested trades are communicated via Twitter through a secure / closed account and confirmed with more back up data for my trades through email. I tell you when I am getting in and I advise you if I am getting out. If you want to copy me, I let you know what I am doing, when I am doing it.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – Real time trading (24 x 5), regardless of time zone</strong>\r\n\r\nI am NOT an educator. I am a trader first and foremost, but I can help many traders become better at what they do.\r\nForex Trading is repetition and to a large extent it is a daily routine and many times it is quite boring.\r\nTechnical trading of patterns, previous support and resistance levels, Pivot points and Fibonacci levels, they all work. I feel that my successes are based these indicators being used alongside fundamentals. If pushed, I would say that I am a fundamental trader. However, fundamentals alone are not good enough in my opinion. They will eventually work but requires very, very deep pockets. It is the combination of using fundamentals and technical analysis combined that is a winning formula; plus obviously identifying high probability trade set ups.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I live for my trades and pass this belief to subscribers</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI offer serious traders additional support such as “one-on-one” coaching: -\r\n\r\nIdentifying Chart Patterns\r\nWhat do candlestick patterns mean?\r\nWhat do single candlesticks signify?\r\nHow do I identify high probability trades?\r\nHow to Manage RISK?\r\nHow to POSITION SIZE effectively?\r\nEffective Account Management and\r\nHow to achieve Market longevity.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I want to help you achieve a Trading success</strong>\r\n\r\nI provide Market Commentary – but only when there is something important to communicate about the markets or something that is on my mind to say.\r\nI tell it how it is from my perspective. I do my best to straight talking in every situation.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU - I remove the noise remain informative and focused</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive a “FULL VERSION” of this blog that includes sections on: -\r\nMy Market Trading Review (PREMIUM SERVICE progress)\r\nTechnical views plus my fundamental opinions and thoughts moved forward\r\nMarket Sentiment analysis\r\nCore Trades and Core Positions analysis\r\nA review of current LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – It’s open, honest, straight to the point and concise</strong>\r\n\r\nAnnual (Platinum) Subscribers receive, (if they want it) a personal monthly review via SKYPE or FaceTime of the PREMIUM SERVICE trades, an overview of the markets and my FUNDAMENTAL views / ideas moving forward.<strong>\r\nBENEFIT FOR YOU – I welcome interaction it feeds success</strong>\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs.\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 70% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +691 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,906 net pips\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.2.1: SUBSCRIBING NOW…  HAS BENEFITS:</u>\r\n\r\nEven though I am not producing a “DRIVE THRU” blog for the next three weeks, my subscription periods of 10, 20 or 40 weeks are based around the DRIVE THRU posts.\r\n\r\nTherefore subscribing now really means that your subscription does not start until 3rd September, three weeks’ time. However, between now and them, I am still trading therefore suggested set ups and twitter, email, in fact all communication is open.\r\n\r\nTherefore: -\r\n\r\nA 10-week CAD$500.00 subscription starts 3rd September and would complete on 12th November 2017.\r\n\r\nA 20-week CAD$800.00 subscription would start 3rd September and would complete on 10th February 2018.\r\n\r\nA 40-week CAD$1,250.00 Platinum subscription would start 3rd September and complete on 30th June 2018.\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:</u>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nWHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWith a title like that it sounds like I have an end of the world type of prediction to follow… you are safe!\r\n\r\nWe are now into the sleepy summer. There are some risks, most of them are geopolitical.\r\n\r\nI have in the main over recent weeks been looking forward predicting a new world… CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE, RE-STRUCTURE, RE-ALIGNMENT of the markets and I still believe we are in the throes of this happening despite the recent 72 hours or so in the Forex Market.\r\n\r\nLet’s recap what happened in the immediate past: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Mark Carney (BOE, Governor), finally came out and said what needed to be said to put the damn bulls back in their boxes for at least this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>We had a blowout NFP number.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThat’s nothing earth shattering. Does the above change my thoughts and views that I have had for the past month or so?\r\n\r\nAbsolutely not; I was bearish and shorting the cable long before “Super Thursday”.\r\n\r\nDid I predict a good NFP?\r\n\r\nI don\'t do predictions and I doubt even David Copperfield or Penn &amp; Teller could magic up an accurate NFP number.\r\n\r\nWe are in transition.\r\n\r\nFrom this Monday I am on 50% leave for the summer until the 1st September. So, what is next?\r\n\r\nOver the next few weeks the big Forex event could be the Jackson Hole Symposium. Initially Mario Draghi (ECB, President) was going to use this event as the place he would talk about the timetable of events within the ECB for a return to interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nI am not so certain that he will do this. My thought process is basically due to the fact the markets are ready to leap on the back of the single currency and send it to outer space (in forex terms) about 1.2500-1.3000 if the mood takes them. Draghi would literally poop his pants if he thought the EUR/USD would be at 1.2500 in rapid order.\r\n\r\nWe have German elections this Autumn/Fall and whilst German savers would welcome normalization, I would say that EUROZONE exporters primarily based in Germany would be buying “Andrex” and the like, in Costco quantities on a daily basis, as the increase in liquid stools could potentially reach epidemic proportions. Sales of Imodium could go through the roof (This is not investment advice).\r\n\r\nGerman elections is one good reason why Mario Draghi may just provide some B.S. at Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nMy fear is that “THE DONALD” will create the next big move. It will of course be largely “not surprising” but it will be unpredictable from a timing viewpoint, even though we know about the potential of something happening.\r\n\r\nRight now, given all the geopolitical events in play around the world the markets are complacent. All the U.S. markets are concerned about are 401K valuations and returns, stock valuations mean feck all; we are on the brink once again in my opinion… (RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT).\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>What about China being declared a currency manipulator, now that they failed to intervene effectively with North Korea?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about China getting huge trade restrictions placed upon them by the U.S.?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea dropping an ICBN on Japan… by mistake or intentionally?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea taking aim on the continental United States?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about the Russian / U.S. diplomatic expulsion tit for tat getting out of control spilling over into troubles in the “Old Soviet Block?</li>\r\n 	<li>What happens if the Iran / U.S. nuclear deal blows up?</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP has sided with Saudi Arabia over the Qatar terrorism claims. What would happen if this dispute escalates and unsettles stability in the region and subsequently OIL production?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have only highlighted US based geopolitical related issues, as usually these would affect all markets to varying degrees. The chances of something happening could be 50-50 from my perspective, but who knows. I have ignored all the investigations and enquiries that shadow the TRUMP administration, these can just flare up at any time without warning, a tweet could kick it off.\r\n\r\nSo; what am I saying?\r\n\r\nJust be on your toes if you are trading over the next three or four weeks. Many traders are away. Many traders simply do not trade the summer.\r\n\r\nMost risks are similar to what we have every summer…  geopolitical. There are more flare up zones than the ones I have listed above, but I do feel that those areas with a TRUMP involvement are more at risk.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective as I have written earlier we are in the throes of a transition. There are entry “Gifts” as I call them on the horizon. Grab them; the EUR/USD in particular, but hold with wider stops than usual to allow for the very thin trading conditions with lower liquidity than usual.\r\n\r\nTake care, back on September 3rd.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 6th August 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'WHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9854-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-08-06 06:02:35', '2017-08-06 11:02:35', '', 9854, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9854-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(9901, 1045, '2017-08-31 08:10:47', '2017-08-31 13:10:47', '[s2If current_user_is(administrator)]\r\nHello Site Administrator you can access all content :)\r\n[/s2If]\r\n[s2If current_user_is(s2member_level4)]\r\n\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-fourth first membership\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/premium-service-annual-subscription-renewal/\"><img class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-7748\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Annual-Subscription-renewal.jpg\" alt=\"Premium Service Annual Subscription-renewal\" width=\"400\" /></a>\r\n<h3>Premium Service Annual Renewal</h3>\r\n<h2 class=\"price\">CAD $1000.00</h2>\r\n<a class=\"button\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/premium-service-annual-subscription-renewal/\" type=\"button\"> Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>[/s2If]\r\n\r\n[s2If current_user_is(s2member_level2)]\r\nPlease renew your Premium Service Subscription after logging out\r\n[/s2If]\r\n[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]\r\n\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-third first membership\"><a href=\"./monthly-rollover-subscrption/\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MonthlyRolloverSubscription.jpg\" alt=\"Monthly Rollover Subscription\" width=\"400\"  class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-9897\" /></a>\r\n<h3>MONTHLY ROLLOVER SUBSCRPTION</h3>\r\n<h2 class=\"price\">CAD $10.00 for the first 10 days</h2>\r\n<h2 class=\"price\">CAD $150.00 per month</h2>\r\n<a class=\"button\" href=\"./monthly-rollover-subscrption/\" type=\"button\"> Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third membership\"><a href=\"./premium-service-20-weeks-subscription\"><img class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-7746\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/6-Months-Subscriptions.jpg\" alt=\"Premium Service 6-Months-Subscriptions\" width=\"400\" /></a>\r\n<h3>6 Months Subscription</h3>\r\n<h2 class=\"price\">CAD $800.00</h2>\r\n<a class=\"button\" href=\"./premium-service-20-weeks-subscription\" type=\"button\"> Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third membership\"><a href=\"./premium-service-40-weeks-subscription\"><img class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-7747\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Annual-Subscription.jpg\" alt=\"Premium Service Annual-Subscription\" width=\"750\" height=\"750\" /></a>\r\n<h3>Annual Subscription</h3>\r\n<h2 class=\"price\">CAD $1250.00</h2>\r\n<a class=\"button\" href=\"./premium-service-40-weeks-subscription\" type=\"button\"> Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>[/s2If]', 'Subscription Options', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '7749-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-08-31 08:10:47', '2017-08-31 13:10:47', '', 7749, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7749-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(9905, 1, '2017-08-31 09:15:23', '2017-08-31 14:15:23', '<h2>THE PREMIUM SERVICE from THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</h2>\nFLASH, RADAR, FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.\n\nIn an effort to prevent against fraud and account sharing our system restricts access to 3 IP addresses per account. Example: Home, Office and Mobile.\n\nPlease make sure with your internet service provider that you have a static IP address before signing up for the Premium Service. If you do NOT have a static IP address, please contact me so that I can explain the way around this to avoid frustration at:- sco@thepremiumservice.com\n\nPlease also note THE PREMIUM SERVICE has NO REFUND POLICY.\n\nAll subscription charges are non-refundable regardless of the beginning of a Subscriber\'s business cycle. The Subscriber is entitled to use his/her own subscription to THE PREMIUM SERVICE until the end of the billing cycle following his/her cancellation.\n\nScott Pickering\nHalifax (Nova Scotia), Canada\n<a href=\"mailto:subscriptions@thepremiumservice.com\">scott@thepremiumservice.com\n</a>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '7769-autosave-v1', '', '', '2017-08-31 09:15:23', '2017-08-31 14:15:23', '', 7769, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7769-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(9957, 1, '2017-09-02 07:00:57', '2017-09-02 12:00:57', '<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nApart from this being the first post following my short summer break from weekly blog posts, it is also “Papa was a Rollin’ stone day” (The Temptations song from way back in 1972 re-defined the opening to a song with an extended instrumental introduction. The first line of which was “It was the 3rd of September….”).\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIt is great to back in blogging mode once again and there are so many hot topics to choose from to be my first SOAPBOX article, BREXIT, the ECB, THE DONALD plus that fecking idiot in North Korea!\r\n\r\nHowever, my excitement does not stop there; to keep matters spiced up, I have made a couple of amendments to the blog format and I am also pleased to announce a lower cost entry subscription fee to enable you to join to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, in fact, you can get the first 10 days for just CAD$10.00.\r\n\r\nMoving on up…\r\n\r\nWhen the last “DOUBLE IT UP” promotion was in place, I received several emails from potential subscribers who wanted THE PREMIUM SERVICE to offer a lower cost option to subscribe. After donning my thinking cap, I have come up with something that I hope will answer most, if not all the emails received, and, I am excited with the subscription options that are now in place (see below in section 4.2).\r\n\r\nFor added excitement, I have added a short “FALL” promotion as well to coincide with my return (see below in section 4.3).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>PLEASE NOTE</u></strong>: As I am launching revised subscription plans and a new subscriber promotion for this week only the PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER version will be open on all versions “FREE NEWSLETTER” version of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU.\r\n\r\nStepping back…\r\n\r\nI have made some subtle changes to the format and running order of the blog and I have removed some content from the “FREE SUBSCRIBER” versions of this blog and added them to the “PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY SECTION”.\r\n\r\nFinally, although having been away from blogging I have still been trading through the PREMIUM SERVICE and in August I added 2,189 pips to the annual total against my objective of 10,000 pips. This addition of pips is despite my continual remarks about trading difficulties. What is really annoying is, I walked away from about 1,000 pips via early exits of trades…argh!! However, one should never complain about banking $$$ and pips, regardless of the amounts or numbers.\r\n\r\nTherefore, from the final four months of 2017 I require 3,669 additional pips to reach my annual objective. Should I achieve the 10,000-pip total it will be the 4th consecutive year to do so,  in fact since the PREMIUM SERVICE started so far it has always met its objective. This year has been a real challenge though for one reason or another.\r\n\r\nAs I continually mention to my subscribers it is a difficult marketplace from within to trade, and, frankly I do not see it changing for the remainder of this year. With all the ups and downs, uncertainties and geopolitical issues plus the DONALD’S twitter feed, the way I have adjusted my trade style and the way I look at trades has altered, if I compare 2016 with today. Back in 2014 when I thought it was hard it was really a breeze!  Basically, I am now more than happy to do a Steve Miller and “Take the money and run”, when in previous years I may have sat in trades a little longer. I do still sit in trades but frankly most of the time it is  the “Grab and Go” approach that works best. It is just NOT my usual style and it annoys me to “Grab and Go” when on occasions many pips are left on the table.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, onwards and upwards the PREMIUM SERVICE goes and I am delighted.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.\r\n\r\nFirstly, ADP Non-Farm numbers released last Wednesday were blow out numbers, they were really good at 237k versus estimates of 185k. In previous months however, the correlation between ADP and NFP numbers being somewhat in directional alignment has just not happened. ADP has been a great contrarian indicator in recent months and it did not fail to live up to its new-found reputation as NFP missed.\r\n\r\nThe USD was crushed but then the DXY climbed back as the ECB fearful of strength returning to the EUR like a Forex Tsunami next week announced that Tapering would not be ready until later this year in December.\r\n\r\nThe cynic in me sees this as timing to coincide with a possible FED rate hike. If the FED were ever going to raise again in 2017 it would be December. This should negate some of the EUR strength if the FED raised US rates around the same time as ECB tapering\r\n\r\n“Scott!” …. How can you be so cynical?\r\n\r\nCAD: GDP.\r\n\r\nReally good data. I sit in the camp that the BOC will be raising rates once again before the end of 2017. I talk about this in greater detail in section 3.2 of the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP: BREXIT.\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations appear to be along the lines of a west-end farce.\r\n\r\nI am NOT surprised, and neither should you be, we are watching career politicians at work. They only know how to attribute blame; they are simply NOT negotiators or problem solvers. This hangs over the UK like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n\r\nI remain bearish cable longer-term and I stand by everything I have written in earlier blogs about timings and FX targets. I am still to this day astonished by the continual reference to “HARD or SOFT BREXIT”. For crying out loud; there is NO SOFT BREXIT. The EUROZONE cannot afford a SOFT BREXIT because it could potentially create a CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI am now in the camp that there will be NO BREXIT deal achieved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS:\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA:\r\n\r\nKIM JONG-UN will just not “bend the knee”. Even John Snow bent the knee!! This fecker could strike Guam despite all the political pressure and efforts pushed upon him. He is as much of a loose cannon, in fact probably a lot more if the truth be known than DONALD TRUMP.\r\n\r\nUnlike OBAMA I believe that TRUMP will eventually act against North Korea. I think, and I hate to write this. it’s not “if” but “when” TRUMP acts. Commencing hostilities is a difficult decision with wide ranging ramifications especially as South Korea could come off the worst if missiles are fired in anger. At the end of the day something or someone has got to give.\r\n\r\nAfter he fired missiles over Japan just after the Asian markets open last Monday, that session and the European session that followed sold off like crazy, they were very volatile sessions. From a Forex perspective, the JPY and CHF both strengthened to key support levels taking their crosses with them. The US markets opened much lower, the DXY was at critical support, but then as usual even with the political rhetoric flying left, right and centre, US equities shrugged it all off and rebounded off the triple digit lows to end the day in the green. The “Buy the Dip” mentality always seems to be a successful trade on Wall Street regardless of what is going on. We should trade in the full knowledge that this situation could escalate and kick off very quickly at any time.\r\n\r\nIt beggars belief that with a “nutter” like JONG-UN allowed basically a free reign, the markets carry on as if its birthdays and Christmas rolled into one. JONG-UN could not give a rat’s ass if hundreds of thousands of his people starve to death on the streets. As long as, he and his million people plus strong army are fed that all that counts. This mentality is beyond traditional negotiation. History shows that and JONG-UN knows that.\r\n\r\nThis whole situation is making me think that I need to look at placing ARMAGEDDON TRADES back in the frame.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9944\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-03092017-1024x742.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"742\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Economic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD: A very busy week for Australian data. We have the RBA Rate Statement, GDP, Retail Sales and the Trade balance all scheduled to be released.\r\n\r\nIf you study bank opinions, follow twitter posts and listen to the financial media, you should be in the same place as I am with regards to the AUD currency and that is; a state of confusion.\r\n\r\nThe RBA without doubt do not want to “Rock the Boat”. Philip Lowe, RBA Governor, has stated that the RBA do not want to start raising interest rates despite a housing bubble in Sydney and to some extent in Melbourne. He favours a status quo on monetary policy, by remaining very much neutral.\r\n\r\nEconomically however, data from Australia has been on balance good, although this good data has been fueling areas of the economy that the RBA does not want to fuel. Something has got to give.\r\n\r\nFrom the AUD/USD perspective a break above the 0.8060 level would break above recent highs and would have the RBA toilets fully occupied in seconds as the committee debates the actions required to peg it back from appreciating too far.\r\n\r\n\r\nGBP: Construction and Services PMi are the highlights for UK data. As always, I am in the camp of “Construction” missing and “Services” beating the market expectations. As long as the run of mixed but on balance poorer economic data continues in the UK combined with farcical BREXIT negotiations my FUNDAMENTAL views of GBP/USD at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity remain. Coming back from vacation the hardest bit for me to do it to enter the trades I want at value prices for the GBP crosses.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers know that after NFP I was really frustrated that I could not achieve my targeted entry levels.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCAD: It’s a big, big week for the Canadian economy. Trade Balance, Jobs data and a BOC Rate Statement all feature this week. On the back of stellar GDP growth announced last week, it is heady times for the CAD.\r\n\r\nI am not expecting an interest rate hike this month but I am preparing mentally for one before the end of 2017. I see the USD/CAD moving a lot lower. Out of the initial 0.25% hike in rates the CAD strengthened again the USD by about 10 cents overall. This next rate hike by the BOC bake to 1.0% could see a further 5/6 cents in my opinion, with the USD/CAD sitting below the psychological level of 1.2000 when it’s all said and done.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR: God help the poor fecker, Mario Draghi must liken his press conferences to being put in front of an attack by the Dothraki. His recent past public appearances have been improving but basically since the last ECB Press conference and his Sintra speeches he has been trying to climb out the hole he dug for himself.\r\n\r\nBeing balanced and defending Draghi for a moment what he had to do could be likened to trying to sell ice-creams to Eskimos. He was on a hiding to nothing. The markets are seeking cheap profits and the ECB is fair game as everyone knows that the ECB accommodative program is coming to an end very soon. No matter what Draghi says or does the markets smell blood.\r\n\r\nPotentially, the EUR/USD could be at 1.2500 very quickly, indeed well before tapering starts, however in an interesting move around last Friday’s NFP release the ECB starting with Ewald Nowotny (Austrian CB Governor), started a series of planned (in my opinion) press releases about tapering and how the message needs to be delivered.\r\n\r\nI am covering this in the SOAPBOX section later in blog (Section 5).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nAUGUST TOTAL:     +2,189 net pips\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +0 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +6,331 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: NEW SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:\r\n\r\n\r\n</u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9907\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.4: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\r\n\r\nThis month’s winner of the 30 DAY PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION is: -\r\n\r\ndavid*******@gmail.com\r\n\r\nBy the time the blog is posted David should be fully in position to take advantage of his FREE subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.6: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.6.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLooking back on August, I know that I criticized the markets trading conditions a great deal. It was a hard month with lower liquidity and geopolitical news thrown in as well, nevertheless all things considered; to end the month with a net pip increase of 2,189 pips was a great feeling.\r\n\r\nBreaking down the numbers, most income and pips were almost equal between FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION trades. I am still shying away from intraday trades via FLASH and RADAR trade set ups and this is indicative of how the market is playing in my opinion. I can only trade what meets my criteria and small day trades are not it, at the moment.\r\n\r\nIt was commodity cross rates that yielded most pips last month.\r\n\r\nI posted to twitter last Friday the NZD/CAD bear flag trade, which completed as posted originally in trade FUN655 on August 1st. I took 280 pips profit from the 5 separate trades (FUN655, FUN669, FUN670, FUN684 and FUN694) on the measured move which from day one when the initial set up was posted was projected at 488 pips. About 60% of the move was achieved, but my point is the conditions were that I felt I had to cover and re-enter again. I could not just leave the trade running. It is these conditions that have increased administration time and overall research and desk time this year. This trade is typical.\r\n\r\nThe RISK MANAGEMENT approach that I am using this year to protect $$$ results in more trade activity, which means more ins and outs as the trade move progresses.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIn August, the positive / negative trade ratio was 87% / 13% - happy bloody days!\r\n\r\nYear to date the PREMIUM SERVICE is now bang on target at 75% / 25%\r\n\r\nWith regards to the straight pip by pip analysis comparison.\r\n\r\nEnd of August 2016 = 9,200 pips\r\nThis year = 6,331 pips\r\nBehind by 2,869 pips\r\n\r\nRemember though 2016 was a 13,575-pip year well over the 10,000 pips objective.\r\n\r\nI am on target to achieve 10,000 pips by the end of 2017…. God willing!!\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nI am looking at commodity cross rate pairs to generate a significant number of pips into the year end.\r\n\r\nDespite the ECB comments I do still see the EUR appreciating in value above 1.2000 towards 1.2250. I remain stubborn but with huge belief in the basic fact that the cable is going lower and by default the EUR/GBP moving higher into the year end.\r\n\r\nI was basically flat going into NFP and have added just a couple of set ups since NFP. Over the coming days I will be placing more set ups adding to CORE POSITIONS, primarily the NZD related pairs and will also be looking for GBP and CAD entries.\r\n\r\nWith regards the JPY. I have this issue. S&amp;P is at highs. Why in all  sanity isn’t the USD/JPY at 120.00, even 150.00? There lies the question and there lies my avoidance.\r\n\r\nThe CHF I am now ignoring unless we see a drop to the region of 0.9000 on the back of a North Korean situation. I believe that this will be the safe haven driver across the board.\r\n\r\nFinally, EUR/USD. Yes, I am going to look for a long entry. As previously discussed I want to get long off the trend line support at 1.1680. Failing this the 1.1711 pivot. I had hoped for blowout NFP numbers to give me a shot at these levels. We know what happened there!!\r\n\r\nSorry, I updated the RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING excel spreadsheet to take effect 1st September. Mostly just adding in some pairs that were omitted from the original version. I have placed an updated copy on the NEWSBOARD inside the subscriber area of the website.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.6.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9946\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017-690x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"690\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u><u>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.6.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9950\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9951\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9949\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9952\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9953\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9954\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9955\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n4.6.4: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nJust a brief note this week as I was virtually flat going into NFP last Friday. Usually there are a total of approximately 20 trades either LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS to review. This week I only have 4 live trades going into the weekend.\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nAs the long time subscribers will know. I have been basically long this pair for most of the past two years. It is now in breakout mode.\r\n\r\nI currently reduced size to one position pre NFP and have a limit order in place. My gut feeling is that I will be adding a BUY STOP order as well as another LIMIT ORDER based off a smaller pullback to add to the current position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD: (Live)\r\n\r\nOnly one trade in play at the moment but the Head and Shoulders measured move means more will be added moving forward. Like a bloody numpty, I missed the shorting opportunity at 0.7200 post NFP…. argh!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nI will be adding primarily BUY STOP orders to the pair. I am still in the camp that the ECB will fail in talking back the single currency and that EUR crosses will benefit.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn the melting pot for moving forward…\r\n\r\nEUR/USD and EUR Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nGBP/USD and GBP Cross Rates:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.6.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9948\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-03092017-914x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"914\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9947\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-03092017-867x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"867\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nDRAGHI GETTING PREPARED FOR THE DOTHRAKI </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThe one part of writing this blog that I really look forward to is this section Within “THE SOAPBOX” I can basically write about anything that is on my mind that I consider could be of interest directly or indirectly to trading currencies.\r\n\r\nHaving had a few weeks off in the summer, I am back and raring to go. If only the same could be said of “God love him”, Mario Draghi as he prepares this week for the ECB Interest Rate announcement and Press Conference that follows.\r\n\r\nHe is on a hiding to nothing. The ECB are scared shitless about the single currency appreciating too much, too far and too fast as it will screw up all the work undertaken so far to try and get in general terms, very, very general terms the EUROZONE economy back on track.\r\n\r\nSo far up their own arse’s the ECB have now taken to delivering pre-news updates about upcoming news events such as the ECB Press Conference this Thursday. This is an attempt to lower market expectations from what Mario Draghi will talk about and what the prepared statement will say. This desire to dampen expectations is understandable but the inevitable is going to happen.\r\n\r\nIf it looks like a pig, it\'s a fecking pig even if you dress it up in a skirt put a syrup on its head and paint lipstick on it. It’s still a pig. Draghi has his own squealer to deal with.\r\n\r\nBeing the ECB he is of course not helped by Ewald Nowotny (Austrian Central Bank, Governor), who only fans flames in these situations. He has already been on the wires stating Draghi needs effective communication and dialogue to plan the ECB tapering plans and how the ECB will return to a normalized interest rate policy. Easier to sell an ice-cream to Eskimo in my opinion.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nSo, let me keep this as punchy as I can from my own view and perspective. Draghi is f**ked. No matter what he says or does he is screwed. It is like standing in front of the Dothraki horsemen armed with a butter knife.\r\n\r\nThe good news and the bad news as I see it: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE growth is up in 2017 and will likely be revised upwards.</li>\r\n 	<li>The strong EUR could influence core inflation lower into 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>Business confidence is optimistic, in Germany at least.</li>\r\n 	<li>Elections this month in Germany and early next year in Italy.</li>\r\n 	<li>Populist fears for France and Holland never materialized.</li>\r\n 	<li>Inflation is still lagging.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhat options does Mario Draghi have?\r\n\r\nAround the time of the NFP release last Friday the ECB announced that any decision on tapering would be delayed until December. Now I am a cynical fecker at the best of times but December coincides with the time that if the FED was going to act on increasing US interest rates it would be then. This delay to the same time of the year if the FED does act, will negate some of the possible, or in my view probable EUR strength.\r\n\r\nSo, basically the ECB has bought three months during which time they hope to keep the EUR appreciation suppressed.\r\n\r\nThis is known as “KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD”\r\n\r\nThe ECB and EUROZONE are masters at this. If it were an Olympic event the EUROZONE would win gold with the ECB in the silver medal position.\r\n\r\nThe bottom end is that the ECB will have to address the issue of monetary normalization at some point in time. They cannot just exit. It will take time to do so with a timetable of events. The markets feed on the greed of that instant move and then it will settle down but the simple fact is that unless the FED are normalizing at a faster rate than the ECB the EUR/USD is going to 1.2500-1.3000 again.\r\n\r\nI think that the ECB might use inflation as the reason and perhaps extend the QE period for another 6 months but taper down €20-30bn per month. With regards to negative overnight rates, these will probably remain in place but could be tapered in the first half year of 2018.\r\n\r\nDraghi is consistent. He has always pointed out the requirement for continued monetary policy accommodation. It is the markets frothing like rabid dogs wanting movement on policy knowing that economic data is improving that has created all the euphoria. A sniff of improving conditions has the markets thirsty for blood.\r\n\r\nI know I give a brief macro level opinion, but if you want more detail there are plenty of places on the web to find the detail.\r\n\r\nOverwhelmingly, I believe the markets may buy a delay for a day but as soon as the next set of positive data hits the wires, all bets are off again. The markets have the memory and attention span of gnat.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective where am I?\r\n\r\nThe Forex market is a future pricing mechanism…. I read that in a book. The markets smell fear in the ECB and they are ready rip the single currency.\r\n\r\nYes, I want to long EUR/USD over the medium term and the fact that the ECB announced a December timeline last week has given me more time to pick my EUR./USD long entry. I like the 1.1680 entry just below 1.1711 pivot off trend line support. Will we go to that low? At the moment, there is nothing in my brain telling me that we will see a pullback to that level at the moment, so I may have to re-evaluate my thought process once again this week after the ECB Press Conference on Thursday.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the EUR crosses they are fair game at the moment which I will be looking to add to this week.\r\n\r\nTherefore, this week I see Draghi saying all is on hold until the December. I see him shunning all questions on normalization and tapering, stating wait and see as it all being evaluated.\r\n\r\nIf he veers away from the text the EUR will rocket thru 1.2000 like a hot knife thru butter. Draghi cannot show fear, uncertainty or anxiety because, should he demonstrate any of those mannerisms he will get his feet cut from beneath him and he will have crawl out on his knees to leave the Press Conference.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #145 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nSeptember 3rd, 2', 'DRAGHI GETTING PREPARED FOR THE  DOTHRAKI', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'draghi-getting-prepared-dothraki', '', '', '2017-09-02 07:00:57', '2017-09-02 12:00:57', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=9957', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
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(9958, 1, '2017-09-02 07:00:57', '2017-09-02 12:00:57', '<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nApart from this being the first post following my short summer break from weekly blog posts, it is also “Papa was a Rollin’ stone day” (The Temptations song from way back in 1972 re-defined the opening to a song with an extended instrumental introduction. The first line of which was “It was the 3rd of September….”).\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIt is great to back in blogging mode once again and there are so many hot topics to choose from to be my first SOAPBOX article, BREXIT, the ECB, THE DONALD plus that fecking idiot in North Korea!\r\n\r\nHowever, my excitement does not stop there; to keep matters spiced up, I have made a couple of amendments to the blog format and I am also pleased to announce a lower cost entry subscription fee to enable you to join to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, in fact, you can get the first 10 days for just CAD$10.00.\r\n\r\nMoving on up…\r\n\r\nWhen the last “DOUBLE IT UP” promotion was in place, I received several emails from potential subscribers who wanted THE PREMIUM SERVICE to offer a lower cost option to subscribe. After donning my thinking cap, I have come up with something that I hope will answer most, if not all the emails received, and, I am excited with the subscription options that are now in place (see below in section 4.2).\r\n\r\nFor added excitement, I have added a short “FALL” promotion as well to coincide with my return (see below in section 4.3).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>PLEASE NOTE</u></strong>: As I am launching revised subscription plans and a new subscriber promotion for this week only the PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER version will be open on all versions “FREE NEWSLETTER” version of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU.\r\n\r\nStepping back…\r\n\r\nI have made some subtle changes to the format and running order of the blog and I have removed some content from the “FREE SUBSCRIBER” versions of this blog and added them to the “PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY SECTION”.\r\n\r\nFinally, although having been away from blogging I have still been trading through the PREMIUM SERVICE and in August I added 2,189 pips to the annual total against my objective of 10,000 pips. This addition of pips is despite my continual remarks about trading difficulties. What is really annoying is, I walked away from about 1,000 pips via early exits of trades…argh!! However, one should never complain about banking $$$ and pips, regardless of the amounts or numbers.\r\n\r\nTherefore, from the final four months of 2017 I require 3,669 additional pips to reach my annual objective. Should I achieve the 10,000-pip total it will be the 4th consecutive year to do so,  in fact since the PREMIUM SERVICE started so far it has always met its objective. This year has been a real challenge though for one reason or another.\r\n\r\nAs I continually mention to my subscribers it is a difficult marketplace from within to trade, and, frankly I do not see it changing for the remainder of this year. With all the ups and downs, uncertainties and geopolitical issues plus the DONALD’S twitter feed, the way I have adjusted my trade style and the way I look at trades has altered, if I compare 2016 with today. Back in 2014 when I thought it was hard it was really a breeze!  Basically, I am now more than happy to do a Steve Miller and “Take the money and run”, when in previous years I may have sat in trades a little longer. I do still sit in trades but frankly most of the time it is  the “Grab and Go” approach that works best. It is just NOT my usual style and it annoys me to “Grab and Go” when on occasions many pips are left on the table.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, onwards and upwards the PREMIUM SERVICE goes and I am delighted.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.\r\n\r\nFirstly, ADP Non-Farm numbers released last Wednesday were blow out numbers, they were really good at 237k versus estimates of 185k. In previous months however, the correlation between ADP and NFP numbers being somewhat in directional alignment has just not happened. ADP has been a great contrarian indicator in recent months and it did not fail to live up to its new-found reputation as NFP missed.\r\n\r\nThe USD was crushed but then the DXY climbed back as the ECB fearful of strength returning to the EUR like a Forex Tsunami next week announced that Tapering would not be ready until later this year in December.\r\n\r\nThe cynic in me sees this as timing to coincide with a possible FED rate hike. If the FED were ever going to raise again in 2017 it would be December. This should negate some of the EUR strength if the FED raised US rates around the same time as ECB tapering\r\n\r\n“Scott!” …. How can you be so cynical?\r\n\r\nCAD: GDP.\r\n\r\nReally good data. I sit in the camp that the BOC will be raising rates once again before the end of 2017. I talk about this in greater detail in section 3.2 of the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP: BREXIT.\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations appear to be along the lines of a west-end farce.\r\n\r\nI am NOT surprised, and neither should you be, we are watching career politicians at work. They only know how to attribute blame; they are simply NOT negotiators or problem solvers. This hangs over the UK like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n\r\nI remain bearish cable longer-term and I stand by everything I have written in earlier blogs about timings and FX targets. I am still to this day astonished by the continual reference to “HARD or SOFT BREXIT”. For crying out loud; there is NO SOFT BREXIT. The EUROZONE cannot afford a SOFT BREXIT because it could potentially create a CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI am now in the camp that there will be NO BREXIT deal achieved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS:\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA:\r\n\r\nKIM JONG-UN will just not “bend the knee”. Even John Snow bent the knee!! This fecker could strike Guam despite all the political pressure and efforts pushed upon him. He is as much of a loose cannon, in fact probably a lot more if the truth be known than DONALD TRUMP.\r\n\r\nUnlike OBAMA I believe that TRUMP will eventually act against North Korea. I think, and I hate to write this. it’s not “if” but “when” TRUMP acts. Commencing hostilities is a difficult decision with wide ranging ramifications especially as South Korea could come off the worst if missiles are fired in anger. At the end of the day something or someone has got to give.\r\n\r\nAfter he fired missiles over Japan just after the Asian markets open last Monday, that session and the European session that followed sold off like crazy, they were very volatile sessions. From a Forex perspective, the JPY and CHF both strengthened to key support levels taking their crosses with them. The US markets opened much lower, the DXY was at critical support, but then as usual even with the political rhetoric flying left, right and centre, US equities shrugged it all off and rebounded off the triple digit lows to end the day in the green. The “Buy the Dip” mentality always seems to be a successful trade on Wall Street regardless of what is going on. We should trade in the full knowledge that this situation could escalate and kick off very quickly at any time.\r\n\r\nIt beggars belief that with a “nutter” like JONG-UN allowed basically a free reign, the markets carry on as if its birthdays and Christmas rolled into one. JONG-UN could not give a rat’s ass if hundreds of thousands of his people starve to death on the streets. As long as, he and his million people plus strong army are fed that all that counts. This mentality is beyond traditional negotiation. History shows that and JONG-UN knows that.\r\n\r\nThis whole situation is making me think that I need to look at placing ARMAGEDDON TRADES back in the frame.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9944\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-03092017-1024x742.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"742\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Economic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD: A very busy week for Australian data. We have the RBA Rate Statement, GDP, Retail Sales and the Trade balance all scheduled to be released.\r\n\r\nIf you study bank opinions, follow twitter posts and listen to the financial media, you should be in the same place as I am with regards to the AUD currency and that is; a state of confusion.\r\n\r\nThe RBA without doubt do not want to “Rock the Boat”. Philip Lowe, RBA Governor, has stated that the RBA do not want to start raising interest rates despite a housing bubble in Sydney and to some extent in Melbourne. He favours a status quo on monetary policy, by remaining very much neutral.\r\n\r\nEconomically however, data from Australia has been on balance good, although this good data has been fueling areas of the economy that the RBA does not want to fuel. Something has got to give.\r\n\r\nFrom the AUD/USD perspective a break above the 0.8060 level would break above recent highs and would have the RBA toilets fully occupied in seconds as the committee debates the actions required to peg it back from appreciating too far.\r\n\r\n\r\nGBP: Construction and Services PMi are the highlights for UK data. As always, I am in the camp of “Construction” missing and “Services” beating the market expectations. As long as the run of mixed but on balance poorer economic data continues in the UK combined with farcical BREXIT negotiations my FUNDAMENTAL views of GBP/USD at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity remain. Coming back from vacation the hardest bit for me to do it to enter the trades I want at value prices for the GBP crosses.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers know that after NFP I was really frustrated that I could not achieve my targeted entry levels.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCAD: It’s a big, big week for the Canadian economy. Trade Balance, Jobs data and a BOC Rate Statement all feature this week. On the back of stellar GDP growth announced last week, it is heady times for the CAD.\r\n\r\nI am not expecting an interest rate hike this month but I am preparing mentally for one before the end of 2017. I see the USD/CAD moving a lot lower. Out of the initial 0.25% hike in rates the CAD strengthened again the USD by about 10 cents overall. This next rate hike by the BOC bake to 1.0% could see a further 5/6 cents in my opinion, with the USD/CAD sitting below the psychological level of 1.2000 when it’s all said and done.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR: God help the poor fecker, Mario Draghi must liken his press conferences to being put in front of an attack by the Dothraki. His recent past public appearances have been improving but basically since the last ECB Press conference and his Sintra speeches he has been trying to climb out the hole he dug for himself.\r\n\r\nBeing balanced and defending Draghi for a moment what he had to do could be likened to trying to sell ice-creams to Eskimos. He was on a hiding to nothing. The markets are seeking cheap profits and the ECB is fair game as everyone knows that the ECB accommodative program is coming to an end very soon. No matter what Draghi says or does the markets smell blood.\r\n\r\nPotentially, the EUR/USD could be at 1.2500 very quickly, indeed well before tapering starts, however in an interesting move around last Friday’s NFP release the ECB starting with Ewald Nowotny (Austrian CB Governor), started a series of planned (in my opinion) press releases about tapering and how the message needs to be delivered.\r\n\r\nI am covering this in the SOAPBOX section later in blog (Section 5).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nAUGUST TOTAL:     +2,189 net pips\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +0 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +6,331 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: NEW SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:\r\n\r\n\r\n</u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9907\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.4: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\r\n\r\nThis month’s winner of the 30 DAY PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION is: -\r\n\r\ndavid*******@gmail.com\r\n\r\nBy the time the blog is posted David should be fully in position to take advantage of his FREE subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.6: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.6.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLooking back on August, I know that I criticized the markets trading conditions a great deal. It was a hard month with lower liquidity and geopolitical news thrown in as well, nevertheless all things considered; to end the month with a net pip increase of 2,189 pips was a great feeling.\r\n\r\nBreaking down the numbers, most income and pips were almost equal between FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION trades. I am still shying away from intraday trades via FLASH and RADAR trade set ups and this is indicative of how the market is playing in my opinion. I can only trade what meets my criteria and small day trades are not it, at the moment.\r\n\r\nIt was commodity cross rates that yielded most pips last month.\r\n\r\nI posted to twitter last Friday the NZD/CAD bear flag trade, which completed as posted originally in trade FUN655 on August 1st. I took 280 pips profit from the 5 separate trades (FUN655, FUN669, FUN670, FUN684 and FUN694) on the measured move which from day one when the initial set up was posted was projected at 488 pips. About 60% of the move was achieved, but my point is the conditions were that I felt I had to cover and re-enter again. I could not just leave the trade running. It is these conditions that have increased administration time and overall research and desk time this year. This trade is typical.\r\n\r\nThe RISK MANAGEMENT approach that I am using this year to protect $$$ results in more trade activity, which means more ins and outs as the trade move progresses.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIn August, the positive / negative trade ratio was 87% / 13% - happy bloody days!\r\n\r\nYear to date the PREMIUM SERVICE is now bang on target at 75% / 25%\r\n\r\nWith regards to the straight pip by pip analysis comparison.\r\n\r\nEnd of August 2016 = 9,200 pips\r\nThis year = 6,331 pips\r\nBehind by 2,869 pips\r\n\r\nRemember though 2016 was a 13,575-pip year well over the 10,000 pips objective.\r\n\r\nI am on target to achieve 10,000 pips by the end of 2017…. God willing!!\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nI am looking at commodity cross rate pairs to generate a significant number of pips into the year end.\r\n\r\nDespite the ECB comments I do still see the EUR appreciating in value above 1.2000 towards 1.2250. I remain stubborn but with huge belief in the basic fact that the cable is going lower and by default the EUR/GBP moving higher into the year end.\r\n\r\nI was basically flat going into NFP and have added just a couple of set ups since NFP. Over the coming days I will be placing more set ups adding to CORE POSITIONS, primarily the NZD related pairs and will also be looking for GBP and CAD entries.\r\n\r\nWith regards the JPY. I have this issue. S&amp;P is at highs. Why in all  sanity isn’t the USD/JPY at 120.00, even 150.00? There lies the question and there lies my avoidance.\r\n\r\nThe CHF I am now ignoring unless we see a drop to the region of 0.9000 on the back of a North Korean situation. I believe that this will be the safe haven driver across the board.\r\n\r\nFinally, EUR/USD. Yes, I am going to look for a long entry. As previously discussed I want to get long off the trend line support at 1.1680. Failing this the 1.1711 pivot. I had hoped for blowout NFP numbers to give me a shot at these levels. We know what happened there!!\r\n\r\nSorry, I updated the RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING excel spreadsheet to take effect 1st September. Mostly just adding in some pairs that were omitted from the original version. I have placed an updated copy on the NEWSBOARD inside the subscriber area of the website.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.6.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9946\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017-690x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"690\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u><u>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.6.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9950\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9951\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9949\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9952\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9953\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9954\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9955\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n4.6.4: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nJust a brief note this week as I was virtually flat going into NFP last Friday. Usually there are a total of approximately 20 trades either LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS to review. This week I only have 4 live trades going into the weekend.\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nAs the long time subscribers will know. I have been basically long this pair for most of the past two years. It is now in breakout mode.\r\n\r\nI currently reduced size to one position pre NFP and have a limit order in place. My gut feeling is that I will be adding a BUY STOP order as well as another LIMIT ORDER based off a smaller pullback to add to the current position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD: (Live)\r\n\r\nOnly one trade in play at the moment but the Head and Shoulders measured move means more will be added moving forward. Like a bloody numpty, I missed the shorting opportunity at 0.7200 post NFP…. argh!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nI will be adding primarily BUY STOP orders to the pair. I am still in the camp that the ECB will fail in talking back the single currency and that EUR crosses will benefit.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn the melting pot for moving forward…\r\n\r\nEUR/USD and EUR Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nGBP/USD and GBP Cross Rates:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.6.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9948\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-03092017-914x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"914\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9947\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-03092017-867x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"867\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nDRAGHI GETTING PREPARED FOR THE DOTHRAKI </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThe one part of writing this blog that I really look forward to is this section Within “THE SOAPBOX” I can basically write about anything that is on my mind that I consider could be of interest directly or indirectly to trading currencies.\r\n\r\nHaving had a few weeks off in the summer, I am back and raring to go. If only the same could be said of “God love him”, Mario Draghi as he prepares this week for the ECB Interest Rate announcement and Press Conference that follows.\r\n\r\nHe is on a hiding to nothing. The ECB are scared shitless about the single currency appreciating too much, too far and too fast as it will screw up all the work undertaken so far to try and get in general terms, very, very general terms the EUROZONE economy back on track.\r\n\r\nSo far up their own arse’s the ECB have now taken to delivering pre-news updates about upcoming news events such as the ECB Press Conference this Thursday. This is an attempt to lower market expectations from what Mario Draghi will talk about and what the prepared statement will say. This desire to dampen expectations is understandable but the inevitable is going to happen.\r\n\r\nIf it looks like a pig, it\'s a fecking pig even if you dress it up in a skirt put a syrup on its head and paint lipstick on it. It’s still a pig. Draghi has his own squealer to deal with.\r\n\r\nBeing the ECB he is of course not helped by Ewald Nowotny (Austrian Central Bank, Governor), who only fans flames in these situations. He has already been on the wires stating Draghi needs effective communication and dialogue to plan the ECB tapering plans and how the ECB will return to a normalized interest rate policy. Easier to sell an ice-cream to Eskimo in my opinion.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nSo, let me keep this as punchy as I can from my own view and perspective. Draghi is f**ked. No matter what he says or does he is screwed. It is like standing in front of the Dothraki horsemen armed with a butter knife.\r\n\r\nThe good news and the bad news as I see it: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE growth is up in 2017 and will likely be revised upwards.</li>\r\n 	<li>The strong EUR could influence core inflation lower into 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>Business confidence is optimistic, in Germany at least.</li>\r\n 	<li>Elections this month in Germany and early next year in Italy.</li>\r\n 	<li>Populist fears for France and Holland never materialized.</li>\r\n 	<li>Inflation is still lagging.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhat options does Mario Draghi have?\r\n\r\nAround the time of the NFP release last Friday the ECB announced that any decision on tapering would be delayed until December. Now I am a cynical fecker at the best of times but December coincides with the time that if the FED was going to act on increasing US interest rates it would be then. This delay to the same time of the year if the FED does act, will negate some of the possible, or in my view probable EUR strength.\r\n\r\nSo, basically the ECB has bought three months during which time they hope to keep the EUR appreciation suppressed.\r\n\r\nThis is known as “KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD”\r\n\r\nThe ECB and EUROZONE are masters at this. If it were an Olympic event the EUROZONE would win gold with the ECB in the silver medal position.\r\n\r\nThe bottom end is that the ECB will have to address the issue of monetary normalization at some point in time. They cannot just exit. It will take time to do so with a timetable of events. The markets feed on the greed of that instant move and then it will settle down but the simple fact is that unless the FED are normalizing at a faster rate than the ECB the EUR/USD is going to 1.2500-1.3000 again.\r\n\r\nI think that the ECB might use inflation as the reason and perhaps extend the QE period for another 6 months but taper down €20-30bn per month. With regards to negative overnight rates, these will probably remain in place but could be tapered in the first half year of 2018.\r\n\r\nDraghi is consistent. He has always pointed out the requirement for continued monetary policy accommodation. It is the markets frothing like rabid dogs wanting movement on policy knowing that economic data is improving that has created all the euphoria. A sniff of improving conditions has the markets thirsty for blood.\r\n\r\nI know I give a brief macro level opinion, but if you want more detail there are plenty of places on the web to find the detail.\r\n\r\nOverwhelmingly, I believe the markets may buy a delay for a day but as soon as the next set of positive data hits the wires, all bets are off again. The markets have the memory and attention span of gnat.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective where am I?\r\n\r\nThe Forex market is a future pricing mechanism…. I read that in a book. The markets smell fear in the ECB and they are ready rip the single currency.\r\n\r\nYes, I want to long EUR/USD over the medium term and the fact that the ECB announced a December timeline last week has given me more time to pick my EUR./USD long entry. I like the 1.1680 entry just below 1.1711 pivot off trend line support. Will we go to that low? At the moment, there is nothing in my brain telling me that we will see a pullback to that level at the moment, so I may have to re-evaluate my thought process once again this week after the ECB Press Conference on Thursday.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the EUR crosses they are fair game at the moment which I will be looking to add to this week.\r\n\r\nTherefore, this week I see Draghi saying all is on hold until the December. I see him shunning all questions on normalization and tapering, stating wait and see as it all being evaluated.\r\n\r\nIf he veers away from the text the EUR will rocket thru 1.2000 like a hot knife thru butter. Draghi cannot show fear, uncertainty or anxiety because, should he demonstrate any of those mannerisms he will get his feet cut from beneath him and he will have crawl out on his knees to leave the Press Conference.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #145 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nSeptember 3rd, 2', 'DRAGHI GETTING PREPARED FOR THE  DOTHRAKI', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9957-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-09-02 07:00:57', '2017-09-02 12:00:57', '', 9957, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9957-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(9963, 1, '2017-09-02 10:13:11', '2017-09-02 15:13:11', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nApart from this being the first post following my short summer break from weekly blog posts, it is also “Papa was a Rollin’ stone day” (The Temptations song from way back in 1972 re-defined the opening to a song with an extended instrumental introduction. The first line of which was “It was the 3rd of September….”).\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIt is great to back in blogging mode once again and there are so many hot topics to choose from to be my first SOAPBOX article, BREXIT, the ECB, THE DONALD plus that fecking idiot in North Korea!\r\n\r\nHowever, my excitement does not stop there; to keep matters spiced up, I have made a couple of amendments to the blog format and I am also pleased to announce a lower cost entry subscription fee to enable you to join to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, in fact, you can get the first 10 days for just CAD$10.00.\r\n\r\nMoving on up…\r\n\r\nWhen the last “DOUBLE IT UP” promotion was in place, I received several emails from potential subscribers who wanted THE PREMIUM SERVICE to offer a lower cost option to subscribe. After donning my thinking cap, I have come up with something that I hope will answer most, if not all the emails received, and, I am excited with the subscription options that are now in place (see section 4.2 below).\r\n\r\nFor added excitement, I have added a short “FALL” promotion as well to coincide with my return (see section 4.3 below).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>PLEASE NOTE</u></strong>: As I am launching revised subscription plans and a new subscriber promotion for this week only the PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER version will be open on all versions “FREE NEWSLETTER” version of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU.\r\n\r\nStepping back…\r\n\r\nI have made some subtle changes to the format and running order of the blog and I have removed some content from the “FREE SUBSCRIBER” versions of this blog and added them to the “PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY SECTION”.\r\n\r\nFinally, although having been away from blogging I have still been trading through the PREMIUM SERVICE and in August I added 2,189 pips to the annual total against my objective of 10,000 pips. This addition of pips is despite my continual remarks about trading difficulties. What is really annoying is, I walked away from about 1,000 pips via early exits of trades…argh!! However, one should never complain about banking $$$ and pips, regardless of the amounts or numbers.\r\n\r\nTherefore, from the final four months of 2017 I require 3,669 additional pips to reach my annual objective. Should I achieve the 10,000-pip total it will be the 4th consecutive year to do so,  in fact since the PREMIUM SERVICE started so far it has always met its objective. This year has been a real challenge though for one reason or another.\r\n\r\nAs I continually mention to my subscribers it is a difficult marketplace from within to trade, and, frankly I do not see it changing for the remainder of this year. With all the ups and downs, uncertainties and geopolitical issues plus the DONALD’S twitter feed, the way I have adjusted my trade style and the way I look at trades has altered, if I compare 2016 with today. Back in 2014 when I thought it was hard it was really a breeze!  Basically, I am now more than happy to do a Steve Miller and “Take the money and run”, when in previous years I may have sat in trades a little longer. I do still sit in trades but frankly most of the time it is  the “Grab and Go” approach that works best. It is just NOT my usual style and it annoys me to “Grab and Go” when on occasions many pips are left on the table.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, onwards and upwards the PREMIUM SERVICE goes and I am delighted.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.</strong>\r\n\r\nFirstly, ADP Non-Farm numbers released last Wednesday were blow out numbers, they were really good at 237k versus estimates of 185k. In previous months however, the correlation between ADP and NFP numbers being somewhat in directional alignment has just not happened. ADP has been a great contrarian indicator in recent months and it did not fail to live up to its new-found reputation as NFP missed.\r\n\r\nThe USD was crushed but then the DXY climbed back as the ECB fearful of strength returning to the EUR like a Forex Tsunami next week announced that Tapering would not be ready until later this year in December.\r\n\r\nThe cynic in me sees this as timing to coincide with a possible FED rate hike. If the FED were ever going to raise again in 2017 it would be December. This should negate some of the EUR strength if the FED raised US rates around the same time as ECB tapering\r\n\r\n“Scott!” …. How can you be so cynical?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>CAD: GDP.</strong>\r\n\r\nReally good data. I sit in the camp that the BOC will be raising rates once again before the end of 2017. I talk about this in greater detail in section 3.2 of the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP: BREXIT.</strong>\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations appear to be along the lines of a west-end farce.\r\n\r\nI am NOT surprised, and neither should you be, we are watching career politicians at work. They only know how to attribute blame; they are simply NOT negotiators or problem solvers. This hangs over the UK like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n\r\nI remain bearish cable longer-term and I stand by everything I have written in earlier blogs about timings and FX targets. I am still to this day astonished by the continual reference to “HARD or SOFT BREXIT”. For crying out loud; there is NO SOFT BREXIT. The EUROZONE cannot afford a SOFT BREXIT because it could potentially create a CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI am now in the camp that there will be NO BREXIT deal achieved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS:</strong>\r\n<strong>  NORTH KOREA:</strong>\r\n\r\nKIM JONG-UN will just not “bend the knee”. Even John Snow bent the knee!! This fecker could strike Guam despite all the political pressure and efforts pushed upon him. He is as much of a loose cannon, in fact probably a lot more if the truth be known than DONALD TRUMP.\r\n\r\nUnlike OBAMA I believe that TRUMP will eventually act against North Korea. I think, and I hate to write this. it’s not “if” but “when” TRUMP acts. Commencing hostilities is a difficult decision with wide ranging ramifications especially as South Korea could come off the worst if missiles are fired in anger. At the end of the day something or someone has got to give.\r\n\r\nAfter he fired missiles over Japan just after the Asian markets open last Monday, that session and the European session that followed sold off like crazy, they were very volatile sessions. From a Forex perspective, the JPY and CHF both strengthened to key support levels taking their crosses with them. The US markets opened much lower, the DXY was at critical support, but then as usual even with the political rhetoric flying left, right and centre, US equities shrugged it all off and rebounded off the triple digit lows to end the day in the green. The “Buy the Dip” mentality always seems to be a successful trade on Wall Street regardless of what is going on. We should trade in the full knowledge that this situation could escalate and kick off very quickly at any time.\r\n\r\nIt beggars belief that with a “nutter” like JONG-UN allowed basically a free reign, the markets carry on as if its birthdays and Christmas rolled into one. JONG-UN could not give a rat’s ass if hundreds of thousands of his people starve to death on the streets. As long as, he and his million people plus strong army are fed that all that counts. This mentality is beyond traditional negotiation. History shows that and JONG-UN knows that.\r\n\r\nThis whole situation is making me think that I need to look at placing ARMAGEDDON TRADES back in the frame.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9944\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-03092017-1024x742.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"742\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Economic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD</strong>: A very busy week for Australian data. We have the RBA Rate Statement, GDP, Retail Sales and the Trade balance all scheduled to be released.\r\n\r\nIf you study bank opinions, follow twitter posts and listen to the financial media, you should be in the same place as I am with regards to the AUD currency and that is; a state of confusion.\r\n\r\nThe RBA without doubt do not want to “Rock the Boat”. Philip Lowe, RBA Governor, has stated that the RBA do not want to start raising interest rates despite a housing bubble in Sydney and to some extent in Melbourne. He favours a status quo on monetary policy, by remaining very much neutral.\r\n\r\nEconomically however, data from Australia has been on balance good, although this good data has been fueling areas of the economy that the RBA does not want to fuel. Something has got to give.\r\n\r\nFrom the AUD/USD perspective a break above the 0.8060 level would break above recent highs and would have the RBA toilets fully occupied in seconds as the committee debates the actions required to peg it back from appreciating too far.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP:</strong> Construction and Services PMi are the highlights for UK data. As always, I am in the camp of “Construction” missing and “Services” beating the market expectations. As long as the run of mixed but on balance poorer economic data continues in the UK combined with farcical BREXIT negotiations my FUNDAMENTAL views of GBP/USD at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity remain. Coming back from vacation the hardest bit for me to do it to enter the trades I want at value prices for the GBP crosses.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers know that after NFP I was really frustrated that I could not achieve my targeted entry levels.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>CAD</strong>: It’s a big, big week for the Canadian economy. Trade Balance, Jobs data and a BOC Rate Statement all feature this week. On the back of stellar GDP growth announced last week, it is heady times for the CAD.\r\n\r\nI am not expecting an interest rate hike this month but I am preparing mentally for one before the end of 2017. I see the USD/CAD moving a lot lower. Out of the initial 0.25% hike in rates the CAD strengthened again the USD by about 10 cents overall. This next rate hike by the BOC bake to 1.0% could see a further 5/6 cents in my opinion, with the USD/CAD sitting below the psychological level of 1.2000 when it’s all said and done.\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR:</strong> God help the poor fecker, Mario Draghi must liken his press conferences to being put in front of an attack by the Dothraki. His recent past public appearances have been improving but basically since the last ECB Press conference and his Sintra speeches he has been trying to climb out the hole he dug for himself.\r\n\r\nBeing balanced and defending Draghi for a moment what he had to do could be likened to trying to sell ice-creams to Eskimos. He was on a hiding to nothing. The markets are seeking cheap profits and the ECB is fair game as everyone knows that the ECB accommodative program is coming to an end very soon. No matter what Draghi says or does the markets smell blood.\r\n\r\nPotentially, the EUR/USD could be at 1.2500 very quickly, indeed well before tapering starts, however in an interesting move around last Friday’s NFP release the ECB starting with Ewald Nowotny (Austrian CB Governor), started a series of planned (in my opinion) press releases about tapering and how the message needs to be delivered.\r\n\r\nI am covering this in the SOAPBOX section later in blog (Section 5).\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nAUGUST TOTAL:     +2,189 net pips\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +0 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +6,331 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: NEW SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:\r\n\r\n</u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9907\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.4: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nThis month’s winner of the 30 DAY PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION is: -\r\n\r\ndavid*******@gmail.com\r\n\r\nBy the time the blog is posted David should be fully in position to take advantage of his FREE subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLooking back on August, I know that I criticized the markets trading conditions a great deal. It was a hard month with lower liquidity and geopolitical news thrown in as well, nevertheless all things considered; to end the month with a net pip increase of 2,189 pips was a great feeling.\r\n\r\nBreaking down the numbers, most income and pips were almost equal between FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION trades. I am still shying away from intraday trades via FLASH and RADAR trade set ups and this is indicative of how the market is playing in my opinion. I can only trade what meets my criteria and small day trades are not it, at the moment.\r\n\r\nIt was commodity cross rates that yielded most pips last month.\r\n\r\nI posted to twitter last Friday the NZD/CAD bear flag trade, which completed as posted originally in trade FUN655 on August 1st. I took 280 pips profit from the 5 separate trades (FUN655, FUN669, FUN670, FUN684 and FUN694) on the measured move which from day one when the initial set up was posted was projected at 488 pips. About 60% of the move was achieved, but my point is the conditions were that I felt I had to cover and re-enter again. I could not just leave the trade running. It is these conditions that have increased administration time and overall research and desk time this year. This trade is typical.\r\n\r\nThe RISK MANAGEMENT approach that I am using this year to protect $$$ results in more trade activity, which means more ins and outs as the trade move progresses.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIn August, the positive / negative trade ratio was 87% / 13% - happy bloody days!\r\n\r\nYear to date the PREMIUM SERVICE is now bang on target at 75% / 25%\r\n\r\nWith regards to the straight pip by pip analysis comparison.\r\n\r\nEnd of August 2016 = 9,200 pips\r\nThis year = 6,331 pips\r\nBehind by 2,869 pips\r\n\r\nRemember though 2016 was a 13,575-pip year well over the 10,000 pips objective.\r\n\r\nI am on target to achieve 10,000 pips by the end of 2017…. God willing!!\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nI am looking at commodity cross rate pairs to generate a significant number of pips into the year end.\r\n\r\nDespite the ECB comments I do still see the EUR appreciating in value above 1.2000 towards 1.2250. I remain stubborn but with huge belief in the basic fact that the cable is going lower and by default the EUR/GBP moving higher into the year end.\r\n\r\nI was basically flat going into NFP and have added just a couple of set ups since NFP. Over the coming days I will be placing more set ups adding to CORE POSITIONS, primarily the NZD related pairs and will also be looking for GBP and CAD entries.\r\n\r\nWith regards the JPY. I have this issue. S&amp;P is at highs. Why in all  sanity isn’t the USD/JPY at 120.00, even 150.00? There lies the question and there lies my avoidance.\r\n\r\nThe CHF I am now ignoring unless we see a drop to the region of 0.9000 on the back of a North Korean situation. I believe that this will be the safe haven driver across the board.\r\n\r\nFinally, EUR/USD. Yes, I am going to look for a long entry. As previously discussed I want to get long off the trend line support at 1.1680. Failing this the 1.1711 pivot. I had hoped for blowout NFP numbers to give me a shot at these levels. We know what happened there!!\r\n\r\nSorry, I updated the RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING excel spreadsheet to take effect 1st September. Mostly just adding in some pairs that were omitted from the original version.\r\n\r\nI have placed an updated copy on the NEWSBOARD inside the subscriber area of the website.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.5.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9946\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017-690x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"690\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.6.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9950\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9951\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9949\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9952\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9953\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9954\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9955\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n4.5.4: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nJust a brief note this week as I was virtually flat going into NFP last Friday. Usually there are a total of approximately 20 trades either LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS to review. This week I only have 4 live trades going into the weekend.\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nAs the long time subscribers will know. I have been basically long this pair for most of the past two years. It is now in breakout mode.\r\n\r\nI currently reduced size to one position pre NFP and have a limit order in place. My gut feeling is that I will be adding a BUY STOP order as well as another LIMIT ORDER based off a smaller pullback to add to the current position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD: (Live)\r\n\r\nOnly one trade in play at the moment but the Head and Shoulders measured move means more will be added moving forward. Like a bloody numpty, I missed the shorting opportunity at 0.7200 post NFP…. argh!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nI will be adding primarily BUY STOP orders to the pair. I am still in the camp that the ECB will fail in talking back the single currency and that EUR crosses will benefit.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn the melting pot for moving forward…\r\n\r\nEUR/USD and EUR Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nGBP/USD and GBP Cross Rates:\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.5.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9948\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-03092017-914x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"914\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9947\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-03092017-867x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"867\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nDRAGHI GETTING PREPARED FOR THE DOTHRAKI </strong>\r\n\r\nThe one part of writing this blog that I really look forward to is this section Within “THE SOAPBOX” I can basically write about anything that is on my mind that I consider could be of interest directly or indirectly to trading currencies.\r\n\r\nHaving had a few weeks off in the summer, I am back and raring to go. If only the same could be said of “God love him”, Mario Draghi as he prepares this week for the ECB Interest Rate announcement and Press Conference that follows.\r\n\r\nHe is on a hiding to nothing. The ECB are scared shitless about the single currency appreciating too much, too far and too fast as it will screw up all the work undertaken so far to try and get in general terms, very, very general terms the EUROZONE economy back on track.\r\n\r\nSo far up their own arse’s the ECB have now taken to delivering pre-news updates about upcoming news events such as the ECB Press Conference this Thursday. This is an attempt to lower market expectations from what Mario Draghi will talk about and what the prepared statement will say. This desire to dampen expectations is understandable but the inevitable is going to happen.\r\n\r\nIf it looks like a pig, it\'s a fecking pig even if you dress it up in a skirt put a syrup on its head and paint lipstick on it. It’s still a pig. Draghi has his own squealer to deal with.\r\n\r\nBeing the ECB he is of course not helped by Ewald Nowotny (Austrian Central Bank, Governor), who only fans flames in these situations. He has already been on the wires stating Draghi needs effective communication and dialogue to plan the ECB tapering plans and how the ECB will return to a normalized interest rate policy. Easier to sell an ice-cream to Eskimo in my opinion.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nSo, let me keep this as punchy as I can from my own view and perspective. Draghi is f**ked. No matter what he says or does he is screwed. It is like standing in front of the Dothraki horsemen armed with a butter knife.\r\n\r\nThe good news and the bad news as I see it: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE growth is up in 2017 and will likely be revised upwards.</li>\r\n 	<li>The strong EUR could influence core inflation lower into 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>Business confidence is optimistic, in Germany at least.</li>\r\n 	<li>Elections this month in Germany and early next year in Italy.</li>\r\n 	<li>Populist fears for France and Holland never materialized.</li>\r\n 	<li>Inflation is still lagging.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhat options does Mario Draghi have?\r\n\r\nAround the time of the NFP release last Friday the ECB announced that any decision on tapering would be delayed until December. Now I am a cynical fecker at the best of times but December coincides with the time that if the FED was going to act on increasing US interest rates it would be then. This delay to the same time of the year if the FED does act, will negate some of the possible, or in my view probable EUR strength.\r\n\r\nSo, basically the ECB has bought three months during which time they hope to keep the EUR appreciation suppressed.\r\n\r\nThis is known as “KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD”\r\n\r\nThe ECB and EUROZONE are masters at this. If it were an Olympic event the EUROZONE would win gold with the ECB in the silver medal position.\r\n\r\nThe bottom end is that the ECB will have to address the issue of monetary normalization at some point in time. They cannot just exit. It will take time to do so with a timetable of events. The markets feed on the greed of that instant move and then it will settle down but the simple fact is that unless the FED are normalizing at a faster rate than the ECB the EUR/USD is going to 1.2500-1.3000 again.\r\n\r\nI think that the ECB might use inflation as the reason and perhaps extend the QE period for another 6 months but taper down €20-30bn per month. With regards to negative overnight rates, these will probably remain in place but could be tapered in the first half year of 2018.\r\n\r\nDraghi is consistent. He has always pointed out the requirement for continued monetary policy accommodation. It is the markets frothing like rabid dogs wanting movement on policy knowing that economic data is improving that has created all the euphoria. A sniff of improving conditions has the markets thirsty for blood.\r\n\r\nI know I give a brief macro level opinion, but if you want more detail there are plenty of places on the web to find the detail.\r\n\r\nOverwhelmingly, I believe the markets may buy a delay for a day but as soon as the next set of positive data hits the wires, all bets are off again. The markets have the memory and attention span of gnat.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective where am I?\r\n\r\nThe Forex market is a future pricing mechanism…. I read that in a book. The markets smell fear in the ECB and they are ready rip the single currency.\r\n\r\nYes, I want to long EUR/USD over the medium term and the fact that the ECB announced a December timeline last week has given me more time to pick my EUR./USD long entry. I like the 1.1680 entry just below 1.1711 pivot off trend line support. Will we go to that low? At the moment, there is nothing in my brain telling me that we will see a pullback to that level at the moment, so I may have to re-evaluate my thought process once again this week after the ECB Press Conference on Thursday.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the EUR crosses they are fair game at the moment which I will be looking to add to this week.\r\n\r\nTherefore, this week I see Draghi saying all is on hold until the December. I see him shunning all questions on normalization and tapering, stating wait and see as it all being evaluated.\r\n\r\nIf he veers away from the text the EUR will rocket thru 1.2000 like a hot knife thru butter. Draghi cannot show fear, uncertainty or anxiety because, should he demonstrate any of those mannerisms he will get his feet cut from beneath him and he will have crawl out on his knees to leave the Press Conference.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #249 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nSeptember 3rd, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'DRAGHI GETTING PREPARED FOR THE DOTHRAKI', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'draghi-getting-prepared-dothraki', '', '', '2017-09-02 10:13:11', '2017-09-02 15:13:11', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=9963', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(9964, 1, '2017-09-02 10:13:11', '2017-09-02 15:13:11', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nApart from this being the first post following my short summer break from weekly blog posts, it is also “Papa was a Rollin’ stone day” (The Temptations song from way back in 1972 re-defined the opening to a song with an extended instrumental introduction. The first line of which was “It was the 3rd of September….”).\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIt is great to back in blogging mode once again and there are so many hot topics to choose from to be my first SOAPBOX article, BREXIT, the ECB, THE DONALD plus that fecking idiot in North Korea!\r\n\r\nHowever, my excitement does not stop there; to keep matters spiced up, I have made a couple of amendments to the blog format and I am also pleased to announce a lower cost entry subscription fee to enable you to join to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, in fact, you can get the first 10 days for just CAD$10.00.\r\n\r\nMoving on up…\r\n\r\nWhen the last “DOUBLE IT UP” promotion was in place, I received several emails from potential subscribers who wanted THE PREMIUM SERVICE to offer a lower cost option to subscribe. After donning my thinking cap, I have come up with something that I hope will answer most, if not all the emails received, and, I am excited with the subscription options that are now in place (see section 4.2 below).\r\n\r\nFor added excitement, I have added a short “FALL” promotion as well to coincide with my return (see section 4.3 below).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>PLEASE NOTE</u></strong>: As I am launching revised subscription plans and a new subscriber promotion for this week only the PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER version will be open on all versions “FREE NEWSLETTER” version of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU.\r\n\r\nStepping back…\r\n\r\nI have made some subtle changes to the format and running order of the blog and I have removed some content from the “FREE SUBSCRIBER” versions of this blog and added them to the “PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY SECTION”.\r\n\r\nFinally, although having been away from blogging I have still been trading through the PREMIUM SERVICE and in August I added 2,189 pips to the annual total against my objective of 10,000 pips. This addition of pips is despite my continual remarks about trading difficulties. What is really annoying is, I walked away from about 1,000 pips via early exits of trades…argh!! However, one should never complain about banking $$$ and pips, regardless of the amounts or numbers.\r\n\r\nTherefore, from the final four months of 2017 I require 3,669 additional pips to reach my annual objective. Should I achieve the 10,000-pip total it will be the 4th consecutive year to do so,  in fact since the PREMIUM SERVICE started so far it has always met its objective. This year has been a real challenge though for one reason or another.\r\n\r\nAs I continually mention to my subscribers it is a difficult marketplace from within to trade, and, frankly I do not see it changing for the remainder of this year. With all the ups and downs, uncertainties and geopolitical issues plus the DONALD’S twitter feed, the way I have adjusted my trade style and the way I look at trades has altered, if I compare 2016 with today. Back in 2014 when I thought it was hard it was really a breeze!  Basically, I am now more than happy to do a Steve Miller and “Take the money and run”, when in previous years I may have sat in trades a little longer. I do still sit in trades but frankly most of the time it is  the “Grab and Go” approach that works best. It is just NOT my usual style and it annoys me to “Grab and Go” when on occasions many pips are left on the table.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, onwards and upwards the PREMIUM SERVICE goes and I am delighted.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.</strong>\r\n\r\nFirstly, ADP Non-Farm numbers released last Wednesday were blow out numbers, they were really good at 237k versus estimates of 185k. In previous months however, the correlation between ADP and NFP numbers being somewhat in directional alignment has just not happened. ADP has been a great contrarian indicator in recent months and it did not fail to live up to its new-found reputation as NFP missed.\r\n\r\nThe USD was crushed but then the DXY climbed back as the ECB fearful of strength returning to the EUR like a Forex Tsunami next week announced that Tapering would not be ready until later this year in December.\r\n\r\nThe cynic in me sees this as timing to coincide with a possible FED rate hike. If the FED were ever going to raise again in 2017 it would be December. This should negate some of the EUR strength if the FED raised US rates around the same time as ECB tapering\r\n\r\n“Scott!” …. How can you be so cynical?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>CAD: GDP.</strong>\r\n\r\nReally good data. I sit in the camp that the BOC will be raising rates once again before the end of 2017. I talk about this in greater detail in section 3.2 of the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP: BREXIT.</strong>\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations appear to be along the lines of a west-end farce.\r\n\r\nI am NOT surprised, and neither should you be, we are watching career politicians at work. They only know how to attribute blame; they are simply NOT negotiators or problem solvers. This hangs over the UK like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n\r\nI remain bearish cable longer-term and I stand by everything I have written in earlier blogs about timings and FX targets. I am still to this day astonished by the continual reference to “HARD or SOFT BREXIT”. For crying out loud; there is NO SOFT BREXIT. The EUROZONE cannot afford a SOFT BREXIT because it could potentially create a CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI am now in the camp that there will be NO BREXIT deal achieved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS:</strong>\r\n<strong>  NORTH KOREA:</strong>\r\n\r\nKIM JONG-UN will just not “bend the knee”. Even John Snow bent the knee!! This fecker could strike Guam despite all the political pressure and efforts pushed upon him. He is as much of a loose cannon, in fact probably a lot more if the truth be known than DONALD TRUMP.\r\n\r\nUnlike OBAMA I believe that TRUMP will eventually act against North Korea. I think, and I hate to write this. it’s not “if” but “when” TRUMP acts. Commencing hostilities is a difficult decision with wide ranging ramifications especially as South Korea could come off the worst if missiles are fired in anger. At the end of the day something or someone has got to give.\r\n\r\nAfter he fired missiles over Japan just after the Asian markets open last Monday, that session and the European session that followed sold off like crazy, they were very volatile sessions. From a Forex perspective, the JPY and CHF both strengthened to key support levels taking their crosses with them. The US markets opened much lower, the DXY was at critical support, but then as usual even with the political rhetoric flying left, right and centre, US equities shrugged it all off and rebounded off the triple digit lows to end the day in the green. The “Buy the Dip” mentality always seems to be a successful trade on Wall Street regardless of what is going on. We should trade in the full knowledge that this situation could escalate and kick off very quickly at any time.\r\n\r\nIt beggars belief that with a “nutter” like JONG-UN allowed basically a free reign, the markets carry on as if its birthdays and Christmas rolled into one. JONG-UN could not give a rat’s ass if hundreds of thousands of his people starve to death on the streets. As long as, he and his million people plus strong army are fed that all that counts. This mentality is beyond traditional negotiation. History shows that and JONG-UN knows that.\r\n\r\nThis whole situation is making me think that I need to look at placing ARMAGEDDON TRADES back in the frame.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9944\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-03092017-1024x742.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"742\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Economic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD</strong>: A very busy week for Australian data. We have the RBA Rate Statement, GDP, Retail Sales and the Trade balance all scheduled to be released.\r\n\r\nIf you study bank opinions, follow twitter posts and listen to the financial media, you should be in the same place as I am with regards to the AUD currency and that is; a state of confusion.\r\n\r\nThe RBA without doubt do not want to “Rock the Boat”. Philip Lowe, RBA Governor, has stated that the RBA do not want to start raising interest rates despite a housing bubble in Sydney and to some extent in Melbourne. He favours a status quo on monetary policy, by remaining very much neutral.\r\n\r\nEconomically however, data from Australia has been on balance good, although this good data has been fueling areas of the economy that the RBA does not want to fuel. Something has got to give.\r\n\r\nFrom the AUD/USD perspective a break above the 0.8060 level would break above recent highs and would have the RBA toilets fully occupied in seconds as the committee debates the actions required to peg it back from appreciating too far.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP:</strong> Construction and Services PMi are the highlights for UK data. As always, I am in the camp of “Construction” missing and “Services” beating the market expectations. As long as the run of mixed but on balance poorer economic data continues in the UK combined with farcical BREXIT negotiations my FUNDAMENTAL views of GBP/USD at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity remain. Coming back from vacation the hardest bit for me to do it to enter the trades I want at value prices for the GBP crosses.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers know that after NFP I was really frustrated that I could not achieve my targeted entry levels.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>CAD</strong>: It’s a big, big week for the Canadian economy. Trade Balance, Jobs data and a BOC Rate Statement all feature this week. On the back of stellar GDP growth announced last week, it is heady times for the CAD.\r\n\r\nI am not expecting an interest rate hike this month but I am preparing mentally for one before the end of 2017. I see the USD/CAD moving a lot lower. Out of the initial 0.25% hike in rates the CAD strengthened again the USD by about 10 cents overall. This next rate hike by the BOC bake to 1.0% could see a further 5/6 cents in my opinion, with the USD/CAD sitting below the psychological level of 1.2000 when it’s all said and done.\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR:</strong> God help the poor fecker, Mario Draghi must liken his press conferences to being put in front of an attack by the Dothraki. His recent past public appearances have been improving but basically since the last ECB Press conference and his Sintra speeches he has been trying to climb out the hole he dug for himself.\r\n\r\nBeing balanced and defending Draghi for a moment what he had to do could be likened to trying to sell ice-creams to Eskimos. He was on a hiding to nothing. The markets are seeking cheap profits and the ECB is fair game as everyone knows that the ECB accommodative program is coming to an end very soon. No matter what Draghi says or does the markets smell blood.\r\n\r\nPotentially, the EUR/USD could be at 1.2500 very quickly, indeed well before tapering starts, however in an interesting move around last Friday’s NFP release the ECB starting with Ewald Nowotny (Austrian CB Governor), started a series of planned (in my opinion) press releases about tapering and how the message needs to be delivered.\r\n\r\nI am covering this in the SOAPBOX section later in blog (Section 5).\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nAUGUST TOTAL:     +2,189 net pips\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +0 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +6,331 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: NEW SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:\r\n\r\n</u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9907\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.4: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nThis month’s winner of the 30 DAY PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION is: -\r\n\r\ndavid*******@gmail.com\r\n\r\nBy the time the blog is posted David should be fully in position to take advantage of his FREE subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLooking back on August, I know that I criticized the markets trading conditions a great deal. It was a hard month with lower liquidity and geopolitical news thrown in as well, nevertheless all things considered; to end the month with a net pip increase of 2,189 pips was a great feeling.\r\n\r\nBreaking down the numbers, most income and pips were almost equal between FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION trades. I am still shying away from intraday trades via FLASH and RADAR trade set ups and this is indicative of how the market is playing in my opinion. I can only trade what meets my criteria and small day trades are not it, at the moment.\r\n\r\nIt was commodity cross rates that yielded most pips last month.\r\n\r\nI posted to twitter last Friday the NZD/CAD bear flag trade, which completed as posted originally in trade FUN655 on August 1st. I took 280 pips profit from the 5 separate trades (FUN655, FUN669, FUN670, FUN684 and FUN694) on the measured move which from day one when the initial set up was posted was projected at 488 pips. About 60% of the move was achieved, but my point is the conditions were that I felt I had to cover and re-enter again. I could not just leave the trade running. It is these conditions that have increased administration time and overall research and desk time this year. This trade is typical.\r\n\r\nThe RISK MANAGEMENT approach that I am using this year to protect $$$ results in more trade activity, which means more ins and outs as the trade move progresses.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIn August, the positive / negative trade ratio was 87% / 13% - happy bloody days!\r\n\r\nYear to date the PREMIUM SERVICE is now bang on target at 75% / 25%\r\n\r\nWith regards to the straight pip by pip analysis comparison.\r\n\r\nEnd of August 2016 = 9,200 pips\r\nThis year = 6,331 pips\r\nBehind by 2,869 pips\r\n\r\nRemember though 2016 was a 13,575-pip year well over the 10,000 pips objective.\r\n\r\nI am on target to achieve 10,000 pips by the end of 2017…. God willing!!\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nI am looking at commodity cross rate pairs to generate a significant number of pips into the year end.\r\n\r\nDespite the ECB comments I do still see the EUR appreciating in value above 1.2000 towards 1.2250. I remain stubborn but with huge belief in the basic fact that the cable is going lower and by default the EUR/GBP moving higher into the year end.\r\n\r\nI was basically flat going into NFP and have added just a couple of set ups since NFP. Over the coming days I will be placing more set ups adding to CORE POSITIONS, primarily the NZD related pairs and will also be looking for GBP and CAD entries.\r\n\r\nWith regards the JPY. I have this issue. S&amp;P is at highs. Why in all  sanity isn’t the USD/JPY at 120.00, even 150.00? There lies the question and there lies my avoidance.\r\n\r\nThe CHF I am now ignoring unless we see a drop to the region of 0.9000 on the back of a North Korean situation. I believe that this will be the safe haven driver across the board.\r\n\r\nFinally, EUR/USD. Yes, I am going to look for a long entry. As previously discussed I want to get long off the trend line support at 1.1680. Failing this the 1.1711 pivot. I had hoped for blowout NFP numbers to give me a shot at these levels. We know what happened there!!\r\n\r\nSorry, I updated the RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING excel spreadsheet to take effect 1st September. Mostly just adding in some pairs that were omitted from the original version.\r\n\r\nI have placed an updated copy on the NEWSBOARD inside the subscriber area of the website.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.5.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9946\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017-690x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"690\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.6.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9950\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9951\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9949\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9952\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9953\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9954\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9955\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n4.5.4: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nJust a brief note this week as I was virtually flat going into NFP last Friday. Usually there are a total of approximately 20 trades either LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS to review. This week I only have 4 live trades going into the weekend.\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nAs the long time subscribers will know. I have been basically long this pair for most of the past two years. It is now in breakout mode.\r\n\r\nI currently reduced size to one position pre NFP and have a limit order in place. My gut feeling is that I will be adding a BUY STOP order as well as another LIMIT ORDER based off a smaller pullback to add to the current position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD: (Live)\r\n\r\nOnly one trade in play at the moment but the Head and Shoulders measured move means more will be added moving forward. Like a bloody numpty, I missed the shorting opportunity at 0.7200 post NFP…. argh!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nI will be adding primarily BUY STOP orders to the pair. I am still in the camp that the ECB will fail in talking back the single currency and that EUR crosses will benefit.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn the melting pot for moving forward…\r\n\r\nEUR/USD and EUR Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nGBP/USD and GBP Cross Rates:\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.5.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9948\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-03092017-914x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"914\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9947\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-03092017-867x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"867\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nDRAGHI GETTING PREPARED FOR THE DOTHRAKI </strong>\r\n\r\nThe one part of writing this blog that I really look forward to is this section Within “THE SOAPBOX” I can basically write about anything that is on my mind that I consider could be of interest directly or indirectly to trading currencies.\r\n\r\nHaving had a few weeks off in the summer, I am back and raring to go. If only the same could be said of “God love him”, Mario Draghi as he prepares this week for the ECB Interest Rate announcement and Press Conference that follows.\r\n\r\nHe is on a hiding to nothing. The ECB are scared shitless about the single currency appreciating too much, too far and too fast as it will screw up all the work undertaken so far to try and get in general terms, very, very general terms the EUROZONE economy back on track.\r\n\r\nSo far up their own arse’s the ECB have now taken to delivering pre-news updates about upcoming news events such as the ECB Press Conference this Thursday. This is an attempt to lower market expectations from what Mario Draghi will talk about and what the prepared statement will say. This desire to dampen expectations is understandable but the inevitable is going to happen.\r\n\r\nIf it looks like a pig, it\'s a fecking pig even if you dress it up in a skirt put a syrup on its head and paint lipstick on it. It’s still a pig. Draghi has his own squealer to deal with.\r\n\r\nBeing the ECB he is of course not helped by Ewald Nowotny (Austrian Central Bank, Governor), who only fans flames in these situations. He has already been on the wires stating Draghi needs effective communication and dialogue to plan the ECB tapering plans and how the ECB will return to a normalized interest rate policy. Easier to sell an ice-cream to Eskimo in my opinion.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nSo, let me keep this as punchy as I can from my own view and perspective. Draghi is f**ked. No matter what he says or does he is screwed. It is like standing in front of the Dothraki horsemen armed with a butter knife.\r\n\r\nThe good news and the bad news as I see it: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE growth is up in 2017 and will likely be revised upwards.</li>\r\n 	<li>The strong EUR could influence core inflation lower into 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>Business confidence is optimistic, in Germany at least.</li>\r\n 	<li>Elections this month in Germany and early next year in Italy.</li>\r\n 	<li>Populist fears for France and Holland never materialized.</li>\r\n 	<li>Inflation is still lagging.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhat options does Mario Draghi have?\r\n\r\nAround the time of the NFP release last Friday the ECB announced that any decision on tapering would be delayed until December. Now I am a cynical fecker at the best of times but December coincides with the time that if the FED was going to act on increasing US interest rates it would be then. This delay to the same time of the year if the FED does act, will negate some of the possible, or in my view probable EUR strength.\r\n\r\nSo, basically the ECB has bought three months during which time they hope to keep the EUR appreciation suppressed.\r\n\r\nThis is known as “KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD”\r\n\r\nThe ECB and EUROZONE are masters at this. If it were an Olympic event the EUROZONE would win gold with the ECB in the silver medal position.\r\n\r\nThe bottom end is that the ECB will have to address the issue of monetary normalization at some point in time. They cannot just exit. It will take time to do so with a timetable of events. The markets feed on the greed of that instant move and then it will settle down but the simple fact is that unless the FED are normalizing at a faster rate than the ECB the EUR/USD is going to 1.2500-1.3000 again.\r\n\r\nI think that the ECB might use inflation as the reason and perhaps extend the QE period for another 6 months but taper down €20-30bn per month. With regards to negative overnight rates, these will probably remain in place but could be tapered in the first half year of 2018.\r\n\r\nDraghi is consistent. He has always pointed out the requirement for continued monetary policy accommodation. It is the markets frothing like rabid dogs wanting movement on policy knowing that economic data is improving that has created all the euphoria. A sniff of improving conditions has the markets thirsty for blood.\r\n\r\nI know I give a brief macro level opinion, but if you want more detail there are plenty of places on the web to find the detail.\r\n\r\nOverwhelmingly, I believe the markets may buy a delay for a day but as soon as the next set of positive data hits the wires, all bets are off again. The markets have the memory and attention span of gnat.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective where am I?\r\n\r\nThe Forex market is a future pricing mechanism…. I read that in a book. The markets smell fear in the ECB and they are ready rip the single currency.\r\n\r\nYes, I want to long EUR/USD over the medium term and the fact that the ECB announced a December timeline last week has given me more time to pick my EUR./USD long entry. I like the 1.1680 entry just below 1.1711 pivot off trend line support. Will we go to that low? At the moment, there is nothing in my brain telling me that we will see a pullback to that level at the moment, so I may have to re-evaluate my thought process once again this week after the ECB Press Conference on Thursday.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the EUR crosses they are fair game at the moment which I will be looking to add to this week.\r\n\r\nTherefore, this week I see Draghi saying all is on hold until the December. I see him shunning all questions on normalization and tapering, stating wait and see as it all being evaluated.\r\n\r\nIf he veers away from the text the EUR will rocket thru 1.2000 like a hot knife thru butter. Draghi cannot show fear, uncertainty or anxiety because, should he demonstrate any of those mannerisms he will get his feet cut from beneath him and he will have crawl out on his knees to leave the Press Conference.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #249 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nSeptember 3rd, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'DRAGHI GETTING PREPARED FOR THE DOTHRAKI', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9963-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-09-02 10:13:11', '2017-09-02 15:13:11', '', 9963, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9963-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(9987, 1, '2017-09-09 06:55:31', '2017-09-09 11:55:31', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nA nice start back to full-time trading.\r\n\r\nA great first week back with +325 pips being banked. What is annoying is that I let over 150 pips or so fall through my fingers…argh!!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nGeopolitical themes still rule like an iron fist hovering over the markets. Kim Jong-Un has still not bent the knee, although “THE DONALD” has wound back his rhetoric thank God. Speaking last week after visiting the devastation caused by “HARVEY” he appears to have pushed China to act to give North Korea a good slapping.\r\n\r\nTwo visits into Texas, however, I am not sure we will see “THE DONALD” down in Florida for a while at least until after the winds of hurricane “IRMA” have died down and moved off to sea. Could you imagine the cost of the US Navy trying to locate his syrup somewhere in the Atlantic?\r\n\r\nJoking aside and not ignoring the tragic human costs of these storms, the financial cost coupled with basic turmoil within the TRUMP administration, the lack of relationship between the White House and Republicans and now deals being done between the White House and the Democrats feed a giant WTF in <strong>BOLD</strong> font size 144.\r\n\r\nDo we have a “FREELANCE” presidency in the U.S.?\r\n\r\nThink about it.\r\n\r\nThe Republicans in Washington have been in opposition for 8 years. They control both houses of legislature, yet they so in dispute with each other they cannot organize themselves to pass a single election promised piece of law. Republicans appear to be nothing more than self-serving career politicians that cannot unite on a single policy and they have control of both houses… they could really motor on.\r\n\r\nThe Democrats are not much better. Still whining on about losing the election to TRUMP. They have adopted a policy of non- agreement, zero partisanship. They have not sought out a leader to challenge at the next election. All they do is moan TRUMP this and TRUMP that. When the next election comes around they will have no one effective to stand because of their blinkered approach on disruption rather than being solution focused. I see this all-over Facebook and Twitter. Nothing has been learned since the Hillary Clinton elitist approach near the end of the 2016 campaign was poo-pooed by the unsullied.\r\n\r\nSo, TRUMP’S move to by-pass the Republican shambles and do a deal with the Democrats over linking the debt ceiling to the Hurricane costs was either a brilliant strategic manoeuvre and a clear demonstration of his will to get things done and by-pass the party machines, or, it was a nail in the coffin for all his election promises ever being fulfilled.\r\n\r\nWhat it has done in my opinion is solidify his base support. It shows a clear desire to get stuff done.\r\n\r\nWill this be the first of many such moves?\r\n\r\nThe American system encourages dysfunctionality and that it basically what we have seen since 9-11 in American politics. Watch this space.\r\n\r\nInteresting news…\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s deputy at the FED, Stanley Fischer is stepping down next month for personal reasons. If Yellen decides enough is enough and does not carry on next January, we could have a new look FED in place…. a TRUMP FED.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are mixed for the markets, could this mean any year end hike is off based upon the fact the “old guard” would step aside and let the “New kids on the block” decide upon future policy? This point will no doubt be debated heavily in the coming weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>EUR: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE. </u>\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, God love the poor fecker… He tried his best with a straight face to try and convince the markets that he could sell them a DOVISH MONETARY POLICY STANCE, whilst at the same time PURSUE A TIGHTER MONETARY POLICY… yup, good luck with that. The ECB Press Conference was billed as being a circus act and Barnum’s and Billy Smart’s would have been delighted as it ticked all the boxes.\r\n\r\nSo, what were the takeaways from Draghi?\r\n\r\nQE to run at €60B per month until December meeting or beyond if required.\r\nEconomic outlook broadly unchanged.\r\nExpansion solid. Broad-based.\r\nFX volatility is a source of uncertainty and requires monitoring.\r\nExpansion not yet translated in Inflation trend.\r\nInflation modest tick-up but still subdued.\r\nSubstantial accommodation still needed.\r\nReady to increase QE if outlook not favourable.\r\n2017 GDP now at 2.2% versus 1.9% seen in June.\r\n2018 GDP unchanged at 1.8%.\r\nHeadline inflation to dip into the year end 2017.\r\nUnderlying inflation to rise gradually over the medium-term.\r\nRecovery is base for confidence that inflation will gradually rise.\r\nRecovery remains dependent on Monetary policy.\r\nConsumption good because disposable income is rising.\r\nExchange Rate not a policy target\r\nWill have to take FX into account in future policy decisions.\r\n\r\nYada, yada, yada, blah, blah and bollocks ….. believe what you want from the above list of bullets I scribed from his speech and Q&amp;A session.\r\n\r\nMost of the above points are open to interpretation to be frank with you, and, it very much depends upon which side of the fence one sits.\r\n\r\nDraghi had a job to do, which was basically put off the markets until October when more data is available and the normalization including Tapering timetable will be discussed.  The ECB has an annoying and frustrating habit of “can kicking issues down the road”. Do NOT be surprised if in October we get 50% of the story and a delay to December.\r\n\r\nIn addition, and in true ECB style, on Friday last week the day after the “circus”, lesser known Governing Council member Philip Lane, Governor of the Irish Central Bank stated the following: - “The accommodative stance will remain until convincing evidence of inflation is seen”. This could be 2018 in full as the strengthening single currency is taking inflation out of the system. Draghi and governing council want the single currency on its arse. Let me re-iterate here lies the problem facing the ECB.\r\n\r\nMeanwhile back in the real world…\r\n\r\nI need to pick a level to enter long the EUR/USD in the coming days. Draghi said / did nothing to stop me thinking 1.3000 is on the way. My big question is how will he tackle zero inflation because the strengthening single currency will cancel out inflation inside the EUROZONE, well a great deal of it anyway.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC RATE ANNOUNCEMENT and EMPLOYMENT DATA.\r\n</u>\r\nHoly Mother of God; I never thought that BOC Governor, Stephen Poloz had it in him. Two interest rate hikes back to back. The CAD interest rate now stands at 1.00%.\r\n\r\nThat took the market completely by surprise. The market is obsessed and focused on rate movement’s when there is a press conference.  The CAD was absolutely demolished by over 220 pips (USD/CAD), it bounced back across all pairs but frankly it looks doomed to a sub 1.2000 level soon.\r\n\r\nOut of the last rate increase the BOC got some $0.11 cents move lower in USD/CAD, even if they only achieve a $0.05 move this time the pair would fall to 1.1900. My goal and target is much less than this level.\r\n\r\nJust stepping sideways for a moment vis-à-vis the Canadian Jobs data. It was an overall beat, but the mix between Full and Part-time jobs was very disappointing and the USD/CAD initially weakened on the news. Basically, it remained unchanged. The 1.2000 level remains intact for now. It is however WHEN rather than IF, in my opinion, that this psychological round number will be crushed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: BREXIT and MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations appear to be STILL moving along the lines of a west-end farce.\r\n\r\nI am NOT surprised, and neither should you be, we are watching career politicians at work. They only know how to attribute blame; they are simply NOT negotiators or problem solvers. This hangs over the UK like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n\r\nThe shambles continues; last week, Theresa May must have had a late-night party with her hangers on, and some numpty must have suggested writing to the FTSE Top 100 companies to ask them to get on board with Tory plans on BREXIT…. WTF. That goes down in the history books as another seemed like a good idea at the time moments. For God’s sake give me a break, even my Labrador Ozzy has more brains than that. Makes you think… doesn\'t it?\r\n\r\nThis letter comes on the back of a piece I read on BLOOMBERG about the UK negotiators perhaps looking for time to conclude the negotiations. What can I say here that even I could be happy with from a controlled language expletive perspective?\r\n\r\nWhat a f**king load of f**king bollocks, these tossers are paid a s**t load of people’s hard earned cash to do a f**king job. They have known the f**king timetable for f**king months. It’s about time they took their heads out of their arses, grew a pair, man up and get the job done to the best of their ability and let the population decide if they are a load of ineffective wan**rs or not when the f**king negotiations are finished.  The people voted over a year ago and f**k all has been done.\r\n\r\nOne Prozac later…\r\n\r\nThis past week or so UK economic data has been very mixed. Markets being markets, experts being experts and analyst’s being analyst’, they are all looking to be “Billy’s” and pick the bottom. If you pick bottoms all you get are smelly fingers. Manufacturing Production numbers came out last Friday morning, it was a beat at 0.5% versus market expectations of 0.3%. The Cable leaped up like a salmon on the good news and this move was exacerbated by continued USD weakness.\r\n\r\nHowever, as I wrote last week despite the bounce in the GBP/USD, which in my opinion is more about USD weakness than cable strength, I remain bearish cable longer-term and I stand by everything I have written in earlier blogs about timings and FX targets. I am still to this day astonished by the continual reference to “HARD or SOFT BREXIT”. For crying out loud; there is NO SOFT BREXIT. The EUROZONE cannot afford a SOFT BREXIT because it could potentially create a CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI am STILL in the camp that there is a better than 50% probability that NO BREXIT deal will be achieved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9970\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017-1024x769.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"769\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9971\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground but nevertheless I am sure that there will be plenty of fun for those who want to get involved.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong>  Jobs data this week for the Australian Economy.  This has been a hit and miss number of late. Either a blowout or a bit weird number is produced. I am therefore on the fence here. We have seen big numbers posted for new jobs only to find that the mix of full and part time positions was skewed in favour of part-time.\r\n\r\nLast week on poor data the AUD/USD broke 0.8000 and then 0.8100. So why am I debating the response to good or bad data?\r\n\r\nBasically, the AUD looks a strong currency at the moment and a bigger upside break looks more on the cards than a move lower. This looks on the cards despite the RBA remaining neutral. I must only imagine RBA Governor Lowe is grateful he remained neutral, if he was HAWKISH I think we would be looking closer to 0.8500 at the moment given the way that the DXY has been behaving.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong>  CPi, Retail Sales, Average Earnings Index and the MPC vote with the interest rate announcement. I am in the minority, I know this, but I am still looking at the cable at 1.2000 at the end of 2017. It has spiked higher recently, however, I believe this is more of a move based from the weak USD (DXY) rather than UK economic supporting data.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is a shambolic affair. Theresa May is apparently delivering a major speech on September 21st to parliament on her timetable, negotiating timetable, successes and failures etc. This should be funnier than an episode of Frasier or The Big Bang Theory. The BREXIT successes should have me rolling about on the floor. That will be a short section of the speech if you are in anyway distracted for a second or two you may miss that bit.\r\n\r\nBack to the data dump…\r\n\r\nCPI and Retail Sales will be misses unless tourism boosts these numbers. Disposable incomes have been sharply eaten into with inflation.\r\n\r\nWages have shown signs of life of late but are still not keeping pace with inflation and I expect this to remain the case this Wednesday when the latest numbers are released. This is placing pressure on household disposable income.\r\n\r\nI have heard many rather glib comments from mainly non-UK bodies saying that with UK inflation above the 2% target a 0.25% rate hike won’t make too much of a difference. I hear and I read the comments and my immediate well thought out response is bollocks.\r\n\r\nRate hikes would be passed on at almost double the 0.25% hike onto credit cards, credit lines and overdrafts without any thought by the high-street banks. Much of the already disappearing household disposable income caused by inflation that remains will just be annihilated by an interest rate increase. In my opinion, this would be one of the biggest f**k ups ever by a Central Bank. I just don\'t see it.\r\n\r\nSo, I see Mark Carney, BOE Governor fumbling his way through a no change statement remaining vigilant and accommodative well into 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong> We enter another week in the life of a TRUMP administration. Dysfunctional Washington persists and frankly looking at the US data I am becoming less and less interested as reactions are short lived as the USD is more responsive to twitter and headline news than economic data.\r\n\r\nWe have key inflation data this week. PPi, CPi and view of the consumer via Retail Sales. I would normally say these are crucial numbers for the FED to dissect vis-à-vis Monetary Policy normalization.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts, being a cynical fecker is that the ECB and FED have done a deal to both move in December. The FED will raise again regardless and this will help the ECB from rip roaring to 1.3000 in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nWe have been given a curveball by the FED telling us that they are looking more at its Balance Sheet reduction as a priority over interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nBack to the data…\r\n\r\nAs long as, PPi and CPi are positive, I believe the markets will be happy enough. Retail Sales will have to match the last print at 0.6% as a minimum in my opinion. Anything less than these bare minimums will send the DXY crashing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +325 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +6,656 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: NEW SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9907\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u> </u><u>\r\n4.4: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n\r\nWe are now into the closing straight of 2017.\r\n\r\nSeptember has started with a few nice trades generating some nice pips and $$$, although I have left quite a few pips on the table through poor stop management or closing trades too soon. It is very frustrating, but one cannot look backwards, one must look forward towards goals and objectives.\r\n\r\nI am now in the throws of establishing two core positions with the CAD and NZD. The latter took a bit of a slapping last week as USD weakness really got stuck in. In fact, looking back through trades the NZD/USD has been a loss-making trading pair these past couple of weeks with over 200 pips lost on various trades. I still believe it is a short trade on the back of RBNZ comments. We have parliamentary elections on September 23rd and up to this date the NZD currency could be twitchy.\r\n\r\nWe should also bear in mind, our pal and a really decent chap Graeme Wheeler’s tenure as RBNZ Governor ends on September 27th. He is replaced temporarily by Grant Spencer, who is currently the Deputy Governor and Head of Financial Stability. As long as our Grant is not tea-total, the chaps at the Press Conference will love his bones!\r\n\r\nI notice that Barclays Bank has a sell order up to the election on AUD/NZD. Currently, I have 3 x Live trades and one limit order in place. This should be interesting. I see the AUD going to 0.8500 cents in the coming weeks before being pulled back from anything loftier by the RBA so I feel good being long AUD/NZD for the moment.\r\n\r\nThe cable, I am looking for 1.3300 to look at getting short. That\'s it in a nutshell. Until we get there I am not looking at GBP/USD shorts…famous last words. I believe an entry at that level represents around the best value one could get in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is a “BUY THE DIP” trade, I am just biding my time for now.<u></u>\r\n\r\n4.5.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9946\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017-690x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"690\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.5.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9971\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9981\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9982\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9980\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9983\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9984\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9985\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9986\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.4: CORE TRADES, ASSOCIATED NEWS and INSIGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nCAD/JPY – long\r\n\r\nGBP/CAD and NZD/USD – short\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD and EUR/CAD.\r\n\r\nI have documented this repeatedly. I see the USD/CAD going to 1.1700. This move should it play out should drag all the CAD related pairs with it.\r\n\r\nLast Friday, ScotiaBank released its latest batch of currency targets and thoughts vis-à-vis the markets. It has another rate hike in the mix for Q4 2017 and two more in 2018. If they were all 0.25% rate increases, that would make a grand total rate of 1.75% by the end of 2018.\r\n\r\nThat’s what you call a brave shout.\r\n\r\nIt is also a brave shout without any responsibility for being incorrect or way off the mark.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this week and have a CORE SHORT POSITION established that I can add to and take pips and $$$ from trades as the CAD strengthens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have several live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/CAD short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - A further long AUD/NZD limit order trade, a NZD/JPY limit order and 2 x EUR/NZD long limit order trades waiting in the wings.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait until the timing is good to re-enter NZD/USD short once again and establish a CORE SHORT POSITION.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE EUR</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nNothing is LIVE yet all limit orders but my goal is to start placing strategic entries across several EUR currency related pairs.\r\n\r\nCurrently, I have EUR/USD and EUR/AUD limit orders in position.\r\n<u>4.5.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9973\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-10092017-869x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"869\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9972\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-10092017-837x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"837\" height=\"1024\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nTIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, </strong><strong>MARKET STABILITY and DXY to 87.50?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThat\'s quite a lot to take in…\r\n\r\nIt seems like a life time ago, but it was in fact only July when I wrote back to back blogs about the TIPPING POINT and a market STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nAs a macro, FUNDAMENTAL thinker / trader first I am usually either ahead of the market by varying degrees or sometimes just never there at all as my thought process may never play out the way that I had originally thought for one reason or a combination of reasons.\r\n\r\nRecently, trading or attempting to trade the USD to the long side has been like trying to roll a snowball up hill. Yes, there have been opportunities but they are few and far between. Just looking at the USD Index (DXY) chart below shows that basically since “THE DONALD’S” inauguration the DXY has been on a slide lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9979\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017-1024x504.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"504\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe simple fact is that the USD could slip below the current 91.00 level of support, break through the 90.00 psychological number and then maybe take a run at 87.50.\r\n\r\nThis potential move lower sits well with the administrations ideology of a weak USD and a low interest rate policy.\r\n\r\nThe potential moves ahead with the single currency should also fuel this decline in the USD as when the ECB announces its path to interest rate normalization the EUR should strengthen creating further USD weakness.\r\n\r\nThe backdrop to all this conjecture is that Central Banks around the globe all have maintaining MARKET STABILITY as a written or in some cases an unwritten rule.\r\n\r\nThere are so many factors influencing movements in price at the moment MARKET STABILITY appears to be somewhat lost, although to his credit Mario Draghi referenced it on a few occasions last Thursday in his ECB Press Conference. The truth is the markets could not give a rat’s hairy ass about STABILITY when FEAR and GREED are dominating the process, which they are for now.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. has two impending massive natural disasters on its plate, and the threat of war from North Korea. A President who is not trusted by his alleged party of allegiance and also but not surprisingly by the opposition party that are only interested in disruption rather than making the U.S. a better place to live and work, is a recipe for continued uncertainly and total instability. The U.S. is so dysfunctional and so far up its own arse it cannot see what it is doing to itself and it is fast becoming a laughing stock for onlookers around the globe.\r\n\r\nYet, with all this going on, the U.S. stock market is close to its highs. Quite staggering and incomprehensible to myself and possibly a few others.\r\n\r\nSo where am I going?\r\n\r\nLet me get there piece by piece….\r\n\r\nI have often said to new traders something along the lines of the following: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Trading currencies is essentially routine.</li>\r\n 	<li>Routine can be boring.</li>\r\n 	<li>There are classic market alignments and correlations.</li>\r\n 	<li>First thing in the morning when I go to my screens, I check the following charts, these are my LEAD INDICATORS: - DXY, GOLD, OIL, COPPER, S&amp;P, US10YEARNOTE, USD/CAD, USD/SEK, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY. This looks labour intensive and it can be but from my perspective essential background. It does not even allow for the reading material that I go through with coffee each morning.</li>\r\n 	<li>If my alignments and correlations whether they be inter-market or inter-currency are off, I have a RED FLAG.</li>\r\n 	<li>Having completed what I call my market research I look through trading charts, at the same time as checking open trades and limit orders to verify are they still tradeable entries or not?</li>\r\n 	<li>I watch/listen to BLOOMBERG in the background on my iPAD PRO, to listen out for geopolitical news and events that could influence my trading.</li>\r\n 	<li>All this take’s about an hour, but I have found over the past 10 years of trading it works for me. I trade for the long haul. There is a market 5 days a week. I can miss a day if I do NOT like the way the market looks or performs. Why put yourself at RISK? Is not one of a trader’s key goals and objective to MANAGE RISK?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis routine is all well and good karma. However, of late it in my opinion the market has become news driven rather than economically driven. This creates a dysfunctional market where correlations do matter but tend to be skewed… RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nCurrency relationships look awkward and no longer aligned to RISK … RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nAll the research in the world means feck all.\r\n\r\nWe are very quickly approaching the TIPPING POINT I referred to back in July. We are about to see the USD drop like a lead balloon and the EUR rip higher. Just the moves lower in the USD and higher in the EUR would cause a TIPPING POINT and a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT in the FX market.\r\n\r\nNever mind what influences the Central Banks have, or believe that they have. Most of the Central Banks around the globe related to G7 countries have credibility issues with the markets. The BOE, BOJ, ECB and even the FED to some extent are classics in recent history. When the news is DOVISH / ACCOMODATIVE it’s easy to communicate. However, when turning HAWKISH as those listed have found to their detriment it is much more difficult to effectively communicate and maintain MARKET STABILITY.\r\n\r\nOnly the BOC under Stephen Poloz has delivered his promise quickly and smoothly. The BOC received so much bang for their buck out of two 0.25% rate increases. I realise it’s much easier for a small economy like Canada but it is still a G7 and G10 country.\r\n\r\nI would add the SNB under Thomas Jordan has also been relatively consistent and Philip Lowe having replaced Glenn Stevens at the RBA appears to be very clear and unambiguous with his commentary.\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nMoving to interest rate normalization around the globe will happen and the fact that U.S. is struggling for a multitude of reasons already mentioned means that at the end of this year we could have both the FED and ECB with major announcements at the same time…fluke or by design?\r\n\r\nI believe that the FED has a deal done with the ECB to raise rates in December when the ECB will announce more details about policy normalization. I think October for ECB is a “can kicking” exercise and that December will be the real deal.\r\n\r\nDecember looks primed to start the FX RE-ALIGNMENT but it will not be as volatile if both Central Banks (FED &amp; ECB) go together. December is a great month for releasing data for obvious reasons, holidays, end of year etc. and both Central Banks have back to back meetings.\r\n\r\n13th December – FOMC (FED)\r\n\r\n14th December – ECB – Press Conference in Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nThe G10 Central Bank leaders do talk to each other. I for one would NOT be surprised if a handshake over a glass of red has taken place over timings.\r\n\r\nGiven the desire and concerns over MARKET STABILITY do NOT rule out a coordinated policy announcement ahead of the dates of these meetings to announce change at the same time. It has been done before.\r\n\r\nIt could happen but maybe not.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day what would the FX world look like?\r\n\r\nI still believe that no matter what is attempted, the USD is on very rocky ground. Fundamentally I cannot see Washington kissing and making up party to party or President to either party so dysfunctionality will remain in place.\r\n\r\nFair value for the single currency even with another 0.25% on the U.S. rate must still be in the 1.3000 range, but it is not about where fair value lies it’s how it gravitates to the level that is the important consideration.\r\n\r\nAt EUR/USD at 1.3000.\r\n\r\nEUR crosses would all be elevated from current levels and the majors would be elevated and re-aligned as well as a consequence.\r\n\r\nThat is when the real fun starts.\r\n\r\nHow will the RBA and RBNZ feel when their currencies are at 0.9000 and maybe 0.8000 levels once again? Competitiveness would suffer unless it was a balanced increase across the board.\r\n\r\nIt is possible that we enter currency wars 2.0?\r\n\r\nTIPPING POINTS, RE-ALIGNMENTS both have consequences and MARKET STABILITY may suffer despite a great deal of effort and planning being introduced, the DXY at 87.50. I do not like using the phrase nailed on, but I just cant see it not happening in the coming weeks.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #146 PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER VERSION\r\nSeptember 10th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'TIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, MARKET STABILITY and DXY at 87.50?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'tipping-points-structural-re-alignments-market-stability-dxy-87-50', '', '', '2017-09-27 21:53:50', '2017-09-28 02:53:50', '', 0, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=9987', 0, 'member_posts', '', 0);
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(9988, 1, '2017-09-09 06:55:31', '2017-09-09 11:55:31', '&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nA nice start back to full-time trading.\r\n\r\nA great first week back with +325 pips being banked. What is annoying is that I let over 150 pips or so fall through my fingers…argh!!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nGeopolitical themes still rule like an iron fist hovering over the markets. Kim Jong-Un has still not bent the knee, although “THE DONALD” has wound back his rhetoric thank God. Speaking last week after visiting the devastation caused by “HARVEY” he appears to have pushed China to act to give North Korea a good slapping.\r\n\r\nTwo visits into Texas, however, I am not sure we will see “THE DONALD” down in Florida for a while at least until after the winds of hurricane “IRMA” have died down and moved off to sea. Could you imagine the cost of the US Navy trying to locate his syrup somewhere in the Atlantic?\r\n\r\nJoking aside and not ignoring the tragic human costs of these storms, the financial cost coupled with basic turmoil within the TRUMP administration, the lack of relationship between the White House and Republicans and now deals being done between the White House and the Democrats feed a giant WTF in <strong>BOLD</strong> font size 144.\r\n\r\nDo we have a “FREELANCE” presidency in the U.S.?\r\n\r\nThink about it.\r\n\r\nThe Republicans in Washington have been in opposition for 8 years. They control both houses of legislature, yet they so in dispute with each other they cannot organize themselves to pass a single election promised piece of law. Republicans appear to be nothing more than self-serving career politicians that cannot unite on a single policy and they have control of both houses… they could really motor on.\r\n\r\nThe Democrats are not much better. Still whining on about losing the election to TRUMP. They have adopted a policy of non- agreement, zero partisanship. They have not sought out a leader to challenge at the next election. All they do is moan TRUMP this and TRUMP that. When the next election comes around they will have no one effective to stand because of their blinkered approach on disruption rather than being solution focused. I see this all-over Facebook and Twitter. Nothing has been learned since the Hillary Clinton elitist approach near the end of the 2016 campaign was poo-pooed by the unsullied.\r\n\r\nSo, TRUMP’S move to by-pass the Republican shambles and do a deal with the Democrats over linking the debt ceiling to the Hurricane costs was either a brilliant strategic manoeuvre and a clear demonstration of his will to get things done and by-pass the party machines, or, it was a nail in the coffin for all his election promises ever being fulfilled.\r\n\r\nWhat it has done in my opinion is solidify his base support. It shows a clear desire to get stuff done.\r\n\r\nWill this be the first of many such moves?\r\n\r\nThe American system encourages dysfunctionality and that it basically what we have seen since 9-11 in American politics. Watch this space.\r\n\r\nInteresting news…\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s deputy at the FED, Stanley Fischer is stepping down next month for personal reasons. If Yellen decides enough is enough and does not carry on next January, we could have a new look FED in place…. a TRUMP FED.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are mixed for the markets, could this mean any year end hike is off based upon the fact the “old guard” would step aside and let the “New kids on the block” decide upon future policy? This point will no doubt be debated heavily in the coming weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>EUR: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE. </u>\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, God love the poor fecker… He tried his best with a straight face to try and convince the markets that he could sell them a DOVISH MONETARY POLICY STANCE, whilst at the same time PURSUE A TIGHTER MONETARY POLICY… yup, good luck with that. The ECB Press Conference was billed as being a circus act and Barnum’s and Billy Smart’s would have been delighted as it ticked all the boxes.\r\n\r\nSo, what were the takeaways from Draghi?\r\n\r\nQE to run at €60B per month until December meeting or beyond if required.\r\nEconomic outlook broadly unchanged.\r\nExpansion solid. Broad-based.\r\nFX volatility is a source of uncertainty and requires monitoring.\r\nExpansion not yet translated in Inflation trend.\r\nInflation modest tick-up but still subdued.\r\nSubstantial accommodation still needed.\r\nReady to increase QE if outlook not favourable.\r\n2017 GDP now at 2.2% versus 1.9% seen in June.\r\n2018 GDP unchanged at 1.8%.\r\nHeadline inflation to dip into the year end 2017.\r\nUnderlying inflation to rise gradually over the medium-term.\r\nRecovery is base for confidence that inflation will gradually rise.\r\nRecovery remains dependent on Monetary policy.\r\nConsumption good because disposable income is rising.\r\nExchange Rate not a policy target\r\nWill have to take FX into account in future policy decisions.\r\n\r\nYada, yada, yada, blah, blah and bollocks ….. believe what you want from the above list of bullets I scribed from his speech and Q&amp;A session.\r\n\r\nMost of the above points are open to interpretation to be frank with you, and, it very much depends upon which side of the fence one sits.\r\n\r\nDraghi had a job to do, which was basically put off the markets until October when more data is available and the normalization including Tapering timetable will be discussed.  The ECB has an annoying and frustrating habit of “can kicking issues down the road”. Do NOT be surprised if in October we get 50% of the story and a delay to December.\r\n\r\nIn addition, and in true ECB style, on Friday last week the day after the “circus”, lesser known Governing Council member Philip Lane, Governor of the Irish Central Bank stated the following: - “The accommodative stance will remain until convincing evidence of inflation is seen”. This could be 2018 in full as the strengthening single currency is taking inflation out of the system. Draghi and governing council want the single currency on its arse. Let me re-iterate here lies the problem facing the ECB.\r\n\r\nMeanwhile back in the real world…\r\n\r\nI need to pick a level to enter long the EUR/USD in the coming days. Draghi said / did nothing to stop me thinking 1.3000 is on the way. My big question is how will he tackle zero inflation because the strengthening single currency will cancel out inflation inside the EUROZONE, well a great deal of it anyway.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC RATE ANNOUNCEMENT and EMPLOYMENT DATA.\r\n</u>\r\nHoly Mother of God; I never thought that BOC Governor, Stephen Poloz had it in him. Two interest rate hikes back to back. The CAD interest rate now stands at 1.00%.\r\n\r\nThat took the market completely by surprise. The market is obsessed and focused on rate movement’s when there is a press conference.  The CAD was absolutely demolished by over 220 pips (USD/CAD), it bounced back across all pairs but frankly it looks doomed to a sub 1.2000 level soon.\r\n\r\nOut of the last rate increase the BOC got some $0.11 cents move lower in USD/CAD, even if they only achieve a $0.05 move this time the pair would fall to 1.1900. My goal and target is much less than this level.\r\n\r\nJust stepping sideways for a moment vis-à-vis the Canadian Jobs data. It was an overall beat, but the mix between Full and Part-time jobs was very disappointing and the USD/CAD initially weakened on the news. Basically, it remained unchanged. The 1.2000 level remains intact for now. It is however WHEN rather than IF, in my opinion, that this psychological round number will be crushed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: BREXIT and MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations appear to be STILL moving along the lines of a west-end farce.\r\n\r\nI am NOT surprised, and neither should you be, we are watching career politicians at work. They only know how to attribute blame; they are simply NOT negotiators or problem solvers. This hangs over the UK like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n\r\nThe shambles continues; last week, Theresa May must have had a late-night party with her hangers on, and some numpty must have suggested writing to the FTSE Top 100 companies to ask them to get on board with Tory plans on BREXIT…. WTF. That goes down in the history books as another seemed like a good idea at the time moments. For God’s sake give me a break, even my Labrador Ozzy has more brains than that. Makes you think… doesn\'t it?\r\n\r\nThis letter comes on the back of a piece I read on BLOOMBERG about the UK negotiators perhaps looking for time to conclude the negotiations. What can I say here that even I could be happy with from a controlled language expletive perspective?\r\n\r\nWhat a f**king load of f**king bollocks, these tossers are paid a s**t load of people’s hard earned cash to do a f**king job. They have known the f**king timetable for f**king months. It’s about time they took their heads out of their arses, grew a pair, man up and get the job done to the best of their ability and let the population decide if they are a load of ineffective wan**rs or not when the f**king negotiations are finished.  The people voted over a year ago and f**k all has been done.\r\n\r\nOne Prozac later…\r\n\r\nThis past week or so UK economic data has been very mixed. Markets being markets, experts being experts and analyst’s being analyst’, they are all looking to be “Billy’s” and pick the bottom. If you pick bottoms all you get are smelly fingers. Manufacturing Production numbers came out last Friday morning, it was a beat at 0.5% versus market expectations of 0.3%. The Cable leaped up like a salmon on the good news and this move was exacerbated by continued USD weakness.\r\n\r\nHowever, as I wrote last week despite the bounce in the GBP/USD, which in my opinion is more about USD weakness than cable strength, I remain bearish cable longer-term and I stand by everything I have written in earlier blogs about timings and FX targets. I am still to this day astonished by the continual reference to “HARD or SOFT BREXIT”. For crying out loud; there is NO SOFT BREXIT. The EUROZONE cannot afford a SOFT BREXIT because it could potentially create a CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI am STILL in the camp that there is a better than 50% probability that NO BREXIT deal will be achieved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9970\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017-1024x769.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"769\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9971\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Economic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground but nevertheless I am sure that there will be plenty of fun for those who want to get involved.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong>  Jobs data this week for the Australian Economy.  This has been a hit and miss number of late. Either a blowout or a bit weird number is produced. I am therefore on the fence here. We have seen big numbers posted for new jobs only to find that the mix of full and part time positions was skewed in favour of part-time.\r\n\r\nLast week on poor data the AUD/USD broke 0.8000 and then 0.8100. So why am I debating the response to good or bad data?\r\n\r\nBasically, the AUD looks a strong currency at the moment and a bigger upside break looks more on the cards than a move lower. This looks on the cards despite the RBA remaining neutral. I must only imagine RBA Governor Lowe is grateful he remained neutral, if he was HAWKISH I think we would be looking closer to 0.8500 at the moment given the way that the DXY has been behaving.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong>  CPi, Retail Sales, Average Earnings Index and the MPC vote with the interest rate announcement. I am in the minority, I know this, but I am still looking at the cable at 1.2000 at the end of 2017. It has spiked higher recently, however, I believe this is more of a move based from the weak USD (DXY) rather than UK economic supporting data.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is a shambolic affair. Theresa May is apparently delivering a major speech on September 21st to parliament on her timetable, negotiating timetable, successes and failures etc. This should be funnier than an episode of Frasier or The Big Bang Theory. The BREXIT successes should have me rolling about on the floor. That will be a short section of the speech if you are in anyway distracted for a second or two you may miss that bit.\r\n\r\nBack to the data dump…\r\n\r\nCPI and Retail Sales will be misses unless tourism boosts these numbers. Disposable incomes have been sharply eaten into with inflation.\r\n\r\nWages have shown signs of life of late but are still not keeping pace with inflation and I expect this to remain the case this Wednesday when the latest numbers are released. This is placing pressure on household disposable income.\r\n\r\nI have heard many rather glib comments from mainly non-UK bodies saying that with UK inflation above the 2% target a 0.25% rate hike won’t make too much of a difference. I hear and I read the comments and my immediate well thought out response is bollocks.\r\n\r\nRate hikes would be passed on at almost double the 0.25% hike onto credit cards, credit lines and overdrafts without any thought by the high-street banks. Much of the already disappearing household disposable income caused by inflation that remains will just be annihilated by an interest rate increase. In my opinion, this would be one of the biggest f**k ups ever by a Central Bank. I just don\'t see it.\r\n\r\nSo, I see Mark Carney, BOE Governor fumbling his way through a no change statement remaining vigilant and accommodative well into 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong> We enter another week in the life of a TRUMP administration. Dysfunctional Washington persists and frankly looking at the US data I am becoming less and less interested as reactions are short lived as the USD is more responsive to twitter and headline news than economic data.\r\n\r\nWe have key inflation data this week. PPi, CPi and view of the consumer via Retail Sales. I would normally say these are crucial numbers for the FED to dissect vis-à-vis Monetary Policy normalization.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts, being a cynical fecker is that the ECB and FED have done a deal to both move in December. The FED will raise again regardless and this will help the ECB from rip roaring to 1.3000 in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nWe have been given a curveball by the FED telling us that they are looking more at its Balance Sheet reduction as a priority over interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nBack to the data…\r\n\r\nAs long as, PPi and CPi are positive, I believe the markets will be happy enough. Retail Sales will have to match the last print at 0.6% as a minimum in my opinion. Anything less than these bare minimums will send the DXY crashing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +325 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +6,656 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: NEW SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9907\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n<u>4.3: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u> </u><u>\r\n4.4: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n\r\nWe are now into the closing straight of 2017.\r\n\r\nSeptember has started with a few nice trades generating some nice pips and $$$, although I have left quite a few pips on the table through poor stop management or closing trades too soon. It is very frustrating, but one cannot look backwards, one must look forward towards goals and objectives.\r\n\r\nI am now in the throws of establishing two core positions with the CAD and NZD. The latter took a bit of a slapping last week as USD weakness really got stuck in. In fact, looking back through trades the NZD/USD has been a loss-making trading pair these past couple of weeks with over 200 pips lost on various trades. I still believe it is a short trade on the back of RBNZ comments. We have parliamentary elections on September 23rd and up to this date the NZD currency could be twitchy.\r\n\r\nWe should also bear in mind, our pal and a really decent chap Graeme Wheeler’s tenure as RBNZ Governor ends on September 27th. He is replaced temporarily by Grant Spencer, who is currently the Deputy Governor and Head of Financial Stability. As long as our Grant is not tea-total, the chaps at the Press Conference will love his bones!\r\n\r\nI notice that Barclays Bank has a sell order up to the election on AUD/NZD. Currently, I have 3 x Live trades and one limit order in place. This should be interesting. I see the AUD going to 0.8500 cents in the coming weeks before being pulled back from anything loftier by the RBA so I feel good being long AUD/NZD for the moment.\r\n\r\nThe cable, I am looking for 1.3300 to look at getting short. That\'s it in a nutshell. Until we get there I am not looking at GBP/USD shorts…famous last words. I believe an entry at that level represents around the best value one could get in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is a “BUY THE DIP” trade, I am just biding my time for now.<u>\r\n\r\n4.5.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9946\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017-690x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"690\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.5.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9971\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9981\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9982\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9980\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9983\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9984\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9985\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9986\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.4: CORE TRADES, ASSOCIATED NEWS and INSIGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nCAD/JPY – long\r\n\r\nGBP/CAD and NZD/USD – short\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD and EUR/CAD.\r\n\r\nI have documented this repeatedly. I see the USD/CAD going to 1.1700. This move should it play out should drag all the CAD related pairs with it.\r\n\r\nLast Friday, ScotiaBank released its latest batch of currency targets and thoughts vis-à-vis the markets. It has another rate hike in the mix for Q4 2017 and two more in 2018. If they were all 0.25% rate increases, that would make a grand total rate of 1.75% by the end of 2018.\r\n\r\nThat’s what you call a brave shout.\r\n\r\nIt is also a brave shout without any responsibility for being incorrect or way off the mark.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this week and have a CORE SHORT POSITION established that I can add to and take pips and $$$ from trades as the CAD strengthens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/CAD short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - A further long AUD/NZD limit order trade, a NZD/JPY limit order and 2 x EUR/NZD long limit order trades waiting in the wings.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait until the timing is good to re-enter NZD/USD short once again and establish a CORE SHORT POSITION.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE EUR</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nNothing is LIVE yet all limit orders but my goal is to start placing strategic entries across several EUR currency related pairs.\r\n\r\nCurrently, I have EUR/USD and EUR/AUD limit orders in position.\r\n<u>4.5.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9973\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-10092017-869x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"869\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9972\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-10092017-837x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"837\" height=\"1024\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nTIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, </strong><strong>MARKET STABILITY and DXY to 87.50?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThat\'s quite a lot to take in…\r\n\r\nIt seems like a life time ago, but it was in fact only July when I wrote back to back blogs about the TIPPING POINT and a market STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nAs a macro, FUNDAMENTAL thinker / trader first I am usually either ahead of the market by varying degrees or sometimes just never there at all as my thought process may never play out the way that I had originally thought for one reason or a combination of reasons.\r\n\r\nRecently, trading or attempting to trade the USD to the long side has been like trying to roll a snowball up hill. Yes, there have been opportunities but they are few and far between. Just looking at the USD Index (DXY) chart below shows that basically since “THE DONALD’S” inauguration the DXY has been on a slide lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9979\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017-1024x504.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"504\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe simple fact is that the USD could slip below the current 91.00 level of support, break through the 90.00 psychological number and then maybe take a run at 87.50.\r\n\r\nThis potential move lower sits well with the administrations ideology of a weak USD and a low interest rate policy.\r\n\r\nThe potential moves ahead with the single currency should also fuel this decline in the USD as when the ECB announces its path to interest rate normalization the EUR should strengthen creating further USD weakness.\r\n\r\nThe backdrop to all this conjecture is that Central Banks around the globe all have maintaining MARKET STABILITY as a written or in some cases an unwritten rule.\r\n\r\nThere are so many factors influencing movements in price at the moment MARKET STABILITY appears to be somewhat lost, although to his credit Mario Draghi referenced it on a few occasions last Thursday in his ECB Press Conference. The truth is the markets could not give a rat’s hairy ass about STABILITY when FEAR and GREED are dominating the process, which they are for now.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. has two impending massive natural disasters on its plate, and the threat of war from North Korea. A President who is not trusted by his alleged party of allegiance and also but not surprisingly by the opposition party that are only interested in disruption rather than making the U.S. a better place to live and work, is a recipe for continued uncertainly and total instability. The U.S. is so dysfunctional and so far up its own arse it cannot see what it is doing to itself and it is fast becoming a laughing stock for onlookers around the globe.\r\n\r\nYet, with all this going on, the U.S. stock market is close to its highs. Quite staggering and incomprehensible to myself and possibly a few others.\r\n\r\nSo where am I going?\r\n\r\nLet me get there piece by piece….\r\n\r\nI have often said to new traders something along the lines of the following: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Trading currencies is essentially routine.</li>\r\n 	<li>Routine can be boring.</li>\r\n 	<li>There are classic market alignments and correlations.</li>\r\n 	<li>First thing in the morning when I go to my screens, I check the following charts, these are my LEAD INDICATORS: - DXY, GOLD, OIL, COPPER, S&amp;P, US10YEARNOTE, USD/CAD, USD/SEK, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY. This looks labour intensive and it can be but from my perspective essential background. It does not even allow for the reading material that I go through with coffee each morning.</li>\r\n 	<li>If my alignments and correlations whether they be inter-market or inter-currency are off, I have a RED FLAG.</li>\r\n 	<li>Having completed what I call my market research I look through trading charts, at the same time as checking open trades and limit orders to verify are they still tradeable entries or not?</li>\r\n 	<li>I watch/listen to BLOOMBERG in the background on my iPAD PRO, to listen out for geopolitical news and events that could influence my trading.</li>\r\n 	<li>All this take’s about an hour, but I have found over the past 10 years of trading it works for me. I trade for the long haul. There is a market 5 days a week. I can miss a day if I do NOT like the way the market looks or performs. Why put yourself at RISK? Is not one of a trader’s key goals and objective to MANAGE RISK?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis routine is all well and good karma. However, of late it in my opinion the market has become news driven rather than economically driven. This creates a dysfunctional market where correlations do matter but tend to be skewed… RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nCurrency relationships look awkward and no longer aligned to RISK … RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nAll the research in the world means feck all.\r\n\r\nWe are very quickly approaching the TIPPING POINT I referred to back in July. We are about to see the USD drop like a lead balloon and the EUR rip higher. Just the moves lower in the USD and higher in the EUR would cause a TIPPING POINT and a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT in the FX market.\r\n\r\nNever mind what influences the Central Banks have, or believe that they have. Most of the Central Banks around the globe related to G7 countries have credibility issues with the markets. The BOE, BOJ, ECB and even the FED to some extent are classics in recent history. When the news is DOVISH / ACCOMODATIVE it’s easy to communicate. However, when turning HAWKISH as those listed have found to their detriment it is much more difficult to effectively communicate and maintain MARKET STABILITY.\r\n\r\nOnly the BOC under Stephen Poloz has delivered his promise quickly and smoothly. The BOC received so much bang for their buck out of two 0.25% rate increases. I realise it’s much easier for a small economy like Canada but it is still a G7 and G10 country.\r\n\r\nI would add the SNB under Thomas Jordan has also been relatively consistent and Philip Lowe having replaced Glenn Stevens at the RBA appears to be very clear and unambiguous with his commentary.\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nMoving to interest rate normalization around the globe will happen and the fact that U.S. is struggling for a multitude of reasons already mentioned means that at the end of this year we could have both the FED and ECB with major announcements at the same time…fluke or by design?\r\n\r\nI believe that the FED has a deal done with the ECB to raise rates in December when the ECB will announce more details about policy normalization. I think October for ECB is a “can kicking” exercise and that December will be the real deal.\r\n\r\nDecember looks primed to start the FX RE-ALIGNMENT but it will not be as volatile if both Central Banks (FED &amp; ECB) go together. December is a great month for releasing data for obvious reasons, holidays, end of year etc. and both Central Banks have back to back meetings.\r\n\r\n13th December – FOMC (FED)\r\n\r\n14th December – ECB – Press Conference in Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nThe G10 Central Bank leaders do talk to each other. I for one would NOT be surprised if a handshake over a glass of red has taken place over timings.\r\n\r\nGiven the desire and concerns over MARKET STABILITY do NOT rule out a coordinated policy announcement ahead of the dates of these meetings to announce change at the same time. It has been done before.\r\n\r\nIt could happen but maybe not.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day what would the FX world look like?\r\n\r\nI still believe that no matter what is attempted, the USD is on very rocky ground. Fundamentally I cannot see Washington kissing and making up party to party or President to either party so dysfunctionality will remain in place.\r\n\r\nFair value for the single currency even with another 0.25% on the U.S. rate must still be in the 1.3000 range, but it is not about where fair value lies it’s how it gravitates to the level that is the important consideration.\r\n\r\nAt EUR/USD at 1.3000.\r\n\r\nEUR crosses would all be elevated from current levels and the majors would be elevated and re-aligned as well as a consequence.\r\n\r\nThat is when the real fun starts.\r\n\r\nHow will the RBA and RBNZ feel when their currencies are at 0.9000 and maybe 0.8000 levels once again? Competitiveness would suffer unless it was a balanced increase across the board.\r\n\r\nIt is possible that we enter currency wars 2.0?\r\n\r\nTIPPING POINTS, RE-ALIGNMENTS both have consequences and MARKET STABILITY may suffer despite a great deal of effort and planning being introduced, the DXY at 87.50. I do not like using the phrase nailed on, but I just cant see it not happening in the coming weeks.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #146 PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER VERSION\r\nSeptember 10th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'TIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, MARKET STABILITY and DXY at 87.50?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '9987-revision-v1', '', '', '2017-09-09 06:55:31', '2017-09-09 11:55:31', '', 9987, 'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9987-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
